Weekend Show – Markets and Metals – A Focus On The Impacts Of Fed Tightening On Financial Markets
The biggest takeaway from the start of the year for financial markets is weakness and volatility. A wide range of stocks and sectors have already drastically pulled back with some predicting further weakness. A lot of the shakiness is attributed the the Fed starting to tighten financial conditions with a rate hike fully priced in for March.
We focus this Weekend’s Show on Fed policy and what the markets are telling us. This all ties into current inflation data, where money is rotating and what we can expect for at leas the first half of this year.
Please keep in touch with Shad and I by emailing us your thoughts on markets and any of the companies we interviewed this week. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Axel Merk, President and CIO of Merk Investments kicks off the show with a fantastic summary of the Fed meeting and outlook for the rest of this year. A focus is on the position of the Fed to fight higher inflation and a slowing economy. We also discuss the health of the US markets and gold market. Click here to learn more about Merk Investments.
- Segment 3 – Mike Larson, Editor of The Safe Money Report recaps the start of the year for US Markets and some big name stocks. We have seen major corrections to start this year all ahead of upcoming rate hikes. Click here to learn more about Mike’s Safe Money Report.
- TG Watkins, Director of Stocks at Simpler Trading and Editor of the Profit Pilot website wraps up the show by sharing his trading strategy of playing the short side on a wide range of stocks and sectors. He also outlines his recent play in gold stocks. As mentioned, TG is hosting a free trading webinar on Monday at 4:15pm ET (1:15pm PT) to share more details on how he’s trading these markets. Click here to sign up and save your spot.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Colibri Resources – Exploration Update At The Evelyn Gold Project And The Pilar Property
- Aurion Resources – Recapping Drill Results From the Aamurusko Property and Helmi Discovery, Both In Finland
- Defiance Silver – An Introduction To Their Three Silver-Gold-Copper Exploration And Development Projects
- Vizsla Silver – Aggressive 10 Drill Rig Exploration Program Continues in 2022 With Maiden Resource Estimate On Tap
- Tier One Silver – Recapping Drill Results From The Curibaya Project Now Showing 4 High-Grade Silver Corridors
- Bunker Hill Mining – MOU With Teck Resources To Purchase The Pend Oreille Process Plant
- Rupert Resources – Drill Results From The Ikkari Deposit and Heinä Central With 80,000meters of Drilling Planned In 2022
- Calibre Mining – Full Year 2021 Operations Review And Outlook For 2022 At Nicaragua and Nevada Projects
- Mantaro Precious Metals – A Focus On The Golden Hill Project in Bolivia With A 5,000 Meter Drill Program Starting In Q1
- SilverCrest Metals – Construction Update, Ahead Of Schedule And On Budget
- TDG Gold – Summarizing Initial Drill Results From The Maiden Drill Program At The Shasta Project, BC
- Palamina Corp. – Recapping The Maiden Drill Results At Usicayos, An Update On The Lagos Property, And Work Being Completed With GoldSpot
- Hemisphere Energy – Recapping A Year Of Increased Production and Revenue Growth In 2021 And The 2022 Business Strategy
Thomas, many of the explorers are or are getting close to their bottoms with many of the mid tier and large tier stocks with more to fall. You think this is cheap?—–wait until the end of March. These stocks when they bottom will not suddenly explode higher but there will be some consolidation at the bottom. Remember; 2022 will be the year of bottoming. Goldman Sachs predicted recently that $2000.00 gold should occur by the end of this year—-they either don’t know what they’re talking about or they’re purposely trying to mislead the public.
Doc I have been following you right along and been cashed up waiting for things to bottom to re-enter, curious where you see gdx by end March, can it really go much further??
Also do you think stock market will bounce in February and possibly tank again ahead of Fed rate hike??
Thanks, hope you can offer your opinion.
Paul, I wouldn’t be surprised to see GDX at 25 by the end of March. If that happens, it will have broken its’ 50 month MA which would be extremely negative and as the year progresses, it could go lower. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the conventional markets rally a little at the beginning of February but then things could get dicey again. If the GDX closes below the 50 month MA it will signal future significant carnage for the large cap PM stocks.
Paul, I am now 91% cash. I do not like what I’m sensing right now in most asset classes. I also don’t see any markets skyrocketing any time soon except for oil. The technicals on long term charts are just signalling a big cautionary sign. If things start turning around in the PM markets there is plenty of time to load up since it’ll be a gradual melt up.
91% cash wow – you getting more and more to the other extreme of Ex’s position
When is the right time to start to deploy the cash?
I think nobody will get the timing perfect, but the difference between buying some weeks before or after the bottom should not make much difference, if you buy in stages.
I already started last week, because some midtier miners look ridiculously cheap. They are cash machines, buying back their own shares and paying dividends at the same time.
Thomas , I’m curious—-what mid tiers did you avail yourself of?
Doc – If you went from 82% cash just a few weeks ago to now 91% cash, then I’d be curious to know which stocks you sold to raise more cash?
Did you just decide to take a loss on them now to be able to buy them back lower in a month or two?
Doc,
I’m also curious like ex in regards to how you raised more cash from what I remember you did not disclose previously that jump in percentage to cash I have been forefront with my position and continue to be very low on my cash. It is interesting at a time of complete Bearishness and I can’t find anyone saying gold is going higher and you being 90+ percent in cash so something has to give and someone will be on the wrong side of the trade because there is no perfect timing. I have a lot of respect for you doc but I don’t want to hear if there is a turn and an explosive move higher than you suddenly went from 92% cash to 25% cash without letting us know at the very least let us know when you do decide to go that Avenue and I’ll which given day credibility is huge and your call that’s far has been a good one respectfully. Personally all I ask for is a little bit more transparency that’s a huge jump from cash position without it being notified on the Kerr.
You do not have any obligations to tell us what you do personally as I tend to be a private person myself you have been advocating that many minors have been or have reached their loss and others will go a bit lower so that I acknowledge.
Thank you
Ex, awhile back I sold 2 of the positions you recently sold—-PPTA and wallbridge. Also, I sold EQX and Sand. Also, NSR. More recently I sold PMNXF. I also sold JAGUAR quite a ways back. Also, last week I sold lumina gold. It’s going lower. Another one Karora. Glen, I’ll try and let you know when I start purchasing and what I’m purchasing. At some time I would really appreciate it if EX would develop a list of about 5 stocks in explorers, development companies and mid tiers that he particularly likes (both gold and silver). I’ll be purchasing shares in companies that I can expect a minimum of a 200% return when the next big move comes.
Hey Doc – Thanks for that feedback. I was just curious which ones you lighted up on. Yeah I’m currently out of Perpetua and Wallbridge as mentioned further down in the blog, and I did lighten up on my EQX a few months back, but still have a core position in. As for Sandstorm that you mentioned, its been my heaviest weighted gold position the last few months because I feel there is so much strength in the underlying 200 royalties, and I was buying at very low prices last year and am only underwater on it by about 10% still. As for Nomad Royalty and and Jaguar I still have solid positions in both and haven’t really traded around those much because I’m fine holding those for the next year or two. You also mentioned Karora and that is one I’ve been building a larger position in and I’m still well in the green on it despite the sector weakness so I’m fine holding that one through whatever weakness we may see. The only 2 out of the companies you named that I don’t have a position in are Lumina Gold or Perseus.
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As for a list of only 5 PM stocks – that’s way too narrow of a scope for me… Haha! I’ve got 70+ Gold & Silver stocks and in all the stages from royalty companies, to mid-tier producers, to small producers, to developers, to explorers… in a number of jurisdictions that have different risk/reward setups as a result. I’ll throw out a few sets of 5 though, just for some ideas.
1) Royalty companies are my more conservative bets on slow and steady value creation over time, without so much company risk.
5 royalty companies that I hold are Sandstorm, Maverix, Nomad, Vox, and Elemental (although, I’ve sold half my Elemental since they bumped higher on the potential takeover by Gold Royalty Corp).
2) Next onto the producers:
5 mid-tier Gold producers I hold are Alamos, Calibre, Karora, Jaguar, and McEwen. 5 smaller Gold producers I hold are are Superior Gold, Steppe Gold, I-80 Gold, Aris Gold, and Mako Mining.
5 mid-tier Silver producers I hold are Hecla, Coeur, Silvercorp, Endeavour, and Fortuna.
5 smaller Silver Producers I hold are Impact Silver (which is my largest weighted current silver stock), Santacruz Silver, Americas Gold & Silver, Alexco, and Guanajuato Silver.
3) Next onto the Developers:
5 Gold developers I hold are Orezone, Skeena, Integra, Liberty Gold, and Montage Gold.
5 Silver developers I hold are Silvercrest, Discovery, Dolly Varden, Silver Tiger, and in the next month or so Vizsla will graduate to a developer since they’ll have their maiden resource out, and they already have a fully permitted and owned mill in place.
4) Next onto the Explorers:
5 Gold explorers I hold are Aurion, Firefox, Heliostar, Volcanic, and Scottie
5 Silver explorers I hold are Metallic Minerals, Summa Silver, Blackrock Silver, Defiance Silver, and Kootenay Silver.
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Obviously I have a lot more PM stocks than the ones mentioned above, but those are 5 ideas in each stage of mining stock for both Gold & Silver. Hopefully that suffices. 🙂
DITTO GLEN…………………. Doc,.. if , you are going to give advice on the nibble , at least give a little warning on the DUMPING…….. Kind of Rude , for a Pro …… reminds me of David Morgan, never warning at
silver high, just before in went south…………… JMO………
Glad I am in all phyz……….. lol…………
Yamana, Kinross, Endeavour – all buying back shares, paying dividends, generating cash
Thomas – you can add PAAS and AGI to that list.
Doc, I had made a similar suggestion a couple of years back for the team to line up a set of top stocks per category. I would luv to see it from the great minds within the Ker family.
Hi Canuckski. I provided 5 in each category of gold and silver royalty, 5 mid-tier producers, 5 smaller producers, 5 developers and 5 explorers up above. I’d be interested to hear others 5 in each category and get more people sharing which mining stocks they are animated by. Cheers!
So far, nobody else has shared their 5 miners in each stage of mining stock for both gold and silver, and nobody even said thank you for me taking the time to share all those companies in each category (including the person that asked me to share them in the first place). Oh well… 🙁
Three Kitco guests talking about bitcoin recently may explain part of this lack of interest in precious metals.
Mashinsky also said bitcoin correlates very closely to QQQ’s with 3X the movement..like trading TQQQ/SQQQ
Terry, In my opinion bitcoin trades like a “risk on” asset versus gold which moves as a “risk off” asset. If the general market continues to melt down over time as I suspect, bitcoin and other cryptos should follow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see bitcoin move down to the area of $15000-$20000.
The new bitcoin ETF(BITO) +7% Friday as well as SPXL +7%. Also TQQQ +10%. Tradable on the short side/puts, a la TG Watkins comments?
Thanks for the show!
Dollar Week : BREAKOUT : Gap May Fill
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/01/dollar-week_26.html
Folks:
I have to admit it, I’ve gotten overwhelmed. The volatility in the markets is simply nuts. My slightly stinky bids are routinely working and I’m getting exhausted. On one hand gold is holding up pretty well, it ended the week 1790+ never touched 1750 but all I am hearing is that the sky is falling. No wonder the sector is so unloved. What I fear is that is that folks will just want to get out and the selling pressure on all these companies will prevent price appreciation for a while to come. Just look at Novo Resources – the chart says it is headed to 0. It makes no sense.
For me I’m starting to look elsewhere. I think Jared Dillian on a recent Real Vision Daily Briefing has a good idea – look for companies with a rational PE that have a track record of paying a real dividend, greater than say 4%, buy them on the cheap and hide. Believe it or not they exist. Take for example ET, they just announced a dividend hike from 0.15 to 0.175 a share and their stock actually went down. Thanks for bring Dan Steffens on the show – good guy with a rationally priced news letter. He had lots of good ideas that fit that mold. Hope he comes back on the show soon.
Re: the small PM explores there are just too many of them. I’m starting to call them strip mall miners. Vancouver must have millions of them! You have to wonder if they are relabeling mail boxes as offices. I’m exhausted by the number of I find. My latest wonder is a small Nickle explorer that sells sand on the side to frackers and is less that 0.01 US a share. Is that really a Nickle explorer? As of 12/31/2020 99% of their assets are in the category of “Held for sale asset”. If their sand sales disappear they will go poof!
Hi Mike – glad you enjoyed Dan’s segment last week. Yeah, he seems like a very sharp guy and we appreciated him sharing his insights in the energy sector. Speaking of dividend yields, he shared a number of companies with really attractive current dividends or growing dividends. Good stuff!
Ex – I am planning to subscribe to Dan’s newsletter. The rate is reasonable and can easily pay for itself with a few good stock picks and the ability to learn what to look for and what to avoid might be even more valuable.
I agree with Doc Postma, it is very dangerous out there and it is hard to know what is happening at any moment. The unknown could spook the herd into a stampede of selling. Nothing has any value for me at this moment.
Long haul truckers have formed a huge convoy in Ottawa and the government seems to want to ignore what they don’t like. Grocery store shelves outside of Toronto are bare, The Truckers and the public are fed up. It won’t be long now before before food supplies become a huge issue.
I am sitting on 50% cash, I believe it is only prudent to sit this thing out until you can be sure the panic has passed. DT
Wow. There sure is a lot of extreme bearishness on this blog all the way up today.
Many of the comments being made sure remind me of the kinds of declarations we were seeing in March of 2020 during the pandemic crash, about going over to the sidelines to wait things out in cash after the general markets and PMs had already had large pullbacks.
As we know, buying during that time of extreme market FUD “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” was the way to play it (buy low sell high). When those markets turned shortly thereafter, and started ratcheting higher by double digit gains on many days, then many (ie… most investors) missed huge percentage gains by hesitating to buy into the weakness and by being on the sidelines at the wrong time. Those same folks then eventually were forced to chase things higher as the bull climbed the wall of worry having missed the best buying opportunity in years, followed by one of the better rallies in years.
Just something to consider if we do get that continued big pullback down lower in February in the general markets and PMs as many are projecting. I’ll be looking to deploy my remaining dry powder into that weakness we see prior to the rate hike cycle kicking off when there is max FUD.
Even the typically bullish Morris Hubbart is suggesting to shore up accounts to get into cash for the coming corrective moves. I don’t recall people suggesting to sell into the strength we saw 2 weeks ago though when the prices were higher in many names.
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A Major Crash: Hold Lots Of Cash
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Morris Hubbartt – Jan 28, 2022 – Super Force #PreciousMetals #TechnicalAnalysis #Video
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http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt012822.html
I am not as pessimistic as DOC
There is lots of uncertainty in the market, especially about the situation in the Ukraine
If Putin invades the Ukraine, we get a real crash and the sanctions will hurt both, Russia and the West
If they find an agreement, I think we get a strong rebound
When too many experts agree, it’s no different than when too many non-experts agree. They’re usually wrong. The question is, do too many experts agree? I’ll never forget the summer of 2009 when I counted four dozen well-known stock market experts who were all bearish. They never had a chance to cover their shorts at anything but a loss.
DT; you’re in a good position—-don’t catch any of those falling knives just yet. You’ll have plenty of time to put that cash to good use in the future. I believe most of the carnage for explorers and mid tiers will be done by the end of March/April. After that we will probably see weeks of a low trading range for most of those stocks. Some of the large cap ones may still be settling lower for weeks after that.
Ex, you make me mad because you are usually right, you rascally rabbit! DT
Haha DT! 😉
Well, it was just an observation. I haven’t seen these kinds of bearish comments from so many posters across the board and so many going to cash on the sidelines since March of 2020 in the middle of the Pandemic Crash.
Also with so many raising more cash, my question would be what did they just sell to raise that cash, and did they take a loss on those positions considering almost everything has pulled back?
I’ll go first…. I sold my positions in Perpetua, US Gold, and Wallbridge over the last 2 weeks to raise some more funds, and took a slight loss on the first 2 and a bigger loss on the last one. Just banking a few tax loss sales here to kick off the year to wash out the anticipated gains from later in the year. I plan on buying those positions right back in US Gold and Wallbridge, after my 30 day wash period is over, and I’m not sure if I’ll buy the Perpetua right back or not.
I sold Kootenay(KTN) and bought Russian ETF(RSX) which has been going up and helped balance losses in IPT and SCZ.
Terry – That’s an interesting trade picking up the Russian ETF, and that it’s headed higher recently (especially in light of the geological backdrop). Is there a lot of energy focus in that one? Russia is a player in the natgas and oil space so that thought crossed my mind when you mentioned it.
I’ve been watching RSX for some time and will probably invest in the future—-if I can’t purchase it expecting a 200% return I won’t purchase it.
A lot of O&G and other commodities, some banks. I’ll write calls on it for the time being.
Ruble is down, RSX was down when I bought it, option premiums on it are quite good. Selling puts on RSX seems like a reasonabble way to get a return on my cash.
‘The Fed Is So Far Behind It Can’t Even See The Curve’
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Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – January 29, 2022
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https://mailchi.mp/felder/cant-even-see-the-curve
Gold’s Dramatic Upward Revaluing Forthcoming says Austrian Economist & Fund Manager Dan Oliver
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Mining Stock Education – January 27, 2022
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“In this interview, Dan Oliver shares his outlook as it relates to the economy, Federal Reserve policy, gold and gold stocks. Daniel Oliver Jr. appears regularly as a guest on financial media outlets, lectures at monetary and investment conferences, and publishes articles on gold, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve.”
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https://youtu.be/OsxfCuV5mRU
“Forthcoming” is a word that is interesting. Does it mean tomorrow, next week, next month, one year, or a decade? The odds are good it won’t be this year. This year will be the bottoming year.
Yeah “forthcoming” is a bit nebulous, but in the interview Dan unpacks his thoughts and the impression I got was more medium term 3-6 months gold will start responding to Fed rate hikes and then next year if something breaks then a more meaningful move higher. That seems like a reasonable outlook.
EX, that scenario is very plausible. I’ve mentioned months ago that I didn’t expect to see gold challenge its’ high in August 2020for some time; the earliest being 2023 (if we’re lucky the end of the year). I feel really good that I existed EQX awhile back before its’ recent carnage. Sand is also gone.
Thanks for sharing your outlook Doc. I’m a bit more constructive on Gold potentially making a run at the all time high by the end of this year in 2022, but if it takes until later 2023 as you are expecting, then so be it.
As mentioned up towards the top of this thread, I still have a very healthy weighting to Sandstorm (because I see it as less risky than individual mining stocks) and while I trimmed back some of my Equinox position a few months back, I still have the core position in place.
Ride the Biggest Bull of 2022
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By Sean Brodrick on January 29, 2022
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“Just since the beginning of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is down about 6% … the S&P 500 has swooned 8.8% … and the Nasdaq Composite has plunged a whopping 13.3%! You know what? They’re still not cheap enough to buy.”
“This is partly due to rising inflation and the resulting fear that the U.S. benchmark interest rates will rise a lot. Many of the biggest companies need cheap debt to thrive, and their cost of business is about to go higher. So, the market sells … and sells … and sells.”
“But do you want to know something that is already cheap? Something that did very well last year, and is probably on the cusp of a big, inflation-fueled bull market?”
“I’m talking about commodities. Despite rallying as a group in 2020 and 2021, commodities are still very cheap compared to the S&P 500. Here’s a chart of the S&P GSCI Index divided by the S&P 500:”
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https://weissratings.com/en/wealth-wave/ride-the-biggest-bull-of-2022
Crypto’s Gold Standard Claims Are Fading Fast
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Nils Pratley – The Guardian – Tue 25 Jan 2022
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“Bitcoin and its ilk have slipped deeper alongside the market appetite for risk. Just look at the Nasdaq.”
“The US-focused shakeout in financial markets has at least given us clarity on one point: bitcoin is not “digital gold” or a “store of value”, to mention two grand claims made about the cryptocurrency when its price was going up.”
“At $37,000, the late-afternoon level on Tuesday, Bitcoin has fallen by 22% since the start of January and by 45% since recording an all-time high in early November. The crypto crew may have convoluted explanations for this setback, but the simplest one is best: bitcoin has always primarily been an instrument for pure speculation; when high-risk assets are out of favour, it will be clobbered.”
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2022/jan/25/cryptos-gold-standard-claims-are-fading-fast
I believe the stock to watch is NEM. It should be the sentinel stock indicating the end to this bear market for PM stocks. NEM appears to be topping and forming a head/shoulder pattern on the monthly chart. When this stock falls more and bottoms, then you know the end of the bear market is in view.
Agreed Doc. NEM Newmont is the largest gold Major and a good bellwether in the sense that when generalist investors do wade into the PM space, that is likely one of the key names they’ll gravitate to.
Ex and Others FWIW Information:
To begin concerning status of Cash and type of stocks I am holding.
I am 100% invested with $44.87 in cash. My expectation is for a breakout at any moment. My account took a 25% hit over the last two weeks. In monitoring the daily paper exchanges of Physical Metals, there has been never ending 24 hour a day dumping against the metals, normally in response to any green movement. I consider that abnormal for the inflation situation, the Covid situation, the War situation, the debt situation, the derivative situation, the corruption situation, the political situation, the false data situation, The Fed situation and any other situation that comes along. I have reached the point that the markets are being intervened in to such an extent that although the technicals can tell us history and what appears to be direction, they cannot predict intervention minute to minute or day to day. As a result, we have a lot of Bears no matter the fundamentals and we have many contrary opinions. As a result, we cannot be certain that either fundamentals nor technicals or both together can be predictive of corruption.
My experience over the last 20 years or so has been that you cannot expect an up move in miners when expected nor when that move comes can you expect it to last more than a couple of months. Compounding that issue that for the first half of the move you don’t really know if it is happening or if it is a day to day aberration. Once you get some confidence it is a valid up move, then there are days of abnormal hits downward often showing irrational volume of paper contracts, triggering hedge fund algos and blowing stops driving losses quickly. Then almost as if magic, a v bottom run back up making the investor believe that was an aberration fueling thoughts the up trend will continue for many more months. Obviously, the way the markets trade, they are designed to be unpredictable. This of course is favorable for those that have “direct access” to the markets of the world through computers and their “programs”. Coupled with relatively little Regulation, at least against those that have the power to write and use programs, use high speed trading to front run, deregulation making what used to be illegal, legal, dark pools, derivatives, “forced arbitration” (there is one no-one talks about), and all the other “tools” Wall Street has been given to trade with their money against ours, the guy on the street is placed in a “defensive posture” of guessing how to invest his money as there is hardly anything that is not an artificial bubble in a a society where the value of the currency is destroyed.
S,o with that as a background, and recognizing that I am fully invested, and that I trade or swap some things around almost daily, but not significantly, here is how I am invested today listed by dollar amount value, high to low, rather than type of stock (silver, gold, mixed, etc):
Emerita, Theralase, CGX Energy, Petrus Resources, NG Energy, Great Royalties, Santacruz, Volcanic Gold, Nobel Resources, Group Ten, Lion One, Impact Silver, Summa Silver, Blackrock Silver, Copper Lake, Millennial Precious Metals, Silver Tiger, Big Ridge, Granite Creek, Kairos Minerals, Honey Badger Silver, Essential Metals (Kairos and Essential are leftovers from my Novo Days -Australia.)
Here is maybe something that came up Friday at the Emerita site on ceo.ca that I find disturbing as to how far the problems with market intervention has come over the years. I remember about 15-20 years ago after Jim Cramer got out of the Hedge Fund business, he had an interview with someone where he admitted an action that he portrayed as “standard hedge fund activity”. He described a situation where his Hedge fund would take a short position and then “arrange” for a “false article ” be released to the public which would have the immediate effect of dropping price and running stops. They would not correct the false article, but let it go through a natural process of of being found to be false, but in the meantime his Hedge Fund would take the “short profits” and buy back in low, then as the price returned to its “value level”, sell again for double profits. Now keeping in mind that historically it has been against SEC Regulations to do “anything” for the “purpose” driving a stock price in a particular direction (implying that lying, cheating and stealing was bad), then here is my Friday Emerita story.
Since Doc Jones came out with his analysis early in 2021 of Emerita and Brown Fields holdings, Emerita had been in a 7 year court case where tender offers on the property/properties had been disputed in Administrative Courts as well as the Criminal Courts. Price went dormant. Early in 2021 criminality was determined concerning mining companies, politicians and assorted criminals of several varieties making Emerita the proper tender holder. Eric Sprott bought in that day and the rest of us learned about it around the March -April and forward timeframe. We have been waiting for the Final Order from the Administrative Court on the Anzacollar (sp) property as well as the start of some confirmation drilling results ever since.
OK: Here is the Punch Line. Ceo.ca Emerita has been running a fairly congenial boaard, with some very knowledgeable contributors, and a wide variety of investors af varying degree of experience. The key word being Congenial.
Everyone anxiously awaiting “some kind” of news. Well starting two weeks ago, price was being hit every day. Not surprising, all were being hit. Except the rest of my account that had been in an almost one year “some up some down” every day, continued to pretty well be balanced except for leaning toward down.
Emerita releases drill results Friday morning. Not outrageously good, but, confirming of the areas they were drilled in (confirming of existing resources). Not confirming of the massive land package which has known and unknown potential to varying degrees. We expected an up move (particularly after the 2 week attack)…but we are in it for the long haul.
So immediately from the release, there begins a posting assault on Emerita from all directions concerning quality of the drills, Emerita will never get Anzcollar (Administrative Court in a letter has implied they will), accusing large shareholders of selling on the news as if it were fact, name calling of posters in an argumentative way, actual shorting of the news (not unusual by itself), of course driving stops, large volume on the down move and other nefarious types of posting associated normally with shills of one variety or another. (I commented at the time that I had never seen such an orchestrated attack on a Press Release in my history of trading – my first impression). Doc Jones found a poster that set up his ceo.ca account in April (I think) and had only posted on the Emerita site, but, posted 40 comments of a negative nature following the release. The price at opening. worked its way down -11% initially with a lot of volume (I didn’t check the #, just mentioned by others) and probably took an hour or two to begin coming back. I ended up about -1.67% down for the day.
I saw this happen with two other stocks I have owned over a period of time: Novo and Great Bear. The hostility is prevalent that you find even reading the sites as discomforting. I hope that is not the way of the Emerita Board as it will be a 180 degree reversal from the way the site has operated and also contrary to the rules and guidelines of ceo.ca.
I find this merely a replay of the Jim Cramer Hedge Fund Agenda and a reflection of what worldwide regulators have allowed the “markets” to become. A playground for insiders.
All these factors affect my trading plan…but it also drives me to attempt to find a place of safety for my property. With the tone of the political atmosphere and the theme internationally toward authoritarian regimes, I am concerned that discussing our trading methods and holdings are more at jeopardy to be confiscated (in many ways including inflation,etc) than having up and down days.
Impact Silver(IPT) is another good company seemingly doing everything right but getting pounded down by some invisible hand.
Catherine Austin Fitts has attempted to quantify the stolen trillions and who is responsible for the theft. These culprits seem to be everywhere and are capable of controlling the markets with petty cash from this stolen horde.
Yes, IPT has been pounded from recent highs but it’s still 7% above its August low and 8.5% above Friday’s new low. Brixton (BBB) has fared better and is 20% above its September/October lows despite being down almost 27% from its January high. Kootenay (KTN) is still 12% above its September high. Even Hecla is still 5% above its December 15th low.
Last year’s lows were perfectly reasonable times to buy as GDX, HUI, etc. as well as bellwether Newmont shows…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05529630282
SILJ is interesting and probably near a low if Friday wasn’t it but it would be great if it ends the month with a solid up day. Solid down would set up real crash potential (which we already have to some extent).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p59327136001&a=1031508938
February is a new month and this cycle repeats. I may buy more IPT.
Yes, and it’s because of the new month and the related technical picture that it would be nice if tomorrow was a solid “up” day.
Terry, I’m waiting to get back into IPT. It could see 20 cents.
Wow. IPT at $.20 Doc…. that would be a bummer to me, as it is my largest Silver position and it closed on Friday at $.45, so that would be another 55%+ decline from here. It would definitely be a screaming buy down there, but that would mean things are getting really fugly still, and that most of the pain is not priced in yet in the miners.
Oops, correction to error above: KTN is 12% above its September low not high.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p66180487775
Lakedweller2. I see the ceo attacks on Emerita two ways. One, as old fashioned shorts pounding the weak hands with negatives and two, bulls pushing bearish narrative to acquire lower priced shares… again, from the weak hands.
Its not like there’s any substance to the attacks. The new assays expanded the known resource. Emerita’s investment thesis is not only intact but improved.
Cheers.
Agree totally as nothing of substance or fact was being asserted. Just false claims and name calling as if that was more important than reality ( although some politicians have been very successful by never having a platform or an agenda they can discuss). Unfortunately, in the current world we live in, facts or truth are a hindrance to what a person personally wants or believes.
Lake,
I think you just won the crown for longest post 🤠 knocking down two time champion ex 🙂
All fun
Non the less great post and thx for sharing your picks. I’m basically almost all in and as you pointed out, the bottom is the hardest thing to time but will come and I’m betting sooner then most think.
Thanks Glen. EX can’t be beaten as the quality of his “long” responses are clearly superior to anything I could ever attempt. Try as I might, the well would run dry for me before EX even worked up a sweat. (This is the point where I try to stand on one leg, raise my arms and fall over)(Great Bear Royalties …left out the Bear. I wonder if that is some kind of Freudian thing)
Haha! Lakedweller2 and Glenfidish those comments on the long post awards made me chuckle. 🙂
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For the record: I don’t purposefully set out to make any post long or short, but rather as long as they need to be to get the information shared or provide enough context and details in a rant so that there is supporting data and a logical framework.
Not everthing of value can be shared in a few sentences or a meme photo especially if it is going to get more granular and have more supporting facts.
Having said that, it isn’t lost on me that some people may just be TLTR (Too Lazy To Read) and so they’ll claim it’s “too long to read.” Even the very longest posts really only take a few minutes, so none of it is too long in reality. However, I get that some people only come here to post for a quick emotional venting (both bearish or bullish) or to post a chart, or to proclaim an opinion that they hold. It takes all kinds and the participation is appreciated.
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Lakedweller2 – thanks for taking the time and spending the effort to put up a lengthier post. I understand and appreciate the energy needed to post something like that and the fact that your insights and experience are embedded serves the community. Interesting comments on the naughty games that hedgefunds play, and on the rundown of what people observed recently in the Emerita room over at ceo.ca. I’m sure Doc Jones is on the case though…
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Ever Upward!
Your responses will not get a complaint from me due to the quality of content. And besides, I really think you are a robot because you must type really really fast and should be tested …
Excelsior…Maybe you could take some of your valuable time and review this commentary?…Put it on speed listen, that will help a bit…….This ‘jack-ass’ thinks the fed has 100,000 tons gold reserve…Also he believes with-in a few months the banking cartel is rapid switching to gold backed federal-crypto currency…Any opinion is welcomed…I have no idea….
Sincerely, Larry
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/11316/thursday-conversation-2021-2022-jim-willie
Larry:
Jim Willie is interesting. My understanding is he is a phD in statistics (US) and has a very active mind. He lives in Costa Rico and seems to have some Worldwide contacts that discuss a variety of issues with him under pseudonyms and has some interesting opinions. I haven’t listened to the interview you have posted, but I will.
I have learned over time to listen, be patient and see what he has to say. Over time they play out or they don’t but he often has some insights that are worth keeping in mind when trying to make sense out of today’s world. He appears angry about things in general, but aren’t we all. He is what he is but has some perceptions that can’t be ruled out. If that assessment makes sense.
I neither endorse or not endorse but find him different to the point of listening.
Hi Larry – Thanks for brining this to my attention and I’ll check it out later on this evening after watching a movie with my lady.
Ah yes, Jim Willie the “golden jack-ass” and Craig Hemke “Turd Ferguson” – I’m sure it will be an interesting conversation to say the least. 🙂
The Economy explained . This also applies to the US , & every other Country. click on the picture to activate.
In the last 2 months the volatility on PM stocks has been significant. The volume is huge compared to previous years. It could be another indicator of further pressure since bottoms often see a decrease in volume.
Doc:
Do you think that the increased volume could be associated with the problems The Fed is dealing with and it is an orchestrated effort to restrain the miners during a period when the general markets are weakening and the economy is trouble. In other words, keep investors away from a sector that signals fiat dollar weakness and economic failure. Just a thought.
Nat Gas having a good start tonight. Check after open if it still is.
Nat gas hit beginning just after 8:00 EST.
Bengals clip Chiefs but they won’t finish off the Rams. So Super Bowl indicator points to a positive year for stock market.
This is the 4th month in the last 5 that GDX tested its 2016 and 2019 highs. With the September low just 97 cents away, tomorrow should be interesting.
Monthly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=M&yr=14&mn=0&dy=0&id=t0643150829c&a=1105514583&r=1643608904607&cmd=print
I was thinking this is important congestion zone and support is pretty important to hold for GDX.
Wouldn’t it be pretty bearish for the longer term technical structure if GDX breaks down below $28 in the mid-$20’s?
Not necessarily but we don’t want it to stay down there for long.
Friday’s bounce came at a good spot. A little follow through to end the month would be great.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=18&id=p23561647201&a=974962609
GDXJ bounced perfectly at fork support.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p81911372125&a=1105555118
Oil Rises, Hovers Near 7-year Highs On Supply Fears, Political Risks
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By Yuka Obayashi – Reuters – Jan 30, 2022
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“Oil rose 1% on Monday, hovering near 7-year highs hit in the previous session, amid concerns over tight supply as well as geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.”
“Brent crude rose 92 cents, or 1.0%, to $90.95 a barrel at 0051 GMT, after adding 69 cents on Friday. The front-month contract for March delivery expires later in the day.”
“The most-active Brent contract, for April delivery, was trading at $89.69, up $1.17 or 1.3%.”
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https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-rises-hovers-near-7year-highs-on-supply-fears-political-risks-2752837
O&G the other commodity where alot of the money is going, XLE and XOP each up 70+% last year.
After poking through Fib fan and speed line resistance about 10 days ago, silver plunged 10% to 50% Fib fan support on Friday. You can see that it bottomed in December at a speed line as well as a fork support at the same time and precisely. What are the odds of that?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p31735773267&a=937970450
SILJ finally thoroughly backtested the Fibonacci fan that it broke above 18 months ago. The previous attempts didn’t quite get there.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=t0249989276c&a=694218332&r=1643622132313&cmd=print
This is it, glass half full. It’s end of month window dressing.
Hey Ex. Regarding kodiak. Should there not be some drill results still coming from 2021 drilling??? Maybe I’m starting to show my age but hopefully that’s not the case
gold bulls better hope this dxy dip not an abberation.
Monica is not happy with the copper action.
CGX Energy up on my screen +31.1% on no news.
And of course: some up some down +$326 dollars for the day. Emerita hit twice already.
Getting close to drill results and if they hit it’s worth way more so people are getting their lottery tickets. I have mine.
Some are also adding to Frontera as they share an interest
CGX hit +40% a few minutes ago and Emerita went green for the 3rd time. Miners are a laugh a minute…or two.
CGX Resources Halted trading
Halt says “for news”.
(Emerita gone green for the 4th time. (Hard heads all around)
well it looks like the news is out and like they say for the beverly hillbillies ‘up from the ground came a bubbling crude’….could be a nice pop tomorrow ……means I can get me some more emerita then
thank you Matthew, always appreciate when you write
Thank you for that, Alex. You’re welcome.
Thanks also Matthew. As always, you give us some good stuff to work with. You keep us in game when things get borderline…which is a good thing.
Thanks, Lakedweller2, you’re always welcome. This borderline stuff is no fun sometimes!
Matthew: Thanks. That means a lot.
Nobel Resources moving up into the close after it was beat with a stick last week. The COO made short comments on a youtube item that can be heard at ceo.ca Nobel Reources
This was a good way to end the month and start the week.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p83142733572&a=1081067116
GDX hasn’t touched its 200 week MA since March 2020 but SIL and the rest closed last week below it. SIL is now above it again and SILJ is 2 cents below it…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p87467662983&a=1075727223
Today was better for gold than its small price move might suggest.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92262263649&a=1104018722
Gold tested its 25 month MA during each of the last 6 months but still hasn’t closed below it thanks to today’s small rise. Here’s a monthly chart that I posted at the beginning of December (the annotations have not been altered since).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=t9089744858c&a=1073871759&r=1643667927387&cmd=print
That didn’t work very well so here’s another try:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=t7258242662c&a=1073871759&r=1643696729274&cmd=print
Just a quick note. Couple of PRs out which seem to indicate CGX hit oil. Not sure what that means but expecting a pop in the morning.
The wild ride for those who worship D J TRUMP continues . Now trumpet mouth admits that he tried to use military and FBI and homeland sec to grab ballots and voting machines to change the reports on who won the election. Big risk is not if Trump runs again —but Desantis or holly of missouri run with trump acting as behind the throne kingmaker . Trump may want a appointive job like ambassador too some big country like brazil or his friend putins russia . Trumps antics has made the whole world more unstable Biden Trump and Bernie are all to oldto run well as president more likely younger candidates maybee kathie porter for DEMS or my fave AMY K lots of young repubs available as well [not M T Green ] pray for sanity rsh
Where do we stand?
2022
GDX -6.2%
GDXJ -9.5%
S&P -7.3
NASDAQ -13.7
Looks like a general correction. Bombed out PM stocks correct together with the other markets?
On a 10 year perspective PM stocks are ridiculously cheap or were the worst investment? What’s wrong? Perfect opportunity to buy? Or further correction with the general market?
2012 – 2022
GDX -43.6%
GDXJ -63.6%
S&P +307.4%
NASDAQ +540.9%