What’s going To Be On The Minds Of Investors For Q4?
A quick market wrap for the start of Q4. I review the continued move up in US equity markets as well as the US Dollar. This weighed on the precious metals but did not have a major impact on stocks. The most important takeaway is what the narrative will be for the final quarter. I express my thoughts but am very interested to hear what all of you think. Please share your thoughts!
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If they have discovered a billion ounce plus of gold resource, Novo stock should be a lot higher.
Exactly right. The gold price doesn’t mean much to Novo right now.
Neither does technical analysis. it’s all drilling results. Hold on to your hats! Up to 6.98 today!
Right you are. That’s part of the fun of discovery plays.
Damn, I should have jumped on my due diligence when you and Bob Moriarty were talking about it at way under a dollar. $8.40 and counting…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVO.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p86735558259
Damn …….is right……..
Hold on to your hat , and hats off to BOBBY
Wonder if Billy will give him any credit……….lol
Also dumb-founded by these conventional markets going up each day.
I suppose the Swiss CB and the Japanese CB like owniing Apple, Google, Facebook, etc, etc, and why stop buying now when they can just keep printing and buying.
They have serious vested interests now in keeping those stocks going up.
My view is that the stock market – esp. large cap fang stocks and other exciting and fast growing tech companies ( like NVDA ) – is acting like a hedge against depreciating paper currency. If so, as Fed keeps on printing the money, the stock market can keep going higher.
Is This The Real Driver Of Gold’s Recent Weakness?
If you are a precious metals investor then you may be wondering why the price of gold and silver has been slammed in recent weeks. The answer is surprisingly simple…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-27/real-driver-golds-recent-weakness
China on vacation……..nice to be aware for the drop each year………put it on the calendar…for all predictions and bets . Just like Indian wedding time……Christmas , Tax selling season…..etc , etc, etc…..
Russians should pick up the slack ……………
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-02/russian-gold-reserves-hit-putin-era-high-buying-frenzy-accelerates
Mueller update …….
congress wants some info.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnKL3bfj-Mw
Just thought this was funny………I have saying the same thing for years……..and the guy is from Indiana…….
October 2nd, 2017 at 8:44 AM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Jim’s Mailbox.
Please read this note from long time CIGA Hugh. Telling the truth has been a very long and hard road. People are waking up slowly…then it will be all of a sudden!
Bill
Bill,
I have been trading for 35. I thought I had seen everything, until what I have witnessed for the last 5 or 6 years. I have tried to do what is best for my family and my clients. I have always been truthful with my clients and tried to relay what is really going on in the world. Last weekend I travelled up to Indiana to attend my brother’s wedding. During the time I stayed with my sister, I used the chance to reinforce what is going on in the world. She has listened, but I think she thought that her older brother was nuts. This time it was different because her 28 year old son was in the room. It was hard for me to believe but that young man believes as we do. He reinforced everything that I was saying. I returned home late Sunday with the satisfaction of helping my sisters family. Mid-morning Monday I got a phone call from my sister telling me about her story at the bank that morning. She had tried to withdraw her money from the bank that morning (around 10k). To her disbelief the bank told her they did not have the funds. They told her that they would be glad to order the money for her, for a charge, and have the funds in 1 to 2 weeks. She was horrified that the bank did not have the money and that they would charge her for the funds. She asked if one of the other branches would have the funds. Luckily one of the other branches had the money, of course she had to give them her driver’s license, they grilled her on where the funds were going, and several other questions. Needless to say my sister felt like a criminal and told me she would never keep the money in a bank again.
I tell you this story because I have had several over the years like this with clients and friends. The sad thing is I continue to believe as you and Jim, I listen, and continue to talk. September was another hard month for me as I lost 4 more clients. The story is the same, we believe in what we were doing but we cannot continue. We need to make a better return and the pm sector is not doing it for us. The markets continue to rise, and frankly, we are sick and tired of hearing the story, one of these days.
We continue to preach and speak the truth, but it does not matter, they are not listening. Has the world just gone numb and dumb!
It is hard for me to believe that I will see a wake-up call in the USA any time soon. This has gone on far longer than I thought possible. I think we are a very very small minnow in a very large ocean.
I know, be careful what I wish for.
I am losing clients, faith, and my income. I am 60 in December and am slowly losing what I have worked for to save and prepare!
Where do we go from here? I think it’s many months away, longer than any of us think. They will print until the end of time.
FYI: I am still holding my ground, along with the clients I have left.
I KNOW I BITCH A LOT, but this is what I see along with clients. Are we really making a difference?
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING. Peace and god bless.
Junior resources with Joe Mazumdar
The Nobel prize in physics this year was awarded to the American team that detected gravitation waves, predicted by Einstein in 1916, detected in 2016.
To indicate how difficult this was; the change in distance measured over 4 miles length was about 1/10 of the diameter of a proton nucleus. (Einstein, in fact, believed it would forever be too small to measure, but technology has advanced incredibly in a century!)
At some point, tax donkeys may decide that it’s no longer worth it to work so hard, and so they downsize, retire, sell the business, etc.–get out while the getting’s good. The average wage earner may reckon that those making the big bucks and paying the big taxes would never stop slaving away because their net income would drop–and who would voluntarily let their income decline?
As the dollar declines slightly this morning, it looks like the inverse correlation of PMs continues.
Gold and silver up just a tad.
Nigel Farage comments on Catalonia:
I jumped the gun last week, thinking the DCL might be in. It’s drifted back lower, to about 1% lower than that low. Today is a strong swing-low reversal off of strong support, offering another low-risk entry to try to catch this daily cycle low. I’m long, of course.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=4&dy=0&id=p65621226186&a=539093952
For gold miners, that is.
For those who know little about Catalonia: a short history lesson.
After the Great Depression in the 20th century, Catalonia was granted autonomy in 193 by statute.
Then along came Franco and the Spanish civil war. Catalonia was conquered and autonomy was abolished.
After years of protest, when the monarchy was adjusted and Spain was given a constitution, Catalonia was again given a statute of autonomy in 1978.
It took an extended period, however, for the Catalonians to establish a regional parliament and by the time it approved autonomy in 2005, the economy of Spain had gone into an extended depression and the central government was no longer prepared to let Catalonian taxes go and by 2008 the central government unilaterally rescinded the autonomy statute.
In 2009 the Catalonian government approved a provision for a referendum of the people concerning autonomy.
Attempts to hold any referendum have been repeatedly been thwarted by the Central Spanish government.
Now the Central government has even used force to try to stop the will of the people from being expressed.
CFS comment:
I am actually surprised that the people of Catalonia have non-violently proceeded o have their opinion expressed by a referendum.
(Compare this to the nearby Basque region of France which has used terrorism to express what is probably a minority view for independence.)
It seems to me Catalonia should copy the Declaration of Independence of the US and deliver it to the Central Spanish government, because the problems are exactly parallel.
Seabridge Gold Continues to Grow Iron Cap
2017-10-03 07:30 ET – News Release
Hole 70 returns 491 meters of 0.98 g/T gold and 0.60% copper
Including 105m of 1.14 g/T gold and 1.11% copper
TORONTO, Oct. 03, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Seabridge Gold (TSX:SEA) (NYSE:SA) announced today more outstanding results from the next three drill holes targeting the plunge projection of the Iron Cap Deposit at KSM. Long runs of higher grades continue to support revisions to the KSM’s mine plan which could substantially improve project economics. The KSM project, located in north western British Columbia, Canada is 100%-owned by Seabridge and hosts a cluster of four large porphyry gold-copper deposits including Iron Cap. See our news release of September 6, 2017 for the first five Iron Cap holes drilled this summer.
Genesis Metals drills 37.4 m of 2.94 g/t Au at Chevrier
2017-10-03 07:26 ET – News Release
Mr. Brian Groves reports
GENESIS DRILLING RETURNS 14.01 G/T AU OVER 4.07 M WITHIN 37.40 M OF 2.94 G/T AU; NEW AREA OF GOLD MINERALIZATION DISCOVERED BY TRENCHING
Genesis Metals Corp. has released the results from trenching activities and from the first nine holes of the phase 1 drilling program recently completed at the Chevrier gold project near Chibougamau, Que. The Company plans to complete a total of 50 holes in the two phases of the current drilling program.
I was just looking through the agenda for the next AGM of Genesis on Oct 17, 2017, and was a little surprised at the jump in compensation directors proposed:
CEO jumps from $79K (2016) to $166K
VP and CFO jumps $63K to $145K
Some of the other director compensations go down, one goes up.
This does not include the 2,700,000 stock optiond awarded 7/27/2016 with a 5 year expiration.
Wonder were the money goes………..
Globe says Central Fund agrees to Sprott takeover
2017-10-03 08:00 ET – In the News
Also In the News (C-CEF) Central Fund of Canada Ltd (2)
The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that Sprott’s two-year pursuit of rival Central Fund of Canada neared an end Monday with a friendly deal to acquire the $4.3-billion bullion fund manager for $125-million.
Repeat……..One year later and the same slick trick……..Bankers in front of congress..LOL
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-03/watch-live-wells-fargo-ceo-apologize-again-congress-massive-fraud
Until Sessions starts putting the guys/banksters in jail, …..they will be back next year, too.
The reason the market goes up ever day is that the Fed has EXPRESSLY stated they will come to the rescue if the markets falter. They have also expressly stated that one of the purposes of QE was to generate the “wealth effect.” The Fed alone has spent about 3.5 trillion to get the markets going and they are not about to just piss that away.
This is basically what is referred to as a moral hazard. People know there is zero risk in the stock market, so why not pile in early? Actually, the only risk is dollar risk and who knows when that will ever come to pass. The Fed has backstopped the stock market and real estate market, and lo and behold liquidity has flowed directly into those assets and out of things like commodities. Who would have guessed???
GDXJ found support precisely where it should have yesterday and today’s 8 to 1 leverage vs GLD is bullish.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=22&id=p75102210825&a=545692043
(At the moment, GDXJ is up 1.7% while GLD is up .22%)
We’re riiiiiiich!!!!
Things could hardly look better, spanky (even if we get one of your dreaded black candles tomorrow)! lol
If that support fails then spanky is correct, IMHO.
Correct about IPT going to .249 or correct to be so bearish the sector?
Bearish the whole sector. Tax loss selling will take GDXJ down much lower if the support doesn’t hold. Lots of tax loss selling for IPT too.
Thanks for clarifying. For now, the miners are not telling us that anything is wrong and by the time tax loss selling is on investors’ minds, the sector could easily be much higher. Either way, spanky is prematurely panicky and I will be doing no tax-loss selling at all.
GDX is acting just fine as well…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p70853675036&a=546967502
GDX won’t do anything until $CDNX tags the 100 WMA. Whether that happens this month or 6 months from now is anyone’s guess. Again, I’ll state my belief that the silver miners in particular are going to continue to drift lower into the spring. Maybe they make an absolute low on a spike down soon, but they aren’t going anywhere from there until April-March ’18.
And I’ll restate my year-old belief that the second half of ’17 will be good and ’18 will be better than great.
I can’t recall you ever being bullish at a low — an important one or not. So, if IPT hits your .249, you’ll then say it’s going to .11 or lower.
The sector might not take off soon but it’s not going to fall apart either. The coming gains will be so large, who cares what it does in the short term?
I think the average retail guy would rather get a consistent few percent per year than a few hundred percent every few years because he doesn’t know anything and, therefore, has no convictions/confidence.
It’s pretty laughable that you can say you don’t think the sector will fall apart now. Many silver miners are down 50% or more from their peaks. They won’t be seeing their 2016 highs until 2019, at the earliest.
What’s laughable is that you’re so surprised by the pullback and don’t see why the technical picture is not bearish.
When IPT was down by just half (.64), I had just 50,000 shares left. Now I have way more than ten times that so I am glad it dropped into a level that has shocked many.
A big bull market is just beginning (despite being 18 months in). Once it is well recognized and well underway, you won’t see such massive pullbacks but they will still be significant.
I was convinced there’d be a huge mean-reversion all through 2015 and shared the fact that I was buying weakness all year while Birdman, aka Daffy Duck, attacked and made fun the whole time. He had a lot of company as many were calling for much lower lows and a bear that would last 20 years. I didn’t freak out as my whole portfolio went lower and lower all year, I happily bought more. That was the final year of a terrible 4 year bear market and from Jan 16 to Jan 17, my portfolio went up more than 7-fold. The current setup isn’t nearly as uncertain yet you can’t see the difference.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=2&mn=11&dy=22&id=p64039234063&a=477326034
Rickards comments on DPRK war are worrisome:
IPT.V will tag its lower monthly BB (at .249 currently) within the next few months. It will be trapped between there and the lower border of the giant monthly Ichimoku cloud until March ’18. At best it’s dead money (although if you buy the absolute bottom, you could maybe squeeze off a 30% rally with perfect timing).
What we’ve seen for the last 18 months is a technical picture getting itself in order. The outlook is only bullish (big picture).
XAU:GLD found support near the 200 week MA for about a year as the massive 2016 gains were digested but the 89 week MA has been acting as support for the last six weeks. The picture keeps improving in too many ways to list while most keep wringing their hands – which is as it should be.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89013675825&a=544104175
If gold does work its way down to the 50 week MA at 1244, I still expect the miners and silver to continue to show relative strength. (Since that MA is still going roughly horizontally, the odds of a retest are higher.)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p18394813681&a=542993017
Vegas shooters…..on 4th floor…….new info
https://www.sgtreport.com/
Have to admit that I am completely dumb-founded by Novo’s continued climb despite the drop in the price of gold.