This Is A Selective PM Stock Rise
Doc joins me today to share some insights on what is happening in his metals portfolio. With gold moving up again today on the back on a falling dollar he is seeing that only select stocks are joining in. We also look at a couple other resource sectors that Doc sees as having some nice upside.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Meant to ask Doc if he expects UEC to fill the gap down at the $1.15-1.120 level?
SD; if we take out $1.45, yes. I believe the odds are we take out that level.
*While most Uranium companies are still sitting on their exploration or development projects, or larger producers are capsizing, it is the smaller in-situ miners with solid off-take agreements that are forging ahead.
I remain very impressed with Ur-Energy for selling all of 2017 at an average of $49 per pound, and then buying over 500,000 lbs of Uranium on the spot markets for an average price of $21.35 to sell into their off-take agreements in the high $40’s.
One of the few production success stories in the Uranium sector, and most investors have still never even heard of it. 🙂
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$URG $URE Ur-Energy Provides 2017 Q4 Operational Results – January 11, 2018 #Uranium
“In 2017, sales totaled $38.3 million from 780,000 pounds sold. Our overall price per pound sold averaged $49.09. There were no spot sales during the year. A total of 261,000 pounds were sold from Lost Creek #production. Additionally, we delivered 519,000 purchased pounds into contractual obligations. Purchases for these deliveries averaged $21.35 per pound.”
Big picture, I believe the uranium bear ended in 2016, where it entered a basing stage. Barring another nuclear meltdown, I would expect the uranium market to rocket upward one of these days.
But it looks like we get another correction here, giving another good buying op. Lucky us–given the price action vs the 200 week simple moving average, I wouldn’t be surprised if the coming lows are the last look we get at these levels.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URA&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77161663486&a=499818847
Yes, that U chart better shows the correlation to the Uranium spot price that bottomed in late 2016 and mid 2017. After a terrible Bear market since 2011 the Uranium market FINALLY put it in it’s double bottom.
Now…… Let’s get on with the new baby bull already …. 🙂
GH good chart. My thesis is that we saw the Major Double Bottom in Uranium when it got down to $18 in late 2016 and mid 2017, however that URA chart is revealing in that it indicates that miners started to move up leading the spot pricing though.
I’m not a fan of how heavily weighted URA is to Cameco and Nexgen and how under represented many other companies are, but since Nexgen moved so strongly in 2016 and 2017 compared to most peers it likely skewed URA’s results more so than if one follows most of the other JRs.
Regardless, I love it when the miners lead the underlying commodity higher, and out when they outperform on a percentage basis.
I added to my Uranium miners in November before Thanksgiving and have enjoyed the move up since then. Most of the Uranium miners have put in a stealth rally and have done quite nicely the last few months.
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> 3 month comparative Bar Chart of Uranium Stocks:
(Some of the smaller Jrs are starting to outperform the larger cap companies)
$CCO $EFR $URE $DML $UEC $NXE $FCU $UEX $PLU $GXU
Good point on the miners vs the spot price–I hadn’t noticed.
I wish there were tools to make it easy to create custom-made indices…the only one I’ve seen is at stockcharts, but for non-pro users I think it only allows one.
Agreed GH. Yeah, when I saw the $18 Uranium price in Nov 2016 I bought with both hands as I knew that was rubbish and could not last. Honestly, Uranium prices in the mid $20’s is still rubbish, but I figured that $18 level would need to be tested one more time. It was in 2017 and then has moved steadily up from there, so that is what I was looking for personally.
I hadn’t noticed the move in URA preceding it until this evening though, because I hold and manage my own portfolio of stocks and don’t like the weighting in URA.
* There are also many interesting Aussie Uranium mining companies, but stockcharts sucks for ASX listed companies. It makes it hard to do an expanded index of the Uranium miners, but at least those above are many of the more popular US and Canadian listed companies that folks follow.
Everything #Newton on Anaconda Mining $ANX
Would you believe that I’ve written over 20 articles on Anaconda Mining (TSX:ANX)? Well, I have and the story keeps getting better.
To start off this new year, I’d like to take a look back at the articles I’ve published on the company. Make sure to have a look at CEO.CA/ANX for even more colour commentary along the way.
https://ceo.ca/@newton/everything-newton-on-anaconda-mining-anx
+1 Markedtofuture.
Peter Newton Bell is the man!
Doc, what do you think about AUG Auryn, CMBPF New Range Gold corp, GPL Great Panther Silver, RPMGF Rye Patch, SZSMF Santa Cruz silver, and BALMF Balmoral Resources and where they stand at this point?
I’ve been swing trading Santacruz Silver (SCZ) (SZSMF) all of 2017 and had a few good trades to kick off 2018.
Most investors are unaware of all the good work that they did last year to set the table for a much better 2018. They divested 3 different projects to First Majestic, Marlin Gold, and Americas Silver last year, and paid down their debt burden that market was punishing them for, and it is like nobody noticed.
They still have 2 mines, and while keep working on bringing down their costs, the metal prices will be rising into year end and this little Silver / Zinc Producer could really take off on a percentage basis and surprise the hell out of investors this year.
I like Rye Patch (RPM) (RPMGF) as well, and if anyone is following along they are ahead of schedule on the tons processed and should be going into commercial production in the first half of 2018. That could be the catalyst that gets more eyeballs watching their story.
Rye Patch is also about to clean up their share count by doing a 1 for every 6.5 shares so that should help attract investors that were spooked by the higher share count. It is timed out well with the move into commercial production.
Once the dust settles from that I’m considering adding a bit more.
Suggest you hold out for the post-financing bloodletting. RPM has a heavy debt load and will need to raise cash. Further dilution is coming, at favourable terms to those participating. And don’t forget the warrants.
Thanks Rand. You do raise a good point to consider. They may do a bit more financing to raise (w/ warrants), post share consolidation, so that may dilute things down a bit further.
However, consider also that their production is already ramping up ahead of schedule and they should be able to monetize that to apply towards the debt, so it isn’t like they are operating in a vacuum as just a developer — They technically already are producing gold/silver and revenues.
The vast majority of new producers in their first year or two have to raise additional funds, as they ramp and optimize their production, so that would be par for the course. However, the markets will also counter-balancing that against their expected rising production numbers and rising metals prices.
I do agree that it may be best to wait until the dust settles post consolidation, and if they announce the financing to position though.
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RYE PATCH GOLD ANNOUNCES FLORIDA CANYON Q4 2017 PRODUCTION • 10,470 OUNCES OF GOLD PRODUCED • 4,069 OUNCES OF GOLD PRODUCED IN DECEMBER • COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION ACHIEVED IN DECEMBER
– Produced 10,470 ounces of gold and 5,447 ounces of silver in Q4;
– Mined 2,372,000 tons of ore (30 percent above Plan);
– Crushed 2,291,000 tons of ore (27 percent above Plan);
– Placed 25,434 ounces of gold on the pad;
– Maintained a consistent gold grade of 0.011 opt including over liner material; and
– Realized a stripping ratio of 0.55 which is significantly lower than Plan.
– Gold production continued its upward trend, increasing 31 percent in Q4 compared to Q3. In December, gold production was 4,069 ounces of gold and 1,996 ounces of silver.
– Total precious metal production for the fourth quarter was 10,470 ounces of gold and 5,447 ounces of silver.
“Gold sales benefited from a combination of selling into the forward sales contract and spot price with a realized gold price of $1,278. Silver was sold at spot price during the quarter and realized an average price of $16.65. A total of 9,532 ounces of gold and 6,756 ounces of silver were sold during the quarter.”
Pardu, I owned santa cruz and great panther in the past. I’ve just started to take a position in balmoral and will add a little on pullbacks. I’m waiting to take a position in AUG in the near future—not investment advice.
Thanks, Not investment advice taken. I too am waiting for a pullback in AUG.
Moi aussi.
Good Gold chart from Goldfinger:
@Goldfinger – “$Gold really has a bullish look to it here:”
One Chart I am Watching Closely Right Now
The Hedgeless Horseman – January 11, 2018
“Major support and resistance breaks in this chart has signalled major trends in gold and the miners during the last couple of years. We seem to be on the cusp of another perhaps important break down. Last time the GVI/GLD ratio broke major support, the miners started one of the most furious rallies in history (seen in bottom HUI graph). What’s more is that the miners were lagging gold until that break out occurred… Which is happening right now as well.”
http://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/chart-of-the-day/one-chart-watching-closely-right-now/
All but one of my positions was up today so it’s been broad-based for me. Large, medium, small, and even the tiny stuff moved up nicely (for example: CBG.v +25%; RZL.v +50%).
What we have is a high risk/high reward situation that just became significantly less risky for the bulls.
If there are more laggards than usual, I’m sure they will join in once it becomes clear that the next leg up has started.
I think the daily chart is keeping a lot of people nervous since the current action looks similar to the last two short term tops. What people are missing is the way those tops look on the weekly chart. The weekly chart trumps the daily and, on it, the current action looks nothing like it did at the last two short term tops. The same goes for the important monthly chart.
The silver miners went up very nicely while silver went down today and, priced in silver, SILJ broke out today. This action is more than just a little bullish in my book.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3A%24SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p39931218022
Yeah, there were a number of Jr miners popping today even though the metals were muted. Very good to see action like what we are seeing with the miners leading the charge.
I’ve been a buyer all week and picked up a lot more IPT when someone sold a ton of it quickly on Tuesday (second highest daily volume of the year)…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=10&id=p38664228371&a=568964346
I added more IPT today as well. Last week I figured that there would be a pullback coming and it arrived earlier this week. Love it! 🙂
I sure didn’t expect the dump on Tuesday but I bought it. I can’t remember ever seeing over 600,000 shares of that stock trade in 10 minutes.
Earlier this week many commentators were starting to throw in the towel on the PM rally and I figured after such as strong run out of Dec 13th Fed meeting that there would be across the board selling at the end of last week and earlier this week.
However, when it pulled back on such volume I thought it was due to the news release about switching their exploration focus a bit (which I saw as a huge positive). I went back and read it again today before buying just to make sure there wasn’t some “gotcha” in it, but overall I like the direction Impact is taking.
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IMPACT Silver provides Exploration Update on Santa Teresa gold target, Royal Mines of Zacualpan, Central Mexico
CNW Group – January 8, 2018
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/impact-silver-provides-exploration-santa-110000443.html
I don’t know how anyone could read that news and want to hit the bid. It’s pretty exciting stuff.
Maybe the seller (still Resolute Funds?) used the interest caused by the news to unload.
I was initially thinking that some may not like the increased focus on gold exploration, but they are still mostly focused on Silver. It may have been a fund that wanted to wait until 2018 to take the loss if they positioned higher in 2017. Who knows….
Regardless, I added back the position today that I had just trimmed at higher prices last week , so overall it was a good swing trade. The volatility in the miners lately has been a blast for trading.
I bought more too but didn’t get it right at the bottom. This company is a survivor at the very least. I also happily own some Santacruz SCZ.
Nice Dan calgary. I’ve got a nice Santacruz Silver (SCZ) position going as well, at cost basis that currently near parity here at $.13. Let the games begin !! (haha!)
I believe they should get re-rated later in 2018, with most of their debt now paid off and with them working on efficiencies at both their Silver/Zinc mines while metals prices are creeping higher. If Silver gets back up near $20 again, then they’ll really start to move as their economics start improving substantially.
SVB has already taken out its 2016 high (but is now weekly overbought):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVB.TO&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=22&id=p63697711327&a=555629591
To be clear, that “but” does not mean that it can’t go significantly higher before correcting/pausing.
Ron Paul on the Anarchist:
January 11, 2018
Sara Carter: Investigator met with AP before joining Mueller
Sara Carter explains on ‘Hannity’ what she has learned from her sources; Gregg Jarrett and ‘Clinton Cash’ author Peter Schweizer react.
The Dow does not look appealing at all to me and is downright ugly when priced in SILJ:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p78319263673&a=569661227
‘The odds are high the half-cycle low in GDX is in’
https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2018/01/chart-day-rsi.html
I agree.
On the day of the low after GDX hit 22.97…
On January 9, 2018 at 11:21 am,
Matthew says:
If the picture really is as bullish as I’ve been saying it is, then we could already have a low:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p87685153219&a=568951369
‘Oil formed a bearish reversal on Thursday’
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2018/01/11/oil-forms-bearish-reversal/
Oil priced in gold is weekly overbought and at resistance:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=13&id=p39102530587&a=511956429
I sold 80% of my Primero for a tax loss 2 weeks ago, and AG just offered more than 3 times a share what I sold mine for! I hope Matthew kept his PPP.
Bonzo, I have no Primero at all. I didn’t want to risk ending up with the sorry thing going nowhere while all the quality companies took off. In other words, if there weren’t so many good deals on other miners at the time, I might have kept some. But maybe not — what a sorry management team.
Thank goodness I saved back a core position in Primero until after their break dead point of January 11th that they had publicized. I looked all yesterday for they were going to do, and was stunned that there was no news after the long wait and push backs. This morning’s action was music to my ears though. 🙂
This move on the First Majestic news really helps out some of the losses I’ve taken in (P), but it still far below my cost basis. I decided to trim back part of the remaining position just a few minutes ago into this strength & liquidity and kept a tiny position in place to see where this may go.
Primero Mining Corp. (P.TO)
$0.27 up +$0.15 (+125.00% gain)
As of 9:33AM EST. Market open.
The exchange rate is .03325 share of FR.TO (currently at $8.27) for every 1 share of (P).
If First Majestic rallies on rising silver prices before this deal is consummated, then it can pull up the value of the Primero shares in tandem.
It isn’t a happy ending because overall this was my largest personal investing mistake of 2017, but this last chapter went much better than I was expecting.
I have a position in MUX to capitalize on their acquisition of the Black Fox Mine & Mill, and I have also have a position in Argonaut who scooped up their Cerro del Gallo development project.
I may hang on to my final core position in P to let it convert to First Majestic so I would retain exposure to San Dimas, and in a sense I have the guts of Primero buried in McEwen, Argonaut, and First Majestic – which are all FAR more solid operators.
Ever Upward!
I’ll trade my remaining shares of Primero for AG and when silver and AG go to 100 I’ll recoup my losses. I wish I had sold PPP@8.00 when I had the chance!
Wow. I didn’t start getting positioned in PPP until to the $.70’s and $.60s, but traded it back and forth down to the $.06’s….. Overall my cost was $.3348 for a while, but I got impatient in tax loss selling for the same reasons Matthew mentioned above and raised it up some to $.377.
After today’s bump in price & liquidity, I continued trimming so now I’m around $.496 cost basis. It is getting higher but the size of the position is shrinking, but for the first time in a long time I see a light at the end of the tunnel.
If the Primero/First Majestic shares can just double from here, then I’ll come out after this long saga at a wash. (however the opportunity cost of sitting on these Primero shares definitely hurt the capital I could have deployed into much better stocks).
Most likely I’ll have to let the Primero shares convert over to First Majestic shares to get a double out of the remaining position and emerge unscathed. I’ll need a $17 FR price and then I’m out like a scout on a new route…..
The good news is that today’s jolt up allowed me trim it back and free up some cash to deploy elsewhere. I’ve been peppering it into 4 more stocks today that I like far better, so it’s a great way to close up the week, and for Primero to finally have an exit strategy.
I was worried they’d go bankrupt and I’d lose the whole thing. (dodged a bullet on this one).
The drilling on the joint venture with evrim seems promising for AG
AG also picked up that asset of Santacruz mining this last year that could be a zinger.
I bought into mux this past week….after all it’s run by the winner of the kitco ceo award..😉
I’ve been building a position in MUX since the end of last year as well.
It looks like a safe 2-4 bagger from here Rob does a good job at the helm. Like we’ve discussed, their Copper project is a huge sleeper that most are completely unaware of, and their Gold and Silver assets are only growing. Aside from their pickup of the Black Fox mine/mill from Primero this year, they also acquired Rob’s exploration company Lexam Resources last year and got all their assets, and they are using excess capacity at Black Fox to mill the ore being shipped over for tolling from the newest Gold Producer in that area – Sage Gold.
I like MUX for 2018 as a solid mid tier. I also have good sized positions in Argonaut and Resolute Mining for other good Mid-tiers, and Jaguar & Blackham Resources for companies that will be mid-tiers by the end of 2018.
I have a bunch of smaller Gold producers that I believe are Turn-around stories and “Fixer-Uppers” for this year like Troy Resources, K92 Mining, Golden Queen, Mandalay, Metanor, Anaconda, Comstock, Red Eagle, and Scorpio Gold.
There are also a few new producers I’m speculating on like Mexus, Superior, Sage, Monarques, Orefinders, and Resource Capital Gold Corp.
The rest are developers, explorers, prospect generators/royalty companies.
Have looked to get into anx but it ran before I bought in and I hate to chase …..for producers I really like b2gold
Yeah, there are plenty of interesting small to medium producers to chose from and B2Gold looks nice as well. Several folks over at ceo have been animated by it’s prospects for 2018.
As for ANX I’m in from last summer at much lower prices, so I’m fine with whatever happens. Medium to longer term it’s going up much higher.
Anybody have any thoughts on the “new” Canadian producer Superior Gold. A few people have brought it up as undervalued (likely due to lack of visibility in marketplace). Basically they just took over the Plutonic Gold Mine in Australia that has been producing for the last 2 decades, but they believe they can optimize the production & exploration there into rising gold prices in this bull market.
Their valuation does look compelling at these levels, but I’m still looking at Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats.
Superior Gold – Corporate Presentation – December 2017
(CZX) (CZXMF) Canada Zinc Metals Announces Completion of Initial Earn-in On the Pie Option Properties
Jan 11, 2018
“Canada Zinc Metals Corp. (CZX) is pleased to announce that Teck Resources Limited (TSX: TECK.B) and Korea Zinc Co. Ltd. have delivered to the Company an exercise notice regarding the Optionees’ First Option on the Pie, Yuen and Cirque East properties.”
https://ceo.ca/@fscwire/canada-zinc-metals-announces-completion-of-initial
The Canadian dollar stalled precisely at fork resistance today but will not be kept back for long:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p37605586167&a=569545502
Matthew – I’d enjoy hearing any feedback from you on (SGI) Superior Gold mentioned up above. It is one that I’m nibbling at but may consider getting more serious with this year.
Their valuation metrics compared to many other small to mid-size producers (they listed Roxgold, Richmont, Premier, Wesdome, Klondex, Argonaut, and Brio on their presentation as peers). I’m considering comparing them to Guyana Goldfields, Eldorado Gold, B2Gold, and Northern Star for a few more comparables.
I believe they’re on track to do 80,000 – 90,000 ounces per year in production, and will be over 100,000K ounces in 2019, so it reminds me of the valuation Jaguar has at present.
I still like JAG better, but SGI looks intriguing hereto me. I’m likely missing something so thought I’d throw this one up on the chopping block for anyone’s comments or feedback.
Ex, it looks like a relative bargain to me and I would buy it before the likes of Richmont or Argonaut, etc. In addition, it is debt free and, for those worried about diversification, offers exposure to a jurisdiction that most readers probably don’t have.
I do not own it.
Cool. Thanks for the feedback Matthew. Yes, I like having a debt free Canadian run Aussie producer in the mix. 🙂
Correction, it will likely be 80,000 ounces for 2017, but 100,000 in 2018. You get the idea though.
Here are some of the stats for quick reference:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SGI.V/key-statistics?p=SGI.V
Owner Percentage
Northern Star 19.2%
Sentry Investments 13.5%
Board and Management 8.7%
Sprott 8.7%
Greywolf 8.4%
JP Morgan 5.2%
Hadron 3.3%
Donald Smith 1.7%
There are warrants and options out there too, so the fully diluted share count should be around 119 M.
Ex+Matt,
are we looking at a false breakout here? The PM stock are not even close to reflecting the $12+ move above key resistance in gold. Should we see a reversal tomorrow? Is this why the PM stocks are not moving??
Gold is at $1335.70 and Silver is at $17.18 at the moment, so I’m not overly concerned. I expected a pullback after the initial 16 dayuptrend in the PMs coming out of the FOMC rate hike on the 13th, and we saw that at the end of last week into the beginning of last week. Now things are moving again, but it remains to be seen if the 2016 and 2017 highs are probable on this particular leg up.
PM stocks have been moving nicely the last few weeks and today’s action looks fine to me. GDX up over 2% GDXJ up 2.66% GOEX up 3.09% SIL up 1.83% SILJ up 1.83%. Many of the stocks I hold have been up far more than that lately and today, so overall it still looks constructive.
Gary Wagner mentioned last month and a few weeks back that he was expecting a rally up to $1330-$1340 before correcting back down, and then a succeeding rally that would takeout the $1362 high from 2017 and the 1377 high from 2016, into the mid 1450’s.
My initial thought was a move up to the $1330-$1340, and a test to see if it could keep going higher above that resistance. If so we could make a run at the highs from the last 2 years. However, if Gold is rejected around these levels, then I’m prepared for a pullback to $1280.
I believe it is real but we will know soon. The beginning of important moves are always a little chaotic since most participants are on the wrong side.
It does look like Gary Wagner is right; at least with this recent top. I was hoping for more robust gains to sell off into. Too late for that now. I guess this can be seen as low sentiment for this whole 3 week move. JAG is down 1.3%, Excellon down 1%. I guess PM’s are telling us we are at the end of this move. .
Thanks Ex.
It would be a logical place for resistance to smack Gold back down. That is why if Gold were to break through it may give it the momentum to pull more money off the sidelines to fuel it up to test the highs from the last 2 years. If that happens the miners will go screaming higher. We’re still closing the week on a constructive note, and a number of stocks are also up for the day and week.
Whether next week is a breakout or breakdown will be interesting, but whatever happens, it already has been a nice run out of mid December. It could turn into a stellar run higher (which would be nice) but it seems like most commentators believe there will be a pullback from here. I can see the case for either position, but I’m positioned to benefit from a further move higher, and I’d just have to weather the pullback. Trimming lately in some stocks still has provided the liquidity to raise a little dry powder for a rainy day. 🙂
Cheers!
Guys, I think we already had Gary Wagner’s pullback. It just happened a little lower than he might have expected.
Like I said two years ago when the 2016 move had just begun: look at the weekly chart more than the daily. This move is just getting started. (No, nothing is 100% but this picture could hardly look better to me.)
That’s a good point about the weekly versus the daily, and you were correct in 2016 in a similar start to that move higher.
We might have just seen Gary’s pullback, but I was expecting it to pull back down into the $1280 area where all that prior resistance and congestion was. In a ttue bull market though, things never pull back as far as most projections would indicate.
As previously mentioned, I’m still loaded to the gills with mining stocks and even did a little buying yesterday and today, so if this rally just keep moving higher, it will be fine by me. Maybe it will and most traders that are not even positioned yet will be thrown off the bull’s back once again. (lol).
The miners broke above the speed lines and last week’s high… as long as we don’t sell off into the close, the picture looks great:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p40174271742&a=504250724
Agree with Doc. We need some sellers in the conventional markets in order to get some funds looking for a new home. Bought a small position in QID, betting on that happening before too long, certainly this qtr. JMO.