A Trading Strategy For The USD and Trade Talks To Drive Markets
Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx looks ahead to the events this week to determine what might drive markets. Brexit and US/China trade talks are the main stories. Outside of these stories we focus on another trade war, between the US and Europe/Japan and a trading strategy for the USD that Marc is utilizing.
GLD hasn’t been this overbought on the weekly chart since 2011. This is a bullish sign since such readings show strength and are a feature of bull markets. The first similar overbought reading since 2011 happened in 2016 following a 30% gain.
This market is catching even most bulls by surprise and that is a good sign.
I’ve been saying (when it mattered) that silver looks better now than it did in 2016 so the continued strength is not much of a surprise.
http://schrts.co/TJJGYfIg
Well assuming SLV:GLD daily chart holds up and it has truly hit bottom, the ratio augurs for further upside in the whole complex, even in the short run.
Well, SLV:GLD daily chart is still struggling with to stay inside the Ichimoku cloud. If it did break down, that would be inline with a correction in gold. It’s really a tossup at this point. I will ore that $silver:$gold looks weaker than slv:gld, so there is that too.
I don’t think the odds are even yet. Gold will have to go higher before it loses the benefit of the doubt.
The silver-gold ratio is basing and might have further to go but the whole sector will likely continue higher versus the dollar in the meantime.
http://schrts.co/bpgnTjhk
$GOLD’s downward sloping 400 WMA is approx $1352. The upper weekly BB (100,2) is at $1361. I would be incredible if gold could get over that upper BB before a significant pullback, I just can’t see it happening. One realistic scenario is that it tags the 400 WMA or even that upper BB and gets slammed back to the 100 WMA around $1275. Who knows.
Nice summary by rzz about where their royalties are at
EXK and AG are inching closer to cloud resistance on their weekly charts.
There is a this spot in their clouds–AG’s is directly overhead currently at $6.75 and EXK’s will enter the picture March 11-18 around $2.62. Would like to see them bust through before a significant pull back, but again, impossible to call.
“thin spot”
Man, I need my brain checked this morning.
Bullish action in $hui:GDX today. It hasn’t exactly established an uptrend yet, but you have to walk before you can crawl.
Uh yeah, that should be “crawl before you can walk.” lol.
Unless you’re talking alcoholics 😉
Well, GDX is well above its weekly Ichimoku cloud now. There can be absolutely no denying the potential longer term bullish implications. That being said there is a lot of playing room now between the cloud (upper border around $21) and the upper weekly BB (100,2) at $24.81.
Also, bear in mind the $HUI has yet to break above its cloud, although if it can just hang in there for a couple of weeks around current levels it will also break through.
GDX is at a ten month high and looks fantastic but I do expect the “wall of worry” to remain strong.
http://schrts.co/IhcdFZEy
AG just broke out of an inverse H&S that projects to about $8.45.
The only question left in my mind, is how does this play out for the metals and miners. Will we see the 2011-12 tops tested in relatively short order? Like say within 2 years?
Based on the 5 year cycles exhibited by $XAU in the past, I think we can test those levels by the end of 2020/beginning of 2021 (i.e., 5 years from the 2016 low).
After that, it’s anyone’s guess where the miners head. If the HUI were to replicate its performance over the prior 10 year bull run, we would be looking at HUI of about 1700 at the next top. Who knows.
There is your 10 bagger…….
You could argue that this week AXU is breaking the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders that dates back to the top in 2011.
Of course, you typically get a retest of the neckline, so we will see. The ultimate target is $4+.
Two weeks ago when it first topped 1.20:
On February 5, 2019 at 11:11 am,
Matthew says:
Such strength is often followed by a continued rise even after getting back inside of the BBs.
It is overbought on the daily chart and currently dealing with 50 & 200 week MA resistance.
The weekly chart points to much more upside over time.
http://schrts.co/DpsDQnGz
It now looks ready for a break before heading higher…
http://schrts.co/XZhrdvBZ
yeah, today’s candle looks a bit ominous.
At this point its nearly impossible to guess what corrections will look like, however. Absolutely anything can happen up or down now, although I am hoping it won’t dip back below the 200 WMA.
Walker River Resources in Nevada, I liked this eerie video from an old gold mine in Nevada.
http://wrrgold.com/