Watch The Gold CoT Report And SIL For Market Moves
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold shares his thoughts on the overall market for precious metals. He points to a lack of support in the CoT reports for gold as the price was moving down and broke $1,300. This week’s CoT will be important to watch. We also look at the SIL and SILJ charts. These are some weak looking charts which should be a concern for the silver market in the short term.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click here to visit Jordan’s website for some more level headed metals commentary.
Thanks – interesting thoughts from Jordan.
Listening to Jordan I kerpt having the word ‘deflationary’ going through my mind. Just wondering whether we are about to see Rick’s much forecast deflationary event.
Hey Bob I’ll get Rick to speak on the deflation topic next week. Don’t worry he is still firmly in the deflationary camp 😉
Gold:
http://schrts.co/cV6KVB
LTC manipulation starts Friday in the UK – Litecoin Futures Going Live
Wherever GDX finds its next low, it is likely to rally back up to its declining 100 WMA. That will be point to sell/short it. Gdx isn’t going to get back above $23 for a long long time (at least a year IMO). I am most likely going to sell everything once GDX tags the 100 WMA and be done with it. There is absolutely no chance a long term low will be struck in the next couple of weeks unless GDX falls gets to $18 or below, which is certainly possible. By the looks of it, gdx has rolled over and is due to drop well below the 200 WMA.
There is absolutely no catalyst for the metals. The Fed has ended QE and is shrinking its balance sheet while raising interest rates. That is not gold supportive. The 2016 bounce was nothing but a dead cat bounce to reset sentiment, and it did a bang up job as goldbugs have been riding the slope of hope ever since (the miners and silver are leading the way down and gold hasn’t taken out its 2016 high in 2 years.
Gdx’s 100 WMA will cross below the 200 WMA before any lasting bottom in GDX will be found, IMO. If someone has a chart where the 50 crosses below the 100 WMA (and price stays below both for weeks and weeks) without both of those MAs crossing below the 200 WMA, I would like to see it.
Re: “The Fed has ended QE and is shrinking its balance sheet while raising interest rates. That is not gold supportive.”
Wrong, Spanky. It seems you take it for granted that your assumptions are airtight. They’re not.
The emerging environment is good for gold and getting better.
It’s too bad absolutely nothing on the charts supports that contention. The only thing you can claim is that the 2015 low is still intact. Woop dee doo.
The miners are going to break down below the 200 WMA for a sustained period of time before this is over. And if we do manage to bounce soon, the 100 WMA will be as high as it gets before going below the 200 WMA.
Wrong again, but that’s okay, Spanky.
In the meantime I expect AMZN and it’s cohorts to continue to rise as gold and commodities continue trending downward. Go ahead, keep calling tops in the US markets. It’s a great contrarian sign (as it has been for the last 2-3 years).
Don’t fight the Fed.
Also, if it is gold supportive, why have the miners been in a downtrend for 2 freaking years. Your bullish thesis would have been discounted a year ago in their price, but they continue to drift down. And important little no term MAs are arcing downwards now. Why is that??? And again, they could be in a bull in the sense that the 2016 low holds, it the next year or two has overall strong downward bias and there is absolutely *nothing* on the charts to support otherwise.
Were you dropped on your head? Countless juniors went 1,000%+ in 6 months in 2016 while even the average senior tripled yet you think a 20 month consolidation/correction is cause for panic? You don’t know your charts as well as you think you do.
The XAU index was launched 34.5 years ago but its biggest, quickest rise came in 2016. How scary would the following chart look to you if you were objective? We will never know…
http://schrts.co/e7RXCy
It’s going to end up being a hell of a lot longer than 20 months when it’s all said and done.
Also big quick rises like that are not healthy at all. The proof is in the pudding, and all I see is MAs rolling over and lower highs.
Sure 1000% in 6 months. And -90% in 1 year. The market is a weighing machine.
You should add the 100 and 200 WMAs to that chart and it gets much more clear the direction in the next year or two.
In the bull market that began in 2000, the XAU took 20 months to gain just 115%, yet, despite taking three times as long to gain less than half as much, the XAU still dropped 38.5% in 2002. The maximum decline following the 2016 top was slightly less. Considering the prior gain, I’m surprised it wasn’t more like 60% — and yes, it still would be a bullish start to a long bull market if it was.
On its way to the 2011 top and 460% gain, the XAU had FOUR 30% or greater declines and one 70% decline (2008). So you’re freaking out about nothing right now and I am sure you will do the same during each and every correction in the future.
Wow are you actually acknowledging that it might roll over from here? Shocking
No, I think you missed the point completely.
“why have the miners been in a downtrend for 2 freaking years”
It’s one thing to be wrong–that’s a normal part of being in the markets.
But it’s another thing to repeatedly mis-state the most objective of facts. What’s the point? The miners have not been in a downtrend for two years. They have been in a tight trading range for over 18 months.
The 2016 rally simply rose too far too fast to produce a sustainable uptrend. After all, the most violent rallies happen during bear markets. Even if gdx doesn’t take out its 2016 low, there is no way it breaks above the 100 WMA. Sideways to down for another year or two at best. And again, I am expecting some sort of dead at bounce soon back to the 100 WMA.
(ANX) (ANXGF) Anaconda Mining Initiates Resource Expansion and Exploration Program at Point Rousse Project
In case anyone missed it:
BRIXTON METALS ANNOUNCES INTENTION TO SPIN-OUT ITS COBALT ASSETS
http://brixtonmetals.com/brixton-metals-announces-intention-to-spin-out-its-cobalt-assets/
Brixton Metals Drills 3.55% Cobalt over 0.98m at Its Langis Project
@nasdaq on May 30, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/brixton-metals-drills-355-cobalt-over-098m-at-its
Hi Matthew –
I know you have mentioned Brixton to me before. I don’t know much about it, but your post above caught my eye. I’m pretty full up on Silver miners, but they obviously have other stuff. Was the Cobalt exposure why you purchased or is there more to the story?
Thanks,
Charles
Hi Charles,
My initial interest in the company a couple years ago was due to the silver prospects (thanks Brian) but I have been reestablishing my position lately due to the value and the chart. The explorers can be a little tricky to size-up but this one is cheap in my estimation.
I am still much more interested in silver than cobalt but value is value — and that’s what makes all mineral extraction interesting to me. Few other businesses can take the shareholder from low or no value to significant or even massive value so quickly. Maybe in biotech there’s similar “discovery” potential but it’s not the same.
Anyway, I am very much in favor of the proposed spin-out.
BBB weekly:
http://schrts.co/Y5NhDs
Thanks. I like the two for the price of one concept and I have next to no cobalt exposure. Might have to take a small initial position to see what happens and follow a bit.
I’m a fan and shareholder of Brixton BBB as well, and just wanted to mention they also have Gold in the “Golden Triangle” at the Thorn property, and on their Atlin Gold project that is also in BC. Hog Heaven in Montana is Silver/Gold, and then their Langis property is Silver/Cobalt.
Between the 4 projects the Silver/Cobalt properties were what got me interested.
Thorn was their old flagship, but they still have a bit more work to do to prove it could be an economic project, and Atlin is earlier stage exploration, but surrounded by other interesting properties and shows promise.
Hog Heaven in Montana looks to be quite mineral endowed, but may face steep opposition from groups that have rallied against other mines being developed. If Couer can get it’s Montana properties permitted, then it will open the door for Hog Heaven to take the lead in Brixton’s lineup (post Cobalt assets spin out).
Brixton Metals Corporate Presentation:
http://brixtonmetals.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brixton-Presentation-JUNE2018-web.pdf
Advancing High Potential $Gold & $Silver Projects – Brixton Metals $BBB $BXTMF
Cambridge House International – May 22, 2018 #CorporatePresentation #VIDEO
Red alert! AMZN is down today. Hope everyone is buying a little. It’s a blessing from god.
The daily RSI(14) is 73 and the weekly is 76. No wonder you have trouble in the miners.
That’s why you only buy on red days and with 1% of cash.
It will work off overbought by going flat for a few weeks at worst.
A single red day is not “weakness” or what’s meant by a pullback.
The last two daily overbought readings were “worked off” with 15% declines. Regardless, it’s not the smartest approach for a risk averse person like yourself.
Mining News Digest
Wednesday 20 June 2018
US-China trade spat wipes $57B from top mining stocks in fortnight
Copper, iron ore prices drop, mining majors punished as US threatens more tariffs on “predatory” Chinese imports and Beijing calls it “blackmail”.
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