Comments on the Re-Opening trade balanced with a couple metals stocks that are of interest
On this Weekend’s Show I start off with Jesse Felder commenting on the broad market environment and the re-opening trade that quickly reversed US Markets back to all time highs (except for the NASDAQ). I then move into the commodity sector with Jayant Bhandari and Brian Leni who each introduce a company they thinks has good upside.
Please keep the emails coming! I love hearing from all of you and I’m doing my best to follow up with all the Companies you are sending me to look at. My email address is Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder of The Felder Report kicks off the show with a broad look at the re-opening trade in the markets and how the actual re-opening will filter into the economic data. We also discuss the Fed and commodities.
- Segment 3 – Jayant Bhandari is up next with his insights on Gold Mountain Mining (TSX.V:GMTN). Jayant shares his history with the project and what he likes about the Company.
- Segment 4 – Brian Leni, Founder of The Junior Stock Review shares a new recommendation he made to his subscribers, Canstar Resources (TSX.V:ROX – OTCQB:CSRNF). We discuss why this Company stood out as a Newfoundland exploration play.
Exclusive Company Updates This Week
- Awale Resources – Gold Recoveries over 95% at the Empire Gold Discovery on the Odienné Project
- Group Ten Metals – A Battery and Precious Metals Explorer focused on the Stillwater West Property in Montana
- Visionary Gold – A focus on in Wyoming at the Wolf Gold Project with high-grade gold showings
- Torq Resources – More information on the option agreement just signed on the Margarita Project in Chile
- Organto Foods – Answering your questions on cash flow margins and growth opportunities
- Diamond Standard – This Company is producing the world’s first and only regulator approved diamond commodity
- AUX Resources – Updates on the high-grade samples from the Independence and Silver Crown Properties
- VanGold Mining – More information on the El Cubo Project acquisition and near term production
- Great Bear Resources – Discussing the overall scale of the LP Fault Zone, Dixie Zone, and Hinge Zone
- Electric Royalties – Focused on energy metal royalties with a cash flowing royalty
- Awale Resources – Follow up on the best drill hole to date at the Empire Discovery at the Odienné Project
erdene resource{
oops, wrong url copied:
As many investors in the gold and mining markets know, there has been much discussion during the past 2 weeks about rising “real” interest rates and its inverse relationship to the gold price. (i.e. rising 10-year treasury yield results in decreasing gold price, if all other factors remain unchanged.)
Of course, the Fed’s actions (massive QE and the zero-bound Fed funds rate) interfere with true price discovery of treasury yields across the term of treasuries from 3 month to 30-years. And the CPI calculation to determine “real” interest rates is pure fantasy to such a degree the government is gaslighting everyday people into believing inflation is low while input commodities (oil, commodities), used cars and food soar in price. So, the BIG question becomes: how and when does the gold price break free of the paradigm of highly manipulated “real” interest rates and the CPI gaslighting lie?
Excelsior and others here have done a good job of answering that question. I thought I would share with everyone an extremely well thought-out article that answers that BIG question. And here it is:
https://goldswitzerland.com/the-feds-most-convenient-lie-a-cpi-charade/
And as I posted earlier in the week, the Fed which told everyone that it was unconcerned by rising long-term interest rates, has quietly begun Yield Curve Control as shown in this twitter post:
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1369140806066470912
Thanks Sach. Good thoughts and good links.
Great article Sach ….nice to see a real inflation rate number for once…..we’ve discussed here many times how our monthly budgets show that inflation is way higher than the manipulated one government gives us
Gold flew to a new all-time nominal high last year because it “knows” there’s nothing the Fed can do but inflate, even while the stock market is in a true bubble. This is the main reason gold will continue to catch a strong bid.
Properly measured negative real rates did not rescue gold while it corrected from its 2011 high because, 1.) it was in need of a big correction, and 2.) the stock market was perfectly ready (technically/fundamentally) to accept the newly created cash. The Dow/Gold ratio had fallen almost 90% between 1999 and 2011, i.e., the Dow fell 90% versus real money and therefore had very good reason to rally for a long time.
Between 2011 and 2018, the Dow had nearly quadrupled versus gold and hit bubble levels but a lot of that excess was neutralized as it corrected 50% vs gold between October 2018 and March 2020.
Following the March, ’20 crash, gold led the way higher and reached overbought status ahead of everything else because it has always been the “canary in the coal mine” and still is. Last August, gold reached its most overbought monthly reading in more than 12 years; not even the 2011 top was nearly as overbought. At the same time, the market was waking up to the fact that a 100% “risk-on” environment had returned so it was perfectly smart, logical and reasonable to sell the extremely overbought “risk-off” assets, gold and bonds, to buy almost anything else. Sure enough, we have since seen near vertical large moves almost everywhere we look. The new era of inflation has made quite an entrance yet many are needlessly worrying about blips in interest rates. Do these people really believe that gold’s correction from a once-in-12-years massively overbought reading following a mini blow-off has been unusual in any way?
Everything “risk-on” is now very overbought including UST yields so relief is coming to the gold space soon. There is and has been no threat to the young gold bull whatsoever and the interest rate boogieman is just noise.
Thanks for your keen insight into the demand situation for gold. I use to, repeat use to, believe in the technical overbought situation with gold, both in 2011 and 2020, until I discovered the following graph showing the gold price highly correlated to the inverted yield on 10-year TIPS U.S. treasuries:
Throughout the years including now, demand in gold has followed the fradulent calculation of real interest rates. IMHO, the important point is that gold alone was NEVER “overbought” but rather just correlating to real yields in the 10-year treasury. So one would have to conclude that the true overbought situation originated in 10-treasuries (reflected as lowest yields) and the gold price was just reflecting that situation.
So the question becomes how and when does Gold break free of this fraudulent paradigm. People much smarter than me are suggesting gold will break free of the paradigm when a true inflation rate of say 15% is so pervasively known by everyone, that the Fed will lose credibility when it still insists that inflation is under 3%. That could begin to happen later in 2021 as the inflation now seen in commodities, oil and food, work their way into the price of goods.
As a sidenote, the deflationary pressure of debt destruction (via large and small bankruptcies) is not in play this time around because the Fed has created zombie companies that can easily renew their junk, unservicable debt. And of course, in 2021 just like in 2006-2011, the ratings agencies are complicit in the scheme to give an investment-grade rating to truly junk debt.
Sach, thanks for the insightful and intelligent comment. Good to have you with us, my friend.
I don’t know how you can say that gold was never overbought when both technical and sentiment readings show that it routinely becomes overbought just like any other asset. It was massively overbought last summer based on factors that pertain only to its own trading behavior. The same goes for bonds. The correlation with inverted real yields exists most of the time because of the direct correlation with bonds, the other safe haven. The two safe havens rise and fall together for the same reasons. One does not cause the other to rise or fall and falling bonds are the reason for rising rates (rates can’t rise without bonds falling).
Inflation is the cause of rising gold as well as rising nominal interest rates. Perversely, inflation is also the ultimate reason for negative real rates (which are definitely understated, as you know).
People should be focused on the fact that the bond market is now at the end of a 40 year bull market and will be heading down for decades to come (nominal rates will rise for decades to come) and the Fed will see to it that real rates will remain negative most of the time if not all the time. Short term appearances to the contrary will remain noise.
Gold will hit levels most can’t fathom because the bond market will be seen for what it really is and, at the margin, fewer will bid for its return-free risk.
Good thread of thoughts guys on how inflation is calculated, how inflation-adjusted real rates factor in, how it correlates to gold pricing, and how the bonds and gold will likely start to decouple more, even though historically they trade as risk-off safe havens.
Sach – really good points about the bogus government inflation data based on how it is calculated today, which masks the true inflation.
I wasn’t quite following the comments on Gold having never been overbought before, and agree with Matthew in that regard, that it “routinely becomes overbought just like any other asset.” Last summer Gold and the Gold miners were very overbought on many metrics, and for the last 2 weeks they have been starting to look quite oversold.
Michael Pento: Spiking Bond Yields Could Crash Credit Markets
Palisades Gold Radio – March 10, 2021
” The premise is that you want to ride key asset bubbles higher while being cautious of potential volatility. The global economy is based on sand, and when the storm comes, the foundation is washed away. When bond yields start disrupting credit markets, you want to take a much less risky approach with your investments.”
Rates Are Heading Even Higher And That’s Bad News For Stocks
Mar. 12, 2021 – Mott Capital Management – Seeking Alpha
“This Is Not Warren Buffett Investing” – Major Upside in the Uranium Market – Warren Irwin
Cambridge House International – Mar 11, 2021
Markets(active): https://tinyurl.com/3fjs3ex8
Wednesday FOMC — Friday Quadruple Witching
Metals(active): https://tinyurl.com/h3sa9xb7
A ‘drifting rise’ by most. Critical week ahead !
Annual Silver use in the automotive industry is projected to reach 90 million ounces by 2025, today it is around 61 million ounces. Demand keeps ramping up for the precious metal. Electric vehicles consume about a 25% more than gas powered vehicles.
EV’s affect on future commodity prices is still being undervalued….uranium prices will have to rise as more sources of electricity will be needed.Not to mention how much electricity is needed to mine bitcoin too.
Copper use in EV’s is constantly mentioned but very few talk about all the infrastructure needed as well. Yes back to my charging station theme. Folks the amount of copper needed to build out these power grids and charging stations is being completely ignored.
Great posts DT and Wolfster. Yes, Silver, Copper, and other battery metals will continue to be in serious demand for the foreseeable future with EVs, the electrification of developing world, and to build out the infrastructure for all this sea change in transportation and all the other electronics now woven into people’s daily lives.
Great point Wolfster on the sources for power needed for all this electrification of the world, EVs, and crypto mining, and agreed that nuclear power will play an important role. I’ve done a few trades around core positions in my Uranium stocks, Copper stocks, Silver stocks, etc… lately, but am mostly holding the vast majority of positions for the longer term trends to continue playing out. Ever Upward!
Investing in Copper, Lithium and REE Stocks for the Energy Revolution – Electric Metals Summit
Cambridge House International – (03/14/2021)
Nice interview on heatherdale…..they are planning a name change that has excited as I consider it a sign that it was meant for me.😎……..black wolf.
Nice. I can envision the headline now…. “Wolfster makes a fortune in Black Wolf.”
Oops forgot the link
If Jesse’s bullish on gold………so am I. Thanks Cory.
It’s always great to get Jesse’s macro thoughts on various sectors, and it was encouraging to hear him getting more bullish on Gold again, like he was back in late 2018 and early 2019.
An interesting thought, Ex, provided a link to an interview with Bill Holter, Holter said that during The Weimar hyperinflation period The German Government tied property mortgages in Germany to the price of Gold so people couldn’t pay off their mortgages with hyperinflated currency and the banks didn’t become bagholders. That is probably what they will do here, nevertheless the public is ultimately on the hook for failed mortgages. DT
So a mortgage holder would be smart to have some physical gold, no?
Need a mortgage so you have a place to hide your gold.
In regard to your most excellent information, I have a fact floating around in my head. What is different from the Weimer situation is that the U.S. Federal Reserve supposedly now owns 50% of all residential mortgage paper. Probably will own most of it as this plays out. But I am at a loss to predict how the U.S. situation will eventually ryhme with the history of the Weimer Republic. I’ll leave it to others to guide me on that point.
Sach,
I too am at a loss on this one!
That doesn’t surprise me Big Al. DT
When listening to the Rick Rule postings the other day, I got the impression he was staying it was still a little early on the base metals/battery metals. I think the movement into EV vehicles has begun to pick up speed. I was looking at the New Car issue of Consumer Reports yesterday and it is apparent the auto makers are rushing to produce EV vehicles across all types of new cars, trucks and sport types. Tesla is going to be challenged from all. Maybe I misunderstood Mr Rule, but I see the pressure mounting on batteries and more effective battery development now.
Based on weekly closes, we have a breakout in the XAU priced in real money. XAU:GOLD just logged its highest weekly close in 4.5 years and highest daily close since last July. It is also on its first weekly MACD buy signal since last April…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p64732356738&a=906080893
Daily with bullish engulfing candle:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p17958683212&a=715711084
Gold stocks fell back to their September 2019 highs and are a bargain here in my book.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=D&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p16802123893&a=673663556
Those charts are encouraging going into Fed week. Let’s hope their games meet some resistance.
Bitcoin got up to new all times highs at $61,800 early Saturday morning, but has now pulled back to $59,855 Sunday afternoon. Crypto-craziness!
Marc Faber Likes These Mining Stocks
MiningStockEducation – Mar 10, 2021
0:00 Introduction
1:00 Commodity supercycle commencing?
3:43 Commodities with clear supply crunch?
5:30 $100 oil this year?
6:30 Uranium
7:30 Inflation, Deflation or Stagflation?
9:59 U.S. Stock market bubble?
12:46 Precious metals stocks
14:59 “Volatility will go up a lot”
16:44 Mining stocks Marc likes
I realize that Marc is brilliant, but when I interviewed him in the past he could not have been any more rude. I will pass on hims in the future.
Sorry to hear that Marc was rude to you Big Al. I just posted his thoughts as he is an interesting economic macro pundit, and is his own man – sizing up the current state of the markets untethered from the consensus views of the normal talking heads on the main stream financial outlets.
I would actually like to see The Price Of Gold go down from here so I could purchase a few more gold stocks that I like at great prices. Please don’t throw anymore beer bottles at me. LOL! DT
Any brand preferences…
Why would any sane person throw beer bottles at you Mosehead Man!
Good evening to the ker family!
Hope you are all doing well. I’ve been watching and listening carefully and let me tell you, some of you are going to get a whipping of hurt. It’s unfortunate when bias takes over and not reality.
Tonight unfortunately you won’t get a gold update! Maybe some of you could care less as I have been told. But others who know what I’m about and how I have been nailing calls, you are the ones who will be hurt from no comments.
Be safe, be careful this bear is ugly and not done! Glen delivers the real news. Jerry said it I would not bet against glen.
Jerry you went against me the other day just saying 😬🙏
You bet on a chart we are going up. Yikes
Glen
oops……I did…?…. I did not say when we were going up… 🙂
I never bet against DaMan Glen….
Hope all is well, keep coming back , I miss your calls.
BTW…………….did you listen to Gary S, on Feb 9, concerning his thoughts on the CUP and Handle….especially, the handle part.
Glen, the possibility of another bad plunge is real and it will be a fantastic time to buy if it happens but not every miner will make a new low.
So far so good on futures as green except two red candle hits on palladium. It is bouncing back but as usual the markets that deal in physical don’t mean much until it bits the fabricated paper markets of London and New York. But. It is always good to see a nice start in Asia.
Mathew, what did you think of the timeline give by Doc in our interview?
Al, I am significantly more bullish than about the rest of the year. Gold is close to a significant low if it hasn’t already seen it and it would be very unusual for gold to do little after such a low even if it were not in a bull market and this young gold bull is alive a very well.
I am with Matthew on the rest of the year…..JMO
Glen:
Thanks for the update. It signals caution…but remember over the last 8-10 years the miners have spent the vast majority of the time being beat into the ground. It is the bull periods that are the exception…and as a result the counter-intuitive surprise.
When BC was around 30,000, I thought it could hit 55-60,000 and 58,000 turned out to be the high for 3-4 weeks. Now I think it can hit 73,000+/-
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p75344542741&a=919217452
I bet John K., wishes he never heard of Bobby M., with his bitcoin calls….Bobby was asleep at the switch on that one….As well as a bunch of other, …Including me….
John was way ahead of everyone on BITCON…
HODL, was the right call, like Bix Weir said…..
Keep in mind that BC fell 85% after it hit almost 20,000 in 2017. So, the right thing to do at that time was to sell and sell it all. Those who understand charts could have reentered the trade at under 5,000 and should have exited again in 2019. Good entry setups last year happened near 10,000 and again near 12,000. Of course, true-believers could have bought the dip to 4,000 last March.
No one can say what’s cheap and what’s steep when it comes to BC so using the charts is the only way to trade the (no)thing. Popular delusions and the madness of crowds…
Valid point……..for the guys that know charts…..I would say that is true.
Bitcoin is pure speculation. Hyper greed on steroids. It’s time to get out the dart board.
Thanks for the kind words Jerry. Bob M is one of my favorite people in this world.
Bob M educated many of us on this blog. I for one.
Hello John…..
You are welcome……
I would have to agree with you concerning Bobby, and educating a lot of people.
Dear John. I agree with you about Bob.
I read something the other day (possibly no credibility) , that estimated Max Keiser’s net worth at $250 million because of his bitcoin investments. Could be way off base, but he was pumping bitcoin since his show in France years ago. Can’t say he made a mistake no matter his net worth as it has to be more than average.
I have no time for Keiser but I’d be surprised if he’s worth so little considering his involvement with BC.
You are probably right
Big things are happening in the gold space while most remain oblivious. COT positioning and open interest have become fantastically bullish and there’s little doubt that Basel 3 implementation is a large part of the reason. Of course this does not mean that gold has (or has not) seen its low. It could take off from here as it appears ready to or it could be in for a smash-and-grab like we’ve never seen before. This is once-in-a-lifetime stuff happening that most people never saw coming or even thought impossible.
Which possibility would be likely from a corrupt set of market managers? Think they would rather receive than give?
“Cal Everett, President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Liberty Gold Corp. (TSX: LGD) and Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights discuss the company’s flagship projects, the Black Pine in Idaho and Goldstrike in Utah, both past- producing open-pit mines at the Virtual Metals Investor Forum on March 4-5, 2021.”
High Grade ⚒🌎 @EconomicAlpha · Mar 12 on Twitter:
“New additions to $GDXJ”
Skeena Resources $SKE.TO
Discovery Metals $DSV.V
Marathon Gold $MOZ.TO
Liberty Gold http://LGD.TO
Maverix Metals $MMX.TO
Jaguar Mining $JAG.TO
Galiano Gold http://GAU.TO
Silver Mines Ltd
Caledonia Mining
High Grade ⚒🌎 @EconomicAlpha · Mar 12 on Twitter:
“New additions to $GDXJ”
Skeena Resources $SKE.TO
Discovery Metals $DSV.V
Marathon Gold $MOZ.TO
Liberty Gold http://LGD.TO
Maverix Metals $MMX.TO
Jaguar Mining $JAG.TO
Galiano Gold http://GAU.TO
Silver Mines Ltd
Caledonia Mining
https://twitter.com/economicalpha/status/1370497590542864384?s=21
High Grade @EconomicAlpha · Mar 12 on Twitter:
“New additions to $GDXJ”
Skeena Resources $SKE.TO
Discovery Metals $DSV.V
Marathon Gold $MOZ.TO
Liberty Gold http://LGD.TO
Maverix Metals $MMX.TO
Jaguar Mining $JAG.TO
Galiano Gold http://GAU.TO
Silver Mines Ltd
Caledonia Mining
https://twitter.com/economicalpha/status/1370497590542864384?s=21
High Grade @EconomicAlpha · Mar 12 on Twitter:
“New additions to $GDXJ”
Skeena Resources $SKE.TO
Discovery Metals $DSV.V
Marathon Gold $MOZ.TO
Liberty Gold http://LGD.TO
Maverix Metals $MMX.TO
Jaguar Mining $JAG.TO
Galiano Gold $GAU.TO
Silver Mines Ltd $SVL.AX
Caledonia Mining $CAL.TO
https://twitter.com/economicalpha/status/1370497590542864384?s=21
High Grade @EconomicAlpha · Mar 12 on Twitter:
“New additions to $GDXJ”
Skeena Resources $SKE.TO
Discovery Metals $DSV.V
Marathon Gold $MOZ.TO
Liberty Gold $LGD.TO
Maverix Metals $MMX.TO
Jaguar Mining $JAG.TO
Galiano Gold $GAU.TO
Silver Mines Ltd $SVL.AX
Caledonia Mining $CAL.TO
https://twitter.com/economicalpha/status/1370497590542864384?s=21
Nice. Out of that list I hold shares in Discovery Metals, Liberty Gold, Maverix Metals, Jaguar Mining, and Galiano Gold.
Only Discovery but added recently. Explains why it was doing better than most.
Yes, I’d expect to keep seeing higher volume in some of these as they get added to the index.
Sorry about the repeating posts. I’m not sure what happened here, and was having trouble submitting that post, because I didn’t realize @EconomicAlpha has embedded other links in his Twitter post. I tried it a few times, thinking it wasn’t working and then realized there were other links embedded and replaced them with their associated tickers, but didn’t think any of the other ones worked. Then eventually they all came through it seems. Strange…
REPETITION IS THE MOTHER OF INVENTION
+1
EVOLUTION BUYING BATTLE NORTH GOLD
Interesting. Well, there’s another acquisition, right on the heals of the news that GT Gold is getting scooped up by Newmont in a takeover bid.
Looks like M&A is heating up again, while PM sector is depressed, and when companies can announce they are making smart deals a low prices instead of at all time highs like last summer.
So which company will be the next one to get nabbed?
While on the subject of acquisitions in the PM mining space, it should also be mentioned the First Majestic just bought Eric Sprott’s gold mine for a pretty penny, lowering their exposure to Silver and Mexico, while increasing their gold exposure, and for the first time, diversifying their jurisdiction risk beyond Mexico and into Nevada on this pick up.
________________________________________
(AG) (FR) First Majestic Silver: Diversifying Into A Tier-1 Jurisdiction With Jerritt Canyon
Mar. 14, 2021 – T.D. – Seeking Alpha
“While high-grade assets in Tier-1 jurisdictions typically receive a premium in takeover, this assumes they are also high-margin, but Jerritt Canyon is anything but a high-margin mine.”
“So, while this deal helps First Majestic diversify into gold and into a safer jurisdiction from its Mexico focus, it looks like the team paid a lofty price relative to previous acquisitions in the sector.”
As an (ELY) Ely Gold Royalties shareholder, I’m happy about First Majestic becoming the operator, as it will derisk and likely improve ELY’s net smelter royalty on this mine.
I’m not sure how wise this is for First Majestic. They’re one of my largest holdings but I like the fact they’re a pure play silver producer.
I’m sure Keith and crew at First Majestic have a plan for optimizing this Jerritt Canyon mine, but they are going from 70%+ silver production exposure down to 52% Silver ratio in their production mix. That is still higher than most of their peers SSR Mining, Pan American, Hecla, Coeur, Hochschild, etc… as they are in the 30-40% ratio of Silver in their production mix. As a result First Majestic is still a good call option on higher Silver prices.
Producers making lots of cash at the moment and looking for new supplies
Good for juniors that have the right gold deposits
Both deals are all cash deals with 50%+ premium
+50
(ANX) (ANXGF) Anaconda Mining: Higher Gold Price Boosts Profitability In FY2020
Mar. 11, 2021 – T.D. – Seeking Alpha
S&P Dow Jones Indices Announces Changes to the S&P/TSX Composite Index
by @newswire on 12 Mar 2021
Added – Denison Mines Corp (TSX:DML)
Added – Endeavour Silver Corp (TSX:EDR)
Added – Lithium Americas Corp. (TSX:LAC)
Added – NexGen Energy Ltd. (TSX:NXE)
Added – Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd (TSX:TRQ)
Deleted – Lundin Gold Inc. (TSX:LUG)
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/sp-dow-jones-indices-announces-changes-to-the-sptsx-49a91
Denison had a good day last Friday also.
You still up David? I thought I was the only one that doesn’t sleep. 🙂
Yes, Denison has been on a roll lately, and I wonder if it being one of the additions to the S&P/TSX Composite has been responsible for some of the heavy accumulation.
Trouble sleeping plus today is prep day for colonoscopy tomorrow. I want to eat but I think they will find out. Trying to define clear liquid for rest of day. Hope it will be a good day today as may have trouble sitting in front of screen for extended periods. I think things will come out ok in the end.
Noticed Discovery has good drill results reported this AM to go with GDXJ listing.
Hoping everything works out OK..and all the best.. tomorrow
Thanks. Can’t look back…ever upward.
That doesn’t sound like much fun David. Wishing you well and prosperity for your health.
Thanks. Miners having a good day today but I am hallucinating about a cheese burger.
Got to love not seeing your posts. 🙄…. here’s a nice interview on heatherdale. I think it’s destiny that I found this play. They plan to change their name to black Wolf … need I say more. Lol https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9VjVSVqSKk4
Nice. I can envision the headline now…. “Wolfster makes a fortune in Black Wolf.”
Miners are up strong today, despite PM prices being fairly quiet. Here’s to hoping that the miners are leading and indicating. I’d like to see GDX hitting closing above 34 this week, and then depending on the strength of any pullback, could we have seen the bottom?
Agreed Aetas Aurea. It has been nice to see the miners doing quite well to kick off a week that has so much central bank babble headed our way. Normally there is still sell-off leading into these meetings, but hey we still have Tues & Wed for that to play out. I’m trimming back a little on some profitable positions today, just in case we see a drawdown in the middle of this week. Overall though I’m just holding in most positions and it’s nice to see the green on the screen to start the week.
I know I should be trimming profitable miners and taking some risk off the table but I’m tending towards my laggards wondering what to do with them. I have some real poor performers – Kootenay, Canada Silver Cobalt Works and Aurcana. They’re really stinking my portfolio on a green day. So I’m trying to work out whether to cut my losses with them and move to better options, or whether they’ve still got the potential to outperform.
I have Kootenay and Canada Gold both down today also. I still gave the alternating day thing going on and I have to see if they are in to that mode still this week. I am thinking on Canada Gold I need to see another PR. On Kootenay they nay be just lagging as Santacruz has been dragging until today. I have Discovery back in the red today after good drill results and moving into the GDXJ. I am thinking it is not its day in the rotation. All could finish strong or the whole bunch could get trashed today. Maybe I should not have said anything but you may want to wait and see what Fed Week does to them all.
Aetas Aurea -Different stocks run on different days, and I also hold Kootenay Silver and Aurcana Silver and still feel both are good value at present valuations, and have noticed them running on other days when other names were pulling back. I don’t own Canada Silver Cobalt, and know they’ve put out a few good drill holes, but am not as confident in them as the other 2 aforementioned names.
Regardless, 1 day doesn’t make a market, but with most pm stocks up in the green today, the ones in red do stand out more, and are worth further scrutiny.
I guess I am closer to Ex distribution and at the moment +3.44. As I wrote Discovery popped up from red to +2.83%…which is now 8th best. Not sure if I see a theme. However Novo was my best 2 days running until it approached the close.
Kootenay and Canada Gold moved up a little and +3.53% at close for all. ButI think it is 4th straight day of green. That could be a bad omen for the rest of Fed Week.
Yes, overall it was a positive day in the markets, and in my portfolio there were some nice double-digit gainers like (NAM) New Age Metals up 24.1%, (UUUU) Energy Fuels up 21.1%, (GG) Galane Gold up 14.3%, (DNN) Denison up 14.04%, (BRC) Blackrock Gold up 13.9%, (KUYA) Kuya Silver up 12.7%, (ELY) Ely Gold up 10.9%, (ROXG) Roxgold up 10.5%, (URG) Ur-Energy up 10.25%, (LIO) Lion One up 10%, and I’ll round up (REX) Orex Minerals up 9.7%, (JAG) Jaguar up 9.6%, and (GSV) Gold Standard Ventures up 9.5%.
I have a 60/40 split with positive dominating. However my bottom performers today are Group Ten, Banyan, Nulegacy, Metallic, Bayhorse, Palladium One and Kootenay. So…that doesn’t tell me anything about Kootenay ir Canada Gold.
I’m seeing more 2/3 green 1/3 red day in my portfolio and overall up 3.4% which is outpacing the ETFs (they are only up 1.7%-2.7% today) so I’ll take it.
Thanks David and Ex. It’s been frustrating to watch them over the last 3 months. They’re smaller positions in the portfolio, but against my juniors and my seniors, they’re firing badly. But I take on board what you say and will give them another week to watch.
If silver prices rise, then all boats should rise. Maybe that’s what I need to hang my hat on and wait for some more news from the respective companies.
I have been waiting for some up days to start separating mine as to good and bad…I have found some good performers like Great Bear, Novo, Silver Viper, Ely, Denison, Discovery, Anaconda, Summa New Age, and Vangold. But, I don’t have a clear picture about the rest.
Aetas Aurea – Agreed, that all boats will rise with the tide, but still one wants to seek out the higher beta stocks in the sector. The advantage to actively managing a portfolio of stocks is to be able to scalp a little off the companies that have really outpaced the rest, and look for undervalued companies that one believe will outpace the rest at various points. Ideally they don’t all go up at exactly the same time, or it is much harder to rotate and rebalance. I like it when a stock gets way ahead of itself and I can trim it back, and then fortify a position that hasn’t run as much but undoubtedly will and play catch up, and then when it does, it can be scalped and rotated into good names that peaked and have pulled back…. rinse and repeat.
As for Aurcana, they had periods over the last few years where they were outpacing silver developers, but then lately have been laggards. It is odd considering how close they are getting to moving into production, how much exploration potential they have on all the other veins around their Revenue-Virginius mine, and they still have the permitted/build Shafter mine in Texas as an added kicker with Silver in the mid $20s again. You’d think the highest grade undeveloped Silver mine on the planet, located in the US would fetch a much higher premium, than mines in Mexico or South America, and I believe that eventually they will. Their margins are simply fantastic, but maybe the market wants to see them prove that they can indeed make it into profitable production, and that they can keep hitting on exploration to show there is plenty of room to upsize their resources.
As for Kootenay, they have well defined ounces in the ground, some solid JVs, and now a few high-grade areas developing, so they’re more an optionality play on rising prices, like Discovery or Southern Silver. Jim McDonald is a solid CEO and I have confidence in their future with him at their helm.
Aurcana is looking attractive to me now that you mention it. It looks like it hit around $8 in 2010.
Sold 60% of ABBRF @.4846
Energy Fuels (UUUU) up 22% again today, so I took a few chips off the table, and will buy them right back if we see any weakness where it pulls back down over the next few days.
It should be at MaxSat(7) tomorrow morning,
and the whole sector by the New York close.
I see both PETER Grandich & Rick Rule both suggesting uranium had gotten a bit ahead of itself. My price target is still $8.12. One of my lesser $ size holdings( UUUU). Still at near 20% cash, waiting on FOMC SABOTAGE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2UuMy4KecM