It’s time to get an update from Doc on the gold charts!
Richard Postma, AKA Doc joins us now that the calendar has turned over to share some of his thoughts on the gold charts. We start with the monthly chart and the October price action. We also look at some key technical indicators on the weekly chart and how he expects the stocks to perform into next year.
Thanks Cory and ex for having Doc on.. I think he makes very important points right at the beginning of his audio.
Allow me to say I share the same sentiments in regards to his famous bollinger bands with weekly 50 day moving average narrowing with the 100day moving average in gold. Something is about to give and it’s in line with his numbers that he mentioned. I posted earlier today that I would like to see this week go up and challenge that $1810 region and close about there and next week go up and challenge that $1832-$1840 region and close there.
Im really getting the sense all ducks are aligning and I turned bullish about a month or so ago and mentioned I think here and when I made that bottom call on USA and bear creek to the tee that the fed ain’t going to taper nada/zilch it’s all an illusion. When doc says we better get going and I hear Matthew say we look better then ever and I’m feeling the way I’m feeling, I see us breaking massively on the third week of this month maybe next week but breaking out and really confirming this bull!
Thanks again doc!!
Glen
Thanks Glenfidish, and yes it will be interesting to see what comes of the Fed policy announcements this week. As for the tapering, it wouldn’t surprise me if they at least start the program, but then possibly have to abandon it early before completing it several months in. With regards to the rate hikes next year, I’m not sure if that will happen on schedule, or at all, but mathematically there is no way the Fed can hike rates up to anywhere close to where inflation is at 5.4% on the latest CPI reading, or 4% or 3% for that matter. Even if inflation does lessen some next year compared to this year, the Fed will remain “behind the curve” just like always.
Silver Chartbook – Silver’s Fuse Is About To Be Lit
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Florian Grummes – Oct. 31, 2021
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“The narrative will change from a “we are not worried, it is transitory” to a “we need to deal with” regarding inflation.”
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“We now see early signs of such a lift-off in price in recent silver price movements. On top of it all, we find clear evidence that commodities with industrial use are likely in a long-term bull market.”
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463951-silver-chartbook-silvers-fuse-is-about-to-be-lit
Thanks Ex for replying to my ask of your opinion on WM MRE coming out best guess Nov 9th now. Please remember you are saying RE will have lower grade for open pit than Mart had in their MRE and is being updated also Nov 9th. I hope your wrong on that assumption. You are 100% right about KL open pitting less than a gram. Mart open pit is over double that if I remember correctly as stated in original Bar MRE. I hope also your on the low side on your thoughts for ounces. There have been folks predicting 5 to 10 million and even stating CEO said that which is fake news. However there is gold just about everywhere they drill with a couple new areas just announced with decent grade. The trend seems to run right over to the border with a huge land package. Was hoping to have Doc chime in, he seems to do that after the fact. thanks again
Your also right about the Ni WM has not getting a nickel of value. Sine WM took out Bar and got EV Grass the price of nickel has jumped significantly and the inv level has dropped close to 1/2. Hopefully soon they come up with a solution to extracting value. Like poke a couple holes in ground at Grass
Hi Monty Bissett. Yeah, I prefer to err more on the side of being too conservative for maiden resource estimates, after a dozen years of watching investors get overly enthusiastic with pie-in-the-sky dreams going into these releases, and then getting disappointed and turning from cheerleaders to bashers if the resource is solid but doesn’t live up to the stretched market expectations.
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Again, I think a resource in the 2-3 million ounce range grading near 2 g/t would be a big win for Wallbridge. However, I believe the market has completely unrealistic expectations of 5-10 million ounces and they are focused on only the 10 g/t – 30 g/t drill results and missing the fact that most of the deposit is not that high of grade. If WM puts out anything over 3 million ounces or an average grade over 2 g/t it will be absolutely impressive and bode quite well for the company.
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Yes, Grasset has not been getting a “nickel” of value, but it eventually will. It would likely fair much better in a spin-out company focused on battery metals, as it will always be overshadowed by the gold focus of the company. They should do something like Karora Resources did by spinning their nickel asset out into Canada Nickel Company, and then keeping KRR more laser-focused on gold w/ a nickel credit.
The M&A trend continues….
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Chifeng Jilong Gold to Acquire Golden Star Resources in an All-Cash Offer Valued at US$470 Million
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– Nov 1, 2021
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https://tinyurl.com/6pu9jt55
Lithium Americas Makes Offer to Acquire Millennial Lithium
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– Nov 1, 2021
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https://tinyurl.com/4cammana
Are we still pretending the Fed does something other than transfer wealth to the banking elites? I guess we should be prepared for intervention this week until they get through with their script.
Doc, nothing tells the tale more than the fact that Gold down a mere 5% for the past year and silver actually up a mere 1% according to kitco. Yet major producers can’t get out of their own way. Same with broader measures gdx and gdxj with their share value in spite of all the happy talk and fundamentals of blistering debt levels, rising inflation blah blah.
Play the hiccup oversoldrallies and hope to get out in time.
First NEM then AUY, now KGC out with bad reports.
Congratulations to BTG for bucking the downward trend.
KGC Kinross hasn’t even reported anything yet, and doesn’t do so until November 10th.
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> Where are you seeing they had a bad report out?
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https://s2.q4cdn.com/496390694/files/doc_news/2021/09/KGC-NewsRelease-Q3-2021_announcement_Final.pdf
As for Yamana, their report looked pretty encouraging overall, so not really sure I’d call this a “bad” report:
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______________________________________________________________________________________________________
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(AUY) Yamana Gold Reports Strong Third Quarter 2021 Results With a Step Change Increase in Cash Flows, Standout Quarters From Canadian Malartic, Jacobina, El Peñón and an Exceptional Quarter From Cerro Moro
– 28 Oct 2021
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– Net earnings(3) were $27.0 million or $0.03 per share basic and diluted. Adjusted net earnings(1, 3) were $69.7 million or $0.07 per share basic and diluted.
– Mine operating earnings were $154.0 million and increased quarter-over-quarter by 8%.
– Cash flows from operating activities were $190.6 million and cash flows from operating activities before net change in working capital(1) were $202.9 million, representing sharp increases from second quarter results of 24% and 21% respectively.
– Free cash flow before dividends and debt repayments(1) was $81.6 million and increased 59% quarter-over-quarter.
– Cash and cash equivalents totalled $460.2 million(8) and the Company has $750.0 million in available credit.
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https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/yamana-gold-reports-strong-third-quarter-2021-results
Some of these numbers are down from previous but Racine made excuses for the company, saying the fourth is usually a better quarter.
I don’t follow AUY that closely, but the numbers just seemed solid overall. However, if they trended down quarter over quarter or year over year, then the market likely will punish that kind of thing. This isn’t the tech sector where bad news is shrugged off, and most news is seen as a reason to buy, and the miners really have to beat expectations or surprise to the upside to get any market love.
(AUY) Yamana Gold: The Recent Decline Isn’t Justified
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– Nov. 02, 2021 – SomaBull – Seeking Alpha
I worded that wrong, read a couple of predictions assuming a bad quarter for KGC.
OK. That makes more sense then, as I was waiting to see if KGC could turn their ship around, and recently positioned in Kinross for the first time in August, as a turn-around story. The predictions for a not so great Q3 may be correct, but I just noticed the market was really being tough on Kinross for the last year or so, and especially after they had that fire that damaged some of their mine. However, they are moving along now, working on getting that rehabilitated, working on getting production metrics ramped back up again, and I believe they will have a better Q4 of 2021, and first 2 quarters of 2022, so that in about 3 more quarters, they may start surprising investors to the upside.
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Normally, I don’t play in the Majors (although Equinox EQX has grown so large that it will become a major in a the next 2 years once it eclipses 1 million ounces of production per annum). With Kinross, it just seemed like a good time to buy it under $6 and I plan on holding until around $10 to sell back out of it for a nice position-trade by mid-2022.
I was thinking the same thing about KGC, maybe sell some short term puts and/or buy some LEAP calls.
Morris Hubbartt gets it. This is nothing more than a healthy pause and there’s no reason to assume otherwise at the moment.
https://goldseek.com/article/gold-miners-healthy-pause
This was my GDX chart submitted here last week…i do not read kitco…lmao…they should hire me…glta
HEAD/SHOULDERS, my concern was a lower right shoulder which is less than optimal…
GDX fell precisely to its 10/12 high so the 10/13 gap is now filled. Today’s low also happened at a fork support while today’s weakness was “predicted” by yesterday’s new MACD sell signal.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11490650918&a=1054054413
SILJ just had its best daily close versus GDX in 3.5 months.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p92685056217&a=1054467271
Gold went up about $17 after testing important pivot support today…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p63567015186&a=993652669
in PAAS 25.279
in NUGT 48 round
we will see, gold looks better than silver because silver is below its oul
PAAS targ 37.24
nugt targ 76.39
It’s a good sign that SILJ is down less than silver today but I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes a dip toward its own 10/13 gap tomorrow.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p14445955736
Matthew i will post on that chart silj later…i want you to see if our methods vary in impressions…that is all…nap time to burn of the grogginess…lmao
glta
If this Fed meeting doesn’t mark a low, I bet we will find one within a week or so.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p38790381384&a=1054940869
SILJ has anchored VWAP supports that I don’t want to see broken on a closing basis for more than one day.
https://schrts.co/PyrRKkMX
If SILJ fails to bottom today on fed day…Then i agree Matthew a few days later and a 50%/.618 retracement…That is all…Re-asses….I rarely add to (down) positions if they go opposite, so it means nothing for me….GLTA
https://tos.mx/1mN7fSp
/GC has momentarily achieved a 45% retracement of 9/30 low….on 10/29 at 1772.4……Will that be all?..possible …That was bought up immediately by the algos…glta
Is all the noise around Basel III a nothing burger doc. I just read a convincing article that suggested Friday’s faint was aid to the banks who are overloaded with shorts (maybe includes ABX with their offside Evergreen Shorts?) to square the month end? Where does physical become a factor?
FIH; I believe the Basel III noise is probably a “nothing burger” since it’s been around so long that by now it’s probably been discounted. Good observation.
appropriate response doc
Rick Rule & Darren Hall – Bulletproof Balance Sheet – Here’s Why
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Liberty and Finance – Oct 30, 2021
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“(CXB) Calibre Mining recently announced the acquisition of (F) Fiore Gold Corp. This interview showcases our partner Calibre Mining Corp and it’s growth, production potential, and cashflow due to the recent acquisition. Our guests are renowned investor Rick Rule and the CEO & President of Calibre Mining Darren Hall.”
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https://youtu.be/1D-RkxWsJDE
FOMC Wednesday followed by a more auspicious Thursday.
Known ADP figures (head fake again?) into NFP Friday.
Last year’s Thanksgiving Rally may be duplicated.
SPQ(PMs) : https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
SPQ(Others) : https://tinyurl.com/n3usfa27
Possible PM Miners Swing Turn.
Bust. Dollar strength. PM value leveled.
Turkey, with stuffing, on the menu.
Yes, but is that turkey stuffed with inflation? 😉
(VOX) (VOXCF)Vox Announces Q3 2021 Revenues and Multiple Royalty Production Records
– 2 Nov 2021
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https://www.voxroyalty.com/_resources/news/nr-20211102.pdf
up up and away all things not metals. LOL
topping 1800 turns into an obsession. This week should tell the tale, but underperformance by producers not a vote of confidence.
to me, as far as we have matthews charts, we do not need anybody else.
Doc is deresssing, find out after Wednesday we’re good is going