The Factors Driving Gold Higher Have Now Turned… But For How Long?
Falling interest rate, central banks easiness, trade fears, all where driving money into safe haven assets but all have reversed over the past few weeks. This is causing money to flow out of the safe havens and into the US markets and other risk on sectors. Craig Hemke joins me to share his thoughts on how long this downward pressure will last. Taking a close look at the open interest and CoT reports is another key consideration.
If Trump had any commonsense this is why he would break off trade with China:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BhWcZ7P_vA
THEY ARE NOTEVER GOING TO HELP THE US.
Well all my predictions since beginning September are now in the bin. However, the one thing I’m quite nervous about is any sort of, even minor, black swan event, yes the markets are moving higher but I’m not sure the move has much conviction and could easily reverse. Just my opinion.
IRAS METALS
Taking down the Killer Dollar – Q4 2019 #SaxoStrats
By Steen Jakobsen
“When history is written, 2019 will most likely be remembered as the beginning of the end of the biggest monetary experiment ever — the year that kicked off a global recession despite the lowest ever nominal and real interest rates in history. Monetary policy has reached the end of a very long road and has proven a failure. This is the legacy of Milton Friedman and others, who probably never expected a world in which central banks would consider and even enact negative yields to the extent we see today.”
https://www.home.saxo/-/media/documents/quarterly-outlook/q4-full-report-2019.pdf
https://tos.mx/3j9O73S
Doji day can be the half way marker in a strong leg down…Doji is NOT a bottom signal that is for sure..Bulls be careful IMHO
I agree. 1450 needs a good test before gold has a shot at a low of any kind.
The miners are still acting relatively bullishly considering gold’s behavior. The HUI would still have to fall another 3% to reach its October 15th low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p35581382866
It is worse than that for me Matthew…lol…I went short the equities here in a big way…I believe the bell has rung and the an Intermediate top was generated yesterday…So many equity markets round the globe have put in Gartley butterfly extension sells….On no volumes….I just did it…I did it on todays pop in the /ES…The futures open interest is contracting and shorts are all but gone…as i say good luck to traders GLTT..including you Matthew…..
Larry, I realize it’s worse for you. Isn’t your target for gold below 1300?
Volumes in conventional stocks have been bearishly low and falling since 2009. Fed and Wall Street shenanigans have greatly diminished the reliability of such volume analysis but the shorts being all but gone is interesting. Of course that can change quickly.
On the bullish side is the huge number of people that expect a crash at any time. I’m sure you have a tight and well-chosen stop so I won’t say that you shouldn’t be short but I think the Dow will see its new P&F PO of 35,500 before it starts a bear market. Stock are clearly stretched from a short term perspective but I don’t consider the broad averages to be appealing shorts from either an intermediate term or long term perspective.
The long term gold charts are far from bearish so I have to expect gold to hold up well even if it doesn’t do what the bulls want. The big picture for the miners supports that view as the miners look better than either gold or conventional stocks.
One big line in the sand for gold is the rising 5 year EMA. It would be very bad news for the bulls if gold finishes the year below it. I obviously think there’s little chance of that but it’s not impossible. On the other hand, gold’s yearly RSI(14) currently reads 68.84 (not as weak as many would have bet). If it closes the year above 70, the bears will be in deep trouble in January and gold will be on its way to 1800+.
just trying to have humor……the vol was not big today a bounce in gold is brewing…not trying to be a confrontational one opinion blogger either,,GLTT
Sorry, I didn’t intend ANY confrontational tone at all. Just pointing out my views and that I didn’t forget your low target for gold.
/Gc target 1) 1412 Tom Demark breakout support
2) 1286 weekly Tom Demark breakout support
IMHO these are rational downsides in a normal intermediate correction…
That does not mean I have to be a slave though Matthew…have a good rest…and non taken but I am trying to say I come in peace and in the spirit of factual engagement….
1286 might be rational but it looks highly improbable in the context of this particular setup.
1412 makes a lot of sense but the 1450 area (1440s intraday) should produce a decent rally whether it is the final low or not. Gold just had its second largest weekly volume ever and since it happened over 2 months into the correction, it could be ending action.
There is a daily chart gap on Friday, August 2nd (a Fed week) that might come into play:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p45116642140&a=698853414
GLD is about to fill a 3 month old weekly chart gap and finally achieve a minimal 38.2% retracement.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=9&dy=0&id=p44484055968&a=698205977
GLD…Yes this weekend I need to tear that etf apart…..The first bounce whether real or not is very full of info…IF that bounce has conviction well, get on board….But yes that gap will not just roll over simply…But if/when it does then my retracement targets do have more validity…GLTT
SILJ would have to fall another 9% to make a new low for this correction even though silver is well below its previous low. This is a bullish sign since smart money likes to short the silver miners when it turns bearish the sector (to leverage silver’s leverage to gold).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p49867292448&a=698855290
While I don’t doubt Craig knows more about gold than I, I don’t believe he is right about the “trade” deal.
China will be forced to buy pork, chicken, soy products, but China will never agree to protect US property rights.
Trump, who never wants to appear to lose in deal-making, may well call China agreeing to buy more food products as a great deal, it will only be because of his over-sized ego.