In Depth Comments On The Precious Metals
Doc is back with us this week and we are diving into gold, silver, and platinum. After the pretty bad downtrend there is some work to do to bring the prices back to the middle of the ranges. It seems we will have to wait a little longer to get that breakout we are all waiting for.
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Doc, at what price range and when do you think silver will bottom?
Doc you buying (GG) Goldcorp here or looking for lower price?? Also what about ABX
Hola Doc, As a doctor you must’ve heard of McKesson. I’m thinking of buying MCK. What do you think of it? Thanks.
Is there so little interest now we dont even have anyone saying its a good time to buy?
Well, historically Aug is the low and up we go, course that was before cryptos.
> Here is the Gold 40 year Seasonality Chart from (1976-2015)
[a long period to smooth out noise from bull/bear runs]
Note that there is typically a Q1 run from Dec tax loss into January and February, followed by a pullback in March (PDAC Curse), and then a sideways to down slog from the “Sell in May and go away” into a low in late July.
After that in August and moving into September there is seasonally a strong run in the yellow metal.
b – 2017 was definitely the year of cryptos, as you mentioned, but it didn’t phase the typical pattern of seasonality in Gold market.
Looking at 2017 you’ll see a very similar pattern that played out with the rally out of Dec 2016 Tax Loss selling into the #Q1RUN in Jan/Feb, the #PDACCurse in March, the #SummerDoldrums with a low in July, and the August into September rally.
The Seasonal trading patterns in Gold of 2017 were very clear and as expected, and we discussed these all last year. (despite some mocking seasonality, but then ironically blowing most of their calls using far more elaborate analogs of other time periods, and chart gymnastics).
Bottom line, investors were well-served that followed the seasonal patterns in 2017.
Now let’s reflect on 2018 in the Gold market so far.
Well, look at that —-> It is the same seasonality patterns playing out that we saw on the 40 year average, and in 2017 (what a surprise………. no, not really).
So far we have seen the rally from Dec 2017 tax loss season into the “Q1Run,” the March weakness “PDAC Curse”, followed by a spring fling, and then “Sell in May and go away” into low in July during the #SummerDoldrums….
Hmmmm – I wonder what typically comes after the July low and Summer Doldrums…. ?
Now that there’s no need to counter the BS from he who likes to harangue daily over long-term charts, there’s not much point making the same point over and over.
But you may recall, a number of us stated in early July that we thought it was a good time to buy. My position hasn’t changed.
+1
SP Angel: Gold Headed For Fourth Straight Monthly Loss
Allen Sykora – Tuesday July 31, 2018
“Gold is headed for its fourth straight monthly decline in July, the longest such streak since 2013, points out commodities brokerage SP Angel. This has occurred as investors turned to the U.S. dollar as the Federal Reserve remains on a path of monetary tightening, plus global trade tensions flare, the firm adds. As of 9:28 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was down $2.80 for the day to $1,228.70 an ounce. The metal ended June at $1,266.30. “The precious metal has fallen out of favor as Fed policymakers boosted rates twice this year, and they’re expected to affirm plans for two more hikes at a meeting this week,” SP Angel says. “With holdings in exchange-traded funds shrinking, funds have been building up their bets on further declines in prices.”
http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-07-31/Gold-Silver-Precious-Metals-Daily-News-Briefs.html
Honest Strategies for Mining Stock Speculation: Brent Cook
by @Goldfinger on July 31, 2018
“Mr. Cook has been known to move markets, sometimes in a big way. Despite following him for several years I still had plenty of questions to ask him such as how he found his way into doing what he does now and what are some of the biggest red flags that he looks for as an investor…”
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/conversations-with-goldfinger-3-brent-cook
(GRR) Golden Reign and (MLN) Marlin Gold Provide Update Regarding Proposed Business Combination
“As previously announced, the proposed business combination will be completed by way of a plan of arrangement under which Golden Reign will acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Marlin following completion of a corporate reorganization being undertaken by Marlin. Upon completion of the proposed transactions, it is expected that the current shareholders and option holders of Marlin will own in aggregate approximately 45% of the shares of Golden Reign (after the distribution of the Golden Reign shares already owned by Marlin to certain of its shareholders) and current non-Marlin Golden Reign shareholders will own approximately 55% of the shares.”
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/golden-reign-and-marlin-gold-provide-update-regarding
Treasury, Fed evade congressman’s gold questions so he presses them again, and more
The U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve responded incompletely and evasively this month to the questions about their involvement in the gold market that were posed in April by U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia.
So Mooney last week wrote back to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell, repeating his questions and adding a few others about surreptitious U.S. government intervention in financial markets.
Trump Will End 17 Year Afghan War to Boost Economy – Gerald Celente
August is GDX food:
https://s33.postimg.cc/ge8jve4xb/GDX-20180731-_August_Food.jpg
Beauty of a megaphone pattern. I guess GDX food is meant as a good thing?
If seasonal history holds, a good catch is coming.
Nobody Knows Anything. . .Like Bob Moriarty
David H. Smith for Streetwise Reports (7/31/18)
“Investors have come to believe that they need to find a guru, a financial advisor, or to read articles about certain theories of investing if they are to become rich from their investments. Those notions are all wrong. There are no gurus. Financial advisors advise because they have to earn a living. If they were experts on investing, they wouldn’t need to be selling their services. The different theories about investing mostly remain interesting theories.”
“If you have good sense, keep an open mind and learn the basics, you don’t need all the fluff. In short, there are no experts. Nobody knows anything.”
https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/07/17/nobody-knows-anything-like-bob-moriarty.html
(ANX) Anaconda Mining receives permits to proceed with bulk sample at the Goldboro Gold Project
by @newswire on August 1, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/anaconda-mining-receives-permits-to-proceed-with-bulk
(MND)(MNDJF)Mandalay Resources Corporation Announces Non-Binding Letter of Intent to Sell the Challacollo Silver-Gold Project in Chile
@nasdaq on August 1, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/mandalay-resources-corporation-announces-non-binding
Nice. The team is executing great on the mine plan.
Yes, I remain impressed with the work the team at Anaconda are doing, and they continue to move forward all their organic projects.
long ALDR breaking out
The bears are out in full force and adamant they are right. Interesting. How often certainty proves incorrect.
Consider this article by AG Thorson “Gold Price Forecast: Multiple Factors Support A Bottom.” He is very knowledgeable in the metals space.
http://news.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-forecast-multiple-factors-support-bottom/1008
In an interview with Kitco News, John Kosar, Chief Market Strategist at Asbury Research said that after being caught in a sideways trading pattern for nearly two years, gold has resumed its long-term 2011 downtrend after break critical support around $1,257 an ounce.
Looking ahead he said that he could see gold prices testing the 2015 lows at $1,100 an ounce and could even fall below the $1,000 level in the over the intermediate to long term.
“Gold is a momentum market,” he said. “I can really only be bearish on gold as it comes out of a sideways congestions to break old lows. This is a bearish chart that has taken seven to eight years to evolve.”
long MRNS, long VSTM