Relax……all in due time…… 🙂

Oh I’m relaxed…. the PM miners are about to put me to sleep. ZZZzzzz…….

Sweet – The Ballroom Blitz

https://youtu.be/ewFBuYHldeY

Ok… 🙂

If Nighthawk continues to tank, I’m prepared to add a 2nd and 3rd tranche at lower levels.

Another Gold explorers that has tanked is Sokoman Minerals (SIC) after they put out this press release and it underwhelmed investor expectations. They had put out larger intercepts of higher grades previously, so when they put out these good, but not great results, flavor-of-the-day hot money scurried out of the stock and I’ve been buying, because not every single exploration campaign will be as successful as the ones before it even with a good company and good deposit. Sometimes the results from one campaign can underwhelm, but if they are still finding high grade gold and learning more about their deposit, then I feel actually more confident that their next drill campaign will impress.

SOKOMAN MINERALS REPORTS PHASE 5 RESULTS AT MOOSEHEAD GOLD PROJECT
JULY 15, 2020

MH-20-86 4.70 m @ 18.60 g/t Au, incl. 1.85 m @ 46.99 g/t Au (from 271.80 m downhole)*
MH-20-82 9.50 m @ 5.70 g/t Au, incl. 1.70 m @ 29.19 g/t Au (from 206.50 m downhole)*

https://sokomanmineralscorp.com/2020/07/15/sokoman-minerals-reports-phase-5-results-at-moosehead-gold-project/

Here was the Azimut Exploration news that caused it to tank a few days ago, and again these are really wide intercepts and there are some really nice high grade segments in those holes, but investors acted like the company had shot their family dog when this presser came out, so I’ve been buying.

Also their headline was about as boring as one could make it, and you can tell these are well-meaning geos putting out this release, and they need to hire a marketing person as they could have highlighted the wide intercepts and high grade segment in the title garnering more interest.

______________________________________________________________

(AZM) (AZMTF) Azimut Discloses Drilling Results from Gold Discovery on the Elmer Property, James Bay Region, Quebec

by @newswire on 27 Jul 2020,

2.77 g/t Au over 90.20 m including 12.28 g/t Au over 14.2 m
2.61 g/t Au over 72.15 m including 29.24 g/t Au over 4.95 m
1.14 g/t Au over 103.15 m including 4.15 g/t over 12.0 m
3.66 g/t Au over 22.75 m including 7.21 g/t Au over 10.65 m

https://ceo.ca/@newswire/azimut-discloses-drilling-results-from-gold-discovery

Back to the Nighthawk Gold — The other thing in their resource update was that they used calculations based on $1425 gold price. That is nice and conservative, but Gold is at $1950, so they could have at least gone with a Gold price in the $1600-$1700 region. Just another thought…

https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/nighthawk-defines-initial-underground-resource-at-colomac

“The 2020 Colomac MRE incorporates 924 drill holes totaling 177,598 metres that defines open pit and underground resources and outlines 25.89 million tonnes (“Mt”) at an average grade of 2.01 grams per tonne gold for 1.67 million ounces of Indicated Resources and 5.71 Mt at an average grade of 2.03 gpt Au for 0.37 Moz of Inferred Resources. The Damoti MRE is based on 266 drill holes totaling 33,433 metres and outlines 0.74 Mt at an average grade of 4.97 gpt Au for 0.12 Moz of Inferred Resources.”

__________________________________________

A number of investors over at ceo and stockhouse wanted to see an indicated resource well over 2 million ounces, instead of the 1.67 Million on the resource update. They still had 370,000 ounces in the inferred category and they have more drilling to expand it further, so it just seemed like a big temper tantrum today from Nighthawk investors.

Is 1.67 Million ounces of 2 g/t gold chopped liver?

Also I think some people got hung up on the maiden resource estimate for Damoti being so small, but it is just a supporting project as a kicker. The main value driver is still Colomac and they’ve found enough to have an economic deposit. I’m speculating that they’ll get this deposit over 2 million ounces indicated as they do more drilling, and at one point it will be large enough to garner a buy from a larger company. It may be sluggish for a while, but I’m fine with that that and want more time to accumulate (hopefully at even lower prices) before it moves back higher again.

>> I should put up this word of caution, just in case any newer PM investors are reading, and that is that most exploration companies will fail in their attempt to locate, delineate, and derisk an economical deposit. They are all very high risk.

This is precisely why I don’t put much capital to work in true grassroots explorers (although I own a few as lottery tickets). Personally, I’m much more comfortable waiting until a company has made a real discovery and is working on doing a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round of drilling on it to see if they hit a larger feeder zone (like what Lion One has just done), or if they do step out drilling and find that it just isn’t large enough, or if it isn’t continuous or connected, etc.. As a company does successive drill campaigns they learn more about their project (because even with geo magnetic test and geo chem and soil sampling, those are all just clues…. ultimately a project needs to be drilled and that is the truth machine).

In the case of Nighthawk, Azimut, and Sokoman mentioned above, they have all made discoveries in 2018, and furthered work in 2019, and they were all on a good trajectory higher (in general), but this week all 3 were punished severely to the downside (20-30% corrective moves) because they put out long-awaited news and the market was disappointed…expecting more.

There ARE legitimate gripes at each one (Nighthawk has been working and drilling for a while so folks thought their resource estimate would be much larger by now, Azimut hit on 7 of 7 their initial drill holes with really wide intercepts of higher grade, and this campaign they were not as wide or high grade, and a few scout holes further out didn’t find much, and Sokoman was on a 5th drill program and found more gold but it wasn’t as high grade or as substantial as past drilling).

Sometimes with exploration companies, it isn’t what they’ve previously found that is driving the share price, but the expectations and narratives investors are telling themselves of “how big could this be?” or “I wonder if the next holes will be even better?” but this kind of projection on their investment thesis inherently leads to disappointment, as we’ve just seen, and can lead to fishing-line sell-offs in their shares.

My preference is reviewing companies that have short-term PR issues, if I think there is legitimately something tangible to what they’ve found previously, and if I have confidence in their team to turn things around or build upon what they have.

I mentioned Orezone above because it really sticks out in my mind as a dramatic over-reaction by the marketplace a few years back when they realized their block model was wrong and their deposit was smaller than anticipated (initially). There were pissed off investors that exited at a loss and lots of gnashing of teeth…. which usually gets me intrigued. I want to know what is really going on? When I looked into Orezone, and read what the company stated and that they were being very honest about the miscalculation, but that there was plenty of drilling not included in that resource estimate that would bring it back up, that made a lot of sense to me, and I started buying into the carnage. It took about a year for Orezone to turn market perceptions back around, and then in one more year, they’ve become one of the stand out gold development projects in West Africa, and will likely be taken over by a big boy, or move the project into production. Investors must be patient with turn-around stories.

GT Gold is another one, exploring for Gold in BC’s Golden Triangle. They had some great discovery holes and a lot of excitement a few years back, the stock surged, and investors just knew it was going to the moon…. only it didn’t. The next set of drill results really let down the market’s expectations and hopium, and the stock was punished with a brutal selloff, followed by a consolidation period where it flatlined sideways for some time. Then the next drill season, I got positioned because I still felt something was there and the shares spiked back higher again in expectation, and I decided to sell before the news, and made a nice profit, but was glad I did as the expectations were again too high, and so the stock was slammed back down to the mat for a 2nd time, with many angry investors leaving for the next shiny object. However, if you look at what they’ve done over the last year 1/2 the’ve started connecting the dots with their previous exploration programs, they understand the deposit better, and they’ve been successful on recent exploration programs and the stock has moved higher and higher.

The point of the story is that with exploration companies, may investors are fickle and will stomp out of the room and slam the door if they don’t get bonanza grade drill results that constantly surpass the last ones. This is a stupid way to invest, and it is no wonder so many lose money in this sector approaching things in this manner.

Most companies that are successful now, or that found monster deposits, had their fair share of disappointments along the way, market sentiment turned against them, there were market hates (sometimes very powerful investors, funds, or short-selling operations), and there were several pops n drops along the journey, until it became more evident over time that there really was something significant there.

I have no idea if Nighthawk, Azimut, or Sokoman will be able to keep finding more gold or turn these into economic deposits, and neither does anyone else. However, as the saying goes…. “there is too much smoke not to be a fire.” With all 3 companies, they absolutely have found economic gold intercepts in prior drill campaigns, they appreciated up in a big way on investor expectations, and those expectations were far too pie-in-the-sky and they just came back down to Earth with the gravity of news updates. Investors bailed in all 3 companies in a big way, and I’ve been starting to buy into that carnage, because I see elements that remind me of what happened with Orezone and GT Gold in the past.

Could the bomb out from here? Sure they could.
Could they flounder around for 3-6 months as they regain investor confidence? Sure.
Could they have a lackluster season on their future work which is all still mid-way through for this year? Sure.
Conversely, could they still hit the motherlode on one of the ongoing drill campaigns? Sure
In a year or 2 could they have one of the more sought after deposits? Sure

Right now, all any of us know is that they have found gold, and high grade gold at that, and in some cases large intercepts. None of that changed as the stock sold off the last 2 weeks. There were expectations from hot money investors for larger resource sizes and better drill holes and when that didn’t play out, people scrambled for the exit doors creating a wave of selling. The question at this point, and at these prices is, can their teams continue working and developing these resources and grow them into an economic deposit that will be a takeover candidate and eventually a mine? That’s the rub and that’s the calculated risk people need to make in an advanced explorer.

If people want a company with a development project that will be a mine, there are dozens and dozens to pick from, but they are priced accordingly. If people want to take the guesswork out and just buy a company with a producing mine, there are plenty of companies like that to go and buy tomorrow, and I own my fair share. However, with exploration companies there is always the risk of the unknown, and therein lies the opportunity. I’ve taken a small punt on these 3 companies, but they are not a significant portion of my portfolio, and pale in size to developers like Pure Gold, Orezone, Minera Alamos, Alexco, Sabina, Lion One, Treasury, etc…. that clearly have found the goods. If over time they can continue delineating more ounces in the ground, better economics, and prove they can keep hitting more drill results like the initial ones that excited the markets the last 2 years, then I’ll press my bets and increase their position sizing.

I just didn’t want new folks or anyone to get the wrong impression about my earlier comments. I’m not suggesting to go buy, buy, buy any of these, and they may get stuck in the muck for a while until they can prove to the market things are still on track. I’ve just been watching them all from afar for a while now, and as a contrarian, like pouncing on deals when they present themselves, but often am very early (too early at times) in a companies turnaround. I was a bit too early in Americas Gold & Silver back when Scorpio Mining and US Gold & Silver merged, and it took them a while to prove to the market they could turn things around, and was too optimistic with Scorpio Gold back in late 2015 and early 2016, as it has taken them until now to get their act together…. but they are. I was a bit too early in Jaguar back in 2016, when they relaunched, but now they are finally getting their ship turned around. I was too early in Excellon when they started dewatering their Platosa mine, and now they have 4 projects going and they are still working off old and incorrect market perceptions. Sometimes these things take years to get sorted, but they move much quicker in a bull market than in bear or sideways markets. I realize this a long rant, but just felt like clarifying it may be a longer road still with Nighthawk, Azimut, and Sokoman, but they got my interest because they are like a good baseball player, that can clearly hit the ball, but are currently in a batting slump, and I believe they can pull out of that slump… eventually. If not I’ll sell them and move on to the next turnaround story.

Good luck to everyone in their investments and may they be prosperous.

Doc – of the 3 companies mentioned that got monkey hammered this week, Nighthawk is the most advanced at this point, but if you go back and look at the last 1-2 years of press releases for Azimut and Sokoman you can see why investors initially got excited, why their shares shot higher, and while this weeks release were not barn-burners, they are supporting data in a growing deposit at both companies. With most everything else levitating higher and higher, I’m looking for value arbitrages, and like it when a stock that was getting a bit ahead of itself puts out luke warm news and investors freak out and throw in the towel, opening up a doorway in for much better prices than just a week or two ago.

All of them are high risk exploration plays, but they did all find gold and expand their resource, but it just wasn’t enough or fast enough for some investors.
“One man’s trash is another mans treasure.”

Throw me some trash………..trash talking and all……LOL 🙂

OOTB

https://i.pinimg.com/236x/27/2a/78/272a789964dce938f06a348d6c666a4e–the-muppets-oscar-party.jpg

You got the right color at least….. green……is the way…. after GLD……. lol

This is political ……..but rich…….
https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/07/28/jims-mailbox-2567/

These are our leaders………..we are in real trouble……
I am buying a whole lot more gold…..

Lord help us Jerry! CooCoo for Cocopuffs!

Ditto Charles……more people should watch this……Really sad, that we have idiots running the govt….

I don’t think Doc ever wasted a bandaid

Very good explanation above. What I did following recent LIO news was move 10% of Azimut to LIO. Just my way of dealing current info. As EX knows, I sold my Sokoman but that was out of frustration of holding it for years and seeing good drill results but nothing happening. But, I shouldn’t have expected movement except in those brief up moves. Anyway…

FWIW: when I sold the Sokoman, I bought Maritime which was in the same area in Canada. It is up 24.58% at the moment but I have seen nothing on it yet. Weird.

Maritime had good drill results reported on 27th.

Maritime: Also put out good drill results on July 15th. Short widths but good grades.