The Big Picture For Silver
After silver’s pop mid week a lot of people were very excited. However the metal had not broken even a short term top. Doc joins me to look at the big picture for silver and the monthly chart. This is the most important chart to understand what is happening in this market.
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Paul, as I’ve mentioned for some time, it looks like we’re moving lower into May. It should be close whether we take out 1300. If we don’t, it’s a good bet we see it happen with the next intermediate cycle. I’m not really concerned at this point how low we go in gold/silver since I believe the odds of them breaking down significantly is just not there. I believe it’s just time now before we get this bull market really smoking. I can just feel it intuitively as well in the technicals. The key to watch is the 50 month SMA on the monthly chart. As long as that isn’t compromised, I’ll stay strongly bullish.
Paul, we’ll move below $17 again with silver and not in the distant future.
Agreed Doc. For me it happens early next week. Low to mid 16 range is possible.
Doc, are you and Al coming to Houston for Barbara Bush’s funeral? Melania, the Clintons, Obongos, Bushes, and world leaders will be there, and St. Martin’s is just 2 miles from my hacienda. I wonder if Gorby and Putin are coming? No guns are allowed at the service so I won’t go as I never go anywherte without my .44 And I always thought Ronald Reagan’s worst mistake was picking Bush for his VP instead of Jack Kemp.
That’s a lot of power for a carry gun, Bonzo — unless you’ve got a bear problem. 😉
Matthew…He needs his .44, judging by the list of animals he just wrote, there is going to be a lot of evil critters attending.
Matthew, it’s not a .44 magnum, just a special. I could load it with magnum when I’m in bear country. I wonder if the Carters and Gores are coming? Or Assad? The traffic will be a mess.
I used to carry a 475 Linebaugh in grizzly country. It was a handful and packed twice the energy of the .44 Magnum…
https://youtu.be/jWDxfVnkSC8?t=387
That sounds like enough gun for a cape buffalo! Must kick like a mule. I was kidding about the .44; I really have a .38 S&W special CTG 6-gun which is a pleasure to shoot. If I need more power I have a Winchester 30/30 and 12 ga
The .475 is actually enough gun for every animal that walks and has taken them all. In penetration tests done about 20 years ago, it beat the rifles in the test which included the .375 H&H Magnum.
A short session with my hand loaded 440 grain solids always caused my middle finger (the one behind the trigger guard) to swell for over a week. It was fun though!
The guy who developed it easily shoots it with one hand…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DZdfdAuxCA
How much costs the .475 and ammo? I think I’ll stick with my .38 as it is very accurate and won’t hurt my hands and spoil my guitar playing. I love my Taylor 810 guitar even more than my .38 special CTG
About $3.25 per round for high quality loads…
https://www.buffalobore.com/index.php?l=product_list&c=33
Mine was very accurate but definitely wouldn’t have helped with the guitar.
bonzo…I’m coming as my loo is out of order, i will pop into yours afterwards for a cuppa & a chat…………..see you soon..BTW dont forget the biscuits…..
My first day in England was in April 1973. I went into a restaurant and ordered tea and biscuits off the menu. The waitress brought me tea a saltine crackers. I said, “Where are my biscuits?” She pointed at the crackers. I felt cheated. I learned that in England biscuits are called crackers. What I call biscuits are scones in England. So what do you mean by biscuits in Ireland?
You learn something new everyday!
Al, don’t order biscuits in England. Order hot buttered scones with jam or honey.
And don’t shoot anyone in self defense unless you want to go to prison.
In America the biscuits are a treat, and we are still allowed to shoot people to defend ourselves and loved ones.
It’s worse than that Doc. The crackheads over at Elmendorf will steal your stuff faster than a pack of red ants on a snow cone.
This is getting good………..What a bunch of …..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-20/democratic-party-sues-russia-trump-wikileaks-conspiring-hurt-hillary-2016-election
First of all they are never going to collect from Russia……..what a bunch of retards.
Dummies are broke, and Hilly is going to get broker…….
Rothschilds , are throwing her under the bus……..jmo
Sorry Jerry, throwing whom under the bus?
Hilly…..under the bus……….jmo
Dummies are usually broke because they don’t know any better. I don’t agree with you that Hilary is going to get broker. It could happen, OOTB, but she and Bill are very calculating. But then again so were Bonnie and Clyde!
Don’t kid your self. Hillary is cooked.
If I understand the situation correctly, I believe that she deserves it
I smell fried “chicken”………….Hilly is on the cooker…….
Jerry……….Is it still April the 1st……………….HaHaHa
These people have lost their marbles.
Last Friday I commentd on hew pretty this GDX daily chart is:
But the follow-through this week was not what I hoped it would be, and with indicators getting overbought, my risk-reward ratio no longer seemed favorable. So far I’m still out, will look to get in at the next DCL.
I don’t mean to be alarmist, and I don’t think a huge fall is high probability…but one thing I agree with Spanky on is that the precious metals sector, like no other, seems to like to kick us in the nads just when we start to get our hopes up.
If I were an unscrupulous big operator, this would be a great time to smash the miners and run the stops.
Spanky, I hope you’ve got a better contingency plan than just taking whatever the market gives you. Stops, hedges, etc. Taking a big ride down into the red is no fun, and wouldn’t actually be hilarious. Been there, done that, I don’t recommend it.
If you don’t have the confidence to control your risk by entering and exiting countercyclically, why not subscribe to a proven service like Jeff Kern, or Rick Ackerman. No one’s infallible, but it’s unlikely you’ll lose your shirt following their lead.
But again, to be clear, I am bullish beyond the very short term, and am looking to get back into the miners on the next sector daily cycle low.
I am going to watch SILJ as a proxy. It’s 144 and 233 WMAs have positively crossed and it’s basically sitting on the 144 WMA currently. The weekly BB’s are tight but the upper band is bent slightly upwards. The weekly MACD and stochs are supportive of further upside. At this point, IMO, SILJ has no business dropping below the 233 WMA. If it does, that will be a terrible sign. I will definitely be freaking out some if we get remotely close to that MA in the next few weeks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p24006401075&a=589853689&listNum=1
My miners have already rallied huge off their lows. They are going to have to crash silver for me to start sweating now. Hell, I can still see AXU hitting $1.06 and its at $1.60 right now.
GH – I considered the nad-kickin’ nature of the PM sector and did a little trimming on some of my miners yesterday and today. Many had very nice increases over over the last few weeks, and definitely from their Dec lows, so it seemed wise to lighten the load a bit and free up some dry powder.
Personally I went in heavy at the end of last year and have done a good job of sitting on my hands and letting the move up in many of them gradually run their course. However, I’ve had a nagging worry about being over-exposed to the PMs and a little under exposed in other sectors, so I wanted to rotate a few of the funds around.
To be clear, I’ve still got very healthy core positions several dozen companies to participate in gold and silver stocks if things continue upwards, but felt so many were rallying that it was a good time to sell a percentage of the positions into the strength, and manage the position sizing.
Ever Upward!
The silver chart is awesome. I don’t know which way it’s going to go, but wow. Will it breakdown Monday and fill the gap, or is this a breakout gap to a trend change? Too friggin hard to call..
If silver does break down, it won’t be by much IMO.
Thanks Doc. Very informative and encouraging information.
Another failure by gold. Whilst it didnt hit the 1360 region, 1355 is pretty close. It backed off some 2%. Now we sit in no mans land… again!
It is interesting how many times that region has been tested but it will break in due time.
This continued failure action is certainly interesting Excelsior. I hope due time is sometime this year.
haha! Me too.
(EXK) (EDR) Endeavour Silver Corp.
April 17, 2018 – European Gold Forum – #CorporatePresentation #Video
#Silver #Gold #Producer #Mexico
http://www.europeangoldforum.org/egf18/company-webcast/EXK:US/
Doc are you still looking for gold to break below 1300 in May, if so wouldn’t silver fall below 17 or has something changed in your gold outlook for May that you been forcasting for last couple months?