Big Al and Rick Ackerman discuss economics and precious metals.
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Afternoon Arnie D,
Your last sentence says it all, my friend!
Big Al
Arnie and Big Al,
Exactly right IMHO! Don’t disagree with anything you said.
Good, solid thinking.
None of this volatility bothers me. I
laugh at it. Volatility is further proof of the fear that underlies
the markets. Fear and uncertainty is ramping up.
This bodes well for us in the pm sector. Stay the course!!
A Blessed Easter and Passover to All!!!
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That God is faithful to turn our monirnug into gladness. He can take this tragic experience and make beauty out of it by giving me understanding and compassion for others and teaching me to cherish my family on earth even more.
Hi Mary,
Many thanks for your great and truthful comment.
God bless,
Big Al
Big Al, gold and silver have a long way to go and below represents my theory.
The world and it’s intrinsically corrupted conduits (political hierarchy) have prolonged the painful reality of insolvency as far as it can go, and America stands as the capstone of insolvency.
We were given the greatest advantage the world has ever known (U.S. Constitution). And we allowed it’s destruction with nary a whimper of opposition or a modicum of vigilance.
So now, Mother Nature will not be denied, she is in control.
Thus the paradox and simplicity of all thing’s in nature that return to the point where they began.
The cycle of life is the genesis of all and this time is no different. The magnificent ramification’s of truth, intellect, empathy, goodness, caring, conscience, logic, reason, mathematics’s and physic’s etc., are a collection of the greatest gift’s enabling the regeneration of the human species.
There’s a long road to travel before we can harness the dignity, fortitude and discernment to affect change and facilitate the awakening to manifest. Man must look deep into the mirror of the soul and harness the reflection of truth and personally acknowledge the hollow shell we have become.
Conclusion;
The torrent and asymmetrical warfare of lie’s, greed and immoral behavior that is today’s titanic vassal of the financial Ponzi Scheme is fast approaching its mature life cycle within its circular longevity.
The cascading financial criminality, excessive leverage, national/state/personal debt, fraud and currency debasement has set sail to the open waters within the reality of time and space, with all the frailties and weaknesses of man’s hubris at the helm of the mother ship.
This amalgamation of a cosmic black-hole is destined to meet it’s cleansing on it’s final voyage to it’s rightful resting place deep within the bowels of the Mariana’s Trench of the modern day fictitious, immoral, dishonest and illusionary monetary experiment.
The monumental debt deleveraging and follow-on digital fiat reconciliation of that debt awaits a grand default the like’s the world has never experienced.
The subsequent greatest deflationary depression that will at some point morph into the greatest hyper- inflationary predicament the world has ever witnessed will take place with or without the permission of the man-on-the-street or the crony political globalist hierarchies approval.
Mother Nature and the darwinistic theory of clearing the excesses from 30 years of fraudulent deficit spending of the worlds reserve currency will not be stopped, either through denial, apathy, ignorance, complexity, or excessive fiat money printing – the financial system currency extension event of the millennium is underway.
Will we as a people meet, slay and overcome our demons for the sake of mankind. We shall see. But there is one group that will be watching very closely and there is very little room for error.
The children of our future generation awaits your answer.
Will they be on their knee’s begging unholy mortal masters for crumbs as debt slaves for life or will they be standing tall with the dynamic winds of liberty and justice at their back’s with real command of their own destiny.
Respectfully
V
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In a universe of infinite knowledge the arrogance and hubris of man fostered a belief that he knew it all, but in reality he knew just enough to know that he actually knew nothing. – Vortex (2012)
HI VORTEX……..Well what can i say………Except….AMEN.
Tony, thank you my friend.
V
Hey Mr. Irish,
When are you going to send me that telephone number. I can make you a star and it won’t cost you a dime!
Big Al
Gees, well written. You should forward this forgery congressman! -except RP of course.
Oops edit! Forward to every congressman. Sorry…dang iphone.
HI Barry,
You have as much trouble with you i-phone as I do with my droid!
By the way, I completely agree with you.
Best,
Big Al
AL. There are some great people on your site they deserve to get on before me , save the clown till last……….I can take the boossss,s. Respect to all you great people.
Mr. Irish,
You can’t run and you can’t hide!
Big Al
V,
Your grip on the power and descriptive eloquence of our English language astounds me and makes me want to go back to creative writing classes at SDSU. C”mon, V, are you sure you don’t have a “ghost writer’ in your back pocket somewhere? 🙂
All the best – what can I say too – but WOW
Marc
Marc, I said it before and I’ll say again. You are far too kind to this old country boy, so I say thank you.
I really do believe what I write and the great people on Al’s site allow for an intellegent and vibrant dialog.
Respectfully
V
V,
I,too, say what I mean and mean what I say! I see too many young people stashed in there i-phones oblivious to the world and unable to meet reality square on – you, (like many others here), my friend, are another animal altogether!
Marc
ADD DIFFERENT..in there before animal……..in above post..
How about you coming on the show, Mr. Vortex?
Big Al
Al,
That is such an incredible invitation, I am humbled by your generosity. Al, I’m not sure I could do justice to the daily show.
What I do know is you have an incredibly eclectic array of participants both professional and non-professional with which to select from. It is a true pleasure to be apart of such a honorable endeavor.
Respectfully
V
YES AL……GET VORTEX ON ,& all the rest of the CLEVER PEOPLE ON YOUR SITE.
Very sadly, Vortex, too many people have the belief that they know it all. The tragedy of this belief is that one of its results is the dishonest economic system that we seem to have today.
Where will our kids be? Hard to say, but at this point it doesn’t look particularly optimistic.
Big Al
Al, you are making me nervous.
I am on vacation and you are making think I am light on ammo. I am about to teach Austrian Economics to bankers at the St. Petersburg Vinoy Rennaissannce.
HI Dennis,
You think you are nervous?
Are you in Russia?
Best,
Big Al
Just West of Tampa!
I found your blog on google and read a few of your other posts. I just added you to my Google News Reader. Keep up the good work. Look forawrd to reading more articles from you in the future.- Jack
Hi Al, I`m sure glad it`s not D-Day June 6, but April 6 although to many investors it maybe another battle to try to find what way the market is going, that`s a thought the market – what kind of is it, or where is it? The BRICS say it over for the West, its dollar is gone the way of the bond to being just more fiat paper for printing presses to make based on nothing but the blood, sweat, and tears of its people. The BRICS want freedom for their money and they mean precious metals: gold and the such like silvery white metals they use for use for their rapidly expanding industries that the US got rid of 40 years ago – the smoke stack industry….
D. Brophy
Good Morning! I wholeheartedly agree – great comments. GOSH, there are a TON of smart, really smart – forwarding thinking people on this blog…wow, unbelievable!
Hi Al, perhaps the miners would have been better off being on the other side of the world or east of Eden. This country`s politics have ruined them since hard cash is a fiction for many of them to operate in. There`s never enough for them to get their hands on to operate their mines. The stock market, to go public takes money. Whereas a closed corporation has 30 or so stockholders. Yet where to go to find and ever over sold company, why turn to the NY stock exchange you`ll find them there. The closed corporation not publicly held maybe where to find the deal where they have found gold, but need financing to get started – perhaps go low tech try finding local mining magazines like the California Mining Journal or other low tech guide for investing still available though the internet. Go to where the miners go to get info without the hype of a mouth piece. If a mining company where in friendy country-side like in Asia perhaps it could prosper better there and not see what little a dollar/yuan would go for. Perhaps see the otherside of Eden or Asia are where unknown values maybe gotten, since the West is sure in for the doom to come, To bad perhaps succession wouldn`t be that bad for a State to consider from an overbearing central banker we have in Washington DC…
Hi Denis,
Interesting points. I am still more comfortable investing in Canada or south of our border than I am in China.
Best,
Big Al
Hi Al, Asia isn`t just China, but other nations. The BRICS, I wonder who they would be interested in investing here in the USA, I wonder? Do you have a person or group from among that group(BRICS) that you could have on as to show what`s a good value in their opinion. And how they see it playing it out here in the States on all sorts of subjects from how our currency is looking like from their point of view. What kind of capital investments they would enbark on here to really see money at the end of the tunnel; not just more tunnel, with no end in sight. Just getting a new pair of eyes on what might not be a bad thing after all. A different view from another vantage point on the horizon.
Bill Gates made it his business to have other people from other country`s come and reinvent microsoft every few years and profit is what he got.
Consider it done Denis.
I will, of course, start with Mr. Turk. And, then I will go to Grant Williams and I will then find others.
Great idea,
Big Al
Getting someone or a group from India would be good since good market for selling gold/silver would be good way to rid ourselves of that of the BEARS we have been seeing on this site and others. The gov`t, fed, the President are all saying its over for gold yet you and I know its not, its only the begining for an even greater move of the time of the BULL.
HI Denis,
I think that the bears are definitely in the minority on this site!
We have a whole family of very smart individuals!
Big Al
Hi Denis,
I agree with Marc!
Big Al
Al: With all do respect to Rick and I do believe he is one of the best technical guys out there, but I don’t think technicians do very well when trying to explain things in a fundamental understanding However, I do believe that Fundamental experts who have equally good records as the best technicians, do quite well when they try to explain technical levels.
Nations in the world which have their own central bank are both increasing their money printing and government spending at the same time, like the US, Japan and so forth. In these nations you can have both an expansion of the money supply with stronger currencies and the appearance of better economic growth against nations such as Greece or Spain that can not print. This is why in an age of money printing it is more important to understand fundamental economics than invest only on technical interpretation. Nevertheless, technical understanding is very important to provide discipline to a fundamental view, which is why I think Rick Ackerman sees things very cautiously.
It is very important for all good investors to read and listen to groups of people outside their own camp view, preferably from people who live in other countries. Reason for this is the world is global in trade and economics, whereas most governments are centric in their policies because in order to stay in power they must keep the support of their people. So in my view as to why PM’s go down so suddenly and why the miners are suffering so badly, it is a good idea to put myself in the shoes of Mr. Bernanke and his associates and see things from their perspective. Suppose you are Mr. Bernanke and you see Mr. Obama planning increases in entitlements, taxes, fees and restrictions on how people invest their money, what can you do? This is why back in summer 2010 when many Fed members were talking about tightening, Mr. Bernanke at Jackson Hole gave speech talking about money printing. This is the Bad Cop, Good Cop routine and is used to confuse and herd investors into things that can help lessen the problems the Central Bankers have.
Afternoon Clay,
Your good cop/bad cop analogy is excellent. I hear very little disagreement between the Fed and the President.
I am a fundamentalist but as you suggested above it is important to listen to all and to read everything that you can.
Best,
Big Al
Al:
I concur with your gut feelings re the PM’s
Like probably everone else on this blog, I try to read as much as I can and from little snippets of Information from a wide variety of sources, I try to make decisions.
While I’ve always known about market manipulation in the PM’s, I’ve never quite understood precisely how it worked……………until an excellent article appeared this morning on Money Morning Report entitled “The Who,How and Why behind Silver manipulation” by Peter Krauth who cites Ted Butler. The article can be acressed by simply typing in: Money Market Report.
This combined with a simple statement made by David Morgan during an interview on RT TV several weeks ago clarified for me what and how manipulation works. Morgan simply asserted that every ounce of silver that is physically taken out of circulation lessens the ability of the manipulators to use naked shorts to manipulate the market. I believe that Sprott understands this as evidenced by his huge physical purchases last November as well as earlier this year and his opinion on how very little is avaialable to satisfy investment demand but for the manipulation.
For me, and to paraphrase Shakespeare: “Always a buyer and never a seller be” at least for the forseeable future.
DAI UY……..Your first sentence sums it up , thats the way to go.
Where are you hiding Mr. Irish?
Big Al
OOPS to my above e-mail: Should be Money Morning Report, not Money Market Report
Thanks Dai Uy,
I also read Money Morning Report.
I also agree that you don’t want to be a seller at this point in time.
Big Al
Gentlemen,
Yesterday Egan-Jones downgraded US Debt rating from AA+ to AA with a negative outlook. Egan-Jones was the first to downgrade US debt from AAA to AA+ in July 2011. Standard and Poors followed with US debt downgrade on 5 August 2011. These downgrades occurred along with July and August increases in gold from 1480 to it’s peak. What do you think that the downgrade of yesterday will do?
Hi Tex:
If I recall correctly, Egan-Jones downgraded US debt on Friday July 15, 2011 after the markets had closed.
I’ve pulled up a chart to show what happened starting on Monday July 18, 2011 until the present time.
S&P 500 (SPY) went up for a few days, then fell sharply about 16% and has since recovered to show a gain of 8% since July 18.
Gold shot up 20% by the third week in August and has since fallen off to hold about steady since July 18.
GDX gained 10% into September but is now down 22% since July 18.
US dollar went slightly negative for a month and to date is up almost 7%.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&st=2011-07-18&en=%28today%29&id=p63920424175
HI Tex,
Ultimately, the same thing!
Big Al
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Big Al,
A recent article came out called; SILVER AND THE DEATH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. The premise of the article is that, among other things, there are SO MANY chartists out there with diverging points of view that you really can’t make “heads or tails” anymore of the various chart configurations. This market is so disrupted by, as you say “uncharted waters” and intense outside global digressive factors that it has really destroyed the “science” of analyzing the marketplace. I have stated on this blog that as long as:
1. Money supply and/or debt monetization runs rampant and excessive liabilities destroy stagnant GDP numbers and
2. Loose money policies with negative real interest rates are the norm with no end in sight and
3. Fiscal insanity reigns unabridged with wars and social programs running a muck which;
4. Continually debases the fiat structure in place in a never ending cycle of increasing and deleterious over riding political insanities and FINALLY: that are –
5. Coupled with a loss in the leadership of economic, industrial and business relationships to the MASSIVE far east or growing behemoths of an asian/Indian economic “freight train” demanding a new paradigm shift in the way business is conducted than I will stay on this course until all the above FUNDAMENTALS have started to change!
With apologies to Rick A., NO CHART is going to TELL me that.
All the best,
Marc
That is also true in my mind, Marc. I will say that I do always listen to what Rick and Trader Rog have to say because I want to have as many bullets as I possibly can.
Big Al
Big Al,
I do agree with that….but, for instance, with “these BIG (inverse) head and shoulders” patterns developing….if you really research the chartists you got A LOT saying a screamin up trend is in the offing, but I have some where a screaming DOWN trend is coming…what? I guess the best way to put it is: Macro-fundamentals is a great fall-back/support position.
All the best
Marc
Finally, I will say this – the LONGER we build this base around – 31.50- S and 1625 – G (APPROX)…the bigger the explosion the the UPSIDE with be! In my humble opinion. I said this last week…but as time goes on then the more pertinent that statement becomes. If things go down from here next week then the bets are off the table! How is that for some chart analysis! Allllright.
Marc
Hi Marc,
I understood Rick and Trader Rog to say that they did not see that happening.
Let’s revisit this next Friday, my friend.
Big Al
AL I AGREE………Listen to all sides.
Vortex, your final paragraph is very pointed and should make us all think about why we are here. Free thinking and acting human beings do not take to control and governmment rules as a representation. of the life they wish to live.
Larry,
I agree completely, well done.
V
Gentlemen,
That is a very good point!
Best,
Big Al
Well, this is something I expected—have felt we’re headed for a global slowdown and we won’t be impervious to it. The jobs report was not good. The PMs will still test a low in the upper 1500s. The conventional markets will take out the 50 day MA on Monday for the first time in weeks. Copper should break down soon. The jobs report is good ultimately for the PMs since the Fed will have to start talking about QE when the conventional markets go. The PMs are still in a sweet spot but will struggle for awhile along with the conventional markets.
Hi Richard,
I have a gut-level feeling, based on fundamentals and absolutely nothing else that we will see a breakout upward with 30 days. Could be wrong and it could take longer but all the input I have tells me that it will.
Let’s check next Friday. Today au closed at $1634.10.
Best,
Big Al
This could work out right on schedule.
The seasonality chart for DJIA during election years shows a low the end of May.
Then “fed speak” a turnaround to give a little lift to end July.
Fire booster rocket QE at that time for clear shot into November.
Don’t mind me … just looking at pretty pictures.
http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/image29.png
Isn’t that interesting, Irwin!
It could be the case, but I have to say that once this crap is over it is really going to hit the fan.
I am not a pessimist regarding my own actions and regarding all of the folks on this site, I am talking about the effects on Mr. and Mrs. Average American.
Best,
Big Al
@Arnie D – “If all of those things are true, how can we trust the dollar…”
How can we trust our governments, who are all over the planet surrendering their sovereignty to UN organizations filled with un-elected control freaks having no loyalty to peoples, nations or Creator.
“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.”
― Napoleon Bonaparte
These freaks than came up with the 5th plank of the communist manifesto:
” 5. Centralization of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly.”
Gold as money and fractionnal reserve banking would still allow the international financiers to cream the people.
Congress has the power to declare war and power to regulate the value of money. We now know the increase-decrease and velocity in the money supply determines its value. THAT is what we should focus on.
“Politics are the divine science, after all” – John Adams
There’s always a lot of second guessing and reading of tea leaves (mine included) but what else can we do, other than try to make sense of everything, long and short term. What we do know for sure is that gold and silver have been real money for thousands of years, we do know that all fiat currencies have failed (because they are based on faith in governments which become more corrupt as they grow more powerful and eventually collapse, we do know there are arrangements being made between many nations to trade outside of the dollar. If all of those things are true, how can we trust the dollar and how can we not trust gold?