Weekend Show – Featuring Jesse Felder and Rick Bensignor – Markets and Metals
As the markets continue to lack direction and a wide range of sectors remain range bound we focus this Weekend’s Show on what will drive markets and metals through the end of the year.
We are very lucky to have both Jesse Felder and Rick Bensignor joins us on the same Weekend Show. We have them look at the big picture market trends and where each of them are advising clients to direct their investments.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder and Editor of The Felder Report kicks off the show with explaining why he thinks the BANG stocks (the major mining stocks; Barrick, Agnico Eagle and Newmont Goldcorp) are set up to outperform the FAANG stocks. He also discusses the challenges the Fed will have implementing their policy, why inflation is not “transitory,”, and how this is affecting the commodities.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Rick Bensignor, President of Bensignor Investment Strategies wraps up the show by sharing his outlook for the US markets, bond market, and compares gold to bitcoin as an investment.
Exclusive Company Updates This Week
- Blackrock Silver – Updates from the Tonopah West Project in Nevada, including multiple high-grade silver results
- District Metals – Phase 2 drilling started at the Tomtebo Property and 2 new Property acquisitions in Sweden
- Infield Minerals – A Company Introduction And Update On The Exploration Strategy
- Hemisphere Energy – Updates on the polymer flood at the Atlee Buffalo G Pool, fall drill campaign, and debt reduction
- Sombrero Resources – Updates on the trading date and work plans at the Sombrero and Takana Properties
- Enduro Metals – More information on the new porphyry discovery at the Newmont Lake Property in the Golden Triangle
- Kodiak Copper – Gate Zone drill results yielding 105m of 0.76% CuEq within 504m of 0.47% CuEq at the MPD Project in BC
- Nickel Creek Platinum – Initial drill results from the Arch Area on the Nickel Shäw yields a new massive sulfide discovery
- Integra Resources – A look ahead to the upcoming Pre-Feasibility Study, with increased gold and silver production
- Nomad Royalty – Recapping 3 Key Asset Developments and Q3 Financial Results
- Colibri Resources – A focus in Mexico on gold exploration at the Evelyn Project, with 4 other JVs
- Labrador Gold – Drilling starting at the first priority target outside of Big Vein on the Kingsway Project
- Novo Resources – Exploration update including drill results from the Genie Prospect
- Prosper Gold – Following up on the initial drill results from the Golden Sidewalk Project
Much appreciated BDC. We are also thankful that you share your technical insights with us here at the KER.
Whatever the USDX does, it is set to fall versus the miners.
HUI:USD weekly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI%3A%24USD&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p53913963915&a=1048774571
Matthew, the Dollar does not kowtow to Gold miners.
It is the benchmark, though flawed, until it isn’t.
(20211023.1840)
BDC – I’d submit that the Dollar index is merely an odd mirrored reflection of how the other 6 currencies in the index are doing on the other side of see-saw. In that regard, the USDX is a bit of a nonsensical notion as money, as it doesn’t really reflect the dollar’s purchasing power in relation to goods and services (being eaten away by inflation), but rather, is a measure in how the race to the bottom is going in balance with the Euro, Pound, Yen, Loonie, Krona, and Franc.
When Oil decouples, Kissinger’s hell is revealed.
Until then benchmark, though not well heeled.
(NYT: 20211023.2040)
BDC, that’s a ridiculously unwarranted comment. My assertion was based on the charts at this time. It would have read the opposite in June or a year ago. Whether or not it is “the benchmark” is also immaterial.
It seems you’re a bit of a dollar bug projecting the inverse of your biases.
Matthew: Complex charts miss the simplicity of reality.
(NYT: 20211023.2150)
Only someone who doesn’t understand charts at all would make such a silly comment.
Your reality told you that silver’s move off the low was a head fake. It has gone up 13% (so far) since your declaration.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p39365087937&a=1048885206
Those who don’t trade the dollar should not be overly focused on it.
Food for thought:
The dollar index peaked at 100.60 in December 2015 when gold bottomed at 1045. In August, 2020, gold hit 2089 for a 100% gain since bottoming in 2015. Such a move implies a 50% drop in the dollar yet the dollar index only fell 8.5% while gold doubled (from 100.60 to 92.01). What gives? I know what gives which is why I also know that the dollar is King Nothing, a distraction.
More food for thought:
The dollar index bottomed at 71.33 in April, 2008 while gold peaked at about 1000 (1033 in March, 956 in April). Today, gold is up 80% since then while the dollar index is up 31%. How is that possible? You’ve got a problem if you don’t know.
And there you have it, the miners are up today even though the dollar is up. Gold, the real monetary benchmark, is up too. Of course, I wasn’t talking about one day when I said “whatever the USDX does, it is set to fall versus the miners.” I also never said or implied that the dollar “kowtows to the gold miners” as was asserted.
The fact is, the single best way to assess the dollar’s performance is to look at the gold price. It exposes the buck for scrawny little charade that it is. Those who focus on the dollar’s exchange rate with other currencies rather than its purchasing power in the real world are doing themselves a great disservice yet they are the majority. The owners of the system are masters at deceiving the public.
Nothing captures “the simplicity of reality” like the charts and this one shows the gold miners breaking out versus the USDX…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p79847452146&a=1049666078
Ex… Just wanted to say Thx. For the response to my AuN..GPR question.Almost missed it..SCZ is sure taking its time lifting its halt.Any reasoning to keep it from trading?
Ann:
Just a guess, but I think Santacruz is involved in an acquisition of property which requires more review than drill results or financing, etc. before the news can be released. If the public likes the acquisition, you can expect a gap up at open. Normally you can put a buy/sell order in and wait for the halt to be removed, but chances are expected price will be different than someone’s best guess….It can get frustrating waiting as these kinds of halts can be extended and halts can be lifted when least expected. It is a “wait and see”.
Thanks..David.. wait and see..I guess.
Hi Ann – Thanks and yes, always glad to discuss different companies, and as outlined on yesterday’s Dana Lyons blog, I’m constructive on the next 2 years with (AUN) Aurcana as they get into commercial production at Revenue Virginius, as they explore the 8 other viens besides the R.V. vein (which is also still open to the north and south for exploitation), and as they move into a feasibility study at Shafter in 2022, for potential production from mine #2 in 2023.
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As for (SCZ) Santacruz Silver, it has been one of my favorite ways to play the Jr silver producer space, and was similar in many ways to (IPT) Impact Silver as the tiniest of the producers, with exploration upside, and the biggest increases on a percentage basis to margins when the metals prices improved and went from the teens to the twenties on silver prices.
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The reason for the halt (it may last for a bit) is that they are taking over operations of a few Glencore Silver/Zinc/Lead mines, which are non-core for Glencore, but will very important to Santacruz. As David eluded to above, since it is a more material transaction for the company, and one I personally really like for SCZ, it takes more approvals from both companies to release the halt. It was a bit of a bummer to have it halted last week though, as they put out a good Q3 operations report, and silver was climbing higher so they’d have had really good rising torque to that action.
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I’m not sure what the reaction to the new larger Santacruz with more operating mines will be, but personally I like it and takes them up the food-chain into more of a mid-tier producer role, and thus will open them up to a larger pool of investors and ETF inclusion. However, it does take away some of the appeal of why I liked SCZ being so tiny and highly torqued to rising metals prices.
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However, Zinc and Lead prices have been surging lately, and if they get more mines producing successfully, then I can see how Glencore would benefit from the valuation lift that this would give Santacruz Silver. It’s similar to why Glencore spun out several non-core Zinc mines to Trevali (TV) which are finally starting to get traction on those lately, and I believe (TV) may surprise some folks over the next few quarters and by mid-2022 should be rerated much higher. It’s also similar to why (PAAS) Pan American Silver spun out their royalty assets to Maverix (MMX), because they were non-core to a company of their size, but they could realize much more value on those assets by having a strategic stake in a more junior company that would be able to realize bigger valuation jumps on those assets. In many regards, that is what I believe Glencore is doing with it’s incubators of Trevali and now Santacruz Silver.
(SCZ) (SZSMF) Santacruz to Acquire Glencore’s Producing Silver Mines in Bolivia Creating a New Significant Latin American based Silver Producer
– 13 Oct 2021
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>Key Transaction Highlights
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-Creation of a significant Americas-focused silver producer approaching senior status, with additional significant leverage to the zinc market
-Diversifies production across a robust portfolio of producing mines and creates a platform for future growth
-Assets include five producing mines, two exploration projects, three milling facilities, one trading company and two power plants (thermo and hydroelectric) among the most relevant
-For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, the Assets produced 6.4MM oz Ag Eq
-Immediately accretive to cash flow and all key metrics
-Majority of consideration deferred and to be funded by cash flows resulting in limited upfront dilution compared to an all-share transaction
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https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/santacruz-to-acquire-glencores-producing-silver-mines
Again, to clear up any confusion, this is the reason Santacruz Silver has been halted.
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As mentioned it is a bit of a bummer, because with Silver running recently and the Silver stocks bouncing, they would have had a nice move up, especially having put out a solid Q3 operations report this week.
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(SCZ) (SZSMF) Santacruz Silver Reports Q3 2021 Production of 872,913 Silver Equivalent Ounces
-20 Oct 2021
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-Consolidated silver equivalent production for Q3 2021 was 872,913 AgEq ounces; an increase of over 9% compared to Q2 2021
-Zimapan silver equivalent production for Q3 2021 was 867,215 AgEq ounces; an increase of over 14% compared to Q2 2021 that arose primarily as the result of a 20% increase in tonnes milled during the respective periods
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Carlos Silva, Santacruz’s CEO stated, “The production increase during Q3 arose mainly from the Carrizal and Monte mines as a result of development of new stopes at Lomo del Toro setting the stage for a strong year end.” Mr. Silva added; “All underground equipment from the Rosario project is now working at Lomo de Toro and it is expected that with this additional equipment production will further increase during Q4.”
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https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/santacruz-silver-reports-q3-2021-production-of-872913
EX or anybody – any clue when Santacruz might start trading again? We are seeing a fairly substantial trading halt here.
Hi Mike. No idea, as the halt is more substantial due to the takeover of the Glencore silver mines, as noted above. Sometimes those more material transactions take longer for the trading halt.
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It’s a bummer though as Santacruz would be ripping higher the last 2 weeks with the rebound in Silver and the mining stocks. It just timed out in an unfortunate way, but that’s how things go…
SCZ and IPT are my largest holdings now, it is frustrating waiting for SCZ but something else must be brewing on the back burner. I waited 4-5 months for zinc one to come off a halt then it tripled in one day and I sold out almost all my stock, now it is back down and not talked about at all.
FINALLY your guests are admitting that we are going down the rabbit hole!
Alice in Wonderland: Down the Rabbit Hole
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https://youtu.be/Q93VrYOXSe8?t=38
I didn’t hear that.
I continue to be amazed by this – we have been falling down this particular rabbit hole for several years now and the light at the end of that tunnel stays the same distance from us so obviously the tunnel only gets longer and longer.
To me making comparisons with the past is a dangerous business since we have never been here before. Over at Real Vision’s Exchange I got into a very civil discussion with a fellow who knows lots more about finance than I do in a thread entitled “Why Should Gold Rise?”. During the course of it I realized something basic – the Fed has so altered the economy with its activities that it may be impossible to infer the future from past events. One thing for sure – they have changed the perceptions of the public so that any real fear of inflation hasn’t existed. To me that is one big reason why gold hasn’t actually risen a lot. Once the true cost of inflation hits the public in the face we will see if gold remains an inflation hedge. That is also when we will see if Bitcoin is a real inflation hedge.
One thing to add – the events surrounding Covid are also is involved with this. Covid gave the Fed cover to do what it did. If Covid never happened the “day of reckoning” would have occurred much sooner.
Thanks for the audios and the guest Cory, al and ex! Also thx for the info and continuous hard work behind the scenes to keep us entertained and informed. I couldn’t think of a better place to read and listen every morning with my cup of coffee 🙂
Matthew thanks for those great charts and forks and keep them coming. I can’t keep up sometimes. Ever since I applied those forks few years back, it’s been a game changer and they really have become a part of my go to.
Ann I’m not sure and I have no idea but could there be a possibility Santa Cruz is getting acquired? At its most recent correction and low from that top it suddenly halts. I mean if I’m a big boy I’m going in for the kill on that company. I hope for the folks who own it that they are not acquired and are being the Acquirees lol..
I really like the moves in the miners and I think many still have another week of push up possibly before some pull back but it all looks good and healthy from here. We may trend sideways for a bit after this move higher but it’s very encouraging and it totally feels like big money behind it.
All the best to everyone and I hope you learn to take some profits when you can and rotate and cost average when you can.
Glen
Ditto.. Glen..great guests and weekend show.Thanks,Cory
Thanks Glenfidish. Yes, Cory & I do work hard behind the scenes to keep bringing on insightful guests that are thought leaders in their respective areas, along with a stream of steady company interviews that are doing good work to advance their projects.
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It is really nice to have both Jesse and Rick as our guest commentators this weekend show. I personally really resonate with many of the points Jesse made and view the medium to longer term macro economics set up in a very similar way.
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> Also a very big thanks to all our listeners and to those that contribute their insights to the KER blog day in and day out, as we appreciate your participation. Ever Upward!
BANG: Why The Gold Miners Could Soon Make FANG Look Tame, Part Deux
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Jesse Felder – October 20, 2021
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“A few years ago, I suggested the gold miners, which I referred to as the BANG stocks (Barrick, Agnico Eagle and Newmont/Goldcorp), could soon make the FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google/Alphabet) look tame. Over the next couple of years, that trade worked pretty well. Over the past year, though, investors have once again abandoned BANG in favor of FANG. As a result, the major gold mining companies have become very cheap again.”
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“Another way to view the pervasive pessimism towards the group is to simply plot the relative performance of the gold mining stocks along with the gold price. With the latter soaring over the past five years you would think that the former would be outperforming and yet the miners’ performance has been absolutely pathetic compared to the S&P 500.”
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“Part of this is due to the stellar performance of the broad stock market, led by the likes of FANG, but this gap could be closed by an equity bear market (driven by an earnings recession next year). It is also likely due to the fact that investors believe the bull market in gold is now over. But if you believe, as I do, that gold prices are only in the middle of a new longer-term bull market (as the history of prior bull markets for the precious metal would suggest) then gold miner shares are just far too cheap at today’s prices.”
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https://thefelderreport.com/2021/10/20/bang-why-the-gold-miners-could-soon-make-fang-look-tame-part-deux/
Is The Stock Market Starting To Discount An Earnings Recession?
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Jesse Felder – October 6, 2021
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“Earnings growth has been terrific over the past several quarters, proving a strong tailwind for stock prices. For astute market watchers, however, this should not come as any surprise. The decline in interest rates, oil prices and the dollar over the past couple of years, in fact, predicted it. As a group, these markets have proven for decades now to be a far better forecaster of S&P 500 earnings growth than any analyst on Wall Street.”
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“With inflation pressures continuing to rise even as record amounts of fiscal stimulus begin to wear off and the economy clearly slows, however, an earnings recession over the next several quarters should also come as no surprise. In fact, that is exactly what the recent action in interest rates, oil prices and the dollar now point to. Considering valuations are more extreme than ever before and investors are also more highly leveraged than any other time in the past, a shifting in this fundamental driver of stock prices from tailwind to headwind should be something investors pay close attention to.”
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https://thefelderreport.com/2021/10/06/is-the-stock-market-starting-to-discount-an-earnings-recession/
Where Are We In The Market Cycle?
Jesse Felder – October 13, 2021
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“Lately, I’ve started to notice many signs suggesting we are now well past the peak in risk appetites. To begin with, Citi’s panic/euphoria model, developed by Tobias Levkovich (and renamed in his honor after he sadly passed away last weekend), is a terrific visual representation of this phenomenon. In the early part of this year, it soared to a new high, taking out the high put in just over 20 years ago, at the height of the Dotcom Mania. It has since rolled over from that peak although it remains in extreme territory.”
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“The popularity of Robinhood’s trading app is another important indicator. Bloomberg reports, ‘Robinhood’s app downloads, a proxy for account openings, fell 78% in the third quarter compared with the second,’ said JPMorgan analysts, citing tracking data from Apptopia… Daily active users plunged 40% during the period.” Animal spirits have clearly sustained a damaging blow in recent months; whether that blow proves fatal, though, will be revealed in time.”
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https://thefelderreport.com/2021/10/13/where-are-we-in-the-market-cycle/
“Transitory Is Dead.”
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Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (10/16/2021)
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“With the Fed owning roughly one-quarter of the federal debt held by the public on which the Treasury must pay interest — and with the Fed’s practice of sending weekly remittances to the Treasury — it’s clear that monetary and fiscal policy are conflated.”
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https://mailchi.mp/felder/transitory-is-dead?e=baab1fcdca
Jesse really knocked it out of the park in this weekend show’s segments, because he pointed out that inflation is definitely not transitory, that the Fed is going to have all kinds of challenges every normalizing interest rates or stopping completely their accommodative policies, and that the driver for the PMs will be once the markets wake up from their delusionary thinking regarding growth, inflation, and where things are heading and rotate more funds to the Precious Metals.
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For most of the early part of the year we had to contend with article after article and television interview on all the main stream financial media lemmings that believed Powell and the Fed’s complete horse dung that inflation would just be “transitory” and that deflation was the real worry. Cough… Ahem… Anyone that was living in the real world, or shopping, or paying for services, knew that was simply not the case at all, and there was no way it would just be transitory with all the money printing, and was not just the base effect or supply chain issues, although those both played a role. Now those voices assuring us inflation would just be transitory and to watch out for deflation are oddly silent when it is clear as day that inflation has been the wrecking ball in the economy all year, and in businesses and end-consumers ability to purchase the items they need for day to day life.
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I also thought Jesse made a fantastic point that often times, in a general market crash, money just gets vaporized. Thus, it doesn’t necessarily need to “rotate” from the general markets to PMs, as some of that money is just going to get torched in a corrective move and go to money heaven. As Jesse pointed out there is a tone of cash sitting on the sidelines that could easily get allocated to the Precious Metals related assets and instruments, and this would provide the fuel for the next leg higher in this evolving bull market.
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Lastly, Jesse made great points about how Silver could outperform Gold, much like a few other guests we brought on recently have mentioned, and that while commodities may be short-term overbought, they still have a long way to travel higher in the larger reversion to the mean in the commodities versus general markets as inflation rages on.
Here’s the analog chart discussed in the Jesse Felder interview on this weekend show.
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https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-18-at-2.37.23-PM-1536×1110.png
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The chart shows the close 95% correlation to prior period of 1995- 2007 where first that bear market in PMs from 2011 – 2015 overlays quite well, as does the current correlation in the bull market that started in late 2015 to present to what happened during that prior cycle.
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What is most interesting is the period that lies ahead, if things keep tracking that trajectory. It could be quite a substantial move higher over the medium to longer term.
Thanx for FAB guest experts…Continually……🔊🔆🔊
Thanks Larry. We are grateful to get market insights from some really great guests here on the KER.
The Crow Line : Gold Must Hold
https://tinyurl.com/3fbwfbkf
2018 resembles 1999
(20211023.1300)
It seems quite likely that the Crow Line will hold and even if gold plunged a few hundred bucks, it would merely come down to test it. (however that would be a painful experience for the mining stocks, so that isn’t something I’d want to see play out in a theater near me.)
If CL(2018) holds successfully, my guess is 2600, 3rd quarter 2023.
(NY Time: 20211023.1915)
My posts seem to be blocked.
Is there any way to contact someone about that?
B- I noticed many of your posts were showing up in moderation (mostly from the political section). Have you recently changed your email address or IP address compared to what you have used before? I believe the system thinks you are new poster and it keeps triggering it to check for that reason. When I see them in moderation I try to release them, but don’t know if Big Al has noticed as some days they’ve been there for a day or two from the political section.
Thx Ex, at least there is some kind of reason.
But no, nothing has changed on my side.
It has got to be the new format.
Also, there is a drop box that asks for a login and register.
That doesnt seem to work either, maybe that has something to do with it?
How many other people may be having difficulties?
There is no contact email that I can find.
It’s weird then. The new format on the landing page for how editorials get posted, didn’t do anything to change how people sign up to be a user to post or how existing one’s post. The format and functionality on the blog is exactly the same as it was, now that we fixed the cascading hierarchy on replies, and it is expanded now with the ability to edit a post. Sometimes editing a post twice can cause it to get sent to moderation as a heads up, and that is programmed in to address potential misuse of posting. The only remaining issue we have is there are no spaces between paragraph breaks, and we are working to address that.
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Also, it isn’t happening to anyone else’s email/username except you. Are you sure you didn’t reset your internet connection or do something with computers on your end that would be generating a new IP address?
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As for the contact emails, they are Cory and I and we post them on most of the daily editorials. His email is Fleck@kereport.com and my email is Shad@kereport.com.
Misplaced or deleted space, caps, periods…anything like that will mess it up.
How to Value Mining Stocks with Canada’s Top Gold Stock Fund Manager Kevin MacLean
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Mining Stock Education – Oct 20, 2021
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0:00 Introduction
1:45 Kevin’s journey to becoming a gold stock fund manager
6:25 The key quality you possess which produced your successful career?
9:02 Incorporating a macro analysis into bottom-up investing
10:53 How to value a producing mining company
20:49 Why do generalist money managers buy gold stocks?
24:42 Harvesting gold sector volatility
26:53 How to value developers
30:07 Role of site tours in due diligence
32:51 Developers’ feasibility study cost inputs are inaccurate now
34:30 How to value an exploration company
40:42 Explorers and warrants
43:04 Appropriate management compensation
46:16 Role of royalty companies in mining sector
49:46 Non-traditional questions you ask mining company management?
55:20 Your biggest mistake and what did you learn?
1:00:56 Macro-view of current gold stock investing opportunity
1:04:16 Carbon markets
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https://youtu.be/qk6Z3WINuSQ
This was a great interview with Kevin MacLean. His discussion on how to evaluate producers, reminded me why I generally steer clear of some of the larger majors, especially over long periods of time, as they are generally trades if I pick them up. With the smaller producers, and even many of the mid-tier producers, it’s a bit of a different game where exploration success, or new development projects, or acquisitions can move the needle in more significant ways.
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Kevin’s points on developers reinforces why I like to pick these off right before they get into their “golden runway” phase of the Lassonde Curve, and many times will exit near first pour (like what I did with Pure Gold, Northern Vertex and Harte gold), and then buy back in after they run into their inevitable challenges and get sold down to a cheaper valuation. We spend much of yesterday discussing that regarding Novo Resources over at ceo.ca.
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With regards to the exploration stocks, I believe Kevin nailed it, in saying that most of the time he would completely steer clear of grassroots exploration plays unless the teams were serially successful in finding the type of mineral they were looking for in the past, and in a similar or same jurisdiction. This is why I personally pass on most early stage drill plays, unless they have a very compelling reason to succeed.
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For example… That’s why I was willing to take a gamble with Simon over at Volcanic Gold – because he had worked in Guatemala for 2-3 decades, had actually discovered both Cerro Blanco (now being developed by Bluestone) and Escobal (now held by Pan American Silver nearby), and was aiming to do it for a 3rd time. He learned his lesson by not drilling deep enough at the prior 2 projects, and the companies that took them over got the glory for it, but it was actually Simon’s exploration team that did the initial exploration work and discovery. He’d been sitting on the Holly and Banderas projects for 12+ years (most recently holding them in Radius Gold) waiting for the right political environment and time in the PM sector where he could raise the capital to fund a new exploration company and give them the work they deserve. Since Simon had been serially successful in a number of ventures, most notably with Fortuna Silver, and had made 2 prior discoveries in Guatemala, and had raised the money to really drill the projects properly and was good for exploring in both 2021 and 2022, then that is why I was willing to get into (VG) as a grassroots style exploration play here. Most of the times I’ve been burnt the last few years in miners was when I got into grassroots exploration plays too casually and then the story didn’t pan out.
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In general, I agree with Kevin’s points about sticking with the more advanced exploration plays, once they’ve proved that they have found something significant and then believe that they can duplicate this experience again. This is the criteria with most of the advanced explorers and developers in my portfolio – where they’ve defined ounces in the ground and there is something tangible underpinning the valuation, (or undervaluation in many cases). The recent success that FPX Nickel has had is a perfect recent example. Martin and team had already proved they had a winner at Baptiste (as the world’s 3rd largest undeveloped Nickel asset), and they believed they could find something similar or better at the Van target. Since Martin knows the nickel sector and geology better than almost anyone, and felt the rocks that outcrop at surface were indicating another massive system similar to Baptiste right near-by on the same land package, then I was willing to take the gamble that Martin’s team could hit paydirt twice…. And now they have as of last week. Success leaves clues… and I’m more comfortable following teams that have been serially successful, and deposits and areas that have been serially well-endowed geologically.
It’s all a game of chicken, Uncle Fed is on welfare, and life support. I find it totally incredulous that so many newsletter writers still think the Fed is important. What played out yesterday was Gold took off and then around noon The Fed came out and said they had already started to taper. The gold price immediately started to correct. What utter nonsense yet people still believe that they are omnipotent. Look, it’s a game of chicken, the only tool The Fed has left is to utter statements of reassurance for the markets, The Fed is beaten. This game will end soon when The Price Of Gold starts to climb again very rapidly and Powell comes and makes a statement that tapering is having an effect and interest rates may be raised soon. There are only so many times you can tell The Big Lie before people realize that soothing words are all the emperor has left and they have played chicken too many times. Boom the gold price will skyrocket and stay there, no matter what soothing words are spoken.
As in March of this year and March of last year, GDX:QQQ has a new weekly MACD buy signal (now 2 weeks old) that implies many more weeks of the gold miners outperforming the stock market.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AQQQ&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p16373791167&a=948507271
Here’s a GDXJ breakout that did not hold on a closing basis yesterday:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p24713279149&a=1041295403
This SLV:GLD breakout also did not hold for yesterday’s close…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p50243332070&a=941362440
HUI:GLD has a brand new weekly MACD buy signal, its first since March. It also now has 2 weekly closes above 3 fork support levels that were broken many weeks ago.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p01197327902&a=1043060938
Here’s an interesting graphic visualization of all the metals we mined in 2019. It is likely quite similar today.
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https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/All-the-Metals-We-Mined.jpg
Yes, transitory is dead. Check out the wage pressure in Cory’s neighborhood:
B.C. restaurant ad offering $50K salary for dishwasher sparks labour shortage discussion.
To put that in perspective, a starting teacher salary is $53K.
Transitory was never alive. Transitory propaganda is dead.
+1 Agreed.
Agreed. Transitory is dead, as Jesse quipped in that tweet posted above.
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Jetty – The labor shortage is real, but that’s crazy about the $50k dish washers. Two years of lockdowns and last year’s riots & looting changed business, office life, and the labor force from now on. Also all the handouts in the form of increased unemployment, government helicopter money, and exemptions from rent and paying pack student loans etc… has just reinforced even more bad behaviors. Then nanny state is growing, and with more people sucking on the government teat for subsistence, it is likely the dress rehearsal for universal basic income and full on socialistic policies.
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This recent cartoon sums things up perfectly:
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https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1gn8liv-51CF543E-84D0-4925-9DC3-82AA8AF269F9.jpeg
If people want to see what the future of these progressive collectivist policies look like, then a glimpse at what has been happening in Australia is instructive.
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Someone named @kuston posted this over at ceo.ca today, and hit’s it right on the nose.
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_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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@kuston – “On this nice Saturday morning I have a chart to share, this is what happens when a country (Australia) let’s the gestapo take over. Capital doesn’t like fascism it turns and runs.”
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https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/capital-flows
It’s not often your ideological blinkers have you this far off the mark Ex. There is no nanny state, incipient, nascent or otherwise. Working people aren’t on the government teat. They just weigh the risks of minimum wage work in an economy completely committed to laissez faire capitalism…for workers…and are saying ‘take your mcjobs and shove them’.
I wouldn’t worry overly about this development. Working people are thoroughly beaten down and pose no threat to their masters.
Blaze, you’ve absolutely squandered your time on earth. The least you could do is spare us your confusion.
We’ll have to agree to disagree then, which is fine. The Nanny State is on full parade, and the very high unemployment benefits and extended timelines of benefit enabled a great number of people to say take your McJobs and shove them. The forgiveness of student loans is another Nanny State initiative, which encourages bad fiscal behavior in not paying back loans (something the government is also quite adept at) and passes along those losses to the taxpayers for more and more bailouts. The government should have never gotten involved in the supposedly free market system in the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis and bailed out any business as “too big to fail,” and that was another example of the growing Nanny State.
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Sending out helicopter money a few times last year (after locking down businesses, destroying small businesses, and a year of rioting and burning down about 60 US cities in the “summer of love”, or sending checks to people this year for the mere fact that they popped out a couple of kids is further Nanny State action, and this all softens peoples resolve to eventually just go ahead and accept U.B.I. – Universal Basic Income — an allowance from Nanny.
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There there are all the rules blocking evictions from renters that don’t pay their landlords, because of the pandemic lockdowns they instated, and people sitting at home not working that they enabled, which only creates more laziness, less initiative, and more people dependent on Nanny. Nevermind, all the small business owners and real estate investors that were harmed by this “compassionate” policy, as they can’t pay their mortgages now with their renters not paying. Meanwhile, the massive investment houses like Blackrock and Vanguard are buying up all these properties from landlords that can’t make end meet, with all the money they siphoned out of the markets for the last decade borrowing money for nothing, thanks to the near zero percent interest rate policies, and all the government spending and central bank policies juicing the general markets to nosebleed levels.
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People are losing the will to go back to work because the government is subsidizing them stay at home and play videos or be web cam models. If the requirements for welfare, food stamps, and qualifying for the safety net (which is supposed to protect the 10%-15% most vulnerable — not half the country) were more stringent, and screened for drugs, had a serious path and action plan towards getting back on their feet through education or job training, that would be one thing, but that isn’t and hasn’t been the plan. The government likes more and more people sucking on the Nanny state teat.
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The whole border disaster is just more clear proof of this where they are letting insane amounts of people from many South and Central American countries flood into the country under the guise that they are all “refugees” and sneering in the face of the actual laws, and then doing catch & release right back into the country without any penalty for breaking our laws, or missing their court dates, and then those people get free healthcare, free education, and compete with legal citizens for work without vaccine mandates, at the exact same time many people are getting fired or leaving jobs due to these draconian vaccine mandates (which are also completely illegal). This creates even more people now flooding the country dependent on the Nanny State.
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Just the huge overreach by the federal government into areas is has no business dictating rules on, which are clearly states right issues, is another example of the growth in the Nanny State, inserting itself into every area of life. Now the old bird Yellen, prior central bankster crony, and now part of the treasury secretary cabal, is giving the thumbs up to having the federal government track every $600 transaction of everyday citizens, (supposedly worried about collecting more taxes from the working stiffs that still have jobs) while simultaneously paying out gobs of money (using taxes collected) to supposed businesses, many of which are complete shams like the art gallery getting massive 6-figure PPP payments from the Nanny state to showcase Hunter Bidens art paintings. It’s only getting more ridiculous out there.
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Sorry, but there is insurmountable evidence of the Nanny state growing larger with every policy passed, with each individual liberty trampled on, and the newly proposed “Infrastructure… but very little about Infrastructure” bill and the monstrosity of the Nanny developed “Reconciliation” bill show that there is a whole lot more of this nonsense on tap.
This recent cartoon sums things up perfectly:
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https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1gn8liv-51CF543E-84D0-4925-9DC3-82AA8AF269F9.jpeg
Off the mark again Ex. The bottom line is where the money goes. The government is proposing blatant socialist policies costing $350 billion a year for ten years. Do we greet it with the appropriate yawn? Call it properly a ‘a drop in the bucket’. Of course not. It’s a 3.5 trillion undermining of the American Way designed to corrupt what exactly? The moral fabric of our nation? Our precious bodily fluids?
Meanwhile propose 12 trillion over those same ten years with every last penny to be spent outside our borders and the reaction is a collective yawn. Yet that’s where the money goes.
1.2 trillion a year. To over 800 foreign military bases. To 17 national ‘security’ agencies that in addition to running black ops in 150 countries will at least spend some of it within our borders spying on our citizens. The real American socialism in action
The third, and rapidly increasing number, of Americans working minimum wage jobs benefit soooo much from all this. It’s only been going on since 1945. At least we were rebuilding the free world then. What exactly are we building now?
Right. We’re building a nanny state. And it’s all underpinned by a collectivist cabal just beavering away while refusing to work these swell minimum wage jobs.
As i said previously, it’s not often your ideological blinkers override your common sense Ex. You’re veering into Mathewland where it’s all one big commie plot.
You’re way better than that.
Blazesb, I don’t disagree with you on the point of the massive amounts of budget overspend by the US military, or the amount of time that the fiscal mismanagement of most areas of government both domestic and abroad has been going on, or the changing labor markets.
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However, on many of the other areas, we are looking at things much differently, which is OK, and I’ll leave it that.
Blaze is the repugnant and unthinking little guy that called me a fascist. That says it all about his intellect. He is obviously impervious to truths that are incompatible with his programming.
Here’s a tragically funny Saturday cartoon.
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https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1gn8le4-664E5A0A-E254-4836-8C58-96FC6B9E036D.jpeg
2021 marks the 40 year anniversary for declining interest rates. This to me was especially interesting after reading the book recommended by the Mathew, “The Fourth Turning” In this book it said cycles usually happen every 20 years which is a function of demographics. If you go back to 1981 and the double digit interest rates in the bond markets, the timing for a turn is well with in prediction. The big money is in fixed income. Corey likes to say where will the money go? I believe interest rates in the Bond market will tell the story.
That’s right, John. Interest rates will tell the story and many will be caught on the wrong side, even professionals. Very few active participants today can fathom gold rising in lockstep with interest rates but that’s what’s coming.
Agreed. We saw that same thing, rising interest rates, where the Fed finally started to tighten rates after 8 years of dovish accommodation and near zero interest rates, mark the end of the Gold bear market in late 2015.
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If/when the Fed does try and hike rates again, they’ll still be way “behind the curve,” as usual, and there is no way they are going to be able to normalize rates up where inflation is at 4%-6%. This failure to keep up with inflation, but admission by central banksters that they need to hike rates to at least catch up some will be a large boon for Gold.
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Even if they hike rates, with inflation outpacing interest rates, it keeps real rates negative which is very good for the precious metals. Jordan Roy-Byrne has been mentioning for most of this year that when the Fed starts hiking rates, it will underpin a lift-off in the PM sectors, and it is one of the 2 main catalysts he he watching to kick off the next big leg higher in Gold.
Gold Stock Mean-Reversion in Progress
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David Erfle – Friday October 22nd
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“Despite long-term interest rates continuing to move upwards, the precious metal’s sector has been steadily finding buyers since late September. Previously, rising bond yields acted as a factor for selling both gold and silver, paying no dividends or coupons. I believe the main reason for the recent dis-connect is investors viewing inflation differently since the end of September.”
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“Never-ending supply chain problems, high energy prices, and accelerating wage growth has been amplifying pro-inflationary factors. This trend shows no sign of slowing down anytime soon and has investors questioning the world’s largest central bank’s “temporary” argument regarding inflation.”
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“Last week, the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics released the inflationary numbers for September, which showed U.S Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) accelerated by a whopping 5.4% from a year ago – its largest increase since July 2008.”
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https://mailchi.mp/b37458c0417f/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1600210
@Matthew
I won’t blame anyone if they miss a positive correlation of gold and interest rates, as most of the time it’s negative. Just now on the weekly, correlation is zero.
I’m using $TNX to graph interest rates. Maybe there’s a better proxy.
5-year weekly: https://schrts.co/zpJYvDPi
Yes, they’ve been negatively correlated for virtually all of the last 40 years which is exactly why many won’t understand when the change takes place. Some will even press their wrong bets in disbelief as the market moves further against them.
It pays to understand the monetary system.
Good thoughts John, and yes there will be a rotation out of the bond markets, as the rates that treasuries pay at 1.5-2% are being eaten up by inflation that is running much hotter at around 4-6% CPI readings. Why park money in an instrument losing 3%-4% per year for 10 years. The question is where those funds are going to go for a safe haven. I wrote an article that was posted here at the KER earlier this year about the potential rotation out of bonds and into gold as the next big longer term catalyst in the PM space that got into this topic
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The Great Sector Rotation Out Of Bonds And Into Gold
– Feb 7, 2021
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http://www.kereport.com/2021/02/07/the-great-sector-rotation-out-of-bonds-and-into-gold/
Also as noted above, that there is plenty of money on the sidelines in cash, that can rotate into Gold. That is above and beyond the effects of money rotating out of Bond or the General Markets into the safe have of Gold, as things further deteriorate.
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I also thought Jesse made a fantastic point, in this weekend show, that often times, in a general market crash, money just gets vaporized. It will be the same as the bond bubble bursts.
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Thus, money doesn’t necessarily need to “rotate” from the general markets to PMs, as some of that money is just going to get torched in a corrective move and go to money heaven. As Jesse pointed out there is a tone of cash sitting on the sidelines that could easily get allocated to the Precious Metals related assets and instruments, and this would provide the fuel for the next leg higher in this evolving bull market.
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Still, as Rick pointed out in the weekend show, the old adage around bond allocation by financial planners for the last 3-4 decades is over. That old school of thinking where portfolios were allocated with 60% equities and 40% bonds, where as people age they decreased their equities exposure and increased their bond exposure to 70/30, 80/20, 90/10 is going the way of the dodo bird. Extinct.
I have saved this post along with its embedded link into my Favorites called ‘fundamentals precious metal’…Staggeringly great summary of reasons for and fundamentals of……This is a world class metals investing information site…I am fortunate to have wondered into all of this…….Matthew beats me to all the charts all the time…..My charts just look crummy, I understand that, but they are based on sound technicals…….I may try the charts with a light background, however the dark just works nicely in my brightly lit trading office…We will see…In my method of trading I now have to move my stop up because the extension targets are met……Previously the stops were adjusted up to 1.618 of the average 10 day ATR(average true range) subtracted from the closing price….Now I will choke it with 1.218 fibs…..The volume in gold futures was huge on Friday and profit taking was natural at that gap and supply volume level…So looks ok for now….Unlike you all, I only trade JNUG and Nugt analogs off of their underlying…..Also,I do acknowledge that during extreme liquidation events due to margin calls etc. that miners get whacked hard also…I understand that miners may be outperforming general equity during general routs but I will not hold during those even if I miss the first 4 or 5% of the turn around move…I always wait for price to close above my daily OUL for two sessions…or even a retest of the OUL……and those can be brief early morning rapid flush out!…lmao…glta…get some coffee, you will like it….😎
Good comments Larry, and we absolutely appreciate the charts and technical analysis you share with us here at the KE Report, and your observations and contributions are top notch sir. Much appreciated.
Has the Lost Island of Gold been found?
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By Nick Enoch – 23 October 2021
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“Sumatran fishermen find a huge treasure trove including a buddha worth millions that could be all that remains of civilisation of untold wealth that disappeared 700 years ago”
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“The site of a fabled Indonesian kingdom renowned for its golden treasures may finally have been discovered on Sumatra, known as the Island of Gold.”
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“For the past five years, fishermen exploring the crocodile-infested Musi River, near Palembang, have hauled a staggering treasure trove from the depths – including gemstones, gold ceremonial rings, coins and bronze monks’ bells.”
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“One of the most incredible finds so far is a jewel-encrusted life-size statue of Buddha from the 8th century, which is worth millions of pounds.”
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10122973/Lost-Island-Gold-Sumatran-fishermen.html
Salazar Resources (SRL,TSX-V) FridayAM. 3000 M. drill program on Ruminahui. *Note* 100% owned project.
By every rule of logic the situation has become more perilous. If inflation was bad in 2020, it is far more serious in 2021. Inflation is preposterous now, people expect that after every crash there will be a recovery. The really wise man is not the investor who buys in and holds on. The Reserve Board has expressed fear of inflation, but inflation according to them has failed to bring hard times. The Federal Reserve is pumping up the conventional stock market because it makes the public believe it is much richer than they are. This is a mug’s game, and gold will benefit but the public will lose.
Well-stated DT.
Sunak Says Inflation, Rates Feed Into Budget Thinking
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By Reuters – Oct. 24, 2021
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“British finance minister Rishi Sunak said on Sunday that the outlook for interest rates and inflation will feed into his thinking ahead of next week’s annual budget.”
“Inflation, interest rates – those are two of the factors which I have to think about as I determine what’s the appropriate fiscal policy, what’s the right level of tax and borrowing and spending,” Sunak said in an interview with Times Radio.
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https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-10-24/sunak-says-inflation-rates-feed-into-budget-thinking
Jeffrey Gundlach Says Inflation Will Stay Above 4% Through 2022
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Jeff Cox – 1 day ago
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“Billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach said inflation likely will stay above 5% in 2021 and exceed 4% through next year.”
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“Gundlach conceded that some price increases, such as lumber and some other commodities, are temporary, but said others are not.”
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/jeffrey-gundlach-says-inflation-will-stay-above-4-25-through-2022/ar-AAPQ5vb?ocid=BingNewsSearch
Powell Says Supply-Side Constraints Have Worsened, Creating More Inflation Risk
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The Wall Street Journal – By Nick Timiraos – Oct. 22, 2022
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“The U.S. inflation rate reached a 13-year high recently, triggering a debate about whether the country is entering an inflationary period similar to the 1970s. WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath looks at what consumers can expect next.”
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“Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated he is now somewhat more concerned about higher inflation and said that the central bank would watch carefully for signs that households and businesses were expecting sustained price pressures to continue.”
“Supply-side constraints have gotten worse,” Mr. Powell said Friday at a virtual conference. “The risks are clearly now to longer and more-persistent bottlenecks, and thus to higher inflation.”
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The central bank is on track to conclude asset-purchase stimulus program by mid-2022.”
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-says-supply-side-constraints-are-creating-more-inflation-risk-11634917630
UK Inflation Could Top 5% By Early 2022, Says Bank’s New Chief Economist
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The Guardian – Mark Sweney Fri 22 Oct 2022
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“The Bank of England had previously said it expected inflation to exceed 4% by the end of the year.”
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“Inflation has been on the rise this year, with businesses recovering from the coronavirus pandemic, energy prices soaring, the cost of petrol hitting an eight-year high and disruptions in the global supply chain continuing to have a knock-on effect on costs.”
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“I would not be shocked, let’s put it that way, if we see an inflation print close to or above 5% [in the months ahead],” Pill told the Financial Times. “And that’s a very uncomfortable place for a central bank with an inflation target of 2% to be.”
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/22/uk-inflation-could-top-5-per-cent-early-2022-bank-new-chief-economist
Inflation Is Here. Everyone’s Cutting Earnings Guidance.
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Barron’s – Al Root – Oct. 22, 2021
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“Industrial companies are doing an admirable job of fighting inflation, but guidance for the fourth quarter is coming down. Demand isn’t the problem. Costs are.”
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/facebook-stock-earnings-preview-51635020234
Saturday Night Stevie : Silver Stranded?
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2021/10/silver-stranded_23.html
Off Topic:
In the wee hours of Oct 24 an ambulance slipped in and out silently, to attend the fully vaxxed next door. Will know soon enough if the destination was hospital or funeral home. Anyone over 60 having complications from the jab, people just say, “He was old”.
Irwin, he was old and soon to be collecting social security, mark one for the indebted government. I usually don’t believe in conspiracy’s but this time I just might.
Ha! That thought didn’t occur to me, but yes, it could be. In which case I’m on the list. NJY (not jabbed yet).
DT, conspiracies have never been rare throughout history and modern times are as full of them as any.
Those who dismiss anyone as a “conspiracy theorist” are only alerting us to their complete brainwashing and inability to think critically and productively. The same is true of all those Lefty automatons these days who incorrectly call their opponents fascists or racists.
“He who obeys does not listen to himself!” – Friedrich Nietzsche
Automatons Matthew? Is that the new sheeple, a more sophisticated sheeple?
Automaton = sheep par excellence, i.e. the ultimate sheep 🤨
It seems every time I listen to commentary, I am always waiting for the obvious to be said, but it never is.
People talk of the financial markets like we are in some kind of “normal ” environment. Nothing could be further from the obvious. Notice I didn’t say the truth, as everybody has their own truth depending on how much education they have had to arrive at such.
In 2008 the Federal Reserve entered unchartered waters with their unconventional monetary policy and started quantitative easing. Can you really believe they had any idea what they were doing other than kicking the can down the road?
Anybody with two functioning brain cells left knows that the Fed is trapped. A 1% rise in interest rates translates into 220 Billion in interest the treasury has to pay.
The comment that it takes dollars to buy Gold,I have to ask “What do you buy cryptos with?”
Also I will add , how can you avoid the elephant in the room which is China and also India when the conversation turns to cryptos?
Crypto currencies are technology. As time moves on there is always a better technology on the horizon.
People gravitate to what is new and captures their attention. The younger generation is no exception.
This generation coming up have never experienced any kind of hardships financially due to the insane monetary policies the we must swallow every day. I must ask, “What is going to happen when the reality of free money hits home?
The magnesium juniors have seen a nice bump recently and may continue their rise next week. This on news that Europe will run out of the metal by the end of November. I suppose there will be rationing, but then what? Stop manufacturing and layoff 1 million people? A quick search of magnesium juniors by speculators will lead to just 3 or so names – not much to choose from.
So True, Jetty.5 or 6 come to mind.American Manganese.Larry Reugh-Amy, TSX-V
Also XMG and WHY. Not investment advice.
Manganese is not the same as magnesium or does that matter? Close enough?
Just to let the gentlemen at korelin know the company updates work….. have officially put novo fpx and nomad on my buy list. Also liked hearing about their upcoming news flow and cash on hand….nice to know they don’t need any soon and have steady news towards the rest of the year
Wolfster – Thanks for that feedback on the company interviews. I have positions in all three of those myself, and it is nice following along with their newsflow. Cheers!
Every ASX gold, uranium, phosphate stock I’m following finished green Monday except CXM -8%.
New Dollar Week : https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2021/10/dollar-week_25.html
First line liquidity collected as mentioned last week $1806/$1810
I can’t say this enough but we need to break through and go get the much more important liquidity at $1832-$1835 and make a close above that trend line. It’s now or never and it needs to happen today/tomorrow or if day by Wednesday. We do that and the whole market structure changes..
Glen
Gold about to take off like a rocket….. JMO…
Super Inflation……..about to take off………….. OIL……. OIL …………..and OIL….
just like in the 70’s……. Oil caused the big spike…. and gold followed…. humm…
preaching to the choir glenfish
As you can see on this chart (which is not live), today’s action constitutes a breakout:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p88732215530&a=1043235982
As you can see on this weekly chart, gold is taking back a very important uptrend support-turned-resistance. When it closes a week at 1812, it will also take back the important Pivot level that will turn it bullish. There’s no need to worry about 1832-1835, gold will have sealed the deal before that level.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p42036878155&a=877923791
Kicked IAG off my watchlist. I know it’s doing okay but there’ll always be something screw up with that company. Kinross is another one, sold it and booted it out. Yamana also went out the door on the end of my boot. All these slow moving outfits being replaced with the likes of IPT.
Well you certainly have a pair my friend. Hope you are right about IPT!
EMOTF, Great Bear, Vizsla Silver, Nobel Resources, Labrador, Volcanic, Vizsla Copper, Copper Lake are doing well today…some up for $ impact, some up for %…but FWIW
Michael Boutros (10yr, DXY, Oil 25:30, Gold 45:40)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RRea-si1QQ
(NY Time 20211025.1315)
my work shows this impulse up in gold futures is overbought…i am not saying it is a false breakout…i am saying that once an unfavored instrument gets its first pop there will be a least profits taken…plus no volume follow through today, so i would say no panic buying…….it could gap up big on this low volume intr-day consolidation however..however also, the 200ema may offer Resistance on the first attempt(purple dash)…i am betting against a panic breakout…i will take the loss if a close above the swing high friday actually occurs……glta
The trend looks up…bust that purple!
Sorry for getting technical…
yes Larry, close but no cigar as they say. Let’s see if it at least manages a 1800+ hopefully by end of day with some volume.
Vizsla Copper just did a pop out of the blue. … Might be because there is copper in their name…
behind all these amazing profitable pops, what keeps me awake at night are the cycles that assert their effects seemingly out of no where to clobber dreams…right now gold in theory has put in a 9 year cycle top…and i have to consider all these rally’s as counter trend until that recent 8/1/20 high is left in the dust…sorry…it is my problem…i know past cycles could not possibly have any way to account for the current currency destruction policies…but that is one of my struggles in this game anyways…..
Larry, in real terms, gold priced in commodities, gold did put in a major top last year and is unlikely to make a new high for a very long time, if ever. That top happened exactly 9 years after the last major top for Gold vs Commodities (CRB) and probably marked the highest real price of gold in history.
However, priced in Marxist bankster fiat currency debt paper like the dollar and all of its derivatives, gold is going much higher. Luckily, it doesn’t need to shock us with huge moves in order for the gold miners to do so.
thanx for responding Matthew…..I have no need to counter respond because you know what is going on big time….After my nap I will reviewthe note several times…i do 0ne minute chart trading and my head gets groggy…no surgery required thank-you…lmao
Larry, aside from our very long term outlooks, I think you’ll agree that Gold:CRB is in for a big bounce that could last for many months and do wonders for the gold miners…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24CRB&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64393804128&a=1049822052
I am most concerned about a round of deflation, not that distant, when the asset bubble of equities gets hit……Whether gold outperforms general commodities, even after an initial hit I cannot predict….I can imagine everything initially getting hit but then yes, I agree with the charts message…If CRB is deflating during the asset deflation then I can see gold vastly outperforming…A nice chart again……Right here and now your beautiful chart is saying that when the ratio crosses the 5 period and then the 25 crosses that as well, the matter is settled…OKAY I do buy that for sure….I can also envision that actually occurring down the road is a back test of that charts message which would be a great way to enter gold miners….Matthew on some level it is all pointless…I will just follow as many signals as I can and do my best….But in summary, IF COVID VACCINE blow-back materializes as a significant enough demographic negative(I believe it will) that will only feed the ferociousness of a deflationary scare and NO ONE knows what shape that will take…We live in extreme times and I guess we can agree upon that diddy…..❓😜🔊…..I try to avoid stress…you?……trading is real good for that I hear…🤡🍔…I enjoy your feedback Matthew….tanks
The DR. Mercola analysis of Covid Jab blow-back is gaining momentum…Of course the extra death will be blamed on the un-vaccinated rather than the JAB…glta
https://www.thelibertybeacon.com/are-covid-jabs-responsible-for-rising-mortality-trends/
Larry, thanks for taking the time that response required. I have not been in agreement with the stock crash crowd and still am not. The covid crash of 2020 delivered the cleanout of a multi year bear market and the sentiment among a lot of widely respected analysts and observers reflects that and is still very negative. That 35% drop in the S&P500 was made more significant by its speed. Nothing rids a market of weak, scared hands like a big violent drop. Such plunges blow up the “slope of hope” “buy the dip” mentality in a way that takes slow declines years to accomplish.
What you mentioned about my chart above is true but it also has not been so oversold in decades and has fallen all the way back to multi year support (shaded green area). In addition, the charts for gold and the CRB separately also show favorable odds for gold to outperform commodities for awhile.
The April 2020 high for gold:crb represents massive deflationary ending action in my opinion. That blowoff top marked the end of a 40 year period that began with a “disinflationary” period and ended with outright deflation (as measured by gold since it was largely papered over sufficiently to become unrecognizable to almost everyone).
I actually do get my stress relief in the markets so I have always hated weekends! 🍻🤠
Yes, the criminal corporate media will absolutely try to blame the coming tidal wave of deaths on the unvaxxed and there will be no shortage of terrified idiots who believe them.
Listen you may definitely, as in high probability, be correct..The covid set-up, maybe got the bear out of the way for the equity illusion to continue and thus allow for the unavoidable gold reality….. Announcing that the markets could care less about XS death of humans…In fact some/many think that those that float the markets want the aka moron riff raff ‘their interpretation’ to take that hit….This is of course normal thinking if one has read Bertrand Russell and all the others you mention on site….so things may roll along nicely for gold…period…..
However, I stay totally open for the slaughter to cause a slaughter in gold and miners especially…..Even if for only a few months….I am rebuilding my townhouse from studs out…That is my escape…for now…Tanks for this discussion…I did buy that massive Bertrand Russell compilation at amazon and have read a few of the books…lmao…the guy was heavy and as you mentioned was in this gang that rules us….
Regards, Larry
As always, thank you for these presentations!
Dollar Final: https://tinyurl.com/4ev4sm7j
Bounce or Turn : Monday Beckons