Hour 1 – Central Bank Easing, Gold, Tech, and An Update From Auryn Resources
It was a big week for gold which closed at a 5 year high, right at $1,400. While gold was heading higher US markets also touched all time highs and the Dollar moved down. These moves were helped by the Fed statement mid-week and a continued dovish shift by the central banks around the world. I discuss all of these market moves in this hour as well as receive a comprehensive update from Auryn Resources.
I hope you all enjoy the show! Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com. Have a great weekend!
- Segment 1 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx shares his thoughts on the statements from both Jerome Powell and Mario Draghi, and looks ahead to market moving events next week and the G20.
- Segment 2 – Mike Larson, Editor of The Safe money Report weighs in on the Fed’s inability to create inflation and the what a rate cutting cycle will look like.
- Segment 3 – Allison Ostrander, Director of Risk Tolerance at Simpler Trading takes a look at some of the big name tech stocks and what the charts are telling her.
- Segment 4 – A full update on Auryn Resources from Executive Chairman Ivan Bebek. We discuss the Sombrero Project in Peru (including your permitting questions) and the drill program about to be started at Committee Bay in Nunavut. Click here to visit the Auryn Resources website.
Exclusive Company Updates This Week
- Cypress Development Corp – Updates On The PFS, Metallurgical Testing, and The Overall Lithium Market
For all those who believe a “shot across the bow” is a good idea.
Shutting Down the Gulf Oil Trade: All Iran Needs to Do to Destroy the World Economy
Without any question Iran has the ability to shut down the Gulf of Hormuz. I also hope one or two of those pampered princes of the Pentagon bothered telling Trump that all Iran would have to do is shoot down one or two F-35s and we would never sell another one.
I flew the hottest fighter plane in the world over 50 years ago and we had planes shot down by Korea war vintage Mig-15s. I remember enough about the F-4B that I still have the skill and knowledge to be able to fire one of the Iranian planes up and pose a substantial threat to the F-35.
We are going to lose this battle and the only question is by how much. No one wins any war, there are only losers and the more we bet, the more we lose. I don’t actually care if Trump has an IQ of 160 but if he even qualifies as barely sane he will back off and rethink just who he works for. If we attack Iran in any way the US is over.
I think I mentioned that a few days ago, war with Iran is the end of the states as we know them.
Neat somebody agrees.
The issue of course, is the Zionists dont give 2 hoots about the states and as long as the americans are swearing oaths to Israel….
Christians for Israel, I just shake my head.
B:
I’m convinced Israel wants to destroy the US. They really do see themselves as running the world.
CFS did point out it wouldn’t take but a couple of nukes to remove Zionism.
China could do it or Russia could do it. Sooner or later one or both of them will realize who the problem child is in the Middle East and do something about it. Iran with their mythical nuclear weapons program isn’t any threat to Israel but China and Russia are.
Does the Fed really know what it is doing anymore?
It has dramatically altered its model and seems to be using the stockmarket level as a measure of the economy more than classical economic measures.
More and more the interest cost of the debt seems to drive interest rate decisions more than anything else.
as long as all countries work together in driving interest rates down, these low interest rates ARE sustainable indefinitely.
One worries, however, as the ability to control inflation seems to be diminishing.
Gone is the day when inflation could be wrung out of the economy by raising interest rates; as interest on the debt would kill almost all flexibility of government spending.
NEW YORK (AP) — All 18 of the nation’s largest and most complex banks are strong enough to withstand a severe economic downturn and would be able to stay in business without collapsing, the Federal Reserve said Friday.
The results are from the first round of the central bank’s annual stress tests, which showed the 18 big banks have benefited from an improving economy and have balance sheets strong enough to withstand a deep global downturn and the U.S. unemployment rate rising to double digits.
The Fed adjusts its stress tests each year, depending on the economic climate. In this year’s most dire scenario, known as the severely adverse scenario, the Federal Reserve tested for a hypothetical deep global recession, with the U.S. unemployment rate jumping to 10% from its current level of 4% and the stock market falling 50% from its peak.
The Fed also tested how well the nation’s largest banks would handle a sharp drop in commercial real estate prices, as well as heightened stress in the corporate debt markets. Several economists and bank executives have cited the substantial increase in loans made to distressed companies, known as leveraged lending, as an area of concern for the financial system.
Re: Segment 3.
Libra is not a cryptocurrency under the standard defuinition.(Not being decentralised.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-22/facebook-s-libra-crypto-coin-5-things-we-know-and-5-we-don-t
I would describe Facebook’s currency more as the currency of a privately-held, global central bank.
Seems to me it might be a step too far for some countries, but we will see.
Michael Oliver: (Better news for silver!)
https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/640383699/download?secret_token=s-8iR7d&client_id=LBCcHmRB8XSStWL6wKH2HPACspQlXg2P
This is King World News, but Oliver is featured weekly by Jay Taylor too.
When silver hits $22……then it might get interesting….
Until then Gold is King…..jmo…….
I know you like silver, cash for silver…..lol
After listening to Fitts………anything is possible…….
CFS – thanks for that post from Michael Oliver. Normally, I steer clear of KWN promos, but Michael Oliver (a solid technician) makes some great points in this audio about the move in #Gold in relation to a stagnant #Dollar price, the anticipated move coming in #Silver, and what he expects in regards to the mining stocks. Worth the listen…
On June 21, 2019 at 5:14 am ,:) 🙂 :)….
OOTB Jerry says:
I usually do not post KWN………….but, this is a nice article……jmo
https://kingworldnews.com/this-is-what-a-massive-short-squeeze-in-the-gold-market-looks-like-as-the-price-of-gold-spikes-above-1400/
Reply to this comment
Professor was just following my lead….. 🙂
Powers to be…..just do not want silver in the game….that is evident
But, ……silver should be a lot higher than $15+
Gold’s mini-me will get on the move soon. The value proposition is intriguing for Silver assets at present.
While some of the larger miners have begun to move in anticipation, when Silver does get up to $17-$18, then those same miners will really start to climb, and folks are going to wish they had positioned before that happens.
At $18-$20+ Silver…. as far as the moves in the miners then…. fuhgeddaboudit….
https://www.bing.com/th?id=OIP.wg0L_car7rCxwgxcznolYwHaEc&pid=Api&rs=1&p=0
I would buy the miners, before I bought phyz silver….
The spot price, plus the premium …plus shipping….plus the hassle of storage….
Miners are a lot easier to deal with…jmo
Completely greed OOTB. One can get a much better cost per ounce of Silver that is locked in the vault of the earth, by acquiring mining companies, over the physical w/ premium, shipping, storage fees, etc…
If in a few years the financial mess is worse, and miners are highly valued, then one can cash out the miners into fiat, and convert the fiat to more physical at that time.
ha! that was supposed to say completely Agreed…. not completely greed.
One isn’t being greedy by purchasing silver stocks at these low levels, but rather it is an opportune, and still more of a contrarian play to be in the resource sector at all, especially Silver miners. (lol)
:)……..Agree…….
Here was a good post & chart from FranSix over at ceo.ca regarding volatility showing up again after hitting a low, and how that assisted the Gold price higher. It does seem the worm has turned finally, so there will be more volatility moving forward.
______________________
@F6 – “The Gold price volatility index saw a spike after an extreme low, so overall you have to expect low volatility in the gold price unless the worm has turned. In general ppl are expecting lower interest rates on equity declines, and expecting higher gold prices as a result.”
It is ironic and comic that recently there was a such a big campaign push online by digital currencies to “Drop Gold” as an antiquated relic of the past, not fit for today’s world.
It really tickles my funny-bone that after a few weeks of that ad campaign really hitting the gas, that Gold broke out to intermediate highs in every major currency on the planet, and made new all time highs in a few currencies like the Aussie Dollar.
>>> So yeah, how’s the “drop gold” message going this week? 😉 🙂 😮
I wish they’d hurry up and start a “Drop Silver” campaign next, so wake it out of it’s slumber and play catch up to price movement in Gold.
One of the causes of the collapse of silver is due to the efforts of the Orient and Russia to shore up their gold resources. America is so far in debt that silver will start to move when they figure out the game. The price of gold will paralyze their finances leaving silver as the only choice.
Great points DT. I’d say the current trade wars have played a part, as well as concerns about a slowing overall global economy, affecting the industrial component of Silver.
However, I’m not worried longer term as it tracks much more with Gold as “poor man’s gold” and eventually the price action in the yellow metal will drag Silver’s butt along with it higher. This is actually a good window to be accumulating assets with silver exposure, and when the miners get going across the board, people are going to act like that move came out of nowhere, having missed it once again.
Cheers mate!
Hey, I’m all for that! Although Santacruz has done welll for me. Waiting on Impact now.
Five year chart of SCZ.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCZ.V&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94239230042
Hey Dan, calgary – good to hear from you sir. Yes, I noticed that big move higher in SCZ lately. Very peppy and I have a small position myself and liked it was waking up.
Cheers!
While I’d like to see more of a response from Silver and the Silver miners after a move to a new intermediate high in Gold, there have a been a few starting to spring to life.
I liked the move in EKN – Excellon lately as well:
The pop higher in (USAS) Americas Silver has been good to see as well, with a nice thrust higher on the charts above MAs.
USAS – Americas Silver daily chart
Even the beaten down Endeavour Silver looks like it finally bottomed, and is ready for the long journey higher. I like the volume coming in the last few trading sessions.
(EXK) Endeavour Silver Chart:
Hi Ex, IMHO I think USA is a safer bet than most but I am not into safety this time around and don’t own any for now. I am holding what I own now until a peak and will buy into this rush as it goes and I can afford. I’ll watch EKN too.
In general, I agree, that I’m looking for out-performance over safety, but usually sprinkle in a few steady value climbers. In the beginning part of a move the larger mid-tier producers like USAS and SVM get more attention from generalists, and then over time things trickle down in the Jrs for the higher torque moves.
For example look at how SVM Silvercorp, with awesome financials, took off like a scalded cat lately as the PM sector is getting a few more eyeballs.
(SVM) Silvercorp Metals Chart:
Overall – most of the Silver Producers got a bid recently, and a few gapped higher on strong volume:
AG,PAAS,CDE,HOC.L,FSM,USAS,SVM,EXK,ASM,EXN.TO,SCZ.V,IPT.V
That campaign is dumb beyond belief so those who fall for it are getting what they deserve.
I thought this chart was going to break down but it still looks strong. That touch of the 50 day looks like it reloaded for a run for a few more weeks. Doesn’t mean that the silver stocks are going to fall much though. IMHO the smart money is accumulating the stocks.
You’re not wrong but based on everything I’m looking at, I don’t think the uptrend has much time left, if any.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=22&id=p60680708040&a=672341302
Silver is now a clear weekly chart “buy” vs the dollar and that is going to lead it to the confirmation and outperformance of gold very soon.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p44853884130&a=501194637
Notice the volume: highest weekly in 8 years.
Thanks Matthew, I just finished going over those charts and agree. Maybe there will be an arbitration move for silver as people short gold at an RSI of 90ish.
Dan, that’s inevitable and surely already happening.
Agreed Matthew. The continual attempts to compare the two different assets classes are getting silly. Apples and oranges. The timing was just hilarious, and you can see the desperation from their followers to take a swipe at Gold as outdated, only for Gold to surge to new highs right afterwards. Too funny!
Yes, anyone who compares the most volatile “asset” in history with gold should be completely ignored.
+1
I thought Marc Chandler is with Brown Brothers Harriman. Or is that a different Mark you interviewed?
No rate cuts. ….not yet. See it happen when the SPX hits 2100 – 2200
Gold price barrels through $1,400
Frik Els | June 21, 2019
“The rally in the price of gold went into overdrive on Friday with the metal hitting a near six-year high on a combination of a weaker #dollar, slumping #bond yields, geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions and institutional money pouring into the sector.
“There has been a dramatic change in sentiment,” Adrian Day. Investment bank Citigroup saying “the enthusiasm is justified” and $1,500 to $1,600 an ounce is possible in the next 12 months under a bullish-case scenario that includes borrowing costs falling below zero.
That’s a very conservative call considering the technical picture.
CEO.ca Weekly Wrap – Golden Swans, Tips For A Gold Bull Market, And A Garibaldian Resurgence
by @Goldfinger on 23 Jun 2019
“With all of this sudden hooplah and excitement around gold I figured it was a good time to lay out some tips and lessons from markets past for those who might be fortunate enough to be on the verge of experiencing their first gold bull market:”
“I can’t recall the gold sector shifting from skepticism to extreme optimism in such a short period of time – don’t be surprised if things get trickier over the next few weeks.”
“Don’t let short term market gyrations cause you to lose sight of the bigger picture. If this is a real gold bull market $1,500 or even $1,600 will be reached relatively early in the cycle and $2,000+ during the excitement and euphoria stages of the rally is well within the realm of reason.”
“Be clear on your time frames. Are you buying a gold stock for a 1-2 year investment hold or are you buying it for a quick trade? Don’t confuse time frames and I always recommend that people who both trade and invest to have separate accounts in order to clearly distinguish between trading positions and investment positions.”
“While it’s true that at some point during the bull market even the biggest piece of crap stocks will begin to rally hard, I don’t advise moving far down the quality spectrum out of greed. This usually ends badly and it’s easy to get caught in a low quality stock and allow a short term trade to turn into a long term bag-holding “investment”.”
“Fear and greed are the two strongest emotions that cost investors’ money. During a strong bull market cycle these emotions of fear and greed become stronger than ever and ultimately end up costing undisciplined market participants a lot of money. Check in with yourself regularly and ask yourself if you’re making decisions out of fear or greed. If you have been then simply stop it and refocus on the bigger picture while creating healthy habits that help you avoid succumbing to the pernicious emotions of fear and greed.”
“Bull markets experience sharp corrections every few months – these corrections help to create a “wall of worry” that the bull market climbs. Buying near a rising 50-day or 200-day simple moving average is one of the tried and true methods of trading a bull market uptrend. Keep it simple stupid.”
“Bull markets bring out all the charlatans, promoters, and “get rich quick” bullshit artists. Avoid all of this stuff like the plague and curate your sources of information and trade/investment ideas. Your thoughts are valuable, your time is valuable, treat them as such.”
“Gold is up about 10% since the end of May and the GDX is up about 23% over the same time frame – so where are we in the overall gold market cycle? ”
@Goldfinger posted a lot of good charts and company analysis in that piece above as well.
Golden Opportunities: 20 Junior Mining Companies To Keep An Eye On As Gold Spikes
By MikeyMike426 – June 20, 2019 – InsideExploration
ARV.AX NVO David Lenigas@DavidLenigas Jun 20
Enough is enough. As a person with a First Class Mine Manager’s ticket in Western Australia, I plan to expose Novo’s deliberate assassination of Artemis. Their geological model is flawed and Artemis’s Purdy’s Reward is and always was key to West Pilbara Gold.
@Artemis_ARVhttps://twitter.com/DavidLenigas
June 21, 2019 – Speculators Anonymous – Cobalt 27 Takeover (KBLT) (CBLLF)
“Two days ago – Cobalt 27 (KBLT.V) – announced that they entered into an agreement in which they would be acquired by Pala Investments for C$501 million Canadian dollars – or a 66% premium at the time of the offer.”
“Cobalt 27 is basically a company that raised cash to buy physical cobalt and store it in a warehouse. They also bought royalties and streaming agreements with nickel and cobalt mines/deposits.”
“…putting it simply – Cobalt 27 shareholders will get C$3.57 in cash and C$2.18 worth in shares of Nickel 28 – which equals C$5.75. . .”
“What makes this deal attractive is that – at the time of writing this – Cobalt 27 shares are only trading at C$4.00 – meaning there’s still about 30%-plus to be made in arbitrage if the deal finalizes.”
“the newly listed company – Nickel 28 – isn’t even trading yet. So the $C2.18 is just an implied value (not a market value).”
“At the time of writing this – Nickel 28 will hold a portfolio of 11 royalties on nickel-cobalt assets. (Meaning once they begin producing, they’ll get a fixed payment worth a percentage of the mines revenues).”
“Some are pretty interesting – like the royalty on the world-class Dumont mine in Canada. And the royalty on the Turnagain project – one of the world’s largest undeveloped nickel assets.”
“there’s a thick ‘margin of safety’ (a term coined by Ben Graham about buying when the market price’s lower than a company’s intrinsic value) at these prices.”
“For instance – even if the deal doesn’t go through – Cobalt 27 will still have a healthy balance sheet, a cobalt stockpile, and interest royalties/streams. Thus I don’t see their shares dropping much lower than now. (They will also remain a pure-play in the battery metal space).”
“But if the deal does go through – Cobalt 27 shareholders will get the $3.57 per share in cash – plus the new shares of Nickel 28 – netting a 30% plus premium. (Which still give them significant leverage to the nickel-cobalt market).”
China Is Seizing Our Supply of Cesium
A Monday Morning Musing from Mickey the Mercenary Geologist – April 22, 2019
Ex – Didn’t Sailfish just acquire Cobalt 27 or am I dreaming?
no Sailfish just acquired Terraco (another royalty company).
https://www.sailfishroyalty.com/news%20PDFs/2019/2019.06.20_NR.pdf
Don’t know either, but I know you were accumulating Sailfish. Seems like it might benefit both shareholder groups and give more exposure to the company. Could also be a takeover target for one of the big boys. Is that your take?
The following chart shows that gold broke out of the Fibonacci fan that is based on the all-time high in 2011 and the bear market low in 2015…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=9&mn=5&dy=0&id=p16983462014&a=422417144
$1550+ is a conservative target for this initial move:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=9&mn=5&dy=0&id=p16983462014&a=422417144
In an appeal to reason, here’s one I posted 3 months ago:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=12&mn=9&dy=0&id=p86187698072&a=650957758
You nailed it with using the 600 Week MA as good support to buy Gold.
Great chart Matthew and thanks for pointing that out at the time and subsequently as it really did provide the support zone these last few years. Thanks!
Thanks, Ex. I’m glad you referred to the 600 week MA in case my calling it the 12 year MA confused anyone. Accounting for holidays, I figured there’s roughly 50 weeks to a trading year so 600/50=12.
Btw, when gold hit that MA in late 2015, it was the first time it traded there since early 2003 — roughly 12 years ago. Go figure.
12 years to hit the MA, that is a 12 year MA. Cosmic.
Gold priced in the 30 year US T Bond is getting ready for a very important breakout:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24USB&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=22&id=p93653733686&a=599207049
Gold Closes at a Historical Level
June 21, 2019 – by Gary Wagner #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #VIDEO
https://thegoldforecast.com/video/gold-closes-historical-level
Gold breakout: the second phase of the bull is underway
SmartMoneyTracker – June 19, 2019 #Chart #TechnicalAnalysis
Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (6/21/2019)
Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
Gold Stocks: More Bull Flags Are Coming #Video
Morris Hubbartt – June 21, 2019- Super Force #PreciousMetals #TechnicalAnalysis
EX …thanks for posting Gary S….
Scorpio Gold Receives Permit to Advance Mining, Processing & Exploration Activities at its 100% owned Mineral Ridge Operation, Nevada
http://pdf.reuters.com/htmlnews/htmlnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20190624:nGNX76z8vC
GDM (Gold Miners Index) just pulled back after hitting fork resistance:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p90819496216&a=672055134
(Something tells me the resistance won’t last.)
Important speed line resistance at about 1420…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=9&mn=5&dy=0&id=p90043615466&a=672652216
Thanks for the show.
From Silicon alley:
https://www.siliconvalley.com/2019/06/21/google-chrome-has-become-surveillance-software-its-time-to-switch/
(I use Mozilla and Brave browsers and others, but I’m not sure they all don’t track you.
And clearing out all cookies regularly requires more typing in often when you visit each “new” website.)