Hour 1 – Featuring Rick Bensignor and Jesse Felder
It was a crazy week in the financial markets, in everything from US markets, yields, gold, and the US Dollar. I’m excited to have Rick Bensignor and Jesse Felder on for extended segments to share their views on a wide range of markets and sectors, plus some comments on the significance of the Coronavirus.
Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com. I love hearing what stocks you are all following and your thoughts on the markets.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder kicks off the show by explaining why he thinks the fundamental are not supporting the rise in the US markets. We touch on sentiment, the drop in share buybacks, the Fed winding down its liquidity injections, and the Coronavirus.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Rick Bensignor wraps up the show with an extended discussion on the economic impact of the Coronavirus. We dive into his strategy for the markets and where he sees the safe haven assets moving from the current breakout levels.
Exclusive Company Interviews and Comments This Week
- Eclipse Gold Mining – Introducing the new Company from the team behind Northern Empire
- John Kaiser – Comments on Midas Gold, Galway Metals, and Azimut Exploration
- Jayant Bhandari – With Gold Showing Serious Strength Here Are Some Stocks To Watch
Equinox (EQX) has been one of my better performers over the last year as well, but for mid-tier gold producers, K92 Mining (KNT) has been a standout in my portfolio and one of the best turn-around stories in the sector. Both companies have done all the right things to expand resources, reduce costs, and improve production metrics and it is nice to see a few teams really winning and having success.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?EQX.TO,KNT.V&p=5&O=011000
I don’t currently own Teranga (TGZ) or Aura Minerals (ORA), but have held them both previously and still follow them closely. Both of those teams have really had a good run lately as well for Mid-tier gold producers.
Many investors dismiss the PM producers, only focused on discovery exploration stories, but the producers can have fantastic out-performance to the underlying rising metals prices. They are not without risk, but at least investors know there are ounces in the ground getting more and more valuable, and all these companies did well at exploration to keep expanding their resources & mine life at operations.
>> Here is a 1 year performance Chart of all 4 companies showing their gains.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?EQX.TO,KNT.V,TGZ.TO,ORA.TO&p=5&O=011000
Another interesting observation is that while companies like Teranga, Aura, Equinox/Leagold, and K92 Mining have been some of the high flyers, they also have been operating in Jurisdictions that many ignore like South America, West Africa, and Papua New Guinea. Admittedly there are risks in Brazil, or Burkina Faso & Ivory Coast, or PNG, but that is also where some of the best gains have come from.
It isn’t all about Canada folks, and often those are some of the more crowded trades.
Another example of investors perceptions of Jurisdictions versus real world results, is found in the best Silver developer/explorer gains this week and last that have come out of (ABRA) Abraplata Resources that just doubled in share-prices, and it is drilling in Argentina.
There are many investors bellyaching about their Canadian silver Jr explorers lagging over at ceo.ca or stockhouse, but those same folks likely snubbed their nose at Argentina and missed a great opportunity to make gains. Again, yes it’s a riskier jurisdiction, but there are miners operating in Argentina like (MUX) McEwen, and if the project is world class, then it will go up in value almost regardless of jurisdiction.
Look at where many of the Platinum & Palladium deposits are located in South Africa and they are moving on the price increase to the metals, so when folks rule out everything but Canada or US they are really missing a lot of interesting stories.
One more example is (LIO) Lion One Metals. This Gold developer/explorer is operating in Fiji and many people I spoke with privately were like “Yeah, but Fiji? That concerns me….”. They picked “safe” Canadian juniors that haven’t moved much or have pulled back, and meanwhile, Lion One has been screaming higher for the last year.
Bottom line: Often the pundits and talking heads that gather at investment conferences or in online communities or that guru-chase newsletter writers all start getting swept up in group herd-think, and run down the same darn bullet points over and over again about “Top management, Top Jurisdictions, Top Projects…” and the reality is that few would consider Teranga, or Aura, K92 Mining, AbraPlata resources, Lion One, etc… Top managment or top jurisdictions or even the top projects, and they crushed most of the “safer” and “highly respected” companies over the last year.
We saw the same thing happen in each of the rallies the last few years – it is often the good (but not great) management teams, with far more reasonable compensation packages, a Tier 2 or 3 deposit, and in the “riskier” jurisdictions that were the big winners.
Sometimes it is valuable to question the herd-think, and do the opposite, and zig while everyone else is zagging (and while their performance is lagging). 🙂
MKO – Mako Mining is another great example of company with a great project, and solid management team, operating in a jurisdiction that many would shrug off – Nicaragua.
Mako has outperformed most of the “safer” US or Canadian gold developers, and quietly moved forward with developing their massive Gold deposit to go into production later this year, and just executed a solid capital raise to that end earlier this week.
__________________________________________________________
(MKO) (MAKOF) Mako Closes US$15,150,000 Term Loan
21 Feb 2020
Akiba Leisman, Chief Executive Officer of Mako states that “the closing of the Loan allows Mako to maintain the expected timeline to first gold pour at San Albino of late summer 2020. In addition to the financing, the Company enjoyed another milestone this week with the commencement of mining at San Albino. Pre-stripping of waste has commenced with mining of mineralized material expected in the second week of March after blast hole samples are assayed and returned from an external lab. We can’t thank our operating team enough for their effort in advancing the San Albino gold project toward production and our controlling shareholder, Wexford, for their continued support at a time when financing for junior mining companies continues to be a challenge.”
Another Latin American gold producer that I’ve traded and held a core position in for years is Jaguar Mining (JAG), operating 3 mines at 2 mining complexes in Brazil. They’ve moved nicely lately and would be overlooked by many because they are a good but not great team, operating in a good but not great jurisdiction, with 3 good but not great projects, and a large share count, but what many going down their standard checklist of buying criteria (top management, Tier 1 project, tight share structure, and, safe jurisdiction) will miss is that a company like Jaguar Mining will have quite a bit of leverage to the rising metals prices and their efforts to reduce costs, is how big of an effect this will have on a percentage basis to their margins and future revenues and cash flows. Sometimes it pays more to bet on the 2nd tier teams that can make the most improvement.
> (JAG) (JAGGF) Jaguar Mining – Corporate Presentation February 2020:
Sorry, I cut and pasted that paragraph, it came out jumbled as one long sentence. Hopefully the main point about upside leverage came through out of the jumbled syntax.
Also the big share-holders of Jaguar are fairly solid, so the retail float is smaller than one may first surmise:
> Significant Shareholders of JAG Jaguar Mining:
• Eric Sprott (48.9%)
• Tocqueville Gold Fund (15.3%)
• Wolverine Asset Management (6.8%)
• Coast Capital (5.2%)
• Orrell Capital Management (2.7%)
• Others (21.1%)
EQX has been one of my largest holdings for some time. 3 others of mine that have done well have been EGO, HMY, AUY, and Tcgdf. Unfortunately, I sold KNT too soon. The gold producers continue to be the place to be currently. I’m starting to slowly take positions in other gold producers with promise of increasing reserves with coming production.
Doc, I had sold KNT when there were some initial concerns in Papua New Guinea’s taxation on another Major, but I bought back in after it had pulled back after feeling a bit more comfortable by following Bryan Slusarchuk, Co-founder, former President and Director of K92 Mining Inc, over at ceo.ca and he put things back into perspective and calmed my concerns about their relationship with government. Glad I did as it picked back up and has continued to knock it out of the park.
I’d recommend following Bryan’s feed if you are still interested in KNT.
I’m still kicking myself for selling KNT. That taxation issue scared me out—I should have followed my intuition and held the stock.
Doc – you weren’t alone, there were dozens of investors posting about selling out when all that news broke in PNG (and I was one of them), but K92 Mining addressed these concerns immediately in follow up interviews and after their share-price did a swan dive.
For me personally, following Bryan on ceo.ca was invaluable in getting a perspective from one of the cofounders, and prior president/director of the company, and in looking at their local area of operations, permits in place, and longer term royalty agreements in place.
The other thing is that they continued to put out more good production results, and they’ve just been nailing it with their exploration efforts, and when I compared what they were doing to other options, I eventually just decided even with the risks, they were the better operators, explorers, and had executed on their strategy (when most companies have nothing but issues, set backs, and revised expectations).
I still believe K92 Mining will continue to win, and they continue to grow the size of their deposit and mine life in a big way, and they are hitting some fantastic high-grade zones repeatedly. Look at the news just this week:
___________________________________________________________
(KNT) (KNTNF) K92 Mining Announces Latest Drill Results From Kora, Including Significant Southern Strike Extension
February 20, 2020
Drill Hole KMDD0167 records bulk intersection of 30.1 m at 22.7 g/t Au, 5 g/t Ag and 0.54% Cu (23.6 g/t AuEq). The bulk intersection comprises multiple veins, including:
° K1 of 10.0 m at 17.6 g/t Au, 1 g/t Ag, 0.10% Cu (17.77 g/t AuEq);
° Kora Link of 5.1m at 8.5 g/t Au, 4 g/t Ag, 0.44% Cu (9.24 g/t AuEq);
° K2 of 10.1 m at 45.7g/t Au, 12 g/t Ag, 1.29% Cu (47.8 g/t AuEq).
Drill Hole KMDD0177 records multiple intersections including 14.60 m at 5.96 g/t Au, 35g/t Ag and 3.32 % Cu (11.48 g/t AuEq).
Drill Hole KMDD0175 records multiple intersections including 8.08 m at 20.01 g/t Au, 13 g/t Ag and 0.87% Cu (21.50 g/t AuEq) plus 8.50 m at 10.83 g/t Au, 52 g/t Ag and 3.81% Cu (17.33 g/t AuEq).
Drill Hole EKDD0003A records multiple intersections including 8.00 m at 31.74 g/t Au, 7 g/t Ag and 0.52% Cu (32.63 g/t AuEq).
Drill Hole KMDD0153 records multiple intersections including 3.70 m at 48.57 g/t Au, 177 g/t Ag and 1.31% Cu (52.82 g/t AuEq) and 5.69 m at 6.62 g/t Au, 6 g/t Ag and 0.14% Cu (6.92 g/t AuEq, 2.67 m true width).
Drill Hole KMDD0198 records multiple intersections including 8.74 m at 21.58 g/t Au, 3 g/t Ag and 0.74% Cu (22.74 g/t AuEq).
Boom!!
There was also this news update this week that is yet another vote of confidence in KNT:
(KNT) (KNTNF) K92 Mining Named to TSX Venture Exchange “Venture 50”
February 20, 2020
K92 Chief Executive Officer, John Lewins, stated, “During 2019, K92 increased gold equivalent production 74% from the previous year, exceeded the top end of our upgraded annual production guidance, and made significant progress from exploration, both near-mine and regionally. From a production perspective, we are well underway with our Stage 2 expansion announced in March 2019, which will double our throughput from 200,000 tpa to 400,000 tpa. In exploration, the number of drill rigs increased three-fold from 2018, resulting in accelerated lateral and vertical deposit extent growth at Kora / Kora North while also making considerable progress regionally at Blue Lake. Highlight drill results from Kora North in 2019 also set new record high grades at the Kainantu Gold Mine. This momentum has continued in 2020, with drill results reported recently that resulted in a significant increase to known mineralization along strike to the south, in addition to high-grade intersections up-dip and down-dip of the October/2018 resource estimate.”
“We have also released our 2020 production guidance, where we expect to grow production by 34-46% year over year, with gold equivalent production of between 110,000 and 120,000 ounces. During the first half of 2020, K92 plans to complete an updated resource estimate for Kora / Kora North and a Stage 3 Expansion Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”).”
That is what successful production and exploration results look like, and it is so refreshing in an industry that produces more disappointment than results most weeks.
I also sold out K92 at a profit over the taxation issue. I had already sold out of Ivanho, Tahoe and Bear Creek for various political reasons. All these were potentially great mines. I can’t remember what I bought with those sales, but hopefully some that have done well. The World seems to be presenting more and more obstacles from Special Interests of all kinds. The strength of Legal Systems may be the key.
David – It’s understandable to be defensive in a sector that has disappointed so many so often, and take risks off the table.
I sure sold when that news broke and was circulating in many publications, because I wanted to lock in the gains that had been growing for over 2 years and not see them evaporate. I felt good dodging the further decline, and initially beefed up my Argonaut, McEwen, and Resolute mining positions, but they didn’t move much after that and I started getting sellers remorse.
However, after reconsidering how well their team was executing on both production and exploration, I decided to trim back McEwen and Resolute, and get back in to K92 Mining, but with a smaller position size. I it was at a lower share price than I had sold at anyway, so it ended up being a good trade, but I wish I had kept the same position size when I came back in. Like everyone, I was still slightly concerned about mine nationalization or crazy government taxation, so I kept the position size smaller than I would have if just based on the company performance.
I’m considering rolling profits trimmed from other gold producers into K92 as things progress further, and actually hope it pulls back soon to add a bit more to my position. It was my biggest gold producer position in 2018 and 2019, and I’d like it to get up there again by mid 2020. Currently I have (AR) Argonaut as my most heavily weighted Gold producer/developer position and want to see it stretch it’s legs a bit before trimming it back.
I’m going to have to do some portfolio rebalancing soon, because there have been nice moves in some of them like Hummingbird, while others like Alio and Mandalay have disappointed and I may clear out those positions if they pop up a bit more.
There are also gold producers that have disappointed but that I feel will turn things around and have a much better 2020 like Harte, Roxgold, Northern Vertex, and Anaconda. I may reduce down my overall number of holdings to concentrate more on a few of those in anticipation of their reratings higher.
Anyone else have any mid-tier to smaller Gold Producers that they feel may outperform in 2020?
I guess nobody else invests in Gold producers that they feel will outperform.
In contrast to the stories about successful operators up above, here is the reverse of that with a concerning up date from CDE Coeur Mining on their Silvertip mine. That is a hefty impairment charge and bad news on stopping the mining, but hopefully they can retool, do some more exploration, get a bigger mill, and improve the economics and get Silvertip back into production again down the road.
______________________________________________________________________
(CDE) Coeur Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2019 Results
Feb 19th, 2020
“$250.8 million impairment, and temporarily suspending mining and processing activities at Silvertip – Reduction in carrying value to $150.0 million and temporary suspension of mining and processing activities driven by further deterioration in zinc and lead market conditions as well as processing facility-related challenges. The Company plans to (i) double its exploration investment in 2020 to potentially further expand the resource and extend the mine life, and (ii) pursue a mill expansion to improve the asset’s cost structure and its ability to deliver sustainable cash flow”
Good interview with Frank Giustra on Gold
https://capitalistexploits.at/frank-giustra-the-art-of-curiosity/
Thanks gentlemen…..great week of informed guests and the usual great input from our resident experts as well….if only my picks in gold and silver had been more like the consensus
Here’s a great summary on the biogas sector which has been flying since November
https://investingnews.com/innspired/biogas-rng-can-power-transport-industry/
Deficit Should Keep #Palladium Price On The Boil
Bruno Venditti | February 21, 2020
“Tight supplies for palladium have continued to feed its price rally. A report from chemicals company Johnson Matthey estimated that the supply deficit for the metal widened to nearly 1.2 million ounces last year and is expected to deepen this year, as stricter emissions legislation in China and Europe will drive up vehicle palladium loadings.”
For what it is worth info: Looks like I had 3 short term sales and 1 long term for an average gain of 41.4% for K92. Average sales price was $3.06. Since price about $3.40 now, I guess reentry now would not have cost too much.
Yes, I’m fine jumping back into a position I used to own at a higher price, if I still believe there is a good risk/reward ratio in place.
You gotta be in it to win it. 😉
David – BTW great trading. We focus so much on 10 baggers or 2-3 baggers and such, that we forget to acknowledge how a larger position making 41.4% average in your example above is still better than most Mutual Funds or Index Funds or even most hedge funds on the planet. That is a fantastic gain to have made and outperformed the general markets and most retirement funds by a long ways.
That is what is exciting about being the Resource sectors with raw materials and energy stocks.
Regardless, job well done!
Holding fewer miners paid off this week. Mine were up as much as 29% before finishing the week up 25%. SILJ, GOAU and GDX returned over 8% while GDXJ returned almost 10%. My approach is obviously much riskier than those ETFs so it is not better for everyone.
IPT precisely reached a resistance that I mentioned on Tuesday morning when it was between .425 and .44…
On February 19, 2020 at 9:18 am,
Matthew says:
Far more important fork resistance is found at .60-ish…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p53609235895&a=685754391
Matthew – That is a great return of 25% week over week, and does demonstrate the ability to really have some out-sized gains in a more concentrated position (with the caveat – IF someone has the right stocks of course).
There are of course other investors with concentrated positions in different PM stocks that may have been down by the same amount this week, so it can go both ways, and is much riskier than a more diversified basket.
Regardless – you’ve done very well in your picks and their individual weightings
You encouraged me to put my 23 silver miners in a spreadsheet and look at the week over week performance of my “Silver miners ETF” relative to the SIL and SILJ.
My weekly returns on the basket of stocks approach was still up respectably at 12.65%, and I did still outperform SIL up 7.4% on the week and SILJ up 8.27% on the week.
I’m working to consolidate that number of positions further, because the number of positions I hold is getting a bit much, but it also protected me so many times when a miner would get hit out of left field or on downward trends, so it is a 2-way street.
This also doesn’t take into account trading around positions to scalp gains here and there and moving those gains to cash or outside of the PMs, but I’ll start following how my Silver ETF does relative to the main ones to see how things go week to week, and get the Gold ETF data built for moving forward.
Ever Upward!
This conversation is like going to a 50th reunion and talking about old girlfriends. I had Jaguar for a while but not too much. I kept looking at it on my account sheet and kept worrying about a reverse split. I finally just sold it and put it in another stock that was cheap but not so many diluted shares. But…
Haha! That is a funny analogy David. I’m still dating JAG 50 years later, but it isn’t a monogamous relationship as I’m dating a few other miners as well. 😉
This TA Video by Christopher is particularly good on his analysis of the Silver markets, and he has a whole section on his call to buy (IPT) Impact Silver in late December through present.
___________________________________________________________________________
Silver Price Update + Breakout Trigger
iGold Advisor – Christopher Aaron – Feb 20, 2020 #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis
The Gold Bull Market Of The Roaring 2020s Has Just Begun
by @Goldfinger on 22 Feb 2020
“There is a dense yellow metal that is currently in the midst of a global bull market amid the least amount of fanfare that I can recall. The metal is gold and the bull market is very real and gaining momentum by the day…”
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/the-gold-bull-market-of-the-roaring-2020s-has-just-begun
Here is a chart from @Ty, a technician that posts over at ceo.ca – Gold vs S&P 500:
@Ty – “$GOLD : $SPX (S&P500) This ratio is strongly suggesting that the relative performance will favour gold going forward.”
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1f521am-Screenshot%202020-02-22%20at%2011.26.39.png
Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (2/21/2020)
Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, Dollar
Gold: Breakout
SmartMoneyTracker – Feb 20, 2020 #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis
https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2020/02/gold-breakout-2.html
Gold and Palladium Both Have a Historical Week
The Gold Forecast – Gary Wagner – Feb 21, 2020 #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart
“Both gold and palladium made substantial and strong upside moves resulting in a all-time new record high for palladium, and gold reaching a seven-year high.”
Here’s another great chart from @TY outlining the symmetrical triangle on Sabina Gold & Silver.
@Ty – $SBB Sabina Daily Chart:
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1f54kf0-Screenshot%202020-02-23%20at%2011.19.52.png
________________________________________________
I’m a shareholder of Sabina because it is one of the better Developers out there with even more exploration upside on their large high-grade Gold/Silver deposit in Nunavut. Sabina’s, Black River Gold Project will eventually be an economic mine based on all the economic studies produced, and thus it is one of the Developers with a takeover target on it’s back by a larger producer at one point this cycle.
(SBB) (SGSVF) Sabina Gold & Silver – Corporate Presentation:
Nice chart. Let me know when you reallocate
Upon a glance at the silver chart, one would not quickly guess that silver just had its highest weekly close since 2016, but it did. The indicators suggest more upside next week and I bet it will beat gold by a wider margin as well.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p59913617190&a=500464214
There’s double fork resistance at 19.21-19.22 on Monday.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p51919494016&a=687498907
So Brixton has a good shot at surprising us very nicely next week…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p6167286505c&a=642531471
I would not have thought to start the fork there. It seems like such an illogical spot, but it does seem to be significant. I am trying to decide if I want to buy more Brixton or more Kootenay. I am thinking Kooteney as I haven’t added in a while and my position size is now smaller than Brixton.
The forks are using the peaks and troughs as markers, so it looked like the 2 forks Matthew put on that chart made logical sense at first glance. Notice how the shorter first and third prongs line up at the corners on the intermediate or shorter-term highs & lows, and this helps align the angle & center prong.
Brixton needs some good drill news to get things moving, as it is still seen by the marketplace and discussed as a drill play, but Kootenay is treated much more as a landbank of Silver properties, with solid Major Silver producers as JV partners, and still has the exploration upside as well. This is why KTN has been moving more on the increase in Silver prices than Brixton that still needs more news to move the needle.
Forks are always based on highs and lows but the thing that I think I should point out about that red fork is that I used the December low for the second point rather than the November low because the move up following it was larger (by one cent). Using the narrower low-to-high spread (in an uptrend it would be high to low) is ok but not if it lies on the other side of a wider low-to-high spread. So I would not have used the December low that I did under any circumstance if it wasn’t part of a low-high spread that was wider than any preceding it. You don’t pass through a wide setup to build a narrower fork but you can choose the narrow setup as long as it comes first.
The big blue fork is just a standard Schiff fork. It’s an Andrews fork with point 1 shifted 50% of the way to point 2. Every now and then, an Andrews fork that points one way will point the other way when “Schiffed” and this is one of them; it was pointing up as an Andrews but is now pointing down. Does that mean it is a bullishly upward pointing fork in spirit? I don’t know but it’s possible.
What our silver stocks need now is a forking breakout here:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=&a=722423179
Kootenay had quite a week on its largest volume since mid September…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&id=p71768745768&a=708378089
GDX just put in its highest weekly close since April, 2013…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p87986222852&a=686455941
Kootenay has a lot more silver in the ground than Brixton but I think Brixton will still move just fine even without more drill results. The silver it does have along with the speculative upside that is already established will be enough. Other positives in the eyes of most players include Sprott’s interest, jurisdiction, and cash on hand. Like almost everything else in the space, it will benefit greatly from a simple increase in speculative interest. So it’s a spec on drills as well as on spec itself.
The entire 2,300% move in 2016 happened without news.
Thanks guys for your thoughts. Lots to think about and consider here.
Here’s another KTN chart worth looking at. This fork starts at the 2012 top…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=7&mn=5&dy=0&id=p01482888161&a=686292383
Big breakout for ISVLF vs GDX:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISVLF%3AGDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p97073900863&a=637442068
Here’s an interesting and price-action validated modified Schiff fork:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p78767477056&a=723321278
This is probably my favorite silver chart because the bullish implications are so clear.
We have a strong move above the 600 week EMA and fork resistance that had both been a problem since last August as well as a very bullish inverted H&S continuation pattern…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p20452052514&a=547788271
It is slightly disappointing that we are at the end of bull season of the year for PM, silver has not outperformed gold. I got the feeling that the real bull market has not started yet. Now it is the recovery period only.
Hi Dragonite – you may enjoy that Silver technical analysis video from Christopher Aaron posted up above in this blog, as it addresses this very issue.
Hope all is going well sir!
EX…………thanks for the Christopher Aaron post……….great charts……and advise on silver……$18.60…for a close and break out……which it did not do Friday….$18.40…
……I enjoyed his remarks on the stocks……put, the entire silver stocks in a different perspective, which both you and Matthew have been saying for 3 yrs.
Jerry, look at the chart just above at 5:41 pm. Silver is a done deal as far as I’m concerned (at least as much as is possible in this business). It IS going higher.
Matthew……….I have to agree……….silver is going higher………
Thanks for the post….Matthew…
Cheers OOTB. Yeah Christopher Aaron does a good job on his technical analysis, and I’ve been following him for a while and usually is on target with the medium to longer term trends. Encouraging outlook on him on Silver getting up into the mid $19s and then pulling back and recharging to head up near $23. Sounds like a fun ride!
Ex……back at ya……Cheers…..
Tonight might be interesting when Hong Kong opens.,,,,,,if , it opens……
NY Globex …just suppresses the price….if, Jamie is awake…. 🙂
Might be very interesting today/tomorrow………..on the markets……..Italy…shut down…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-panic-goes-global-skorea-warns-watershed-moment-italy-quarantines-12-towns
Why is this stock not getting attention, Walker River Resources announces drill results from The Lapon Gold Project. This is the second time I have mentioned this stock. They are located near Yerington, Nevada.
RC drill hole LC19-42 returned 96.03 g/t Au (uncut ? why uncut) over 13.7 metres, including 547.05 g/t Au over 1.5 metres. 115.38 g/t Au over 1.5 metres, at a depth of approximately 76 metres.
RC drill hole LC19-43 returned 94.81 g/t Au (uncut) over 6.1 metres including 305.25 g/t Au over 1.5 metres and 73.86 g/t Au over 1.5 metres, at a depth of approximately 84 metres.
RC drill hole LC 19-45 returned 346.4 g/t Au (uncut) over 1.5 metres at a depth of 3 metres.
SYL: V.WRR https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=8423700086138574&qm_symbol=WRR
REALIST NEWS – Clif High’s New Electrics? Silver fogging machine to deal with “Sun Disease”?
Interesting……….that China is already doing the silver fogging machine…..I read that some where else…..Maybe, that is why CHina likes silver according to reports a few years ago…..jmo
After listening to this program…………wonder if JPMORGAN and Jamie own the company…
Silver Gogging machine………now we get fogged………lol
Boys! Highly recommend this. Gooberments regs causing huge demand for gooberment paper…financial repression will get worse in US…so savers take it in the shorts yet again…and gooberment setting up an even bigger crap-coated death spiral.
Oh my………….gold off to the races………$11 up
dang………..up $16 plus
Jamie must have been awake…….NY Globex…..spoofing at kitco chart…..went down to $1450….
Kitco chart stinks………jmo…..
Agreed. Kitco shows spot prices too, which most markets don’t use. Most investors use the most active futures contract (even if philosophically they should actually use the physical metals price). Yahoo finance has a pretty up-to-date Gold chart, as does Mini-Mike’s Bloomberg site.
Gold currently at $1663.30. We’ll see how it goes…
Well gold had a nice night…………..London wants to contain it……….
the Kitco charts , starting machine was showing up $1680 and down $1450….in first 15 min to 30 mins. of trading…..what a hoot.
jaguar mining, I remember this one was one of matthew’s favories in the past. hasn’t been mentioned in a while! slow mover.
I still like it and it is finally well positioned to move significantly higher after a rough year. It is a high cost producer so the higher gold price lately will result in significantly greater profitability if it is sustainable. Q1 and especially Q2 should be very good now that the hedges are going away.
I will be surprised if the coming week isn’t a good one.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JAG.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p19114089628&a=708178402
I don’t have any. Maybe its time.
Ive owned jag for awhile now.
Sure, it could be considered slow, but most of mine have been slow.
It moves and for me thats all that counts, I figure it will increase in price as all boats rise with the tide.
Hi dwjones – good to see you posting here again. Jaguar has been one I’ve been following since 2010. They’ve done a great job turning their operations around and got the investment cash injection from Eric Sprott recently (to upgrade their equipment and on the ground infrastructure), so they should be in good shape to build into a valuation growth story over the next 1-2 years. Their margins will be helped by their lowering costs, while Gold is climbing so it is a good confluence of factors that should help them get more attention in the medium term.
Thankfully, I never owned it until 2016, after the team that ran it into the ground was dumped.
Agreed, I bought back in to JAG in late 2015 and into early 2016 once the new team came on board and after they came out of credit protection with their 4 mines and 3 mining complexes and their other exploration/development projects.
JAG actually had a nice run coming out of the financial crisis in 2008/2009 – 2011 and I had some good initial trades on it in late 2010 and again 2011, but then sold out in 2012 when the sector corrected and Jaguar was correcting harder than it’s peer group. I watched the implosion from the sidelines and then the credit protection and just figured they’d go belly up, but the restructure and reemerged with their assets, and new team with a new direction.
Selling in GSS might’ve been overdone
Looks like another good day for gold bugs….
People might be getting a shock market rather than a stock market today……..with the futures down 800……
Might be time for some of the people to start thinking of putting some gold in their IRAs
1 -2 % at a minimum…… 🙂
Not everyone can squeeze through the door at the same time……… 🙂
FIDELITY trading broke again…..might be time for some planning….
Being your own banker…… 🙂
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fidelity-breaks-2nd-time-week-countless-accounts-showing-zero-balance
My miners gapped more than 12% today and are still up over 9%. At least short term, it might be foolish but I haven’t sold a share today.
I held NUGT over the weekend and sold 1/2 at the open. GDX at its 2016 top resistant, we shall see how this resolved. Like you, I haven’t sold any of my core positions. Barrick, AUY, PAAS, VGZ, AGI
That was smart to hold NUGT over the weekend. That’s a risky one but you nailed it!
It’s very ballsy to hold an ETF like NUGT or DUST over the weekend, especially with all the Coronavirus news and tensions changing every few hours, but nice trade CaliJoe.
For stockcharts subscribers, here’s a 30 min SLV:GLD chart that looks good:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=30&yr=0&mn=1&dy=7&id=p07649332532&a=723255755
DIA:GLD is below its 200 week MA for the first time since 2012 and has also broken important speed line support.
So much for the guys who kept saying falling stocks would be bad for our miners. I’ve been adamant for years that that would not be the case unless there was a genuine crash.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p68455116396&a=711889924
I don’t know how my last two posts ended up here. I had refreshed the page just before posting them.
Im surprised, when I saw ipt up to 66-67 even I considered selling to rebuy lower.
Sure enuff that would have made me 4-5cents a share.
Had to think about it but figured my butt could use a few more kicks.;-)
Actually you know Im a horrible trader so I hope the sit tight and be right thinking pays off in the long run this time.
It’s always easy to feel regret in the very short term but I believe we will soon forget all about this missed opportunity since silver is getting ready to move up versus gold.
Had silver already run versus gold, I would have today’s gap.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p80187156923&a=608302267
No regrets, it was just so obvious this time.
Actually, ipt has been a good one for trading for some time.
Im certain you noticed.
Thx for responding.
Oops, I left out a word. I would have “sold” today’s gap.
Regardless of my actions, I think it’s pretty hard to go wrong selling gaps of the size we saw today.
Silver is pretty stretched at 7 straight days up but I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes another one or two…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p47130330122
Gold is very overbought and even more stretched at 8 straight days up so it might soon have a down day while silver manages to stay positive…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p75850658599&a=723486305
After the pop on the open 1/2 of mine are now in the red so yes you’re doing well
Yeah, the miners are very mixed today with 1/3 up strongly, 1/3 flat, and 1/3 down strongly. Also, some of the companies down today are still quality projects where it looks like people trimming positions, but then other companies are surging much higher. Wild action.
Call it luck but my miners are still up 7%.
Not sure but CDE has gotten some kind of flu. I can’t decide whether I want to buy or leave it. It does look tempting though 🙂
I can see why you’re tempted it does look like it has further to fall. We should have known something was up when that Feb. 5 and 6 action failed. large producers are so much more complicated than my favored tiny caps.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p69241076127&a=715455483
Thanks Matthew! Boy that looks ugly.. I would nibble some today if it forms a reversal Doji for swing trading though.
If silver doesn’t perform as I expect (meaning up & soon) and the July-October support zone doesn’t hold, CDE could go where the green arrow points:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p15833711333&a=723442918
CaliJoe – Coeur (CDE) just reported they had a huge impairment on their Silvertip mine and suspending mining on it for the near future and figure out a better and more economic mining strategy, and they are going to do some more exploration and work on expanding the mill to improve the economic picture.
I posted the news & link up at the top of this weekend blog.
Anyone checked the gold chart in other currencies at kitco……..????????????
Mexican peso……and Brazilian real……….Some real damage being done
Need some PROS……..to comment on this one……….THANKS…..
I have never seen this in 10 yrs…..
HELLO………………..ANYONE OUT THERE>……………
HOW ABOUT DOC>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Silver in cdn just crossed $25, hant been that high for awhile.
Looks to me this is gonna be a long strong bull, not that I know anything.
1 thing to reverse the demand could be a resolution of the planet ending virus….that could put a damper on things for awhile.
Just take a little time for the fundamentals to reestablish and we would be back to waving red capes or muletas.
China….getting the snot kicked out of them……all planned I believe……Gates is going to make another killing(bad pun) on this one……..Gates to the Rescue
You honestly think its planned Jerry?
What would be the point?
Not killing enuff to lower population, simply messing up commerce….why would they do that?
Have you read any of the ideas……..coming from the GATES FOUNDATION……
what they are doing in Africa…..?…..
Here is part of what I posted on the other blog…….
Ok………..finally………..
Bill and Melinda Foundation just so happen to fund the group who owns the patent to the deadly coronavirus and are already working on a vaccine to solve the current crisis……hmmmmm !!!!
https://www.activistpost.com/2020/01/did-bill-gates-world-economic-forum-predict-coronavirus-outbreak-an-inside-look-may-shock-you.html
The Cults have not gone away……everything is connected……
Looked at the article, I take that stuff with salt.
Maybe it is true, in which case ya gotta say “our owners are taking care of us”.
Would be preferable to using nukes to get the job done.
In Canada, we were told not to have kids because of over population, alot of people believed it, after awhile Canada brought in lots of immigrants as we needed population.
Maybe the vaccine is true, again tho, what the heck can possibly be done?
Invest in pharma maybe.
You asked………I provided some info……..
I appreciate it Jerry.
I cant say its wrong, its possible, seems pretty devious to me.
Course, these rulers are pretty much evil tho.
AXU sure is taking a beating today, but it looks like just a sharp pull back today after last week’s run.
It’s a mixed bag as there a many Gold & Silver stocks both surging and taking a beating today. Very wild action and volume in many miners. It may be that in some of the companies that have surged that traders are pulling profits from the recent run up in metals prices not expecting them to last.
Yes mine are generally up, but a few that are down. AXU stopped right at overhead resistance, but I think the resistance is going to be temporary. In fact the stock while still down has bounced sharply creating a long tail.
What is the deal with EXK? I know that they have had a challenging year in terms of costs, and they had to shutter a mine due to depleted resources, but the stock has been pretty miserable relative to others in the sector and to the price of silver. At what point will the bad news be baked in and EXK respond positively to a rising silver price?
Great question Sam, and you brought up the 2 big areas for Endeavour’s poor performance of the last year 1) higher than expected costs 2) closure of a mine that was never as economic as projected.
I feel like Brad and team have been very open and candid to the marketplace in addressing these concerns and have put in processes to get things on a better track moving forward, but so far the market is underwhelmed and likely wants to see a quarter or 2 of improved performance.
The real game-changer for EXK is going to be when they get their massive Terronera development project into a mine and producing, and this weakness for the last year or two is not really factoring that in. I’m tempted to go bottom-fishing and add to my Endeavour Silver position if we see any further weakness, or even at current levels.
News on yet another M&A deal today where Excellon is taking over Otis Gold. That is an odd combination, but there have been a few other Silver companies diversifying into Gold the last few years like Hecla, Couer, Americas Gold & Silver, Great Panther, Fresnillo, etc…
______________________________________________
(EXN) (EXLLF) Excellon Resources to Acquire (OOO) (OGLDF) Otis Gold Creating a New Multi-Asset Precious Metals Company
by @newswire on 24 Feb 2020
“The combined company will be a well-financed precious metals producer with established silver production in Mexico and an attractive gold development project in the United States. The Transaction is an initial step in Excellon becoming a larger multi-asset precious metals company.”
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/excellon-resources-to-acquire-otis-gold-creating-a
Ex – Did you see the management changes announced today for Dolly Varden. I guy by the name of Khunkhun was appointed CEO. I bought some more this morning not knowing this news and the stock shot higher after i bought it. I wasn’t sure if it was this announcement or me buying the stock that got things rolling? : )
I have a question for the traders.
Dont no if Ive ever asked 1 before.
Anyway, there is a gap at about 1642-1652 gold in usd, does anyone expect that gap to get filled?
Seems to me most of them do, but I think Ive been noticing lately gaps that havnt been filled.
Is that normal in big bulls, cause thats what we have now.
This is gonna be bigger than anything Ive seen anyway, but Ive only been watching for maybe 20 years.
Good question……….for the chart man…….
Instead of the “Bat Signal”, we’ll need to get a big flood light that does the “Matt Signal” 🙂
HA>SMASH……HOLY SMOKES BAT MAN>…….
Many Gaps do get filled on charts (but don’t necessarily have to). The gaps on the weekly charts can be more important to be back-filled and tested as support, than than the more noisy daily gaps.
You are correct that in a trending market sometimes an asset class will not slow down and may not fill the gap. In this case, I haven’t had a chance to pull up a chart and look at gold, but a pullback to the $1640’s doesn’t seem that unreasonable. I’ve been in meetings and driving around all day, but will check it out later this evening.
If Matthew sees this thread, then he could probably make short work of it, and as Jerry mentioned – he is Chart Man.
Thx Ex, so Im not crazy.
Just sumtin Ive noticed, as I said earlier, the jump up in ipt this morning and that gap showing almost had me thinking of trading it.
So far, the price has come down to the top of the gap, a 20-$30 drop, but maybe its on its way back up now.
Thx for responding.
Yeah, I saw Gold pulled back into the low $1650’s this morning, so maybe that was it testing that Gap support. We’ll see how it goes…
Hi Charles – Yes, I saw that move higher this morning in (DV) Dolly Varden on my mobile trading app, but have been tied up in meetings all day and have not had any time to catch up on the news. Interesting about the CEO change, but the market must have liked it. (Either that or you really bought a substantial position today) 🙂
Thanks Cory
my favorite at the moment is Equinox/Leagold