Media Mania re: Greece
Rick Honsinger of Formation Metals brought this to my attention. I want to bring it to yours.
James B,
All I can say is I am scared too and at the same time I hope that we all have prepared effectively for a big financial mess!
Let’s keep communicating so we can continue to learn from each other.
Best,
Big Al
Hi James,
I ran some comparative analysis on various nations about 4 years ago. I haven’t kept up with all the stats, but with 2006 figures, Canada, the US and Australia all had about “equal prospects”. Around 60% GDP in national debt, maturing work forces, etc. Canada and Aus had the benefit of being net exporters, thanks to natural resource exports, and the per-capita $ they created.
That all changed in 2008. Though the Harper government is borrowing an appalling amount of money which just isn’t necessary (because Canada’s economy doesn’t require stimulus or even the guise of stimulus), here in the US we’ve just gone off the scale. The figures aren’t released yet, but total US federal debt (published) will come in around $15 trillion, for a GDP of $14 trillion, or around 105% of GDP. Canada is still just at 68% or so…not great, but much better than the US. That’s just federal debt. When you add shadow debt the Fed created 2 years ago, I think a case is made the US is well over 130% of GDP. Scary.
Canada’s challenge (and Australia’s) is the entitlements to baby-boomers are more expensive than that of the US. When we get down to the 2 workers for every 1 retiree in 10 years, the money for these and every western nation just won’t be there. But it will be exacerbated if China hard-lands and doesn’t need as many raw materials as so many are projecting. Less money than budgeted, occurring right at a time when more money is needed. Of course, I think you know most of the above, but in this regard, Canada quite deservedly earns the title of being in better financial shape than most of the world’s nations. Perhaps if I can update the spreadsheet with 2011 numbers, I’ll see if we can put it up somewhere. It was quite educational for ourselves, dissolving some preconceived notions about this-or-that country.
I agree with James B. There is no solution to this mess. The article did mention how they will look to the G20 for a solution and we all know where that will end.
Karen,
This weekend will be really interesting.
I would bet that the news will not be great, because I don’t see how it could be.
I truly hope that I am wrong,
Big Al
Karen,
It’s just ridiculous, isn’t it? They’re trying to create new money six-ways-to-Sunday, can’t do it, and now want the G20 to have a go. There isn’t enough money. Period. That’s the problem. Too much has been spent, but no one wanted the party to end.
Do you remember, less than 2 years ago, when bond holders started (justifiably) asking for a little more interest on loaned money? Policy leaders in the EU actually chastised the ‘free market’ for not making affordable loans to nations like Greece. It was their fault, not Greece’s, for not loaning billions more to a bankrupt nation for 3% interest. Again, that was less than 2 years ago.
Now (with respect to some of our Euro readers who like the EU as it is) they insist on keeping the EU together at all costs. Normally, I’d say “Great!”, but it could mean bankrupting the whole EU as well. Rather than eliminating Greece, they want to got to the G20 with tin cups and beg, hoping to keep even more borrowed money rushing in.
Today’s drop in world markets, but on a very modest drop in metals, tells me the world of hedge and sovereign funds may finally be understanding this issue is about ready to end very ungracefully.
Morning JW,
I had an interesting discuss with a friend, Bahman Yamini, up in Vancouver yesterday.
HIs idea is that the European nations will and probably should let Greece go and at the same time shore up their own individual banks. Kind of makes sense doesn’t it?
Just for fun I am going to do a Daily Editorial and this in an hour or so to get more clarification in my mind and to see what you all think.
I must tell you, we had lunch at Shaughnesy Golf and then I went downtown for meetings. What a great city. Kathy and I are helping Steph out with an apartment (pretty darn expensive up there) and we have decided to spend two to three days/week there. What a great city you are from!
Big Al
You’re a great guy helping family get set-up…because it certainly is expensive! Beautiful golf course, Shaughnesy. I need to get back and see some family myself…I’ll drop you a line if I drive up via the coast instead of fly…
HI John W,
For sure let me know.
Big Al
I think there are solutions and these solutions will be found, the choice is orderly or chaotic but the situation will be resolved. personally i think it starts with the currencies, at the moment we have corrupt currencies so we have corruption from top to bottom. try “the money masters” Bill Schill u tube about 3 hrs, he explains currencies its history and how we end up where we are. after thats fixed we need democracy, Plato writes about that “the republic”. From there everything around the world for everyone gets better, the real issue becomes how do we achieve it without useing nuclear bombs. How do we rest control from the psychopaths.
HI Ben,
I will have an interesting editorial tomorrow based on a conversation that I had earlier up here in Vancouver, B.C.
Long and the short of it is that has anyone considered letting Greece go and then each country support their own banks.
Kind of an interesting idea and I will elaborate on it tomorrow.
Best,
Big Al
Thanks Al for that newspaper. Interesting stuff.
I found this today, one of the best reads I have read for awhile. Where do things Come from. I wish more people thought like Joel:
http://www.thedailybell.com/3176/Joel-F-Wade-Where-Do-Things-Come-From
Since this whole thread was started by Rick Honsinger of Formation, I thought I’d just mention that I went over Formation metals quite thoroughly this weekend.
I think some employees and long-term share-holders have been burned-out over the last decade with inconsistent revenue. A moderate number of shares have also been issued over the years to principals and employees…understandable as compensation and motivation, but that’s undoubtedly another factor in sending it’s price down to .45 or so, as the ‘net available for common’ has been very little. Shares have gone from a once-breathtaking $33 in 1997 to today’s .47/sh.
The company has made significant re-investment in several properties, but most of interest in the high-purity cobalt operation in Idaho. That plant will increase it’s 2010 stated revenue by 7-8 times if it sells all the product at $22/lb, which it seems like it could, due to policy at domestic aerospace customers. If one discounts 10 years of earnings, and deducts the plant’s cost of $140 million plus $15 million/year for labour (the latter my guess), the net revenue would value the company between $8 and 12/share. That’s nice potential from where it is today, even if revenue comes in lower. I can see why Al likes the company. I also like the presentation of their financial reports, as they do not try to hide notes and special expenses or income. My only other concern is consistency in cobalt demand (which is now tracked as a commodity on the London exchange, I beleive?) Electric cars and airplanes are the biggees. Even with a souring economy over the next 5 years, there’s a lot of backed-up orders at Boeing and Lockheed. Honeywell is a big employer here in Phoenix, and I watch their activity closely. They’re hiring to beat the band because of airplane orders.
I have never owned the stock, though I’d like to take a position. Not an investment advisor either. I just thought I might summarize some findings which others here may find of interest.
Thanks John W,
Appreciate your taking some time to look into this.
I have known Mary Ann and Scott for a very long time. I do have a lot of respect for them along with Rick Honsinger.
Cecil Andrus is also someone I respect.
The management team and the asset make this one that, I think, is a pretty good situation.
I have not bought any stock yet, but Peter Grandich did purchase about 1/2 million shares recently.
I am thinking about maybe taking $10K out of TD Bank stock and re-investing it in Formation. Will take a bit of thinking on my part.
Best,
Big Al
Wow…about to enter this morning and it’s up 25%! Still lots of upside potential…happy if it’s helped Matthew. Make sure you do a bit of diligence on your part too (i know you would anyways)…
More info always helps! It’s up 35% currently. Am hoping for a pullback to add to my position. I obviously should have taken a bigger position in the first place. You are right about due diligence and that’s exactly why don’t have a big stake. My hands are already full so I’ve been unable to take a closer look so far.
I agree that there is plenty of upside. Being a cobalt play, it might require patience though (barring significant company developments of course). Now it’s up “only” 33%!
Anyway, thanks again.
I too thank you for the info John. This looks like a relatively low risk spec, especially when you also consider that even with today’s 30% rise, Formation is still trading for cash in the bank.
A BBC World Service survey in 25 countries has found strikingly different attitudes to the economic outlook between rich and developing countries.
In the rich world, consumers were pessimistic, while in emerging economies people were more upbeat.
It is a pattern that reflects the very uneven recovery from the recent global recession.
More than 25,000 people were surveyed by the polling firm Globescan.
Japan, France and Britain emerged as particularly gloomy. The percentage expecting good times in all three countries was in single figures. More than half expected bad times.
Recession danger
The picture across the rich world was one of pessimists outnumbering the optimists, though by smaller margins.
The one exception to this pattern was Germany, where 36% expected good or mostly good times, well ahead of those who were downbeat. Even there, the optimists were outnumbered by those expecting a mix of good and bad times ahead.
In the developing world, optimists outnumbered pessimists in nearly every country surveyed. In Nigeria more than seventy per cent expected good times. The results were strongly upbeat in Kenya and Egypt as well.
There was one exception, Pakistan, where pessimists were slightly more numerous. In Russia, Chile and Ecuador, the optimists were only just ahead.
The difference in attitudes does broadly reflect recent economic performance: strong growth in many emerging economies, sluggishness in the rich world.
It is also consistent with most forecasts, which suggest an increasing danger of at least some developed economies sliding back into recession.
The research was done between July and September this year.
Since then the situation in the world’s biggest economic trouble spot – the eurozone – has moved on and in some respects the uncertainty there has deepened.
Your comments (3
It may be a bit general, but developing nations tend to have a median population age of 22 to 27 years, while developed nations have around 45-49 years. Call it the hubris of youth, but I’m not too surprised by the findings. I’m glad they are optimistic. Being young and without hope, or without the ability to earn a living, is what causes revolutions. Of course, people in developing nations also tend to be the ones who accept hard currencies more than fiat!
Above….. bbc news 2th november.
Morning Mr. Irish,
At first blush I would say that it appears that the folks in the poorer countries have come up compared to where they were 5 – 10 years ago whereas in the richer countries conditions have deteriorated somewhat. People in the U.S., as an example, are not really making anymore money than they were in the past, their debt load (truly their own fault) has increased; and, anyone with a modicum of intelligence is very worried as is shown in the confidence figures of late.
Appreciate you input!
Big Al
Is China’s President Hu Jintao about to fish out his chequebook at the G20 summit in Cannes and, with a flourish, wipe away Europe’s woes?
From all the breathless speculation you’d think that was on the cards. The talk is all about how “China can save the world”, or ride in and “rescue the Eurozone”.
Of all the G20 leaders President Hu may seem to be in an enviable position, China’s economy growing at about 9% a year, holding a war-chest of $3.2 trillion (£2tn, 2.3tn Euros) in foreign exchange reserves.
But it’s worth considering that President Hu is not in such a powerful position. He’s not about to “save” Europe, in fact he’s probably as concerned as anyone else about the way Greece seems to be sinking deeper into the economic and political mire and the Eurozone may be heading for even more trouble.
Most of the hype about China’s ability to influence the situation is coming from people commentating from outside China. What is being said here is very different.
“China can neither take up the role as saviour to the Europeans, nor provide a ‘cure’ for the European malaise,” said the state-run Xinhua news agency at the weekend.
Drag on Europe?
To put things in perspective, for all China’s rise, its economy accounts for less than 10% of global GDP at present, while the developed nations of Europe and America make up well over 50%.
It is Europe – even in a time of crisis – that does much to power China’s rise, rather than the other way round. Europe, we all know, is China’s biggest export market. Last year it bought 280bn euros of Chinese goods.
Chinese exporters have been hit by the downturn
A new downturn in Europe would hit China hard. At the giant China import-export fair in Guangzhou this week almost everyone I spoke to said orders from Europe are falling and that’s hurting China’s exporters.
By contrast, some say, China is a drag on Europe. It sells far more to Europe than it imports from it, and that is not going to change overnight. Only Germany has serious trade with China, as it makes the machinery and motor vehicles Beijing is buying in large quantities.
China isn’t investing much in Europe either, less than 1bn euros last year. That was little more than 1% of foreign investment in Europe, which pumped five times as much into China.
While many outside China view its leaders as strong, masters of a rising power, many in China see them as cautious, consensual, hemmed in by problems at home. President Hu has just a year left before he’s due to step down, so he’s unlikely to take radical decisions right now.
China is trying to slow its own economy, to control inflation, to unwind the massive investment and credit boom it used to get through the last global crisis, to keep a lid on rising protests. What would help Europe is if Chinese consumers bought much more, but that will take time to happen.
In the meantime Beijing has talked at various points in the past year or so about stepping in to help Greece, Portugal and Italy. But it has not done much, understandably wary about losing if it invests rashly now in the middle of a crisis.
China has huge holdings of euros and Europe is important to China, so it will invest, but on a clear-headed, commercial basis. Just don’t expect China to save the world.
Your comments (3)
They may not want to save the world, but they do need to cover their own bases and Europe is, right now, first base!
Big Al
Thanks Irish. The following is not directed at you, of course…
The media dumbs down the point. Even if China writes a check…it’s to buy bonds which the EU/Greece would have to pay back, with interest, and collateral held aside just in case they don’t. It’s not like Uncle China is just giving money away. So in the end, it buys time (at a price), and solves nothing. China knows this. They may lend 10 or 20 billion, but they’re not going to lend what’s needed (€ 1trillion). It’s a big distraction.
Above bbc BEIJING correspondent DAMIAN GRAMMATICS 2th nov.
The Minister for Finance has said Ireland has to ensure it has no association with the situation in Greece and has more in common with northern European economies.
Speaking on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland, Michael Noonan said the Greek decision to hold a referendum on the bailout had been unexpected, but added the possibility of bringing the referendum forward to December from January may be hopeful news.
Mr Noonan also spoke about the €3.6bn accounting error in Ireland’s borrowings, which emerged yesterday.
The correction has reduced the national debt by over 2% but is unlikely to have any impact on next month’s Budget.
The National Treasury Management Agency said yesterday that it had raised the issue with the Department of Finance this time last year.
Mr Noonan said his focus was to correct any systemic errors in the Department.
Meanwhile, the Taoiseach has said Ireland cannot follow Greece into debt default as it would be disastrous for our recovery.
In an opinion piece in today’s Irish Times, Enda Kenny said default would mark Ireland out as a country that “won’t” rather than “can’t” pay our debts.
He argued this would kill off foreign direct investment and result in even higher borrowing costs for the State and Irish businesses.
Mr Kenny also said the Greek people face another ten years of austerity and troika surveillance.
The Taoiseach said the Government is working “every day” to undo the poor banking policies pursued by the previous administration.
TDs call for savings on unsecured Anglo debt
Opposition TDs have called on the Taoiseach to contact the European Central Bank and make it clear there needs to be substantial savings on unsecured debt owed by Anglo Irish Bank.
The Government will today pay €700m to unguaranteed bondholders at the former Anglo Irish Bank, now the Irish Bank Resolution Corporation.
However, IRBC chairman Alan Dukes said there would be serious implications for the Irish banking sector if it walked away from a binding commercial contract.
Mr Irish,
Sounds to me like your countrymen have their acts together. Good for them!
Big Al
Above RTE NEWS 2th nov.
Former finance director of Anglo Irish Bank William McAteer has been arrested.
Mr McAteer was arrested at 8am at his home in Rathgar in Dublin by detectives from the Garda Bureau of Fraud Investigation.
He is being detained at Irishtown Garda Station and can be questioned for up to 24 hours.
It is the second time he has been arrested in connection with the ongoing investigation into alleged financial irregularities at the bank.
A number of files have already been sent to the DPP in connection with the overall investigation.
Mr Irish and everyone else,
Now, I really think that Mr. Irish’s countrymen have their acts together.
Can anyone think of U.S. bankers who were arrested and questioned about their business (or perhaps better way to put it, “non-business practices) ?
Big Al
Above RTE NEWS 1st nov.
What really makes me mad are all these G20 meetings that the World leaders keep having it shows the total lack of respect for the taxpayers money and provides a focus for all that is bad in our society. Now we are going to have yet another expensive conference to discuss the Greek situation yet again. Two summers ago the pompous idiots met in Toronto and the taxpayer was on the hook for more than one billion dollars. Why can’t these leaders figure out that they could meet over the phone (teleconference) and save everyone these huge and mindless bills, this is just another example of their incompetence.
Morning Shawn,
I agree 100%. Given current conditions that simply makes sense.
Big Al
HELLO SHAWN……..I agree with you 100% IT just seems to me, that it gives these FOOL’S , an excuse to travel the world first class, stay in the best hotels , eat the best food, drink the best wines, pat each other on the back, & get waited on hand & foot, by the tax payers who are paying for all of this, & to add insult to injury they never solve any of the problems, that they have called the meetings for in the first place. IT MAKES ME SO FECKING MAD.
So Mr. Irish,
Sounds like you agree, to an extent, with the folks who are taking part in the “occupy movement”?
Let me say that in principal, I kind of do.
Big Al
Big Al,
How is this for a newspaper boy on the street corner: ” Here ye, here ye – read all about it! Fiscal insanity reigns! Leaders are clueless or should we say hapless.”!
Marc
Taken from the Disney movie, “Newsies” right?
Best,
Big Al
I do no see how the EU can be fixed. Piling debt on more debt does not produce good results.
the National Post is probably Canada`s best paper.
The EU is so lost re: demographics, immigration of angry muslims from the arab world ( the children the europeans could not bother having) but Canada should not talk. We have the same problems.
In fact, the per capita debt in Canada is as bad or worse than the Americans. And we do not have the corporations that the Americans have although our military is much smaller ( but compared to the US military, everyone is much smaller).
Scared.