Gold’s rebound this month and the importance of the downtrend line
Dave Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky joins me to outline the key levels for gold during this rebound. At this point it’s all about noting the downtrend line that as Dave sees it is right around the $1,800 level.
I think GDX is heading for at least 62 on this run and there is the potential for much more, but I need more info.
It is already up 20% since bottoming 6-7 weeks ago.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p01266758194&a=941347611
Next stop for GDX is probably 38+…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21401680283&a=938437763
SLV bullishly finished the day well above its upper Bollinger Band:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p68557039234&a=549735355
The same goes for silver itself:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p05352996192
So much for that bearish H&S pattern that I never took seriously:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26512663079&a=882291178
What would be the next big resistant point for gold going forward as getting through $1800 seems a forgone conclusion ?????…… and should have gotten more Galleon I think
1812 is a big deal so I’d like to see this week close above it (and I bet it will).
The 200 day moving average in the mid $1800’s would also be another potential resistance zone Gold will need to contend with, and ideally break above to show the recent uptrend has some legs.
Rick Rule – Economic Collapse is Horridly Fascinating: Prepare For Gold & Commodities Bull Market
I Love Prosperity w/ Jake Ducey – Apr 21, 2021
“In this video, we have Rick Rule. Rick is a legendary commodities, gold, silver and Uranium investor. He discusses his macroeconomic outlook on the economic system, why he says it’s horridly fascinating, and what you can do about it to prepare yourself financially.”
Hi Ex, The profit end of wealth production in the 1920’s was based on real industry producing real consumer goods that the public needed and wanted. Now it is based on What? Money keystroking! The investor in the conventional markets should ask himself where are the companies that produce real products that people want. The road to plenty is provided by the smoke from a factory chimney not social platforms like Facebook, Twitter, or Google. DT
Good points DT!
RR is another talking head. Not much of value or actionable in what he says.
Well there’s the pot calling the kettle black.
I like Rodney Dangerfield “”” I’m a gold Bull and I can’t get no respect”””
HG, you are the original Gold Bull. Yeah Man! DT
DT, the critics were right ! Holding paper weights versus Amazon.
Putin (128:50) “It will be quick and it will be tough.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWFhDcrzUas
this is a question for matthew.
im trying to understand what is a real move vs a fake move. as we know, it looks like gold gave us 2 intermediate consolidation cycles instead of 1. as we came out of the low, you were closely following GDX, GDXJ, XAU USD and you mentioned Newmont.my question is, as we are coming off the bottom, do you look for these stocks specifically or do you look at all the stocks and then, focus on the certain stocks which show a change (decline/increasing price)?
I look at the whole sector but with an emphasis on the senior gold miners since that’s where managed money and other big money focuses most and first and that’s what the indexes mostly contain: HUI, GDM (which the ETF GDX aims to duplicate), XAU (which is the oldest and has the most exposure to large silver miners).
Newmont has a deserved reputation as a bellwether probably because it is arguably the safest/highest quality company among its peers in addition to being the largest (by production as well as market cap).
The largest and best quality miners don’t always bottom ahead of the rest of the smaller miners or even ahead of gold but they do usually show the most strength first which translates to technical progress on the charts. Their leadership this year made more sense than at any other low in the last few decades due to the vast improvements to their operations and balance sheets. The biggest and best have never looked so good or been so strong BUT they all must replace shrinking reserves and that means we are going to see a lot of fantastic gains in the much smaller miners that have proven assets in the ground, especially the tiny cap “miners” that don’t mine anything at all, the explorers.
Newmont bottomed the last week of February:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p15741876737
The senior gold miners in general bottomed the following week, the first week of March:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p54452641461
Gold itself bottomed last, the second week of March:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p11656411258
Notice that gold “needed” to retest its low two weeks later but the gold miners in general (GDX) didn’t come close to doing the same and bellwether Newmont performed noticeably better still.
Matthew great comments and charts. Much appreciated.
Ex, thanks. Now I wonder if we might have a short term high, at least in the seniors. If tomorrow (end of week) is down, the odds will go up but the smaller miners might do some catching up instead of pulling back in unison. So far, GDXJ has not even dipped below yesterday’s low and GOEX looks better so that’s something in favor of continuing higher if it holds for today’s close.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p65412535644&a=939074417
I spoke too soon; GOEX has shattered yesterday’s low while GDXJ still has not, by a hair.
Of course, GOEX isn’t nearly as important since it is so thinly traded (volume under 9,000 shares so far while GDXJ has traded almost 3 million).
SIL is holding up better than GDXJ and it’s always a good sign when the silver shares beat the gold shares.
GLD touched its 200 day EMA for the first time in 9 weeks yesterday and today’s pullback so far has not completely filled yesterday’s gap.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p41235086468&a=942387702
Thank you for a clear explanation. I’m watching what is going on and really trying to learn and make sense of this environment. You comments have not gone un-noticed and i thankyou for taking the time to provide feedback.
You’re welcome.
Doc, thanks for mentioning Pure Gold yesterday. After studying it I bought my first block at the opening this morning, and it is up 6%. Avi Gilbert is bullish on the GDX to 55 and silver to the 40’s in 2022.