Dave Erfle – Balancing Out The Technical And Macroeconomic Signals With Sour Sector Sentiment
Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to share his technical analysis, inter-market analysis, and fundamental analysis based on the key data that he believes is moving the needle in gold, silver, and the precious metals stocks via GDX and GDXJ.
We shift over into some of the patterns emerging in gold stocks on sudden higher volume selloffs, and how one needs to take a nuanced approach to digging in to where the selling is coming from and what the rationale behind the selling is. Sometimes the selling is justified based on bad company-specific news; but other times it can be a contrarian accumulation point, if the fundamentals are intact and it is merely larger funds pushing around the share prices during stretches low volume trading or leading up to financings.
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Click here to visit Dave’s website – The Junior Miner Junky.
Good news on the GDXJ.
All I hear these days is have watch list ready, buy good companies on dip, common man, all I heard when gdxu came out of pandemic bottom march 2020 miners going to new highs, lot money spent a long with QE since say 2012 and dollar going to collapse, what happen since 2020 high it’s been 3 years now with lower highs and lower lows, oh yeah inflation going up and gold miners going to bust out, nobody said that all that inflation lost miners big time and miners got beat up and continue to get beat up, inflation going to be issue for years to come, sure maybe recession hits hard but miners will get beaten down before they go up again, or crash in stocks like brain dead Jordan was predicting that was going to be catalyst for miners, these guys just keep pushing that breakout into future over and over, so why keep buying, I have my core holdings in miners and I’m holding like everyone else for that day when they move but investing new money in miners no I’m buying good dividend oil stocks and will hold 6 months t- bills and at least herp up with inflation instead of following these talking heads who keep buying more and more miners that continue to go down, oh yeah they can afford it they get newsletter money from subscriptions but average working guy got to wake up and stop listening to these gold bugs that think $3 or $4 K gold is right around corner, listen to Doc he sees it.
Just remember that Doc was always bearish and looking for lower gold and lower miners when he should have been buying. Shoot the messenger. As for the dollar, it IS collapsing but not when measured by other currencies and not without countertrend rallies. It buys a whole lot less of almost everything compared to just 3 years ago when the Fed quadrupled M1 money supply in about 3 months. For those who don’t know why that’s significant, the previous quadrupling of M1 took 20 years and even that was not okay. Furthermore, increases of the money supply is inflation. Rising prices are a symptom of inflation. The establishment’s Keynesian economists and professors don’t want you to know that.
I can’t say that $3000 gold is right around the corner but it has indeed turned bullish after falling for 5 months so silver and the miners are extremely likely to outperform following this normal short term pullback. Gold went up $195 in 3 weeks so this pullback is definitely normal and those who claim otherwise can safely be ignored.
Lacy Hunt has said for awhile that the recession probably wouldn’t come until the first qtr of 2024. He also has said that it probably won’t be a soft landing, nor will the debt get under control, and inflation is not as reported. By saying those things, he obviously is treading lightly on the Fed and the Government. There should be no surprises going forward other than who you wish to credit with truth. Intervention is real and can alter anyone’s projections until they can’t.
-3.5% Opened green +.05 and although about 15 mins late, take down so far is -1.5%.
Biggest hit to most market value in account and secondary is most shares per stock. Appears nothing more than intervention. Possible agenda is to use naked shorts to force financial difficulty in explorers and managed money and/or majors begin taking positions at bargain basement prices.
Make that -2.0% so far on take down.
Seems the red stocks concentrated in base metals while CNBC pumping EV.
-3.5% now. AE and Surge now in leadership of red. Going to look at adding.
Decided I would not add as the trade-offs appear to be gold and silver stocks in my account. Being paranoid, I don’t think I am ready to make that trade (base metals for gold/silver) when share counts already favor EV.
CNBC had trailer at bottom saying stocks having longest gain streak since 2021.
Think about that while buying miners at current prices.
American Eagle having a disconnect with OTC/CAD and Schwab. Schwab showing -25% while others in -2% range. I am hesitant to chase the -25% as it may not hold when actually trying to trade.
They just put a notice up on TV that 10 members of the Gambino family arrested in New York. Does anyone know how many of them are Bankers.
Zero. The Gambinos are weak and wear halos compared to the people behind (central) banking. Their arrests were likely at the behest of those people/their agents.
Bankers must be too dangerous to arrest. At least they have not been throwing employees off buildings lately. Must have more advanced methods like some kind of algo.
“We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.
— David Rockefeller
“International financiers are behind all war.”
— Henry Ford
“The one aim of these financiers is world control by the creation of inextinguishable debt.”
— Henry Ford
Ford nailed it.
WeWork Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection
Kris Holt – Yahoo Finance – Mon, November 6, 2023
“There has been another twist in the WeWork saga as the office space rental company has filed for bankruptcy protection. Following reports last week that the company was expected to file for Chapter 11 protection, WeWork’s shares were halted on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Monday. According to The New York Times, it described its bankruptcy filing as a “comprehensive reorganization” of its business. “As part of today’s filing, WeWork is requesting the ability to reject the leases of certain locations, which are largely nonoperational, and all affected members have received advanced notice,” the company told the publication in a statement.
“The company has struggled amid the rising costs of borrowing money and more people opting to work from home.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy-protection-030708470.html