Marc Chandler – GDP Forecast Major Reversal, Possible Market Fears & Market Moves
Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Editor of Marc To Market joins us to discuss a major revision by the Atlanta Fed, which downgraded its Q1 GDP growth forecast from over 2% to -1.5%. Marc interprets this significant change in the forecast, highlighting weak economic data and declining real personal consumption rates as key contributors to this adjustment.
With U.S. interest rates falling, Marc explains the inverse relationship seen in the bond market rally, driven by market fears and uncertainties regarding tariffs and U.S. equity markets.
He dives deep into the complexities of market expectations for Fed policy adjustments, including forecasts for multiple rate cuts by June and September. Global trade tensions are another focal point, particularly concerning the confusion around the timings and sectors affected by new tariffs. Marc elaborates on the potential impact of these tariffs on the U.S. and global economies, positing that these actions could lead to long-lasting changes in global supply chains and international relations.
We also preview major upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. Jobs data for February, Eurozone CPI reports, and the European Central Bank’s anticipated rate cuts. Finally, Marc contemplates the broader economic environment, discussing risks of a recession amid market uncertainties, debt levels, and ongoing policy changes.
Alberta implements a $200 electric vehicle tax, payable when you register your vehicle and every year you renew your registration. DT
Most people here don’t know how far advanced AI is. This weekend I watched dateline, and it took place in a small town in the US about 10 years ago (2016). The detectives had the murders DNA, but they couldn’t find the perpetrator. So, they sent a sample of a blood drop from the crime scene that wasn’t the victims into a company called Paragon. Paragon claimed they could develop a computer-generated picture of what the suspect looked like from the blood sample. Five weeks later an image of the murder suspect was sent to the police department. The image they developed was such a close likeness of the person who had committed the crime that they were identified almost immediately. Then they checked his DNA, and it was a match. Now do you see how far technology has come. DT
US spends far too much time, money and energy on crime, crime news, crime stories. Fire all those FBI agents, Elon.
Hey Guys, Ex is a little under the weather now that PDAC has started, I don’t think he would like the weather we are currently having maybe he should think about going down to Miami for spring break and do a little ogling, that would cheer him up! Hey Baby! LOL! DT 👀
Haha! Good one DT. No, we didn’t go to PDAC in Toronto, but I do like the idea of hanging in Miami better (just not for spring break – oy vey). Mines and Money just happened 2 weeks ago in Miami, and I did consider attending it, but it is diagonally the total opposite side of the country from where I live in Washington so a long travel day, and I just didn’t have the energy or interest in being at another conference so soon. They are a lot of work, tons of meetings, endless networking, being “on” for hours, and everything else in life is put on hold and building up for trying to play catchup after the event ends.
Some people were surprised I wasn’t going to PDAC, but I’ve really hit a steady stream of conferences ever since Beaver Creek in Sep, then Fort Lauderdale in Oct, New Orleans in Nov, then 2 back-to-back conferences in Vancouver in Jan, and then returning to Vancouver again for another conference in Feb. Many people going to PDAC haven’t been to a conference in 6 months (so I get the need to connect) and yet some of the companies have been to a dozen or so conferences and are on a never-ending conference tour.
It is unclear whether all the money that hundreds of these companies are shelling out on all these series of conferences are achieving a good return on the capital invested, but still… wishing everyone well in Toronto over the next few days at all the functions and frivolity that is the PDAC.
More importantly, I’m hoping we see a continued string of more M&A deals out of all those meetings between company management teams.
Those M&A deals combined with currently slumping Gold prices should make for great buys as the year unfolds. I will chart some along the way, e.g. EQX.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GHwmNhGI/
NatGas : Bullish Gartley?
NOAA Weather Mapping: https://ibb.co/b9qB5Y6
Professional forecasters are seldom right. That being said, I think 2025 will be a good year with value equities. Look at Boeing stock, BMY, pfe, IWM is going thru a correction but it will rebound. Same with gold stocks. Maybe growth stocks will lag this year but if one plays it right it could be an extremely profitable year.