John Rubino – Global Stock Markets And Economies Operating With Increased Volatility And Complexity
John Rubino, Founder of The Dollar Collapse website, joins us to discuss the complexity and volatility facing world economies, where central banks are aggressively hiking rates to keep up with persistently high inflation, labor markets are rolling over, real estate markets are cooling, and growth is slowing. This is wide ranging discussion touching upon fiscal and geopolitical missteps along with central banking policy errors, and how this is leading to time of economic weakness as it all gets sorted out.
We start off looking forward to this weeks Fed rate hike, the coming GDP data for Q2, and what this could all mean in relation to the eventual Powell Pivot that so many are anticipating for later in the year or moving into early 2023. Next, we review why gold, silver, and PM mining stocks haven’t performed better in light of the higher inflation, geopolitical instability, and chaotic global conditions around food and energy. We get into both the ongoing implosion of the Chinese real estate markets and the failure of global energy policies leading to problems in the US, Japan, and Europe – in particular, Germany as a model of what hasn’t worked. We wrap up with potential paths forward, and with the realization that some drastic will need to change to source the raw materials needed to fund the global agendas around growth and renewable energy we hear so often about in the mainstream narrative.
James Kunstler…..It’s a racket
Agreed. Hasn’t it always been a racket though?
Doug Noland: Nowhere To Hide From The Coming Apocalypse
by Doug Noland on Credit Bubble Bulletin – July 23, 2022
“We certainly recognize these are trying times. Few of us have been spared from what has been an all-encompassing market decline… With that said, let’s cut to the chase. Stocks were hammered. Fixed-income fared only somewhat better. Treasuries, the iShares Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), to be more exact, returned negative 12.6% – and is down about 20% y-t-d. The iShares investment-grade corporate bond ETF (LQD) returned negative 8.40% for the quarter, and the iShares high-yield bond EFT (HYG) returned negative 9.48%.”
“Through mid-June, commodities had offered refuge from the pounding taken by financial assets. At its June high, the Bloomberg Commodities Index was sporting a 15.3% q-t-d gain. Crude traded up to almost $124, while natural gas surged to a 44% q-t-d gain. But commodities reversed sharply lower during the final couple weeks of the quarter. The Bloomberg Commodities Index ended Q2 with a 5.9% decline, with most of crude’s advance gone, and natural gas actually ending the quarter lower. Even safe havens gold and silver reversed sharply lower and posted Q2 losses.”
“And with global yields surging along with the dollar, losses continued to mount in EM currencies, stocks and bonds. Meanwhile, one of history’s great manias collapsed in spectacular fashion. Cryptocurrencies suffered catastrophic losses, with withdrawal suspensions, insolvencies, panic runs and general chaos engulfing the sector.”
“In short, the so-called “everything Bubble” transitioned to Bubbles bursting everywhere. The backdrop beckons, at least in my eyes, for some Credit and Bubble analysis. Bubbles are a monetary phenomenon. There is invariably an underlying source of Credit expansion driving a “self-reinforcing but inevitably unsustainable inflation” – my Bubble definition…”
Parallel Mike: Resetting the Global Reserve Currency
Palisades Radio – July 21, 2022
“Tom welcomes an interesting new guest, Parallel Mike. Mike is the host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares finance, geopolitics and personal liberty content.”
“The current system is one with enormous debt, as a result, there is a desire to tie the system to commodities. In order for a new system to replace the old it must be appealing. The old system will do whatever it can to maintain its power. The coming system will be good for precious metals and other commodities.”
“The U.S. has a big advantage due to it’s reserve currency status. They can leverage that power to levy sanctions, block countries from transacting, or as we seen recently, freeze reserves. Venezuela is an example of such a country. Whenever a country proposes an alternative approach to currency or utilizing gold, we often see a military intervention shortly afterwards. The debt bubble is a time bomb waiting to happen.”
“He discusses the key participants in the BRICS and their approach to working cooperatively. Combined, they do represent a significant power base of global trade. Rising superpowers like China have no interest in maintaining the existing dollar system.”
Continued Oversold Signals in Precious Metals and Miners
Bob Hoye & Ross Clark – July 17, 2022
Well, as I had mentioned was a strong possibility, it looks like good ole’ McEwen Mining is going to do that 1:10 reverse stock split (which they really needed to do to keep their NYSE listing and have any hopes of attracting institutional investment).
I share a similar outlook on MUX as this contributor over at Seeking Alpha does, that they have been a trainwreck for a while now, but that down the road they may have more to be encouraged by if they can gradually dig out of the hole they find themselves in. I don’t have a position in MUX at present and sold out of my 4th trading cycle in it earlier in the year for a tax loss, but did mention, despite my extreme disappointment in how McEwen has executed the last 2 years at almost every mine, that I’d consider a position for a turn-around play — after they did a reverse split and after they did another capital raise (which seems quite likely all things considered).
This news on the reverse split was the first cue I was looking for, but after a reverse split there is typically some more selling from disgusted longer term shareholders, that I’ll be looking to be opportunistic with if it gets even more ugly. Until then… it continues to struggle.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
(MUX) McEwen Mining: 1 For 10 Reverse Split Was The Last Blow
Jul. 25, 2022
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4525540-mcewen-mining-1-for-10-reverse-split-last-blow
A reminder that they are not consolidating authorised shares 1:10. They are hanging onto 200,000,000 of those already authorised so there is plenty of dilution possible in future. They could quintuple the market cap without adding a penny to the share price.
Terry, it says plainly on MUX’s recent press release that they are doing a 1 new share for 10 old shares reverse split.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
July 12, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — “McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE: MUX) (TSX: MUX) announces that it is proceeding with a 1-for-10 reverse split of the common shares of the Company (“the Reverse Split”) with an effective date on or about July 26th, 2022.”
I still like what I see for a low this week.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=t7125985916c&a=1012440604&r=1658810884717&cmd=print
wait a day….despondency to hopeful…..NEM is bouncing on light vol…helping nugt…we will see…i expect more oscillating…hope not…glta
The dollar just finished below its 20 day MA for the first time in 6 weeks.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p48000430942&a=1163815784
Trends: https://tinyurl.com/4ypebbv9
NatGas Topping. Soon? Today?
PMs Struggle To Hold.
Dollar Strong.
this could be the key reversal day…doc was recommending meds…so things are in alignment…glta
Stats at open: Take down started around 4:00AM in London as usual. If I take Emerita out of my mix of 36 stocks of some up and some down, the 35 remaining stocks were – $3.00 at open. This is roughly the daily occurrence to go along with the guy yesterday that complained no one on this site talks about manipulation. The above trend is over a year old in my account and the serious take down started in January and the Juniors had no pop up in 2022 at all. The assumption is not that they are the last to move, but the least held by managed money and insiders and therefore most vulnerable in a price suppression market.
10:38 EST: Account: -$58 (36 stocks)
Fed Week: All data controlled going into Fed Announcement. But, as John Rubino mentioned over and over (paraphrased) we hang on every action of The Fed despite they don’t know what they are doing. In order to make The Fed World “the real world”, requires extensive manipulation by the Central Banking System and Federal Government in altering economic data. No President in at least 50 or more years has the “backbone” to stand up to “money interests”. I would contend that The Fed knows exactly what they are doing and that is to maximize the transfer of wealth to the Central Banking System and Corporations and they have been “highly successful” in doing that since the Governments of the Western World enable them and not guard the people interest’s. When you understand what the Agenda of The Fed is, all their actions are consistent and no longer appearing incompetent,
Humorous Update Ten Minutes later: Take Emerita out of the mix and account is +$3. How is that for a computer generated account that I have taken from 60 stocks to 20 stocks and back to 36 and get the same result.
One way around it would be to avoid North American markets.
Terry; I think you are right as trading around the World is different from that imposed by the US system.
Along with that thought I noticed that Moriarty’s site put up an article “Russia and China Officially Announce A New Global Reserve Currency” and CNBC News is talking about the US putting further monetary sanctions on Russia…. Like they care??? Always the lie in order to perpetuate a fraudulent system by a bunch of Banksters and Politicians that have obvious mental issues and personality disorders. Of course the people are going to reelect them as they are more concerned about who might move into the neighborhood.
Different form of “what the heck is going on”: All of a sudden Nine Mile Metals jumped +33% on my account. I went to the Ceo.ca site and they noted there was a trade of 1.16 mil shares at open, but no news. It fell back to 25%. Now is someone trading off inside information other than Martha Stewart?
Watch it drop into EOD unless something “real” shows up.
Everyone has an article out proclaiming we’re close to a tradeable bottom in PMs (G Savage, Bob of 321Gold) I smell something else. My hunch is telling me there is going to be more downside first then a weak bounce in August- early Sept. Staying in cash like DOC mentioned.
Cali
I think you and Doc are probably right as the more threatening the real data gets, the more the PTB will try to defend the Castle. The Moat is running dry very quickly….look for bodies like in Lake Mead.
For what it is worth…weekly NEM did hit its 1.272 target of its most recent swing points…That would be a technical requirement for a new swing up…imho
Larry, if you see how far down nem is from 200 dma, it gives you an idea how oversold it is. IMO it will take days to stabilize.. that $50 gap is going to take some time to fill. There is nothing underneath to support till $40.. it took 4 years to break 40 level (2016-20)
Bob Moriarty: A New World Reserve Currency Based Around Gold Will Be Created
Goldfinger (aka Robert Sinn) – Energy & Gold – 07/25/2022
“In this month’s conversation with Bob Moriarty we discuss sentiment in the junior mining sector and the mounting signs of a tradable bottom that Bob is seeing across the precious metals sector. Bob believes we are close to an important bottom in the juniors, and investor sentiment on social media is helping to confirm this theory. We also discuss the prospect of a new global reserve currency supported by China and Russia that could be backed by gold. We then delve into Eloro Resources, Eloro’s recent drill results, and why Bob believes Eloro’s Iska Iska Project could become one of the most important mines in South America. We conclude by discussing a recent blog post that I wrote on CEO.ca about what drives the gold market, and why the recent gold downturn has been particularly frustrating for many precious metals investors. Without further ado, Energy & Gold’s July 2022 conversation with 321gold founder Bob Moriarty….”
GDX at a critical support
https://ibb.co/P9vnpBX
Good point CaliJoe. I’d prefer not to see GDX break below that lateral pricing support you highlighted.
day NEM…..Looks plausibly ok….prepped for moving up…does not have too though…
Larry, sometimes round numbers are a signal. NEM’s low yesterday was $44.00, but I would not be surprised if a final a touch to $43.27 finished off the downside. Maybe soon.
BDC…I cannot disagree…especially because the day ABC down is below at 41.22 a 127.2%
This is NEM’s best correction since the uptrend began 7 years ago and it comes with the sentiment readings that we should expect under the circumstances. Yesterday’s not-so-bad bad news was apparently the catalyst for a needed capitulation that has probably spilled into other miners. We’ve seen a straight down move to a daily RSI reading of 12 which is like the inverse of a straight UP move to a daily RSI reading of 88. Relative to some long term MAs, NEM is at its lowest level in 7 years.
The situation is ideal for contrarian action.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49777598303&a=1087879477
Nine Mile held into close, so it will be interesting if news comes or something to justify todays move. During the last 30 Minutes, Copper Lake made a strong move into close but that is another one that can have unexplainable moves… watch that one tomorrow. Sneaking up at the end was Empress and Banyan…not big moves but these two usually hold at suppressed levels but don’t get excited much about anything. So … 4 to watch for tomorrow. At least the closing seemed more positive than usual. Might just be a move to smash hopes with the Fed Bulldozing something over the Peons.
Yesterday’s plunge to a new low did not undo the HUI’s MACD (8,17,9) buy signal.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p87298132303&a=1204871162
That’s a perfect normal chart activity, not manipulated at all. Even thou statistically impossible it makes perfectly sense that a chart prints like what, 15-18 down days in a row for PM/miners, without reasonable rebounds. Nope, not fishy at all…
Yeah, I know, “capitalize of it” bla bla..
We actually haven’t seen more than 4 days down since May (and that was only 6 in a row).
All GDXJ did yesterday was fill its 7/18 gap to the penny and now it has what will likely prove to be a bullish H&S bottom.
Terrible sentiment always precedes the best moves up and we have that now.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p67470092415&a=1205033362
I think it was silver which printed 15 down days in a row not long ago
Silver had 10 days down in April/May.
The big picture remains very bearish for stocks.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=t9712967066c&a=1194245810&r=1658865798066&cmd=print
Will this be the 8th week lower for the HUI? I doubt it. Once the Fed is behind us, I bet it will manage to finish the week higher.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32276101289&a=1038741662
Paul Craig Roberts: The United States does not have an economy
Bryan Lutz – July 25, 2022
“As foreign governments, having experienced or witnessed the economic carnage and fearing accountability, are less willing to be bribed into indebting their countries, American finance is now applying this technique to Americans. Contrary to the narrative in the financial press, the Federal Reserve is not raising interest rates in order to fight inflation. It is ludicrous to think that a three-quarters of one percent rise in a very low interest rate is going to have any impact on a 9.1% rate of consumer inflation or that speculation that the Federal Reserve has in mind another three-quarters of one percent possibly followed by one half of one percent comprise an anti-inflation policy. If all these increases occur, it still leaves the interest rate below the inflation rate.”
“The Federal Reserve’s rise in interest rates is just a continuation of its policy of concentrating income and wealth in the hands of the One Percent. Quantitative Easing was the cloak for the Federal Reserve to print $8.2 trillion in new money which was directed or found its way into the prices of stocks and bonds, thus enriching the small number who own most of these financial instruments. Having maxed out this avenue of wealth concentration, the Federal Reserve is now raising interest rates in order to drive up mortgage costs to aspiring home owners. The Federal Reserve is driving individuals out of the housing market in order to free up properties for “private equity” firms to purchase homes for their rental values. That private equity firms see rental income from the existing stock of houses as the best investment opportunity tells us that the US economy has played out. When investment goes into existing assets, not into producing new assets, the economy ceases to grow.”
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/paul-craig-roberts-us-no-economy/