Jayant Bhandari – Junior Mining Stock Portfolio Strategies For Short-Term Traders And Longer-Term Value Investors
Jayant Bhandari, Private Investor, joins us for a focus on the macro backdrop in the gold and silver sector and how he is managing his portfolio of junior mining stocks. We start off discussing that there are 2 main ways to make money investing in the sector: 1) Positioning in companies that can build shareholder value over time, and 2) buying company positions when they are low, when other investors that bought at higher levels panic sell out of them at any price. During this seasonal end-of-year low volume paired with high volatility, Jayant is swing trading micro-cap stocks as they whip-saw back and forth, as an idea for more active traders.
For value investors, looking for longer-term buy and hold strategies, Jayant outlines the fundamentals of four companies that he has positions in and believes will appreciate in the year ahead. We discuss Aztec Minerals (AZT.V), Newcore Gold (NCAU.V), Montage Gold (MAU.V), and Riverside Resources (RRI.V). This brings up a broader discussion about how low the ounces in the ground and jurisdictions are being valued, and what kind of work programs he wants to see from junior companies in this environment.
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It’s close to Christmas and I must dust off my favorite Christmas movies. “A Wonderful Life”, Frank Capra’s classic takes place in Bedford Falls, which is a small town just like Seneca Falls in Upper New York State. Frank Capra traveled there in the mid 1940’s. On August 12th 1917, a man jumped off the bridge in Seneca Falls to save a drowning woman and lost his life. The Town and the bridge look much like Bedford Falls is depicted in the movie and the little girl who plays Zuzu (George Bailey’s daughter) now lives in Seneca Falls. Life really is about family and friends. DT
In the interview with Jayant, the topic of jurisdiction risk came up, with regards to West Africa. Like Jayant, I’ve seen many examples of companies actually moving forward with exploration, development, and moving into production at a much faster clip than what happens in the Americas, especially in North America (where it can take many years to get all the red tape cleared to move projects ahead).
In West Africa there have been many success stories at all stages of the mining cycle that were then taken over by larger companies that come to mind: Gryphon Minerals, True Gold, Teranga, Semafo, Avnel Gold, Roxgold, Savary Gold, etc… Look how fast and economically and without incident both Thor Explorations and Orezone just made it into production over the last year, compared to the trainwrecks in North American and South America. There are also still a lot of big players successfully operating in West Africa like Endeavour Mining, B2Gold, Iamgold, Perseus, Resolute, etc….
I would not be at all surprised to solid companies like Orezone, Galiano, Thor, Newcore, Montage, and maybe even Sarama get taken over by the big boys in the next 1-2 years.
In contrast to West Africa… Latin America continues to string along a series of terrible foreign policies, setbacks for mining companies, and allowing irrational woke far-left activists to dictate agendas and destroy foreign investment in their countries, increased access to jobs/training/schools/roads/medicine in their local communities, and further allowing gangs and cabals to run the show. Look at what we’ve seen the last few years out of Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, recently Peru, Guatemala, to a lessor extent Mexico, and now Panama…
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Canadian miner First Quantum starts arbitration against Panama, says government
Valentine Hilaire – Reuters – Dec 24, 2022
“Canada-based miner First Quantum Minerals (OTC:FQVLF) Ltd and its subsidiary Minera Panama started arbitration processes against Panama, the country’s ministry of commerce and industry said on Saturday, as the two sides have been locked in a disagreement over payments and mine operations.”
“Panama’s government on Monday ordered First Quantum (NASDAQ:QMCO) to pause operations at its flagship Cobre Panama copper mine after the company missed a deadline to finalize a deal that would have increased payments to the government by at least $375 million.”
Hi Ex, great post, I think you are right about where the true jurisdictional risk lies. I listened to your interview earlier with Jayant Bhandari and I was intrigued about Newcore and Montage, and now you have added a few more. I hope others read your post because it just makes sense to me. DT👍
Thanks DT. I sure feel a lot better about West Africa, in general, than I do Central or South America in general. Of course there are exceptions, as I think Brazil, Bolivia, Guyana, and even Argentina are still allowing mining companies to proceed at a good pace. Also, Nicaragua, despite all the recent kerfuffle about the US sanctions has expedited permitting on development and production projects for both Calibre and Mako without incident, so it’s a shame it has a stigma on it now, because from a functional operations standpoint it has been a good jurisdiction for mining thus far. Mexico is a mixed bag and depends on each individual state and then the local communities.
As for West Africa though, I see projects that move forward on schedule, at reasonable costs, and I’ve been part of a number of takeovers there already, and expect a few more to come in the next 1-2 years. It is just crazy where Newcore and Montage are being valued for all their ounces in the ground, and both those projects will get built and become mines (likely by larger companies). As for Orezone, it’s been a best-in-class explorer and developer for years, and now it is a new producer and I’ve not seen any major misfires during the whole construction and ramp up period (which is a rarity). As for Thor Explorations, we’ve had them on the show a lot, and same thing, from development to production without much of a hitch, on time, on budget, and running at the expected throughput rate and low costs, with another big development project waiting in the wings. With Galiano, it used to be called Asanko, and the prior team did have issues, and the pit wall collapsed, and some of the selling pressure a few years back was warranted. They’ve struggled to meet guidance and their costs have crept up some with inflationary & labor pressures, but they are producing a lot of gold, and that would be an ideal bolt on operation for a larger mining company (similar to what Endeavour did by scooping up both Teranga and Semafo, or what Fortuna did by taking over Roxgold).
Hi Ex, Jayant Bhandari talks about so many different approaches in investing that I look forward to his interviews. Keep him coming on he is a plus for The Ker Report. DT
Agreed DT, we really like Jayant as well, and of course will continue to have him on the show. He does present a number of different investing ideas and strategies for people to utilize, is a great guest, and we’re honored to have him investing his time and sharing his insights on our show.
There is a lot of talk these days about a debt jubilee, that in my mind would encourage a lawless society because no one would be responsible for financial decisions. It would make a mockery of all that has gone before. If you forgive private debt, public, and government debt you really can’t own anything anymore, maybe that is part of the great reset, you will own nothing, you will owe nothing, and you will be happy. This is a Mad, Mad, World.
You must let companies, banks, the public, and governments that have made poor financial decisions declare bankruptcy. It will be a huge world of pain but something will spring up to replace the irresponsible elements of our society, and the new world will be a much better place to live. DT
Agreed 100%. If people, or corporations, or nations took on debt, then it is their obligation to repay it, and if they can’t, then they shouldn’t get a free pass to just waive it without some penalties or consequences.
It’s the same kind of nonsense with all the terrible policies around student debt forgiveness. The government doesn’t make money, it taxes citizens for it, so nothing is “free” and those loan defaults are funded by taxpayers. It also punishes anyone that does it right and actually pays off their student loans. What would the incentive be to keep doing that and paying off debt the hard way, if people can just whine about how hard real life is finding work to pay off their student loan with their sociology of intersectional hierarchies degree, and then get their debt erased by the government ( which is also drowning in their own debt).
For over a decade, I’ve wanted to see congress stop raising the debt ceiling, slash a ton of worthless government spending, reign in entitlement programs to just the safety net they are supposed to be for the bottom 10%-20%, and actually figure out a way to start chewing through the massive national debt. Instead, they’ve perpetually raised the debt ceiling (like there won’t ever be consequences), spent money like drunken sailors on bills to placate lobbyist and special interest groups, and now after the last few years it is literally mathematically impossible to pay off all the debt they’ve created or the debt servicing. It’s insanity, and at one point the piper must be paid.
SSRM is becoming one of my favorites. I have been adding on red days
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSRM&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p53126067334&a=1316083228&r=1671833797929&cmd=print