Erik Wetterling – War Premium Reversal Slams Gold Back Down, Yet Value Is Still To Be Found In The Wasteland Of Junior Miners
Erik Wetterling, Founder and Editor of the Hedgeless Horseman website, joins us to share his view the steep reversal in gold from overnight trading on Ukraine war premium and then pricing getting slammed throughout the US trading session. We reviewed the anticlimactic nature of trading today in the metals and related mining stocks, where even with the crazy geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop, even good news in gold mining stocks is a non-event. Despite the higher gold and silver prices, that would have sounded quite appealing to investors just a few years ago, most of the junior stocks are still lagging and not confirming these moves higher in the metals.
Erik continues to see unrealized value in juniors across the board, but especially in those companies that are continuing to derisk projects and that are conducting meaningful work, but are not getting rewarded for it. Eloro Resources (TSX.V: ELO) is one company he highlighted as an example that just put out one of their better drill holes to date with little fanfare, after a year of putting out solid newsflow, and it has pulled back down with the rest of the sector.
Eloro Resources (TSX.V: ELO) announces high-grade assays from Bolivia
Trevor Abes – 23 February 2022
– Eloro (ELO) has intersected up to 507.64 g/t silver eq. at its Iska Iska Project in Bolivia
– Additional highlights include 204.03 g/t silver eq. over 28.57 m and 186.75 g/t silver eq. over 19.65 m
– Ongoing drilling is testing a major magnetic anomaly and a potential tin porphyry, among other targets
Kind of like BOZO BIDEN ………. What an IDIOT………..
The pitchfork gave the low and the high for GDX:SPY…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p89682552704&a=1117562805
Amazing chart, Matthew. I haven’t looked at that one for a while.
(GSV) Gold Standard Ventures Reports Robust Feasibility Study for South Railroad Project With a Peer Leading 62% After-Tax IRR and 1.6 Year Payback at Spot Gold Prices
Feb 23, 2022
Gold & Silver Set To Soar As Bank Accounts And Crypto Wallets Come Under Threat
Clive Maund – Sunday, February 20, 2022
“Of course, the most secure form of investment at this time is physical gold and silver, but if they advance then so will gold and silver stocks and we are seeing large gold stocks that pay good dividends such as Barrick Gold and Newmont Corp starting to take off higher on strong volume in a manner which suggests that they will not be giving back their gains.”
“We’ll start by looking at the big picture using Larry’s long-term chart which shows that gold has been moving within a gigantic Bowl or Cup pattern following its correction back from its 2011 highs. Whilst it may be initially disconcerting to see it failing to gain traction over the past year or two when it contacted the Bowl support lines we should take into consideration that the rate of rise in 2019 and 2020 had become steep which is a reason why a “Handle” often forms to complement the Cup which serves to unwind the overbought condition resulting from the steep rise, and that is what the long consolidation from the 2020 high appears to be. Another point is that even though the price may seem to be breaking down from the Cup by moving sideways through its boundary, this is normal if a Handle forms and is not bearish – on the contrary it creates the technical setup for bigger gains. The big question then is “Will gold continue to move sideways to make a larger Handle or not?” It doesn’t look likely. Given what is now going on with mounting inflation, the prospect of war in eastern Europe and a failure of confidence in the banking system etc. it looks like gold should accelerate to the upside from here, possibly dramatically.”
Chris Vermeulen – Gold price rally will power to $2,700, then $7,400 as ‘perfect storm’ brews
Feb 21, 2022 – Kitco News
The ultimate inflation hedge debate; What is the best way to beat rising costs?
Feb 22, 2022 – Kitco News
“Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management and Lobo Tiggre of The Independent Speculator, discuss the best ways to beat inflation with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.”
0:00 – Inflation outlook
14:34 – Gold vs. stocks as inflation hedge
21:22 – Commodities vs. inflation
23:40 – CPI vs gold
32:10 – Gold price outlook
Is $10,000 Bitcoin Price the Next Stop? Gareth Soloway Breaks it Down
Stansberry Research – Feb 22, 2022
“The governments around the globe are going to have to start taking away money from the system instead of pumping it in,” says Gareth Soloway, president and CFO of InTheMoneyStocks.com. “Bitcoin is like a risk-on asset so it’s treated like a tech stock,” he says to our Daniela Cambone, as he sees a bearish decline for the crypto as a massive buying opportunity, “on the way down.” Investors have to take a longer-term view of bitcoin investing, he says, due to the macroeconomic and inflationary issues, “which are just not bullish for bitcoin.” Soloway predicts a massive move up for gold in 2022, slating its performance will outdo bitcoin and the stock market.
Canadian Bank Freeze Proves Why Fed Dollar is a Dangerous Idea, Warns Rick Rule
Stansberry Research – Feb 23, 2022
“Inflation really is about negative real interest rates, debt and deficits, and quantitative easing,” says the founder and CEO of Rule Investment Media, Rick Rule. “On a ten year horizon, I am much more concerned about the bond holder than I am about the equity holder,” he says to our Daniela Cambone. Rule breaks down the value in trading uranium smartly, “as inflation continues to be the deterioration of purchasing power.” The price of gold seems to have found a stimulus, he says, “and the wind is in the sails of precious metals.” Justin Trudeau just gave us one reason why you do not want a digital Fed currency, as bank accounts have been frozen in one of the most, “chilling circumstances other than nuclear war,” he concludes.
Russian troops enter Kyiv … Dow futures up…. Paper Gold down …
Really….
When does the new Central Bank of Ukraine open?
Some of the selling we are seeing in the precious metal markets is spillover from the conventional markets. Traders need liquidity and with all the margin money out there we could see some real sharp drops in The Dow, as forced selling takes hold. Another thousand point drop in the Dow and margin calls will start flooding in. DT
DT – Based on that spillover effect, then do you see what is setting up as a “sell everything” type of environment?
Hi Ex, the selling that I see will not start because of fear, it will be forced selling, the dumping on the market of hundreds of millions of stock held in the name of traders whose margins were exhausted or about to be exhausted. Speculative credit is honeycombed everywhere and in everything in the multiple debt bubbles.
Fear, however, will not be delayed as the price structure crumbles and there is a stampede to get out. Word will get out very quickly with mass instant communication, ” The bottom is dropping out,” and the selling orders will double and redouble.
Nothing will be safe, the market is just too big for The Fed to handle and to contain, there will be no support. Down, down, down, for everything. Initially it will be a sell everything event. DT
Yeah, there were likely throngs of new investors that just opened up trading platforms in the last 2 years due to lockdowns and a shift to working from home, that were totally all-in on speculative tech sectors, meme stocks, and high-flying momo stocks that have likely been served margin calls over the last 2-3 months as their stocks at nose bleed valuations just turned into regular blood in the streets. Selling does beget selling, so I could see where that process would feed upon itself with margin calls leading to forced selling, leading to more margin calls, etc…
Another thing we had mentioned in multiple interviews were company insiders selling in record amounts at the end of last year… that was a bell ringing that smart money was dumping shares to the ever-bullish dumb money and was a clue that topping process was underway in many stocks.
We also pointed out repeatedly starting in Q3 and Q4 last year that the underlying market breadth readings were terrible with many individual stocks diverging from the moves in the indexes and making 52 week lows.
It is likely that a lot of investor capital was wiped out and went to money heaven over the last few months, and it will not be rushing to get back in to “buy the dip” like was assumed to keep on in perpetuity.
Hi Ex, I keep thinking that in the face of all this tremendous liquidation are brokers loans as compiled by The Federal Reserve not deserting the market but coming into it in numbers undiminished. Today the markets were being supported but who is holding all of these securities, surely it isn’t The Bankers or The Fed. Like you said the smart money is handing the play off to the dumb money. They are using the margin accounts to buoy the market, at least that is how I think it is happening. This is not a good sign.
We all know something is wrong but they will do anything to keep the game going, as long as they can avoid the spotlight. DT
FREAKY FRIDAY……… Again, and again, and again………..
ONE BILLION OZs……. DUMP
SILVER MARKET RIGGING RIGHT IN OUR FACES!
After the price of Silver penetrated the 200 day moving average Bank of America had to dump 1 Billion Ounces of Derivative Silver (that they don’t have) onto the COMEX just to get the price back below the 200 DMA technical level.
That’s more silver than is mined in an entire year affecting hundreds of thousands of people in poor mining communities around the world…ESPECIALLY MEXICO!
Where are the Social Justice Warriors in the Biden Administration on this one?! CRIMINALS!
BIX WEIR……… article…
The satanist elites aren’t against gold, they’re just against gold for you and me. That will never change. Those dreaming of getting rich on their PM shares are delusioned.
Norrareal…………… They want it all………… NWO……… hard at work…….
Klaus….. says …”YOU WILL OWN NOTHING”… should give everyone a hint…..
No Conspiracy There………… go back to sleep……….. lol……..
Doc did mention the Ides of March. 😉
Yup, he marked the low with that comment and his 91% cash position.
HL went up 37% since then and looks just fine after yesterday’s reversal.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p75176891502&a=1037810281
The big golds also look just fine.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p04156174553&a=1115085819
Yesterday’s plunge and bull hammer marked the end of the loonie’s 5 week decline.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80796348151&a=976992598
GDX is still stuck at fork resistance but did manage to get back-to-back weekly closes above its 100 week MA for the first time since early July.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p00871435316&a=940285795
Any further pullback in GDX vs SPY represents another opportunity to sell the stock market and buy the gold miners. (My opinion, not advice!)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55163221341&a=1117898319
Yesterday gave SPY vs GLD a perfect A-B-C correction (since the C wave is nearly identical in drop to the A wave). The questions now are how high the bounce will take it and will it turn into a 5 wave drop.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY%3AGLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p88239892542&a=1117900061
Here are a few important resistance levels (speed line, 50 week MA, fork) above…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY%3AGLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p08099122428&a=1117926655
Thought I would have a peep at the KER crew and see what the thoughts are during these volatile times. Specifically around PMs, I enjoy the various perspectives. My two cents worth: Fundamentals within certain markets and assets have been flipped on their heads or eradicated all-together.
Gold and silver for example have behaved curiously in recent years. Inflation has become well entrenched across the board in the last 12 months at a high level, yet gold has been somewhat muted in its response to these inflationary figures. Why is that? Also uncertainty and subsequent demand for safe-haven assets remain high. Again gold muted, so why? Fundamentals are only as reliable as the rational basis from which they are based on. If people ignore the fundamentals or dont believe in them then the basic principal of that fundamental is a mute point. Put another way: Sentiment overrides all other logic, whether correct or not. So if the masses are worried about inflation and subsequently choose to protect their wealth in other assets, how can gold sustain its long held fundamental as an inflation hedge or a safe-haven asset? It cant… Not least in the short term.
Now of course there are other factors to contend with (corruption, manipulation, competition, uncontrollables etc). However these variables also apply throughout other sectors. I guess one has to ask themselves whether they are a trader (short term player) or an investor (long term player).
Gold and silver are quite sensitive to the events of the world and can become quite the roller coaster. Which I guess is why it deters many from participating in the PMs space. Significant events affecting PMs can be viewed as short an long term “black swans”. A short term black swan for example is Russia invading Ukraine, the Reddit Wall St silver movement or Donald Trumps elctoral victory in 2016. These particular events play out in a matter of days. They are initiated by massive volumes of people chasing the market due to a perception of uncertainty or rumour… A FOMO like movement if you like. But without warning the bigger players cause a reversal (legally or not), the price begins to retreat and before long those who rushed into the market are now rushing for the exits. That same herd mentality movement that drives the price up also drives it down. This is the perfect environment for short term players (traders), particularly in smaller markets where the moves are exacerbated due to volume relative to market size.
A long term black swan would be the GFC or the covid-19 pandemic. With a time frame of months if not years this event has more variables but perhaps more margin for error. These events encompass not only all economic related factors but most of all lifes factors too, hence why they take longer to play out. Sentiment and emotion still plays its part in this environment but its not as extreme. So there will still be a flight to certain assets causing a price climb. There will also be that inevitable rush to the extis. However, rather than exiting to maximise profits this time its done amongst the back drop of margin calls and “forced” liquidity being fed by fear. Being a broad long term event, everything is affected by everything else (a definite con of globalisation and complex inter-connectivity). Due to its timeframe this is more the investor type environment. Rather than timing the market its time in the market. A safer bet for those not chasing a quick buck.
What has become apparent in all types of events is the sentiment overiding the fundamentals and technicals (one can argue sentiment and technicals are more closely related). Perspective and context are important though. Eg: Gold ultimately improved significantly price wise from pre-GFC to when the correction had run its course. Same applies when one looks at the price of gold as a comparison from pre-covid to now. Therefore what is ones position on the table: trader or investor???
Asset Hoarding: The Ultimate Risk/Reward Strategy Right Now
Erik Wetterling – The Hedgeless Horseman – February 24, 2022
$NKG.V $ELO.V $MNTR.V $HWG.CN $WRM.AX $NVO.TO $PEX.V $CBR.V $ESK.V $NICU.V
https://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/investing-strategies/thh-asset-hoarding-the-ultimate-risk-reward-strategy-right-now/