How long will the gold bull market last?
The founder and editor of The Daily Gold website, Jordan Roy-Byrne shares his thoughts on the gold market. We first address the fact that this recent gold move has surprised him but most of this is due to changes in the election narrative. We look further out to next year when we have the election and December Fed meeting behind us and assess just how long this bull market could go for.
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No James, gold just completed a cyclical bear market within a much larger secular bull market.
For those who can view a monthly chart, the secular bull market is clearly intact and looks great:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=16&mn=3&dy=13&id=p19644363408&a=444945811
You could say the gold bull market began over a century ago with the creation of the Federal Reserve.
Yes, that’s clear on a 100 year chart.
Matthew… CORRECT
Agreed Matthew. The Secular bull started in 2000-2001 and will continue on for some time. The Cyclical Bear was 2011- Dec 2015 (Jan 19th, 2016 for the miners). Now we are simply resuming a new Cyclical Gold Bull inside of the larger Secular Gold Bull.
What the FED giveth the FED will take away.
No change in interest rates for November, more propaganda they a re coming
GOLD SINKS ON THE NEWS
SAME OLE SAME OLE
and ps I didn’t even bother to listen to the interview, after the title I knew where it was going.
And this guy has been all over the map and two steps behind for years now
same ole same ole…
no rate increase in November, but its coming.
don’t know when, don’t know how much, but it coming.
WE can raise rates, we are ready to raise rates, we might raise rates, but we wont, but we could,
release the hounds now to go all over the world on our dime and keep blathering about how a rate hike in December is coming and how the economy is improving.
5 weeks of this propaganda ought to knock gold back down $100 bucks.
here we go loop de loo, here we go loop de la…
GOLD D-
SILVER F
I dont know JTL, Ive followed this guy for awhile, he doesnt seem like a “pumper” to me.
Cory – Thanks for having Jordan Roy-Byrne on the KER today.
I regularly enjoy watching his video presentations posted on Palisade Radio, read the articles at his site (and have for years), and check out his occasional comments he posts on CEO.
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Here was a recent post:
Video: One Gold Relationship to Watch
10/31/2016 | Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA | Featured, Media, Video Update
https://thedailygold.com/video-one-gold-relationship-watch/
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Jordan calls it like he sees it (both bearish and bullish) and he is not just a “pumper”. I respect that he is his own man and isn’t typically influenced by the hype. Jordan also has great analog charts showing other bear markets and bull markets that are quite helpful in digesting longer time spans. His technical analysis is very good overall, and if anyone has been following him for a while they’d know it.
He’s not a pumper.
He’s just been wrong a lot, both ways
Does not look good for Gold tomorrow. Don’t like the weakness of miners in contrast to a strong day for the metal.
A number of miners that were bullish earlier in the day have turned bearish towards the later part of the day, so investors took the opportunity to sell some into the strength. Makes sense to lighten the load a bit into the uncertainty.
Matthew just because you keep saying something doesn’t make it so.
This has been a secular bear market for 5 years, undisputed
Except for those who can’t admit it
Many minig stocks were destroyed 90% that is a bear and a brutal one at that
You can keep saying it but it’s just not so
Until we have confirmation we are in a BEAR MARKET
Most people know this except the PUMPERS, gold bugs, and the ones who refuse to admit they were wrong
That’s right, James, it’s the facts that make it so. You are obviously not interested in learning if, after all your years in the sector, you still think that 5 years = a secular trend — “undisputed” even, lol…
“An adjective used to describe a long-term time frame, usually at least 10 years…
A secular bull market will have bear market periods within it, but it will not reverse the overlying trend of upward asset values. For example, most economists agree that U.S. equities were in a secular bull market from about 1980 to 2000, even though the stock market crash of 1987 occurred within the same time period.”
— Investopedia
There are some interesting comments in the article below about how the Secular and Cyclical Bull/Bear markets can also be measured in Distance versus Time, which is an interesting twist on cycles…….
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Mining For Gold; Cyclical vs. Secular Market Cycles
By VW Staff on October 8, 2016
I’m not even goi g to post for a while
Not productive
Debating the same old crap
Great.
For anyone who can count to 5 and has the mentality greater than a handball…
The most optimistic projections for gold I’ve heard is $1900 in 4 years time.
And these projections are more outlier.
Even if these projections come to pass that would mean it will have taken almost 10 years to get back to the old high.
10 years of flat.
And that’s even if it happens.
Gold and silver were the worst investment possible and unless some radical radical change happens very very soon they will continue to be so.
If people want to dispute that point I can’t help them.
Oh…. 🙁
Here we go again
I remember whengold was in a bull market guys like Jim Rogers started talking about the “commodity super cycle” and how commodity super cycles last on average 17 years, I guess he got that from investopdia too.
Of course commodities crashed long before that and he looked very foolish.
People would be much better off if they just keep it a lot simpler.
We were in a bull for 11 years
We are in a bear for 5 years
Unless people can’t see the forest for the trees
Friends, there is obviously no point in trying to reason with JTL, so lets don’t go there. An old saying goes that you cant reason a person out of a position that they did not reason themselves into!
As for gold and silver being a bad investment—-I bought my first gold coins in 2004 for $425. Today that coin is worth about $1,250 and I bought many in the following years and much silver also. I paid $7.50 for my first ounces of silver.
+1
Look at the bright side, if you guys keep “reasoning” with jtl you will chase him away.
Isnt that the point? To chase away anyone that thinks differently than yourselves?
That’s not the point at all, B. James just doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Should I respect someone who insists that up is down? Criminal nutters on the left might think so but they also believe that “feelings” matter more than facts. Sorry, they don’t.
OFF TOPIC…First this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ov5kvWSz5LM&feature=youtu.be
IrishT – see the other blog on Chris Temple’s editorial today. Dick Tracy has us pub-crawling to meet the Queen for some kneeling and reeling. Are you up for a royal incident?
Hello EX. Yes I read it, I think DT is trying to get me into trouble by putting ideas into my head , but I am very disappointed with him for wanting to drop you in the shit as well….haha.
Btw…I never want to meet that woman, as my actions would make headline news around the world.
Agreed – it would be a media spectacle!
How about just a nice pub-crawl then? At least until we find women that are worthy of kneeling before, or until our beer goggles make us think so…. 😉
Priced in gold, the 30 year U.S. T-Bond is sitting right on the neckline of a big head and shoulders top. When the pattern is activated, gold will do well and the miners will go apeshit. It doesn’t matter to me if it takes two more weeks or two more months.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USB%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=13&id=p01561216199&a=464882778
John, it is YOU who cannot be reasoned with, mostly because you don’t think for yourself.
Using your own experience wi gold I will show you how foolish your position is..
I’m 2004, the year you bought your first coin at $425 if you had take the same $425 and bought Apple stock, which at the time was selling for $22 a share you could have bought 19 shares.
In February of 2005 Apple split 2-1 giving you 38 shares.
In June of 2914 Apple split 7-1 giving you 266 shares.
Today Apple is trading at $111 per share.
266 x 111 = $29526
So if you bought gold in 2004 you have $1250 bucks.
If you bought Apple you have $29000 bucks
AND THAT DOESNT EVEN INCLUDE THE DIVIDENDS!!!
You also don’t mention how much you paid for any silver you purchased after your first ounces.
I will bet you dollars for donuts your under water with most of those.
So before you talk about reason why don’t you start reasoning for yourself and thinking for yourself
-1 😐
Sounds like logical reasoning to me JTL.
Mathew, further up you were saying JTL doesnt know what he is talking about.
uuummmmm, I think he gives just one of many examples.
I think gold has a roll to play in a portfolio, but geez, wouldnt it “blow” to have had 100% gold instead of 5-10% in JTLs example?
Gold has its roll, but trying to make it out to be more than what it is, is kinda silly.
What is truly “silly” is chasing away people with a broader perspective.
People that see a bigger picture.
Sure own some phyzz, but the time comes when most people have enough.
Play PM shares, they can be profitable due to volatility etc
But there sure has been opportunities that paid a great deal more than PMs over the years.
Of course it sounds logical to you, B. What you and James obviously don’t understand is that it is moronic to compare gold to Apple shares in 2004. Gold competes with sovereign debt/currencies. It is money and the safest asset on earth. You two seem to think that big gains and low risk go hand in hand — if you’re thinking at all.
I am not chasing anyone away. If James doesn’t want a reply, he shouldn’t comment in the first place.
What is truly silly can be found in your mirror.
Lol, etc.
Well, guess you plain dont get it Mathew.
Interesting to see just how quick you turn to insults.
You always were quick to insult.
I do understand, tuff to have people disagree sometimes.
I get it perfectly and your cluelessness is insulting. Maybe you should learn how to read JTL’s comments accurately. The guy whines for attention like a two year old, and, like you, he’s completely unreasonable.
Furthermore, you started the insults with your usual “it’s kinda silly” bullshit.
You’re quite a character, b.
more insults? what a surprise.
what was that saying? the first person to attack is the first person to run out of ideas?
hmmm lol
You’re ridiculous dude.
+2
Can you count that high?
-1 🙁
For any investors that would have taken a position in Pi in 2004 it would still be:
3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510582097494459230781640628620899862803482534211706798214808651328230664709384460955058223172535940812848111745028410270193852110555964462294895493038196442881097566593344612847564823378678316527120190914564856692346034861045432664821339360726024914127372458700660631558817488152092096282925409171536436789259036001133053054882046652138414695194151160943305727036575959195309218…..
JTL,
Please post your receipts here to this site showing that you bought EITHER gold, silver or Apple in 2004.
lol John.
Should people that bought houses,apartment buildings,farmland etc post papers?
It was an example, nothing more.
It’s hardly an impressive insight to find asset A that outperformed asset B over some time period, and say ‘See, asset B is not the only worthwhile investment’.
I love when people point to some stock and say look if you bought this you would have made way more then using it to buy gold. How stocks are there in total? How likely are you to pick the big winner over time? How likely to pick a loser stock or even one that goes belly up? Gold is a currency and you get more of it when you feel the need to go to cash along with cash too of course.
Great points Murphy!
How about the weather?
first of all the title of this is very insulting.
lets be clear, gold has been in a SECULAR BEAR MARKET for 5 years.
the correct title should be when will we know if this short term bounce THIS YEAR is the end of the bear market and start of a new one.
there’s nothing to see here!