Outlook for the Industry
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1-2: We open the Show with Louise Yamada, Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors.
- Segment 3: CEO and President of First Majestic Silver, Keith Neumeyer, discusses his outlook for the silver industry and the company.
- Segment 4: Brien Lundin provides some insight for what to expect at next weeks New Orleans Investment Conference.
- Segment 5: Trent Mell, President and Head of Mining at PearTree Securities, chats about how his firm is helping to expand the investor base in junior companies.
- Segment 6: An update from President and CEO of Theralase, Roger White, on the time frame of regulatory approval.
- Segment 7: Our weekly market wrap with Chris Temple of the National Investor and Richard Postma, AKA Doc.
- Segment 8: We wrap up the show discussing Canadian and American politics with Jeff Deist, President of the Misis Institute.
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Marty comments on TA, Bias, Artificial Intelligence, and cycles.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38340
BTW: I would love to see John Williams and Martin Armstrong discuss the inflation/deflation argument .
“they never revise their thought process”….bias of a goldbug…..good one….
We will contact John. Mr Armstrong does not seem to have any interest in being on our show.
He might get exposed ……and get some real comments directed his way.
Yes it was.
Thanks Al – I just wonder whether the big moves in the conventional markets on Thurs and Frid and would have altered her viewpoint.
Hi Bob,
You are talking about one of the disadvantages of pre recording! We need to stop that.
Yes, quick Al – invent a time machine using a de lorean.
I wish that I owned a De Lorean!
Well you see what they did to MR DE LOREAN , x from general motors……..They gull winged him out of business……GULLABLE , thinking the govt is here to help.
Good point Bob UK, and funny on the De Lorean time machine.
The strength in the markets on Thur/Fri did surprise me, and the S&P close was right in the target I had as the top for the markets. Now, I’m really on the fence as I have heard countless arguments for both the bull and bear case in the general markets, but I am very curious to see how things are going to develop next week on the front side and back side of the FOMC meeting.
Great interview with Louise regardless of the pre-recording before Thur/Fri action.
Big Al – thanks for having Keith Neumeyer on to discuss his outlook on the silver industry, on First Majestic, and on the smart acquisition of Silvercrest.
I agree with him that some of the smaller single mine or even double mine Silver producers are in a bit of tight pinch financially right now, and this would hinder the takeover of these companies by a Major or Mid-tier until the prices improve and they can get their houses in order on the balance sheets. $18-$19 silver will solve many woes for these companies, and I am confident that in the medium-long term these concerns will be resolved. At that point we may see some interesting mergers when the larger companies scramble to scoop up some smaller ones.
It was also interesting that they were looking at the distressed smaller exploration companies for large land packages and future exploration projects, over the small producers with large debt at this time. People could still do quite well with companies that have a Pre-Feasibility or preferably a Feasibility Study in place, and compliant resource, and that may be a takeover target.
Good question. This market (conventional) reminds me of 2011. It took a dump in the summer then went back up in Oct then backed off in Nov then it took off.
Remember the Fed has you back……………..lol, …..I think it is going higher, just because it makes no sense…….and Fitts, has been calling a CRASH UPWARDS, and so far she has been correct. She was an insider and knows the morons at the govt. level of cover up……………….JMHO
exposure to $1.2 QUADTRILLION , this is the number on the Turd report, that cfs posted., which keeps coming up, and has not changed.
I think it is going higher
Could very well be the case. TPTB don’t want a repeat of 2008 in 2016. They want to make sure Shillary or Jebby get elected and a financial crisis could through a wrench in that.
The election certainly has something to do with the action of the FED, and the string pullers……………
Exactly which election are you referring to Moscow?
It certainly does make sense if you realize the “game”!
Off topic, but what the US media is not reporting.
IT’S ALL RIGGED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MARK
Are you talking about worms? I rigged a few last week and caught me a SUCKER who believed the “official” line that central bankers run the world.
Everything in life is rigged including all stocks and commodities as well as politics. Oil went down too with gold when it should have gone up. The opposite of what we expect usually happens. Everyone was expecting a major crash and I figured the majority would be wrong and the market has shot up. I loaded up more at 1867 which was the final line that the banks would support.
Paul L,
It seriously depends on how you define “rigged”
I would agree definitely with politics being rigged, but only if a person agrees that the media has the power to DRAMATICALLY sway public opinion.
Secondly, regarding commodities sure they are “rigged” if a person accepts the fact that the majority of the “rigging” results from almost naked shorting.
Regarding the stock markets, sure they are “rigged” if a person realizes the the implication of “free money”
good thoughts from Eric. Thanks CFS.
From Turd Ferguson:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7146/must-watch-video
CFS
If there is one thing that I learned from watching this video, it is HOW NOT TO make a video. Talk about mundane! It would have been much more interesting had he hired a voice over artist for 5 bucks at fiverr.com (maybe a video editor too). Very painful to watch and way over my head to be totally honest with you.
https://www.fiverr.com/categories/music-audio/voice-overs/#layout=auto&page=1
Bentail…………DO you own any part of this company?
Do you do voice overs?
FRANK
I wish I did. My guess is that the founders are doing quite well. I work in the field of healthcare and nothing more. No, I do not do voice overs. that said, I have been told several times that I do have the voice for it.
thanks for the followup…..appreciate……..and thanks for the “fiverr”….
Check out How to Shoot Video That Doesn’t Suck: Advice to Make Any Amateur Look Like a Pro by Steve Stockman.
WAYNE
That’s funny. I actually own this book – it’s quite good (and funny). A great read.
CFS………..GREAT TAPE………………THANKS………
Problem with the information, it will not be used by the DOJ, because NO ONE IS GOING TO JAIL, the DOJ just showed no one of HIGH standing is going to jail , SEE LOIS LERNER exonerated………
THE tape should be labeled………”SHEEPLE SKINNING BEGINNING”
Louise is the greatest.
I think she is very good. If, you look at her past record, she seems to be correct.
She has been on KWN…..many times…….
Interesting she was at CITI, and who needs a TA expert, if you are CITI, ……TBTF, gets all the info first hand at the FED.
if, you review the above post of CFS, by TURD……….THAT SAYS IT ALL…….
She definitely is, Bill.
I agree with Jeff Deist
I am not surprised!
My response referred to Louise being on King.
I agree a lot with Jeff.
Is Harry Dent right? thoughts……
I do not follow Mr. DEnt.
Dent has been calling for a major crash in his emails targeting a Dow of 3000 for months and the market has taken off in that time. He is just a broken clock. Here is his wack email from a few days ago to sign on more subscribers:
ECONOMY & MARKETS | October 19, 2015
Dear Subscriber,
Harry warns in his latest video that “we are about to see a historic drop in the Dow to 6,000… and when the dust settles… it’ll plummet to 3,300.”
Considering he has predicted nearly every major economic trend over the last 30 years… including the 1991 recession… Japan’s lost decade… the 2001 tech crash… the bull market and housing boom of the last decade… as well as the credit and housing bubble…
I urge you to pay attention to what he is warning now.
Read the facts for yourself here.
Sincerely,
Shannon Sands
Publisher, Dent Research
Considering he has predicted nearly every major economic trend over the last 30 years…
The problem is he has predicted 10 of the last 3 market crashes. 🙂
(Not saying he’s wrong this time around.)
10 Out of last 3 except the three times the crash did come 🙂 I remember he was busy predicting DOW 36,000 in 1999.
BIG AL
I used to believe many of the speculators I heard (since I totally suck at investing). Had I have put as much effort into studying investing as I have studying the world around me, I would be an extremely wealthy man (there is no doubt in my mind).
I used to embrace countless reports by “experts” who claimed the same thing as Dent. They too said that a collapse in the markets was just around the corner. It never came (this was years ago already). The funny thing is that for each claim by an “expert” that says the markets will SOON crash, there is a claim by another “expert” saying the exact opposite. I have come to believe that this is being done intentionally to create absolute confusion and uncertainty in the world (along with FEAR). This allows those who are in the global driver’s to by-pass human logic – it activates the amygdala which by-passes rational thought (even for short while). This continual bombardment on the amygdala causes people to think and act irrationally (they become stuck in reactionary mode rather than using common sense to steer their thinking).
My point is simple: yes, I believe that the markets will ultimately crash BY DESIGN in order to usher in the one world economy spoken of in scripture. And so, whether or not Dent is right makes little difference to me since the bible is clear that a one world economy will eventually be established.
Any person (including Dent) who is armed with a bible can “predict” the collapse and will eventually be right on the timing if they make the claim year after year! I can do it, you can do it, and Dent can do it. One of these days, one of our guesses (that is what they are) will be right. And I can guarantee you that IF and WHEN we get one of our thousands of our guesses correct, we are NOT going to brag about the thousands that we got WRONG, but will boastfully focus our attention on the ONE that “we” got right.
And that is why I refuse to get caught up in these silly predictions by “experts” (be they Dent or so-called whistleblowers like Snowden). I will deal with things IF and WHEN they happen and not prior to it. I believe that this is why Jesus told us to be not afraid – FEAR and CONFUSION by-pass rational thought. And without rational thought we become ships without anchors.
Good point Bent nail.
Technical analysis is useless in markets as rigged by government as gold and silver are
http://www.gata.org/node/15868
As for politics – there are people who donate to the politicians they want for the laws they want. The result is the rule of men (and women), not the rule of law. So lawlessness reigns. Those who expose the lawless, those who stand up to the circus: they are either corrupted, blackmailed, ignored, or assassinated.
The Clintons are part of the “minion class” for the trans-national elite. They can both be bribed and blackmailed as necessary. The payback is on CNN.
see the armstrong link i posted above, TA is highly dependent on Humans and as we know they are highly flawed.
the greatest downfall in forecasting is human reasoning, which is extremely difficult to remove, for we all have a tendency to prejudge as we are ingrained with various cultural biases.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38514
Well said Bobby…………………………j
I would agree with some of Bobby’ s comment, Frank.
Bobby will be glad to hear that………
JHPACE1
And who might “those who expose the lawless, those who stand up to the circus” actually be? Do you have any examples other than Kennedy?
Thank you.
Google “Truth Embargo”, or just watch the mainstream news when it comes to politics in America or abroad. To see the victims, that is. The ones who stand up? Mr. Royal Raymond Rife, Dr. Leonard Coldwell, Dr. Steven Greer, Mr. Stan Deyo; Mrs. Catherine Austin Fitts; some have been persecuted, some assassinated, some run out of the country, some marginalized. The lists are both long and short, and by our history, we can judge the outcomes.
I like FITTS……..has some great insight…..because was in the circle.
How about this site?
Reassuring to hear Fist Majestic’s CEO acting with commendable restraint.
Haven’t listened to what she has to say but…. It’s great to see Louise in on the show. Kudos to Big Al on this one.
Thanks also for bringing Keith in.
Wishing you all a pleasant WE.
LPG
agreed. Both Louise & Keith are top shelf guests.
I think the Liberal win in Canada is a pretty big deal.
Legalization alone is huge, heck the savings on court cost alone might pay for the deficit.
Actually overall it should be beneficial, tax, saved police hours etc, and the big one, an end to criminal records.
Withrawing troops is big too, it signifies Canada will no longer be a puppy of the American war machine. Australia has already withdrawn Ive read.
Justin also has the common sense not to buy that turkey f35 and he intends to end blind support of Israel.
Its a significant change in direction I think, and deficit or no, not bombing hospitals, schools and children is worth it.
Liberal receives no support in Western Canada. In my city, pretty much all PC. Liberal has bad image in Alberta due to Trudeau senior’s energy program and his famously middle finger gesture to Western Canadian voters. This generation of voters have to die out before Liberal wins Alberta. In my riding, PC got 65% of the vote. People predict that the conflict between west and east will start again like in the 80s. Let’s hope the Trudeau junior is not as damaging to the West like his father. The economy can no longer take it.
Harper put us on the ISIS map of countries to attack. I am sure there are better and much cheaper jets available from Britain, France or even Russia or Israel.
I wouldn’t worry ISIS attacks. However Harper’s foreign policy is something I don’t like. He totally damaged our peace maker middle man kind of role in the world affairs. His domestic policies are fine. There are very few good politicians. One I do like is Paul Martin but he did not last.
Off course our King Ralph
Sounds like another indoctrinated Politically Correct “let’s not offend” train of thought.
bb, I wonder how much The Canadian Government will be on the hook for cancelling The F35 contract however; it still won’t amount to the cost overruns of staying in which have been astronomical. DT
Good thought DT, I forgot about that.
The thing about that f35, from what Ive read or seen in vids, is it will be target practice for Russian and or Chinese fighters. They would get shot out of the sky so fast as to be completely useless.
There was a competition in India awhile back, the Indians used the Russian fighter they make for export.
The west used our most advanced aircraft, f series.
The Indians blew us away. 12-0
If your interested watch the vids of the su 27.
The f 35 is no comparison.
The F 35 is a blunderbuss compared to Migs of any spec. Sensible tacticians know that for a fact. Furthermore, Trudeau’ s first move is a super snub for both Harper and Obama.
A person can be proud of Canadians, even if they do not live there (I’m saying this is in the nicest way)
Of course I completely agree with you!
In the battle, the deciding factor may not be who has better planes. Russian fighters always have superior mechanical design and manufacturing. If we enters a one-on-one dog fight, US planes may not win against the best Russian aircraft. However Russian command system in a grand scale is lacking, at least before. So when China buys a Russian plane, they upgrade the electronics. The problem for US air force is the most aircrafts are still F-15, F-16, which are 70s technology. F 22 is a failure and F-35 is unreasonably expensive. If think they really need upgrade the equipment. Whether drones can replace fighters plans is an unproven. The problem for Canada is that the best we have is CF-18. I am not sure buying the expensive F-35 is the solution.
Dragon, expensive or cheap the f35 is a terrible combat aircraft.
It is built to do too many things, so does everything poorly.
I believe our best option would have been the “superhornet”, it can at least compete with the Russian jets.
If we wanted the best fighters we would have to buy from the Russians.
Maybe Canada should make their own.
Canada used to make our own but prime minister just gave to US. It is very unfortunate.
Yup, the Avro Arrow comes to mind, Canada has been a vassel state for awhile.
The whole Avro team went to the states I believe.
IT’S ALL RIGGED !!!!!!!!!
yep……..you got it……………..
Yup, all rigged. God is sovereign.
ditto
I think HH, POINTED THAT OUT MONTHS AGO.
BINGO ! ! ! ! !
Of course He is.
A little humor: “October is a particularly dangerous month to speculate in stocks. Followed by July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” – Mark Twain
ha,ha, good one………..silverdollar………….
Mark Twain has so many great quotes. Thanks Silverdollar.
OWL…great comments on Billy and Helly………hell yes they are bad news.
Mark, I have been say that for 10 to 15 yrs. ITS ALL RIGGED!!!! Stories are put out there that a certain belief exists about how something functions and this becomes a rote belief system. This belief system allows for people behind the scenes to them put their own desires forward and override what is believed. RIGGED!!
NAME ONE thing that is not RIGGED……….
nice comment btw………
Big Al got me worried about that whole QE thing again. But all I will say this time around is hoooperrr, hooooooperrrr. Lol
And on another note…about time you get a lady guest on the show!
I agree Jason.
He has had them before, but, far and few between………
Hey Al and Cory
What about approaching the Aden sisters for a Saturday segment?
Brian
GREEN ENERGY…..going no where…….if BIG OIL has anything to say about it.
best thing one can do is recycle your trash, and plastic for your local dump.
Actually we do, Moscow.
The MACD is now showing a buy signal on the s&p unless I am reading it wrong. The black line has crossed above the red line. It was a sell signal from around March to now.
You are correct even on the weekly chart:
http://schrts.co/oW7dKV
On the weekly chart, gold can drop another $30 without ruining the positive intermediate term outlook:
http://schrts.co/FjQBlr
Matthew
Rhetorical question:
If gold drops $30 = does an ounce weigh less?
Just kidding, of course, Matthew; good chart as always
Brian
According to Larry Berman gold likely has a bottom at 1,100 as at that price half the gold production would have to come offline but he is not seeing any big moves up either for a number of years and that gold stocks are good for a trade.
Gold is starting to look promising vs the 30 year T-bond:
http://schrts.co/CEfmDR
A chart to watch:
Gold priced in S&P 500
http://schrts.co/qjeDRE
The opportunity in the miners today is even greater than it was in the late 1990s.
XAU priced in SPX:
http://schrts.co/Uww3z9
A lot of us certainly feel that way, Matthew. The only question is “timeframe”
Agreed about the opportunity in miners being greater now than it has in a long time. However, only for the survivors….. 🙂
Thank you as usual Matthew..you have an audience.
Definitely!
Of course he does, Agatha!
I think Chris has some excellent observations about the rally in the conventional markets, which in my view are the result of a number of ‘co-incidents’ happening this week (ECB, PBOC, ‘fantastic’ results from GOOG, MSFT and AMZN simultaneously).
The money printing and legalise’ stealing continues with ZIRP in place, allowing global corporates to ‘buy back’ stock with freshly printed fiat currency, further empowering the elites of the world, while the servants are laid off by the hundreds of thousands.
It’s one thing though that the software giants make a lot of money. That should not surprise anybody given the still parabolic growth of anything internet and mobile software/services/apps related. Another thing, and a major litmus test for me will be Apple’s earnings. Apple is dependent on hardware sales, and I estimate that their numbers will disappoint; in fact, they may disappoint badly. Add to that the debt ceiling debate and another round of useless FED rhetoric, and we have the ingredients for a potentially volatile and disturbing effect on the conventional markets.
Anybody that wants to weigh in on these? What do you expect from Apple?
I, personally cannot comment on Apple as I leave that to Rick.
Regarding software giants, I happen to agree.
I think that this week is warning that major indeces can rally to reach previous highs with little or no momentum as central banks have blatantly entered the market. It’s not abnormal for markets to desire a rally after the top, mostly because sentiment is convinced that higher highs are in the cards.
A rush into junk this week:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d748e3b6-7912-11e5-a95a-27d368e1ddf7.html#axzz3pUDxvwXy
thanks FranSix
It really depends whether central banks continue to rally markets, or whether sentiment fails to carry.
I agree Fran Six
Enough of this bubble phase in the stock market nonsense. Only some of the big caps (perceived safest) are making new highs, everything else globally is in a downtrend.
If I see biotechs and small caps blasting off to new highs then we can start talking about it.
Thanks Dan
Mr. Big Al,
Heard that American banks are turning away large cash deposits from corporations. Also, starting next year money funds will be able to break the buck. How do you think things like this will impact little people like us?
Cannot answer without doing a bit of research.
Thank you, Mr. Big Al. Please let us know what you find.
I think people will be in for quite a shock when they start losing money in money funds.
But this is a logical step in the war of financial repression our rulers are waging on us.
The war will not cease until savers are destroyed.
BTW, Mr. Big Al, I did not mean you are one of the little people as I know you are a bigwig.
But I bet you have money in money funds.
Bigwig? In the eyes of my pooches!
What’s your forecast for the conventional markets over the next couple of years?
Deist is right about Hitlery. I think she is home free, scandalwise.
Any more attempts to go after her for her corruption or incompetence will just illicit hostility from the masses.
I think it is pretty clear Hitlery will be the next dictator…er…prez.
On the RepubloCon side there is nobody but Trump and the new world odor, banksters, etc. hate him. And his nomination will whip the liberals, minorities and women up in a frenzy to get out the vote against him.
I spent some time this weekend studying her past and I cannot support her. Too many unanswered issues and she seems to ? we too much of an actress.
I really did try to keep my emotions out of it, by the way.
actress or insider/criminal..like the rest o the group….
Possibly both, Agatha!
Off topic and old but good article by Rothbard. Anyone who thinks this is or was a free country should read it.
Forcing “Medication” Down Your Throat
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2015/10/murray-n-rothbard/forcing-medication-throat/
Thanks Eddie.
One of my favorite quotes outside of scripture is by Lewis Carroll. It is smack on in my humble opinion.
“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?”
Great bentnail
Jeff Deist take on Trudeau is out to lunch! His neo-libertarian B.S makes me wanna PUKE. Get better informed and less ideological zealots on your show please. Harper f-ed up Canada and its gonna take at least 10 years to repair his shiet policy cancer.
Cory Trudeau got %39.5, NDP got %19.7 and Hartler got 31.9% of the vote. Centre and left of centre parties have constantly made up 60%+ of the Canadian popular vote. That centre-left %60 has been held hostage by the %39.7 Con voters who have run roughshod over so many government institutions, police, citizen advocacy groups, scientists and business. One of the most popular proposals of both the NDP & Liberals has been electoral reform. Once that gets implemented this 19th century broken system will be gone and replaced with a form of proportional representation. They are looking at the French, New-Zealand and German systems to replace it. This will put the hard right Con party to reconsider its neo-con “starve-the-beaster” agenda. The Cons will actually have to go back to their original “progessive-conservative” roots. I can’t wait. The fatuous “light-fascism” that has become a staple of U.S politics and a throw back to the “Ugly American” syndrome is soon to come to a close in Canada. Remember we are the only central bank that is owned by the people in the Western world. I support the lawyer and citizens group who are taking the Government/Bank of Canada to court for anti-constitutional and illicit funnelling of interest payments to big banks http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-case-to-reinstate-the-bank-of-canada/5430132
I attended the hearing 2 weeks ago. Fascinating stuff!
+$C
His neo-libertarian B.S makes you wanna PUKE? You don’t don’t know much about Deist if you think he is uninformed or spewing “B.S.” You also need to think again if you are implying that he’s a neocon.
In addition, you don’t understand economics or history if you think that left-wing collectivism is the antidote for right-wing collectivism. Two wrongs don’t make a right.
The whole world is well on it’s way to hell PRECISELY because of the vast number of people who might call Deist an uninformed zealot.
I completely agree Matthew
Matthew,
OUCH! You are right…I should have taken out the PUKE as it was too mean spirited. Thanks for your “kind” rebuttal:)
I do get your points that Deist is not a complete amateur and is qualified to speak from a right wing perspective. My point is that they should have gotten a more qualified individual who truly understands Canadian politics. Deist and Corey are NOT those people! This is why what they said is mostly b.s. One more thing, I really believe conservatives in Canada will have to go back to their roots now as electoral reform takes hold. This is a not a bad thing in my books. If electoral reform does take place, I image the far-right Reform Party contingent will separate from the Progressive Conservative party side once again. This is also a good thing.
Confused, Deist is not only not an amateur, he is an expert when it comes to sound economic principles. He is definitely qualified to speak about bad policies wherever they reside.
Most nations are getting whipped into submission by the globalists’ “left” and “right” hooks but few understand what’s happening. The unprincipled, unthinking masses on the left AND the right will go nowhere until they reject what they’ve “learned.”
I don’t know much about Tom Clancy but he had a couple things right:
“Being a victim is more palatable than having to recognize the intrinsic contradictions of one’s own governing philosophy.”
“What the government is good at is collecting taxes, taking away your freedoms and killing people. It’s not good at much else.”
thanks for your opinions about Jeff. I happen to agree with you Matthew.
Sorry but I cannot agree with you.
Left socialist policies have not worked and will not work. I favor a free market capitalist economy. Trudeau obviously has taken the the party, once I supported, to the left. Harper is not ideal leader but he is the only conservative party. Wealth creation is far more effective than wealth distribution in any society. Canadian provinces have paid heavy prices for socialism. All provinces which have elected NDP have dropped to the bottom, which may also include Alberta. People were foolish enough to elect a party they never liked just to say no. Now it is pay back time. I am voting Wild Rose in Alberta, BTW. In federal election I will vote PC before Liberal comes back to policies led by Chretien and Paul Martin.
Off topic…but…never bring a machete to a car fight.
Thanks for the show guys !
Cheers.
Our pleasure Skeeta.
The gold community is far too bullish. It is overwhelmingly bullish and many are absolutely certain of seasonal bounce that has arrived early. The belief is that the dollar will decline very soon off this recent sharp rally and thus gold will catch a bid into November, December and possibly a huge rise into January. All the usual bullish talk is present again. The rationalizations for owning gold have again come to the forefront. It is protection against easy Central Bank policy…..it is garlic against an economic collapse and loss of confidence…..and it is the one thing that has certainty when all else looks shaky and unstable. But I think that the gold-bugs have gotten ahead of themselves one more time. We are still in a bear market on a technical basis and have not yet broken out on a weekly level. The positive vibes and bullish reasoning are about to meet face to face with reality one more time just as the handsome young stallion, all puffed full of hormones, hairspray and over-confidence, accepts that he will be taking the ugly girl home from the bar again. The dollar and gold will fall together. Sorry….but it can’t be any other way. Long bets will be punished. and gold will end 2015 lower in price than where it started on the final day at the end of 2014.
I kind of agree, but I do like the resiliency being shown.
It should all work itself out in time. No question about that.
——————–
I hope you are keeping well Al. Sounds like you have some challenges right now. Hang in there, man.
Keeping okay, Listener. Down 15 pounds so far and that is a good thing!
Even if you don’t like Gerald, I give him a lot of credit for this movement.
http://www.occupypeace.us/
Not sure if anyone else is picking up on this but I think that European equities and US equities are going to diverge for the next month. Usually they go pretty much in lockstep together but I feel that is about to change. Maybe I’m nuts but I am looking for US markets to fall back in November and Europe to stabilize or rise. Guess we will have to watch and see what next week brings.
those refugees will be buying the equities…
Good to read your thoughts Listener.
I agree, its still a little early for “to da moon” calls.
Is there still anyone out there making that call? I don’t see any. Even in KWN, the call is much more modest now. I think most bullish Sprott is making call only for $2,000, I wouldn’t classify that as to da moon.
Its an expression Dragon, like “soar””rocket””blast off” etc
Maybe I have problem with English. Those words seem to describe speed not magnitude. We can blast off to 1300 but you cannot say to da moon to 1300. They should not mean the same. Even for those words, I rarely hear any more.
Thanks bb. My doubts won’t prevent me from nibbling at the edges if anything looks promising of course. We can never know for certain which way this goes but what I see happening is a shift from the US to Europe, not a shift into assets like gold……not quite yet anyway.
The Fed wants to raise rates and as the time draws closer the markets response will be to reduce exposure to over-priced US stocks and shift to greener pastures. This will entail capital flows into Europe and Asian equities.
This is the trend I see forming up right now as a few things happen at once.
The dollar will decline now that it has hit (or nearly hit) its upper channel boundary that is clear on a weekly chart. The Euro meanwhile is set to start rising on a cyclic basis.
So if US stocks are going to decline as a result of a small rate hike (which effectively amounts to tightening in investor minds) and we can foresee that the Euro will rise and European markets will catch a tailwind due to Mr Draghi’s endorsement of more interventions then it seems obvious to me the obvious reaction will be a shift from the US to Europe.
This is fundamentally why I think US and European markets will diverge with one falling and the other in ascent. In such cases one might catch a double benefit of a rising currency and the potential appreciation in stock values (as opposed to suffering a double loss by staying with a market that gets soft even as the currency falls.
Anyway, this is my basic premise for the next month at least. We shall see.
I don’t buy equities really, especially not other than Canadian, but it occurs, those sanctions on Russia are gonna end, wouldn’t that make some European companies a bit more profitable?
The real big ones I can see, should be Russian and Chinese related to the railway building.
Course being a goldbug I will forego all that and get rich on gold. lol
You can get exposure to Europe through Canadian ETF’s then if you prefer to not own any stock outright. I would have to go dig up the tickers if you are curious but pretty sure Horizons offers a couple that follow the major indices there. Check the Beta-pro’s because as I recall there was a leveraged ETF.
Call me nuts bb…but I am looking at buying Volkswagen for starters.
Far from nuts, they not goin broke.
I reiterate that gold ain’t goin’ anywhere anytime soon. It will remain range-bound within year-to-date highs and lows for the short-term.
This is no trick or treat, folks. As per usual, I will put my mercenary money where my mouth is:
I stand ready and willing to entertain over/under bets on gold’s end-of-year spot price from any of the aforementioned gold bugs, perma-bulls, and yellow metal disciples. If you foresee a break-out of gold to the upside in the next couple of months, contact me for a friendly wager: $100 bottle of wine, loser buys, and we drink it together.
Any takers?
Ciao for now,
Mickey Fulp
Mercenary Geologist
I like Mickey Fulp. He is a character for sure, and someone I’d enjoy drinking a beer with or a $100 bottle of wine.
Mickey Fulp the best I have found, all his work is free too, he really is trying to help people navigate the resource sector.
IF, I was filthy rich and was pondering investing millions in a mine, I would hire Mickey Fulp to evaluate the project, management etc, he might even be worth hiring for a couple hundred k investment depending on where it and he was at the time.
That where he makes his money, other than investing his own coin of course.
So, all his writing, evaluations of project, resources, markets are free.
He is the real deal.
Oh, he also refuses to buy a new car, (like myself) they are depreciating assets. lol
Im a bit of a Mickey fan, could ya tell?
Mickey Fulp is one tough hombre…wouldn’t expect anything else from the Mercenary Geologist.
Mickey is okay.
Just happen to have a great red that he gave to Kathy and I.
I agree with him bb. Some here might be forgetting how much of a barrier that 1200 dollar line in the sand is too. Recall how many times gold passed just under and over it before finally breaking down. Well now that 1200 level is fierce resistance and I doubt it will give way easily. Even at the 1190 mark gold has tired and looks more inclined to put in a double top than break free and soar higher.
Agre for a while anyway on$1200′
I agree with both A Listener and BB about the PMs. We’re weeks and months away from a new established bull market—-it’ll begin gradually and then slowly pick up steam over time before we morph into the real thing.
I might have mentioned a time or two now, 2020-2025 is my timeframe.
I like your thinking of showing actual life 2016 fall, building steam gradually thru 2017 and we riding a bull from there.
And a monster it should be.
5-10% accumulation of physical should be all that’s required to keep a person in a living standard they are accustomed to. A few right stocks, well, who knows?
Should anyone accept Mickeys bet, you realise that win or lose you would have to sit with Mickey the length of time it takes to drink it.
One of the most knowledgeable people in the resource sector there is.
Privately sitting, I would assume a conversation might happen, maybe about resource companies. Im not sure, but that might be a bet I didn’t mind loseing.
Anyone seeing my tinin?
Hi Doc, good to hear from you. We seem to be on the same page. My bet is that US markets pull back beginning next week although I will hold fire until I am more sure. I am not in the camp that sees a renewal of the 6 year old bull market anytime soon. There is certainly no final parabolic rise or bubble phase in the cards I look at. What is in decline will remain in decline until it has resolved itself but there is just no telling what kind of a correction will ultimately unfold or how steeply it may fall. I do however suspect that we will need to see a decline during November if we are to get a Santa Claus rally into the year end.
I also think long bonds are going to keep falling.
I think the Santa Clause rally is a given – just a question of whether it is now already underway or whether we are going to get one last correction before it begins.
Perhaps Apple will light the way one way or another on Monday night?
Perhaps, Bob.
As I’ve noted for several days—expect a continuing move higher the last 2 weeks of October. It looks like we may have a little more momentum up for the conventionals especially the earlier part of this week. Then I think things could get a little dicey. A good part of November could be a risk—-I still feel the month to watch is going to be January to tell us whether this is just another correction in an ongoing bull or a correction to suck people in at the beginning of a bear market. Either way, don’t expect the kind of gains for the conventionals we’ve seen in the last 6 years. The global economy is on life support and will remain that way. You’ll be lucky to get 3% gains/year going forward in a very long and tired conventional bull market. As we’ve talked about for weeks, the risk/reward for a large number of reasons is no longer on the reward side for the conventional markets.
Sage advice Doc.
Everthing seems to be dependent on a handful of tech stocks now. Caterpillar and Walmart seem disaster signals for the wider economy yet everyone is piling into Amazon, Google and co.
Good point Bob!
You think even three percent Doc?
What do you think about my question regarding even three percent?
Also, the odds are very good for the dollar to drop back soon and for the PMs to get their final rally in this move before they head south into December.
Done Mick. I would enjoy sharing a Bootle of wine. Regardless of who buys. Time to catch up!
Robert Mchugh on drawing analogies between 2007-2008 and now:
Interesting article. Mchugh has been bearish for quite a while. There are many similarities to 2007-08 but there are also many similarities to the summer of 2011 when the conventional markets got hit but by the end of November they were back on their way up.
Bob Hoye spells it out about Canada’s newly elected New Age dreamer:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2015/10/this-week-in-money-22/
On the bright side, the socialists are going to get exactly what they deserve. Of course, they’re going to do their best to make sure the rest of us get what they deserve too.
So darn true, Matthew!
Krugman Hearts Solar and Wind, Attacks Fossil Fuels
http://contrakrugman.com/ep-4-krugman-hearts-solar-and-wind-attacks-fossil-fuels/
Matthew – read srsrocco site,, krugmans an insider paunce
I agree. The site I linked to above is dedicated to refuting his column week after week.
How many solar panels can you count on this shill’s roof?:
http://contrakrugman.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/12118734_171505273189758_3130900308730878706_n-e1444454481884.png
Some guy on KWN is calling for 230 trillion/ounce gold if the world blows up.
Does anyone even come cloud to taking him seriously?
Well if that guy is from Zimbabwe then he is low-balling because a 100 Trillion dollar note there is worth a mere 5 dollars! And that would make a ounce of gold worth….?????…..wait a second……Holy Crow……. Quadrillions or Bazillions. No idea how many because this pocket calculator I use doesn’t have enough digits but its a lot of zeros!
How to Turn 100 Trillion Dollars Into Five Bucks and Feel Good About It
*The Highest-Denominated Bill Ever Issued Gives Value to Worthless Zimbabwe Currency
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703730804576314953091790360
For some reason people don’t seem to understand these numbers, as J Sinclair saying 50k gold.
Your right of course Listener, but you would think people discussing currencies, economics daily would understand its not the gold getting valuable but the currency losing value.
Economics is 95% common sense, or, so I have heard.
The consequences of 50k gold might be considered, I guess.
Actually, the first consequence I can think of is Im not trading my gold for currency at that point. lol
Excuse me for being a bit thick, but last month there were a 1001 articles and TV commentary about whether the Fed was going to raise rates or not. This month it barely gets a mention – am I missing something here?
BOB UK
I do not think that you are missing anything. What we have seen (and are seeing) is nothing more than fear mongering by the media and/or so-called experts — it is being used to bypass the rational side of our brains (so the public does the realize that the forthcoming election is RIGGED: Clinton = New Age puppet; Trump = New Age puppet; Carson = New Age puppet; Sanders = New Age puppet — the horse track is brimming with ponies that are owned/controlled by the same collective of New Age handlers. Any distraction from this FACT is a much needed one (hence the fear mongering with regards to the FED – another New Age institution).
Canadians Vote For 4 More Years of Oligarchy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d725jqnPY5g
(Corbett was on the far left before he saw the light.)
Jim Grant talks up bond market manipulation. Mainstream negative real rates discussed as if it were an absurdity:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-10-23/listen-to-what-jim-grant-says-about-gold-prices
Negative nominal rates on treasury bills are a reality:
http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds
The market arrived at this all on its own, despite a relentless defence of the zero bound.
Negative rate is inflationary. It has to be maintained by printing money to suppress the interest.
In free market, the rate has to be positive to compensate default risk.
LIKE I SAID………….IT’S ALL RIGGED !!!!!!!!!!!
I am waiting for the silver’s breakout from the current range. It looks like the pressure from underneath is high. It seems increasingly harder to control. Winter season has been good for silver and gold for many many years except for last few. Demand should overcome the price control.
the U.S……?
In what context, Agatha!
FROM RUSSIA WITH ….Love……………
Diest calling Hilary a monster????
Al / Cory, was the interview with Louise Yamada done before the big move up in the conventional markets on Thursday?
Great interview – off to listen to the other interviews now.