Weekend Show – Jesse Felder and Doc – A Different Outlook For Metals, Who Do You Think Is Right?
It was a very bad end of the month and quarter for markets broadly but especially for precious metals stock investors. Gold and silver stocks broke-down below strong resistance levels and closed at 2+ year lows. silver followed the stocks down but gold managed to hold around the $1,800 level.
On this Weekend’s Show we have a couple favorite guests on to weigh in on the markets and metals. Jesse Felder and Richard Postma (Doc) look at the markets in slightly different ways and this is translating to some different forecasts in the near term. Have a listen and let us know what you think.
As always you can reach Shad and I through email at Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder of the Felder Report kicks of the show by focusing on interest rates and the USD. He thinks both are topping. This ties into a discussion on possible recession and trading in commodities. Click here to learn more about the Felder Report.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Richard Postma, AKA Doc wraps up the show by sharing what the charts are telling him about future moves in gold, silver, gold and silver stocks, and US markets. I warn you, it’s not a positive outlook for investors in the near term.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Heliostar Metals – Exploration Plans For The Rest Of 2022 Include Drilling Unga And Building Infrastructure For Year Round Exploration
- Tier One Silver – After Raising Over $6mil Here Are The Exploration Plans For This Year At Curibaya and Hurricane
- Calibre Mining – Multi-Year Growth From Grade-driven Production Increases, Ongoing Exploration, And Resource Expansion
- Troilus Gold – Encouraging Initial Assay Results Returned From The Phase II Gap Zone Drill Program
- Astra Exploration – A New Gold Zone and The Start Of Drilling At Pampa Panciencia Plus A Financing With Some Well Known Investors
- AbraSilver Resource – A New Copper Discovery On The First 2 Holes At La Coipita and An Exploration Update From Diablillos
Personally, in having talked to both guests a number of times, I don’t see it so much as a “who’s right” question like Cory posed in the title, nor do I see their outlooks as that vastly different. Both Jesse’s and Doc’s views have a lot of overlap as far as the market pain and high potential of a recession in the general markets and economy that they both see on the horizon. The title could have been “Is Recession on the horizon, or is it already here?” This would have tied into the common theme both discussed. They will likely both be right, but just over different timeframes, Doc’s more so in the immediate, and Jesse’s in the medium-term – they are leading to the same outcome by next year anyway, so it is just more a difference on how long they see the Fed continuing to hike, and what the collateral damage from that will be.
In talking to them both regularly, and understanding where they are coming from, they are actually looking at things in a very similar ways overall. They both stated and agree that the economy is getting weaker and slowing (and it absolutely is and the Atlanta Fed data has been confirming this). They both conceded in prior conversations and even before we started recording that we have had a stagflation backdrop with persistently high inflation, high energy prices as a tax on everything, slowing growth, and there is data showing businesses are starting to fire and shed workers and and US jobless claims are on the rise.
Both agree that the Fed should never have expanded their balance sheet for so long, or taken on so much debt, should have ended QE far earlier, and that the central bank is the one that juiced these markets artificially higher for so long, so now they are a day late and a dollar short in putting the inflation genie back in the bottle again. Both Doc and Jesse have mentioned in prior discussions with us that the Fed got started far too late in hiking rates and should have started way earlier when the economy was stronger in 2021, and only differ in how long they see the Fed being able to continue hiking.
Both of our guests knew inflation was going to be stickier even by early to mid 2021, and that inflation would last longer right out of the gate and had no illusions it would be “transitory” (when so many main stream financial media bobble heads felt inflation was simply ticking up for a month or two back in March/April of 2021 due to “supply chain issues” and would pass in month or two and simmer back down). Both Doc & Jesse repeatedly have stated the Fed should have been less dismissive of inflation being “transitory” and that their policy was now way behind the curve and that they won’t be able to “normalize” rates by getting the Fed funds rate up above the CPI rate of inflation (last reading was 8.6%).
Lastly, both agree that there is a high probability of further market weakness coming, and a slowing and weak economic picture developing into a recession, induced by this aggressive Fed tightening policy and other macroeconomic factors that have been well underway since the Great Financial Crisis. They both mentioned that general market rallies should be faded (or even shorted), and that there is plenty more pain in store for the general US equity markets and a larger leg lower still to play out.
Both Jesse & Doc are also big fans of the precious metals and believe Gold and Silver are in a secular uptrend, and both believe the commodities like base metals, oil, grains, may pull back some more in the short to medium-term, but that they are also still in a larger commodities upcycle over the next few years. Again, overall their thesis and outlook is essentially the same, but only seems to differ slightly with regards to how soon the Fed will have to halt their rate hiking cycle and eventually reverse course, which will correlate with when the precious metals get moving again.
Jesse feels we are getting closer to the tipping point, and that after the July FOMC meeting rate hike, and possibly after the September meeting and planned rate hike, that it will become more clear that the Fed will not be able to just keep hiking so aggressively; whereas Doc feels they can stay the course possibly a bit longer, thus keeping the PMs under pressure for a bit longer. Jesse feels things could turn up just a little bit sooner than Doc based on this timing, but they are essentially looking at the same basic pattern unfolding. Both see it only as a matter of time though before the Fed will be forced to stop their tightening cycle and then eventually reverse course again.
Ultimately they are both coming at the macro picture from similar vantage points overall, and really only differ mildly on what they expect in the next few months. Again, both see more general market pain on the horizon, after the dead-cat bounce is finished. Both believe the ingredients are there for a recession, and with 2 potential back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth, the data is there to support their views in that regard.
Both believe the Fed is way behind the curve in tempering the inflation that they unleashed through easy money policies, and both see gold doing well in the medium to longer term. In addition both noted that the current weakness in the PMs and the gold and silver mining stocks would be an excellent buying opportunity to accumulate, and both are looking for the uptrend to resume where we’ll see higher prices by next year.
Both are very sharp guys and we are blessed that they share their insights with us here at the KE Report.
Thanks to all the KE Report guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Jesse & Doc.
Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!
Treasuries’ Worst First Half Since 1788
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (07/02/2022)
https://mailchi.mp/felder/treasuries-worst-first-half-since-1788
When The Smart Money Says ‘Sold To You’, Part Deux
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – June 29, 2022
“Back in December I noted that, even as retail investors were putting on risk in the equity markets to a degree we had never seen before, corporate insiders were taking the other side of the trade and selling at the fastest annual pace on record. And while many are now marveling at the damage that has been done to some of the stock market’s speculative favorites, I think it’s important to not lose sight of the fact that the insiders at many of these companies were sending a very clear caution signal in the lead up to the recent crash.”
https://thefelderreport.com/2022/06/29/when-the-smart-money-says-sold-to-you-part-deux/
Gold Stocks Enter the Contrarian Dream Zone
David Erfle – Friday July 1st, 2022
“The gold complex came under more pressure this week on the reiteration by the US, UK, and European central banks that they are willing to do whatever it takes to combat inflation at the Annual ECB Forum on Wednesday. This was followed by more selling into quarter-end on Thursday, despite U.S. 10-year Treasury yields moving below 3%.”
During the European Central Bank live-streamed event from Portugal, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was “running against the clock to beat inflation.” Fed policy makers have no choice but to keep raising interest rates to achieve this, although there is no guarantee that it can provide a soft landing for the economy, Powell said.
“Is there a risk we would go too far [with rate hikes]?” Powell stated. “Certainly, there’s a risk. The bigger mistake to make, let’s put it that way, would be to fail to restore price stability.” The U.S. has experienced continuously higher inflation for more than a year, and it would be “bad risk management” to just assume that those longer-term inflation expectations “will remain anchored indefinitely in the face of persistent high inflation,” Powell added.
“Overall, recession talk has grown as U.S. data continues to disappoint and commodity pricing responds to deliberate Fed-induced demand destruction. And as the world’s largest central bank continues to make adjustments to its “unconditional” fight for price stability, recession risks are getting more visible in the daily macro data.”
https://mailchi.mp/4d0580439045/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1601030
When Will Fed Stop Rate Hikes?
Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA – The Daily Gold – June 28, 2022
“In this video we present and discuss how the market is answering this question. We can look at indicators such as Fed Funds Futures, Swaps and Eurodollar futures. These things currently anticipate a Fed pause in December or February 2023 and a rate cut in March 2023 or May 2023.”
https://thedailygold.com/video-when-will-fed-stop-rate-hikes/
Gold Stocks are Extremely Oversold
Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA – The Daily Gold – July 01, 2022
“Gold stocks have broken down technically, but they are extremely oversold.”
“Let’s start with GDXJ, which is rebounding today after testing support at $32.GDXJ is arguably the most oversold or the second most oversold (Covid crash) in the last six years. When the market is this oversold, it typically enjoys, at worst, a decent rebound.”
“No HUI stocks are trading above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, and yesterday 48% of GDX stocks (all HUI stocks are in GDX) made a new 52-week low. In the last six years, the only time new 52-week lows spiked that high were at the 2018 and 2020 (Covid crash) bottoms.”
“The macro is also lining up in Gold’s favor as the 2-year yield plunged to as low as 2.72% this morning, inflation expectations have rolled over, and the Atlanta Fed model shows we are in a recession. The market is now aggressively pricing in rate cuts in 2023.”
“Later this month, the Fed will likely take rates up to 2.50% to 2.75%. Should the 2-year yield and inflation expectations continue to fall, this will certainly be the Fed’s final rate hike. It makes sense that precious metals would bottom right before the last rate hike.”
“Now is the time to be a buyer of weakness.”
https://thedailygold.com/gold-stocks-are-extremely-oversold/
Gold bugs wanted inflation couple years ago to drive stock market down and suppose to push gold to $3k and $5K and 10X in juniors.
Well you got inflation and stock market declining into recession and what happen to metals, they are tanking.
Last year and half we been hearing $100 gold and metal going to soar and 2022 was the year, then we need $2100 gold and then 2023 will be year.
Now we’re going to see 1700 gold gold stocks bleed heavily. I guess all commentators and analyst were wrong for last two years and they couldn’t believe their eyes when everything tanked after August 2020 highs and OH it’s consolidation waiting for bounce but went on for year and half, then we get bounce and they all woke up and chirping here we go, inflation, stocks sell off and again wrong now it’s more downside for another year and nobody knows. If gold made run last time from 1675 say to 2100 maybe you get to 2300 and by time inflation has done it’s damage gold miners will need not 1900, or even 2100 but 2300 to adjust thier future mines to be viable.
What now all the junior stocks that put out their PEA have to rewrite them and raise even more money and dilute stocks more.
Hope all you gold bugs are happy you got inflation and stocks crashing and it’s going to ruin the global economy and many people are going to loose lot wealth a whole lot more than you greedy gold bugs are going to make. It’s only going to create a worsening quality of life for many and most gold bugs are going to be wiped out of wealth if you haven’t lost slot already.
Paul – Gold bugs did not create inflation and crashing stock markets. Monstrous leaders did, along with YOU and your ilk who did nothing effective to stop them!
+1 Good point BDC, terrible govenment fiscal policies and central bank monetary policies are what caused this mess. Also I don’t understand Paul’s “greedy goldbugs” swipe, as gold is the insurance against fiscal and monetary malfeasance, and has actually held up well all things considered. How is it greedy to hold gold as a hedge as goldbugs do? That is just wise planning and hedging… not being “greedy.”
If any parties have been greedy it has actually been the generalist investors speculating in the artificially induced everything bubble. There was runaway speculation and greed where every new speculator and punter came to believe markets can only go up, and that they were geniuses by having a one-way market perpetually backstopped by Fed liquidity.
These genius investors weren’t discerning, didn’t care about silly nosebleed valuations, and most had no clue about even understanding half the nonsensical growth-tech, crypto, defi, NFTs, stay-at-home stock, meme stock, SPACs, etc… garbage that they were all piling into like lemmings. Their rationale was pricing was going higher therefore they were genius investors. (even though that is what happens in every bubble.)
These newly minted stay at home speculators on Robinhood, WeBull, Stash, and even legacy generalist investors ate up comments and all the speculative fervor from the lame stream media that claimed valuations didn’t matter, the Fed had their backs, they were going to HODL (Hold On for Dear Life) and that they all had “diamond hands” to hold through any weakness.
It was their hubris that they believed they were savvy stockpickers or visionaries seeing the future arrive through their growth and crypto/de-fi picks. Like Rick Rule often quips, “Most investors confuse a bull market with having brains.” Really it was the result of the artificially inflated everything bubble, and their error in calculation was that it would just keep inflating. That false belief in a forever bull market and endless expansion has been their undoing.
When the pin of bad fiscal and monetary policies finally popped the bubble (further accented by the terrible pandemic policies and the Ukraine war, but which would have happened regardless) they were not prepared for a true bear market. Goldbugs warned that a bear market was likely (again, how is that greedy? – it isn’t)
These same investors and mainstream financial media bobbleheads were also not remotely prepared nor expecting persistently high inflation. Goldbugs and any economists with a clue warned higher inflation would be the result of excessive liquidity, not due to greed but rather simple logic and deductive reasoning.
Nobody is celebrating higher inflation as it an insidious regressive tax on everything, and hurts the little guy and average citizen more than anything. Gold bugs warned of this eventuality, and were seen as alarmist. So now one guy claims goldbugs are suddenly “greedy” for trying to protect their families wealth and purchasing power in the face of inflation with PMs… give me a break with that nonsense.
Goldbugs also warned an inflationary recession or stagflation was a likely outcome of the fiscal government policies and central bank monetary policies (where the actual greedy motivations are actually on full display). Now it is abundantly clear we are already in stagflation and heading into a recession. Once again, just like with inflation rising, growth slowing, valuations actually mattering, the everything bubble popping, and a bear market ensuing, the clueless general investors are likewise unprepared for stagflation or a recession.
So no… goldbugs are not “greedy” for desiring to preserve their wealth and purchasing power with gold. Is it not wise to preserve one’s purchasing power in the face of currency debasement and erosion of purchasing power through persistently inflation? Knocking on goldbugs as being “greedy” for having the insurance hedge of gold in one’s asset mix in light of all the financial and geopolitical chaos not only misses the mark, but it is a ridiculous notion. Nobody is trying to get rich holding gold, they are trying not to have their life savings eroded and evaporated. Clearly some people don’t get it, and will never get it.
Conversely the greed was on full display for many years in the general markets and crypto markets with excessive speculation, and the silly belief that they could always buy the dips because the Fed would alway have their back. Now it is clear the Fed does not have their back, and not only is inept at recognizing the inflation they would create or at properly getting on top of it when it mattered, but these central banksters are totally fine with the markets continuing to correct and even taking the economy into a recession if it saves whatever credibility they have left.
Now even the dimmest light bulbs are going off in main stream financial media outlets about the sea change in these markets and in the economy. Finally they are waking up from their speculative party in a bear market hangover and realizing the real headache hasn’t even started yet, and the goldbugs were right about how things would unfold
In the end, now that the chickens are coming home to roost, it turns out these speculative punters didn’t really have diamond hands.. more like butter fingers.
Instead of HODL (Hold On for Dear Life), when the poop hit the fan they were predictable in that they actually RFDL (Ran For Dear Life).
Real things = commodities resurfaced over the last 2 years as having actual intrinsic value . Oil and Nat Gas, Coal, Uranium, and Lithium proved not to be dead for good after all. Many Base Metals like Irin, Palladium, Copper, Nickel, Zinc, Tin, etc.. made all time highs in 2021 or 2022. Agricultural commodites – ie… food, made a comeback as having real value as things have started falling apart an in the face of high inflation. Boy, who would’ve guessed. 😉
Look, let’s keep things in perspective… Gold made a new all-time high in 2020, anticipating the coming wave of financial chaos from the insane government policies well underway an insane amount of new money creation (the source of inflation). In addition, Gold was just up over $2000 again near the ATH in March – just a few months ago. Sure, it has corrected some recently, but not nearly as much as other sectors since the 3rd and 4th quarters of last year… when the cracks started showing (not just since this calendar year started). This too shall pass and both the fundamental and technical setup points to much higher prices in the PMs, and that will eventually be reflected in large moves higher in the mining stocks. To be positioned in these sectors, in light of the macro backdrop, is just common sense. Keeping one’s belief that things are going to just return back to “normal” again in the general markets is foolish.
Didn’t say they created it just wishing for it so they can get rich but doing so will create less quality of life for many and most working class will suffer.
I like to see gold higher but would rather see it gradually and prosper in stock market over long term and we all do well.
Many on this site and others are invested in the PM sector for a dual reason – one is aligned with the physical metals and the other is totally different on the speculation on volatile mining stocks.
Gold is an insurance to preserve purchasing power in the difficult times ahead, caused by terrible government fiscal and central bank monetary policies. It’s not for getting rich, it’s for preserving wealth and purchasing power as inflation continually erodes fiat currencies buying power.
Gold also tends to pay off and grow during times of chaos and uncertainty– like we’ve been living in the last few years. It isn’t going to go meaningfully higher if everything is just peachy in the economy or world. Gold is a safe haven, not a speculative growth tech stock or crypto. They are apples and oranges
The stock markets and most asset classes have already been overly artificially juiced higher for a dozen years by easy money liquidity, so that ship has already sailed…. and those policies and actions have consequences.
The last dozen years was the time to make big money speculating in the general equities, and it was unnaturally extended far longer than it should hsve been allowed to by excessive amounts of liquidity.
Those patterns will come again… but after the recession rolls through… and after the hot air is let out of the everything bubble. First though, the pendulum must swing back down to correct the silly valuations and overcooked markets.
Now comes the hangover after the frothy party and capital injections for the wallstreet junkies that needed ever easier money like addicts. Now comes the market withdrawal symptoms and slowing economy after being high on free magical money creation for so too long.
As for the resource stocks, they are speculative trading vehicles that have periods of both feast and famine. Sometimes they move hard to the upside and the downside, as leverage to the moves in their underlying commodities.
In the past 2 years we sawbig moves in many companies with exposure to the commodities that were moving higher – Oil, Nat Gas, Coal, Palladium, Lithium, Uranium, Copper, Nickel, Iron, and other base metals.
We’ve seen some nice rallies in PM stocks periodically as well for a few months at a time, but they have been trades and fades, not buy and hold longer term holds, as we’ve mentioned on here for over a decade. Currently, with macro economic, geopolitical, and technical framework we see, Gold and Silver look set to have another run higher for all the reasons already outlined above. So those speculating on the PM mining stocks have a thesis that precious metals prices will go higher over the next 1-2 years. It’s that simple of a concept, and no different than speculation in any other market sector in that regard.
I’m sorry Paul…… how wrong of me to want my investments to go higher….of course I’m confused how my investments going up are at the expense of the middle class while cryptos,real estate or any other mania plays aren’t …….and gold so far has held up pretty well considering the run it had up to $2100…. looks better than cryptos right now …… real estate could do another 2008….. it’s all relative……and when you talk middle class which part are you talking about????…. up here in Canada many of the unionized jobs(especially of government varieties) have COLA so inflation doesn’t effect them.
+1 Wolfster.
BDC:
Sadly Paul nor Ex nor I could have done a thing to stop this. I remember calling my Senators and Congress member to say not to bail out the banks years ago when that blivey hit the fan. It was to be blunt pissing in the wind. Imagine a politician, any politician, going to the voters and say we need to have recession today to prevent a worse one in the future. Imagine how that would go over? The Fed shares lots of the blame – they just kept blowing bubbles and now there isn’t another one to blow. Personally I am expecting a couple of years of stagflation mixed with a recession to boot. We have to clear out all the malinvestment and lots of debt and that will take some time.
Good points Mike. Yes, the average citizens or even gold bugs, preparing for ymthe inevitable outcome, did not ask for any of this.
This was manufactured by politicians, bankers, and the global elites. If people want to be outraged it should be at anyone that supported over a decade of “emergency” quantitative easing, bank bailouts, company bailouts and “too big to fail” nonsense, insane government fiscal packages stuffed with cronyism pork, helicopter money, and the rest if the insane policies since the Great Financial Crisis that of course would have consequences. Now the chickens have come home to roost, and the bear market in general equities and tech trash zero growth pie in the sky nonsense must get washed out… not much different than what we saw after the Dot Com bubble imploded, followed by speculative bubbles in housing that imploded. This time the everything bubble has imploded and it is not finished yet.
CONGRESS…….. IS WORTHLESS…………….. you are lucky if, you have 10 congress persons, that have a clue…. and are not on the take………..
Agreed OOTB. Most politician are worthless, owned by lobbyists and special interest groups, with no clue. Unfortunately most of them have been in the sewers in D.C. for decades and are quite entrenched. Like we’ve been saying for years “term limits.”
Ditto Ex…………. TERM LIMITS……… END THE FED………….. 🙂
100% OOTB. Happy Independence Day to you and your family Jerry.
People get the government they deserve…
Ex……… same back to ya……….. Have a Happy 4th……… and to anyone else, that might read this…..
Paul enjoy the blowback from the gold bugs blaming the world for their woes.
Yes until the underlying gold sector equities show outperformance vs gold, and in particular the much touted silver of the past near two years, it’s more of the same with the pop up rallies. Underperformance on the upside and overperformance on the downside. And with many of the dregs in virtual collapse.
If those producing and selling the stuff can’t make money or better still, stay afloat with 1800 gold then gold/silver will need to double or triple that price, as long predicted by the pundits here for the past couple years.
Then following gold equity Friday’s one day outperformance vs gold/silver, gold bugs tout a significant hope factor. Problem is we need this to be a trend and not an event. All the other babble gab and sponsor opinion from those talking their book is meaningless.
What about YOUR woes, what do you suppose they’re due to? The answer is clearly your staggering ignorance and refusal/inability to learn. Market corrections will ALWAYS be a problem for you, there’s no doubt about that.
You and billions like you are the reason for the world’s woes since ignorance is the only evil.
Just like clockwork. the resident market guru emerges. Again spouting an abundance of market history and generic babble gab while sitting as the ultimate bag holder. Dependent of course on whether he in fact did follow his own advice, forever bottom picking new lows with gold sector equities for more than a year.
Yup, like clockwork. Everything worthwhile is babble to an emotional midwit.
Jonsyl – There was no blowback due to blaming the word for woes, but there was pushback on Paul making a ridiculous comment that gold bugs were “greedy” for wanting the stocks they invested capital in to go up, and then conflated it with them wanting so see everything go to crap so their Gold would go up. Instead he clarified he wants some utopian fantasy where gold gradually goes up and everything is still hunky dory in the general markets. That is a wack perspective for multiple reasons.
1) That isn’t a likely scenario after over a dozen years of QE and central bank interference in the supposedly free markets. Now that the central banksters are withdrawing their financial heroin, the general market junkies are going to need to go through their own withdrawal symptoms. The general markets are in a clear bear market and have been for some time now. Next up is a recession. Why not plan for that accordingly?
2) Gold goes up when there is financial and monetary malfeasance, chaos, and a lack of confidence.
As Jesse so aptly pointed out, if all the growth tech frothiness, meme stock fervor, crypto craziness, NFT nuttiness, and insane valuations in general equities, real estate, collectible art, you name it was the “everything bubble,” then gold is the other side of the that trade and is the “anti-bubble.” It’s a bet that the bubble is popping and the liquidity is drying up… which it clearly is.
3) In the case of gold, people that actually place their money into the metals, or even the flawed paper derivatives, are doing so because they want to store their wealth in something that has a history of preserving purchasing power for 5,000 years, and is also doing a fairly good job over the last few years of continuing that tradition. Again, it’s an insurance product and hedge for the rest of one’s portfolio of general equities and a safe haven… not the latest tech stock flavor of the day. When currencies are eroded by inflation, gold retains it’s purchasing power. This is why Gold has been making record highs in almost every currency on the planet the last 2 years. ding… ding… ding… there’s your bell ringing.
3) People are not greedy for taking the other side of the trade and doubting whether the central banksters, who have repeatedly lied to the public and repeatedly flip-flopped on policy, will fail at executing a supposed “soft landing.”
The odds are high that the Fed will not pull off a soft landing… just look at the last 8-9 months in the general equities markets, the economy putting in back to back negative GDP growth quarters, and the wheels starting to fall off the labor bus. Betting on Gold is a protection against the lunatic policies we see out there, that are only getting more extreme.
It’s no different than people betting on the Don’t Pass line on the craps table looking for the 7, instead of the masses hoping not to see a 7 on the dice. Statistically 7 is the most likely number to roll, so taking that bet isn’t greedy, and there is a thesis behind it.
4) If people went all in on Bitcoin piling into it as it hit it’s all time high, was that for something noble or was it for greed?
If people piled into Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Netflix, Snapchat, whatever… was that for something altruistic, or was that greed?
If people have retirement savings wrapped up in ETFs and Mutual funds with Blackrock, Fidelity, or Vanguard, all piled into the same few dozen stocks is that because they want to them to go down?
If families want their retirement money to go up, (which also camped out in all the usual stock equities) then does that make them all greedy too then?
You can see the ridiculous logic in all these assumptions and questions, but it was equally as ridiculous for Paul to proclaim PM stocks investors are greedy for wanting to see the stocks they placed capital in go up as well.* (huh?)
*For goodness sakes, anybody that ever invests in anything, be it a stock, a house, a business, a collectible, whatever hopes it goes up in value or why in the heck would they invest in it in the first place. By that rationale anyone that puts money into a bank CD, money market, mutual fund, ETF, retirement fund, buys gold, buys a home, buys a business are all just greedy people. The whole point of any these actions is to compound your wealth, if that’s greedy, then by default all people are greedy except homeless people that only take and don’t invest in anything. Rubbish.
5) If people see the market forces and trends and work and believe something like gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, nickel, zinc, oil, nat gas, uranium, lithium, rare earths, whatever are going to appreciate, and there are related extractive companies with a bank of said commodities in the ground, then they are placing bets on those companies stock appreciating along with the underlying commodity. How is that any different than investing in any other sector because one believes it will appreciate? (here’s a clue, it’s no different).
That is where the blowback came from Jonsyl, but apparently you can’t discern the difference.
I really don’t understand why you even come here to post, as you apparently need to continuously take swipes at this sector, disparage the people that invest in resource stocks, and continually insult the contributors and guests to this platform. If you don’t like it here, then why in world do you keep coming back here to rag on your “dregs” mining stocks? It’s funny that when these stocks rally for months at a time going up multiples, you are not here praising your “dregs,” so clearly you are only here to be a wet blanket.
Why not go hang out on some other site where you have more in common like CNBC or Bloomberg or Coinbase? Just a thought. You’d probably be happier there…
Fuck off, Paul…
My childish comment above is in contrast to Ex’s intellectual heavy weight rebuttal to your poorly thought out comments. If you do not see the real problem now, you may never see it. Powell is not a stupid man meaning he is complicit with the reset…
Ditto ……….. on POWELL………… sheeple are so clueless, …….
Dollar Index : Summer 2022 : Resistance Challenge
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/07/dollar-index-summer-2022.html
The problem with all these discussions is that we are in totally uncharted waters. Consider these facts:
– never have we seen such Gov. debt
– the collective balance sheets of the various Feds is a mess
– the markets are driven by cash inflows into passive investing vehicles and asset quality appear irrelevant.
– the Eurodollar markets are bubbling and suggest issues are headed our way
– energy markets are driven by Putin’s war and he will hold the world as a hostage
– same for grain markets, hence food markets, and large scale starvation in places like Africa appear almost unavoidable
– Covid hasn’t disappeared and new variants are always possible, maybe inevitable
– China appears to be headed to invading Taiwan and challenging the World for ownership of parts of the Pacific
– While crypto is a mess it still exists and who knows where it will head in the future
– We and the world are probably already in a recession and demand for raw materials will fall sharply
So, making conclusions about the future based on a past that may not be relevant is hard to do.
I fear we need to sit down and look at PMs in a new way and I have no idea what that is. One thing I am sure of is that we can’t look at PMs and miners in isolation. We all need a broader context to view them. There are people trying to figure out different parts of this picture – we just need to find them and listen to what they say. I believe we need a new framework to view all this mess and again I have no clue what it is.
Good luck to all, I expect the next few years to be a very bumpy ride.
It seems like the best way to “kick the can down the road” for another unsuccessful delay of facing reality and still enabling the banks to continue defrauding the taxpayers is a massive infrastructure bailout and a restructure of the monetary system, including loss of Reserve Currency Status for the US which is already in process. That could alter near term and long term outlooks.
You think May and June were bad?
July will be like hell.
Nothing is safe, NOTHING!
If you haven’t sold now and cashed up, you will soon.
And if you don’t, well, I say to you what I’ve been saying to Biden voters… YOU GET WHAT YOU DESERVE!
SELL NOW!!!!!
It apparently still needs to be repeated that this gold correction has multiple drivers and the continued assumption that the rising Fed Funds Rate is the primary one is unfounded. Correlation does not prove causation. Contrary to a “sticky” popular belief, rate hike after rate hike throughout the 1970s caused no drop in the gold price. The two went up in lockstep and then fell in lockstep after some lag around the turns. For example, one hike cycle peaked at 13% in July 1974 but gold kept rising until that December when the FFR was at 8%. From there, the FFR and gold fell together for the next 18 months. Then it was only the FFR that kept falling until November that year (1976). The next FFR hike happened in August 1977. Gold was in the $140s and the new FFR was 6%. From there, gold and the FFR rose in lockstep as usual until October 1979 when gold reached the $420s (a triple!) and the FFR hit 15.5% (well over a double!). The next month, the FFR was cut a large 1.5% to 14% and gold (of course) fell 13%. From there, we know that gold took off and spiked 135% in under 2 months to its infamous 1980 top. Being the canary in the coal mine that gold is, it quickly priced in further inflation and the FFR spike was right behind it as Volcker hiked from 14% to 15% two weeks AFTER gold topped and then again, one month later, from 15% to 20%. That was a whopping 5% hike (6.5% total) AFTER gold was already plunging. So did gold hate that 5% hike? Nope, if anything, that 20% FFR gave gold another jolt as it instantly began a 60% rise over the next 4 or 5 months. And that was it for the inflation of that decade AND the rising rate super cycle that began in the 1940s. Gold went up 25 fold and silver went up more 36 fold while the FFR went to the moon along with them.
Today, few can see the forest because of all those damned trees that have popped up during the 40 year cycle of falling interest rates.
One more big detail that most, especially the “pivoters” like Stephanie Pomboy, seem oblivious to is the fact that when the Dow dropped nearly 50% between January 1973 and October 1974, the FFR was hiked 11 times with only a single cut along the way (the cut happened after 8 hikes to 11%, it was then cut to 9% but then hiked to 10% the next month and 11% the month after that and then to 13% a couple months later). The Fed did not care one bit that stocks were falling; it did what the market forced it to do. A lot of people are very confident in their misperceptions about the Fed’s priorities and it’s going to cost them.
Most also gloss over the fact that gold fell about 70% over the 2 decades following the 1980 top while the FFR fell by more than 70% at the same time. Yet the myth persists that a falling FFR is somehow good for gold.
I just don‘t get it. You all stubbornly refuse to take I to account the aspirations of the Elites to disappropriate all of us via the Great Reset. “ Nobody will own anything#.
Now, if you consider this to be a conspiracy theory than please say so.
Than you should explain why hundreds of leading politicians of all continents meet in Davos every year and swear themselves into the necessary procedures to achieve those goals.
And they openly talk about it.
So Cory, Chad, I’m on my knees begging you to start discussions about the subject.
I’m sure a lot of your listeners like me are middle-class people, which, i.m.h.o. is about to be destroyed.
To put it in a few words: It’s all by design.
Hi Michael, we’ve talked about the Great Reset with a number of guests, sometimes off mic, and sometimes in the interviews. I agree with you that the Elites that meet in Davos have a plan for controlling society, population centers, energy use, technological tracking, social credit scores for more control and the their version of the green new deal… which is a bad deal for freedom and individual liberties.
Personally, I’ve written about my views on the subject many many times here on this blog for over a dozen years. I believe Cory thinks the Great Reset topic is a bit too doom & gloom to keep focusing on for our daily editorials, and that they should be more focused on investing, economics, market commentary, and company interviews. Ever upwards!
The WEF really did make a promotional video that said “you will own nothing and be happy” but such entities aren’t known for drawing the masses’ attention to their true intentions. I’d say it’s more likely that it was put out there to scare those who are generally, if vaguely, awake and paying attention.
Central banks and their owners have been ravaging everyone’s wealth, health and freedom for over 100 years and the covid scam just gave them the cover they needed to accelerate the theft exponentially. BUT, imagine how relieved everyone will be when 2030 gets here and we all still own something. Most will own a lot less but it won’t be “nothing”.
The rule of law is increasingly being ignored to aid the brazen censorship and looting of the people so there’s good incentive to attempt to tamp down dissent with the strategic dissemination of scary official agendas, real or not (and some of the worst ones ARE real).
It’s too bad that so many investment sites cater to the fragile feelings of the most clueless, gullible willfully blind and irresponsible part of the population.
+1
+ 5 + 5
I think we all know there are things wrong, it is just the interpretation of facts that gets fuzzy. The Law is the Most important fundamental to regain protection of the people under our Constitution. Misuse or misinterpretation must end.
Core , Chad, We all need to step up and have rational discussion about the world’s big problem…The Jewish elite problem… Jewish zionist/communism, racism & supremacy ..Sincerely..Truth to Power..Poppie*….
Chad, Matthew, thank you for treating the matter seriously.
From a European perspective, the president of the European Commission is already planning to install a wealth-register and in Germany our leftist leaders are preparing a law that will force everybody to buy long-running treasuries, something we experienced shortly after the 2nd WW. It was called “Lastenausgleich” and designed to distribute the burden and the damages of the war on all shoulders. At that time your property was mortgaged with 50 %.
This time you will have to reveal everything: money, stocks, precious metals, real estate etc.
I can tell you: The threads are real.
I’m already planning to leave the country.
I understand the frustration Michael, and many of us were sounding the alarm on what has become the WEF long ago, back when the Great Reset was called Agenda21 and then retooled into Agenda2030. I started doing lectures on the elite secret cabals in the late 90s exposing the Trilateral Commission, Council on Foreign Relations, Bilderberg Group, Bohemian Grove, Skull and Bones, etc… and the incestuous 2 headed snake of the supposed 2 party system in the US, also mirrored by the entrenched elitist brotherhoods operating in Europe in Great Britain, France, Germany, and Switzerland.
At one point, you realize focusing on solutions is more appropriate than constantly pointing out the corruption. I shifted over into prepping, alternate energy ideas, permaculture, and how to live sustainably, but that got a bit hippie-dippy. After the Great Financial Crisis and being in insurance, banking, and retirement planning at that time, I got more interested in trying to build an economic life-raft for my family and friends, and that is what got me more focused on following the Precious Metals sector as one of many positive things everyday citizens could do to protect themselves from government tyranny.
Some great topics…………. covered over the last 20 yrs…….. THE KER politics was a great sounding board, … some just did not listen, and now it is in everyone’s face.
Agreed OOTB. I think sometimes people get on the blog here with an idea that just hit them personally (ie… like a few years ago when everyone suddenly woke up to the “deep state” and how corrupt the CIA, FBI, and Justice department was…) even though that had been obvious for decades… and discussed on here for nearly as long. Haha! Then people think it hasn’t been discussed, when sometimes it has been discussed dozens and dozens of times. Oh well, it’s a forum of ideas, so I guess we can always discuss it one more time…. 🙂
Here’s another meeting of the crony elites gathering to determine the fate of the world (likely planning how they can implement some carbon credit system or warn us all of impending doom from climate change as they all fly to this event in private jets using more fuel collectively than small towns do all year). The hypocrisy never ends…
____________________________________________________________________________________________
When Private Jets Ferry Billionaires to Small-Town Idaho
Benjamin Mullin – Sat, July 2, 2022
“The occasion is the annual Sun Valley conference, a shoulder-rubbing bonanza organized by the secretive investment bank Allen & Co. Known as “summer camp for billionaires,” the conference kicks off this year on Tuesday, and it draws industry titans and their families — some of whom are watched over by local babysitters bound by nondisclosure agreements. In between organized hikes and fly-fishing at past gatherings, there have been sessions on creativity, climate change and immigration reform.”
“For decades at these secluded gatherings, CEOs and board chairmen have made deals that have shaped the TV we watch, the news we consume and the products we buy. It is where, near the ninth hole of the golf course, the head of General Electric expressed interest in selling NBC to Comcast. It is where Bezos met with the owner of The Washington Post before agreeing to buy the paper, and where Disney pursued a plan to purchase ABC — with Warren Buffett at the center of the discussions.”
“Much like the activities of the conference, elements of the travel there are shrouded in secrecy. Many jets flying in are registered to obscure owners and limited liability companies, some with only winking references to their passengers.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/private-jets-ferry-billionaires-small-130052714.html
Some of the comments underneath this news article sum things up quite well:
@Richard – 18 hours ago
“Nothing like a bunch of billionaires flying their private jets into a small Idaho airport to discuss how to solve climate change and forcing everyone else to buy an electric car or walk to work.”
@Killer – 18 hours ago
“As gas prices soar largely to dissuade the working class from using gas powered vehicles, the captains of industry use jets to move around the world. It doesn’t get any better than this.”
@Paul – 18 hours ago
“This is where policy is really determined. These are the people who call the shots in this country; the politicians are merely shills.”
@Dave – 1 day ago
“They are working to determine which politician to buy or what to lobby for”
@Dlp – 17 hours ago
“Billionaires don’t lobby, they choose whoever they want from a Capitol building full of folks highly desirous of being owned. There are far more judges and other politicians for sale than money, so the price is LOW.”
@John – 18 hours ago
“While they preach to us to reduce out carbon footprint. Rules for thee but not for me indeed.”
Yes, many terrible threats are real yet most believe the lie that the world has become freer and more civilized over the last 100+ years. There are a lot of good reasons for that belief and paramount among them are propaganda, complete ignorance of history (accurate history, that is), tech and human resilience. The middle class in the US has already been destroyed relative to a few decades ago but tell that to the debt and tech soaked young adult of today and you’ll get a blank stare at best. They don’t know any better much less the reasons for the fall, nor do they care. The entire West is now loaded with humanoids that have no clue what natural rights are and would find them “radical” and dangerous if you tell them. The rights they believe in and fight for aren’t rights at all but privileges. Collectivism is civilization’s terminal cancer and it’s been metastasizing for over a century.
Bingo. Well-stated Matthew.
Quite the profound observation with collectivism as civilization’s terminal cancer, and apparently it’s been metastasizing for over a century. Considering it’s taking this long for this cancer to take hold, personally not too concerned about heading into this heralded abyss.
You think it’s taken this long to take hold because you’re a byproduct of the abyss (which of course you can’t detect). Far more people would agree with you than me since most people don’t know anything about anything and therefore have mostly twisted, unsound/immoral and incorrect beliefs about virtually everything of any sociological significance.
As your masters are well aware, you respond impulsively and predictably to stimuli, not unlike an insect.
Michael – The Davos mafiya may no longer be the only game in town. Rumbling our way is the increasingly stable Gold Ruble. Talk of a non-Dollar commodity currency has been ongoing for years, now with intense seriousness, and it would likely be Ruble connected. The 8 year US/CIA war on Russia, via the Ukraine, has probably been driven by this.
Is it time for Treasury Bonds? TLT or IEF
.
I held TLT for about a week, but with it being effectively a 4-day weekend, I sold on Thursday, not being smart enough to know if the run has legs, or just another flash in the pan.
.
Right now, it looks like only oil companies and possibly T-bonds are worth looking at.
.
https://schrts.co/zKzAHEHC
Several of the folks we’ve had on the show (like Dana Lyons and Steve Penny) felt there may be a brief bounce in bonds as they were pretty oversold, and we’ve seen a little pop in TLT and IEF in the bonds over the last 2 weeks.
Marc Chandler also brought up the topic of I-Bonds on Friday’s show, that are currently paying 9% as a way to get a more neutral position that was keeping pace with inflation for a way of storing capital in the short to medium-term. That’s another interesting defensive option investors can mull over.
Ackerman has his barbell with treasuries on one end and gold on the other.
Thanks Ex and Terry.
10-4 good buddy, and good topic of discussion – the bond market.
Bond Holders Look to Recession for Salvation After Vicious Half
Liz McCormick and Michael Mackenzie – Bloomberg -July 2, 2022
– Yields have pulled back as economic contraction risks increase
– Data on jobs and wages will be focus in holiday-shortened week
“Treasury holders reeling from the most brutal first half on record are starting to bet that a worsening economy will deliver some relief from the relentless selloff even as they brace for the risk of more weakness.”
“With the specter of recession looming bigger by the day, expectations for where US policy rates could ultimately go are being dialed back and some bond buyers are dipping their toes back into investments at these new, higher yields. But inflation is far from defeated and there’s trepidation that the first half rout — which saw close to 14% wiped off global bond portfolios despite stocks also plunging — could be extended even if growth stagnates.”
I’m quite impressed with your answers, Chad and Matthew, thanks a lot.
Sounds good Michael. If you want to discuss any of it further, you can always email me at:
Thanks for listening to the show, and for contributing here on the blog. May your trading be prosperous!
The only way to stop criminals, no matter their status in the community, is to prosecute them in accordance with “ criminal statutes”.
Failing to prosecute fairly and equally, then forces those impacted by the criminal behavior to rationalize the criminal actions in hopes it circumvents the injustice giving the Victims some relief. It won’t. Pointing the finger elsewhere, spinning the truth or using such things as force and violence or deregulation or altering responsibility will never do anything but delay failure … when all that ever had to be done was hold people accountable for criminal/corrupt behavior under existing laws.
As a long time female observer of this site, I have not added comment to date. I am now compelled to do so.
To put a fine point on it boys.. What the hell !!
The world is falling apart.. Europe is in a shambles. The once great USA is ruled by the insane, with what looks to be the help of all the important alphabet names. We are in a horrible inflation spiral, bubbles everwhere. A very expensive war we have no real reason to be involved in, just buying/adding more suffering! And you all are debating when or whether the PMs will go up? Really… do we honestly have a choice ? Sure, buy some exrta necessites, get off the grid, but really how many people can do that. All of our protections are slowly being removed.. as we fiddle! History it seems has tought us nothing, real history that is! There can be little doubt that if we act like sheep then we be lead to our demise!
Thanks for posting kitk and for sharing your gender with everyone. I’m a long time male observer of this site FYI for full disclosure, but may identify with being non-binary later today after brunch. 😉
Yes, there are no shortage of things going off the rails, that is for sure… and we’ve covered a lot more than just gold prices in the show and on this blog, but most of it was set in motion long ago by the sheeple you mentioned, with the inability to see the consequences of the terrible policies enacted.
Since most of that is now out of people’s control, then the best thing to do is work on building an economic life-raft for one’s family and friends, to become less dependent on the system, to have prepared for periods of time of major disruptions, to work on being self-reliant, and to be a good member of one’s local community, living our lives as our message. Cheers!
Just Paddling While The Empire Burns
The Burning Platform – June 28th, 2022
“The phrase ‘fiddling while Rome burns’ is an intriguing idiom, referencing the great fire which ravaged Rome for six days in 64 A.D. and the legend that Nero, one of the most sadistic, decadent, and cruel rulers of all-time, instead of taking action to stop the fire, played his lyre while composing a song about Rome’s destruction. The Roman historian Tacitus wrote that Nero was rumored to have sung about the destruction of Rome while watching the city burn but it’s likely this was just a myth.”
“Whether this story is true or just a parable, the messages are pertinent throughout history, and never more so than now. Occupying one’s time doing inconsequential things while a catastrophic event is underway is the ultimate in leadership failure. Focusing on trivial matters while your people are suffering during a time of crisis is the mark of an ineffectual irresponsible leader or one whose true purpose is to burn down society so it can be ‘built back better’ in the form of a communist totalitarian state ruled by a globalist elite cabal.”
“One cannot ignore the parallels to our American empire in flames as Biden, the hordes of hyena politicians in Washington DC, their captured corporate propaganda media mouthpieces, central banker fiat printing enablers, and the Davos billionaire cadre are attempting a controlled burn of our world, but it has become a conflagration destined to rage out of control and consume the planet in flames.”
“We are most certainly living in a time of crisis, as this Fourth Turning hastens towards our rendezvous with destiny. Not only is the American empire burning in an abstract sense, but once the ANTIFA, BLM and pro-abortion terrorist groups (all funded by Soros and Gates) hit the streets, the country is literally burning. The chaos, havoc, violence, and vitriol are all being engineered by the puppeteers/invisible government who control the minds of the masses through media manipulation, non-stop propaganda, technological deceit, and social indoctrination through government schooling. It was succinctly described by Edward Bernays nearly a century ago and has been perfected by those in governing the world today.”
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/06/28/just-paddling-while-the-empire-burns/
It’s all a Lie – Government reports prove Cost of Living Crisis & Travel Disruption is being done on purpose to advance ‘The Great Reset’
By The Expose – June 14, 2022
“Planes, trains and automobiles. All three of these things are constantly being talked about in the mainstream media at the moment alongside a cost of living crisis, war in Ukraine and an alleged monkeypox outbreak.”
“Flights are being cancelled left, right and centre ruining planned holidays for thousands. Trains are about to come to a halt in the UK thanks to a “spontaneous” national rail strike. And the average person can just about afford to get to the end of the forecourt after filling up thanks to the spiralling cost of the price of fuel.”
“Whilst on the face of it, these things may seem like unfortunate events occurring at random, the truth is they are actually all occurring by design, and official government reports alongside historical data prove it…”
https://expose-news.com/2022/06/14/cost-living-travel-disruption-great-reset/
Rationing Has Already Started In Europe As The Entire Globe Plunges Into A Horrific Economic Nightmare
By Michael @ IWB – June 29, 2022
“If countries in Europe are already beginning to ration certain things due to “supply problems”, how long will it be before it starts happening in the United States? Up until the past couple of years, many of us in the western world always considered shortages to be something that only “unsophisticated” poor countries on the other side of the planet had to deal with. But the last couple of years have shown us that painful shortages can happen to wealthy countries in the western world too. At first we were told that they were “just temporary”, but the months went by and we just kept having more shortages. In fact, in 2022 “supply problems” have become so serious that many supermarkets in Europe have been forced to strictly ration essential items at various times. For example, it was being reported that due to the war in Ukraine flour, sunflower oil and sugar were all being rationed by stores in Greece…”
“Sporadic shortages of products like eggs, milk, and other dairy products also hit Spain since the war in Ukraine began. And major supermarkets including Mercadona and Makro began rationing sunflower oil earlier this month. Now, stores will temporarily be allowed to limit “the number of goods that can be bought by a client,” according to information in the Official State Gazette published on Wednesday.
“Looking forward, natural gas rationing is the next big thing that many people in Europe are talking about. The flow of Russian natural gas into Europe has been cut back, and it appears that this may soon cause widespread rationing in Italy…”
GOOD TO HEAR SOME ………..NEW VOICES………………..
No matter what they say, the central bank doesn’t have the balls to raise rates as high as they should be based on inflation….correct me if I’m wrong but I believe rates should be anywhere between 1-2% higher than inflation rate…
No longer The Fed, now NO BALLS! LOL! DT
There is nothing like a name change while you wait for the inflation fever to cure itself. DT😉
The trouble is if you raised the rate 2% above the official inflation rate of 8.6%, the The Bank lending rate would be 10.5%. All that would do is wantonly crash the system but inflation would remain because real inflation is around twice that amount at 16%. An unhappy predicament! DT
Bingo DT. That is why they are up the creek without a paddle…
Hecla dropped below it’s 50 month MA. I’m hoping back up the truck moment will arrive at $2.65.
That could be a good support level to watch in Hecla. Thanks for sharing that HL chart CaliJoe.
Agnico is one of my favorites, pays nice dividend. It could drop below $30’s and I’m buying more.
Baba is my biggest trading position while PM complex undergoes corrective phase. Baba meets textbook reversal criterias. 1) No one trusts Chinese equities, 2) low volume 3) Gaps gonna get filled
Baba is my biggest trading position while PM complex goes through corrective phase. Baba meets textbook reversal criteria’s 1) No one trusts Chinese equities 2) Low volume 3) Gaps gonna get filled
Chinese stocks are in Stage I bottoming phase and nearing Stage II Accumulation/Advance phase. You’ll likely do very well with BABA. May also want to take a look at BZUN; EDU; PDD; VIPS just to name a few.
Bitcoin plunged down below $19K briefly last night, but bounced back up to just above that level this morning. Currently at $19,027.
https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin
I wish it would fall out of bed during the week during normal trading sessions, so I could access trading in it via GBTC, but as noted previously, the weekends are often the most volatile time in the cryptoverse.
Still if we see a nice breakdown into the $18K region again to kick off the trading week, then I may take stab at an initial position, and would be open to adding more at $16K or $12k or $10k and average down into a solid cost basis for a speculative swing trade.
Consumer Confidence Dips Low In The Face Of Inflation
Chris Vermeulen – Friday July 01, 2022
“As the Fed continues to posture future rate increases to battle inflation, recent economic data shows Consumers are in a state of shock as price factors continue to skyrocket. Food, gas, materials, etc have shot up in price over the past 24 months – with no end in sight.”
“Global inflation is putting pressure on central banks to thwart excesses in the markets after 8+ years of easy money policies and nearly 2+ years of COVID stimulus. Consumers thus seemed to have switched into Survival mode very quickly over the last 6+ months. This reaction could have very telling outcomes for global GDP and regional economies over the next 24+ months.”
“In August 2021, we published an article highlighting the shift in consumer activity. It brings attention to how important Consumers are to the overall health of the global economy.”
What does the Gov do when the Fed Agenda of supporting the Member Banks and Transferring Wealth from the US Treasury, come in conflict with massive debt levels, high inflation and unemployment.
That may be the more important question or questions.
Inflation, Stagflation or Recession: Where Is the Economy Headed?
Marcos Cabello – Peter Butler – Amanda Push – July 2, 2022
“Inflation is steep and economic growth is sluggish. Economists say that a recession, or even stagflation, is a high risk. Stagflation (a rare combination of high inflation and high unemployment) ravaged the US economy in the 1970s and early 1980s. Soaring prices mean that gas, food and necessities are more expensive, and a slow economy means it’s harder for Americans to earn money, secure employment and save.”
“The economy is scary right now. Prices for basic consumer goods are skyrocketing, and wages aren’t keeping up. US households, particularly low-income Americans, are feeling severe financial strain as inflation has surged by 8.6%, the largest annual rise in four decades. And job cuts are starting to roll in.”
“The stock market is also taking a hit, with the S&P 500 down 20% this year. The Federal Reserve plans to continue raising the federal funds rate to try to slow the economy. Many financial experts are concerned that we could soon be facing a recession. The World Bank warned in its June report that the global economy could be facing a period of stifled growth, leading to broader financial destabilization.”
“Fears of stagflation — a period defined by rising prices alongside slow economic growth and high unemployment — are also accelerating among Wall Street analysts and economists.”
Add that the “checks and balances” have been undermined by special interests, deregulation, politics over The Constitution and Control of the Financial System deferred to The Fed and its Private interests, It appears to set up a move to an authoritative form of government based on the absence of democratic principles or a guiding Constitution protecting personal freedoms. Rather a government directed by concentration of wealth and power of a few. It appears our leadership neither wishes to Act to avoid this outcome or wish to pursue the actual symptoms of destruction before them. The undermining of the Legal System can be a fatal event.
It is sad track things are on, but it’s been derailing for a very long time in an extremely slow motion train wreck.
HL fell right to the same fork support that stopped its fall 7 weeks ago for a double bottom of sorts. It also did so with a significant RSI bullish divergence.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00622027105&a=871262235
More important fork support was also retested:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p44688792630&a=877925433
For HL and the sector in general, the odds favor a low here.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p59554499680&a=1105450469
I like the symmetry of the March-April high and the May-June low:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p07162647003&a=1163581562
HL:KTN is down almost 50% and SILJ:KTN is down about 40% since I nailed their tops in March with some rebalancing (actions stated here at the time, not conveniently after the fact)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL%3AKTN.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p02319935534&a=1130587745
I remember you posting that chart and mentioning you were selling some Hecla to put more in Kootenay. Good trading Matthew, and good read of the HL:KTN ratio chart at that time. Nicely done!
KTN has been on a good wicket last few months.
HL took out its May low last week but not when priced in GDX and that’s bullish (a form of “risk on”)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL%3AGDX&p=W&yr=7&mn=6&dy=0&id=p13989414538&a=863999268
Phillips Baker, CEO of HL was on Kitco recently talking about a new mining technique which will significantly boost their production. He owns alot of HL shares and just bought another 147,000 at end of June.
When priced in commodities (CRB) instead of dollars, silver exceeded its 1980 high by almost 17% two years ago…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24CRB&p=M&yr=25&mn=11&dy=0&id=t8393293686c&a=1189668128&r=1656878781383&cmd=print
The Gold Miners New Highs-New Lows Percent Index melted down to a new 7 year low last week for a one week change of minus 1,300% (the number of new lows jumped by 1,300%).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDXHLP&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p64655186588
matthew, hi. thank u for the charts good holydays to u. i bought 2 packs to cankun all incl. only $8oo more, then usual. but still silver is cheap. bought some plat. coins. probably now under mining cost. was in ukraine when the war started. u still think that putin is part of banking cartel?
Hi Alex, silver is indeed cheap. As for Putin, the whole world is a stage and he takes orders from people behind the scenes just like Biden. He’s more a pawn than a part of the banking cartel whether directly or indirectly.
GSR……………………. 91 to 1………………. Silver very interesting again……..
$USD via DXY has potential price objective of 120. It won’t be a straight line to the figure/level but, we’re heading there based on the Monthly.
GDX reached its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement last week…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17326134804&a=1198476362
XAU found support where it should have. A weekly close below last week’s low would be bad news.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&yr=6&mn=9&dy=0&id=p38202824374&a=949748838
I couldn’t resist buying Nova Royalty today. It’s down around 75% from its all-time high. Hopefully not a bad way to play copper long term. Although I could easily see it dropping a bit more from the 1.50 level it hit today.
I hope it works out, I bought cxb, amc, xgd. Hopefully they will be 30 percent in 3 weeks.
Everything up in Sydney and Hong Kong Tuesday morning.
Let’s hope it means something that the rest of the World sees things differently than the US.
SLV turned at fork support after gapping down on Friday…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69031230108&a=994384467
SILJ gapped down and reversed on Friday while probably marking a low…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p26253088945&a=1199299939
3 forks tested last week:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=5&mn=1&dy=0&id=p87272607696&a=601108946
GDX gap down and reversal:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p28564828623&a=994644671
IPT made a new 6.5 year low versus GDX and (incredibly) found support at the intersection of two old Schiff forks…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AGDX&p=W&yr=9&mn=11&dy=0&id=p73548316239&a=1199307650&r=1657003946835&cmd=print
Trends : https://tinyurl.com/4ypebbv9
Possible PM pop. Dollar rising.
NatGas summer bound?
Oil questionable.
Too much Dollar strength,
and down markets.
For now.
Hecla Acquires Alexco Resources, I think we knew this was going to happen. Maybe IPT will be taken out. LOL!
https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/AXU/news/8174082734455424/HECLA_ACQUIRES_ALEXCO_RESOURCE
Looks like Alexco shareholders not too happy after price run lower before buyout offer.
Maybe shareholders should vote down the offer: but maybe don’t have the votes against insiders. I don’t know…
Lake, The only way shareholders have a chance is if there are multiple offers, otherwise the backroom boys will get their way, they always do. DT
DT
You are probably right. I sold my Metallic and rolled it into Impact in recognition of the Alexco offer. Looks like JPM very active in silver this morning, my guess.
As i mentioned a few months ago…i know…lmao…the euro/dollar currency pair is breaking down…now below 2016 low…and if at .85 below the 2000 year support….capital flight could be expected to US markets over time…
About two months ago Rick Ackerman predicted The US dollar would go to 1.0945. We shall see! DT
Note his latest comments about Tesla, and especially Boeing:
“A friend whose firm sells electronics to the aircraft manufacturer says $400 million airplanes are sitting unfinished for want of parts — sometimes small, relatively inexpensive ones — that are out of stock. The problem is exacerbated by tie-ups at the Port of Los Angeles, where union rules forbid unaffiliated truckers from picking up containers. Electronics components are stuck in Malaysia and Taiwan, the friend said, and some of his back-orders stretch out to three years.”
https://www.rickackerman.com/
I think the HECLA news is great! Even if there is no competitive offer the shares of hecla are deeply undervalued and represent a value hold proposition. They are good operators and have capital. This is way better than a dilutive financing.
If Hecla happy then price too low. It is when no one is happy that price could be closer to value. 🙂
My guess that those (corporate persons) that previously pled to felony charges of Forex manipulation are at it again. No one to stop them.
Silver’s COT report showed dramatic improvement last week yet again and that’s despite not including the $2.50 plunge that came after the reporting cutoff. Now it is down hard again on reporting day so this Friday’s reading should show another big improvement. The commercials just might intend to get net long before this is over.
The following chart will update after the market closes:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46859401648&a=1199723462
Once SLV broke its 600 week (roughly 12 year) MA the first week of May, it fell straight to the 600 week EMA and then bounced to backtest the broken 600 week MA for 3 weeks. Then it dropped to slice right through previous support at the 600 week EMA and run straight to the rising 350 week (roughly 7 year) MA where it sits now, just above another possible fork support…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&id=p34187171069&a=619821453
From last Thursday:
The senior gold and silver miners (XAU) ended the month on an ugly note but there’s multiple supports not far below including two Schiff forks, a 6 year uptrend and the 360 month/30 year MA and EMA:
(Today, July 5th, those supports are still below.)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=M&yr=18&mn=11&dy=0&id=p60552808756&a=1030155748&r=1657045390333&cmd=print
It took today’s AXU news for HL:GDX to take out its May low but HL will still be a much better buy than GDX when the two finally bottom.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL%3AGDX&p=W&yr=7&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26461096147&a=863999268
SLV with Fibonacci based MA and pivot supports:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77061585394
Demark pivot support at 16.57
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35777829144
The loonie has barely made a new low but is still well contained by fork support that held when first tested 2 months ago and again 1 month ago. It has not confirmed the USD’s “strength” because that strength is relative mostly to the euro which is losing purchasing power faster than the USD.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p28084751848&a=1173355739
It might be ok if it goes below the important Schiff fork support that it’s currently sitting on (blue) but I don’t want to see this month close below it.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=M&yr=16&mn=0&dy=22&id=t9293110111c&a=387462925&r=1657047568128&cmd=print
With the opposite of good follow through on Friday’s action, crash potential remains.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=6&mn=9&dy=0&id=p52898572474&a=1199762287
SLV’s anchored VWAP since it began trading in 2006 is 22.64 and since the 2008 low, 23.20. For comparison, PAAS remains above its equivalent anchored VWAPs.
Charles Savoie and Antal Fekete couldn’t be more different in their analysis of the silver market but both understand its significance and someday soon, a few more will begin to understand.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=M&yr=9&mn=7&dy=0&id=p06791841286&a=1134198398&r=1657050794770&cmd=print
Doc is right. Powell is in bed with Claus Schwab’s great reset ” you’ll own nothing and be happy”. At some point Jesse will be right but not any time soon I’m afraid.