Doc and Cory: Gold vs. Silver and and recap of Oil
Doc joins me for the market wrap. We look at the gold and silver charts to compare some technical factors and assess what the future hold. We also quickly recap the recent moves in crude oil and where we think this downtrend will stop.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Re-posting this article from Sean again….. Still quite relevant
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Gold Pulls Back — Grow Some Cajones!
Posted by Sean Brodrick – Wednesday, March 8, 2017 at 5:41 PM
“There must be an amnesia ray. Because every danged year, precious metals investors lose their minds — or at least their memories — about this time.”
“Sure, last year was a little different in the miners. But we were coming out of a 4 1/2-year bear market in gold. Of course things are going to be a bit screwy.”
“And as the old saying goes: History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. Right now, the market is dropping a beat set to the squealing of panicked investors in precious metals.”
“Never mind that gold does this every year. And gold miners do it nearly every year.”
“Last year was weird. Gold miners didn’t slump along with the metal in March. They only paused for a 1-week, sharp correction. Then they blazed their own path higher into May. That’s when the big correction came. Then gold miners resumed their sprint until July.”
“Does anyone remember any of this? The market sure acts like it doesn’t. Buddy, that is one heck of a super-villain amnesia ray at work. We’ll be receiving the super-villain’s demands any minute. Let’s hope we remember to pay the ransom.”
“The point is, we are closer to a bottom than the top. And I would prefer to buy things on sale, thank you very much, rather than pay top dollar.”
“So to all the nervous Nellies out there — man up! Grow some cajones. Precious metals are not for whiny cry-babies. There’s a reason for that: the rewards can be downright extraordinary.”
“And now, now you get to buy the best miners, explorers and developers on sale. If we’re really lucky, the sales prices will get marked down even more.”
“The best is yet to come. Be ready for it.”
http://king1eye.blogspot.com/2017/03/gold-pulls-back-grow-some-cajones.html
Well said Sean….. Well said…..
Shad :
I don’t buy it.
Call me a nervous Nellie,I can handle it.
Cajones, no problem.
Keep looking at the left side of the chart. It’s done this before therefore it must do it again.WRONG.
Market tops are formed by greed, and market bottoms are formed by fear.
The excuse always is that if things keep going down you get to buy at lower prices.
At some point you have to consider the time value of your money invested.
Good points JohnK. The markets could definitely go lower no doubt, but it would be making those quality miners a more and more attractive value was the point.
* The second to last line in Sean’s piece was:
“And now, now you get to buy the best miners, explorers and developers on sale. If we’re really lucky, the sales prices will get marked down even more.”
If there is a really bad correction in the miners, then I’ll be buying (just like I did in late 2014, 2015, and 2016, and during many March corrections and Summer Doldrum periods.
One of the strongest concepts I am aware of is “dollar cost averaging” where you buy if its up, down, or flat to keep making regular contributions. However, it is very challenging to do that in Jr Miners due to the volatility. As a result, I dollar cost average down during corrections, and trim some back in really overbought rallies. It’s worked well during bear markets and bull markets, and the time value of my money invested trounced the returns I would have made putting it in a mutual fund or blue chip stock. For clarity, my comments reflect my trading account. I do have a 401K’s and IRAs and boring mutual funds that are climbing with the general markets, but for trading I prefer buying when assets are unloved, and selling when they are dear. Call me old-fashioned.
The point I was making with Sean’s article and with the PDAC Curse info before is that THIS HAS HAPPENED BEFORE over and over again in March. Almost every time fickle investors jumped ship with losses, instead of buying more and exiting on an upswing. Many of those same investors got sour on PMs and the miners because they sold and the lows, and then missed the next move up and got mad about that.
If they would have sold in the good times, and bought during the corrective moves, and sold in the next “good run” then they’d have fared much better and would be sour grapes. Investors are so predictable and so emotional though, that few ever buy during pullbacks
Think about buying Uranium miners back in Nov/Dec last year when it was $18…… So many resources investors wouldn’t touch them, and said they were cooked and Uranium was over. Then towards the end of the year spot pricing bounced and started moving up, then Kazakhstan announced they were cutting back production by 10%, then there were the Trump Tweets, and then a few Japanese reactor approvals. From late November to early January suddenly everyone was giddy about Uranium stocks, and investors that never looked at them before were just jumping into anything they could find and the whole sector shot up 50% – 150%. In mid January many investors and several newsletter writers were saying, “don’t jump ship this rally has legs, and it is too risky to sell positions!” I mentioned trimming my Uranium positions back as it was getting frothy, and now that those same new Uranium enthusiasts the held onto everything, or worse bought at the top, are sitting on losses and all they do is whine about the sector or they are nervous Nellies. That’s my cue to start buying again…. and I am in the Uranium miners.
Again, if the whole metals complex takes a huge dump, don’t get me wrong, it will be very painful because I hold a number of positions, but I’ll hold my nose and buy like I have every other time, and if those positions rally in a big way and everyone starts high-fiving each other, then I’ll start hitting sell….. zig when other zag…..
The action in 2016 marked a huge turn in the gold/silver miners. There is no reason to think that it was a bear market rally.
As for the PDAC curse, it is absent this year. The miners topped a month before PDAC and were already down about 20%. The “curse” refers to the tendency for PDAC to mark a high.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=22&id=p95619902665&a=511695251
Agreed about 2016, and I still feel we are in a new bull market unless Gold breaks down below $1045.40 and GDX and GDXJ break below their Jan 19th lows.
As for the PDAC curse it just came early this year, but things have accelerated the week before and week after it, so I’d say it’s in full effect. Personally, I don’t give a crap about the PDAC but the trend in metals, as mentioned was that Jan & Feb are seasonally 2 of the strongest month in the PM miners and have been for decades, and March is seasonally one of the weakest months. My point was to highlight that this seasonality “rhymes” with many many years gone by.
Personally I’ve been very active the last 2 weeks buying new mining stocks and adding to existing positions, and have deployed a good bit of dry powder into this weakness. Sentiment has really been getting ugly on the 3 main blogs I frequent, and in many of the articles and editorials on various sights.
I’ll admit I could be wrong, crazy, or making trades that will sting later, but I like averaged down into corrections personally. There are many stocks I liked at much higher prices, and now that they are down 50-70% they look much more attractive to me. Just my 2 cents.
Shad:
I know you trade around your core positions and I agree 100% with this strategy.
All I ever hear is buy,buy,buy. The market today is not your Dads market of yesterday.
Bob Pisani of CNBC cracked me up when he said “wouldn’t it be great if the public would come into the market and join the rally.” I thought to myself,wouldn’t it be great if the public had some some stock to sell into this rally.
Money managers have ego’s to protect,letter writers need subscibers.Check your cajones at the door,learn how to read a chart. And remember to give back to those less fortunate than yourself.
After closer examination of the BPGDM chart, I may be a bit premature in the buying. One thing that stands out to me is that after the spike down lows (that often form double bottoms) there will be a bit rally up, and pullback halfway down, then another rally, and then finally a bigger pullback. The pullback half way down is usually in the mid 20’s and we’re only in the low 30’s.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20600169876
Good thoughts JohnK. I agree that the marketplace is inundated in talking heads parroting the only advice they know which is to buy. Hopefully you aren’t putting me in their camp, as I’m all for selling and trimming and quite often disagree with buying more. As for reading charts, I’m no expert, but feel pretty comfortable with technical analysis and it has served me well many times. For example, I often buy miners when they hit 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement (like the last 2 weeks) as this often is a good spot for bounce.
Again, based on the BPGDM chart, I’d like to see it pull back into the mid 20’s and then I’ll likely add another tranche.
Cheers and good luck in your trading.
Ex, I think you’re missing the point about the PDAC curse. If PDAC doesn’t mark the end of a rally or kick-off a large decline, then there’s no curse.
The current decline has been just another cyclical inevitability. When PDAC does appear to be the catalyst for a decline, I think it is safe to say that it is because smart/big money sells into the new interest that it brings to the sector. That is bullishly not the case this year and PDAC is probably not causing nearly as much dumb money buying this year since few are brave enough after a 20% drop.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=22&id=p56981205593&a=511705411
Matthew – I understand the point you are making about the PDAC curse sometimes marking the top of an intermediate cycle and people selling into the the new interest in the sector, but there were many other years were the selling started before the actual PDAC.
The point, once again, is that SEASONALITY often links up with the PDAC, where the miners rally in Jan & Feb, and March sells off. That’s exactly what we’ve seen play out. The PDAC is the largest mining convention on the planet, but it is only a 3 day show. The seasonal trend, when Gwen Preston and Mickey Fulp looked at it went back decades, where it really is due to all the tax loss selling in Nov & Dec in the miners, and investors starting new positions to start the year that causes this. The PDAC curse just happens to mark the time of year where 2-3 months later those investors that just had a nice run, pull some profits. It’s as simple as that and the PDAC doesn’t need to mark the exact top.
I can remember watching Kitco interviews in the past where everyone was gloomy at the PDAC because the Seasonal pullback had started prior to the event.
The comments I made on Jan 31st elude to this seasonality, and I care not about whether it matches exactly with the weekend of the event. It trading the seasonal trend that is the point. The other point is that we’ve seen pullbacks in late Feb – March many many years before (2016 being the exception).
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> On January 31, 2017 at 11:31 am, @Excelsior:
“Yep. Seasonality isn’t perfect, and no 2 years are identical; but is very clear that for the last 2 decades that a good metals trade is to buy in late Dec – then trim some back in late Feb….then buy back those trimmings in March after the PDAC Curse.”
Ex, I simply disagree with conflating seasonality with the curse. If PDAC marked a low every year, it would be known as the PDAC blessing, don’t you think?
The PDAC didn’t mark the low this year. Traders likely started pulling profits ahead of the event, and the selling and smash down in mining share-prices has only accelerated since the event started and concluded.
Again, I care much more for getting the seasonal trend correct (which I did) rather than worrying if an event marked the exact top.
On a lighter note, yes, if the PDAC did mark the bottom, then it would be the “PDAC Blessing.” Ha!
There is no event that actually has the ability to have any substantial effect on prices….. which none do because the marketplace is global and too big for one event, to even make a dent. If they moved the PDAC to mid January, we’d never even discuss it really.
The whole point is that the PDAC falls in March, and while there is some investor re-positioning around it, the trend is buy in Tax Loss Selling at the end of the year, and sell in late Feb to early March to book profits. It’s been that way for decades….
Ex, the low for GDXJ happened on the 7th – right in the middle of PDAC. If that low holds, then PDAC did indeed mark the low this year. Even if the sector goes a percent or two lower I’d say it still marked the low since the conference began after a 20% decline. Either way, PDAC did not dash anyone’s hopes this year since it arrived after that had already happened.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=22&id=p56981205593&a=511705411
Actually this chart does a good job of showing 2001 – 2013 in the Gold miners, and highlights the Q1 Run in Jan & Feb and then the sell-off into March….. Then the Spring Rally & Summer Doldrums…..but it shows the expected Fall Rally but goes up much higher at year end, so the last few years sell-off in Nov & Dec may have been more of the anomaly (so I stand corrected about the end of year sell-off as that has only been the last few years….)
Seasonality Chart for Gold Miners in HUI – from Adam Hamilton:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton032213/Zeal032213A.gif
Here is a Seasonality Chart for Gold over 30 years:
Note the Jan/Feb spike and March selloff:
http://equityclock.com/pictures/GoldFuturesGCSeasonalChart_2CFE/image_thumb.png
Another 30 Year Gold Seasonality Chart:
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2013/08/GOLD-seasonal.png
In that 30 year Gold chart above, note the Jan/Feb rally, the March selloff, the “Sell in May and Go away”, the Summer Doldrums, and then Fall rally. The only thing different that we’ve seen the last few years has been a year end selloff versus a further rally into Nov / Dec.
For 2017, I’d expect things to roughly follow this seasonality chart, and that we will actually have not just a Fall Rally, but an end of the year SPIKE UP.
We’ll see how it goes, but I only post these 30 year charts to assist investors with a pattern. Obviously, this is a wonky year, and no 2 years are exactly alike. These are just the seasonal tendencies….. Take from it what you will and I hope it helps.
There’s no doubt about the seasonal tendencies even though there are exceptions.
As always, it is fun to parse things out Mathew. Your input on this site is second to none. That was a good GDXJ chart and is appreciated.
BTW – GDX just put in new lows yesterday, so that is what I was thinking about. Also, some of the shares I hold or have been buying did pull back further this week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=22&id=p97574876966
This is how I was feeling earlier this year and recently when discussing SEASONALITY:
Zoolander – Crazy Pills (Will Ferrell)
Thanks, Ex. Not everyone would be so positive about my attention to detail.
I’m glad you brought up GDX because it is a bullish development when GDXJ turns up ahead of GDX. Priced in GDX, GDXJ bottomed on 3/3 and is up more than 3% since…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p91183602186
Here’s a slight update to that GDX Chart:
Look at the Slow Stochastics and Commodity Channel Index. It looks like a good place for turn to me. We also have a “Doji” candle in place often marking a change in direction:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=22&id=p49420127256
The #PDACcurse
Eric Coffin of HRA Advisories | Mar. 22, 2012
From The March 2012 HRA Journal
“It’s that time of year again. Thirty five thousand people descended on Toronto to take part in the largest mining industry confab in the world. The PDAC has become famous for the broad range of attendees, the numerous parties and the gouging by local hotel operators. ”
“For resource stock investors, the PDAC famous for something more sinister; the “PDAC Curse”. So far this month is looking like this annual scourge is alive and well and making life miserable for resource stock traders yet again.”
Here’s another article highlighting the 2011 #PDACcurse:
“If you haven’t heard of the #PDAC curse, you’re in for a tale of woe and despair.”
“PDAC, for those of you unaware, stands for the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada. The annual PDAC Convention was attended by nearly 30,000 mining people earlier this week. Because corporate executives don’t like going to jail, most juniors with any sniff of positive news will release their results just before or during the convention. That frees them up to promote unfettered. BNN broadcasts live from the floor and conducts interviews with quotable executives and analysts. Its a pretty big deal…”
http://myemail.constantcontact.com/The-PDAC-Curse.html?soid=1101446787741&aid=Yfyff0Wvngo
Here was the Kitco coverage of the question last year, and we know in retrospect, the curse was lifted last year, but you can sense the hesitation going into this period last year…..
_______________________________________________________________________
Can The Market Survive the #PDACcurse?
Tuesday March 08, 2016 (Kitco News) –
“Although gold prices are up almost 20% since the start of the year, the market might not be able to escape the PDAC curse, a common correction seen after the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada conference, as analysts and market participants are expecting to see a pullback after the recent 13-month high.
“I think we have seen things move pretty hard in one direction so it makes sense to see a pullback,” said Brent Cook, author of the newsletter Exploration insights.
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-03-08/Can-The-Market-Survive-the-PDAC-Curse.html
* Is there a #PDAC Curse?
@TheNextBigRush – Aug 9, 2016 – Video
> On January 31, 2017 at 11:31 am, @Excelsior:
“Yep. Seasonality isn’t perfect, and no 2 years are identical; but is very clear that for the last 2 decades that a good metals trade is to buy in late Dec – then trim some back in late Feb….then buy back those trimmings in March after the PDAC Curse.”
** On February 9, 2017 at 12:04 pm,
from the ~coreshack conversation on #CEO.CA
@tommy – “And how will we know we’re in a bull market?”
@HRA-Coffin (Eric) – ” I think it’s a bull market – but nothing like some of the past ones we’ve seen. Will take a while for that to develop. ”
@JMNorthShore (Joe) – “We are seeing some financings of junior explorers being upsized considerably. Given that the gold price is still around US$1235 so definitely a lot of investor interest in the upside potential. ”
@Brent_Cook – “Agree, precious metals look good for the year. It is going to get really weird down here in the US”
@JKaiser – “PDAC curse only occasionally gets violated as in last year. Will be an interesting test this year. ”
@tommy – “No PDAC curse last year. A pleasant surprise around here! I am still a child of the bear market and can’t have enough cash…. ”
I had posted those last week, but now that the metals markets are actually pulling back as often happens in the month of March on a Seasonality basis….
* (I agree with Sean up above why is everyone so dang surprised = Amnesia Ray)
Regarding Seasonality:
January and February are 2 of the strongest performing months for the Precious Metals MINERS after Gwen Preston and Mickey Fulp looked at decades of data and both came to that conclusion….
Anyone Investors that have actually bought PM miners during tax loss selling and trimmed in late February have made a fortune the last 3 years in a row.
March is one of the worst performing months in PM Miners all year long (even more so than the summer doldrums) and the end of the year selloff in Nov-Dec in the miners.
This is the chance for investors to identify quality Mining stocks and start at least 1 tranche with 25-30% of the amount you may want to invest in a given company. You can always average down if they pull back even harder in the months to come, but if the miners, turn tail and start moving higher, then there will be no excuses for not at least having some small position started (even if it is not your full allocation, and probably shouldn’t be at this point anyway).
Just a thought to mull over….
I should add that not all mining stocks are created equal, and some are out of synch with the correction and still a bit over-valued, where others have sold off so hard, there is little downside risk left, compared to the upside opportunity.
What I’m saying is, it would help to utilize some technical analysis or at least look at a chart of the stock you are considering to see how it looks relative to the recent lows at the end of 2016, the July/August peak in the stock in mid 2016, and the LOW it likely put in back in January of 2016.
See how the current share price of this “stock/ETF” stacks up to now, and if it looks like it is putting in “higher lows” , then those may be telling you something about the larger trend…
If they are putting in lower lows each time….. may be a more downside to come and more perilous….
Good luck to everyone trading in these turbulent seasonal times for the resource stocks.
Epstein End of Day TA:
Metals TA:
https://youtu.be/uDITe-7sdKA?t=33
CFS – Thanks for the posts of the Technical Analysis videos from IRA.
I will feel better about PMs if some people got to jail and the Comex fails. All else is fabricated.
OFF topic:
It just occurred to me that Justice Antonin has “high blood pressure and heart problems”……
https://www.forbes.com/sites/barronlerner/2016/02/16/why-didnt-we-know-that-antonin-scalia-had-heart-problems/#6423bd635f3b
In light of wikileaks info dump, I wonder if Judge Scalia had a pace-maker?
Just asking…..
They should’ve done an autopsy on Scalia!
ditto
That is a good question on Scalia……..
is a u shaped recovery a bull market?
I’d say it is…. but it’s more of drawn out bottoming process but the overall larger trend is slightly moving up (in fits and starts).
Remember Gold & Silver and the miners closed higher for the 2016 results. It’s likely Gold/Silver/Miners will still close even slightly higher for 2017, but we need this negative sentiment actually to set up for the next move higher. January and February kicked off in the miners with a hell of a rally, so things are cooling off around the same time of year they normally due. Par for the course….
Ex, good observations. I’m looking to lower my cost basis in select quality companies in the coming weeks. No time to panic here.
*Don’t Panic!*- Scene from Airplane
Awesome, love that movie. 🙂 Still, it’s been a tough week.
Ha ha. I always say those quotes around the house when I have a rough week.
A cinematic classic….
Good call Excelsior.
Cheers!
A U /
\ /
V , shaped recovery.
It may end up being more of and “N” -shaped recovery
___N—-
that is a No ….no…….
No, well I guess the ships going down then ….. Everyone get into Crash Positions:
Airplane! – Crash Positions
Now you got the picture………. 🙁
😮
hay U
“V”…..victory at hand
Next week the markets could go nuts.
Aunt Bee could do a shock and awe rate hike.
Mmuchin says he will take extraordinary measures regarding debt ceiling.
Debt ceiling will hit 20T.
The U.K. could trigger article 50.
Junk bonds are getting dumped.
The VIX products are looking real good.
Big week next week, me thinks.
meanwhile in Obama’s ex old home town:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtOOLilgYjg
This is all a big game……..Bix Weir has a good commentary on the Fed, ……
Doc and Cory,
You fellas have made some nice calls lately!
Good stuff! Thanks
+ 2 – We are fortunate to have such great insights shared on the KER each day.
we are fortunate to have the sight………(site)
True Vision
I have learned through the years NOT to doubt the Doc.
I do believe all of his calls EXCEPT one have eventually worked out. While not perfect, I must admit he is the BEST. And humble. In this world there are truly very few who actually care about their fellow man. Doc is one of them. After all when we die, that is all that matters anyway. Your wealth, body…all to dust they return.
Doc thanks for your efforts.
Well said Dave.
Meanwhile in Europe….
https://www.rt.com/business/380012-western-europe-artificial-power-island/
Looks like rare earth and scandium and copper demand to me.
We are headed back up…….shortly…….wash and rinse …….just a game at this point
Oil is not going to hold 48. It has a great chance at holding 45 as I said earlier.
Nicola Mining, 3 Junior Miners in 1
by @EpsteinResearch on March 9, 2017
Nicola Mining Inc. (TSX-V: NIM) / (OTC: HUSIF) has three potentially company-making assets, two nearing steady-state cash flow. The third, Treasure Mountain, offers both a shovel ready, up to C$9 million profit opportunity (see below) plus, longer term, a possible company-making silver-lead-zinc mine on a past-producing mine site. Regarding the first two assets, there’s the valuable, (virtually impossible to replicate in BC) gold-silver Merritt Mill and processing facility centrally located near Merritt, BC, and an “Exploration & Material Purchase Agreement” with Teck Resources (NYSE: TECK) / (TSX: TCK) to monetize waste rock from Nicola’s 100% owned Thule Copper project (another potential company-maker)….”
https://ceo.ca/@epsteinresearch/nicola-mining-3-junior-miners-in-1
Nicola Mining (TSXV: NIM) Video Roadshow
Posted By Canadian Stock Trader on March 8, 2017 – SmallCapPower
http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aOR-2450447&symbol=OR®ion
Osisko Royalties news
Sprott goes hostile in bid for CEF.
Central Fund of Canada Limited
ACCESSWIRE / March 9, 2017
“Central Fund of Canada Limited (TSX: CEF.A (Cdn.$) and CEF.U (U.S.$) and NYSE MKT: (CEF), established in 1961, announced today that it has received an application filed in the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta, by 1891868 Alberta Ltd., for an order approving a proposed arrangement pursuant to section 193 of the Alberta Business Corporations Act involving the Corporation, its shareholders, and Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust, a newly formed trust managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, a wholly owned subsidiary of Sprott Inc. (TSX: SII). 1891868 Alberta Ltd., which purports to hold 1,586,000 Class A nonvoting shares of the Corporation, being 0.6% of the Class A shares, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sprott.”
https://www.accesswire.com/456957/Central-Fund-of-Canada-Limited
It’s not the first time they’ve gone hostile. Seems unusual and unnecessary. Hope they don’t try to take over the KE Report.
Nah,they won’t take over the KER report. Everyone underestimates the studio dog.
Russia picks up Gold buying:
March 2nd Silver started it’s latest precipitous down turn.Coincidentally this was also the day the Fed had their meeting. “Government in the Sunshine Notice” Now that’s a good one.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20170302exp.htm
It makes me feel all sunny….
GNX (commodities index) daily:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=22&id=p72372812973&a=462534878
Thanks Matthew. It will be interesting to see if that line of support holds for the CRB Index.
Excellent discussion!!
Friday……..getting some support at 1200 gold and 17 silver….the buyers are in the wings. jmho…….ya all have a great day.
Dang……BITCOIN……..1305……….
historically, tulip bulbs did reach a peak of 12 acres of ground for one (1) bulb.
the purple beanie babie…….was going for $1200 in it prime
it’s……correction
Matthew, Doc, Excelsior, et al, a couple of weeks ago when PPP and NSRPF were both@.69 I asked which would do better over the next 3 years. Now with MUX and USAS just a dime apart, I wonder which will do better in the next 3 years. What are your thoughts? I bought some more MUX yesterday@2.87
I say USAS will be the better performer. It is one-eighth the size of MUX; it is the better value; it has a fraction of the shares outstanding; it offers more leverage to the silver price.
With that said, I think MUX will do extremely well and is probably significantly safer.
Thanks, Matthew. I was looking at MUX and USAS yesterday and USAS had only 12k shares traded while MUX traded over 4 million, so it’s much more liquid. Maybe MUX should take over USAS.
Agreed Matthew on the out-performance from (USAS) but I respect Rob McEwen a great deal and believe (MUX) will do great. Amercias Silver is still waaayyy under-followed and undervalued, and will have much more torque on improving metals prices as it relates to their margins and revenues. They are also not being properly valued for San Rafael coming on line this year and how that will improve their economics.
________________________________________________________________________
“We are very excited for our investors as the San Rafael Project is developed and transitions into
production this year. The transition will prove to be a significant catalyst for our share price as it will drive
our consolidated costs lower to silver‐industry, first quartile, cash costs and all‐in sustaining costs, and
create considerable free cash flow. This is an accomplishment which neither of the predecessor
companies ever envisioned,” said Darren Blasutti, President and CEO of Americas Silver Corporation.
“Though 2016 silver and silver equivalent production was slightly below guidance, the Company was able
to maintain its pattern of cost control and benefitted from higher by‐product metal prices.”
http://www.americassilvercorp.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=776928
more pain next week for silver miners.
I expect HL to tag its 100 WMA at some point in the next couple of months, if not sooner. It will likely go sub $4 at some point, hopefully briefly.
Maybe we get a right shoulder built out on the daily $silver chart now. Left shoulder and head in place.
Based on some seasonality charts gold rallies from about just before mid March. I jumped in with a good size position in GDX. Maybe we can rally to 1225 or 1238 and then see what happens. Will it weaken again quickly or rally higher. My very big buyback of AT&T yesterday is doing well.
While its possible the silver miners reverse next week and consolidate around their 20 WMAs, I think at this point they are all more or less going to head for their 100 WMAs. It’s payback time for their outperformance over the last 2 years.
slv:gld looks weekly looks likely to repeat a Nov 2015-January 2016 type move. Looks terrible for silver.
Greg Hunter
I posted this chart the other day and said that time is running out for the dollar. We have a perfect setup for the Fed announcement next week:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=11&id=p08883267509&a=511365632
As luck would have it, the announcement falls precisely on a Fibonacci time zone (March 15).
Matthew, from monthly perspective, all the miners have done is back test the declining 50 month MA, which has already had a death cross.
Meanwhile the Dow and S&P have continued on their upward trendlines that goes back at least to the early 1980s. The 200 Month MA has literally been rising for 40 years and was only tested once (in 2008). Barring 2000 and 2008, every single touch of the 50 month MA has been a buying opportunity.
I dunno. I think gold is still vulnerable to the 200 month MA, around $900. It may not crash to get their, but it could be stuck going sideways for a long long time.
Look at commodities and yen too. I think the monthly charts speak for themselves. These are clearly no longer secular bulls. If they were, they would have held their 200 month MAs IMO.
I used to say QE could never end and that the Fed could never raise rates. I was proven wrong on both accounts. Inflation, at least as measured in terms of commodities is non-existent and looks set to stay that way for a long long time.
Spanky, gold’s secular uptrend is clearly intact. The monthly chart still shows higher highs and higher lows.
Remember that the monthly chart will take much longer than the weekly chart to get itself in order. You will miss an awful lot of the upside if you focus only on it.
The 200 month MA actually pointed down for many years in the late 1990s/early 2000s.
Like the dollar, the yen is down 80% versus gold since 2000 – wait, the dollar is down 81%. The yen is no safe haven!
Oil may head to a new trading range of 43 to 48. It could take many weeks to get past 50.
Bob Moriarty says: “Everybody back in the pool.”
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty031017.html
Makes sense to me.
Yes,Excelsior
SKI says buy signal AND sell signal 🙁 (Jordan thinks it might mean a bounce,then lower,Jeff K says it could mean that but gold stocks could also just go straight down)
https://thedailygold.com/an-update-from-skigoldstocks-system-with-dr-jeffrey-kern/
Jump back in and drink the grape flavoured Kool aid.
Good catch Pete.
What goes unnoticed are the Accumulate/distribute algo’s.
Everybody takes notice when there is a big dump at the comex.
Using the A/D Algo’s, large orders can be masked using time based perameters.
I have always felt moves such as these are the handiwork of a very powerful mainframe running a very sophisticated algo. IMHO
Thanks,JohnK
Makes sense to jump in now. We could get a powerful short covering rally to 1250 and then I can jump off the train.
Comey, was at HSBC which was part of drug laundering money…..now part of the, Deep State, which will not prosecute those involved in Pizzagate nor Wiregate………..Sgtreport.
Comey , Clapper, Carter……..three peas in a pod
Oil beginning another major drop. USO should head below 10.
PDAC Curse:
https://ceo.ca/index?458f0a3631ee