Markets and Metals -Topics this week include Inflation, a Commodities Super Cycle, and Battery Metal Stocks
On this weekend’s show I take a step back from the precious metals (I covered PMs a lot during the week) and discuss big picture themes that are gaining attentions. Since inflation was a key topic in 2020 which has continued into this year. I then have a discussion on the possibility of a commodity super cycle either underway or about to start. I wrap up the show with a look into the battery and EV metal markets and drive down in to what to be aware of in the smaller stocks.
I hope you all enjoy this weekend’s show. Be sure to check out all the Daily Editorials from the past week and please keep the emails coming. I love hearing from all of you. My email address is Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakly Advisory Group kicks off the show with an extended discussion on inflation and yields. Peter shares where he thinks inflation is heading this year and why the bond market will be critical to watch as long dated yields continue to rise. Click here to visit Peter’s blog – The Boock Report.
- Segment 3 – Marc Chanlder, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx is next up with his thoughts on a commodity super cycle. Marc is more a currency analyst so we relate moves in the currency markets to outline where he sees this all progressing. Click here to visit Marc’s blog – Marc To Market.
- Segment 4 – Steve Todoruk, Investment Executive and Geologist at Sprott Global Resource Investments wraps up the show by focusing on the battery (and EV) metals in terms of smaller cap stocks. This sector has been screaming higher but it’s important to understand a couple key aspects to look for in stocks. If you have any company questions for Steve he has offered his email address so you can contact him – STodoruk@sprottglobal.com.
Exclusive Company Interview and Updates This Week
- A Broad introduction to the Metallic Group of Companies – Metallic Minerals, Group Ten Metals, and Granite Creek Copper
- Enduro Metals – Follow up on the drill results today and the comment of “Evidence Mounting for a Large-Scale Gold System
- GR Silver Mining – Recapping the recent high grade silver and gold drill results at the Plomosas Project
- AUX Resources – High Grade Gold Drill Results From the Georgia Project in the Golden Triangle
- Novo Resources – Beatons Creek Production Update and Answering Your Wide Ranging Questions
- AbraPlata Resource – recapping the drilling 2020 and the ongoing exploration plans for 2021
- A new contributor to the site – Doc Jones shares his thoughts on Tarachi Gold
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+1 👍👍
+1
Up Up and Away !
Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (02/12/2021)
#TechnicalAnalysis #Gold #Silver #Copper #Platinum
Bullish Commodities & Bitcoin #TechnicalAnalysis
Feb 12, 2021 – Morris Hubbartt – Super Force #PreciousMetals #Video
Gold update: Is the price suppression about to break
SmartMoneyTracker – G.S. – Feb 10, 2021
Steve Penny: The Bottom is In for Metals
Palisades Gold Radio – Feb 9, 2021 #TechnicalAnalysis
Try posting it here as I have posted this twice below on its own and it’s never shown up.
Bitcoin etf
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/north-america-s-first-bitcoin-etf-gets-green-light-in-canada-1.1562917
Gold And Silver Still Have A Long Way To Go – Peter Hug
Feb 12, 2021 – Kitco News
“The current bull market cycle in the metals is far from over, and the Federal Reserve would need to reverse course on monetary policy before we see a top in prices, said Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals.”
A Nebulous Relationship with Gold and Markets: Featuring Tavi Costa and Don Durrett
2021-02-12 – Mining Stock Daily – Trevor Hall
“In our last episode of the week I connect with Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to get his analysis not only on gold and junior miners, but in the commodities space as well. Are we in the beginning of a commodity super-cycle? And where does this leave gold and silver when it comes to the major market moves higher?”
“We then turn to Don Durrett to get his feel on what gold needs to do in the event of a major market correction. Don also gives his thoughts on what could give silver that next leg up where the silver squeeze failed.”
Top Gold Pick & Silver Stock Pick – David Erfle
Soar Financial – Feb 12, 2021
“Lively and entertaining fireside chat with David Erfle, the Junior Miner Junky. We discuss his top gold pick and silver picks as well as his #1 take-over target.”
It is a toss-up which direction things are going to break coming out of this Gold consolidation. Personally, I’m still leaning towards the November low of $1767.20 in Gold holding, and that the yellow metal moves higher from here. However, admittedly, the gold’s action has been a great deal weaker lately. Back in mid-January, when things started correcting hard, it was mentioned that we don’t want to see that November low break. So far the level has held, but if it breaks, that would get more ugly and do much more chart damage for the medium term.
Here is a chart I posted 3 weeks ago and 2 weeks ago showing that Gold has been channeling sideways between the 55 day EMA and the 233 day EMA, in a downward sloping fashion, but the range has been steadily narrowing.
It would have been ideal to see the 233 day EMA hold as support, but recently gold dipped below it making a “higher low” of $1784.60. Even though it was bearish to break the 233 day EMA support, it was short-lived, and putting in that higher low is actually constructive, as long as it holds.
Like Jordan Roy-Bryrne mentioned earlier this week, it looks like that was the bottom of this recent corrective move, but we’ll need more data over the next few weeks to confirm if that was so.
Here’s the Gold chart showing those EMAs and both the recent lows.
Current Bellwether
From the all-time-low of .04 in August 2019, Eskay Mining has continually gone to new all-time-highs — without once breaking a previous low — nine times (.11, .27, .30, .41, .70, .94, 1.80, 2.17, 2.23) into the recent high of 2.47.
This is particularly powerful because, while most PM miners may now be retracing, on Friday ESKYF established a Maximum Saturation Down of 7/7 (strongest possible) while remaining 20 cents above 1.66, its previous low.
Note the breakaway gaps: https://postimg.cc/VdkyJ8xY
Listened to Segment 4 on battery metals
Steve says the same about lithium plays as Rick: „Take the big ones“
I had a look on the big three and compared them with the smaller ones
1 Year performance
The two big ones, SQM and Albermale had 150% gains
But the smaller plays had gains between 500-1200%
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SQM,ALB,LTHM,LAC,SLL.V,NLC.V,PLL,ETMC.V&n=200&O=011000
I like big and small plays, recently I purchased shares in Nouveau Monde Graphite, it is already up 400% in 3 months but I am interested in holding it for the longer term as they are building the biggest Graphite mine in North America. They are the future which makes them attractive as a hold. The smaller plays are speculative fun that I hope to profit from in the short term and use any winnings for my longer term plays. DT
That’s awesome DT, I’m happy for you. Smart investing!
Hi Canuckski, Quebec is absolutely one of the best jurisdictions in the World for investing. A lot of commodities needed for the green revolution are found in Canada, the car industry sees this and are opening new plants in Canada. DT
Graphite is an interesting battery metal. Even more special than nickel
We should ask ex what graphite plays he has -:)
400% in 3 months was really a good run
Thomas, Ex just purchased a new metal detector, I hope he has time for us earthlings, no pun intended! LOL! DT
DT – We came to coexist with our human friends. We dig in peace. 😉
Hi Ex, man must learn to co-exist, now that we are moving to other Worlds, we must earn our rights to the stars and forget our rampant aggressiveness. KLAATU! DT!
Well, I agree with you DT, and we want to welcome you humans to the larger communities amongst the stars, but just be cautious, as there are power broker cabals of aliens just like there are power broker cabals of humans. Some things never change.
But…. at least you humans now have Space Force, and a Space Force $2 bill. 🙂
He is looking for graphite and battery metals in his backyard you mean? 😀
I am sure he has already some graphite plays in his portfolio
Thomas, that is such an English name, it’s time for me to get some exercise and stay out of trouble, I hope you are enjoying life, these might be the worst times but they can also be the best of times for investors. Uncertainty creates opportunity, like The French say, nest’ pas! DT
Hi Thomas. I had mentioned earlier in the week when DT brought up Nouveau Monde, that used to follow that one closely, but haven’t owned any graphite plays in a few years. Some others that I used to own that have really run higher are Lomiko, Northern Graphite, and Leading Edge Materials.
Syrah Resources is an Aussie producer that comes to mind. Ceylon Graphite is another interesting company to consider. There are a lot of folks over at ceo.ca that are animated by Gratomic Inc.
Here’s my whole Graphite watchlist if you want to dig through it and see anything compelling:
________________________________________
Symbol / #Graphite Stocks
$AXE.AX Archer Materials Limited
$BSM.AX Bass Metals Limited
$BAT.AX Battery Minerals Ltd.
$BKR Berkwood Resources Ltd.
$BEM.AX BlackEarth Minerals
$BKT.AX Black Rock Mining
$BUX.AX Buxton Resources Limited
$CAZ.AX Cazaly Resources Ltd
$CCB Canada Carbon Inc.
$CJC Canada Strategic Metals Inc.
$CYL Ceylon Graphite Corp
$CRL.AX Comet Resources Ltd
$CGN.AX Crater Gold Mining
$DNI DNI Metals Inc
$EGA Eagle Graphite Incorporated
$EGR.AX Ecograf Ltd
$ERA Elcora Advanced Materials Corp.
$FMS Focus Graphite Inc.
$LION Global Li-Ion Graphite Corp.
$GEM Goldcore Resources
$GGG Graphene 3D Lab Inc.
$GRAPHITE.NS Graphite India Limited
$GPH Graphite One Resources Inc.
$GRAT Gratomic Inc.
$GLK Great Lakes Graphite Inc.
$HXG.AX Hexagon Resources Limited
$LEM Leading Edge Materials Corp.
$LMG Lincoln Mining Corporation
$LMR Lomiko Metals Inc.
$MNS.AX Magnis Resources Limited
$LLG Mason Graphite Inc.
$MLS.AX Metal Australia Ltd
$MRC.AX Mineral Commodities Ltd
$GRA NanoXplore Inc
$NEXT NextSource Materials Inc.
$NGC Northern Graphite Corporation
$NOU Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc.
$NVX.AX Novonix Ltd
$VLQCF Quantum Graphite
$SRG SRG Graphite
$SYR.AX Syrah Resources Ltd
$TLG.AX Talga Resources Limited
$VRC.AX Volt Resources Limited
$WKT.AX Walkabout Resources
$ZEN Zenyatta Ventures Ltd
I was sure that you have a list. I find graphite even more difficult to play than nickel
Haven‘t heart about none of them. Here an article that mentions Graphite One
https://www.miningnewsnorth.com/page/ev-batteries-to-drive-9x-graphite-growth/5754.html
Thanks Thomas, as I’m still getting back up to speed on Graphite, and haven’t really looked at Graphite One in any big way.
It’s just one of those things where one can’t be invested in everything, and I considered that with Batteries still a major theme from 2020 moving into 2021 that I should have a handful of Graphite plays, but I opted for more Lithium, Copper, Nickel/PGM plays instead. I’m now kicking myself for not having pulled the trigger on a few I had mentioned up above before the list, but if we get a “sell everything” smashdown later in the year across most sectors, then I intend to go looking for deals in the Graphite sector at that time, and will likely build back up my Lithium positions during that same time. Right now they’ve all run really high and are getting a bit frothy.
P.S. – I posted some Electric Vehicle and E-mobility ETFs down below in a response to BDC that you may also appreciate.
STATS: (MaxSat) Turns*
Gold Miners
– High: (5.25) Wednesday (10 Feb)
– Low: Friday (19 Feb)
Silver Miners
– High: (0.5) Monday (1 Feb)
– Low: Thursday (18 Feb)
Uranium Miners
– High: (5.5) Thursday (11 Feb)
– Low: Friday (19 Feb)
* Earliest Turns:
Plus/Minus One Day
( 20% / 45% / 35% )
BDC,
If that current system and numbers above is in relation to this week coming then your system is bang on and following my trend..
Keep up the great work!
Thanks! … more to come ….
I am still working on presentation.
Please take this into account.
Wolf,
Very interesting regarding the etf that follows Bitcoin.. thanks for this info. I think what prevents me from playing that sector is the extreme volatility. At my age I prefer steady as she goes lol 😆
But who knows.. thank you and hope all your lots and investments are making money or soon to be..
Glen
Thanks Glen. Keep up the gold updates. Appreciate them
As far as steady as she goes investments with its recent volatility do the PM’s still qualify???
Haha,
Great point! Let me rephrase, I feel better in something that I have much more experience in then Bitcoin..
I do believe it’s a matter of time before all is controlled by digital way including us lol.. So do yourself a favor and buy a farm and go off the grid :)..
Cheers amigo
And as expected kodiak drill results
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/kodiak-drills-213-m-of-065-copper-and-037-gt-gold
Trying again as some of posts never show up
As expected kodiak drill results
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/kodiak-drills-213-m-of-065-copper-and-037-gt-gold
Trying to post the kodiak drill results but my posts not showing up. They are out as expected
Try this one more time. This time I won’t use bnn Bloomberg as the source if that’s the problem
Bitcoin etf….. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/12/2174792/0/en/Purpose-Investments-Cleared-to-Launch-First-Bitcoin-ETF-in-the-World.html
So guys is there any reason why bnn Bloomberg links can’t be used.
$1786………is that the low……if, so, ……very well could see that low again…..
Now if, it breaks, it will be in overnite trading, and it will be so quick, no one (the average investor)..in the US will benefit, by getting the phyz…. from the low….
Reply to this comment
On February 12, 2021 at 7:27 pm,
Excelsior says:
I’m still leaning towards the November low of $1767.20 holding, and that we’ll move higher from here in Gold. However the metals have been weak, and as I said back in January when things started correcting, I didn’t want to see that November low break, as that would get more ugly and do much more chart damage. So far it has held.
Here is a chart I posted 3 weeks ago and 2 weeks ago showing that Gold has been channeling sideways between the 55 day EMA and the 233 day EMA, in a downward sloping fashion, but the range has been steadily narrowing.
It would have been ideal to see the 233 day EMA hold as support, but recently gold dipped below it making a “higher low” of $1784.60. Even though it was bearish to break the 233 day EMA support, it was short-lived, and putting in a higher low is actually constructive, as long as it holds. Like Jordan Roy-Bryrne mentioned earlier this week, it looks like that was the bottom of this corrective move, but we’ll need more data over the next few weeks to confirm if that was so.
Here’s the Gold chart showing those EMAs and both the recent lows.
https://schrts.co/GCVbjKpP
Jerry I’ve responded to you on the previous blog.. again thank you for your insights as input I like what I’m hearing.
Ex,
Thanks for sharing your chart and I did take a look at it the other day. That 233 red day moving average has been tapped twice and my pattern has it breaking it to the downside.
This is not a battle with you in anyway I’m just sharing my thoughts as always and letting everyone know that I’m very confident it will after plenty of homework..
You bring up valid points as does doc and Matt and everyone else in here. I don’t wish for things to go down I just follow the charts and technically my charts showing me down first before up..
I’m really not that sure how when it comes to the miners more so every single one of them how low they can go or if they even go any lowers hence why it is wise to make some good purchases when one feels it’s a opportunity. Keep stacking the chips at lows is wise as well as trimming when high..
Thanks for you input
Glen
Thanks for the feedback Glen and if the November low at $1767.20 breaks, then I’ll adjust accordingly and may move to the sidelines in the more liquid names that are easy to trade, but then add more during the lows in some of the more illiquid companies that I’m still building positions in for the longer term.
Personally, I’d much prefer that the recent lower high of $1784.60 is the low for the smaller correction that started in January, and that Gold moves higher from here as that range it is trading in between the 55 day EMA and 233 day EMA continues to narrow and build energy.
If it breaks down lower instead of breaking out higher, then I’ll have to take evasive action as mentioned, but that will do much more chart damage. I’ve invested for the breakout, but will be prepared to move swiftly if there is a break down. Cheers!
Ex thanks for your feedback. My right eye is on that November low as well. And it may turn out to be the low. I just can’t go against my pattern at this point but regardless if we did or didn’t Im not selling.
And it has been wise I believe to have been buying companies who tresmes down already and are great opportunity’s.
Doc i know you purchased iamgold awhile back.. it’s is trending or channeling to a very specific level point of which I’ve followed closely for years if not a decade. $3.30-3.80 cad is a fantastic long term buy to park some money with a divindend. Like many companies once we turn up all these miners will start to climb and many will go towards there 2011 highs.
Glen
Thanks Glen. Yes, I’m keeping an open mind as Gold is at an inflection point and have a good plan of action for either a break out or a break down. Of course, the break out would be a far more enjoyable scenario, but if things correct hard, then it presents good buying opportunities. We’ll see how it goes, and sail on through these turbulent waters.
Saturday gold Update!
Before I give you my technical picture and dose of the glen weekend special, I want to wish you all a happy family day for the ones here in Ontario Canada not sure of the other provinces and to everyone else I can assure you the pain if there is a little to come will be very short lives and will not take years to recover. We are in a bull market stronger then ever and much higher targets.
However I have to deliver this message because that’s what I do and I appreciate the contributors who always tune in to give a thank you and to the ones who watch and prefer not to I hope this helps or serves in a positive manner.
To the ones who may think I’m arrogant or strong or have said some words not so kind and exchange with other contributors, rest assured it’s not my nature but I’m confident in what I’m doing currently and that alone stands for my recent success personally and I like to share.
Thanks to each and everyone of you who list companies and exchanges ideas and strength and weakness of such companies. Also to the ones who share technicals and charts like Matthew the professor and many others.
Thank you because I learn from all..
So here goes…
Gold status?
Gold is forming one more path down and starting next week we will see some volatility to start the week and will break lower into the $1774-$1785 region.. With the likely hood of $1774-$1778 on a tighter number. Weekly candle red..
This sets us up for the the final weekly red candle which “ could “ be the final low.. The monthly red candle will be of significance..
I have my lower target number which has been mentioned.. in fact I have a first number and a second one… if next week what I mentioned precisely happens I will share at that point and have a better understanding of which of those to low numbers would be of possibility.
All the best, stay safe and leave some ammo ready if this happens!
Glen
All the best to you..Glen… on this long weekend from Beautiful BC.. where it’s actually snowing this morning..kind of a treat .. or total chaos… debatable lol.Looking forward to your future posts
Ann,
I’ve heard nothing but beautiful things about BC :).. I do love a great snow fall without the windchill of course lol..
Thanks for your words we are going to have spectacular gains once we get through this little bump.
Glen
Ann – We rolled out of bed here to a few inches of beautiful snow as well, but are not going to go drive in it with the chaos you mentioned, and decided this is a warm soup day, and maybe a little hot cocoa. It’s a good day to do some research while we have the nice long weekend. 🙂
Thanks for sharing and keeping us up to date on your views Glenfidish! Much appreciated. Let’s hope we all are rewarded for the years of efforts/investments. Best of luck to all.
Hey Canuckski. Sorry for the delayed response, but I did email you back yesterday, and apologize but my email had filtered it out and just saw it yesterday. I wanted to post a note here, just in case the same thing happened on your end. Cheers!
Glen……..thanks ………I posted a comment over in the other section….
OOTB – I posted a response to your comment for you regarding Lyn Alden Schwartzer’s great piece over in yesterday’s section.
🙂
Hey Wolfster – thanks for the post on the new Bitcoin ETF.
Personally, I thought using the (GBTC) Grayscale Bitcoin Trust worked just fine when I traded it from last fall to this January as Bitcoin proxy.
Lately, over the last few weeks, I mentioned using the crypto mining stocks as a way to play the moves not just in Bitcoin, but some of them also mine Ethereum, Litecoin, and other altcoins.
I totally missed the move in Riot Blockchain, Voyager Digital, and Hut 8 Mining, because I felt they had already moved too much, but I did catch some nice tradable rallies in Argo Blockchain, Hive Blockchain, Cypherpunk Holdings, and Coin Citadel. I sold out of Argo and Hive on Friday, but still have Cypherpunk and Coin Citadel.
________________________________________
I posted this site earlier in the week but it really is a nice summation of the public companies holding Bitcoin Treasuries, and has a number of the crypto miners on it, as well as few private companies. I believe their totals of the Bitcoin’s held are a bit out of date, but gives investors the general idea. It also doesn’t account for all the other cryptos many mine or hold, but it tells you the percentage of their business value that is exposed to just Bitcoin.
Possible Triple Top
The Lithium/Battery ETF may retrace soon. On Friday, LIT’s Maximum Saturation (High) became 6 of 7, which is very strong. Unlike the PMs, this is a popular and promoted sector. Any failure here would signal greater problems.
https://postimg.cc/SXdvBWb7
Blue hash: BackBox272 Boundary
Green hash: 2011 All-Time-High
Will folks leave LIT?
Thanks for the heads up BDC. I trimmed back most of my Lithium stocks in mid January, expecting to get more of a pullback, but they’ve just traded sideways. I still prefer owning the individual Lithium names like Orocobre, Galaxy Resources, Pilbara Minerals, Lithium Americas, Neo Lithium, Cypress Development, etc…. over that monstrosity of an ETF LIT that has all kinds of other industries mixed in like auto manufacturers, chemical conglomerates, and they’ve even had Gold companies mixed in.
If I was going to pick up an ETF like that I’d prefer (BATT) Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF as it straddles both the battery manufacturing and lithium markets in a better way, but leave most of the allocations towards individual Lithium companies.
I was looking at some of the EV Electric Vehicles and E-mobility ETFs earlier this week like (DRIV) (KARS) (HAIL)and (IDRV), for more exposure to that market.
Cool !!
Thanks for the BATT reference.
Will update list (including Copper).
Any suggestions are appreciated.
Sure thing. As stated, for the Lithium sector, I prefer building my own basket of companies, to investing in the EFT (LIT), and while they have improved it some over the last year or so, I’d prefer to see it only include Lithium names.
However, if I was to add a mashup ETF then (BATT) is a nice mix of Battery producers, Lithium miners, Base Metals miners, Chemical companies, and Power companies that really has a broad reach across a number of sectors, and it’s company weightings makes more sense.
Here are the holdings inside of (BATT) Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF:
CONTEMPORARY AM..
TESLA INC
BHP GROUP LTD
BYD COMPANY LTD
LG CHEMICAL
MMC NORILSK NIC..
NIO INC
SAMSUNG SDI
GLENCORE PLC
GANFENG LITHIUM
PANASONIC CORP
EVE ENERGY CO L..
CHINA MOLYBDENU..
ZHEJIANG HUAYOU..
XPENG INC
BLINK CHARGING ..
YUNNAN ENERGY N..
LI AUTO INC
ALBEMARLE CORP
NAURA TECHNOLOG.
UMICORE
NEC CORP
SOLAREDGE TECHN..
SUMITOMO METAL ..
WUXI LEAD INTEL..
FIRST QUANTUM M..
ANEKA TAMBANG
PILBARA MINERAL..
SOCIEDAD QUIMIC..
SOUTH32 LTD
LITHIUM AMERICA..
Cash & Other
YADEA GROUP HOL..
LUNDIN MINING C..
TIANQI LITHIUM ..
PIEDMONT LITHIU..
MINERAL RES LTD
GALAXY RESOURCE..
OROCOBRE LTD
NANJING HANRUI ..
JOHNSON MATTHEY
IGO LTD
L&F CO LTD
VARTA AG
NIKOLA CORP
VALE INDONESIA ..
LIVENT CORP
SUNWODA ELECTRO..
SHENZHEN CAPCHE..
SHANGHAI PUTAIL..
AFRN RAINBOW MI..
GS YUASA CORP
BEIJING EASPRIN..
ILJIN MATERIALS..
ERAMET
SHOWA DENKO KK
WESTERN AREAS L..
AMG ADVANCED ME..
ENERSYS
TIANNENG POWER ..
SIMPLO TECHNOLO..
W-SCOPE CO
WORKHORSE GROUP..
LORDSTOWN MOTOR..
DYNAPACK INTL T..
POWER LOGICS
SHENZHEN YINGHE..
VITZROCELL CO L..
BAIC MOTOR CORP..
KANDI TECHNOLOG..
Thanks! Generally best for MaxSat are Indices and ETFs,
though Maximum Saturation for ‘individuals’ is possible.
Understood. Those are just the company holdings inside of the ETF (BATT) for reference.
Or you could go stock specific for EV with greenpower and for battery play nano one. My 2 suggestions at the start of the year
+2 Thanks Wolfster.
Updated:
S.T.A.T.S. (MaxSat) Turns*
COPPER MINERS
– High: (6.67) Wednesday (10 Feb)
– Low: Monday (22 Feb)
GOLD MINERS
– High: (5.25)
– Low: Friday (19 Feb)
LITHIUM MINERS
– High: Tuesday (16 Feb)
– Low: Monday (22 Feb)
SILVER MINERS
– High: (0.5) Monday (1 Feb)
– Low: Thursday (18 Feb)
URANIUM MINERS
– High: (5.5) Thursday (11 Feb)
– Low: Friday (19 Feb)
*Earliest per MaxSat:
Plus/Minus One Day
( 20% / 45% / 35% )
Data Sources
Copper: COPX-CPER-JJC
Gold: GDM-GDX-GDXJ-HUI-XAU
Lithium: BATT-LIT
Silver: SIL-SILJ
Uranium: URA-URNM
How A Bubble Is Formed: When The Music Is Playing You’ve Got To Get Up And Dance
by @Goldfinger on 12 Feb 2021
“Yesterday, I pointed out that Dogecoin now has a larger market cap than Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC), the tweet received a lot of attention:”
“Kinross is the 5th largest publicly traded gold producer. KGC trades at roughly 8x earnings and has a price/book ratio of 1.57. Kinross also pays a dividend (1.65%) that is higher than the 10-year note yield.”
“I pointed out the absurdity of the Dogecoin/Kinross relative valuation because it illustrates that we are living in a world where traditional methods of financial market valuation have been tossed out the window. The market is rewarding concepts like “Metcalfe’s Law”, which basically states that the value of a network increases exponentially as its user base grows.”
“Therefore, it’s all about user base and engagement. Not about earnings, earnings growth, dividends etc.”
“In fact, nothing could be less attractive to the current market herd than the concept of building a mine, employing people to drive trucks and operate heavy equipment, and extracting gold or some other metal from the earth. This is “old fashioned” and involves much too much actual work. ”
“It’s much better to simply create a cryptocurrency with a story behind it, and then use all sorts of social media marketing techniques in order to build a user base so that you can start talking about Metcalfe’s Law.”
“Value is based upon perception. It is not something tangible. There are many recent examples of valuations becoming completely unhinged from reality (Gamestop, AMC, and some would even argue Tesla)….”
Another excerpt from that piece by @Goldfinger linked above:
“In crypto we are seeing coins go up 10% a day, sometimes in an hour. In Gamestop (NYSE:GME) we witnessed a 15,000% return in a month. Why would I bother with something than only produces a 10% return in a year?”
“I’m sure you can see what I’m getting at here. In the pandemic lockdown, no jobs, market environment of 2020-2021 we are seeing a bubble of epic proportions being blown. As Stan Druckenmiller aptly stated, this is the “wildest cocktail” he’s ever seen.”
“Let’s summarize what this wildest cocktail actually consists of:”
• Extremely accommodative monetary policy from central banks (ZIRP, QE, etc.).
• Large fiscal stimulus programs from governments including direct deposits into taxpayer bank accounts.
• A raging pandemic that has shifted how the world operates and forced most people to work from home.
• A growing mistrust in governments and the traditional financial/banking system.
• An exponential increase in the number of conspiracy theories being perpetuated, largely through the use of social media. The net result in all this is a parabolic increase in mass delusions (“Trump won”, “The pandemic is a hoax”, various forms of financial misinformation including reddit etc.).
• Bitcoin and crypto have gone mainstream with dozens of financial institutions (banks, hedge funds, etc.) now investing in, and using cryptocurrency. This has given a level of validation to the entire space, despite the fact that it has a seedy underbelly.
• The human attention span has never been shorter – we want to be entertained, and we want instant gratification.
• In recent history, it has been much more lucrative for young people (under age 40) to speculate in markets than to hold a job or do anything productive.
• A “Robinhood generation” of market participants has been created. Finance is becoming increasingly democratized and everyone believes that they can, and should be, an investor and market speculator.
“I could go on, including citing numerous specific examples from my day to day life. However, I think you get the point… “
One more excerpt from that @Goldfinger piece with a good quote to mull over:
____________________________________________________________________-
Ex-Citi CEO Chuck Prince’s famous quote circa 2007 couldn’t be more apropos today:
“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”
“I’m still dancing, but I’m dancing a little slower and I’ve positioned myself at the door with one foot out of the building….” — Goldfinger
“Some would even argue Tesla”? TSLA is objectively “unhinged from reality” and in a huge bubble.
Agreed Matthew. Tesla is about as unhinged from reality in its valuation as anything trading out there. The market froth is everywhere and Tesla is one of the frothiest.
Trump acquitted 57-43. If the glove don’t fit you must acquit! Romney is a rat.
The seven GOP senators who joined with all Democrats in finding Trump guilty were: Sens. Richard Burr of North Carolina, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Ben Sasse of Nebraska and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania.
Which Democrats voted against?
Jerry,
Thanks for keep us in the loop! Very much appreciated even though if thread I’m really happy for this info!
Bonzo thank you!!!
Those piece of shit senators will have there say’ BDC Im sure not one!
Glen…………thanks for noticing……..appreciate the comments……..just trying to do my little part, keeping those informed that care…. have a great week end….my friend….
Jerry: Those Democrats may be allies.
It was never Demoncrats vs Repugnuts!
BDC…..
For the record, and I am on record…..over 10 yrs saying this…..
There is only one party…..THE TWO HEADED SNAKE PARTY.
The ENTIRE CONGRESS….is a JOKE.
WE THE PEOPLE……have no party, no govt, no justice dept., just one big con game.
McConnell indicated agreement on the facts and said Trump is guilty of the substantive evidence provided. However, he said procedurally they could not get to the issue of guilt because the impeachment wasn’t Constitutional. That was an avoidance conclusion as had it been “a real trial”, (and it wasn’t by Senate rules) , a Court would have ruled on Constitutionality in pretrial hearings, and a real jury would have had to rule on the merits of the facts. McConnell also said that Civil and Criminal options were still available against Trump, assuming the Statute Of Limitations haven’t run on the various offenses. So, a political solution was pursued as opposed to a legal one. That is all that happened.
McConnell………….is a loser………….he should just retire from the party……
Ding Dong McConnell……not worth writing anymore concerning that FOOL….
Should have been gone a long time ago…..Shipping Container of NoNothing….
Trump should never have given McConnell’s wife any cabinet position….
Get rid of Citizens United and make them rely only on capped donations from voters and see if their performance changes.
Come on you goldbugs. Bitcoin is LOVE and gold is headed for the glue factory!
ttps://marketsanity.com/bitcoin-fastest-horse-in-the-race-gold-headed-for-the-glue-factory-stacy-herbert/
Yeah, I had watched that yesterday, but considered Max Kaiser’s lady to be a little too out there to post it. I wonder what Frank Giustra and Ian Telfer think of that piece, stating Gold is headed for the glue factor, as they have put Daniela Cambone on the board of the newly launched Aris Gold (ARIS).
https://www.arisgold.com/about-us/board-of-directors/default.aspx
Well, technically it is not actually “new’ but rather a reboot of Caldas Gold, with mo money, mo promotion, and mo VIPs on the board. It looks interesting, and with that cast of folks, I’m sure it will do well, just like what Equinox Gold did when rebooting older assets, so I picked up some shares on Monday and Wednesday of this week.
Lyn Alden: 2021 Market Crash vs. The Return Of Inflation? (Bitcoin, Gold & Silver Predictions)
ILoveProsperity w/ Jake Ducey – Feb 13, 2021
“In this video we talk with Lyn Alden. We discuss the central question many are debating; is there going to be a 2021 market crash, or will there be a return of inflation? This is the million dollar question, and Lyn Alden breaks down exactly what she’s looking at the in the markets today. She discusses her views on Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, and investing in Bitcoin, Investing in Gold and Silver. Lyn shares her personal predictions of how the next decade will pan out, and gives many historical references from her great research.”
This interview from Lyn was posted on Friday’s blog, but it got put up there pretty late, so I’ll repost it here.
____________________________________
Lyn Alden’s 2021 Macro Outlook
Real Vision Finance – Feb 11, 2021
“Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategies shares her 2021 thesis for the U.S. dollar, interest rates, inflation, and growth, providing a strategic update of how her expectations for these key macro variables influence her outlook on assets such as commodities, EM equities, real estate, gold, and bitcoin. Alden evaluates whether her bearish view on the dollar, which has proven enormously successful over the past year, has now become a “crowded trade” that offers less upside than it used to. . With insolvency remaining a serious risk, Alden insists that when searching for individual securities, quality must be sought above all else. Looking beyond 2021, Alden evaluates the possibility of the fall of the dollar not just in value, but as a hegemonic reserve currency, and she weighs various replacements to the Petrodollar system, such as a multipolar currency regime, a digital Bancor system, and the possibility of Bitcoin becoming a reserve asset.”
— Filmed on December 17, 2020.
Just my personal opinion, but Lyn is much sharper on the macro economics and more measured in her views on Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin, than Stacy.
Lyn Alden – January 2021 Newsletter:
You mean his views on Gold, Silver and Bitcoin.
Thx. Ex.Love listening to Jake.. He has an awesome demeanor
Yeah, Jake is a sharp up and coming macro analyst, and he loves Silver, Gold, and Uranium. He also cracks me up with his comments and questions sometimes. Cheers!
The week that just ended was obviously not ideal for the gold space bulls but there were some positives. The bears did fail to secure back-to-back weekly closes below the 50 week MA while GLD filled Monday’s big gap without even reaching last week’s closing price (missed by 7 cents). In addition, silver managed to get its first weekly MACD buy signal since May and has been on a weekly MACD buy signal versus gold for three weeks. Silver:Gold also put in its best weekly close in 4.5 years.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p47358479264
The little ditty above say’s SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! At the top of a market you always get hundreds of thousands of people speculating without the slightest knowledge of the nature of the company upon whose fortunes they were relying. We have seen that lately with The Reddit and Robinhood crowds. Why not to long ago I bought Freegold Airlines believing it was an aviation stock only to find out that it is in fact a gold exploration company. Never mind as long as I reap rewards. You see how quickly life can become absurd. DT
Boys! Must watch Jesse Felder. Check out the charts. This is one for the ages…excremental as Jesse calls it.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/a-market-crash-and-high-inflation/
Ebolan – thanks for posting that piece featuring some of Jesse Felders analysis.
This embedded chart on Margin Debt-to-GDP is pretty telling of the speculative froth we see in the markets, and the nosebleed valuations seen in so many lunatic high-flying stocks.
Completely insane…but I bet it’s going to get much more insane before it all blows up…more excremental growth…as Jesse calls it…around the 8 minute mark of that video…excremental growth if the financial term defining this era.
We are living in nutty times…nutty times beyond belief…and here is some more nuttyness.. but at least it is funny.
Yes “excremental growth” sums it up well, as the markets are filled to the rim with B.S. valuations.
Haha! Yes, I saw that cat lawyer video earlier this week where the guy couldn’t turn of that zoom filter. Hilarious!
Now how do we know it was three cats, two of whom had lawyer filters turned on???
When the correction comes in the general markets, the margin calls are going to fuel a nasty spike down in so many asset classes, and that will be nasty and catch many investors so used to buying the mild dips in the indexes tied to the S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell 2000 by surprise. It will be a correction that doesn’t get bought right back up, and as the selling pressure mounts, it will trigger more and more margin calls. We’ve never seen this much leverage being used, and the markets are priced to perfection after a year of lockdows, supply chain interruptions, and whole industries tanking. The disconnect between Wall St. and Main St has never been so large, and it’s not a question of if?, but rather a question of when? the bubble pops, and the margin calls begin.
And this time the Feral Reserve won’t be able to save the Neo-Feudal Casino Gulag Plantation Fractured Reserve Debt Based Ponzi Scheme and the whole outhouse of an economy will burn to the ground…this is what happens when every institution in society is corrupt.
And this time all the kings stimulus programs and all the central bankers monetization of debt, won’t be able to put the Humpty Dumpty Market back together again….
https://content.thriveglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/iStock-97743461-2.jpg?w=1024
It’s more concentration than “excremental” growth,
echoing politics, where when IN power, centralize.
Comment by BrushHog there: “My view is, if the economy collapses under Biden it means they didn’t have total control. If they manage to keep this ridiculous monstrosity going for 4 years without collapse it means they have near total control of the entire system…I don’t know which is worse but we’re going to find out relatively soon.”
Heck, I thought the Ponzi would collapse in 2008. Never thought it could last over another decade. But the PTB are heading us incrementally towards an excremental situation, no doubt about that. The chickens come home to roost, eventually.
Hi Ebolan,
For what it’s worth I’ve been hearing for decades the Ponzi scheme will collapse yada yada yada and it’s nothing against you or anyone. I’ve just heard it all Uber the years and I’ve come to the conclusion that if it doesn’t come to an end, it just strengthens my views and attitude towards this gold bull market for many more years. Regardless the investments will go up with there out of control printing.
They are caught in this game and are willing to die before they let it blow up. Under Biden’s administration, you will see the biggest stimulus ever and it won’t stop. They can’t. What will stop it all is the bankruptcies that will follow very soon, coupled with rates breaking free and rising. Won’t take much this time around as Dt discussed with me many years ago. 4-5% here in Canada and the shit which is already going down will hit the fan..
I think we have 4-8 years left in this gold bull if not longer. This of course without intervention by government.
Your thoughts guys?
Glenfish, I don’t know if you or anyone else is still paying attention to these comments or have moved on to more recent posts. But I will tell you, you are right bout people saying for decades the Ponzi scheme will collapse.
And maybe our rulers can keep it going for another decade or maybe even another generation. But if they can, it will decimate an already shrinking middle class.
People need to educate themselves and take action.
They should tar and feather these tyrants…make them have “excremental growth” in their underpants!
Some more silver news , from..JHANDERS. >>>>> PHY.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-02-13/silver-about-tear-peoples-faces
Tens of thousands of margin calls will hit the road immediately when the next stock move is down, but most are also ignoring the problem with Hedge Funds. The corruption in these so called “Trusts” runs deep and dirty. What really scared these funds were the rogue traders because hedge funds are honeycombed and intertwined with debt like the rest of society. The Bankers have used duct tape to keep them going but it will only take a few to start crashing and they will carry the rest with them. DOWN, DOWN, DOWN, they will go in a shot heard around The World. The number of Hedge Funds is very close to 10,000, it will be quite a panic at first and then a crash of epic proportions. DT
Now that The Democratic Party has control of the three legislative branches of Government they will be emboldened to start handing out even more entitlements, in the “Land Of The Free For All.” This will surely hasten the decline and swell the numbers of asylum seekers at America’s borders. Rome lasted one thousand years, America only ninety. DT
(AR) (ARNGF) Argonaut Gold: Transforming Into A Low-Cost Gold Producer
Soar Financial Online Session 06 – Feb 12, 2021
Presentation: Peter Dougherty, President & CEO Argonaut
(DEF) (DNCVF) Defiance Silver – Silver Stock with Big Plans for 2021
Soar Financial Online Session 06 – Feb 10, 2021
Presentation: Doug Cavey, VP Corporate Development – Defiance Silver Corp.
Great points ex!
This does have me a little concerned because as we know gold/silver tend to get shaken out a bit sometimes more them we want. For years I’ve heard it won’t affect our miners but have learned that it is extremely shrewd to prepare for such events and have a plan of action.. I do think however if it does happen the mining sector should lead up fast and higher with new revaluation..
So you think it can happen any point the feral market crash or big correction? Are we saying as soon as tomorrow and as late as 3-6 months from now?
Glen
Matthew or anyone else let me know what you feel about the general market and timeline as for a big correction like how soon?
Hi Glen,
I don’t have a timeline for when a market crash is coming, but that chart of Margin Debt-to-GDP at all time highs that Jesse Felder posted is quite telling and shows the insane levels of speculation going on in the markets. When the correction comes, maybe in a few months, maybe in a year, that margin selling is going to fuel more selling, and the only thing to stop it will be market circuit breakers, and the Fed trying to buy, buy, buy.
Normally in a market, the short-sellers actually serve the purpose of providing some floor, as they’ll start to pull profits during corrections and cover positions offering some buying liquidity. However, now short-sellers are an endangered species, and they won’t be there in mass to quell the selling when the music stops.
Yes, I’ve never agreed with the thesis the the miners won’t get sold off in in that kind of event, and really that line is parroted a lot, but I don’t see anyone actually claiming that in the market. Anyone that’s been around a while, remembers quite well that in 2008 & 2009 the PMs sold off hard (granted they were at much loftier levels in 2007-2008 pre-crash, and much more widely held by institutions, so they got liquidated to cover other margin calls). Another example was last year when the selling started in late February and continued into March, that was the scariest draw down in my portfolio ever, and many of the higher torque PM stocks were down 30-60% in just a few weeks.
If we see another market selloff, I’m sure the PMs and miners will take a hit, but just like we saw in mid 2009 post Great Financial Crisis, or post mid-March 2020 post Pandemic Flash-Crash, the metals and miners took off very fast, and recovered much quicker than most sectors. Also, when the fear sets in Gold gets the safe haven bid in retrospect. Those are 2 good case studies in what may happen if we get a major market dislocation over the course of the next year, and why it is good to keep some cash on the side.
Having said that, I’m not going to sit around waiting for a market crash, and miss a nice tradable rally in the metals, and if that recent higher low in Gold of $1784 holds, and the $1767 November low is not tested further, then there may be some really nice gains to be had in the PM sector.
I’m just a bit nervous watching all the market froth in so many sectors – the general market indexes (especially the Russell 2000 small caps) have been screaming higher, the Bio-tech stocks have been ripping higher, the Cryptos have gone crazy frothy, the Cannabis stocks have valuations that are in the stratosphere, the Uranium stocks have been surging, the Lithium stocks have been surging, the Graphite stocks have been surging, the Copper stocks have been on a tear….
It is a bit disconcerting to see this overbought froth, without much concern of the party ever ending by most market participants. Most Wall St and Bay St investors seem to believe markets can only go up, and most are too young in the professional careers to have experienced a true gut retching correction like the 1987 Black Monday or even the 2000 Dot Com implosion.
We are on the precipice of another big shakeout, and this bull market in general equities that started in 2009 and has run to 2021 is about one of the longest and most epic we’ve seen in a long time, but after the party…. the hangover….
I don’t want to come across as overly “doom & gloom” though, because, I’ve been amazed at how long the can has been kicked down the road on avoiding the collapse that started in 2008, and maybe the central bankers buying, and government stimulus can keep things elevated for a while longer. I had put on a short in the Russell a few weeks back, and pulled it off for a wash for just that reason, when it looked like the markets would continue to defy gravity. I am thinking about putting it back on again soon, but shorting the markets has been a fool’s errand for about 12 years now. That is part of the reason that when the correction does actually come, it may be swift and ugly, because there are so few shorts left.
The other thing that really has me a bit concerned is how different the sentiment is now compared to where it was coming out of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. Back then, I was in the insurance and financial planning business, and was analyzing families portfolios of assets (real estate, debt, savings, investments, 401Ks/retirement funds, etc…). We sold annuities, traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, etc… and did banking doing CDs, money markets, savings accounts, etc… When I’d ask folks about how they were contributing to their 401K or starting an IRA or Roth, they’d repeatedly say, they didn’t trust the stock markets and were never going back, and would opt for our CDs or Money Markets, which were paying crap for interest, but they were higher than they were now. Sometimes people would pick the annuities making 3-5% at the time, or they’d pick permanent life insurance paying 3.5% inside the policy as a way to store money. It defied logic, as the best place to park money in 2009 was the markets as everything had already sold off to insanely low levels, but nobody wanted in.
Now, fast-forward to last year in 2020, when everyone was locked at home all year, and there were record-setting amounts of new trading brokerage accounts opened up, and a massive new wave of retail investors flooding into the markets, and it sure seems like the retail hordes have entered the markets to buy the top.
The time there should have been record setting amounts of new brokerage accounts opened up should have been 2009, at the lows. Instead, after a dozen years of bull market action like nobody had ever seen, then in 2020 they decided they wanted to become investors. (??) Most people can’t escape their human emotions and actually despise buying when things are low, but the love buying when assets scream to new highs. Look at Apple and Tesla that keep rocketing higher and higher, or Bitcoin, or Cannabis stocks. They don’t like buying them when they are low, but if it keeps breaking out to new highs, then suddenly everyone wants to become a trader.
I mentioned earlier this week the anecdotal story that 3 of my buddies, that never cared about investing, and always ripped on me for spending so much time following the markets, all contacted me that they had opened accounts and were trading pot stocks and cryptos, out of nowhere. I asked, what in the world took them so long to get started, and they all felt things were going to really run now. That makes me quite nervous, and while all bubbles can be blown larger and larger still, I’m worried there is going to be a ton of capital wiped out in the next big correction, and peoples savings and disposable incomes are going to head to money heaven and be evaporated.
Until then, I’ll keep trading, but like Goldfinger mentioned in his post linked up above:
“I’m still dancing, but I’m dancing a little slower and I’ve positioned myself at the door with one foot out of the building….”
Hey Ex, check and double check on those thoughts! DT
“I’m worried there is going to be a ton of capital wiped out in the next big correction, and peoples savings and disposable incomes are going to head to money heaven and be evaporated.”
There’s always ‘Krell Money’ … until …. https://i.pinimg.com/736x/83/85/a3/8385a3f0e3ab17568c8626570799660b.jpg
A correction will come when “they” make it come and they are on the “right” side of the trade. We, unfortunately and fortunately, have to band together to try and best predict when a correction may occur because it may well happen when fundamentals and technicals least predict it.
Just my 2 cents which is probably a negative number like interest rates.
You know Ex, when your 3 buddies who never cared about investing started trading why didn’t they talk to you first, it just shows you how foolish we are as a species in learning from others and the past. They obviously think it’s easy when it isn’t. DT
ALL you GUYs…………..have some great thoughts……JMO
Thanks DT, yeah, I don’t know what my buddies are doing, but it just shows that everyone is off on their own investing journeys. All this new money and so many new trading accounts may be why there is more liquidity showing up in so many markets, but it does seem like the kind of activity we see at tops, and really reminds me of the 2000 dot com bubble in the markets.
Agreed OOTB. There are lots of good insights shared here from the whole KER crew.
Well…Ex.. I love your “ still dancing but”…. approach. My Husband’s has been fidgeting a bit more than usual the last month or so.. makes me a little nervous.. He looks after..trades,etc. 2 of my accounts.I’m solely on my own trading one account, without any input from him.The only advice he’s giving me is…spend some time on Ker.. read their comments..download their links.. ask a question or 2.. from time to time ..lol..
Ex,
Sorry for the delay…It is a great post and very informative. Nice breakdown of the macro and also the overall picture of the market and how you plan to play it.
I agree 100% and I as well won’t wait around for the general market to crash as we have plenty of upside to come in the miners. Major corrections are buying opportunities.
Cheers
Glen
Hi Ann, yes in times like these we all get a bit fidgety, but I’m still quite bullish on the precious metals and also the whole commodity sector medium to longer term. Now, whether or not we see a worse correction in the near term, or if we have bounced and are moving higher, I’ll personally still be holding most of my positions. If the November low in Gold breaks, then I’ll likely move some of the more liquid positions to the side until the correction plays through, but there is still a path forward where the recent higher low at $1784 will hold and we’ll move up from here, so being out of a position for that would be just a risky.
This is also a reason, I’ve been a regular proponent of staying diversified, as my account continued to surge to all time highs the end of last year and even up to present, because other sectors like Copper, Platinum/Palladium, Uranium, Lithium, Cryptos, etc… have continued to race higher, and this buoyed any weakness in the PMs.
In addition, this kind of market volatility is also what it is good to have funds on the sideline in “dry powder” to fire off into any oversold opportunities for accumulation.
Yes, please feel free to throw questions out to the group here and stay engaged, as that is the whole point of this forum… to share ideas and insights. Nobody individually had all the answers or is without biases and blind spots, so as a group, it is good to share differing opinions, or confirm ideas that seem to have merit, and this keeps all of us learning, growing, and we’ll all be better informed investors.
As the saying goes… “When you stay green (student), you grow, but when you get ripe (expert that thinks they know it all) then you rot.”
Personally, I strive to stay green and a perpetual student of the market and life, and try to learn from everyone and get a little be better at the craft every day. Ann the fact that you are asking questions, seeking clarification, and participating will lead to personal growth, an expanded awareness, and financial prosperity.
Ever Upward!
Thanks Glen. Yes, it’s good to have a strategy for either scenario (bullish/bearish) and that way whatever plays out, one can execute the plan while minimizing any trading emotions. I find that the times where I make the dumbest decisions personally, is when I don’t have a good plan in plan in place and feel caught off-guard by market action. Whatever happens in the short term, the longer term bull market is still intact, and we should all be smiling in a year or two from the positions we’ve built the last few years. Cheers!
Added a Sector:
S.T.A.T.S. (MaxSat) Turns*
CANNABIS
– High: (7) Wednesday (10 Feb)
– Low: Thursday (18 Feb)
COPPER MINERS
– High: (6.67) Wednesday (10 Feb)
– Low: Monday (22 Feb)
GOLD MINERS
– High: (5.25)
– Low: Friday (19 Feb)
LITHIUM MINERS
– High: Tuesday (16 Feb)
– Low: Monday (22 Feb)
SILVER MINERS
– High: (0.5) Monday (1 Feb)
– Low: Thursday (18 Feb)
URANIUM MINERS
– High: (5.5) Thursday (11 Feb)
– Low: Friday (19 Feb)
*Earliest per MaxSat
(Plus/Minus one day)
Data Sources
Cannabis: MJ-MSOS-POTX-YOLO
Copper: COPX-CPER-JJC
Gold: GDM-GDX-GDXJ-HUI-XAU
Lithium: BATT-LIT
Silver: SIL-SILJ
Uranium: URA-URNM
Erratum:
GOLD MINERS
– High: (5.25) Thursday (11 Feb)
– Low: Friday (19 Feb)
Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – Everything Alt Is Hot – Part I
@TheTechnicalTraders on 14 Feb 202
Ex: Considering the proclivities here,
which sectors should I concentrate on?
(Currently developing IT/High Tech.)
IT/HT Sources: VGT-XLK-QQQ-FDN-ARKK
Here’s hoping this is true. Silver ETF SLV admits trouble sourcing metal and vulnerability to ‘dramatic’ short squeeze
http://gata.org/node/20913
Hi BDC – I think your sectors and ETFs above for Gold, Silver, Copper, Uranium, Lithium, Cannabis, and IT look pretty good as a group to compare.
Thanks! Working on a better presentation.
Ex I answered you up above! Again great summary and overall perspective of things and how to approach..
David your absolutely right when it comes, it’s fast and furious regarding general market correction.
Ann great job on your account and anyone can do it providing you out the hard work Into it.. came here to the ker maybe in 2006 or 2008 can’t quite remember.. the good old days.. I won’t ot my back but as many know ups and downs as you can’t even imagine and survived. It’s been my best approach and charting with technicals in the last two years that I have ever had. One word=work lol.. second word=no sleep.. it’s the price you pay for the reward.
Jerry thank you, we also enjoy your Everyday dose of prosperity!!
Gold update!
Thought I’d add some info having spent the last two days working…It’s quite possible if my down movement as I believe and pattern works out, we could be looking at a low in April.. God that Doc has been pretty on lately.. And my charts are confirming it if it happens..
Still 99% believe November low will be broken and that $1671-$1685 with $1681-$1685 closer narrow range just keeps calling to me on my radar for quite sometime…That is my first target that I mentioned would be reached after breaking November low..
Again guys just sharing what I see and I don’t mean to be bearish.. Regardless either outcome when positioned correctly will not cause harm unless you are on margins or leveraged…I’m positioned to win if that November low was the low and I will be positioned to buy with every penny I have left if we break that November low..
So the sell in May “might” not be prudent.. if my scenario would work out we could be looking at February, March or April low.. I will keep sharing what I see..
As others have mentioned coming out of this current bottom or February March April bottom, we are running higher till 2014 with corrections in between…
$3000-$5000 gold is a given with $5000 pretty sure baked in.. Timeline who knows..
Glen
Glen…………Thanks again……and did you notice………PLATINUM…. 🙂
Have just read all the above post’s , & i must say all you Guys & Gals are sharp. Keep it up. Platinum is coming back to life , thats a positive.
Tough to find much to listen to or read on this slow day. However, the following video with Louis Gave was worthwhile. He has somewhat different thoughts on both gold and bitcoin…Apologies if posted earlier: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qsgubxYYgo
Thanks SilverDollar..First time I’ve listened to it..
Musk claims he is an alien, even though he wants to send a spacecraft to Mars we know he isn’t a Martian because he has more than three fingers. LOL! DT
DT…Thats not true , he has false one’s which he keep by his bed at night…lol
DT…I really know nothing about Musk.Does the guy really claim to be an alien??..
Hi Ann…Just for you.
https://www.rt.com/news/515468-musk-confirms-alien-identity/
Thanks Irish!!,
Hi Ann, I do think that this UFO phenomenon after all these years is more fact than fiction and that there are aliens living amongst us. Something or someone more intelligent than our species must stop us from destroying ourselves. DT
Aliens are not going to “save” us, they wait until we do ourselvs in and then move in without the issue of breaking the confederations interplanetary rules of non involvement.
section c dash 46 if I recall.
Gold, Silver, Platinum …
STATS Earliest Likely Turns: https://postimg.cc/jnwDdD0D
Platinum details to come. Comments appreciated.
Platinum…………like I said a few months ago…………On the MOVE…..
Sneaking up, and no one watching…….
Hey GLEN……………
Hi Jerry…I did mention it…12 comments above your’s
Great minds………ah, I just saw it……..thanks for the heads up…. 🙂
From what I remember reading the CHinese like platinum….and since they are going to dominate in the future…..I say , it is a safe bet……JMO
Mid Class, Chinese , like that status ………..jmo
Latest: https://postimg.cc/zLjs00sS
It shows likely short term turn dates.
Comments & suggestions appreciated.
Interesting on the dates…….thanks for posting…..
Next low 2/19…for platinum…..we will see how accurate that is……should be interesting.
Thanks! Spruced up version at “Rubino”.
OOTB…. Das BOOT. Yes, we’ve been in agreement about Platinum’s potential to gain on Gold and Palladium since last year, as has Bob M. if you recall.
I’ve banged on the drum a number of times for the last year about the stealth bull market the PGM stocks have been experiencing, pointing out the really nice moves higher in stocks like Jubilee Platinum, Platinum Group Metals, Group Ten Metals, Generation Mining, Grid Metals, Sylvania Platinum, Canada Nickel, and New Age Metals. Go PGMs!!
Ex…….I think you and me , are the only ones watching Platinum…., I am looking long term again.
For those of you following kodiak it’s pretty apparent that news is coming out Tuesday or Wednesday as Claudia is doing an Online Investment Conference presentation this coming Wednesday, February 17, 4:05 PM
Bring on the Kodiak newsflow! Dr Copper has been peppy lately.
Well, I got Freegold Ventures right back on the 6th (it finished the week 24% higher and was 33% higher on Wednesday). Too bad I don’t own it!
On February 6, 2021 at 2:08 pm,
Matthew says:
The chart actually looks great, guys. Considering the monster 5,500% advance off the March low, it has held up well. I bet it has bottomed and will do great next week…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FVL.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10085360662
It’s one of my favorites, Thanks Matthew. DT
So far so good on this one, too:
On February 4, 2021 at 7:31 am,
Matthew says:
Pyrite, yes, I consider GOAU a good buy here. The downside risk is probably about 50 cents which would be a retest of the 1/27 low at 18.08…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOAU&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p96307009420&a=900584553
Now checking the general markets.
RUT shows MaxSat 7 (Top) on 2/10.
Jerry,
You were bang on buddy regarding Platinum!! You did call it..
Regarding copper, I know a few of you have been playing it, I dipped in about 4-6 months ago on two copper plays.. they done well and I’m glad I did. Copper is going to do well as other commodities..
We are going into a commodities super cycle beginning now and for the next 3-4 years will be extremely rewarding.. I can’t stress enough guys this is we’re the money is going to be made.
Irish thanks for the kind words regarding smart group in here.. if we can be half as smart as you and Jerry I think we will be fine 😀💪
Matthew, ex, dt, wolf, Charles, david, hedge, doc, ozi, Ann, everyone else Im looking for a list of three top gold mining companies that you believe if given the best price or current market price “pays” the best divindend?
I’m all ears
My first thought when you were interested in a dividend stock, was maybe a Royalty stock may be better option.
David I’m all ears which one were you thinking? I may all ears..I know Franco has been a favourite amongs the peers at ker. Newmont?
Thanks
Glen – I haven’t done a deep dive on which mining companies have the best dividends but I had read somewhere in the past that Rio Tinto had a pretty good dividend.
David mentioned the royalty companies as a good idea, and I agree – Franco Nevada, Royal Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals, Sandstorm… Some of the mid-tiers also have dividends like Maverix, Nomad, and (Metalla is TBD after having paused them starting in April last year due to Covid).
Some of the Major producers like the Barrick and Newmont likely have some of the most solid dividends, but I don’t usually go that far up the food chain.
We had mentioned on here last week how solid the dividend is in Jaguar Mining, and that is a company I was happy holding with a nice weighting in my portfolio before they offered a dividend, just for their growth potential and rising margins after executing on their turn around strategy.
I also collect dividends in Silvercorp (another company I would gladly hold as the lowest cost Silver producer on the planet, even if they didn’t offer a dividend).
One more we discussed, but it is a smaller dividend is Gold Resource Corp. They are going through a change in strategy, and split their Nevada assets off into the new Fortitude Gold, but I believe they are going to still pay a dividend on their Mexican production assets.
Glen
Glen, I’m much more interested in the more speculative stuff at this time. That’s where the real value is. For example, I increased my position in Galleon Gold by more than 5 fold since I mentioned it here over a month ago.
I agree 100% Matt that there is way more money to be made that way. Your probably wondering why I’m even considering that’s since my portfolio when looks at by my bank institution comes across as super aggressive or super high risk lol..
At some point I’m going to have to park money amd there are different ways to do so but I would like to allocate a Leeds tags to higher dividends and comfort. I’m talking 10-15% as we move higher.
In that case, I think you would do well with Newmont, Barrick, Agnico Eagle, Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti, Newcrest, Kirkland Lake, Kinross, etc. My top three are probably the first three: NEM, GOLD, AEM.
Hard to disagree with Matthews top 3….. AEM would be my pick if I had to pick only one
Those are some great choices I’m going to keep them in mind. Thanks wolf.
Sorry if all my other attempts finally show up but here’s the kodiak drill results as expected
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/kodiak-drills-213-m-of-065-copper-and-037-gt-gold
Thanks Cory, Big Al, and all the KER contributors for another great week of daily editorials and another solid weekend show.
Ever Upward!