Jordan Roy-Byrne – Taking A Look At The Quarterly Gold And Silver Charts
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to review the longer term monthly and quarterly charts for gold and silver and where the technical support and resistance levels come in. He discusses the importance of $1900 on the longer duration charts as the key resistance to clear on a closing basis. For Silver he outlines the $26.60 and $37 levels as the two key longer term resistance levels on the quarterly charts that would need to be eclipsed for a solid run to $50 and above.
With regards to the longer term trend in gold, Jordan also highlights that the key 40 month moving average is steadily trending higher each month and that he sees it being key support if there is a further corrective move in the months leading up to the Fed rate hiking cycle in the spring. We also discuss, once again, why the larger cup & handle pattern playing out over the last decade is the primary super-bullish pattern investors should be focused on for the larger trend.
We wrap up discussing that gold will need to truly break out to get silver moving in a more bullish way, and shares what correlating levels will need to be reached in gold for silver to have the energy to pierce through overhead resistance levels.
That’s funny because talk about the quarterly charts quite often. He’s right though, most people never mention them.
Yes, you have talked about the quarterly charts ever since I can remember Matthew. There are a few other technicians like Doc Postma, Christopher Aaron, Patrick Karem, and Kevin Wadsworth that I’ve seen discuss the quarterly charts as well.
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Jordan had posted this video, and I had asked him about it before recording and his main point was that when he goes on social media or chat forums and sees hundred of people posting charts, they are almost always the hourly and daily charts, and occasionally the weekly charts. Sometimes he sees people discussing the monthly charts, but hardly ever the quarterly.
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Personally I normally use the hourly and daily, and sometimes the weekly in individual stocks, but only occasionally look at the monthly (more so in the metals directly or key ETFs), and rarely look at the quarterly charts. I’m sure Jordan thought it was a good title and topic, and we agreed it would be good to discuss today in our interview as well.
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Keep on posting the good charts. (unfortunately I can only see your daily and weekly charts from StockCharts) except for when you do the print screen feature. However, if you have a way of posting a print screen of any monthly or quarterly charts that you feel are worth reviewing that would always be appreciated.
Unfortunately, I’m pretty sure my computer skills are well below average. Otherwise, I would always post my quarterly charts in a way that everyone could see them.
Jordan correctly pointed out that the weekly chart is more important than the daily, the monthly is more important than the weekly and the quarterly is more important than the monthly which is why I’ve pointed out more than a couple of times that gold’s low last year happened almost precisely at the all-time high yearly close of 2012 (70 cents apart is nothing when we’re talking about almost $1,700). Since the yearly chart is more important than the quarterly and the yearly is unquestionably bullish, it should also not be ignored.
Glenfidish and a few others should be able to see this one:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=Y&yr=35&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79744515402&a=928826022
Here it is using the “print” feature at stockcharts just in case…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=Y&yr=35&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79744515402&a=928826022&r=1641442530135&cmd=print
I checked the last one with my phone and it worked so everyone should be able to see it.
Here’s a cup-and-handle within a giant cup-and-handle for gold vs the CPI:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24%24CPI&p=M&yr=50&mn=11&dy=0&id=t8919111124c&a=915738730&r=1641446966803&cmd=print
Nice. Yes, those are great (and encouraging) yearly and monthly charts and came through well. Much appreciated.
The yearly version looks quite good as well:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24%24CPI&p=Y&yr=75&mn=1&dy=0&id=p85465672535&a=915743962&r=1641447279152&cmd=print
Quarterly silver vs S&P500 is interesting:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24SPX&p=Q&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=t8524616110c&a=902009365&r=1641447694170&cmd=print
I like the looks of the monthly GDM chart:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=M&yr=18&mn=0&dy=0&id=t2450148808c&a=521133986&r=1641448350840&cmd=print
I don’t want the miners to finish this quarter lower but a new low intra-quarter could be ok. A lot can happen in 3 months…
Quarterly XAU:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=Q&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47115104232&a=906072456&r=1641448633490&cmd=print
100 years of Dow (quarterly):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=Q&yr=100&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59093236443&a=682633946&r=1641449186046&cmd=print
Oh well, it looks like 40 years is the max for non-subscribers.
Great looking charts Matthew! Keep them coming I appreciate them.
Question for you.. what chart would you use for the micro cap or speculative stuff or even small cap for example like brixton or Scorpio. What would be closest in accuracy on a stock chart? Like for example gdxj vs US dollar? Or you got something different?
Thanks In advance
That silver vs s@p 500 looks like it could head to that double bottom scenario?
On the contrary I really like the gdm chart with quarterly intra low suggestion.
As far as I can remember you have been at the forefront of the quarterly charts repeatedly.
There’s one particular guy I follow from time to time and he made a call regarding an order block located between that $1830-$1850 region and said once collected it would turn down and head for that liquidity below the double low slightly below it.
Scary to see that attack yesterday but it is what it is. Could there be an event that triggers gold higher in this quarter? Everyone keeps being pessimistic with the exception of king world news guest always higher.
I like that chart from gdm And I do like the monthly on hui and gold but these miners don’t want to cooperate unless you take there most recent lows but some are already back to them. Most investors are aligned with later half of the year bottoming for the miners all in regards to rate hikes and going with what the fed is saying. I’m not sure but I’m going to stick with my approach right or wrong the wait will just be extended but I’d like to really climb this wall of worry and fast at the current moment. Let’s see what gives
Glen, for the microcaps and everything else the shorter term charts will always be more important in “the here and now” but many who know that make the mistake of completely ignoring the big charts. I learned long ago that shorter term buy signals are usually better bets when the longer term charts are bullish or at least improving rather the bearish or deteriorating. So I am always consulting the very short term intraday charts no matter the size of the company or the amount of time I intend to be positioned.
GDX fork action:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p52762923342&a=1092627729
The monthly chart sell signals that we’ve had in the sector have been less bearish dude to the bigger picture strength depicted by the quarterly and yearly charts. Such strength was completely absent in 2016 (and ’17 and ’18) even after the huge bull run. So those who are expecting the a repeat of that 3+ year correction/sideways action are most likely in for a surprise. The big-picture backdrop is not comparable this time and, not surprisingly, neither are the fundamentals. I said it recently and it’s worth repeating: the sector is setting up for bull market action like we haven’t seen for decades and it will be underpinned by all the charts across all timeframes being in bullish order.
That last sentence about the bullish set up coming in the PMs on all timeframes is quite encouraging.
Matthew
Thank you for your detailed response. I agree that the the overall larger picture is aligned and could not look better. It’s just a waiting period now before we hopefully get rewarded for the efforts. Time is always the most difficult test in this profession.
Thanks again
Interview: Gold’s Stronger Than Normal Cup & Handle Pattern
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January 4, 2022 – Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA
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https://thedailygold.com/interview-golds-stronger-than-normal-cup-handle-pattern/
Fed notes make interest rate rise inevitable . Dow stocks down. gold slightly bullish . my gold and silver stocks mostly down but earnings up . best of health and wealth to all rsh
From Howe Street to the Big Time: Robert Friedland Celebrates 40 Years in Mining
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by @tommy on 5 Jan 2022
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https://ceo.ca/@tommy/from-howe-street-to-the-big-time-robert-friedland-celebrates-40-years-in-mining
(CXB) (CXBF) Calibre Mining Shareholders Overwhelmingly Approve (F) Fiore Gold Acquisition
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5 Jan 2022
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https://www.calibremining.com/news/calibre-mining-shareholders-overwhelmingly-approve-3883/
Playing the stock market is a very dangerous game. I read a lot about history, but I would bet that a lot of investors don’t know that Winston Churchill lost a lot of money on The Stock Market after the1929 crash. What is really interesting is that he was in The United States in 1929 and he happened to show up on Wall Street on October 24, 1929. He talks about the pandemonium that nobody saw coming including him but somehow he was there on that day and witnessed the financial destruction. DT
Heard a jazz composition on the radio this evening from this album.
https://www.allaboutjazz.com/dont-you-wish-jay-leonhart-self-produced-review-by-patrick-burnette
The number is “Tulip,” and tells an interesting story, with piano accompaniment, of the tulip mania
in 17th century Holland.
The concluding lyrics to “Tulip” ask whether we’ve learned something from this story, and literally: “The answer is no.”
Aussie U Thursday AM
VMY 11+%, DYL 9+%
Nice to see the Aussie Uranium miners continuing to rise. The Uranium stocks have been rocking again this week, and have been a definite bright spot in my portfolio, including today, where most of them were near the top of the heap of best performers. Unfortunately is was a tough red day in most of the PM stocks, and some of the other base metals stocks too.
A great short clip from Rick Rule and Antonio…
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Does Rick Rule Manipulate Uranium Stocks?
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Baby Investments – Dec 28, 2021
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https://youtu.be/eWAtTQIisuY
Action in gold THUD
Gold has just continued to play $1800 ping-pong on either side, so I’m not sure that’s a “Thud.”
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What has been a “Thud” is Bitcoin, down from $69,000 to $43,000.
And hope springs eternal.
Just because I didnt see it mentioned.
Uranium could increase due to the turmoil in Kazakhstan.
Guess that could have been mentioned yesterday.
Dont know when or if this will post, hope its not too late for anyone interested.
Yes, we had discussed it yesterday, but it is definitely worth mentioning again with the government of Kazakhstan imploding, and them being the largest swing producer of Uranium. Definitely a story to be tracking.
As pointed out above, this will likely have big ramifications for the Uranium mining sector:
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Kazakhstan government resigns as demonstrators set fire to capital
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By Lexi Lonas – The Hill – 01/05/22
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https://thehill.com/policy/international/588318-kazakhstan-government-resigns-as-demonstrators-set-fire-to-capital
Kazakh uranium output unaffected by unrest
Kazakstan accounts for about 40% of global uranium production.
MINING.COM <digests@mining.com
Video: Nobody Follows This Gold Chart
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January 4, 2022 – Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA
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https://thedailygold.com/video-nobody-follows-this-gold-chart/