Sprott Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium 2014
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Our entire program this weekend originated from the Sprott Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium in Vancouver, B.C. We were fortunate that our friends, each of whom can be accurately characterized as the best of the best, helped us put together a great program. It was also a pleasure to welcome Dr. Richard Postma as a co-host of this great show.
- Segments 1 – 2: Since we are known for our precious metals commentary, we open the program with Jeff Clark. We call him the gold guru from Casey Research. His commentary in the first two segments will not disappoint.
- Segment 3: We discuss both bullion and related political issues with Andy Schectman and Bill Holter from Miles Franklin.
- Segment 4: Our friend Eric Coffin, co-founder of The Hard Rock Analyst, discusses the junior resource market in general and provides us with examples of some of his favorite companies.
- Segment 5: Rick Rule of Sprott Global joins Eric Coffin in a discussion of resource investing.
- Segments 6 – 7: The Godfather of our industry, Doug Casey, Chairman of Casey Research, joins us providing his usual, blunt and sometimes irreverent comments on political issues that we and most people agree with.
- Segment 8: Rick Rule of Sprott Global wraps up the Show with us providing his prospective on investing.
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Thanks Professor. It was truly fun to put together!
Agreed. EXCELLENT show!! I would have to agree with Casey on nation states as well (maybe we would all be better off eliminating our federal governments n sticking to states / provinces (or just 500 million very small states ;))
Well 500 million micro states might provide a selection of jurisdictions to choose from but it is doubt full that it would last long. The natural form of government is empire.
On the other hand there is no doubt that most large scale governments as we know them have from a moral and economic stand point disgraced themselves possibly beyond redemption.
Sorry if this has already been posted. It should be a must read.
Lawsuit Stunner: Half of Futures Trades in Chicago Are Illegal Wash Trades
By Pam Martens: July 24, 2014
Since March 30 of this year when bestselling author, Michael Lewis, appeared on 60 Minutes to explain the findings of his latest book, Flash Boys, as “stock market’s rigged,” America has been learning some very uncomfortable truths about the tilted playing field against the public stock investor.
Throughout this time, no one has been more adamant than Terrence (Terry) Duffy, the Executive Chairman and President of the CME Group, which operates the largest futures exchange in the world in Chicago, that the charges made by Lewis about the stock market have nothing to do with his market. The futures markets are pristine, according to testimony Duffy gave before the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee on May 13.
On Tuesday of this week, Duffy’s credibility and the honesty of the futures exchanges he runs came into serious question when lawyers for three traders filed a Second Amended Complaint in Federal Court against Duffy, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade and other individuals involved in leadership roles at the CME Group.
The conduct alleged in the lawsuit, backed by very specific examples, reads more like an organized crime rap sheet than the conduct of what is thought by the public to be a highly regulated futures exchange in the U.S.
I don’t know why this a bigger deal. This is atrocious.
It means most of the trading is fraud and manipulation and a fake market. What else is fake?
What else is fake.This was quite the find…In addition to wash trades, the lawsuit charges that the CME Group has entered into “clandestine” incentive agreements.
“Defendants have entered into clandestine incentive/rebate agreements in established and heavily traded contract markets with favored firms such as DRW Trading Group and Allston Trading, paying up to $750,000.00 per month in one of the most heavily traded futures contracts in the world. At no time during the Class Period have Defendants voluntarily revealed to the trading public that these material agreements exist in established markets. Defendants through their lawyers have repeatedly ridiculed the suggestion that clandestine agreements exist.”
No one went to prison over the mortgage fraud. This may go to the slap on the wrist department.
Realy about time some serious penalties were paid by those proven guilty!
A lot more than most folks realize, unfortunately!
The markets have been crooked for long enough now that anyone just finding out hasn’t been paying attention. The issue is most people couldn’t care less.
What I would like to know is how shares in companies that lose money hand over fist keep selling.
Obviously, somebody believes!
Thank you Market.
I have been a bit out . Of touch for a few days. As soon as I reply to comments, I will read this.
Best
All-Star line up for PM devotees.
Many thanks!
It was fun!
Chimpanzees as Doug Casey refers to some Americans is a nice touch, but they probably see themselves as real swingers.
I’ve noticed that most Americans seem to monkey around at work
What’s next for the idiocracy? Feces flinging?
You know Matthew,
It has almost gotten to that point hasen’t it!
Thank God that not everyone is “eating cake”!
Many of us are concerned; well informed; and, truly care!
Machine Gun and Brian,
Of course, I agree with both of you.
Hey Rick…I know some fellas that need some money badly down in Arizona…Al was pumping them awhile back, now they are on their backs…Passport Potash…you might wind up owning part of the largest potash mine in the US.
Common Tom, you don’t really think our Al is a pumper.
Thanks Machine Gun.
But you know, it really all depends on just how you define “pumper” doesn’t it.
Remember that the other side of the equation is “dumper”!
Pumping I suppose is a correct word.
I visited the facility twice and really believed what they told me.
I too lost our investment here.
These folks are not dishonest in my opinion, the situation just has not worked so far.
Pumping yes and losing also a big yes!
Investing in resource companies is risky, everything can look great and something can come out of nowhere to blindside everything.
Risk is ok, nobody wins every time, the issue the last few years is not being rewarded appropriately when one pays off.
I gotta tell you bb, I think that is slowly but surely changing.
Will the in depth interview with Roger on Theralase be today or tomorrow? Thanks
Hi Dan, on Monday.
We simply ran out of time.
Africa for Africans, Asia for Asians, White Countries for Everyone is White Genocide.
Open borders means NO communities, means no private property as anyone who can gain access to the country can gain access to others resources via government redistribution.
What I see are foreigners who made a mess of their country and want to come
live in the land that my ancestors worked so hard to build and pass on
to me and my children– NOT to them. They did not build it, they could
not build it.
I see people who want to steal our country. Politicians and their non-white ethnic special interests want to help them steal our country too.
That is White Genocide. Jail is where these enablers and invaders belong.
This is a great summary of the immigration issue. This would be a great interview.
The Camp of the Saints by Robert Henderson
Get a life with that racist $#it…
It is OUR white idiots destroying the world and rigging our markets..
Jay, I think what cecil is trying to say is that he is not a big fan of multiculturalism.
Ha! You mean the above is just a policy statement!
Explaining it in layman’s terms. I agree with what you wrote, Birdman. Canada, the US, Mexico have been a melting pot for different cultures since the beginning. But in some countries multiculturalism has been a disaster. Look at London, where there are sections that are under Sharia Law. Look at Marseille in France, same problems. I think Cecil is referring to these type of situations.
Or a big fan of history.
Jay, it looks racist to me when you put “white” and “idiot” together. Also, I reject the collectivists’ wish that we all take ownership of the actions of others. I am responsible for MY actions, never OUR actions. I am not responsible for the actions of others based on ancestry or otherwise. I am also not responsible for the actions of any government and have never endorsed one.
Guilt is not something we inherit!
Matt I know ( I’m Caucasian also) but was just making a point that there is no right or wrong race, agree entirely with your point on the individual 😉
Well Jay, that is at least three of us. I believe that most of us on this site feel that way!
You really are a smart guy Matthew!
BINGO! Matthew – well, well said!
Apparently he does not know that most of America including Canada, the US and Mexico have been multi-racial and multiligual since the very beginning. The statistics prove it beyond any shadow of a doubt. Our countries are a melting pot of cultures, religions, beliefs and societies. We are all mixed up together in one big house.
Well put! I have to say I’m with Doug on 7 billion little sovereign countries. Our country is the world.. why put ridiculous arbitrary divisions between us all. We re all human beings after all. Then we d judge the individual on their actions, not their culture / race / religious beliefs / etc
How could Canada have been multiracial since the beginning of time if as late as 1971, just a multiculturalism was introduced, 96 percent of the population was ethnically European or White? All the institutions, parliament, Christianity, laws, education, were European in character. What you are saying comes from a brainwashed mind, a product of the relentless cultural Marxist ideology imposed to students and in the media.
Your funny Cecil, why don’t you say it honestly? White people stole it and commited a genocide to take it fair and square. Those good Christian values and all.
Guess its all perspective.
bb,
As everyone on this site is aware, I am a Christian.
Having said that, the way that the Indians were treated is absolutely criminal to me!
The actions were in absolutely no way Christian in nature.
North America was the home to the indigenous peoples for tens of thousands of years.
When you talk about genocide,Henry,I think of what white folks did to native people on their land,the land you call ‘white’ land.
Goldman recently raised their target to 1200. They might try to get it there for a short time and then it could bounce up quickly.
Mat, Bird and Chris,
I do agree with you guys.
You too Jay!
Multiculturalism is one of the reasons why nationalism is on the rise in Europe. Like it or not, this issue will have to be dealt with in the future.
You’re correct, Chris. Multiculturism is a nice idea but unfortunately it often deteriorates into balkinization or “mini-balkinization”—-look at what France is now dealing with as regards protests/riots against Israel. Imagine if muslim populations become larger then ever in European sovereigns and they don’t shed their extremism. The same could happen in the U.S. Once the tiger is let out of his cage, it’s difficult to return him. It would be one thing if assimilation occurs but unfortunately, that doesn’t always apply.
I might just give another example—–Ukraine.
Yeh Doc, there is a great example of multiculturalism working!
Damn, bit my tongue again!
Yeah Al. we all understand the limitations of multiculturalism isn’t that what happened to your melting pot.
Actually The United States never had a melting pot what they had was a crock pot.
I assume you are referring to the present day. As in crock of $+?& pot!
The problem really is with the political establishment they simply can’t leave something that works, they feel the need to change everything always in order to validate that government cheque.
Yes, it will Chris
I always wondered why Jews are hated around the globe…is it because they stick together and refuse to assimilate?
GDXJ breakout and backtest, looking great:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p58288486887&a=359630743
AL ASKE RICK RULE SPROTT 10 BILLION GOLD DOWN 25 % AND THE STOCKS MUCH MORE ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Fundamental fancy pants INVESTORS ! ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
NR 1 Make you pore NR 2 kill you !!!!!!!!!!!!!
I heard him stress enforcement of immigration laws and she kept trying to make him say something really stupid. That is why I don’t spend much time on “entertainment” ,Tv.
she sure has a motor mouth……..
I was talking about the first news clip………..MSN BLONDIE……..
Nice work Al & Cory,
That was one of the better weekend shows imo.
Cheers.
About the Brics Bank. If I am not mistaken it is denominated in dollars. I am surprised by how small the capital is considering the size of the contributors and their risk profile due to past credit. The new bank has been created with a fund of 100 billion which is peanuts in the world of things. The IMF itself has over 90 million ounces of gold on hand which exceeds the value of the Brics Bank capital by many billions at current gold prices. I wonder why, if the founding countries are all solid gold buyers/ holders, that they did not just back their new project with the real goods. Anybody know? Maybe that is in the works in the future.
The $ US is…& still will be for a long while yet (imo) one of the first flights of safety for Big Institutions if the SHTF anytime soon.
People peddling the Euro, Yuan, Rouble etc ha ha ha…money I believe would flock to the Yen before any of them (as dire as what the Yen is).
The Looney, Aussie, Kiwi, etc are no more than minnows also…they’d also be dumped in favour of the $ US.
I’ll just keep adding to my portfolio of precious metals, energy, agriculture & other hard asset commodities.
But I think general equities will soar yet well beyond where they currently are…the average mug punter is far from all in yet…but eventually they’ll throw their hands in too…
…then WHAM !
I think the point Bird is that they have got it started.
I thought $100 billion was small too, then it occurred, It should grow and develop to what they intend over time. Its new to these guy, smart to start small.
From the little Ive read about the pounds end of being the world reserve currency, it happened slowly, some places more slow than others, the physical currency had to be gathered up for example.
I think we are witnessing the end of the American dollar as the world reserve currency, looks to me we are seeing little pieces at a time, this bank being one of the pieces.
True enough bb. The Brics bank has indeed been set up to accept new members. One of their conditions is that the original group of five contributors never fall below 55% of paid in contributions. In other words they don’t intend to lose control of the bank as it grows and adds other countries. Membership is (in theory) open to anyone but my belief is that the focus will be on the developing nations of Africa and South East Asia. With the combined gold holdings of the major partners there is little doubt the new bank could fully back its reserves with gold at current levels and put itself on an equal footing with the IMF. That could be coming in the future. China, Russian and India in particular are serious gold holders. South Africa is a major gold producer. The one weak link where gold is concerned would be Brazil as it currently ranks 41st on the list of the worlds largest gold holders. What is interesting however is that it had dramatically increased its reserves in the last two quarters of 2013 and now holds an estimated 67 tonnes. Reserves there were bolstered by an amazing 90% in just a few short months. There may be a connection to the Brics Bank that we do not yet know about. Little is ever mentioned about Brazil as a serious gold buyer but that may be changing and it is worth paying attention to what they do now as the BRICS bank has been formally established.
I overlooked Brazil, your right of course.
As you know there have been a few countries recently that have increased their gold holdings,
I suppose they could just be balancing their portfolios, but my guess is there is a plan for gold.
I like the “basket of currencies” idea with gold as one of them.
I sure would have nothing to do with Eric Coffin after he no showed over 50 of us at the Sprott Conference for an afternoon workshop that had been scheduled for I would guess over two months. Many of us went to the Sprott desk at the Conference to see what the deal was & to say they were unhappy was an understatement. I don’t think you will see him at any of their deals in the future. Based on results, Eric looks after Eric & screw the rest of us……………..I will pass.
The Sprott Conference was great! And to my knowledge, Coffin was the only one of the speakers that gave them any problems
Chris, we all have a bad day now and again especially as we are all getting older bit by bit.
I are so right Bird, led be me. If Coffin had called the Conference folks and said he could not make it because of “X”, no problems. Stuff happens. No show a scheduled speech is another matter………..unless he got hit by a truck in front of the Fairmont which I kinda doubt.
Chris, it was nice to put a face to a name at the conference—-nice to have met you. Doc.
Morning Chris,
Thanks for telling us as I did not know that.
Great to see you at Kenton’ s lunch.
Please email me your friend’s name who is in real estate.
Best
I think I should again reiterate that I continue to believe we will see a 10% plus correction during this summer or early fall. Concerns that stock markets are stretched continue to grow and the persistent worry that such a correction might happen at the termination of the Federal Reserves QE this November strongly suggest to me that stock markets will react in advance of that time period. We should all be on heightened alert in the coming days and weeks as markets will do what they do best which is look forward and move before key dates.
Bird, interesting that you made that comment—-the momentum indicators at the end of the week showed a downward bias for the conventional markets to start the week. Of course, it was minimal and it could revert quite quickly on Monday. I would rather see the conventional markets continue their climb a little longer along with the continuing fall in the PMs; that way we could finally see the potential triple top that I would like in the Dow/Gold ratio.
Hi Richard, I agree we should see that triple top by the end of august
This week should bring back the sort of “goldilocks” mentality at least for a few weeks as growth picks up but not too much and the fed eliminates QE and says some hawkish language changes on wed, that may be the catalyst to this last time down in PM’s? The dollar cranking higher as the Euro cracks down wil reinforce this potential move imo
That makes sense to me guys. Right now incidentally the dollar is approaching key overhead resistance. We could know by Monday if it will break through to the upside as it is just that close.
Basically that is exactly one of the things we should be looking for if markets were to correct down is that the dollar would rise. Bonds meanwhile may push one time higher and so rates would also press lower. Few are anticipating that.
Meanwhile I continue to watch as some commodities like beans, wheat and corn etc are in the process of bottoming. To me that is the most interesting of all simply because a rise in commod’s suggests a rotational shift out of equities (at least temporarily) and there should be some support found for both miners and precious metals at that time.
This is perhaps when resource equities begin to finally participate in the stock market euphoria we have seen the past years. It is hard to really imagine that most stocks could get so inflated and never have the resource stocks join them in the parade higher. I won’t be getting too excited though as gold itself looks like it should still face headwinds so I am only really talking about energy and some of the beaten down resources for the most part although some gold mines should participate.
In particular those mines that are not exclusively focused on gold and silver.
I noticed too on Friday that copper broke from the group and declined whereas gold rose. Is that another warning that stocks might suffer a summer correction? As well we are getting poor news on GDP and growth predictions for the global economy. There have been quite a few revisions downward and the recent US GDP print was not that great.
Those reasons amongst others such as recent +warnings from all of the BIS, Fed and IMF indicate to me caution is warranted. We can all guess and wonder what may happen next but when the policymakers start outright telling us investors have become too exuberant it is time to really start paying attention.
Those folks understate everything so even small comments should be considered red flashing signs to those of us who listen to their words. I just saw that Goldman was expressing caution for the coming month or two as well. Hell, it is almost a quorum.
Bird,
I still think that geopolitics will play a huge role.
Ever read “Epicenter” by Joel Rosenberg? I would appreciate your opinion.
Bird, so what you are saying is a similar taper tantrum like deflationary event that rakes everything down? I think GDP will be ok, durable goods and increasing restock of business inventories should help and remember they are tinkering with the index which should help also. I think your event happens in September or even October. Looks like a temporary goldilocks situation to me coming, the powers that be want a good number for cover while they raise rates or at least start shifting sentiment that way with this fomc meeting. Expect more upbeat language soothing the rate rise need
Not exactly, NYC. I don’t think we will see a Taper Tantrum as the market has already adapted and the intentions of the Fed have been for the most part digested by investors already. Instead what I think is happening is that sentiments are souring to some extent despite positive (yet diminishing) upward momentum and that many would see it as beneficial to have a pullback in order to reinvigorate the markets to run higher at a later date. The problem as I see it is that there is now a recognition that the interventions will end during a time when markets have historically shown a tendency to be weak or unstable and on that basis that some participants will go to cash or reallocate elsewhere out of stocks as means of avoidance in advance of October/ November. The result would mean that upward momentum in stock markets might stall out as early as August as profit taking ensued but I also suspect that there would be a continuation of buying once the period in question has passed resulting in a resumption of price gains. Obviously we cannot know exactly what will happen and I hope you appreciate that I am theorizing based on how markets may react to the termination of Fed liquidity. The Fed meanwhile has kept to its word thus far that the taper would continue until it had run to its conclusion. There has also been an acknowledgement that latter QE’s were not getting the bang for the buck that was hoped for and so its effects have been diminishing over time. I really doubt there is much stomach to introduce a new round of interventions at this stage of the game so markets may be expected to just tough it out and find their own equilibrium without additional supports. I also think there is a belief that a European QE will now supplant Fed efforts so that may indeed get underway as US efforts fade. In any event, bullishness in general is still sufficiently strong that an outright crash seems unlikely so I would plan for no more than a modest correction. We should pay utmost attention to this upcoming Fed meeting though and listen carefully to what is being conveyed.
Agree Bird particularly about paying attention to the upcoming Fed meeting.
Thanks Al. I will be looking forward to hearing how your guests interpret the message that gets sent that day.
Will be interesting, Bird
Since it is so quiet here tonight I have an interesting bit of reading on hand to link too.
You have no doubt all heard about the SEC’s proposal to “gate” funds and impose redemption fees should another crisis or run on funds arise. Most of us here expect that at some point in the future another crisis will erupt and so those of you who have money tied up in Money Market Funds should probably get familiar with the proposals being discussed.
MMF’s currently account for almost three trillion dollars in investments so this is a pretty big deal. If you have a mutual fund you are likely already invested even if you are not aware of it. The idea of the SEC is to prevent a run on liquidity during an emergency and thus be in a position to grant permission to the funds to block redemption’s or impose redemption fees if necessary. For how long is entirely unknown but the closures should be expected to last as long as there is a threat to markets.
The key here though is that the rule applies to “Funds” and the Fund administrators. As I understand it individual investors will remain unaffected. So this is maybe a good time to brush up on your personal investing skills and make your purchases without going through the mutual fund and money market fund channels if they can be avoided.
Anyway, the discussion on “gates” starts on page 153 of this PDF. The paper is titled “Money Market Fund Reform”. Hopefully it won’t put you to sleep too quickly!
Securities and exchange Commission — Money Market Fund Reform.
https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2013/33-9408.pdf
Thanks Bird
Just as a follow up to the SEC proposal linked above you might also want to spend an hour listening to Jim Rickards discuss some of the implications of “gating” and hear his take on the variety of other investment classes and groups that could also suspend sales and redemption’s during a financial emergency.
These include investments held by Hedge Funds amongst others. To repeat, the regulatory proposals apply to funds specifically and that should tell you as an investor that it will probably pay to do your own buying and selling if you fear the risk that is entailed by being potentially trapped within an instrument that is regulated or a fund that includes language and riders specifying the suspension of redemption’s under certain circumstances.
For some people that might not be so easy as they are most familiar with handing over their money to professional managers or perhaps they are less confident selecting on their own. Just know the risks.
Jim is stating that there is now a growing acknowledgement amongst policy makers that another 2008 crisis is probably inevitable and that steps are being taken to minimize the damage. He believes that will mean people will simply not be able to access their money and seems to suggest that this amounts to confiscation even if it is for a short period of time. As an aside these proposals are in addition to bail-ins that have now been adopted in many countries and should soon be in the US as well. We might all ponder on the implications of having both our pensions and savings impounded simultaneously and wonder how that will look on the next bad bank day.
The interview is excellent in my opinion and well worth your time.
Jim Rickards Audio Interview- July 17th 2014
http://www.afecustodial.com/download/audio/Jim-Rickards-July-17th-2014.mp3
Great show, guys.