Dave Erfle – Reviewing The Big Picture Bullish Setup As The Precious Metals Consolidate This Week
Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky, reviews the larger bullish technical setup in gold, silver, GDX, and GDXJ, and how different types of precious metals stocks are reacting to these higher prices. We start off discussing the technical setup, and that gold has been consolidating over $2000, silver over $25, and the larger cap PM stocks have been outperforming the upward moves in the metals for the last 6 months.
Next we discussed that in addition to the bullish longer-term 12 year cup & handle pattern that, another ratio he is watching is gold in relation to the S&P 500, as it approaches the 50% level once again. He also compares this set up to the period in the early 2000’s when gold had spend over a dozen years trying to break solidly above $500, out of a similar cup & handle pattern, and started to outperform the general US equities. We wrap up with getting Dave to outline how he’s been approaching investing in the gold and silver mining stocks in this environment.
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I discussed the triple top long time ago and gave the warning bells while many were high on gold breaking out and US dollar caving. Although mid to longer term yes that will happen, I noticed way back then that the market structure and pattern was changing.
For some of you who get caught in this retail frenzy and buy at the wrong opportunities, do your homework! If the crowd is high on Bitcoin or high on gold well it means it’s not the ripe time to go in. When things are quiet in the next few weeks and month and Armageddon comes back be ready. Now is not the time to be buying 100% let the market come to you don’t chase it.
As promised April Doji monthly candle=check
May red candle to come
There are monthly gaps in the smaller play companies I expect all to be filled if this is going to be the biggest and largest and most powerful breakout in gold history. Patience and as mentioned my target for the breakout of the all time high is down the road and this year 100%
Glen
Thank you. You have been more right than wrong – I agree sentiments are red hot but those conditions resolve on their own. PM market just experienced a very strong thrust and I think pause will remain short lived.
Glad to hear from Glen…. 🙂
Glen, the time to go in 100% was 5-6 weeks ago but I believe you said you raised cash instead.
Looks like the alternating day scenario is the theme for the miners.
Gotta Love It! Guanjuanto Silver (GSVR) continues to ramp up production, higher numbers out for Q1 2023. You’ve got to be in it to WIN IT! DT
Guanajuanto Silver (GSVR) promises and delivers, my kind of company! DT 😉
+1
Guanajuato News out on production on Accesswire.
Bought CDE below 3.75 and GDXJ at 40.47 so far…
Regarding the oscillating indicators I wouldn’t normally buy a daily chart like this one but the current situation with the weekly and monthly charts, among other things, have caused me to make an exception.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p69946054968&a=1396467456
GDXJ could easily drop another 3-4 dollars if this little H&S pattern activates:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p67888243465&a=1395675983
I just noticed that my pre-open buy of GDXJ at 40.47 is precisely the low for the day shown by stockcharts and my brokers. Talk about luck.
Silver sure looks good versus gold which is much better for our miners (gold miners included) than the opposite.
SLV:GLD 65 minute:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=65&yr=0&mn=1&dy=7&id=t7549815130c&a=1396475854&r=1681912769200&cmd=print
The precious metals got whacked, spanked, and trodden on early this morning. Gold was down about $35, they are both resurfacing, and gold will I believe end the day in the green, silver is already there. My Oh My, mischief is always afoot in the precious metal markets. DT🤣
The miners have many years of gains versus the stock market straight ahead.
GDX:QQQ weekly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AQQQ&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55284248695&a=1337100585
On the road and watching Bloomberg instead of CNBS. Much better news coverage in their running side posts. But, seems like a bit of Jaw Boning about the banks and a bunch of stuff in the Red. This morning may be “theme day” like “ the only thing that matters is the large banks and Nirvana Headquarters, The Fed”. I know the Fox fake news settlement isn’t bothering anyone as only “Fox Investors” will take a hit and it is only a small percentage of one years
profits.
As usual the people that commit the crimes will walk away free to continue their nefarious actions and others will be encouraged to continue theirs. I do not see a burst of “ truth” in the near future. More of same for the miners.
Listen to Nenner at usawatchdog……. has some good thoughts as always…. jmo
BLoomberg a bunch of busy bodies…. IMO
T-Bills are Handicapping Banks and the Debt Ceiling Debate
By: Steve Sosnick – Interactive Brokers – April 18, 2023
“Short-term fixed income is meant to be boring. That comment is not meant to be dismissive of either the product or those who trade it. Short-term rates, particularly those considered to be risk-free, are a key component of every fundamental pricing model that comes to mind. Thus, I become curious, if not concerned, when I see pricing anomalies in the very products that are meant to comprise the backbone of our financial system.”
“Let’s start with perhaps the most basic and liquid product that exists – US Treasury Bills. When we think of risk-free, this is usually what comes to mind. Yet we see a pronounced hump in the US Treasuries yield curve between 1- and 6-months. Note the exceptionally low rates on 1-month bills and the peak rate in the 3-4-month range (remember, last month’s 4-month bills are now this month’s 3-month bills). Traders are willing to pay a substantial premium for very short-term bills and are apparently avoiding those that mature in July…”
https://ibkrcampus.com/traders-insight/securities/fixed-income/t-bills-are-handicapping-banks-and-the-debt-ceiling-debate/