Adrian Day, Jeff Christian, and Mike Larson – Recap The Fed Meeting, Markets, and Commodities
On this Weekend’s Show we recap the market action after the Fed meeting.
Please keep the emails coming to Fleck@kereport.com. I love hearing from all of you regarding topics, guests, and your thoughts on companies I have featured on the show. As well as the companies you are all interested.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manager of the Euro Pacific Gold Fund kicks off the show with his assessment of the Fed meeting. We then discuss the selloff in the major gold stocks and royalty companies.
- Segment 3 – Extended Interview – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of the CPM Group joins me to provide insights on gold demand from central banks, generalist funds, and ETFs. To learn more about the CPM’s Gold Yearbook click here.
- Segment 4 – Mike Larson, Editor of The Safe Money Report wraps up the show by discussing the Fed’s comments and impacts on the US markets, yields, and inflation.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- TriStar Gold – An updated resource of 2.2 million oz, a PFS coming this summer, and over 20,000 meters of drilling ongoing
- Mountain Boy Minerals – Follow up on high grade sample results at the Theia and Southmore Projects and a look ahead to drilling this summer
- Gold Mountain Mining – Outlining the near term production and exploration potential at the Elk Project
- Metalla Royalty and Streaming – More information on 2 Royalty acquisitions with large companies as operators
- Vizsla Silver – 7 drill rigs on the Panuco Project and an update on the copper Spinco
- District Metals – A look into the drill program starting at the Tomtebo Project
Real vision is a subscription site only.
How Low Rates Are a Game-Changer for Asset Valuation (w/ Howard Marks & Joel Greenblatt)
Real Vision Finance – Mar 18, 2021
“Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, welcomes Joel Greenblatt, founder and co-CIO of Gotham Asset Management, for an exploration on whether market exuberance is rational or irrational. Marks contends that the current investor optimism is largely a man-made artifact of monetary policy in order to stave off an economic recession. Greenblatt argues that mega-cap tech stocks like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft are reasonably valued despite their remarkable price appreciation. Marks and Greenblatt agree that the Fed’s promise to keep rates low for many years is a true gamechanger in the valuation of assets, and they discuss whether high inflation could change this. Lastly, Marks and Greenblatt compare different styles of investing and share timeless lessons they have learned over the course of their careers in finance.”
And here is Episode 2…..61 minutes….With Grant Williams.
https://www.realvision.com/shows/gold/videos/gold-the-story-of-mans-6000-year-obsession-episode-2
🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽THE DEFLATIONARY SMACKDOWN🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽🔽
Read on ~ Although, everyone’s looking for hyperinflation, the following is the most likely outcome as the events unfold.
Let’s just hope, that when the everything bubble pops, the air comes out slowly. Regarding The Central Planners, looks very likely they will attempt to accomplish. Otherwise, all of us are going through the windshield. There won’t be a soft landing and help is not on the way. All these high speculation assets will burn. I refer to them as fake assets. Crypto currencies and then your high flying stocks with astronomical high valuations etc. This will spill over into all other markets. Major stock indices, housing, all real estate and almost every asset will be affected.
Although, all of us are looking for a hyperinflation type event. This could also easily turn into a historic monumental deflationary collapse.
Then, after this event has reached its peak in maximum selling and prices collapsing possibly 90% That’s not out of the question because we’re going to have a lack of liquidity and everyone’s going to be rushing for the exits with a financial system that is leveraged at heights we’ve never seen in history.
There’s a high probability the above is going to take place. The reason why I say this, because Central Planners will always remove the excesses and wealth distribution from the general masses. It’s the general masses, that cause inflation because they’re the ones who spend money and they don’t invest. Once that operation has been completed and they have capitulated assets at fire sale prices – housing, stocks and just about everything you can think of.
That’s when you’ll see hyperinflation and I don’t think you’ll see it until that operation has been completed. The general masses are never allowed to get rich and the above is very likely possibility and outcome. As a percentage, 80% chance.
This is how you should prepare. No debt, and every asset that you own should be debt free. Precious metals will also be liquidated during this monumental deflationary event and its highly likely. Although, you never know there’s an outside chance that precious metals will soar. Not immediately but probably shortly after deflation has taken its hold. Just speculation, because there’s no way to know.
HG, I have believed for a long time that we would see a deflationary collapse. The Hedge Funds are really scary. There are somewhere in the vicinity of 8,000-10,000 of these trusts. Many are run by dishonest promoters that don’t even understand the holdings they have, and of course they are honeycombed with bloated stocks, bitcoin. They are also invested in each other, intertwined so to speak, and when a few start to unravel they will all crash together. The crash will reveal the skullduggery that has been going on for many decades. DT
Hi DT…….The day that happens..( & it will ) It will crash the whole banking system.
Man, i hate to think what the world will be like , when it happens
IT, these days there are trillions of dollars worth of loans secured by collateral which after the crash will prove to have dropped to a fraction of it’s former value. DT
Thanks DT, very excellent observation and good point we can add that to the equation. Hedge funds are highly leveraged. Most likely an engineered event. The Central Planners prefer to clean out the excesses away from the general populace because they spend the money and then that causes the inflation so this is how it’s probably going to work out hyperinflation cannot begin until most people have capitulated all their assets. I’m prepared for any outcome. Social unrest is another factor and none of us are really prepared for it. That’s a whole nother subject.
The Central Planners goal is to keep the populace working because if everyone gets rich we won’t have anyone in the workforce. I left this out of my commentary however this is how they operate. Will they repeat this process ? and most likely yes.
Im not sure the problems of a banking crash will be as bad as some people think.
We always have bitcoin oops PMs, except far too few people actually have either to sustain society.
What I think will happen is another currency will be created that all people will have access to use, I think China is furthest along with that but the western governments are working on creating digital currencies now as well.
The governments could simply default on whatever debt they feel necessary and tell the people its time to go digital.
People would have no issue accepting that.
Thats my guess anyway.
Hi b…..You could very well be right..Nobody can really say what will happen if the system collapses….Although some have a good idea, just what could happen…Whatever , it wont be pleasent..imo.
BTW…As an after thought of what , You & i just wrote , perhaps the Bankers will front run-it , to lessen the damage to themselves.
b, you keep talking up digital currencies when they are so vulnerable to so many variables. I just find your thinking terribly flawed. DT
DT, China is already doing it.
Most of the wests transaction are digital now.
Yup there are flaws, but all fiat currencies return to their intrinsic value…zero.
I think thats kind of a flaw but they still work for hundreds of years, nothing says digital wont work for hundreds of years too.
I just think that we are going into space, we wont be taking gold/silver as currecny with us, its heavy, what will work is digits.
DT, I have a question…..
Suppose in a couple of years from now, the socialist/communist democrats see they are losing support of the people and turn towards tight Gestapo-like control. Confiscating wealth, taxing to the gills both corporations and people, and you decide you have had enough. Others have tried to revolt and been brutally crushed, so you decide to leave the country……
How do you do it?
Do you think crypto-currencies might be useful ?
Robot Doctors take over hospitals to reduce covid spread. Who needs doctors, lawyers, accountants, who needs humans, A.I. has already surpassed us in intelligence.
https://nypost.com/2021/03/19/mit-robot-doctors-see-patients-fight-spread-of-covid-19/
I don’t know how to say this other than that Canada should give Eric Sprott some recognition for his support of the mining industry. He has provided a lot of companies the chance to succeed when there was little hope for financing coming from the establishment. That is how capitalism should work and his vision should be recognized for what it is. DT
The only way that countries become successful is by allowing the businessman to take care of business without too many rules and regulations. America was king when the salesman and the advertising men were it’s agents and evangels. DT
Agreed DT. Uncle Eric deserves recognition for underpinning dozens and dozens of Jr mining companies need to finance when times were tough, and for being a force of good in the PM sector for many years now. His belief in the quality companies ability to continue to make discoveries, expand and develop resources, and move towards production or expand production will be greatly rewarded as the precious metals bull market continues to unfold.
I just thought i would drop this here . Make of it what you will.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-03-20/silver-bullion-supply-issues-worsen-2021
Don Durrett’s first seven top silver picks for 2021 (eight more to come)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414807-top-risk-reward-silver-miners-for-2021-part-1
Good read, thank you for posting! Don is sharp IMO
Nice piece from Don D. It’s always good to get his thoughts on quality companies in the PM sector.
On his first 7 Silver picks for 2021, I hold 4 of those: Alexco, Aurcana, Coeur, and Endeavour.
Looking forward to seeing where the Silver stocks may head in the next 2+ years, when pricing eventually gets into the $30’s, $40’s, and makes a run to take out the all time high of $49. The miners will move many multiples to the underlying metals price moves, and their margins are going to be fantastic as that plays out.
Nice interview… I especially liked the part about SWU Enrichment Price
Yes, Justin Huhn is a sharp guy, and he’s doing an excellent job of unpacking the opaque Uranium and Nuclear fuel cycle to the retail investing audience.
His points about the change in the sector since last December, is obvious to anyone that has followed the Uranium sector for any length of time, as we hadn’t seen across-the-board volumes like that in the U308 mining stocks in many years, and it is clearly smart money getting positioned for the upcoming squeeze in available inventories, and the bull market kicking it in overdrive in the years to come.
Some investors have been so disillusioned from the length of the nuclear winter bear market, that they’ve discarded the fundamental news that has been hitting month after month, as the pieces have been falling in place regarding supply destruction, the lack of contracting, new reactor builds, strategic inventory reviews, etc…. When Uranium bulls hit the despair stage in sentiment, convincing themselves through recency bias that none of the fundamental drivers mattered anymore, it was time to load up, and still is for that matter.
For the patient value investor, there was some opportunity cost in holding Uranium miners the last few years and doing nothing, but most of them have been more than rectified on the quality names as many are up 3x, 5, 10x off the lows last year, and even off the sector lows from 5 years back, when Uranium prices double-bottomed in the $17-$18 level in late 2016 and again in late 2017. For the active traders, there have been plenty of opportunities for many years to scalp profits on gains, since late 2016 to present, and magnify their returns.
Fast forward to today and the spot pricing is nearly double those $17 levels, up now around $28-$30; but the real story is that most Uranium stocks are up multiple-fold, and the returns in the miners of 300%, 500%, 1000% already crushed the returns most investors seek to obtain in their longer term investing strategies over a few year period of time. The good news for those that missed the recent easy money is that the larger bull market has so much further to run from here.
Justin’s point, that many commentators in the Uranium space have made as well, as that when the SWU enrichment prices started to bottom 2 years back, it was a clear indicator that there was an uptick from utility buyers further down the fuel cycle. We’ve discussed on here for years companies like Centrus Energy (LEU) involved in the processing, enriching, and sales of nuclear fuel, and the stock is up over 20 times from where it was trading back in late 2018. That is a clear indicator that demand is picking up, regardless of what is happening in the spot price sector.
It was also good that Tom & Justin touched briefly on small modular reactors (SMRs) as those could be a game changer in placing many more reactors all over the globe, without many of the safety concerns, massive capital outlays, or community pushback that the mega reactors garner.
As the energy needs of the planet and electrification of the developing world are only set to only grow higher, nuclear will continue to play a key role, and the quality uranium mining stocks still have epic runs to go on for many years to come.
Justin Huhn – Nuclear Fuel Shortage Has Begun: The Uranium Bull Market Will Break All Past Records
ILoveProsperity (w/ Jake Ducey) – Mar 20, 2021 #VIDEO
Hi Matthew, if you get a chance could you do a technical analysis of Sokoman Mineral Corp’s chart. (SIC-V) It would be much appreciated. DT
Hi DT, I hope you are already in that one because it is now quite overbought, especially short term. The weekly and monthly charts are also overbought but not nearly as much as the daily. However, probably because this is a bull market, it looks like it will go much higher. Why didn’t you tell me to buy when it was a nickel? Just kidding, of course.
This is not advice but I would consider pullbacks to be buying opportunities and the sharper the pullback the better. The chances are good that the weekly and monthly charts will become much more overbought before there is a top of any significance and the great-looking quarterly chart is very far from being overbought at all.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIC.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p09851926657&a=925427068
Hey Matthew, thanks! DT
Ideally, it will rise another 40-50% on its way to completing a fantastic cup-and-handle pattern. What you see on the following chart is not a prediction but would be a gift to new buyers if it happens (and the timeframe could be compressed to weeks rather than months):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIC.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p75157741011&a=925437327
Matthew – Good charts on Sokoman. I had positioned in it twice last year for profitable swing trades, but haven’t been in it since last October. It would be nice to see a good pullback in the stock again, and then I may put on a position in it again.
Hi Matthew,
Any thoughts on Brixton and CMC Metals here?
Cheers
Hi Marlborough, Brixton looks like it has put in a double bottom of intermediate term scale and should continue to improve as Wolfster opined. However, barring company-specific great news, I think it will continue to move with the sector rather than on its own.
I have a feeling it will finish this week higher.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56322576090&a=748708237
CMC Metals has been capped by the 50 day MA, the KAMA and possibly a pitchfork resistance for the last 3 weeks and still looks like it could go lower BUT that could change quickly and a close above .20 would do it. A day of sector-wide strength might be all it needs but for now I would just watch it.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMB.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p13252920546&a=925651559
Let me know if I charted the wrong CMC Metals. I know there is also a U.S. company by that name on the NYSE.
Thank you very much, Matthew. That was the CMC I was after. That’s a big help. Cheers!
Quick ramble as I’m renovating my own place as well now
Saw copper play gsp Resources get mentioned by someone late Friday night I believe..it’s one of my 3 favourite exploration plays for 2021 along with kodiak and the newly named black wolf. All 3 have tight share structure and are drilling to expand on existing finds.
I’m sure Matthew has a great chart for Brixton that will show that its consolidated nicely and looking like its ready to break back out into the .30’s and higher. I assume that’s the case cuz even a layman like me can see something is up
Battery techies the nano one did a financing this past week just below market value so it has set up a nice opportunity to get in before things pick up big time.
Hope Joe comes on here and makes one of his metals crashing posts. It’s up after one he posts. If he posted enough next week the downtrend could be broken..😉
I don’t know about the rest of you but the last 2 weeks have been a nonevent in my portfolio for the most part. Only my charging stations plays have seen any really movement.
Here’s hoping for a more eventful and GREEN week. Keep up the great work folks. Always reading. Cheers
Good thoughts and recap Wolfster. I’ll need to take a closer looks at GSP, and agree with you on Kodiak Copper. Yes, Brixton is looking set to jet. Interesting observation on Nano One, so thanks for highlighting that for folks here. Hilarious about the contrarian indicator of Joe’s “boom smash pain is coming” calls, where the metals rally afterwards…
As for the last 2 weeks, they’ve been overall green in my portfolio, and the move higher in the PM stocks recouped some of the portfolio dip that happened from late Feb through early March draw down, but overall I’m just 4% away from my portfolio all time highs from Feb 24th. There was also a portfolio spike up last Wednesday the 17th to within 1%+ of my all time highs, so overall, my perspective is that the markets have been doing pretty good. Granted it has really helped BIG TIME to be diversified across multiple sectors and keep rebalancing and rotating funds amongst them. Most of the comments to the contrary I’m seeing on multiple web forums, or twitter, or youtube, etc… are investors that are only invested in gold stocks, or too heavily weighted in them.
Wishing all the folks here at the KE Report good trading.
DT:
I feel things are different as the brief upswing is contrary to much of the rhetoric going on out there in the other world. However the recent move only moved me to the middle of my 8 month channel. After an initial 15 a 20% hit last summer, I have been in a downward channel running between -15% to about -25% down from July 2020 highs. I get alternating days of up and down and rotating days of individual stocks… until the last couple of weeks when I had 5 up days in a row. That was what was different. If my account were to increase about 10% from here, that would be a channel break out for me. I would then put my rope and pitchfork back in the garage and see what happens next.
Hi David, I got rather restless about four weeks ago, and began constantly trading watching for opportunity in the form of stock volume. I have a half dozen stocks like Group Ten that I will hold but the rest of them they get sold, traded, you name it I’m not interested in holding something that should move in the future. Since then my portfolio is up 20%. I feel that the bottom for precious metal stocks is in and we are slowly going to turn the ship around and head higher. I have been looking more at the copper market and of course battery tech stocks. I find weekends boring, I wonder why? You will never get me to join gambler’s anonymous, it is nice to have the time to do whatever I want, and I always found plenty to do that was interesting. DT
I found a new craft beer that I really like, it’s called “Lug Tread”, they sell it at specialty shops and tractor pulls. DT
It scores good at 85 on B.A.
Bottle looks high dollar. They have a paper cup option?
Ex, you make me laugh! LOL! DT
🙂
I was going to change my entire trading approach starting tomorrow. But, then you mentioned craft beers. I think I will do that instead.
+1 That sounds like a good plan DT & David. I’m also considering moving into the craft beer strategy this glorious afternoon, but want to get a good carpet layer meal in first. Cheers!
Big picture Gold, Oil, Stocks, Bonds
Smart Money Tracker – Gary S. – Mar 20, 2021 #TechnicalAnalysis
The Gold Forecast w/ Gary Wagner
Mar 19, 2021 #Charts #TechnicalAnalysis
Silver & Gold Price Update + Federal Reserve
iGold Advisor – Christopher Aaron – March 17, 20201 #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold Miners: The Technical Picture Improves
Mar 19, 2021 – Morris Hubbartt – Super Force #PreciousMetals #TechnicalAnalysis #Video
Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (03/19/2021)
#TechnicalAnalysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
Gareth Soloway: The Bottom is in for Gold
Palisades Radio – March 18, 2021
“Tom welcomes a new Guest Gareth Soloway President, CEO & Chief Market Strategist for InTheMoneyStocks. He explains what led him to become a trader after studying economics and why the markets enticed him. He discusses how it took him several years to build skills and come up with a methodology that worked for him.”
“InTheMoneyStocks use a system called price, pattern, and time methodology to evaluate stock technicals.”
Gary Wagner – End of gold’s pain? What Fed Chair’s ‘aggressive’ outlook means for markets
Kitco News – March 17, 2021
“The Federal Reserve has announced that the Fed Funds rate will remain low until at least 2023. Both gold and the equity markets rallied in response to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovishness, but can the turnaround in prices last? Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com analyzes the next key price levels.”
0:00 – Fed’s outlook on economy
4:15 – Inflation
7:27 – Yields
10:15 – Another Taper Tantrum?
11:30 – Yield curve control?
12:40 – Real yields
14:11 – Gold’s next key levels
Interest Rate Spike to Burst the Everything Bubble? | Nolan Watson & Rick Rule
“Nolan Watson, CEO of Sandstorm Gold Royalties, joins Rick Rule, Director on Sprott Asset Management, and Liberty and Finance host Dunagun Kaiser for a panel discussion on the unprecedented challenges and opportunities, as interest rates appear poised to spike and threaten to burst the “everything bubble” of stocks, bonds, & real estate.”
“Nolan and Rick also reveal why royalty companies are uniquely positioned to profit, no matter which direction the gold price moves during this volatile time, and to answer viewers’ questions about what comes next.”
Matt Geiger: Boom Years for Gold, Silver, Copper & Nickel – Top Stock Picks
Soar Financial – Mar 15, 2021
“A #SFLive Ep 146 with Matt Geiger of MJG Capital Fund out of San Francisco to discuss the Commodity Supercycle and boom in Gold, Silver, Copper & Nickel prices. What is he buying right now? ”
The World Will Need 10 Million Tonnes More Copper To Meet Demand
Bloomberg News | March 19, 2021
“The copper industry needs to spend upwards of $100 billion to close what could be an annual supply deficit of 4.7 million metric tons by 2030 as the clean power and transport sectors take off, according to estimates from CRU Group. The potential shortfall could reach 10 million tons if no mines get built, according to commodities trader Trafigura Group. Closing such a gap would require building the equivalent of eight projects the size of BHP Group’s giant Escondida in Chile, the world’s largest copper mine.”
“Increasing technical complexity and approval delays could lead to a dearth of shovel-ready projects in 2025-30,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Grant Sporre and Andrew Cosgrove wrote this week in a report.
https://www.mining.com/web/the-world-will-need-10-million-tonnes-more-copper-to-meet-demand/
Steve Penny (@SilverChartist) – Everything You Need to Know About Investing In Gold, Silver & Mining Stocks
ILoveProsperity (w/ Jake Ducey) – Mar 17, 2021 #VIDEO
Is The Gold & Silver Selloff Ending? (What To Know) – Steve Penny (@SilverChartist)
ILoveProsperity (w/ Jake Ducey) – Mar 19, 2021 #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis
I Subscribed to Steve Penny’s yearly newsletter a couple weeks ago..very reasonable.. $ 114 CdN.
Hi Ann,
Not sure why you subscribe to such hi premium when glen you the daily for free!
This is my pet peeve lol
glen
Lol.. Glen..great point…
Many thanks for your comment Ann!
KISS………… real simple…. 🙂
Where did you get the handle fugiousa?
Coin collecting in 95….. Fugio….
.First American Coin minted in the colonies….
Definitions: avoid, shun. flee, fly, run away. go into exile.
Fugio Cent…..
Fugio cent – Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org › wiki › Fugio_cent
The Fugio cent, also known as the Franklin cent, is the first official circulation coin of United States. Consisting of 0.36 oz (10 g) of copper, it was designed by Benjamin Franklin and minted only in 1787.
Also, connected with me concerning my historical past and religion….dating back to Jamestown ..1623
Not really sure just why this is your pet peeve. Please explain!
The Truth About Junior Mining
by @Goldfinger on 19 Mar 2021
Just another week with the idiots in charge.
Oh, just a note ON THE STREET reporting in the Midwest……..
I went shopping Sat., …I was offered $2.50 over spot for silver.
Long and the short……there is no silver on the street, the dealers are having
supply problems.
Jerry, I bet if you wore your buffalo horns and robe they’d sell you all the silver you want.
Ha,ha,……good one blazesb…..
Jeff Christians ! The cripple of New York Kaiser Soze ! Knows how to see a Bottom ! Bankers busters know !
Gold Update!
Nothing has changed and when i say that it literally means that lol! Free Advice, sound knowledge, and 20 plus years in the industry.
I learned from the professor who will respond to my post in 78.6 seconds fib retrace :).
My pattern remains intact…We are headed lower not because glen wants but because the algos and shorts needed it to.
Please listen to sound advice and not what gold bugs want to hear. Our time will come but as glen has mentioned we are entering extreme volatility and this shit is going to fly both ways bucking off gary, many off you, and others! My pattern is legit 100%
glen
Miners progressively going down today as PMs go progressively up. Kind of counter intuitive in the scheme of thing. You are right Glen…nothing but algo driven directional interference.
Thanks Glen…….for the SHTF REPORT……..always appreciated… 🙂
I added some Scorpio at .12 today along with HL and some big gold miners.
GDXJ:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p29743465331&a=713770028
I added GORO today as it did well in past moves. Traded one of my more speculative plays just because someone said over the weekend a common mistake is to have too many explorers. Of course, EX and most everyone else has said that including the guy in the Produce Market at the grocery store.
For those who might not have seen this.
GOLD ; The Story of Man’s 6000 Year Obsession – Episode 1..with Grant Williams.
54 minutes long….so if you have spare time over the weekend..have a look
https://www.realvision.com/shows/gold/videos/gold-the-story-of-mans-6000-year-obsession-episode-1