John Rubino – Short Term Gains On The Recent Relief Rally In The Face Of Longer Term Economic Pain
John Rubino, Founder of The Dollar Collapse website, joins us to review the oversold bounce we saw in most markets for the prior month, the global economic health, and what this may mean for Fed policy and world currencies. This is wide ranging discussion touching upon fiscal blowouts in spending, central banking policy errors, and geopolitical missteps regarding trade, resources, and energy policies.
We start off looking at the technically oversold bounce in general equities and commodities, and the ingrained trading mentality to always buy the dip, figuring the Fed will bail out any serious market routes. This creates the environment where the Fed can keep hiking rates more aggressively for a longer duration, than if the markets had a more steep capitulation move lower, and just moves the correction further out. Next we discuss the growing challenge central banks will face as they continue hiking interest rates higher while holding the largest amounts of debt in memory, making the rolling over of variable debt at much higher rates eventually quite problematic.
We then focus on the strong US dollar over the last year, in relation to other troubled fiat currencies, but also point out the actual purchasing power of the dollar continues to be eroded by 8-9% inflation. A big reason for the fleeing to the safe haven of the dollar, is the economic weakness further hurt by poor global energy policies leading to problems in Europe and Asia – in particular, Germany and Japan as a models of policies and growth that hasn’t worked out.
We wrap up with potential paths forward and investing opportunities in the energy space, like the return to fossil fuels and nuclear power we’ve seen in focus lately. There is also the realization that some drastic changes will need to be implemented to even source the raw materials needed to fund the global agendas around growth and renewable energy we hear so often about in the mainstream narrative.
The Numbers Don’t Lie; The Fed Won’t Win This Inflation Fight
Michael Maharrey – Schiff Gold – Aug 23, 2022
“The central bankers at the Federal Reserve continue to talk tough about fighting inflation. But is it a fight they can win? — The numbers say no.”
“After the CPI data cooled a bit in July, many observers expected the Fed to declare victory and begin pivoting away from tightening monetary policy. Instead, the central bankers doubled down on the tough talk. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said the Fed remains “far, far away from declaring victory” on inflation. He went on to say he hasn’t seen anything that changes the trajectory of the Fed’s inflation fight. Kaskari remained adamant that the central bank needs raise rates to 3.9% by the end of the year and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. He even insisted he won’t be deterred by a recession.”
https://schiffgold.com/commentaries/the-numbers-dont-lie-the-fed-wont-win-this-inflation-fight/
Deglobalization and Central Banking
By Michael Lebowitz – Real Investment Advice – August 24, 2022
“There are primarily two opinions on the future path for inflation. The widely held view thinks inflation will resort back to pre-pandemic levels as the pandemic-related supply and demand distortions continue normalizing. A lesser followed theory believes this surge in inflation, unlike others over the last 30+ years, will be persistent. We initially discussed why this might occur in Persistent Inflation Scares the Fed. The article considers a change in behaviors that might generate a price-wage spiral. Given the significance of inflation on economic growth, Fed policy, and ultimately asset prices, it’s worth exploring deglobalization, another argument for persistently high inflation.”
“In War and Interest Rates, Zoltan Pozsar makes a strong case that hot economic wars will change the global economic landscape, reversing decades of the benefits of economic globalization and resulting in deglobalization and higher levels of inflation than we are accustomed to. The outcome may change monetary policy goals from supporting asset markets and encouraging debt use to managing geopolitical change and deglobalization.”
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/deglobalization-and-central-banking
Central Bankers Head To U.S. Mountains With A Bad Case Of Inflation Reflux
William Schomberg and Balazs Koranyi – Reuters – August 23, 2022
“This time last year, the world’s biggest central banks were united in getting the inflation story wrong. Now, as top policymakers gather for the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual monetary policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the U.S. central bank looks like it might manage a “soft landing” for its own economy, but the outlook for Europe is far more worrying.”
“Much of the world is facing the fastest price growth since the early 1980s, raising fears of a repeat of that era’s wage-price spiral phenomenon that required double-digit interest rates – and painful recessions – to restore price stability…”
The Fed created the $500 billion reserve fund in case the market tanks and they need to pump in liquidity. If they raise rates and crash the market and then start pouring fiat into the breach, it will be more of the same, only the $500 billion won’t go as far because they’ve increased the size of the debt burden. DT
The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets has a lot more to their disposal.
Austin-Fitts and Skidmore have proven how much money that has been stolen and redirected into the FEDs and other nice guys pockets..
Yes…………… Fitts and Skidmore………did a great job on the missing money……….
Looks like someone has a lot of ‘splaining to do at Jackson Hole.
Jackson Hole: Get back Jack? I have a degree in economics. What are these morans thinking? College loan debt relief for students! Way to buy votes, rah-rah go team!!
College relief for students or trillions in relief for Wall Street Banks/Corporations fraudulent activity. Seems one of those is a Transfer of Wealth of greater magnitude than the other. Also, Corporations earn fees off the use of the funds where College only gain knowledge. One is greed.
The two aren’t either/or, they’re one and the same. Those who understand could see this coming for many years just like the housing bust 15 years ago. Government is ALWAYS behind such frauds as they incentivize very economically and morally unsound behavior that would otherwise be severely punished by the free market. Student debt forgiveness isn’t about helping young debtors any more than gender studies is about serving any legitimate societal need. Both are about collecting huge risk-free profits at the expense of the rest of society.
If you want to pay the highest possible price and get the lowest possible quality for ANY good or service, let the government underwrite loans for it or subsidize it in some other way.
The housing bubble was due to the government removing the default risk of making bad home loans while the student loan bubble is due to the government removing the default risk for making bad student loans. Bad student loans, by the way, include those made to those seeking idiotic degrees that have no market value as well as those made to those who aren’t college material and are likely to flunk out. Unlike the home loan scam, ignoring credit worthiness was/is not the primary driver of the problem.
I agree Matthew. To me, the student loans were/are just another form of subprime loans. They make loans to individuals that for the most part will have trouble paying them back as the only real requirement is that you don’t have enough money to go to college (or buy a car or a house). As a result, loans are made with fabricated money and fees are earned. Then everyone sits back and either students can make minimal payments (interest only) or forfeit. Student loans cannot be written off in bankruptcy and if inflation goes rampant, salaries not increased, then the failure rate on all these fabricated funds syrocket. In the meantime, Wall Street packages up these high risk loans and sell them off to some state’s retirement fund which also defaults, driving retirees into the streets with the students and they all move to California where it is warmer and have many freeway overpasses to live under. Now Wall Street bailouts is another matter. Those put us in extreme debt in the future but the # of pool boys needed in the Hamptons also syrocket but they aren’t paid enough to cover their student loans which leaves a severe algae problem behind.
6 years ago and still funny…
https://youtu.be/l5XZ1sYJHDQ?t=3
Funny……. that was a good one………
Some of the stocks I follow are starting to look Peppy! DT
As John Rubino mentioned in the interview above, the Uranium stocks have been showing some signs of life over the last month+ and have been rather peppy indeed. Not so much in today’s trading session, but just in general as of late.
Peter Grandich – Uranium Fundamentals Are Stronger Than Ever
The Jay Martin Show – Aug 21, 2022
“Peter Grandich give his outlook on the uranium industry as it currently stands, and explains why is so bullish on the sector in the face of an energy crisis and overall solid fundamentals.”
I remember when Peter used to be on the KER a lot…….. really enjoyed his comments……
Remember Roger Weigan…. the real estate developer…… , some great comments , also.
Yep, I remember them both being on the KE Report regularly in the good ole days.
David Morgan – The Great Reset & the Role of Silver, Explained
Soar Financial – Aug 24, 2022
“On this episode of #SFLive, we are speaking with David Morgan, Publisher and CEO of The Morgan Report. David explains the Great Reset, the plans and ideas of Klaus Schwab & the WEF, plus the role of Silver.”
Bob Moriarty – The World Economic Forum Is Terrifying But It’s Destined to Fail
The Jay Martin Show – August 18, 2022
“Financial author and legendary investor Bob Moriarty breaks down the World Economic Forum and it’s agenda of absolute control over humanity. Bob explains that even though the WEF has a lot of political power and money behind it, it is an exercise that is destined to fail in the end.”
Edward Chancellor On What History Can Teach Us About The True Cost Of Easy Money
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (08/24/2022)
“Widely known as “one of the greatest financial historians alive,” Edward Chancellor has been working in the markets for three decades now; his study of finance theory, speculative bubbles and economics goes back even further. ‘The Price of Time,’ Edward’s latest book, is clear evidence of his passion for the subject of financial history and his ability to convey the key concepts in an effective and uniquely entertaining way.”
“The book does a masterful job of chronicling the modern history of easy money and explaining its many “secondary consequences,” including, “the collapse of productivity growth, unaffordable housing, rising inequality, the loss of market competition and financial fragility.” More than that, it takes the reader on a journey from the beginnings of modern central banking in John Law’s Mississippi Company to today’s fight against rapidly rising inflation pressures, imploring the reader to think critically about what it all means for the future of the economy and markets. In this episode, Edward shares his inspiration for writing it and his thoughts on what history suggests may lie ahead.”
Some up and some down. Appears the folks at Jackson Hole can drink in peace and enjoy each others company.
FIPEST – All Tools Signal a Gold Rally, Except One
David Brady – Sprott Money – August 25, 2022
“Ahead of Powell’s big speech on monetary policy at Jackson Hole on Friday, where everyone and their dog expects Powell to reiterate the Fed’s hawkish stance on monetary policy, I want to look at where Gold stands.”
“The sentiment is as extreme bearish as it was at the 1675 lows. Funds went slightly long again as Gold rose to 1824 but have been cutting those longs as Gold fell back. Banks added back some shorts but are now tapering them again. Both positions are, on balance, bullish. Open interest is at its lowest level since May 2019, when Gold was in the 1300s. Again, bullish.”
> The charts for Gold suggest two primary scenarios. First the weekly chart:
“We bottom in wave C of this correction since August 2020 at ~1663, where the size of wave C = A. There is a perfect set-up in both the RSI and MACD Histogram for such an outcome. The MACD Line would also register its lowest level since 2013, nine years ago. Talk about extreme oversold! More so than at 1045 in 2015, 1124 in 2016, and 1167 in 2018.”
> Now for the daily Gold chart:
daily chart
“The alternative is that we have bottomed out in wave 2 at ~1740, coming off the high of 1824. This also just happens to be the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 1678 to 1824, standard for a wave 2. Next, we head upwards in wave 3, the money wave. Either way, we’ve got a drop of a further ~$75 or the bottom is already in place. That’s a bullish risk/reward profile based on probabilities.”
“There is one more possibility of a far deeper dive in Gold in conjunction with stocks and higher real yields, but that is relatively small at this time. Only below 1650 does that becomes a higher probability.”
The Whole System Is Insolvent With David Brady
The Lead-Lag Report – Aug 26, 2022
“Are we in a lost decade for stocks?”
UUP just closed under a speed line that has proven its validity (and quite precise validity) since April. This is the third breakout failure unless the bulls can take back the level immediately. Up or down in any sector, the third try is often the last try.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p77332009228&a=1097450982
We now have the perfect setup for the price managers to hit gold while Powell speaks. It’s perfect because plenty of legitimate traders will join in. Perhaps they can get it down to 1720-ish to really embolden the bears and shakeout new but weak bulls.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p10939079005&a=1232021571
That’s not a prediction, by the way. It’s just a possibility and one that should not scare you out (in my opinion, not advice).
We will see ………. in a few hours………….. FREAKY FRIDAY……..anything goes……..
BIG FREAKY FRIDAY…………….is upon us again…………………….
What a week………
I don’t know, but just looks like another Fed intervention week. Some up some down and down overall going into the nebulous Speech of the moment. Cans flying everywhere at Lake Jackson Hole. Maybe ….. no. Wrong thinking. No maybe … just more of same.
I’m not expecting Powell to veer much from the plan they’ve mapped out, but I’m sure every word will be parsed by the market, both carbon-based traders and high-frequency trading machines and their programmed algos. Yes, cans will be kicked down the road as long as it is doable…
The biggest problem facing The Western World is when are they going to start producing goods that can be sold in markets around the World that will revive their economies and bring back business to it’s former glory. I see no signs of a real economy, and no one seems to be talking about American business revival. I guess we aren’t feeling enough pain with all this inflation. You would assume that America needs to get back to looking after it’s own, by implementing a sound economy backed by sound money. DT
Most of the public in The Western World doesn’t realize that the reason The Russians put missiles in Cuba in 1962 was because America put nuclear tipped missiles in Turkey first. When JFK put the naval blockade on Cuba to get The Russian missiles removed, most of this deal was for The Americans to take their missiles out of Turkey. That is an important point to clarify when people start looking at what is happening today in Eastern Europe and Ukraine. DT
My GDX average miner index is at a rare event…The TAS profile alogo of three dashed lines is totally neutral…The space between horizontal dashed lines is equal eg. nuetral stance between buyers below and sellers above….If new selling emerges the current lowest blue dash line of willing sellers will at 25.10 will be broken below……
https://tos.mx/jiY0021
Weekly gold chart…..Serious /GC DEC support is 1713 TAS profile bottom…serious
Trends: https://tinyurl.com/4ypebbv9
Possible Deeper Dollar Pull Back
Powell Presents 10:00et
Wrong Powell. Same stance?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T45iRSvxaVM
Working together …. Very strange
Pulled back nearly 38.2%, then ‘Powelled’!
(Eleanor out-danced Fred, too.)
Report after the close.
Powell said inflation can change by changing our perceptions. My perception is that the Fed doesn’t exist. Let’s see how that works.
Some of the brightest minds in the world don’t know where inflation comes from other than perception, here comes the social engineering…
They turn something they caused into a psychological phenomena caused by small minded peasants, but not the elites that control money flows…
Alasdair Macleod has a good article on King World News about “Credit” being the issue and $700 Trillion in derivative debt. Maybe Powell imagines that problem doesn’t exist.
GOTS……
15 minute GDX…Triple top…so far .618 retrace of that swing…
The more time that is involved the more likely the weekly TAS support zone at 25.11 will be tested…A break below w volume brings the monthly TAS support at 22.11 assuming the weekly swing at 24.38 gives it up…This is not trading advise…I have no idea what will occur….
Mo. GDX
(SVM) Silvercorp Metals announces a share repurchase program
Aug. 25, 2022
“Silvercorp Metals announced a share buyback program commencing August 29, 2022 to repurchase up to 7,079,407 of its own common shares, representing approximately 4% the 176,985,184 common shares issued and outstanding as of August 16, 2022.”
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3876505-silvercorp-metals-announces-a-share-repurchase-program
Fed Chair Powell: Rates will rise until ‘job is done’ bringing down inflation
Brian Cheung · Fri, August 26, 2022
“Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank’s job on lowering inflation is not done, suggesting that the Fed will continue to aggressively raise interest rates to cool the economy.”
“We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done,” Powell said in remarks delivered at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
“While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month’s improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down,” Powell said Friday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-powell-speech-jackson-hole-2022-140010694.html
I noticed Powell departed the area very quickly. That appeared to be a Run Away Moment. Too early for the Bar to open. Wonder what they are going to do for 3 days. No snow or antything.
The scheduling of this event is suspicious as well. In the past they’ve met earlier in the week, and given a summary report on Friday.
This year’s summary is scheduled for tomorrow, Saturday, when the markets are closed…
Kitco shows gold down roughly 2.5% in past year. Not bad considering. Broader sector indices Gdx Gdxj down more like 70%. Most dregs worse. So much for the age old mantra that you buy sector equities for upside leverage with the vast majority of bagholders claiming to be virtually totally invested.
Oh the big one is coming for the leverage flip to the upside. Certainly won’t be with all the gold bug babble but by actual equity price action of overperformance.
What do say Doc??
We all know what berated Joe’s unsubstantiated thoughts have been for the past year or more by those with actual wisdom.
Jonsyl, I’ll have my end of the month coming soon—the last one I mentioned we could see 34000 on the dow and we did (shorted)—-have been saying for months (unlike others) that Powell will not blink as soon as he has in the past because of the recalcitrant inflation. The PM stocks should remain under pressure for some time. I’m slowly now adding but am still over 85% in cash since I sold all my conventional stocks I bought when the dow first dumped for a nice profit when 34000 was reached—I’ll repurchase when they plumb their previous lows. I see gdx hit 25—I thought it would happen sooner then it has but no problem since I have remained in cash and will slowly cherry pick these ludicrous PM bargains going forward. As mentioned in the past the odds of gold pricing hitting the lower BB on the monthly chart was very high and that has happened. I’ll give you another significant odds on possibility if you would like—just let me know. doc.
If Powell ever speaks publicly again, a good question would be “what is his perception of the $700 Trillion in World Wide derivative debt that has been recently reported from other sources”.
Powell the Krell: “Just add a zero!”
gdx…todays reaction may be a buying op…..very lite volume w support on week and mo holding…i probably wait until monday…but provided a day trade makes sense….small volumes are green w buyers…so it is not armagedon…right!
Some seem to be getting the shotgun out soon…certainly seems to playing out per this article…glta
This was sad news to get. I believe Brad Cooke to have been one of the good guys in this industry, and was a solid leader as well as a kind human being. We had the good fortune of speaking with Brad a few times to get updates on Endeavour Silver and he always struck me as a man of character and integrity. RIP Brad.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
(EXK) (EDR) Endeavour Silver Honours Bradford Cooke with Company Tribute and Details on Celebration of Life
24 Aug 2022
“Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE: EXK; TSX: EDR) has been showered with loving condolences and widespread sympathies from the mining and investment community for the recent passing of the company’s founder, Director and Executive Chairman, Bradford Cooke. Today we are honoring his memory with a special company presentation and details about his memorial.”
https://media2-production.mightynetworks.com/asset/44420988/eulogy_bradford_cooke.pdf
One of my first miners bought was Endeavor Silver and it had to be 15-20 years ago. When checking out the stock, I heard an interview of Brad Cooke and he sounded like he could be trusted. As time went on, I heard from others in the Sector talk about his honesty and character and that he was truly an exception in the industry. So … I agree with your assessment that Brad Cooke will be definitely missed.
I warned of today’s action on this thread and maintain the view that it is not the start of something worse.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52017937548&a=1236364162
It could very well be a retest of Monday’s low and nothing more. Tuesday began with a vertical move (clear on the intraday charts) that “needed” a retrace.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p40049332472&a=1105555118
Of course if there’s no improvement in the remaining 2 hours the odds of more downside on Monday will be greater.
Did you clear this with Sir Joe? 😂
He will pop up soon enough..
How about Doc and his self-proclaimed “prescient” calls like this one:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29257806274&a=1237840222
Like Joe, he’s never bearish when it counts. Unlike Joe, he pretends his calls are prescient. Lol
He just mumbled something about he sold this and that and made a lot of plata.. trades always revealed after.. ah well, all is good
The Fed has a real problem on finding scape goats. It is way beyond that as there is nowhere to point and no solutions. The Drama builds …
The junior silver stocks continue to show bullish relative strength. In fact, SILJ:GDX touched its highest level since February tenth today.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p52060018931&a=1238076600
Brixton finished the week up 27% and above both its 40 week MA and EMA.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=W&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p92917665989&a=1238084544
I added several times to bbb over the last week. Nothing like your holdings, but I got motivated off QH’s comments about their copper hits. Bbb has consecutive days of gains which is highly unusual in my account.
Congrats to you …
Thanks; I won’t be selling a single share anytime soon because I didn’t buy it to trade it. I bought it for the possibility of the kind of discovery that could send it 50 times higher and maybe much more. I know that probably seems ridiculous at the moment!
A week ago I said the stock market was a sell and now it’s a much more obvious sell no matter what part of it you look at. Here’s QQQ with an activated H&S pattern with a bearishly droopy right shoulder complete with the surge in volume as the neckline broke. It even closed below the daily Bollinger Band…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32611330756&a=1233131656
Of course stocks are a clear sell vs gold…
DIA:GLD
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p97300999426&a=1238204214
A serious fall is likely this fall, perhaps in a month or so…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42232614161&a=1116098205
Investors see no Fed pivot, brace for hawkish Powell message in Jackson Hole
Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss – Reuters – August 23, 2022
“Investors are bracing for the Federal Reserve to double down on its commitment to crushing inflation, and expect its chair Jerome Powell at the annual central bank gathering in Wyoming this week to deliver an aggressive tightening message and dash hopes for a rate cut next year.”
“The Jackson Hole, Wyoming retreat comes after investors last week viewed the transcripts from the Fed’s July meeting as leaning dovish and as a green light to put some risk back on the table. The stock market initially held up and bond yields were steady, before markets re-considered that interpretation.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/investors-see-no-fed-pivot-brace-hawkish-powell-message-jackson-hole-2022-08-24/