(ROXG) (ROGFF) Roxgold Produces 32,812 Ounces in Second Quarter; Guidance Maintained

by @businesswire on 8 Jul 2020

– Produced 32,812 ounces of gold at an average grade of 8.2 grams per tonne in Q2, totalling 65,192 ounces produced for the year to date
– Reported quarterly plant throughput of 1,399 tonnes per day for a total of 127,309 tonnes which exceeded increased nameplate capacity of 1,100 tpd by approximately 27%
– Maintained upper end of annual gold production guidance at 120,000 and 130,000 ounces subject to existing operating conditions being maintained
– Continued operations with management and mitigation of COVID-19 with no new infections at site
– Advanced Séguéla infill and infrastructure drilling to support Feasibility Study which is on track for early 2021

https://ceo.ca/@businesswire/roxgold-produces-32812-ounces-in-second-quarter-guidance

There are other Developers that are not as popular, but represent far better value that many of the herd stocks investors have piled into pushing them up to lofty valuations.

Look at some of the valuations on those Gold developers above and then contrast that against a company like Triumph Gold (TIG), with 2 Million ounces of Gold equivalent indicated, and 3 million inferred for a total of 5 Million ounces of Gold equivalent (with amazingly strong Copper credits), and partners with Newmont who owns 18% of them, but they are trading at the paltry valuation of a $30 Million market cap (??)

They have a larger resource than Skeena, Tudor, or what is know about Great Bear, and they are trading at 1/10th to 1/20th of their valuation. That’s a big disconnect and there are PLENTY of other examples just like that.

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(TIG) (TIGCF) Triumph Gold – Corporate Presentation July 2020

https://www.triumphgoldcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/CorporatePresentation.pdf

Well maybe things are about to change. There was a few big blocks on Friday. Hopefully it was all that was holding it down.

Wolfster – Yes great point about the massive volume on Friday in (TIG) Triumph Gold. I was adding to Triumph yesterday myself 🙂

The average daily trading volume is 144.557 and on Friday 2,542,809 shares traded 17.5 times the normal volume. Obviously there are buyers that see value.

Excelsior,
Are there any junior gold/ silver stocks that you would buy now or add during the pullback?

Hi pyrite,

I bought most of my Gold and Silver positions in the past, and added aggressively in August 2018, Dec 2018, mid-2019, and just blew out all the dry powder (and then some) that I had in mid-March through April, so I’m not personally doing a bunch of buying at these current levels, but have added to a few companies the last few weeks.

I’m more bullish on the Silver stocks at present, because Silver still has a lot of catching up to do versus Gold, and many of the Gold stocks have already run really hard coming out the precious metals sector low on March 16. As mentioned further down in this thread, there is likely still some upside in the gold stocks, but they are starting to get more frothy and overbought than they were a few months back, so I’m looking to where I’ll start trimming some back over the next few weeks to a month.

If you don’t have any positions at all, then there is nothing wrong with putting in place a partial position of about 25%-40% now, and then waiting for a pullback to add more and establish a lower cost basis. That way if the stocks continue running you have an iron in the fire, but if they only run a bit longer and then correct, you haven’t used up all you cash and can buy any dips.

As for which ones, I have dozens of gold mining stocks about 19 Silver stocks, and there are plenty of others I like beyond the ones I hold. Most companies are doing well, but if it were me adding new positions, I’d be trying to position some money in cashed up companies with exploration underway and drill results coming out over the next 1-2 months, quality developers that are having their ounces in the ground rerated higher along with better economics for their projects, and producers that have either great margins or margins that are improving the most as the metals prices rise.

Good luck to you in your investments and may they be prosperous!

BPGDM may be able to stay elevated at 100 for a bit longer while Gold moves to $1840-$1880, but at one point soon, it will correct down in a mining stock sector pullback. It clearly is buried in an overbought reading at present.

The time to be buying the miners bigly was in March-April of this year, and those that did have have fantastic returns, but things are getting over-cooked in the short term. Medium to longer term they have much higher to run of course as this bull is still quite strong and only mid-cycle at this point.

I’m just trimming some of the runaway stocks to keep raising cash to deploy when the corrective move comes and then ride it up the next leg higher. That next leg is the one I believe where gold will take it’s all time high of $1923, and Silver will finally take out the 2016 surge high of $21.23.

I was close to my July 2016 high in Feb 2020. Then proceeded to achieve my all time low in Mar 2020. Now I am back to where I was in 2011. So in summary I have not gone anywhere in 9 years except pay out taxes, birthday and xmases and house repairs. So I guess I am up. What I always fear are these 100% retracements like the second half of 2016. This time I would like the opportunity to double, triple or more the 2011 levels like the general markets have done, funded by the Fed (tax payers). I am hoping they can’t keep us down as they have totally destroyed everything fiat.

My retirement account is full of boring mutual funds and bonds but has been chugging higher and higher with general markets for years with the highest levels in many components ever.

My trading account filled with more volatile resource and energy stocks has never been higher, granted I have added some funds to it over time. However, similar to what you mentioned, in March of this year it was at it’s lowest levels in many years, but now ratcheted up the highest levels on record. The last 4 months have been truly transformative in this account, but I added funds in March, and have done about 175 trades since the end of February and have been quite active in managing it with more time stuck inside paired with the amazing rebound in the PM sector since mid-March.

I don’t expect anything close to the kind of retracement we saw from the 2016 surge highs, and if there is a corrective move I expect it to be more shallow and brief, before the metals and miners begin their next advance, and it will be a buying opportunity.

Good luck to everyone in their investing and trading in the days, weeks, months, and years to come. Ever Upward!

David, you’re not alone. I have been holding a set of miners in an account which has only now came back up to breakeven. Some of the ones from back in 2010 and 2011 had been crushed and have still really done nothing for me. Their current values aren’t even worth selling them. I hope that when the PM market kicks into high gear, then they’ll float up like the rest.

thanks for your perspective amigo.

Yes, I’m quite familiar the old investing adage of stocks “climbing the wall of worry in bull markets” and the “bull shaking off as many riders as possible on the way up” and have posted those same statements dozens of times here at the KER over the years.

As mentioned above “BPGDM may be be able to stay elevated at 100 for bit longer” however it rarely gets to a reading like that and the last time it did was 4 years ago in July of 2016 right before the miners topped.

It’s a tool we’ve discussed on here a number of times as confirming breath (and also sentiment) indicator at both tops and bottoms.

Here is a bit more information about it for those not familiar with it:

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“The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) is a gauge of overbought and oversold conditions for the gold mining sector. It is a breadth indicator based on the number of stocks with Point & Figure buy signals (a Point & Figure chart emphasizes strong moves while ignoring small ones) within this index.”

“The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index’s range varies between 0 and 100. Generally, a reading below 30 indicates oversold conditions in the gold mining stocks sector, and a reading above 70 indicates overbought conditions. This indicator is used as a tool to decide when to buy or sell gold mining stocks, but since gold stocks very often move in tune with gold or silver, it can be a useful tool when determining the direction of the entire precious metals sector. The index can be used in conjunction with a gold price chart, or multiple other tools, to watch for additional confirmations of a trend.”

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/gold-miners-bullish-percent-index/

Glen,
I believe you are looking at things correctly and currently it is probably better to focus on buying good pullbacks rather than trimming/selling for fear of a decline.

The BPGDM peaked about a month before the XAU and HUI topped in 2010 (Nov 9 vs Dec 6). In addition, a BPGDM reversal signal needs at least a 6 point pullback and a reversal does not automatically mean that the buy signal has been reversed.

The fact is, hitting 100% is a good/bullish thing overall since it means that 100% of GDM’s components are on P&F buy signals (bull market breadth). It never hit 100 prior to 2016 (2010/11 highs) and if the BPGDM existed during the early stages of the last bull market about 20 years ago, I bet it would have showed action that we have never seen before, like remaining elevated for extended periods while the miners fly higher. The corrective action of the last two days bullishly only knocked it back to 96.43.

Sentiment tools are great but should not be the reason we exit or enter a trade.
Example:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2018-07-09&en=2020-07-01&id=p86662909187&a=682393066

It is safe to assume that few sentiment indicators accurately measure the “froth” present among the retail crowd and the BPGDM might be one of the worst. I need to research it more but I think $GDXHLP might be better.

Matt,

Exactly! Your better off than me at expressing my point. Even Gary mentioned this the other day in regards to intermediate bullish advances almost always remain extended and overnight.. This tends to be the place we’re the people with most patience get rewarded.. This is something I’ve had to learn over many years and something I did learn from you as well. But if you follow the most important indicators closely combined with gold price action, hui and other factors, add in cycle length of time and you can see so far these corrections are buying opportunity’s.

Overnight=Overbought lol

I mentioned the pullback would be a buying opportunity.

Glenfidish, you mentioned you felt when Gold corrected it would be heading much lower, and that you “believe it will be scary”. I didn’t get the impression from that you felt this would just be buying a good pullback.

Glen – How “scary” do you think the pullback will be when gold puts in it’s top that you see and starts heading lower? Do you have any downside targets?

The pullback would be a buying opportunity?
“Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index hitting 100 is cause for concern that an intermediate top in the miners could be forming.”

It seems we have two messages here.

Yes, for those that can read there are two messages. I also wrote this:

“I’m just trimming some of the runaway stocks to keep raising cash to deploy when the corrective move comes and then ride it up the next leg higher.”

1) trim when things are overbought
2) buy when they pullback

It isn’t rocket science.

I also wrote this down below when Glen stated he expected once Gold topped for it’s correction to be scary:

“I’m not expecting the pullback to be scary, as there are too many fundamental drivers that are bullish for Precious Metals, and I still expect Silver to keep ratcheting higher after taking a breather. I’m just looking for a normal and healthy corrective move that washes out this euphoria sentiment, and provides a base to build the next leg higher off of.”

You can scoff at the BPGDM indicator and say it’s one of the worst sentiment indicators all you want Matthew, but I’ve used it as a tool at both tops and bottoms, and while it may show overbought or oversold for a while before the tide turns, it has been a helpful tool for me (and many other investors) as a general guide and confirming indicator (that should be used in conjunction with others) for when to be buying bottoms and selling tops.

I simply shared the info on the BPGDM hitting the rarefied air of 100 and the article from Przemysław Radomski, which makes the same point as point, to bring some awareness of how overbought many mining stock charts have become since ripping higher since the March lows. I’m not a perma bull and don’t always think it is time to buy, buy, buy. The time to be adding to mining stocks was in March and April, and in my observation it isn’t a bad idea to consider trimming back some stocks that have had outsized gains over the last 4 months to lock in profits. If the miners do then correct back down, then it would time to redeploy those profits at a lower price, as I still believe we are in a bull market.

@Excelsior – August 19, 2018

“$BPGDM looking fugly…. but is also at oversold levels where a reversal is due in short order. ”

“This makes a rally in the miners look even more imminent.”

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The GDX bottomed 2 weeks later and has moved up steadily ever since that low reading.

You know what else is not rocket science? Answer: The difference between a pullback/buying opportunity and an intermediate term correction.

It seems you think the two will be the same this time, hence the “trimming” talk rather than selling. Or maybe real selling isn’t something you do. Most don’t.

Glen can correct me if I’m wrong but I think he sees no more than “buyable” pullbacks for now and a scary intermediate term correction later (as do I).

You have never used the BPGDM at this stage of a bull market before and all the verbiage in the world can change that.
Radomski is one of the worst guys to pay any attention to and might have THE worst record.

Matthew I love how you continually think you know more about what I’ve done, than me.

I used the BPGDM indicator back in the summer of 2016 as part of the rationale to be trimming back winnings, and many thought I was selling far too early then and held onto full positions as they corrected down the balance of that year. As posted above, I used the low reading in BPGDM in August of 2018 saying that things were far to oversold and there was an upturn in the miners imminent — and there was.

Again, ignore the indicator or make fun of it all you want. I didn’t create it, and simply use it as one of many confirming tools. The miners are overbought, and I’ve already stated in a bull market that they can stay overbought longer than usual, but the reading are frothy and the sentiment from investors is getting euphoric. In my experience that is a good time to start banking a few profits, and most of the miners are up 100-500% so those a nice gains in a partial position.

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As for what Glen has said, he’s repeatedly written that he felt Gold would get up to $1820-$1840 and then correct, but recently adjusted that window up to $1840-$1880. Now he is saying that his upside target is not $1881-$1884, so it’s a bit confusing keeping up with where he thinks this move will top.
Glen just wrote this down below on this weekend’s blog:

“Peak comes in imo in the 4-6 week mark. I have my own number which is not $1881-$1884 ex, but I would say that would be a really smart area to unload a good chunk of your trading chips.”

“Your correct wolf a correction will come, but first I need to see how gold reacts at the $1840-1880 region in combination with my miners. Than I think I will have a clearer picture of how steep this drop will be. Something I have spoken to Matt about. The tricky part is always trying to figure out if this correction will be “more” significant. I’ve put myself out there already and I believe we are headed lower when we get there.”

“The correction is coming I agree.. i also believe it will be scary. I’m one of very few if not the only thinking this scary.”
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I asked Glen the following to clarify precisely what he is saying about the correction.

Glen – How “scary” do you think the pullback will be when gold puts in it’s top that you see and starts heading lower? Do you have any downside targets?

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As for what I stated 2 weeks ago, and last week, and on Friday, I just think it will be a normal corrective move, and have stated previously on here a few times that I’d be looking at a 23.6% or 38.2% Fib retracement from the $1671.70 level to whereever Gold corrects from in the mid to high $1800s.

I said: “Sentiment tools are great but should not be the reason we exit or enter a trade.”

That’s a fact if you know what you are doing with your charts. I did not “make fun” of the tool.

Sorry but you have no way of knowing how “frothy” sentiment is based on the fact that 100% of GDM components were on P&F buy signals. At this stage of a real bull market in the miners (most of the last bull market was not real as the miners underperformed gold overall most of the time), an extremely elevated number of senior gold stocks can remain on such buy signals for much longer than you think. Again, your wonderful experience with the BPGDM does not include this part of a bull market.

Has it not occurred to you that the tool would be much more likely to work during bear market counter-trend moves or 2016 type moves that are destined to give almost everything back? If it hasn’t occurred to you, then maybe you don’t understand all that you think you do. Be offended (again) if you wish but the assertion is warranted.

As for what you said two weeks ago, calling a corrective move “normal” isn’t helpful but your targets are and I bet they are optimistic. A “normal” correction from 1880 would include targets near 1600, 1550 and even lower. The question is which it will be.

I think the high is where you and Glen agree. I think gold will probably go higher before putting in an intermediate top and I also think it could/should easily happen by mid August. The summer doldrums crowd will scramble back in under FOMO distress only to play bagholder until around Christmas when most give up and sell at a loss.

The BPGDM is a tool and it works in all markets bullish or bearish. The readings can stay more extended in extreme bear or bull markets like any indicator, but I’ve already stated that a number of times, so I’m not sure why you keep beating a dead horse about that. (?) I’m in agreement the indicators can stay overbought longer than most expect, and stated that myself several times just this weekend.

The extreme readings worked just fine marking a low back in Dec 2015 (when things were really bearish), in the summer of 2016 when things were overly bullish, in late August of 2018 when things were overly bearish, and it will work just fine now in July 2020 when things are overly bullish once again. If 100% of the companies are a buy on the point and figure chart then everyone is all on one side of the boat, so staying 100% long here is not a contrarian position, but trimming some into the strength is.

Look, if the miners run for a few more weeks great. I hope they do as I haven’t trimmed back everything I want to and do so from higher prices will not hurt my feelings. If I end up trimming some back just a little bit early, who cares….

I’d rather catch the meat of the move higher, and reduce down position sizes to get a bit more defensive when people are 100% bullish on all gold miners. I won’t be exiting the entire positions anyway, and am not expecting a long protracted correction like Glen seems to be, but a mild pullback that may move sideways for for 4-6 weeks. I’m saying in the short term things are getting a bit overcooked, and I believe we’ll see better prices to buy them back in a month or so.

There are some stocks awaiting drilling news that I won’t be exiting until that news comes out, to see what they find, so I’m not touching those kinds of exploration stocks, more so the developers and producers that have really run hard since the March lows.
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I don’t think a “normal” bull market correction in Gold would take it down anywhere close to $1600 or $1550 and that is not what I’m expecting at all, and certainly not what I was implying.

I stated that I’d be looking at a 23.6% or 38.2% Fib retracement from the $1671.70 level to wherever Gold corrects from in the mid to high $1800s. Let’s say for example gold gets to $1880 and then starts to correct. A 23.6% retracement of the move from $1671.70 to there would be back to $1830.84, and 38.2% retracement would be back down to $1800.47. That’s all I’m saying and then I’d reload there in the miners after sentiment and pricing cools off a bit.

I’ve already said a half dozen times for the last few weeks that I believed we’d get up into the mid to high $1800’s, then have a healthy corrective move where gold would build a new base and gather the energy to make another move higher at taking at the all time high of $1923 later this year, with an initial target of $1935.

Hopefully that clears up any misconceptions about what I meant or have said repeatedly.

At this point nobody has any idea of whether Gold will even make it up to $1840 or $1880 before correcting, so until we see where Gold actually puts in a peak, then it is all hyperbole.

My only point was a simple one. With the BPGDM flashing 100 last week, it is a warning bell when 100% of gold stocks are a buy, to start paying attention to the overly bullish and frothy sentiment. I’m not saying sell everything tomorrow, or that the miners can’t go even higher for a few weeks. I’m saying I’m trimming back some of the bigger winners as paying attention to this indicator has served me well a number of times at critical turns in the past. I’ll be looking for more bullish strength to sell into over the next few weeks and believe there were be a better buying opportunity again in many names after things cool off a little bit. That’s it.

Re: “The extreme readings worked just fine marking a low back in Dec 2015 (when things were really bearish), in the summer of 2016 when things were overly bullish, in late August of 2018 when things were overly bearish, and it will work just fine now in July 2020 when things are overly bullish once again.”

You completely missed my point. We are all well aware of what the tool did in those moves but none of us has seen it in action during the part of the cycle we are in right now because the tool didn’t exist 20 years ago let alone 40+ years ago.

Re: “If 100% of the companies are a buy on the point and figure chart then everyone is all on one side of the boat, so staying 100% long here is not a contrarian position, but trimming some into the strength is.”

Close enough during counter-trend moves but absolutely not necessarily correct during a true bull market. Smarter/bigger money will easily put the whole sector on P&F buy signals without any participation from the dumb-money majority. How is this not obvious to you?

I stand by my claim that it is more appropriate to add to positions here than to trim them (on NET, of course, individual stocks can present completely different situations).
I remain more than 100% long.

The BPGDM can come off a lot from its current level without marking a significant top. Likewise, it can be much lower than its recent 100 when it DOES mark a major top. If that’s good enough for you, cool!

Re: “At this point nobody has any idea of whether Gold will even make it up to $1840 or $1880 before correcting, so until we see where Gold actually puts in a peak, then it is all hyperbole.”

Nobody knows for sure but some people have a better idea than others. In addition, the BPGDM is about the miners, not gold, and they can move up significantly while gold does little to nothing, especially under the current circumstances. So if gold takes until mid August to reach something like 1880, there’s no telling how much higher the miners will be. It could be 5% but it could also be 30% based on the looks of silver (the recognition by the herd that this will be an inflationary bull market).

I’ve also been more than 100% deployed (since I’ve had many bought on margin) since March and will be lightening up some.

Yes, I agree that when big money comes into the sector it puts everything on a P&F buy signal, which is pricely what has been happening the last few months. There has been uncharacteristically massive volume inflows in so many stocks and this is not all dumb money coming it, but rather some of the family funds, hedgefunds, and institutions.

Again, I don’t disagree that the miners can keep running higher here even if gold stalls or just meanders higher, and as they do I’ll be lightening up on them.

Yes Matthew, I’m aware that the BPGDM is about miners – no need to be patronizing. The gold and silver miners tend to track the movements in the metals, so when the metals put in short-term tops & bottoms those trends synch up in the miners overall (of course there are short-duration divergences from time to time).

If the miners go up another 5-30% as a group then great, as I’ll still have my core positions in place as I trim into that coming strength. I may be leaving a little money on the table as I trim some positions back by 20-50% over the next few weeks, but I’ll know I have the cash to deploy when the stocks pull back (which most don’t and go all in and hold on as things correct down and don’t have any ammo left to fire off).

As long as I catch the majority of the move, which I have at this point, then personally I’m thrilled.

Good points on the tax ramification of short-term vs long-term (more than 2 years) holds. Yes, having a few carryover losses can help minimize this, but ultimately if the gains are large enough, then it’s worth the tax implications. I have a buddy that’s said since I’ve know him that he wants to pay millions in taxes every year, because it means he’s done pretty good in business. 🙂

Thanks for expanding on your outlook Glenfidish, and yes, you have me pegged correctly – I am actually a more conservative investor by nature. I like to get in early when assets are just about to turn up or in the process of turning up, and then after that have been out-sized gains start the process of fading out of them in tranches. This approach has served me well all these years, when many others overstayed their welcome, being greedy for more gains, and then so many got stuck holding the bags when corrections came.

There are still some folks here sharing stories of how they are still hanging onto mining positions they had from back in 2011, so the biggest issue I see most investor having is buying into weakness and then selling into strength. I’d just rather get in, make big gains and get out, but I often leave an iron or two in the fire in each position in case the miners keep on running. As long as I catch the majority of the move, then I’m a happy camper. My weakness is occasionally trimming a bit too early, but I’ve never blown up my account doing that. 😉

Again, I agree that the indicators can stay overbought for longer in bull markets, and as mentioned above, I hope that the miners do continue to keep running because I’d rather sell them into solid strength than watch them start turning down.

My only point with the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index flashing 100 was that it is rare, and obviously excessively bullish and overbought. Can it stay like that for a few more weeks. Sure it can, and I hope it does for everyone invested including me, as I’m not liquidating all my positions, just trimming the hedges back a bit. 🙂

Cheers and may your investments be prosperous.

Ex, I have to point out that your way and the “greedy” way are not the only two ways. Some people are good at wringing out the bulk of a move without greed and without overstaying their welcome.

Thanks for pointing that out Matthew. On certain runs an investor may wring out the bulk of a move, but not every time, and very, very, few can do that even a few times.

The whole reason there is a term “bagholder” is because so many investors don’t know when to sell, and get caught stuck in a position – even technicians that know how to read a chart. Different TA approaches prove more effective on different runs and then many not be as effective on the next run. Sometimes Elliot Wave works and sometimes is way off. Sometimes Japanese candlestick patterns nail a top or bottom, and other times the pattern doesn’t play out. Some time Schiff Forks are instructive, and other times price movement moves right through them without much correlation. Nothing is 100% accurate, and the best traders are only right about 60% of the time.

I know I’ve been on the wrong side of many trades, and held onto positions that corrected down my fair share in the past, but I just do that much less than I used to, and I’m sure it’s happened to you as well over the last few years.

I wonder many people actually “wrung all the value” out of the surge higher in 2016 and sold out of everything at that peak? Likely zero. I was aggressively buying in late 2015 tax loss and early 2016 when most were not, as I know you were and few others were, but I sure didn’t sell everything at the peak in July/August. However, by using the oversold indicators (with full understanding that they can stay overbought longer than folks expect) I at least was trimming back then in July and August and was quite vocal about taking some winnings off the table then. It is very much in my top of mind awareness at times like these, because I took a lot of shit from people over it, with them saying I was way too early and the bull was just getting started. My only regret was not selling more at that time, and I was right to exercise caution then.

I’ve also been pretty damn accurate in catching the bottoms and knowing when it is time to aggressively buy when so many are giving up in despair. I was banging on the drum in August of 2018 and again in December of 2018, and those were the times to buy. I was one of the few people on here pointing out what a great buying opportunity it was in the grossly oversold markets in mid-March, and in real time mentioned I was deploying all the dry powder I could and even taking money out of deep savings to deploy. None of that was “after the fact.” Most of the respected pundits and experts that came on here or on other sites were advising moving to cash and waiting it out, which was the exact opposite of what they should have been doing.

As a result of buying when things were very oversold I’ve had phenomenal gains in most of the those positions and my account has never been higher, but my experience and the info on the charts shows very overbought conditions right now, and I’m saying is people would be wise to at least start considering what is their strategy and exit plan before the next corrective move? What is their goal for the positions they have in place and when will they have made enough to have had a successful trade where they can at least take some (not all) of their chips off the table.

All over the stock forums there are people celebrating and giving themselves high fives on the massive runs most mining stock have been on over at ceo, at stockhouse, on hotcopper, in the comments at Seeking Alpha, and it is definitely starting to get more euphoric in the sentiment. When that is confirmed by chart indicators like the BPGDM hitting 100 (which is extremely rare in it’s 20 year existance), or RSI and Slow Stochastics buried in the 80-100 range, then it seems quite unwise to dismiss those and go along just to get along with the herd, because it is a bull market. I’m sure there is some action left in this particular leg higher in the metals and the miners, and I’ll do my best to wring as much out of the next few weeks as possible, and I don’t expect a terrible correction, because I expect the dip to be bought and for Gold to make a move at the all time high of $1923 this year. After that, then sure, a more meaningful correction may play through for a while. That is not the kind of correction I was talking about though. My point that with things this overcooked, we may see a mild correction when Gold gets up in the mid $1800s (which it just was at last week), and already pointed out Gary Wagners $1880 target last week as a reasonable resistance level for it.

I know you and Glen are not folks that go with the herd, and do your own research and have your own methods, and if you both believe there is still a lot of room left to run, then that is worth considering. Despite our differences of opinions, I respect both of your points of view, but certainly don’t believe that you or Glen always wrings the bulk of the move. Everyone is caught on the wrong side of trade or a chart from time to time, and a nobody nails every move from bottom to top, and I never claimed to either. Having said that, I deployed everything I could at the bottom in mid-March and knew it was the time to be buying and was spot on about that. As to when to sell, that is always the more difficult part of the equation, but I’ll feel no shame in booking fantastic profits whenever I decide to trim some of the big runners back. If I don’t wring every single cent out of each stock then so be it.

I’ll add that I’m more bullish on the Silver miners at this point than the Gold miners, because Silver looks like it has more room to run and the miners are more undervalued.

Also even though I stated this up above, let me restate, that with the Exploration stocks with drill results pending, those can go up in any market, and I’m not really planning to trim those back until they put out their news from this years exploration campaigns and it gets digested by the marketplace.

With gold prices this high and silver prices rising, then I expect those kind of drill plays to continue to do well if they deliver, regardless of the macro backdrop in the sector.

I can’t begin to address all that’s wrong with your comments so I’ll address just these two:

“Some time Schiff Forks are instructive, and other times price movement moves right through them without much correlation. Nothing is 100% accurate, and the best traders are only right about 60% of the time.”

First, you do not understand pitchforks of any kind, not just the Schiff. They are meant to identify trend slopes and even when they do so very well, it is no problem when price eventually breaks out. I am not going to explain.

Second, the best traders don’t act on predictions. They maximize opportunity while minimizing risk.

I never said traders act on predictions and am well aware the point of TA is maximize opportunity and minimize risk. That was as generic as it was obvious.

You conveniently never address 90% of the points I respond with, and like to cherry pick one or 2 small nitpicky areas in a pompous or snarky response back, and rarely take the time to point out the areas you agree with or even have a normal discussion.

Matthew, sorry dude, I don’t believe you wring all the value out of moves all the time, and yes, there have been tons of studies done that best traders are only right about 60% of the time, and many funds and traders can’t even beat the underlying indexes. Some technicians do better by looking for good risk/reward probabilities, but none of them nail every move including you, so get off your high horse already.

The irony that’s lost on you is that you’re the one that thinks he has all the answers. My stance is not that I know it all but merely that you do not.

You’re an honest and nice guy of (I believe) very good character but the countless ways that you could be wrong never seem to dawn on you. You’ve got a story for everything that happens or doesn’t happen in the market and I can spot enough errors in them to call everything else into question. Like your non-example example about the Schiff fork. You’re BS-ing (not the same as lying but related). As for your studies about the best traders being right 60% of the time, so what? To borrow from Bob Moriarty, even if that is perfectly true, it is perfectly meaningless. You need a study that shows how good the best traders are at wringing returns from the trades that don’t get stopped out or, better yet, how well they play/stick-with/wring out a big trend, failed trades and all. So you have a logic problem in addition to a BS-ing one.

For the record, I never said that I wring all the value out of every or even most trades but I have said more than once that I an wrong all the time. Sorry dude.

Matthew you are too much sometimes. I just got done stating that I make mistakes all the time, and never said I had all the answers, and don’t troll you around trying to point out who is wrong or right, or taking umbrage with the smallest passage, while missing the entire point of what is being written.

It is you that the irony is lost on constantly telling others that they are wrong or acting like your definitions of words or interpretations of others is the right way to look at things. Who the hell made you the judge of truth and what is right or what is or is not BS. Get over yourself and your myopic view of truth.

You rarely have a real conversation agreeing on some points, addressing the main part of the dialogue, and more often than not you are just looking for small areas to be argumentative, and inflate them into the conversation being had (cutting out all the context around them).

As a refresher, I was responding back to Glenfidish and you felt the need (in your all knowing way) to point out “Some people are good at wringing out the bulk of a move without greed and without overstaying their welcome.”

To quote Bob M right back at you on that, “even if that is perfectly true, it is perfectly meaningless.”

Since you felt the need to bring it up it sure seemed like you were implying that was your (superior) method, since you just had to make a distinction between the method I was describing, and the greedy method of overstaying their welcome and becoming bagholders like so many investors do.

I responded back “On certain runs an investor may wring out the bulk of a move, but not every time, and very, very, few can do that even a few times.”

“The whole reason there is a term “bagholder” is because so many investors don’t know when to sell, and get caught stuck in a position – even technicians that know how to read a chart.”

You often lecture me on what you think I think, what you think I understand, or what you think I did, and get it 100% backwards and mixed up, but I don’t tell you how wrong you are, but instead take the time to respond back and clarify my position.

You skip over 90% of the meat of the point, to ridicule someone over some point you disagree with, and throw the whole statement out as BS, in your blind arrogance. Then you have the audacity to lecture me on what studies I should be conducting about these mythical traders that are “wringing returns from the trades that don’t get stopped out or, better yet, how well they play/stick-with/wring out a big trend.” Then you go on to insult and say it is me that has the logic problem. Again who the fork made you the king and judge of what is or is not rational thought.

Thanks, for your opinions, but there are no problems with studies I brought up, and there is once again the air of condescending superiority in almost every thought you wish to convey, and you act like everyone is stupid but you have all the answers. You don’t have a stranglehold on truth and logic Matthew.

This is tiring, and I’m done trying to have a discussion with you on this, because you don’t really want to have a discussion – you just want to argue and take swipes, and have been doing this for weeks now with me, ever since I said Brixton has exploration ADD and a lack of strategy the last 4 years, and you got your panties in a bunch over it. Good luck to you and your opinions on what is true and logical.

Hey Glenfidish. I agree that from time to time, pulling some chips off the table and booking profits is a wise thing to do (otherwise they are just paper profits and not real, and they can evaporate as quickly as they were made).

Some individual stocks may very well keep running (especially if Gold gets up to the $1840-$1880 area before correcting), but with the Bullish Miners Percentage Index flashing 100 that is showing how overbought these PM miners are as a group.

I’m not expecting the bullback to be scary, as there are too many fundamental drivers that are bullish for Precious Metals, and I still expect Silver to keep ratcheting higher after taking a breather. I’m just looking for a normal and healthy corrective move that washes out this euphoria sentiment, and provides a base to build the next leg higher off of.

The Remarkable Gold Index Sign Vs. the Miners’ Strength

Przemysław Radomski – Jul 09, 2020

“The take-away is the long-term turning point is a big deal, and gold could fall significantly before it soars due to extremely positive fundamental outlook.”

“The only other case when the index was at 100, was in mid-2016. We marked this situation with a vertical dashed line. Did miners continue to move higher for a long time, or did they move much higher? No.”

“Precisely, the index reached 100 on July 1st 2016, and gold mining stocks moved higher for two additional trading days. Then they topped. This was not the final top, but the second top took miners only about 5% above the initial July high.”

“This year, the index reached the 100 level on July 2nd – almost exactly 4 years later, and once again practically exactly in the middle of the year. Yesterday was the third day after this move. It’s not justified to assume that the delay in the exact top would be 100% identical, but it seems justified to view it as similar.”

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/the-remarkable-gold-index-sign-vs-the-miners-strength-660166

While the set up in PMs or the macro economic backdrop today is not anything like what it was in 2016, that Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index (BPGDM) hitting 100 is cause for concern that an intermediate top in the miners could be forming.

Something to keep an eye on and be aware of.

Climbing the Wall of scary…..and rightfully so…..
More stimulus on the way….the elites love it….sheeple are getting fleeced and they like it.
Demwhits on politics , are driving the economy into the ground, but, wait ….what economy, been all speculation for years…..
GOLD GOING HIGHER……and a LOT HIGHER…..with some pull back…….JMO

Ex…………ditto”’…. I’m just looking for a normal and healthy corrective move that washes out this euphoria sentiment, and provides a base to build the next leg higher off of.
Pause……in the action……then look out…..
As long a the FED IS PRINTING…….Up she goes…..long term…..

Bingo OOTB. Agreed.

(CD) (CTXDF) Cantex Announces 48 Gold and Base Metal Discoveries on North Rackla Claims in the Yukon
by @newswire on 9 Jul 2020

https://ceo.ca/@newswire/cantex-announces-48-gold-and-base-metal-discoveries

I meant to buy into Cantex after it had that great run and then retraced, there is so much of interest out there that you can’t love them all, Fipke is a winner with a huge following. DT

As for Cantex I was vocal over at ceo.ca that the valuation that it had reached last year at over $7 a share and $300 Million market cap on just a few discovery holes, before most of the lion’s share of the drilling was even reported, had gotten a bit ridiculous.
_____________________________________________________

@Excelsior 21 Aug 2019, 22:46 pm

“Wow! I did not realize until watching the video above with Joe Mazumdar on BNN just how much (CD) Cantex Mine Development was up 2,000%+ this year. Gotta love a speculative fervor!”

“To put things in perspective (CD) Cantex is a #Silver #Zinc #Lead #explorer that has a Market Cap of over $305 million !!”

“(USAS) Americas Silver is a #Silver #Zinc #Lead #producer with 2 large mines already in #production, and newly acquired #Gold asset, from the takeover of Pershing, going into construction with a short ramp to Production as mine #3. It only has a Market Cap of $254 Million.”

“(TV) Trevali Mining Corp is a #Zinc #Lead #Silver #producer with 4 operating mines with a Market Cap only half of Cantex at $155 Million.”
_________________________________________________________

DT – I bought into Cantex last December and this January and have a cost basis of $.86, but it is not a big part of my portfolio and more of a drill play lottery ticket for me. 🙂

I agree with you that Fipke is a winner and well-respected in the mining space with a large following. Now Cantex is actually doing the exploration work to deserve a share price appreciation from these far lower levels.

Here’s what I posted earlier in the year:

__________________________________________

@Excelsior – 20 Jan 2020, 15:30

“No my $CD position is only about 1.5% of my portfolio, and I just bought 2 smaller tranches over the last 2 months, so my cost basis is around $.86 (which is underwater at present, but I picked it up for the work they do in 2020 as a drill play).”

“It just seemed odd that it has gone below where it was pre-discovery, since they did at least drill up some interesting Zinc/Lead/Silver holes last year and have a better understanding of the geology now, than they did before the huge run up in share price. Also, in their most recent press release it mentioned there were still a few assays pending, so it seems unusual to sell off so hard in front of them being released during a period of no news.”

_____________________________________________

…. and now the gradual share appreciation has started as they do work in 2020. We’ll see how it goes but it is still early days and compared to where it reached last year with far less known.

Ever Upward!

Clarify: Ex in Top 10

Oh, haha! I misread your initial statement and thought you were saying you were in the top 10. Yeah, I see that now due to the big VZLA surge. Thanks David.

I guess to get an edge on the other Vizsla pickers, I’ll need Precipitate Gold to wake up a bit on good exploration work, and Trevali will need to get it’s financial picture cleared up as Zinc/Lead/Silver prices move higher. We’ll see how it goes…

I see what was holding back Precipitate Gold (PRG) was that for the last 2 months Strategic metals was taking their investment position from 21% to 19% to raise funds. Now that they’ve wrapped that up, and things are moving along with permitting in the D.R., then Precipitate should get a bit more traction now.

_____________________________________

(PRG) (PREIF) Precipitate Gold – Corporate Presentation July 2020

https://www.precipitategold.com/assets/docs/2020_07_01_PRG_Corp_Presentation-1593560174.pdf

Silver Is At A Critical Point Based On US Dollar Action

Herbert Moolman / 4 hours ago

“Betting on a silver rally when the US Dollar index is in decline makes for great odds. There have been two significant Silver rallies in the last 50 years (marked out with rectangles on the chart below). During both of these, the US dollar index was in serious decline.”

“Below, is an updated chart previously featured:”

https://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/2020/07/13/silver-is-at-a-critical-point-based-on-us-dollar-action/

Silver futures at $19.65 – just a dime away from last years high of $19.75. It would be nice to see a close above that level today.

Well when markets opened gold was up around 1% and silver was up over 3%(around .67 higher) and if any thing volumes are lower than usual ….at least in those that I follow. In fact anemic would describe the volume in some of them

Yeah, that’s an interesting observation on the volume Wolfster. The last few weeks there has been insanely high volumes, but today there seems to be a lot of indecision in the stocks I’m watching.

Yeah, that’s an interesting observation on the volume Wolfster. The last few weeks there has been insanely high volumes, but today there seems to be a lot of indecision in the stocks I’m watching.

Yeah, that is an interesting observation on the lower volumes Wolfster. The last few months, and especially the last few weeks there has been insanely high volumes showing new money (and smart money has been flooding into the sector), but today there seems to be a lot of indecision in the stocks I’m watching.

Newsflash with (VZLA) (VIZSF) Vizsla Resources after Sensational Drill Results and Doubling of the Share Price

Swiss Resource Capital AG – July 13, 2020 #VIDEO

https://youtu.be/Auh9JZz9Jlk

Silver soars to 10-month highs; Endeavour Silver +8%

Jul. 13, 2020 – By: Carl Surran

“Comex silver futures (XAGUSD:CUR) +3.1% to $19.65/oz., charging toward their highest settlement since September after soaring 66% off their March lows.”

“The drop in short-term interest rates and the Fed’s aggressive bond purchases have lowered yields in debt markets, reducing the opportunity cost of owning precious metals; silver’s widespread industrial applications also have helped prices benefit from the reopening of factories in the U.S., China and elsewhere.”

“You’re flying on two engines, which are commercial demand and investor demand,” says Bank of America commodities strategist Michael Widmer. “That’s driving silver prices higher.”

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3590615-silver-soars-to-10-month-highs-endeavour-silverplus-8?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=exk-ag-silver-soars-to-10-month-highs-endeavour-silver-8&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3

(SSV) Southern Silver starting to break out today as their ounces in the ground get re-rated higher by the marketplace. Up close to 17% on the day.

(SCZ) Santacruz Silver also getting a bid today as Silver moves higher to their cost of production, which is the same thing we saw last year once Silver got up over $19 and started heading towards $20. SCZ up about 13% so far today, and rightly so as it is the smallest market cap Silver producer, has the highest costs, along with Endeavour Silver, and both are ratcheting higher today as Silver closes in on prices that get them closer to break even. Both EXK and SCZ have excellent leverage to rising Silver prices as distressed producers. Nice to see!

(BHS) Bayhorse also moving with leverage to the break higher in Silver prices. BHS up 9%.

EXK Endeavour Silver up 10.6% on the day.

MYA Maya Gold & Silver up 10.85% on the day.

The Silver producers are moving nicely on this higher metals pricing.

(EXK) (EDR) Endeavour Silver Produces 596,545 oz Silver and 5,817 oz Gold in Abbreviated Second Quarter, 2020

by @nasdaq on 9 Jul 2020

https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/endeavour-silver-produces-596545-oz-silver-and-5817

One of the better technicians over at ceo.ca (@Ty) posted this chart today:

@Ty – “$REG The weekly momentum structure broke. A strong move is what should be expected when that happens.”

http://cdn.ceo.ca/1fgp1kq-Screenshot%202020-07-13%20at%2018.06.06.png

☹️….still been waiting for it to pull back cuz I never got into any copper plays despite talking about it. I thought I had time……fighting FOMO ever since. 🙄

Yes, as we’ve discussed the Copper stocks have been starting to move lately, but Copper back up near $3 is why. There is still plenty of time to position in the Coppers but it is sad to see some of my watchlist pulling away from the station before I was ready.

I was just surprised by the large move Regulus, one of the few I did just get back into, and don’t normally see large double digit moves in the Copper stocks, much less when there was no discernible news out or catalyst in REG…. but I’ll take it 🙂

I am not saying …….silver will not go up………just has to break out…

Uh-oh, WM price selling down some now and the Euphoria has turned to souring from investors on the news being good, but not bonanza.

Regardless, the valuation in WM is at nosebleed levels, and while I’m surprised it didn’t stay elevated today on the good drill results, the market cap is way ahead of itself.

Thanks Matthew. Just getting frustrated probably. If you told me gold was up $12 and silver was up .73 today I’d have thought I was in the green not the red….

Overall the Silver miners are doing fine today, with lots of green on the screen.

Symbol – $Silver #Producers – Daily Change %
EXK Endeavour Silver +11.11%
SCZ.V Santacruz Silver +10.26%
MYA.TO Maya Gold and Silver +10.08%
GPL Great Panther Mining +6.34%
GGD.TO GoGold Resources +6.09%
FRES.L Fresnillo +5.62%
IPT.V Impact Silver +5.13%
AG First Majestic Silver +4.03%
HL Hecla Mining +3.73%
FSM Fortuna Mining +3.58%
USAS Americas Gold & Silver +3.25%
SVM Silvercorp Metals +3.05%
CDE Coeur Mining +2.81%
HOC.L Hochschild Mining +2.75%
PAAS Pan American Silver +2.28%

Overall the Silver miners are doing fine today, with lots of green on the screen.

Symbol – $Silver #Producers – Daily Change %
EXK Endeavour Silver +11.11%
SCZ.V Santacruz Silver +10.26%
MYA.TO Maya Gold and Silver +10.08%
GPL Great Panther Mining +6.34%
GGD.TO GoGold Resources +6.09%
FRES.L Fresnillo +5.62%
IPT.V Impact Silver +5.13%
AG First Majestic Silver +4.03%
HL Hecla Mining +3.73%
FSM Fortuna Mining +3.58%
USAS Americas Gold & Silver +3.25%
SVM Silvercorp Metals +3.05%
CDE Coeur Mining +2.81%
HOC.L Hochschild Mining +2.75%
PAAS Pan American Silver +2.28%

Lots of #Silver Juniors also on the move having a ~green day.

Symbol – $Silver #Explorers and #Developers – Daily Change %

CLZ.V Canasil Resources Inc. +44.83%
SSV.V Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +29.17%
ASLM American Silver Mining Co. +28.44%
BCK.V Blind Creek Resources Ltd. +25.00%
SPD.V Silver Predator Corp. +20.00%
DEF.V Defiance Silver Corp. +17.86%
ELEF.TO Silver Elephant Mining Corp. +16.39%
AUU.V Aura Resources Inc. +14.29%
IVR.AX Investigator Resources Limited +13.64%
PSL.V Prospero Silver Corp. +11.86%
ABRA.V AbraPlata Resource Corp. +11.43%
SNG.V Silver Range Resources Ltd. +11.11%
UFO.L Alien Metals Limited +10.87%
GOG.V Golden Tag Resources Ltd. +10.00%
RYO.V Rio Silver Inc. +9.09%
SVB.TO Silver Bull Resources, Inc. +9.09%
SVL.AX Silver Mines Limited +9.09%
REX.V Orex Minerals Inc. +9.09%
BHS.V Bayhorse Silver Inc. +9.09%
WRM.AX White Rock Minerals Ltd +8.33%
AUMN Golden Minerals Company +7.55%
SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. +7.14%
AAG.V Aftermath Silver Ltd. +6.94%
RRI.V Riverside Resources Inc. +6.06%
AUN.V Aurcana Corporation +6.00%
GRSL.V GR Silver Mining Ltd. +5.97%
BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +5.30%
CCW.V Canada Silver Cobalt Works Inc. +5.00%
AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +4.74%
SVG.V Silver Grail Resources Ltd. +4.55%
KTN.V Kootenay Silver Inc +4.29%
DSV.V Discovery Metals Corp. +4.17%
DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +3.17%
MAG.TO MAG Silver Corp. +3.02%
MSV.TO Minco Silver Corporation +2.94%
VML.V Viscount Mining Corp. +2.94%
BBB.V Brixton Metals Corporation +2.04%
SIL.TO SilverCrest Metals Inc. +1.87%

A poster over at ceo.ca said the metal was moving but the silver miners were asleep today.

I responded back:

“If that is the $Silver stocks sleeping, then I can’t wait until they wake up.” 🙂

He must have a portfolio similar to mine. 😞…..

Cheer up Wolfster. One day doesn’t make a market, but Silver is breaking out today so the stocks that are really surging on this news can be instructive. Even the ones that haven’t moved as much today, may have already moved strong the last few weeks and were just short-term overbought despite the move higher in Silver today.

The stocks you’ve mentioned you hold are quality names and I believe you’ll do just fine medium to longer term.

When I have days like that and am frustrated my portfolio isn’t moving like other stocks, I back away from the screen, take a walk and get some fresh air, and come back later that evening or even the next day with a fresh pair of eyes.

Good luck to you amigo and may your stocks be very prosperous!

I hear you….. just sucks that most days I’m too busy to look too often and today I’ve got lots of time to kill and that’s what I get to look at….silver up .70 and my excitement level mounts as we near $20……then I look at the portfolio and…… obviously I need to get more busy days. Those are the good ones. 😎