Rick says, “The real irony in the markets today is that when the Conventional Markets correct, as they inevitable will, gold will more than hold its own.
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Starting this morning, gold went down significantly in price. Some are calling this the “panic phase” of this market’s cycle. Rick Ackerman feels that the price of gold will definitely hold its own as the conventional markets correct. This could spell opportunity for gold stock investors. Let’s see what Doc has to say about this.
I’ve posted this light-hearted comment in the past last year when the metals were also in a down spiral.
In the next few weeks, this is what we all need:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErvgV4P6Fzc
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
GnR Patience. A fantastic theme song for this week LPG.
Big ups!
It sure feels better from the sidelines than riding a barrel over Niagara like in spring ’13!!!
Great show Rick. That was a fine interview.
It’s the bullion banks saying ‘we’re bigger than the gold price, and we can put it anywhere we want.’ It’s a sentiment-based conviction trade. But they’re right only insofar as the fundamentals are going in their direction. Expecting a reversal, but not without an in full daylight bank robbery by the banks themselves against the very asset they should be accumulating. The fact that prices aren’t well off their lows says that they’re going in for the jugular one more time.
Good discussion guys. the downside target of support was $1131 from November 2014 that was broken, so the next support I see is $1044.70, then $993.20.
However, in the short-term, it does seem likely we’ll get a bounce this week. I would like to see Gold pull back briefly to the $1080-1065 zone before bouncing so there would be a little more umph to the bounce.
If gold does bounce from near $1080-$1065, then that is not really low enough to wash out the sentiment or drive more Gold is over headlines in the mainstream media. Gold really needs to get down to the $1000-$1050 zone or dip below $1000 for this washout to happen technically and emotionally. I still feel that $817 is a bit of a stretch though. The high $900’s seem most likely as the Major Bottom. Even a 61.8% Fib retracement from 1999-2011 move is only $891 ($890 was also 1980 high), so I just can’t see Gold breaking below that level.
They are going to sweep the table!
Shad, I might try again for NUGT.
I may try for JNUG, but I want to see if Gold will go down and test $1080-1065 zone one more time before the bounce into August. This may happen this week or next, and if we get there and hover, I’ll go long for a swing trade up.
Good luck in your ETF marital arts Jason!
The 50% Fib retracement was around $1087 (there are different numbers thrown out $1088, $1080, etc… depending on the specific starting and ending point that was used). The more I think about it, if Gold gets down under $1087 and anywhere close to $1080, then I’d still consider going long JNUG.
We’ll see how it goes this week.
Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bull 3X ETF (JNUG) -NYSEArca ๎ฃ Watchlist
8.76 Down 3.40(27.96%) 2:57PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
* Jason, I may play a short term bounce from here today in JNUG but it will be a safari kill……in and out.
Jason – OK after watching JNUG all day I finally took a position, expecting a bounce in the last 30 minutes of regular trading. This is a risky move as it has already turned down from here by $.07 but I still expect an end of the day rally. If not I’ll take my bruises and get out of the trade. Let’s see what happens in the next 37 minutes!
JNUG – 03:15:30
Bought shares @ $8.59
Darn – got stopped out and took a beating. May still re-enter a new position for the end of the day, as many shorts will likely want to take some profits.
Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bull 3X ETF (JNUG)
8.08 Down 4.08(33.55%) 3:35PM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price
Back in it at $8.08.
Well, looks like I’m holding into the after-hours markets or tomorrows pre-market for an exit strategy. A painful roller-coaster ride today with JNUG, but I thought it would recover by a buck or two in the last 30 minutes today. No dice though.
I’m looking to get in too, but didn’t see a trigger…I expect one soon. I’m looking for it to get down to around $7 give or take a few %, but will cue off price action, trendlines, and indicators.
I just saw it 33% sold off in one day’s trading and figured there is often a sharp reversal at closing. I was just going to make it a quick day trade this time, but now it has turned into a 2 day swing trade. If Gold puts in a temporary double bottom around $1080 or lower down to $1067-$1065 (Fib retracement/prior trough), then I’d consider hanging onto JNUG for a small leg up. If that happens tomorrow then I’ll just hang onto the position I have for a short jaunt.
Gold is continuing to get hit into the aftermarkets.
Live Spot Gold
Jul 20, 2015 16:18 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1094.90/1095.90
I should have taken my own advice and waited for a pullback near $1080 before starting a new position, but I’ve done very well in JNUG/JDST trading in the first 30 minutes or last 30 minutes of the day on wild swing reversals. Thing were so extreme today that I thought I’d give the short-term reversal trade a chance. Nope.
We’ll see how things open up tomorrow.
I think you will be OK. Gold is now posting an inside reversal at this hour and is heavily oversold. Personally my view was to hold fire until I saw another spike down near to yesterdays lows. That could come this morning or in the overnight trade. Just a gut instinct I suppose but I do favour Gary’s viewpoint that a strong bounce is in the cards.
Thanks. A bounce would be a nice relief rally and save my rear.
luckily it JNUG bounced today and I made it out with a nice profit…..saved by the bell!
I like 1087 and that is close to where gold went on Monday.
The 61.8% retracement of the bull market is $890 by the same token, which was equal to the 21 January 1980 futures high, strangely.
In that case 890 would be a key level.
The 1999 low at $253 and the 2011 high at $1920 distances from the 1980 peak at $890 are practically an exact Golden Ratio of 1:1.618. That means that the 1920 high was forecastable as a possible top if you are a Fibonacci nut. 2020 hindsight is an amazing thing.
(1920-890)/(890-253)=1.617.
OK, near enough!
Downtrend channel in gold since late 2013 has narrowed from around
in 2013 to $170 now. It’s barely a falling wedge – it’s just a falling channel!
the channel ceiling is at about $1250 and the floor is at $1080, so stepping down that channel would give a new range from 910 to 1080. If it takes a little time to get to the $910 target then it could go lower because the channel is downsloping.
1080-(1250-1080)=910.
So, $890 is well in the sights if the current trend channel breaks down.
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/will-downtrend-channel-of-gold-hold-or.html
The channel has narrowed from $550 in 2013 to $170 now, ie by about 1/3. I don’t know if that would qualify as a falling wedge for bulls to cling onto.
The channel has narrowed from $250 in 2013 to $170 now, ie by about 1/3. I donโt know if that would qualify as a falling wedge for bulls to cling onto. My typing!
It would be nice to be able to edit or delete one’s own posts on this blog.
Even more fun to be able to delete other people’s posts! ๐
Jason,
Watch today near the close for the POTENTIAL beginning of short covering.
I’m NOT saying it WILL happen.
I’m just saying this might give some clues for a bounce. It MIGHT.
Another thing to watch is the open tomorrow (or the days after) and any move from red to green OR any strong move red to green intraday. These are situations where you’ll have more odds on your side.
My 2cts.
LPG
$800 ………is on the way………………..HOLY MOSSCOW……..
That is ok……….because $1000 sucks anyways…………….
GOOD THINGS COME TO HIM WHO WAITS………………MOSCOW MAN………….
I should have read your post earlier Moscow Man. I got spanked today on JNUG, but if I had waited there was a good spot to have entered at a better price point.
Oh well, tomorrow is a new day.
sometimes you learn a lot from a spanking…………… ๐
This is true.
Today was tricky on JNUG Shad. No regret to have, to be honest. Especially given the 12% decline already on Friday.
Personally, I made 1 trade on it the long side – was chatting with Richard on Skype during it, he’s a witness (long @ 9.87, out @ 10.13). That’s the only kinda clear set-up I saw on the long side for most of the day.
Then I waited for the close for a move up. I had an order in at 7.70 just 2mn from the close but I was a few tenths of a sec too late (was bidding the offer, but my order didn’t filled – other guys got filed instead of me) and I decided not to chase so I missed the run to $8 (that was the idea of the trade).
As I said, today was tricky – at least in my book. A one-way street with hardly any bounce for a 30% move down despite already 12% lower on Friday.
Tomorrow, if I choose to trade it again, I’ll pay attention to how JDST behaves if it reaches the $17.5-18 zone. This MIGHT give a clue for a bounce on JNUG.
If it goes through that zone like butta’, guess we’re in for a move to $19.5-20 on JDST before any potential reversal on JNUG. Also, any lower highs on back side of the move for JDST and I’m interested in JNUG again.
We’ll see.
Best to you, and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
Yes, it was tricky and you summed it up well:
“A one-way street with hardly any bounce for a 30% move down despite already 12% lower on Friday.”
As mentioned above, I really thought in the last 30 minutes there would be a mini short-covering reversal. I had been stopped out, and re-entered at $8.08 (without a stop loss), and then watched it fall to $7.49 and cringed, but held off selling in case it reversed back. The share-price did come all the way back to $8.00 even and then dropped in after-hours as gold continued to sell off.
We’ll see how things go tomorrow, I may just hang on through a slight pullback to see if gold hits $1080ish, and like you said if JDST makes a move at $18, or starts putting in lower highs. Honestly, I feel most comfortable watching the overall movements of GDXJ (even when trading JNUG or JDST).
Good thoughts man. May your week be prosperous beyond measure!
Shad,
I hear you re: the last 30mn reversal expectation. I was actually stalking JNUG w. the same view. ๐
FWIW, I held off pulling the trigger at 15:35-15:39mn at just above $8 for 1 simple reason:
given that JNUG puked all day and that we were just above $8 and that there was only 21 mn to go, I was still unimpressed by the price action.
In my book, this thing should have had started to bounce properly a few min earlier – and it had not done so. I must have started to bounce nicely ESPECIALLY given its 12% move down on Friday and the fact it was down 30% on the day already.
So I decided: LET IT PROVE with 1 nice candle bar that it really wants to bounce.
And I thought: maybe it will just do it in the last 6 mn (from 15:54mn), or worse, in the last 3 mn (from 15:57mn). Well… as we know, this baby decided to do its thing in the last 3mn.
As I said, I found today tricky, and I only waited for what I thought were the best set-ups (on the long side) intraday before pulling the trigger.
FWIW, what ignited my JNUG trade at $9.87 was silver doing the r/g move a few mn previously. You read that right: this is what got me interested in JNUG. Normally, I don’t watch silver for deciding to trade JNUG ๐ ๐ ๐
As I said, IMHO, today was tricky. I’m confidant many got burned/pinched on the long side trying to catch THE bottom. I personally find it safer to let the instrument PROVE/SHOW where the bottom is as opposed to me trying to anticipate it.
GL on your side for the rest of the week.
LPG
“When going through hell, keep going”
LPG – Very good thoughts as always. That is interesting you were watching Silver and then got interested in JNUG. Do you feel Silver will lead Gold out of the rut?
Good advice to let the ETF prove it wants to bounce with a long candle. You are correct that I was trying to anticipate it instead of looking for validation technically, and this is where I went astray. It’s good to have a friendly reminder to get back to the basics in TA.
LPG – YOU sir are the man! Thanks again for the good feedback.
Hello Shad,
Re: silver leading gold out of the rout, I honestly have no clue.
To state the obvious, recent observation suggests silver has been more resilient than gold on this last move down. Will it last ? -> I have no clue.
What I can tell you is that what I’ve done is trying to calculate where silver “should” be trading assuming we get to $98 on GLD ($1020 spot gold, ball park) and also if we hit low $800s on gold. I have used 76x as the gold to silver ratio, BUT I AM ALSO COGNIZANT of the fact that this ratio might start to move lower (Matthew would say it has start already) and that therefore my projected silver price if much lower gold prices occur might actually be too conservative. That’s all I can say.
So as usual, I truly have no view on silver’s outperformance or not. I just remain open to potential outcomes, and try to be prepared/ready in case those outcomes occur. And it’s ok for me if I miss the bottom – I am not trying to catch it.
I doubt this will help, but this is how I look at things.
Best to you as always, and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
Thanks LPG. Interesting thoughts to consider on the silver ratio and how that may affect the miners. There are definitely a lot of moving parts.
What happened to AGQ? I had a copy of an old chart from 2014 showing the lows at around 20 in early 2014 when silver was near $20 (20 and 20, easy to remember)!
Now I look at the chart and it shows 32.18 – but against the 2014 lows that are now showing at around 60. Did they do a 3:1 reverse split or something?
Wow! JNUG has been an even better way to lose money than AGQ!
What’s your holding period on these things? I noticed that over time JDST which is the inverse of JNUG is in a long term downtrend even though it is a junior miners bear fund. It seems like a good way to get well chewed up on volatility if you stay in these things for more than a short time.
.
Hi All……Im hoping gold goes all the way to $1 an ounce , then i can buy myself a full set of gold dentures…..I”ll show all those rappers some real bling.
Nice one Irishtony ! As always !
Hope all’s good on your side.
Keep it real.
LPG
There’s our blinged-out Leprechaun. He bought those golden dentures at the Dollar store.
that was a TONGUE STONED PAIR……….
๐
Gold may even reach $600. A commodity bust is coming. Get ready for a nice deflationary moment in time That is brutal. I am looking forward to it. Gold miners are going to be what Tech stocks were to the 90s in the five years following the bust.
Hope everyone is well.
I understand that most of us will not like the idea, but I, personally, would welcome gold in the $800s – assuming it is a short-lived move.
As a matter of fact, I have already prepared orders for IF/WHEN such price levels occur. I believe this will be GREAT level/zone/region to buy and take advantages of.
If we are right in the opinion that this is a cyclical bear, then near $800 might not be seen in the next few years for a long long time.
Importantly, assuming we are still hovering near all-time highs on the conventional when gold potentially reaches the $800s region/zone, this will be a great risk/reward investment (keeping in mind that ALMOST no producer makes money at this price level).
My 2cts.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG