A Look Into Sean’s Presentation Coming Up At The Money Show In Las Vegas
Sean Brodrick is presenting at the upcoming Money Show in Las Vegas next week on silver and cannabis. This presentation times very well with the launch of a new newsletter he is writing called the Marijuana Millionaire Portfolio. We discuss the opportunities he sees in the cannabis sector focused mostly in US companies.
Please comment or email me with insights into any cannabis stocks that you are either invested in or interested in. I have been spending a lot of time recently chatting to a number of cannabis stocks and will be bringing some on the show shortly.
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GDX ran into fork resistance today and is probably heading below 20. Notice the gap following the December Fed meeting. It’s not the kind of gap that many people recognize but it is a gap. Gaps are based on the previous closing price, not intraday action, so they aren’t always obvious on the chart.
http://schrts.co/zfYxEJwX
+1 good observation. There is a gap on Barrick chart around $11.87 from back in February. I think its going to get filled before any large moves occur. I have a feeling GDX is not going anywhere until then.
Barrick also has a somewhat hidden weekly gap which I do not think will be filled:
http://schrts.co/aPFrWcJx
The May 3rd black candle on GDX was a pretty good signal that the pop would be reversed. The next few weeks should be fun.
There is also an open black candle in GDX from December 4th at exactly $19.50. I wouldn’t doubt that we will get a close below $19.50 eventually.
More significantly, there is also a black candle on $HUI that day too around 149. And as I have said ad nauseum, the $HUI hasn’t left behind a black candle on the daily chart since the 2016 low. I’m not sure why I thought this time was different.
On a panic move lower, there is no telling how low GDX and $HUI will go. There is no support anywhere as far as the cloud or MAs. This is not major bull trend action at all IMO.
All of the work done off of last year’s low is going to have to be rebuilt now, which is going to chew up even more time. The only thing that could change my mind would an explosive V-shaped move. I just don’t see it happening.
As is often the case, IPT told us not to trust yesterday’s seemingly bullish action. It fell 3.5% while GDX gained 2%.
Huge outside reversal day across the mining indexes and individual names.
Absolutely miserable action–par for the course I suppose.
The bullish picture out of last years lows is completely gone, IMO. All GDX had to do was show a modicum of strength to maintain the momentum and cloud support, but it failed miserably. The daily and weekly Ichimoku clouds looks terrible across the sector, save for $gold itself.
Assuming last year’s low in GDX isn’t taken out, there is nothing to do but sit and wait to see how bad this a$$ whipping is going to be.
I am running on nothing but hope now, TBH–that isn’t a proper basis for an investment thesis.
What is the catalyst going to be to turn this around? I honestly don’t see it. This looks like nothing more than post-1980 action in gold and silver.
OK, /rant off
Simple solution to your problem.
Don’t invest, stay on sidelines until large moves occur in Gold. Don’t believe anyone because people conjure up all kinds of reasons why gold is going up.
Don’t expect to catch entire move in Gold. When miners start rising and weekly chart looks bullish, get on board with quality miners/streaming companies or your choice of 3X etf.s
Save yourself from getting an ulcer.
I have been holding onto miners for coming up on 4 years this Fall.
The irony is, I was probably the only one here that said the miners could be basing for 6 or more years. I specifically compared $sugar’s move off the lows in the late 1990s to the miners and was promptly poopoohed. Back then, $sugar didn’t break above its initial peak for five years. If GDX did the same, we are looking at early 2021 before the 2016 high is matched.
At this rate, I have no reason to doubt that that is how long it might take. I’m guessing mid to late 2020 is when the miners finally start their major move.
Today’s high for GDX was a backtest of broken uptrend support. Selling there is no surprise but let’s see what kind of follow-through is achieved.
http://schrts.co/mIEGsZqg
I think the current action is very different than what we saw in 1980. Gold went vertical in the late 1970s going up 750% in 41 months. The 2011 high marked a 668% gain that took 146 months and did not go vertical. So, as we should expect, the 2011 aftermath was relatively tame. Gold took 52 months to fall 45% this time but needed only 30 months to fall 66% back then. The action since 2011 looks like a stretched cyclical bear more than a secular one. In other words, it’s probably a half-time show with an encore or two.
Look at silver’s 400 and 600 WMAs. That doesn’t look like an imminent bull, TBH. For all you know, it could be consolidating for another 10 years as the LT MAs reach confluence.
I will say this though, I would expect the $XAU and $HUI to make a run for at least their 600 WMAs soon (within 1-2 years, lol). They have now spent 7 years under that MA without even tagging it once.
It really doesn’t matter how silver looks. The sector’s fate hinges only on gold. When it breaks out, silver will catch up quickly.
Spanky, you paint very bleak picture for gold yet, you keep coming back to this sector – what gives?
Investing in gold is rather simple, stick with quality miners when they are oversold. They pay dividend and if they happen to go up, take the profit and go home.
Rinse and repeat .. at least twice a year.
Yeah, good advice.
I just can’t get myself to buy conventional stocks as an alternative.
It’s not bleak. It’s reality. The miners are basing. They are not in a bear market per se. That basing action could take 5-10 years. We are on what, year 4?
At this point, I have no reason to doubt HL will hit its trendline formed off the 2008 low and the 2016 low. Currently, it would need to tag $1.75 to accomplish that. Why bet against that at this point.
HL’s weekly stochastics havent hit overbought in 2.5 years. That is absolutely insane. Even companies going bankrupt (see, e.g., DB) have countertrend moves that at least keep shorts somewhat honest. HL has been a one way ticket to hell after being one of the better performers in 2016. Surreal stuff.
look at $XAU’s topping action out of 2010-2014. It look extremely similar to today’s chart.
A year or two ago I made this comparison between AXU’s chart from them and now too. It too looks very similar, but it at least chopped around under the 200 WMA for a little while. In contrast, the $XAU backtested and actually broke back above the 200 WMA in 2012 and then proceeded to plummet straight down. There is literally almost no difference in its chart from back then and today. Even the momentum indicators like RSI look similar.
More frustrating action in the metals. Although I believe $gold will show that it has made a weekly swing low today (will have to see by after stockcharts updates after the close).
I have absolutely no idea what happens with the miners in the short run. While I firmly believe gold bottomed last week, you can’t rule out a Jan 2016 type divergence in miners and silver. I am cautiously optimistic that the HUI can maintain this 150ish level into Friday’s close though, which should produce an inverted hammer on the weekly chart, but I would certainly not bet on it.
I am also cautiously optimistic that the low for GCC will be made this week. If we don’t get a large V-shaped rally, it will be disappointing and pretty ominous IMO.