TG Watkins – Stronger Market Breadth; Are We In A New Bull Market?
TG Watkins, Director of Stocks at Simpler Trading and Editor of The Profit Pilot website joins us to discuss the wider/stronger breadth in the US markets. After months of discussing how only the large tech names were holding up markets we have seen a rotation of money into the lagging sectors. TG was pointing out months ago that the charts of beat up stocks were basing and turning. Now the question is if markets have turned the corner and we are in a new bull market.
Click here to watch TG’s latest market video outlining this shift in breadth.
Global Stocks Slip on Worry Rally Looks Exhausted: Markets Wrap
Cecile Gutscher – Bloomberg – June 18, 2023
“Stocks fell Monday as concern about the global economy and the path of rates sapped the strength of a blistering second-quarter rally. A decline of 1% in Europe’s main equity gauge swept up almost every industry. Among the biggest individual movers, Sartorius AG slumped 15% after issuing a bigger-than-expected profit warning. In Asia, disappointed hopes for further stimulus pushed down Chinese tech companies.”
“With the path of rates increasingly uncertain, traders are vacillating between the lure of the rally and concern it’s exhausted and that the market has become overbought.”
“Wall Street’s rally has now erased more than a year of Fed-induced losses, with stocks, volatility and the dollar shaking off the impact of 10 rate hikes. The S&P 500 index just capped a fifth straight week of gains and is now higher than it was the day the Federal Reserve kicked off its campaign.”
– Two-year gilts trade at 5% yield for first time since 2008
– Disappointed hopes for stimulus in China hits tech stocks
The Dow is still down almost 60 percent versus gold since it topped over 20 years ago. In real terms, the recent stock bull began in 2011 not 2009 and ended in 2018 not 2022. That 6 year discrepancy matters because a true bull market in stocks makes real gains not phantom ones. Just look at Dow:Gold from 1980 to 2000:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24GOLD&p=Q&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95508306407&a=954530030&r=1687205377937&cmd=print
The Dow would have to rise almost 30 percent from here versus GOLD just to reach its 2018 high.
If ever there was a chart that screamed fade stocks and buy silver miners its this one. QQQ:SILJ has had a huge 5-wave move since mid April and is now very overbought and technically diverging bearishly…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p58735948214&a=1345035942
SLV is still up 37 percent since last year’s low which is a lot more than SPY is up from its own low last year.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33573067553&a=1421670214
Silver is up slightly more than SLV.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p39789857178&a=1416851192
It is veeery likely the top for /ES eg spy was put in late friday afternoon during regular hours…It would be one heck of a pop to hit the 4539 level…I am not short yet …shorting is twice as hard as entering long…glta…day /ES…https://tos.mx/oyR23vI
every .382 pop up on small time frames is sold into…that is bear action…
Another phony pricing week as Powell testifying before Congress. Make believe remains in charge as scheduled.
day VIX….once volatility crosses over the 14ema a sell off is possible…close above 50ema confirms the vix rise in my method…glta
Some movement up in SCZ…just a guess but they may be satisfied that 2 days of letting shorts out may be over. Just “watch” notice, nothing more.
So called sheeple cashing in on conventional markets, no surprise with that.
Yet more bargains for gold sector equity bag holders who were busy averaging down last week. Limitless opportunities with the penny standouts ipt, ktn, bbb, slvr, lio and so many more hoping to stay solvent, while gold holding its own. Majors at least ie aem, fnv and nem still above march lows, which helps with the flyer taken long dated calls. Also GAS shows some life, continue to hold UNG.
Best to continue with limited cash exposure
Yet you (sheeple) couldn’t spot last year’s low in the gold sector which easily outperformed your conventional market. HL is still up 28% vs SPY since last summer while GDX is up 20% and BBB is up 41% vs SPY. Versus the NYSE those outperformances are better at 37%, 27% and 51%.
Of course you (sheeple) are great at selling when you’re supposed to (lol) so why did you completely miss the opportunity to bag the much greater gains provided by HL, GDX or BBB? At their peaks versus the NYSE those gains were 89%, 56% and 170% respectively. In dollars those gains were 106%, 71% and 182%. Hell even IPT offered you a 65% gain off the September low and then a 60% gain off the Feb/March low but you weren’t interested. No, you’re partial to the much lower gains provided by the stock market where you somehow know what you’re doing. Right. The bottom line is that every time you should be a buyer in this sector you become an even more emotional puddle of runny dung. So why do you bother your fragile self with the sector at all?
Doing just fine Matthew, not to worry. What you bought last week with your astute trading skills, and the weeks before, I can now buy much cheaper now if and when I chose. Considering how far down in the gutter your recommended dregs have come down, there is no need to hurry. You suffer from typical gamblers remorse with the constant posts of coulda, shoulda, done this or that.
I bought in and out at least twice in the past year and half as posted here. Otherwise I’m now holding what I got mid march with minimum cash exposure and watching for whatever happens.
IPT, your much touted bell weather is telling me to hold out on gold equities and hit another low today. Hard to understand why you didn’t follow your own wisdom and do the same, rather than buy it and other gold dregs recently.
As shown in the chart above IPT makes each new low on lower volume because its weakness is driven by DUMB money selling and today was no different despite breaking down to last year’s low (which was no surprise whatsoever you ding-dong). And yes I happily bought even more. I would much rather grab today’s price, or last week’s, than to buy into any strength. This isn’t GDX. I don’t need assurances of a final low being imminent when something is this cheap and this thinly traded. I did the same thing in 2015 when I increased my stake almost 7 fold throughout the year and told everyone here my plan BEFORE I did so. Of course we had a jon syl by the name of Birdman here back then who acted like I had not shared my plan early that year. By the end of the year no one believed anything good was ever going to happen while I said it was now time for action. IPT was 11 cents and 6 or 7 months later it hit 1.28 with almost no one getting on board because it moved so fast. That year was unique but something similar happens following most lows to some degree.
It was about 2 weeks ago that I said my bullish setup had died after several months and that was obviously accurate. I have not said it is about to take off but we do now have a realistic path to extreme bullishness within a few weeks. If it doesn’t pan out I still won’t be selling IPT.
IPT is getting their Plomosas assets back into shape, with exploration upside on that property.
Matthew, yet another not to be critiqued tech savvy analysis on IPT. Complete with a hysterical perspective dating back to 2015, then concluding with a victory lap. For the accurate call that its bullish setup of several months ended two weeks ago. That would have been at 28/29 cents.
I would have picked the four day pop up into April fools day where it hit 40 cents, give or take a penny.
Going forward, not saying up, but there’s a path for extreme bullishness. Tough to pick.
And if it doesn’t pan out, screw it, won’t be selling IPT.
Remaining a devout bag holder.
You’re a dishonest idiot jony. You run with perceptions based on your confusion because you’re a fragile and unaccountable dick who seems to think I’m running a newsletter. Had you ever sought clarification from me on any technical setup since the 2020 top I would have given it to you but of course people like you willfully insist on misunderstanding things because you love to squeal and bitch.
You’re dead wrong about much more than realize because of your assumptions. For example, you made it clear long ago that you thought I didn’t sell the hell out of my juniors in 2020 AND then trade in and out of them after they topped. A decent person would’ve asked me about it at the time if it was so important but not you! Oh no, you’re instantly a twat and a delusional one at that. If you understood half of what you pretend to you wouldn’t be such a miserable baby at EVERY trade-worthy low. What gives? You completely BLEW IT last summer and fall. You and your buddies repeatedly reached peak bearish confidence precisely when you should’ve been buying and shutting your pie holes. You’re just trash. You don’t mean well when you post here; your vacuous content-free squawking is proof. Now you’re thrilled with the stock market even though you could have kicked its ass by simply buying GDX or gold last fall and then doing nothing. What a damn clown and fool you are.
Matthew, unfortunately, jon syl is and has been correct and you’ve constantly been wrong. I wrote here when the war in Ukraine broke out that the globalists will not allow gold to rise as they do not want the dollar to appear weak. This is after all their show and dollar is their currency/money.
All technical analysis on PM is useless and PMs will only rise when the globalists decide so. We can only speculate when that will happen.
Norrareal, such critiques of technical analysis never come from those who understand technical analysis. Let that sink in if you’re humble enough.
Housing……………. starts up…………
No gurus around here…. lol……
yes Jerry, no gurus here just gamblers. Entertaining site nevertheless.
I have been around this site………for 20 yrs……..
One thing for sure, … there is a lot of great info, or use to be including the
ORPHAN SECTION, (Politics)…. lot of smart people got JABBED… and suckered into
wearing a mask… proven not to work…from any COVID CRAP…. lol
The sheeple of the WORLD, have been conned and we have been in serious times
for a long time., … Playing like the FAKE FED and all the PRESIDENTS are Gurus
is the real JOKE….
Jerry, nice to see you are still around. This is the globalists playground and they get to set the rules.
Whatever happened to the Brazilian whiskey guy residing in Canada? Is he still around?
HELLO Norrareal 1968,
Sorry for the delay,…….. And thanks for the kind words.
And you are SPOT ON with the globalist….lot of sheeple have not figured that one out, yet.
Been doing some more of my history lesson, …on the OSS/CIA,..I thought I knew
a lot, but,…. more dots are being connected each year…especially with this UKRAINE mess., more names popping up..
Along with doing the background on the ACT of 1871, the US fake DC take over,
which 99.9 % of the sheeple are clueless on…. along with the Constitution…
Separating the fake history from the real history,… takes some time.
The Whiskey Guy?…. is that Glen?,… if so, I have not hear from him for some time.
How is the real estate going in your area?… Last I think , you said you got out
Glenfidish the Iamgold guy.
Hi Jerry. Yes, it’s Glenfidish. So, he’s gone?
I am still in real estate. I am a small developer, building small family houses with pools. One at a time. No loans, just my money. We are in the last inning of a blowoff phase here. Trying to cash out before a big decline hits.
God bless you Jerry!
Thank you very much ……………and God Bless you……
Hoping that you are very successful in your real estate…. I do like real estate , great investment
as far as I am concerned…… take care…
Dear Jerry, thank you for the kind words!
Stay strong! Stay blessed!
Norrareal1968……….. Ditto ……. Thanks for the reply and thoughts , and you do the same…
always good to hear from another believer…..
/GC weekly…I need to remain open to1850/1870 area being re-tested…that is a normal .786 retest of this leg up from 2/27 on daily…..https://tos.mx/dAGND3H
that price creates a huge ABCD up w price targ of 2,400 area…glta
I missed the Memo… Did the Fed put out a PR that precious metals and base metals no longer serve any purpose? Based on price action, they must have. Oh well, must be just an internal Memo.
equity market set-up for slaughter….extreme sentiment/vix to skew is enormous=no fear…liquidation liquidation…watch out!…all assets go …..fear/greed 82%…talk to me in 3 weeks…….i will get short on any bounce….you always get 3 chances to sell…sell Mortimer sell
Easy Money Makes You Stupid, Europe Edition
How Germany and the rest of Europe ran out of money
John Rubino – June 19, 2023
“Interest rates have spiked across the eurozone in response to the double-digit inflation of the past year. The ECB has raised its version of the Fed Funds rate from -0.50% to 3.50%, spiking 10-year bond yields to 4% in Italy and 3.76% in Greece. The weaker eurozone economies are, as a result, seeing the interest on their government debt rise far beyond their ability to pay. Which is a complicated way of saying they’re going bankrupt. And with eurozone consumer price inflation still above 6%, the ECB is in no position to ease the pressure by forcing interest rates back down.”
“The eurozone recently tipped into recession, as the past two quarters registered negative growth. In recessions workers lose their jobs and government income tax receipts fall, while those unemployed workers collect benefits, causing government spending to surge. Combine this dynamic with today’s high interest rates, and the result is a feedback loop where rising interest costs beget higher deficits which in turn beget even higher interest costs and so on, until something (most likely the currency) breaks.”
“This sudden bout of stagflation is a classic wake-up call, to which a rational society would respond by getting its financial house in order. That is, it would stop adding to its debilitating debt and devote itself to the pursuit of efficiency and productivity. Instead, Europe has done the following…”
https://rubino.substack.com/p/easy-money-makes-you-stupid-europe