John Rubino – Fundamental Factors For Gold, Gold Stocks, Royalty Companies, And Physical ETFs
John Rubino, [Follow John on his Substack https://rubino.substack.com/], joins us to discuss the fundamental factors behind the resilience of gold, the disconnect in gold stocks from the metals price action, the strengths of the royalty companies business model, and why he is even opting for accumulating various physical metals ETFs across various commodities.
John points out that gold has been holding up well all summer and into September, despite what is seasonally a weaker period of time for the precious metals. He reviews that with many gold producers cashed up and seeing very nice margins on their Q2 earnings reports, and likely to see that continue in Q3 earnings, that we may start seeing a the senior and mid-producers begin a bigger wave of merger and acquisition transactions. For now the uncertainty in the markets is keeping investors away from getting into the riskier subset of junior PM stocks. We then shifted over to the diversification and risk mitigation advantages of the royalty and streaming business model, and how those stocks fit into his portfolio. Wrapping up John outlines why he is increasingly mitigating risk in the resource stocks by positioning in the physical gold, silver, uranium, and even the new copper ETFs.
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Click here to visit the John’s Substack to keep up to date on his market and economic commentary.
Thanks for posting the Santacruz Silver chart Dan!
Yours was the only post here that even referenced the insanely positive day that the silver stocks had on Thursday. Maybe nobody holds silver stocks here any more, but for goodness sakes yesterday was a bangup day in the sector!
Ticker – Silver Producers – Daily % change on (09/12/2024)
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +19.13%
SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +16.07%
GSVR.V Guanajuato Silver Company Ltd. +14.29%
IPT.V IMPACT Silver Corp. +12.50%
AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +11.99%
GATO Gatos Silver, Inc. +11.81%
EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +11.18%
SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +10.35%
AGX.V Silver X Mining Corp. +10.26%
AYA.TO Aya Gold & Silver Inc. +9.98%
SILV SilverCrest Metals Inc. +9.31%
SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +8.82%
HL Hecla Mining Company +8.78%
MAG MAG Silver Corp. +8.74%
FSM Fortuna Mining Corp. +8.51%
BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +7.81%
SM.V Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd. +6.02%
PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +6.32%
USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation +6.03%
FRES.L Fresnillo plc +5.88%
APM.V Andean Precious Metals Corp. +5.00%
SMT.TO Sierra Metals Inc. +4.55%
ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +4.43%
GGD.TO GoGold Resources Inc. +2.65%
HOC.L Hochschild Mining plc +2.52%
Ticker – Silver Explorers and Developers – Daily % change on 09/12/2024
SDR.V Stroud Resources Ltd. +60.00%
VRR.V VR Resources Ltd. +33.3333%
DSV.TO Discovery Silver Corp. +27.59%
KS.V Klondike Silver Corp. +25.00%
NBR.V Nubian Resources Ltd. +22.2222%
EQTY.V Equity Metals Corporation +19.4444%
AAG.V Aftermath Silver Ltd. +17.9104%
APGO.V Apollo Silver Corp. +17.3913%
GGX.V GGX Gold Corp. +16.6667%
GRSL.V GR Silver Mining Ltd. +15.6250%
SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. +15.09%
SLVR.V Silver Tiger Metals Inc. +15.0000%
IVR.AX Investigator Resources Limited +14.7059%
KTN.V Kootenay Silver Inc. +14.42%
ELO.TO Eloro Resources Ltd. +12.36%
SVL.AX Silver Mines Limited +11.70%
VIPR.V Silver Viper Minerals Corp. +10.00%
HAMR.CN Silver Hammer Mining Corp. +10.00%
DEF.V Defiance Silver Corp. +9.62%
REX.V Orex Minerals Inc. +9.30%
NUAG.TO New Pacific Metals Corp. +8.2873%
MMG.V Metallic Minerals Corp. +7.89%
ABRA.V AbraSilver Resource Corp. +7.46%
TUF.V Honey Badger Silver Inc. +7.1429%
SSVR.V Summa Silver Corp. +7.0423%
BRC.V Blackrock Silver Corp. +7.0175%
BML.AX Boab Metals Limited +6.98%
OCG.V Outcrop Silver & Gold Corporation +6.82%
AZT.V Aztec Minerals Corp. +6.67%
BBB.V Brixton Metals Corporation +5.88%
ARD.AX Argent Minerals Limited +5.88%
MKR.AX Manuka Resources Limited +5.71%
SLV.CN Silver Dollar Resources Inc. +5.45%
BIG.V Hercules Metals Corp. +5.26%
CKG.V Chesapeake Gold Corp. +5.17%
DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +4.76%
VZLA.V Vizsla Silver Corp. +4.48%
KUYA.CN Kuya Silver Corporation +4.29%
TAU.V Thesis Gold Inc. +3.90%
SSV.V Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +3.64%
MSV.TO Minco Silver Corporation +3.13%
UFO.L Alien Metals Limited +2.3273%
We’ve talked about optionality to rising metals prices before, but look at that move in the largest undeveloped silver deposit out there held by Discovery Silver. I had just met with them yesterday talking about the upside torque I believed them to have and then, boom! Up over 27% in one day!
DSV.TO Discovery Silver Corp. +27.59%
That is precisely the kind of action we want to start seeing more of in the silver stocks.
KTRI, Kootenay Resources, a spin out from KTN, was up 18% yesterday too! hard to even find a chart on it, haha!
Just looking again at the double-digit gainers in the silver producers yesterday, shows that people don’t have to just be in the riskier drill-plays to get some really meaningful moves…. the silver producers offer that same kind of torque, and it always is puzzling when I talk to so many investors that don’t have ANY producers in their portfolios. (??)
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +19.13%
SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +16.07%
GSVR.V Guanajuato Silver Company Ltd. +14.29%
IPT.V IMPACT Silver Corp. +12.50%
AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +11.99%
GATO Gatos Silver, Inc. +11.81%
EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +11.18%
SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +10.35%
AGX.V Silver X Mining Corp. +10.26%
Earl Davis on BNN this morning said the fed will lower by 50 basis points at the next three meetings and Canada will lower by 50 basis points for the next two meetings at least… a race to the bottom.
I have been in the nat. gas market but am definitely rotating into silver and gold producers for what it’s worth.
John is spot on…………….DEBT……..gold going a LOT HIGHER…..
Smart phones, smart watches, and smart appliances are getting smarter that means humans are getting dumber. LOL! DT🤣😉😜
Speak for yourself
“I don’t have to think, my smart phone tells me what to do.” — Sheeple
The family income is dwindling so fast with inflation that even a man without a dollar is 99 cents better off than he once was. LOL! DT
We’ve been at the Beaver Creek conference all this week, and the tenor of the conference was much more subdued than last year, but it is so strange where gold made a new all-time high again yesterday and again today, and you’d not know it by the vibe with all the attendees or companies.
You wouldn’t know it by the comments here on the KER blog either.
Gold just tapped $2,600 in overnight trading and is currently at $2,596 this morning and it is like nobody cares…
Remember when people claimed we just need to see $1,375 break, or $1,650 get cleared, or $1921 (the old 2011 peak) break, or that if Gold just got above $2,000 that would be the spark that really lights the fire in PM stocks?
Then we heard “Well, really it needs to be $2,100 that is cleared on the daily, weekly, monthly” for the BIG move in PM stocks…. OK…. where’s that big move at…? because, check, check, check we saw all that play out a while ago now. Sure the better PM mining stocks did respond some, but not like people projected they would.
Then we heard, well, maybe it needs a more of a clear break or that $2,000-$2,100 zone up to $2,200, then $2,300, then $2,400, Nope…
Then we heard that for sure a move to $2,500 was going to really get things juiced up in the sector….
OK — well, we saw all those levels definitively cleared and GDX still isn’t even above it 2022 or 2020 peaks, much less it’s 2011 peaks and gold is WAY higher now than all those prior levels. Heck, some companies are still lower than their 2016 moves when gold was only up to $1,375.
Now, today, gold just knocked on $2,600 and there aren’t any comments here on this blog even about gold. (huh??)
—> It’s a stunning disconnect in market sentiment.
If we traveled back in time a half dozen years and told resource investors that in the future gold would not only clear $2,000 definitively, but would head up $2,600 and the GDX would still be lower than it was at $1921 gold, few would believe it… but that’s the market we’re in.
The mood here in TO is very sober, we have a lot of people using food banks, 256 homeless tent encampments, (think about that) housing and apartment costs have more than doubled in the last 9 years. Crime and drugs are everywhere, I don’t recognize the Canada I once knew. The young people starting out today can’t afford a home. We are living in a new reality. Our governments aren’t responding to the needs of their constituents. Canada has become a bastion of socialism, undocumented immigrants that receive all the benefits as soon as they arrive.
It’s a mess and its impossible for most to get excited about higher gold prices when you see suffering that never existed before in our country on a daily basis. Right now, there is no discernible light at the end of the tunnel. What is happening here is a Depression, but the government will not even call it a recession. We need change and real soon our economy is slowing fast like a slow-motion train wreck. Even the mainstream media is starting to wake up to the economics we are facing, and I have not heard that for a long time from them. DT
Understood DT. I live in Seattle where there are lots of homeless encampments and poverty and people struggling to make it, and it’s been that way in Toronto or Seattle and many North American cities for many years now… so nothing new under the sun.
However, that is hardly the point that was being made about gold breaking out to new highs today (which is live and topical for folks on this site). This is a resource investing platform (not a social welfare site) and it was shocking to see nobody commenting on gold breaking out to new highs yesterday or to $2600 today or the huge double-digit moves in Silver stocks yesterday, since that was the focus of the gold-themed interview with John Rubino that we are posting on here, and also the larger resource-based investing theme of this site.
The point was that looking at the price action in gold this year, or even over the last few years, hasn’t really translated into any positive sentiment or momentum, and it was the exact same at the Beaver Creek conference we’ve been at all week and nobody up at this ski resort was suffering from poverty (I can promise folks that). 😉
It’s just an odd disconnected environment for the precious metals space, and in particular most of the junior PM mining stocks. Maybe it will take $3000 gold and $50 silver to get the animal investing spirits to return to the sector. Who knows?
I think seasonality will be enough this fall to trigger excitement in the PM markets, oil above $70 suddenly due to a tropical storm.
USD is looking rough, I don’t think it has its’ mojo anymore.
Good point on the seasonality factor Dan.
That was one of the themes we discussed in the interview with John, and to that point gold has held up well during the summer doldrums and the seasonally tough month for most markets in September.
Maybe we see a little more upside momentum in Oct/Nov. Cheers!
Hi Ex, I can agree with what you said but you can’t get this market going if the economy is bad, I know you aren’t running a social welfare site, but the business cycle is a psychological phenomenon. Only when the memory of hard times has dimmed can confidence become a reality that transfers into market momentum. Now maybe you can get all the high rollers from The Beaver Creek Conference to spend more to make this market a reality, but I highly doubt that. DT😜😉🤣
Haha! Good points DT. Yes, I’m working on getting some of those high rollers to stimulate the economy today in Beaver Creek. Wish me luck! 🙂
Beaver Creek? Skied there when it first opened in the ’80’s. Not as challenging as other areas in the region, but the only place I ever got air (jumping off a mogul). There was a few seconds of blissful silence, followed by a hard landing, which the economy may be facing. Still have the skis, but the body isn’t the same.
Definitely a place for high rollers. Cost of a one day walk-up lift ticket is more than what I paid for round trip air fare from here to Denver back then.
Ditto DT…………. on the economy…….. does matter…. JMO
Good to know what is happening on the street level… it, is all tied together….JMO
But,….some stuff, you can not do a dang thing about…..
There is a lot of stuff, happening, that the SHEEPLE are clueless about…
Better to have a heads up… if, the road is out…. and the pavement ends… 🙂
Ex:
I know what you mean when you say there are limited comments about the last couple of days. They are probably the best back to back days in 3-4 years for my account. The significant thing is that they are back to back which has “stepped out” of the “alternating day” pattern that has proven “managed money intervention” is the norm.
I mentioned to my wife at EOD yesterday that we had one of our better days in recent history but I was not going to count on it lasting very long, if more than a day. 30 minutes to close and we might make it through another good day AND with it also being Friday.
So yes, it has been two days and my best example of it possibly being a breakout (if breakouts are allowed) was that my Magna shares have been carrying a 5 figure loss for probably a couple of years. With a solid downward trend no matter the news. Well they came out with good news yesterday during Beaver Creek and my loss was green by noon today. That got my attention more than silver gains. My green stocks were taken back from 22 in January to 3 earlier in the week and are now 10 in one of my accounts, with Arizona Metals almost green.
I am liking green stocks the most: Ridgeline, Magna, Radisson, Clean Air, Omai, Emerita, Group Eleven, Southern Silver, Roscan and Copper Core. Green in one of my other accounts is Magna, First Nordic, West Red Lake, Omai, Radisson, Emo, Sitka, Aston Bay, Arizona Metals, Roscan, Ridgeline. Some duplicates because I like them but bought on different dates on different exchanges.
Will they let us keep this rally going or will it be the same smash next week that we have grown use to over the last 4 years. That might be why people are reluctant to celebrate.
Nice update Lakedweller2!
Nice to hear about the multiple-day upward move in your portfolio, and some green on the screen.
Yeah, that was really good news from Magna, and I saw Jason & Paul at Beaver Creek and they broke the news to me in person. I was surprised but really happy for their team moving into production.
I also saw the folks from West Red Lake Gold, Omai, and First Nordic while there, out of the ones you mentioned. I think I was in 48 meetings company reviews over 4 days….too many to list. At airport flying back home for a midnight arrival. TGIF!!
Sounds like four days of heaven knowing your thirst for information. You have to be a bit on the tired side, so maybe you can get a few minutes of rest before the markets open back up. Looking forward to hearing your observations concerning the conference and any miners which particularly caught your attention. Thanks for taking time to update us on what was happening real-time.
HELLO………….. EX………………SO, I commented,,,,before you wrote
Excelsior
13 hours ago
“it was shocking to see nobody commenting on gold breaking out to new highs yesterday or to $2600 today”……………. SHOCKING…. 🙂
It is Friday….
I POSTED……. 🙂 …. before you…. LOL.
OOTB Jerry
15 hours ago*****
FREAKY FRIDAY AGAIN…………………………………………….
Reply
OOTB Jerry
14 hours ago
Gold new ball game…………….. $2580…………
Reply
OOTB Jerry
13 hours ago
Endgame: Interest On US Debt Surpasses $1 Trillion For First Time Ever, Exploding August Budget Deficit To Record High
US Interest To Hit $1.6 Trillion By Year End, Making It The Largest US Government Outlay
GOLD GOING A LOT HIGHER………….
Reply
Nice posts OOTB!!
I hadn’t seen those as they must have been on a different blog. Those boomer rocks sure continue to gain in value! 😄
EX……. Not everyone likes those boomer rocks.. 🙂 .. served me ok…for a long time….
Thanks for the comment….
Keep up the great work…. soon… the Long awaited BOOM.. will be going to the MOON… maybe SOON…
I liked your comment on the Royalty play….
Hi Jerry and your sidekick Ex, I really do think that the gold shares are going to start moving soon but I don’t know which ones to buy because it is usually the herd that starts to pile into a stock that seems like a real loser, and it goes Bananas. I hate holding stocks for a long period of time it drives me NUTS!!!!!!! I have been accumulating a tiny stock that is taking over a 10,000 TPD gold mill in Brazil (reverse takeover) that is on care and maintenance, the guy involved in this deal seems to have his head screwed on, but he will probably screw it up like most of them do. I wish I had just bought FIZZ and twiddled my fingers. Jerry, I think your physical platinum is going to surprise the sleepers, it just can’t stay cheaper that much longer. Did you notice I said a 10,000 TPD gold mill that is crazy, PIGEON SH*T CRAZY! LOL! DT 🤣😉😜
DT….. that is the real question… on which ones to buy….
I have been on the side lines so long,… and watching…
I thought First Majestic was a good one… glad I did not jump in…
I thought Keith was a sharp guy… but… he only has so much control…
I am sure, he did not figure silver being on hold for such a long time….
Ex always likes to rub it in when he goes to The Beaver Creek Conference Center, it reminds me of Cheech and Chong, “Hey Man I was at Beaver Creek!” LOL! DT
🤑🤑😜🤪🤪
Cheech and Chong on their way to Beaver Creek! DT
Finally had reason to buy back into SCZ and a bit more Silver stuff.
https://schrts.co/eTQFYyKq