Doc’s Monthly Technical Outlook – Gold, Gold Stocks, Silver, US Markets and Interest Rates
Richard Postma, AKA Doc joins us again at the end of the of month to recap the moves in metals and markets. We start with gold and gold stocks including the recent major M&A with Gold Fields acquiring Yamana. We then move on to silver which Doc points out is in a dangerous place. Next up are the US markets which continue to act like a bear market and are dictating a lot of the selling in all sectors. Finally we get Doc’s outlook on interest rates, both market wise and continued Fed rate hikes.
The charts support the silver miners beating most things. Relative to QQQ, SILJ is still up 30% since December and could be heading higher immediately…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AQQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p54151083233&a=991875219
Since the crash lows of 2020, SILJ is up almost 50% versus GDX despite greatly underperforming GDX for the last year+. That SILJ:GDX correction is now ending…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p65926745263&a=723223990
As the silver miners bottom versus the gold miners, tiny caps like Impact Silver are bottoming versus larger silver miners…
IPT vs SILJ:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37600948074&a=1020825224
Ok Matthew I like your conviction..It sure seems like the gold thing should cost a whole bunch more USD’s by now…So I agree…..If this swing low from May 12th 16th area of miners vs gold does not hold we will go to those lower targets discussed…and that I do know…why we will go lower just makes no real sense…….also, remember we are only in week 7 of a TD9 count down on weekly /GC….so the turn can happen on 8 or 9 or the bar after 9…It is a pattern that works…The dollar put in a swing low on the TD9 day count just as mentioned last Thursday….and the /GC weekly has technicals that could easily support that directional change…In fact the slow stoch is already forecasting that…but it is likely the equity markets begin down next week…so now you need miners diverging from general equity and dollar strength…..so to say that this turn if arriving is easily forecast is B.S….lmao
It wouldn’t surprise me if you get your TD9 buy to coincide with the full moon in 2 weeks from now.
GDX continues to avoid its 2 hour chart KAMA so it is probably getting ready to fill that big gap from the 19th of May…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=120&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=t8919688821c&a=1176978446&r=1654121394764&cmd=print
now that is a comment of interest….my GDX day TAS profile has a slightly bullish structure and price touched the center today…A place where buyers and sellers agree on price…..But I am waiting for something to cause sellers to dump to the bottom TAS profile line where buyers are happy to purchase at 30.31 and close that gap and constitute a swing point retest and double bottom and do it with either light or preferably huge volume…and reverse hard with a spiral up on 5 minute chart…that would lock in an intermediate low!…I must believe in the TAS algo…..literally I am waiting with faith on that man made mathematical hence g-d inspired truth to be expressed…lmao
https://tos.mx/qyyDY6L
With Mercury retrograde ending tomorrow and going direct on Friday the 3rd, maybe GDX will continue its sideways-to-up movement for another few sessions before finally falling quickly to fill the gap. However, hurting that likelihood is the fact that Saturn goes retrograde on Saturnday the 4th.
Interestingly, reinforcing your TD9 date with the June 13th full moon is Mercury ending its conflict with Saturn on June 13th.
ok matthew…retro is back in fashion…sounds good
“Retro” is actually what we don’t want at this time.
Interesting Matthew. I didn’t realize you incorporated astrological patterns into your analysis. I’ve seen others, including Bob M. mention that, and there used to be a guy they’d bring on Kitco that utilized some of the astrological alignments and movements, and the lunar waxing/waning/full/new patterns in their trading. I’ve not looked into it personally, but it wouldn’t surprise me that different forces affect human emotional/mental states and thus trading patterns. Thanks for sharing that unique perspective.
alright alright…i thought you were being playful Matthew….I also did not know you did the astro angle in trading…live and learn…
Larry, I can see why you thought that since I never mention our guardian angles. 😉
Mercury began going direct a few hours ago, btw.
HL
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p80181722743&a=1174402329
SILJ megaphone reversal…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96492962174&a=1174343623
An important speed line breakout for SILJ:SLV is still roughly 25% above the current level…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3ASLV&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p36440326992&a=795168406
Green I’m glad your on the correct side! And no we did not hear that he here first lol. Jerry is my witness and you need to go back sometime to see what i have been preaching. Further to that as Matthew stated the bottom in many miners happened sometime back and has yet to be broken.
Ditto…………….. Green is …….. should we say…..green………. 🙂
With oil holding in the 115 area and summer demand and china reopening could drive oil above 120 and you could see crash in stock market and along with stocks come gold, silver stocks, along with major recession coming economy will fall off and no need for silver demand.
We had big run up to all time highs in metals 2016 to August 2020 and over 1 1/2 consolidation, we just had oversold bounce and now with all the negativity out there metals will continue to grind lower.
All we heard from the analyst was when gold broke 1900 it was off to races, well now because of inflation all the gold miners need 2100 gold before we take off, and need another 2-3 years to get the 2400-3K area.
I’m hoping for another mover end year or early 2023 for gold to test 2100 and I’m taking a lot off table because we could be looking at another multi year consolidation in metals before we see 3K.
Check out Gary Wagner he calling for 2100-2200 gold when next move comes and we won’t see 3K for many years.
Gary Wagner is another technician who has been around plenty and has gotten plenty wrong as well. He is no expert in his approach imo.
Glen
All technicians have gotten things both wrong and right many times, and the key is to get more right than wrong and make money trading. No system is flawless or always correct. In that sense, I think Gary Wagner brings a lot to the table and openly shares which trades they put on that worked, and which ones didn’t, and he gets more right than wrong.
That doesn’t mean I always agree with him (because I don’t always agree with anyone), but I’ll always take a few minutes to review his technical outlook, combining Japanese candlesticks, Fib extensions/retracements, and EW. I’ve been following his work weekly for about a dozen years, and have learned a lot about technical analysis from Gary Wagner over that time period.
Well said +1
Impact might have one more relatively small move lower versus Franco Nevada before it begins to outperform it for a long time. As you can see, IPT smokes Franco when the sector turns bullish…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AFNV.TO&p=W&yr=6&mn=7&dy=0&id=p14853611751&a=645379702
In case the chart above is shortened to 5 years…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AFNV.TO&p=W&yr=6&mn=7&dy=0&id=t7328753483c&a=645379702&r=1654113643649&cmd=print
Interesting chart of IPT:FNV and an interesting point for investors to consider about how the tiny torqued up growth-oriented producers/explorers like Impact Silver can really make outsized moves compared to industry stalwarts like the big boy royalty and streaming company Franco Nevada.
Personally, I’m excited to see the next pattern play out where the Impacts of the world start to really outperform the “safer” more established larger-cap stocks like the Francos. Over the next year we should see exactly that play out, and will likely surprise many investors which stocks actually end up out-performing.
I’m biased in this example as I’ve got one of my heavier portfolio weightings to Impact Silver at this time, and have never had a position in Franco Nevada, but the illustration you provided is a good one and I hope more investors will ponder it for a moment.
Based on the gold miners golden cross index, this pullback is worse than the 2020 crash…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21GCIGDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p00643587682&a=1177833549
Can someone post link to doc postman’s blog site? Tks in advance.
Hi Alfred. To the best of my knowledge, Doc Postma doesn’t have any other investing site, and the KE Report is his preferred blog site to message with investors. Hopefully he’ll see this and be able to confirm that one way or another.
Thanks for getting back to me. The blog is mentioned in the podcast…if it is KER what are you considering a blog? I don’t see any blogs on this website….
We consider these comment sections under the interviews to be a “blog” of sorts, and often Doc Postma will pop on these comment threads and share some ideas or reflections with us. In the interview, when Cory mentioned he’d read some of Doc’s comments on the blog where he had been discussing which stocks he was nibbling, it was on here.
If today’s action holds up and tomorrow gives similar action, a retest of the lows will become unlikely.
HUI:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p59636561431&a=1172579925
Doc, where one is fully invested in mining shares, is it your opinion that one should hold here and not sell and try to get them a little cheaper? I am in no way in a hurry for them to rise and do not need the money and am inclined to hold and wait for the eventual rise in the share price. What is your opinion?
$21.65 remains a critical level for spot Silver.
I am looking for an explosive move up in the silver miners to begin sometime between now and the FOMC meeting in mid-June (the sooner the better), especially relative to the Nasdaq.
This is quite a contrarian call IMO since these stocks have been languishing at their lows for some time now.
Just remember, you heard it here first.