Weekend Show – Markets and Metals – Featuring Doc, Dana Lyons, and Brian Leni
Welcome to another KE Report Weekend Show! On This Weekend’s Show we focus on the weakness in US markets, flat gold price and jurisdictional risk in resource stocks. While most of the declines in markets can be attributed to central banks tightening monetary policy, we focus on where markets are going from here when rate hikes start to kick in.
We hope you all enjoy this Weekend’s Show. Please keep in touch by emailing us at Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Richard Postma, AKA Doc kicks off the show by sharing his outlook for US markets, commodities and gold. Doc recently stated he shifted to over 90% cash, we get the reasons why.
- Segment 3 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager and Editor at The Lyons Share updates us on his recent bearish market calls for US equities. We focus mostly on US markets and gold. Click here to learn more about The Lyons Share.
- Segment 4 – Brian Leni, Founder and Editor of The Junior Stock Review wraps up the show by switching focus to resources stocks. We focus on jurisdictional risk for miners and explorers. Click here to visit Brian’s site.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Ridgeline Minerals – Acquisition Of Robber Gulch Oxide Gold Project In Idaho, And 2022 Exploration Strategy At Selena And Swift In Nevada
- Summa Silver – 2022 Exploration Strategy And Work Towards Maiden Resource Estimates At Both Mogollon And Hughes
- Lion One Metals – Updates For The Ongoing Drill Program at Tuvatu, Including Infill Results Showing Very High Gold Grades
- Aztec Minerals – Updates On The Current Drill Program At Cervantes and 2022 Plans at Tombstone
- Fathom Nickel Sees Over 10 Meters Of High-grade Nickel And Copper Mineralization Using Portable XRF Scans
- Radisson Mining – A Company Introduction And Exploration Overview At The O’Brien Gold Project
- Exploits Discovery – Recapping The 2021 Exploration Work in Newfoundland, Including 13,500meters Of Drill, And A Look Ahead To Plans This Year
Thanks to all the KER guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Doc, Dana, and Brian.
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Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!
Certain individuals have asked me to be transparent on what I will be purchasing going forward. I’ll do the best I can. On Friday I took a position in AAU which is close to being pummelled —-it’ll be a long term hold. Also, I took a position in NULGF, one of Quinton’s hypes, which has frankly been disappointing. Who knows; maybe a rabbit can be pulled from that hat. The reason primarily why I took the position is the fact there is a very nice gap that needs to be filled at about 61/2 cts. and it appears the stock is breaking out. When the gap is filled I’ll have to decide whether to take profits or hold—that decision will be based on the technicals at that time.
Doc – Thanks for sharing some of the exploration companies you are looking at Nevada. Hopefully those that wanted to know more about which companies you are trading will appreciate this update.
I sold my ELVT position with a small loss
Another of Goldfingers tax loss plays that he discussed with Cory and Shad in December
Sold my ELVT position for a small loss
Another one of the tax loss plays that Shad and Cory discussed with Goldfinger
Doc – bless you for your Quinton reference. As I have watched Novo & NuLegacy (NULGF) I am starting to wonder if the emperor has any clothes. It looks like NuLegacy following QH’s advice is drilling stuff fit to level out parking lots is now laying off staff and if one of the next few drill holes doesn’t hit they will be down for the count. But never fear QH is out touting another stock. I guess his concept of “consulting” differs from mine. Meanwhile what can one say about Novo? Apparently even Crescat Capital, one of QH’s full time gigs, has abandoned it and it is now heading down to 50 – 60 cents US range. Unlike NuLegacy Novo still has $’s to drill here, there and everywhere so we will see.
I’d tend to agree Mike about Nulegacy being a nothing burger thus far, and am not really sure what the attraction is other than Quinton and Crescat.
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There are plenty of other Nevada plays that show more promise in my opinion like I-80 Gold, Fiore (now taken over by Calibre), Millennial Precious Metals, Blackrock Silver, Summa Silver, Ridgeline, Gold Bull, Scorpio, American Pacific, Gold Standard Ventures, etc..
Ex – it interesting to note that elsewhere the charge is being made that NuLegacy isn’t drilling the most obvious target on the advice of QH. To make matters worse their finances are at such a point that they can only drill a few more holes and that is it. Raising money for drilling while at 0.028 will be a very painful process.
I wholeheartedly agree and think it spans most stocks he’s been consulted on over the past couple of years and it can’t be blamed completely on the sector being down as a whole. Right when I read what Mike was talking about I immediately thought of Lion One. The only person making any money in stocks that QH is involved in is the man himself…….unless you sold early on in the story
Actually Lion One just had a really zesty drill hit a 2 weeks back, and they are doing good outlining how their alkaline system can grow, and have a pathway to production.
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Also Quinton and the respective teams have done well at Eloro, Eskay, Kuya, and Goliath for example, so you’re being a bit rough on him and painting with a broad brush. Some of the projects are doing quite well… just not Nulegacy so much.
Don’t forget New Found Gold, Quinton was all over that play early on as he bought 15 million shares. I think his success far outweighs his losses. DT
You’re right Ex. I’m being a bit harsh but lion one isn’t a good example if you look at where the stock price is now even after those drill results and where it’s ATH is. More than chopped in 1/2.
I don’t own LIO but have to say that it looks perfectly fine/normal/healthy. The stock went up over 7-fold in 18 months and became very monthly overbought just as gold and the whole sector topped with very overbought readings in general. Therefore, pulling back as it has is far from an ominous sign that something has gone wrong. Should we really expect a never-ending supply of dumb money to keep it elevated while smart money rightly sells to book their huge gains? Of course not.
Despite its huge pullbacks along the way, LIO is still up more than 500% versus GDX since its 2010 low and 125% since its January 2019 low. Based on the chart, there’s no reason to think that it won’t smoke GDX again during the next rise for the sector.
Ex: Perhaps I am being a bit hard on QH but my real concern isn’t NuLegacy it is Novo. I just looked at the weekly chart and it looks awful. I’d love somebody better at charting than me to take a look but I’m thinking the next support level for Novo is somewhere in the $0.50 – $0.60 US range. Thankfully they have money so they can keep drilling and continue the sorter tests but the trajectory of that stock price has got to be troubling to others besides me.
I hear ya Wolfster and Mike, and neither Lion One or Novo has performed well, but I do feel retail investors over anticipated what realistic results were for both companies. Personally I’m still constructive on both companies. I only have 2 tranches of both and will likely add a third in both soon.
Scorpio Gold I still have on my watch list
Can they survive?
Doesn’t look like they can finance the $35 million for the mine with a $11 million market cap
Yeah I believe Scorpio Gold will survive… they’ve been around for over a decade, and just changed up the management team again. They had some pretty good drill results this last year as well. We’ll see how things proceed with Goldwedge and Mineral Ridge.
Doc, glad to hear you still like NULGF. I am thinking of putting everything into NULGF@ 2 cents and waiting for them to find a 50 million oz elephant, which could happen. Then Barrick and Newmont could take them over for 5 or 10 billion or over $10 a share. Then I could buy a schooner and sail us
to Fiji and Japan to visit Lion One and Irving. And then on to the gold fields of Finland and Newfoundland. Go truckers!
Save yourself the time and effort with NUG.
It is not an investment of any type at this point.
Well over 600,000,000 shares out.
Dust bowl in Nevada.
Any buys now is just gambling not investing.
Just go to Vegas or online and put 5K on black.
Please remember, when I am transparent on what I’m doing none of it is investment advice. I might add that I took a position in a biotech stock on Friday as well that I’ll add to over time since this stock will be a long term hold. The symbol is BNGO.
Hi to the WISE old man called DOC. … Thanks for replying to Thomas. As i have said in the past about you, you have a way of keeping others on this blog grounded , with your advice. You have been right the majority of the time … Keep it up, old boy HaHa.
Agreed IrishT – great comments on Dr. Postma. Doc, thanks for sharing as much as you do with us here at the KE Report, as it appreciated by many.
Thanks Irish; if I can save people from losing significant cash and make a penny here and there, it’s worth it.
I always appreciate your input Doc but in today’s inflationary environment pennies aren’t enough…..you need to “show me the money”. 😏
‘As Goes January So Goes The Year?’
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Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (02/05/2022)
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https://mailchi.mp/felder/as-goes-january
‘The Fed Is So Far Behind It Can’t Even See The Curve’
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Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (01/29/2022)
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https://mailchi.mp/felder/cant-even-see-the-curve
DT – If you see this I emailed you back.
Hi Ex, the beauty of The Korelin Economics site is that it is like being a window cleaner at the broker’s office. Once you clean the glass the dots become a line. Thanks for your response! DT
Thanks for the kind words. Cheers amigo!
Five Reasons Resource Stocks Will Head Higher in 2022 with Rick Rule
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Kerry Lutz’s Financial Survival Network – January 27, 2022
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“Are we approaching a crisis? Is it Fed induced or cyclical? Furthermore, can it be stopped? I have Rick Rule on the show to discuss the current economic situation, and it looks as if we are approaching a circumstance that will be difficult to comprehend and adjust to. We are facing various shortages around the world displayed by commodity trends, and which are only going to continue to intensify.”
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https://youtu.be/WOqzLHx-Z5I
Wow. I wish I had choose listening to all the ker stuff first…….what a blowhard RR has become. He must really like to hear himself talk. Over 40 minutes of talking and laughing at his own jokes for maybe 2 tidbits of insight. Uranium plays could eventually be a 2x,3x or 4x and he beat the copper drum big again……maybe something about gold too but I tired towards the end. 🙄
You do sound a bit tired man… or like you woke up on the wrong side of the bed today. Again, I think you are being a little bit harsh here towards Rick, just like you were towards Quinton above, and miss your posts where you offered your 2 tidbits of sharing investing information on companies with us here at the KER.
Lol….yes I’m tired Ex. It’s all ker’s fault. Too many great interviews to listen too I can’t keep up and spending 41 minutes listening to Rick put me over the edge…..or maybe it’s being an anti vaxer living in Canada and I feel a need to prove our PM is right that I’m part of the small fringe that hold unacceptable views.
All good amigo. Everyone just seems so depressed lately. Looking forward to some more uplifting conversations soon.
John Paulson on inflation, gold and crypto
I agree 100% on his views
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nu39K2uHs0Y&feature=emb_imp_woyt
Thomas, I agree 100% with Paulson and you. Months ago I, technically, said cryptos were peaking and would fall hard. They have further to fall with bitcoin headed toward 20,000. Where I would quibble with Paulson is that there is a limited amount to bit coin whereas there aren’t for most of these other cryptos. Also, it’s a time frame for me when I add to my hard metal gold/silver positions—you’ll in the long run see bigger gains for the PM stocks then the hard metals on the next run. My 90% cash position is waiting for the expected farther move down in some of the PM stocks.
Do you consider Russian PM miners too?
They probably will be very cheap, because of the situation in the Ukraine
Thomas, I’ve never really looked at Russian miners.
I can’t even think of any Russian miners other than Polyus and Silver Bear. What other Russian miners are you talking about Thomas?
SELG on the MOEX is a smaller Russian PM miner.
Polyus and Polymetal. To some extent also Kinross as they have two mines in Russia
Yeah Kinross is an interesting one as they are diversified in many countries, and soon they’ll have the Great Bear assets, so they couls end up being a target for Barick to acquire them. I was in Kinross for a while later last year after I saw them get creamed, but then I sold when they announced the takeover of GBR.
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My original thinking was just hold my Great Bear shares and let them convert to Kinross shares, but it was only a fraction of the actual shares, and then the performance kicker seemed a ways off with a resource over 8.5 million ounces and with it being put into production. I ended up just selling the Great Bear position to book the win. and rotate into more beat up names with more a likelihood or rallying on a PM recovery.
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Having had more time to digest where things are at now in February, I may take a flyer on Kinross if I sell another gold producer but will see how it goes.
Red Hot Inflation: Lyn Alden Talks Bitcoin, Gold, Energy, Best Bets for Protecting Your Money
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Stansberry Research – Feb 4, 2022
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“Negative real yields will be apart of the U.S. economic system for most of this decade, says Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Her base case is that the Fed’s future rate hikes will be, “relatively shallow due to how much inflation is in the system,” she says to our Daniela Cambone. “We certainly could see a break below $30,000 [for Bitcoin] in a capitulation type of environment,” but ultimately, “I’m still structurally bullish over a five year period,” Alden explains. Having exposure to defensive assets like gold, bitcoin, copper and energy producers, “give you upside in an inflationary type of environment,” she concludes.
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https://youtu.be/zSF75-UEFpQ
Ex, I would also quibble with Lyn Alden’s placing bitcoin in the same category as gold, copper, and oil. Lyn probably doesn’t realize that bitcoin is more of a risk on asset like the conventional markets then it is a risk off asset similar to gold. I plan on purchasing bitcoin in the future but at much lower prices.
Doc, EX:
Thanks for getting into Crypto – I’ve always felt it was a ponzi scheme and this green chicken way smarter than me has finally said so and boy did that little get the hen house squawking, see:
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/dollars-ex-machina
One of the many money quotes is: “There’s simply no arguing that if one uses fiat currencies as the determining scorecard, the crypto universe is a Ponzi scheme. The structural costs of mining – which must ultimately be paid for using fiat – aren’t the only thing that shrinks the outflow pipe for regular investors. Outright theft of fiat deposits, whether via hacks, rug pulls, or illegal front-running by lawless market “participants” are a substantial drain on the total fiat floating around in the crypto universe.”
For a year or two I’ve been in and out of crypto with small amounts of $’s investing in/playing with Grayscale stock, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solano, Cardano, NuCypers and others and have come to realize that the big winner in Crypto land are places like Coinbase not the regular individual investor. For each $25 US purchase Coinbase pulls $1.49. Right now I’m on the good side of the line but seriously question Crypto as a long term store of value. There is simply too much friction, ie. cost, to do transactions. I can carry pieces of silver and gold in my pocket in a usable form. To do a crypto transaction I need a world wide network of connected data centers. That is really gonna help when I need a part for my truck and the shit has hit the fan.
Doc Lyn Alden is an incredibly sharp lady and probably one of my top 5 macroeconomic thought leaders. I’ve been following her work for a few years now.
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She has a better grasp on most macro topics than almost anyone I read or listen to, but as per usual, it isn’t her thoughts on Fed policy, bonds, or general equities, or PMs, or commodities that draw ire from other investors, but rather that she keeps a small doorway open to Bitcoin in a diversified portfolio.
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To clarify, she is not a big crypto enthusiast (especially with the altcoins), but has noted with Bitcoin the qualities like scarcity/limited number, the decentralized component without the 3rd counterparty risk of other assets, and transferable and divisible nature of it as money outside of the traditional fiat system as elements that are similar to gold, and unlike traditional tech stocks or the other altcoins for that matter.
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I believe those qualities are why she referenced Bitcoin, along with gold, oil, nat gas, copper, and other commodities as a good refuge during this environment of higher inflation and Fed rate hikes.
I would tend to agree with your assessment of Alden…………… JMO of course…..
But,….. I still hate BITCON… lol…….. 🙂
Haha! Understood OOTB. Yes, Lyn is a great mind and well reasoned, but her acceptance of Bitcoin, like anyone that does, is a polarizing view to some (especially in the gold community that often has an out-sized hatred of all things crypto for some reason).
I think the gold community’s outsized hatred of all things crypto comes from its outsized understanding of reality. It’s not a question of the utility of certain technologies pertaining to cryptos, it’s the ridiculousness of “investing” in what amounts to literally nothing and cannot be valued with any degree of confidence. The banksters must be laughing their rears off. Leave it to sheeple to cause a sector of nothings to multiply wildly and enjoy the biggest mania in history.
I feel safer buying NULGF than Bitcoins.
K here’s my two cents on cryptos…..if you’re going to buy one buy solana. It’s system is better than ethereum and it’s backers have deep pockets.
Interesting comment on Solana Wolfster. Ed Moya has mentioned that it may challenge Etherum as a level 2 platform that other DeFi applications build off of. I’ll take a closer look-see.
Since the big-boy banks are only paying .02-.03% interest on many of their deposit accounts like CDs or saving accounts and typically 0.55-0.65% on money market accounts (with the vast majority under 1%), then I doubt they are laughing that much when there are potentials for those staking stable coins to earn 4%-15% interest.
https://releaseyourdigitaltalent.com/where-to-stake-stablecoins/
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If more people globally just start to embrace that as their own banking/savings process, to get a much more fair yield, then that is a direct thread to banks. This is why many banks are either totally against decentralized finance, or feverishly trying to figure out to how to adapt and compete to where they can keep their stranglehold on centralized finances.
Ex, what you pointed out is not at all relevant to my comment about the banksters laughing. Just an fyi.
The sheeple are grazing around the crypto exit, hoping they can get out before the smart money.
I have the Chinese government protecting me from the crypto craze, banning all forms of crypto trading for residents of China.
The first time I heard her was today. She is pretty sharp as my first impression. She holds engineering degrees tied with analysis…I think. Bring her on more.
Good idea Lakedweller2. I may reach out to see sbout getting Lyn on the show.
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I’ve followed her written word over at Seeking Alpha for a while, and have posted some of those here on the KER blog over the last few years, along with interviews she did on Kitco, Real Vision, Jay Martin’s show, and I Love Prosperity with Jake Ducey.
$400 million of cryptocurrency stolen by North Korean hackers
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/14/tech/north-korean-hackers-cryptocurrency/index.html
The Dollar matches Doc’s trading range comment: https://tinyurl.com/muu9xf6x
Here is what you guys have been looking for……………. lol………. Have a great one…. 🙂
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/artist-dropped-117-million-410-pound-gold-cube-central-park-day-week
Bitcoin? At least with Tulips, there’s a bulb.
BDC – simply brilliant! You may also get a nice flower out of the deal.
“Crypto theft remained an important revenue source for North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs last year, the United Nations said in a report.
The crypto theft was carried out via cyberattacks on cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide. North Korean cyber hackers stole millions of dollars worth of crypto.
Overall, the report noted that more than $50 million worth of digital assets were stolen between 2020 and mid-2021. According to the data, at least three crypto changes in North America, Europe, and Asia were targeted by North Korea.
The report stated that cyberattacks represent an “important revenue source” for Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile program. The findings were submitted to the UN Security Council North Korea sanctions committee on Friday.
The UN report also cited a Chainanalysis report that North Korean cyberattacks could have collected a Toal of $400 million worth of crypto last year. According to Chainanalysis: “North Korean cybercriminals had a banner year in 2021, launching at least seven attacks on cryptocurrency platforms that extracted nearly $400 million worth of digital assets last year. These attacks targeted primarily investment firms and centralized exchanges.”
North Korea is banned from ballistic missile launches and nuclear tests by the UN Security Council.
“Maintenance and development of DPRK’s [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure continued, and DPRK continued to seek material, technology and know-how for these programs overseas, including through cyber means and joint scientific research,” UN’s report said.
The UN’s Security Council has been stepping up sanctions against North Korea since 2006 with the goal of curbing funding for Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
But the UN report highlighted a “marked acceleration” of missile testing by North Korea over the past year. Despite the sanctions, North Korea has carried out nine ballistic missiles launches in January, according to a statement by the U.S. last week.
“DPRK demonstrated increased capabilities for rapid deployment, wide mobility (including at sea), and improved resilience of its missile forces,” the report added.”
I just have to wonder how much more the “powers-that-be” need to come down hard on Crypto.
LMAO…………… JOKE OF THE WEEK……………….
. The St. Louis Fed Thinks $30 Trillion In Debt Is No Big Deal
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-02-05/st-louis-fed-thinks-30-trillion-debt-no-big-deal
HeLL No………. not when you have a printing press…………. and Your entire Establishment(lol) is a CON JOB…..
I did say the other day………….. DEBT is going to $50 TRILLION…. before it ends…… lol
The St. Louis Fed Thinks $30 Trillion In Debt Is No Big Deal
Here is the article on NO BIG DEAL DEBT CALL …………..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-02-05/st-louis-fed-thinks-30-trillion-debt-no-big-deal
I know many still don’t believe the Fed can stop QE, no less shrink its balance sheet, and because of that the refrain, “You can’t taper a Ponzi,” can be heard from every corner of financial media.
I tend to agree with that sentiment because, of course, all Ponzi schemes require new money to constantly come in to prop up the asset values of of the previous round of funding. This is the definition of a Ponzi scheme, after all.
zerohedge……quote…..
Doc, I believe I’m the only one who challenged you on the “transparency” lol. I don’t have an issue with it and as I said multiple times I value your work.
I will keep you in check going forward again if suddenly you go all in 🙂
I’m quite confident the rounding monthly bottom is already in for many miners and not so for some. I’m ultra aggressive and can wait it out but your going to see fire works soon 💪
I don’t have the time currently to put up the monthly long term chart but if Matthew can be a gentlemen and out up the $eur:$usd and we are at a massive inflection point imo. This is one chart that should not go unnoticed. You can argue the Cad as well vs usd. When those two currencies pop in these nest two months the bull will be on its way! Please don’t underestimate those two currencies has the biggest market in the world is currencies once they move within that timeline very short term the big money will start to show in the miners.
Glen
Glen………, I guess you did not read my comment, ……….
OOTB Jerry
Jan 30, 2022 30:44 AM
DITTO GLEN…………………. Doc,.. if , you are going to give advice on the nibble , at least give a little warning on the DUMPING…….. Kind of Rude , for a Pro …… reminds me of David Morgan, never warning at
silver high, just before in went south…………… JMO………
Glad I am in all phyz……….. lol…………
Cantex – v.cd
I’m thinking might be time to get back in.
Can Fipke do it again.
Curious on any input or comments
Tony, I had forgotten about Fipke, he is a serial success story, Cantex is really in the doghouse. Interesting at 24.5 cents CDN. DT
Cantex has a market cap today of $15.83 million, lots of Bargoons out there these days, about two years ago Cantex’s market cap was around$450 million. Cantex is in The Yukon so you need to have a huge deposit. They were getting some really massive zinc intercepts at this time, but like the whole resource market it’s in the dumpster, might be time to go Dumpster Diving! LOL! DT
Cantex – there’s a blast from the past…. I’ve not looked at it in a while and got spanked on that one in the past. It did show promise though as polymetallic deposit with interesting Zinc grades.
Novo fell right to a modified Schiff fork support on Jan. 27 and looks ready to rise (on the daily chart, too) unless gold starts a new plunge. That fork support for the coming week is .96 Cdn.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVO.TO&p=W&yr=5&mn=2&dy=0&id=p08566450943&a=1108804029
Thanks for that chart Matthew. Interesting spot.
Yeah, I’m thinking of adding a 3rd tranche to my Novo position soon, but currently am underwater by over 22% and would like to average down in a third tranche to get that near -15% overall…. then wait for the rerating higher.
Makes sense Ex. I haven’t added in a while and I am also at a net loss so will probably average down soon. Today was a good day, but there should be some more weakness.
Wishing you good trading Charles, whatever happens, but yes, it was nice to see the PM sector get a lift today.
Further to Brian Leni mentioning Cote D’Ivoire, Fortuna(FSM) is projecting its first pour at Seguela open pit mine sometime mid 2023. Total of 62,000 hectares to be explored further.
Yep, that project was moving along nicely under the Roxgold team, so it nice to see it nearing production now under the Fortuna banner.
Ok Ex…I’ve had my morning tea after a good nights sleep and my basketball bets were all winners so here’s a couple of quick thoughts
A lot of chatter has been around gold and silver mergers/takeovers….I definitely think that will be the case but I think what’s being overlooked perhaps or at least less discussed is the green technology commodities being prime candidates for mergers/takeovers….we have seen some of it taking place in the lithium sector but I think that copper and nickel are going to see an increase soon. Demand is going up and mine openings are a long ways of in most cases so a company can only increase their production through acquisitions
Bell copper is just the beginning of what I think will be a successful year for copper explorers…kodiak looks primed for its next run up and just did some options at $1.35 pre a soon to be steady flow of news….black wolf has totally disappointed me so far and having wolf in its name may have blinded me somewhat but I still believe in the thesis for now
Uranium….Matthew called the overbought nature of it quite well and I realize now it will probably be a few more years months of meh……but I still hold some cuz I can’t time worth shite.
Pots I believe you’re early on Ex but as stated above my timing is never bang on. I had a stink bid in for IMCC that almost got hit but then it went up 25% from there in 2 days….I still see it pulling back and same goes for the MSO’s and Planet 13. They’re in the second half of the year category for me at the earliest. Planet 13 is the one I’m watching closest as things reopen and get back to something towards normal
Doc Jones picks have lots of news flow over the next month or so for the ones I got into. Emerita being top of that list. So much happening that it’s hard to sit on the sidelines. Cgx Energy is much the same as it will most likely announce a JV in the next couple of weeks. The other one I like of his for the near term is NG Energy (gasx)… missed out on the Petrus.
Slightly more thoughts than I intended but still nowhere near the essays of Ex category.😏
Great post Wolfster – that’s the spirit mate!
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Yes, agreed that we’ll see more M&A in the Battery Metals space. We’ve already seen some in the Lithium space with the merger of Orocobre and Galaxy into Allkem, and the acquisition of both Neo Lithium and Millennial Lithium.
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With Nickel there were the acquisitions and even bidding wars for Noront and Western areas, and I believe that FPX Nickel and Group Ten will eventually get nabbed as well. We just started bring on Fathom Nickel which is doing interesting early work, and there is also Canadian Nickel.
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With Copper we haven’t seen as many takeover deals or mergers yet, but there was the combination of Serengetti and Sun Metals to form Northwest Copper and I could see that combined company being acquired by a larger suitor. Same thing with Granite Creek combining Carmacks and Carmacks North under one roof and having a nearby suitor in Minto Metals. Yes Kodiak is doing good work, and as discussed in this last weeks call with Brien Lundin there will be a lot of funds freed up from the Great Bear acquisition that find their way over to the next Chris Taylor company. I’m curious whether the 2 high flyers in the copper exploration space from last year, Filo and Solaris will get snatched up soon? There is also Regulus that was loved until Peru got all messed up. Yeah, we’ll have to reach back out to Rob and get Blackwolf on for an update. I’d like to get Western Copper and Gold on the show as well, as their massive project in the Yukon got endorsed wirh a strategic position by Rio Tinto last year. There are also a number of mid-tier copper producers that had good years that could merge or be acquired like Amerigo, Atico, Sierra Metals, Copper Mountain, Etc… There are also dozens of copper development stage projects on the shopping racks, that could be acquired.
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As for Uranium stocks, they had such an epic run and were so overbought on all time frames by last November, that Steve Penny nailed it with call for a corrective move to begin last Fall. Justin Huhn had mentioned it as well although I don’t think he was expecting it to be as protracted. On the call we just put out on Friday with Steve Penny we noted using the best sector ETF (URNM) that the U stocks had lost the 200 day MA which is concerning that there could be more downside pressure in store.
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That would be great actually as I’m only 75% in position there and would love to see the PMs pop first, si I could pull some profits in my overallocation to gold stocks, and then plow some of those gains into my last 25% allocations in the uranium stocks if they pulled back further. I did the opposite trade last year pulling profits in Uranium stocks from Sept/October that got rotated into Gold and Silver stocks. It would be great to do that reverse trade in 2022.
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As for the Pot stocks, I had a nice swing trade in Planet 13 last year, but sold all my cannabis stocks last year (including IMCC, which was a dog in my portfolio), and have been building a position in (POTX) over the last 2-3 months, and just added 2 weeks back or so. Sure, I may still be a little early, and usually am, but I like averaging into a position over time, and don’t feel POTX is pricey here by any stretch.
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Ever Upward!
I made the following chart on November 14th and warned about them here at the same time. As I recall, someone had mentioned that Gwen Preston was bullish which is why I pointed out the true and very unappealing picture.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URA&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p22574995040&a=1063105266
I also warned about LIT in mid November and posted the following sell signal when it occurred a week or two later.
LIT:GLD
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LIT%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p07203683413&a=1067169840
A little bit of fun for my friends on this page. Truth & Humour … Adolf Trudeau … Enjoy
Trudy Castro is an absolute scumbag.
Ditto Irish!
I’m very proud as a Canadian immigrant to see the love and support and the strength behind those truckers from all provinces willing to die to change this mandate. They have my 100% support and backing. We are all with them.
The slime ball Trudeau is running out of time. He will have to face the song. Sorry one time i put politics in here I used my life line lol
Oil vs Silver is overbought and probably has little if any upside left.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC%3A%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p56391231903&a=1109215287
But the oil-silver ratio could have an impressive spike left if the metals get hit this week. It’s at big resistance at the moment.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p59142997514&a=1109219541
I appreciate reading all your comments: good information conveyed in a civil way. I have listened to the podcasts for some time but only now found this forum.
Excelsior – We are happy to have you here Chamberlain. Yes, there are a lot of good thoughts shared on the KE Report forum for sure and many insightful contributors on this blog. Welcome aboard!
The 30 year UST doesn’t look good…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USB&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p04338655966&a=1109285309&r=1644228507904&cmd=print
Not surprisingly, gold looks good versus the 30 year UST…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24USB&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p19339745876&a=711000952&r=1644228712249&cmd=print
The 10 year UST doesn’t look good…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p49585108259&a=1109291302&r=1644228592531&cmd=print
Not surprisingly, gold looks good versus the 10 year UST…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24UST&p=W&yr=6&mn=5&dy=0&id=p53192585410&a=1109294215&r=1644228816893&cmd=print
The miners have vastly more upside potential than downside risk.
GDXJ:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85948041607&a=1107767726
Friday’s close is what matters on a weekly chart but gold is off to a good start today with a close above its weekly KAMA and, by 33 cents, an important pivot.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p28954689756&a=1109348019
Silver looks good versus gold and it really has since December.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p76408853541&a=1109754834
Down Day. Tomorrow has higher probability of an Up Day.
Well in the PM mining stocks it was overall an up day, with GDX up 2.93%, GDXJ up 4.06%, SIL up 4.52%, and SILJ up 6.44%.
My account is very heavily weighted to the PMs and it was up 4% overall today into the strength. The Uranium stocks were up today in the green as well. Most of the weakness was in the base metals stocks.
This weekly chart makes it obvious that silver was a good buy around the lows of September and December. The lows of last week and the week before were runners-up but also good.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p01424108832&a=500464214
Thanks for getting DOC on the show and asking about his >90% cash position
I wouldn’t feel good with so much cash and all the bargains in the PM miners
I see his point that the Fed actions starting in March might create pressure on the other side
I am 50% in cash at the moment