+2 about how “good” of an economy we have with the FED cutting rates, and the point that this corrective move hasn’t been that dramatic in Gold. For goodness sakes, last year at this time in August of 2018, Gold dipped down to $1167.10 (which was still putting in a higher low).

After that late summer plunge, Gold then popped up briefly, but then back-tested $1180-$1200 in Oct/Nov before starting the next leg higher that blew past the 2016 high and actually surged up to $1566 this August. That’s a $400 plus move of the last intermediate low of $1167, and a $550 move off the major low at $1045.40.

There were just as many negative nancies last year that thought Gold’s move was over and that 2016 was just a fluke (which clearly it wasn’t for anyone with a clue or a set of eyeballs to look at a chart).

Investors sentiment sliding at this time of year is so predictable (we’ve seen it happen now 6 years in a row at year end tax loss season).

Maybe folks have such extreme recency bias or amnesia that they’ve already forgotten many Gold and Silver miners had fantastic moves from the end of last year to this August….. many were up 50-250%.

Those gains in the Gold and in particular the Silver miners destroyed anything seen in the general stock markts and almost every other sector, so the comment that the “best profits were in the stock market” are complete nonsense.

Really, did the stock market double or triple this year? (lol) Poppycock.

The moves in the miners were quite epic from this time last year to August, or hell even from May to August, but once again, many investors that were overly bearish in the next leg of the bull market missed the move, so all they see are today’s prices and not where they had stretched up to just a few months ago.

Clearly for any investors following these markets the last few years, and truly “buying the dips” or positioning during the corrective moves, were able to make money. The upward moves in 2016, the Q1 run of 2017, the Fall rally in 2017, the Q1 run in 2018, the Fall rally of 2018, the Q1 run of 2019, and the most recent Summer rally of 2019 were all great opportunties to make money in the miners for those that actually bought the dips along the way, and trimmed or sold into the strength. I didn’t completely sell out during the rips, but I sure as hell took some of the winnings off the table to book some profits when stocks I had went up 100-200%+.

What is mind-boggling is how some folks can’t register that a $550 rise in Gold from Dec 2015 to August 2019 is a bull market. Gold didn’t crash from $1045.40 down to $500, it rose from $1045 to $1566 (ding, ding, ding…. that’s called a clue).

There was no single reason that Gold rose over the last 3 years either, as it was a mix of fears of global slowdown, FED and other central banks policies from the EU, Japan, and China, the trade wars, Brexit, the crypto explosion/implosion, and the technical price action following through a Bull market that started when Gold put in it’s Major low back in Dec 2015.

Bear markets are the authors of Bull markets. The Gold bear market was Sept 2011 – Dec 2015. After the bear came the baby bull, and it charged so hard in 2016, that it needed 2 years to work off the extreme overbought condition and get sentiment back down again. The end of last year was that moment, and then overall 2019 has been a fantastic year in the metals…. yet some are still whining. (which tells me they missed the move up in the metals and miners).

Some things never change….

I agree gdx is up but everyone is not buying etf their recomending mostly exploration plays which went up and back down so most people encouraged for further breakout in gold really just held those explorers and watch those gains evaporate. Stocks on other hand held breakout and proven profits.
Im not saying you shouldn’t be in metals with small portion of portfolio Im just saying they keep pushing that you need mkt crash, war or conflick, inflation to really have gold breakout to 1600+ in order for these high risk explorers to hold those gains and it not happening. Or be the needle in haystack and have drill results finding big deposit. Just stop hoping for stock crash to benefit gold stocks. Avg person has 10 pct in metals why would you want stock crash and hurt your core investment to make small profit in gold. If inflation comes then thats your insurance not for crash. Wake up.
Your investing in lotto ticket.

Determining what any stock is worth can be a fools errand, as some stocks never get close to their “value”, while other nonsensical stocks reach values that climb to nosebleed levels (think cryptos or potstocks or a drillplay with a newsletter writer pumping it)….

The goal of investing is to make money, and not lose money. All that actually matters is that you buy the stock for lower than you sell it for, and book a profit in a reasonable time (based on one’s investing strategy). Call me old fashioned, but I only care about buying low and selling higher and getting an out-sized return.

There is no need to marry a position or hold something waiting for 10-15 years hoping to make a paltry 10-20%. Every day there are Junior miners that pop double-digtis, while others drop double-digits. Each year there are miners that go up 200% 400% 1000% and others that drop 70-99%.

The whole point is to make gains in investing, so all that matters is price, and the judge and the jury is price action. This is why technical analysis is important, and also why good fundamental analysis is key, to spot inefficient markets, look for an unrecognized opportunity, and pair it with macro forces that create a tailwind for the sector invested in.

Good luck to all in their investing and remember the upcoming tax loss season is the time to be looking for value, not crying in your soup. Then when every one feels chipper in Feb & Mar, sell to those folks and book gains. Rinse and repeat…

Also, investors should keep in mind that seasonally, it is better to buy Uranium stocks in November, and then the miners in December, if past patterns rhyme again over the next few months.

There are no guarantees and no 2 years are exactly alike, but often U stocks bottom in November and then take off in Dec, Jan, Feb… and the last 5 years, buying the Silver and Gold mid-tier producers, small producers, developers, and a few select explores in December, and riding them up until late February or early March has been a winning trade.

It looks like a similar pattern setting up once again, with sentiment super low in Uranium at present, and getting worse and worse in the PMs each week lately. If sentiment washes out in both over the next few weeks, it is time to hold one’s nose and go shopping for the best of the worst.

+1
I’m not a subscriber but you’ve sure seemed more right than wrong based on your interviews — and by a good margin.

b – I’d agree that getting an understanding of TA and learning the skills and knowledge to trade takes time and work, as does studying the field of miners for the companies that will have catalysts or upside torque based on their guidance or quarterlies, and it takes work to watch the macro backdrop for when certain sectors have a tailwind or headwind.

However, doesn’t anything worthwhile take effort and work? My comments aren’t for the lazy or uninterested, but rather folks interested in investing in the resource sector in and in particular the miners.

It is just a bit rich for anyone to say that the generalist markets had better returns than the silver miners in 2019. Also saying Gold is just doing another fakeout when it is $550 off it’s major bottom is ridiculous and a misguided comment that should be called out.

It is a huge stretch to miss the breakout move above the 2016 high in Gold, even if they aren’t paying that much attention.

It didn’t take much effort to buy a few silver stocks in tax loss at the end of 2018 and sell them at the end of the Q1 run; or to buy them during the mid-year slump in May/June and ride them up into Aug/Sept for a nice profit, even if they weren’t that informed.

I have little compassion for lazy investors or lazy people in general. If investors aren’t going to work at it, then why they heck are they listening to podcasts about the Jr miners anyway?

If people are that lazy they should just bet on ETFs and call it a day and skip the KER, where Cory does an excellent job of interviewing mining CEOs and industry pundits discussing individual companies or the mining ETFs.

Maybe they’d prefer a knitting show instead. 🙂

And I’d drop a deuce in my knitting if Gold hit $700 so that is very unlikely in the near to medium term, or even 2 years out. I know you are kidding, but there were still folks expecting $500-$700 Gold the last few years, and boy did they miss out on excellent tradable rallies to the upside, that would take multiple years or decades in the general markets.

BTW – Silvercorp (SVM) is pretty solid mid-tier Silver/Zinc/Lead producer to bet on that you mentioned, and they are the lowest cost Silver producer all-in, so yeah, if you just bought it in late 2015 or early 2016 and held it until present, even that would have been fine. There have been plenty of tradeable rallies in it as well for the more active traders.

In addition SVM pays a dividend, which is rare with the miners.

It is unlikely someone would just throw a dart at the list and figure all that out though.

“The point I’ve been trying to make is that if you “Build your own ETF” and pick the stocks better than just Majors & Mid-tiers, and mix in more of the quality Juniors……”

ABSOLUTELY 100% correct THATS what its all about!!
And I hear there is some real coin in that too.

As for trading SVM, I guess I’ve been lazy, I decided just to do a Livermore.

Im actually a pretty lousy trader. Especially on the way down, I need a stark raving mad bull. 😉

I really dislike the hedging they’ve engaged in but at least it’s been fairly modest (3,600 ounces of forward sales outstanding as of April). Hopefully management will refrain from further such speculation as the company’s financial condition improves.