A round table with Rick, Chris, and Gary that you should not miss
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Thank God.
good one Goldman…………
Ditto..Goldman…gosh he was getting OLD……
Yellen did not want to rock the boat.
She will never admit high inflation.
She will never do ANYTHING TO RAISE INTEREST RATES.
She cannot raise interest rates without going into a debt death spiral.
She may talk taper. She may appear to taper, but she CANNOT TAPER.
She can taper as long as “Belgium” buys US bond in increasing quantity.
Gary is right about deflation/inflation. The Fed will print until it kills the dollar.
Correct. That is the end game. The Achilles heal is the currency. A country can go down this path until they reach the point where they destroy the currency. We did it in the 70’s and we will do it again in the years ahead.
You do know they are tapering I hope. You maybe wonder why that is? Perhaps because debt really does matter, Gary. Your assertion that debt is meaningless because they can just push a few buttons and conjure up trillions of dollars to wipe it away is absolutely incredulous. If you were correct then why is it that England was still paying back the US for World War II debt borrowing until just this past year? Keep in mind they were printing back in the 1930’s and 40’s as well. In other words the national banks were conjuring up fictitious money backed by nothing at all and that is why the Weimar as the main example went into hyperinflation. But make no mistake…..all that magic money and the debt attached had to be paid back or defaulted on. In Britain’s case they did not outright default and so the bill took more than a half century to finally be repaid. That should partly answer the question about why the Fed is tapering because in fact those printed dollars have real meaning to others. You cannot get away with just printing them willy nilly without consequences. Debt is therefore far from meaningless as you keep asserting and the outcome of the repayment process is going to mean a long period of slow growth or worse as future income is taxed away by the debt reduction process. Probably much worse actually.
By the way, you might let Rick get a word in edgewise next time instead of steamrolling the discussion.
Birdman..I i think Gary is very patient and is normally the one that does not get the opportunity to “get his popint across” Well, he did today and I think he did so in a very nice manner!
He has been repeating the same thing for weeks. We heard it already. I disagree with his use of the word inflation where assets are concerned. To my mind the supply and demand for homes, stocks and bonds is just not the same thing as demand for milk meat and cheese. Consumables and those things we ordinarily suffer as inflating prices over time go onto the expense side of the ledger. We do not consider them part of our wealth. Homes and stocks on the other hand have a lifespan and don’t equate to simple consumption. In any case, if there were genuine inflation it should be showing up in gold and commodities rather than in stocks and bonds as these are most sensitive to changes in the value of currency. The market obviously does not see it that way. If it did then gold would bid at 2500 dollars or better and copper at six buckss. So in fact the market does not agree with Gary either.
Bird,
Just be patient, the process is just beginning. It started with the spike in the CRB early this year. One could have said the same thing in early 2007 that there was no inflation but that was the point were it was just beginning and ultimately culminated in a severe inflationary event in 2008 that collapsed the global economy.
By the way… Gary is not saying the debt does not matter…. It does… It just does not matter in arguing the deflation direction because The Fed will do whatever it takes to stop deflation. They will do so much to stop it they will in fact create it… eventually (as Gary has alluded to)
Yes he did say that Dan. His exact words were that debt was meaningless. Check the interview.
Yes..but you are taking those words exactly…he was referring to debt and how it does not matter to deflation
If Gary thought debt did not matter he would not be long gold! His premise for the secular Gold Bull is debt and dollar devaluation! In this regard Debt matters!
Are you his lawyer or brother in law by any chance?
Birdman, they say they are tapering.
They are tapering.
Bird,
You aren’t listening to me. Of course there are consequences. The consequences are inflation. A government can print until the point it destroys it’s currency. That is the Achilles heal to trying to print one’s way out of a debt bubble. Eventually the currencies purchasing power starts to collapse. That is what happened in the 70’s and 80’s.
In reality that is a default on the debt in real terms, but in nominal terms the government doesn’t default because they just service the debt (no matter how large) with the printing press.
No, you are not getting it Gary. Debt is the deflator in advanced primary economies. Debt servicing is what becomes the drag on the whole country in the end and thus “printing” is not inflationary at all. It is in fact a deflationary act which is why the Fed is so anxious to exit the exceptional easing that they have been engaging in. The price that is ultimately paid by monetization is that domestic savings get cannibalized and investment falls. The freedom to create the next wave of expansion that might ordinarily follow a period of increasing money supply does not therefore happen and instead it is taxed away which leads to falling consumption as discretionary spending dries up. So we will not see too many dollars chasing too few goods and this is especially the case as demographics start to play a bigger role in the consumption side of the economy. Perhaps it is a paradox that QE results in a deflationary event but that is my conclusion after having looked at this for so long. The problem with low rates is that savings and investment suffer more and more without there being an offsetting benefit of rising consumption that might balance the economy. So it is actually impossible for even hyperinflation to happen where credit cannot be forced into the bloodstream of the country against a backdrop of taxes and debt servicing compressing household income.
Bird, can you explain why Belgium buys bond in the quantity surpassing its GDP? How is that possible?
There are too many coincidences!
No I cannot. I have heard Belgium is only the location of the purchases though. We will have to wait to find out if the buyer is really the Fed but I suspect it is not.
Not sure who but it definitely helps the taper since it makes the amount of bond purchase larger than before the taper if you add both together. I think it is either FED or swap with EU. In either cases, it is secrete QE.
Well said Birdman. Rick has the confidence of experience. Gary seems to be very unsure of himself.
Gary you took the other guest to school! Im shocked they don’t get it. Maybe they have been hanging out with Bird for to long. lol.
Gary’s new theory is actually a very dated idea but it is also quite a popular one on most gold sites. The basic premise is that QE will unleash a tidal wave of new dollars that will be spent into the economy similar to what happened in Wiemar Germany and thus a massive devaluation of the currency will follow resulting in the destruction of the domestic money itself.
That idea was promoted heavily in the early days of the QE program following the Credit Crisis and it caught the attention of the gold community as they felt it signaled the demise of the dollar. The end was clearly inevitable and all were told to exit USD trades and buy up the golden stuff instead. They obliged of course and did so in great numbers. Then they got their arses handed them on a platter as first silver and then gold abruptly started falling.
But an obvious windfall would be the final result according to the promoters and therefore gold was still the true answer despite its declines. That was not to be the case though as much of the manufactured liquidity instead went straight back onto the books of the Fed in the form of excess reserves and as a result of widespread impaired credit most Americans were unable and unwilling to partake of the banquet of money on offer.
When inflation did not arrive as predicted, the original idea slowly evolved and changed into theories that all that new money was actually the source of distortions that were starting to appear in markets and as a result a great number of conspiracy ideas were born.
That also suited the gold camp as it could explain why precious metals were falling even as QE was expanding. The manipulation excuse was convenient if unprovable (for newsletter writers) and many gold novices were subsequently eviscerated and ruined as gold prices plummeted despite so many arguments to the contrary of why they should bounce back with a vengeance.
Gary has a new spin on the old idea though. In his version there is Fed directed inflation in assets that miraculously jump from one asset class to another and will eventually materialize themselves back into gold and other commodities.
Like in the movie “Back to the Future”, that money hops around in time and space. It must land somewhere he contends. It is novel approach all right but does not attempt to explain how most asset values are created in the first place nor why their values can also inexplicably disappear.
Look at housing as an example. What is a house really worth? Some say it is the value of all the labour and materials that go into its construction plus the cost of the land. But is that its real value? We have seen how garbage homes in high demand neighborhoods can be priced in the millions while superbly crafted old mansions in Detroit are not fetching even a dollar.
Asset values are therefore often only worth what another person will pay. When the confidence in their value erodes so does price. But where did the money go if a home of a million today won’t catch a bid for 250,000 tomorrow?
The point is that the money did not exist in the first place. It is only a value ascribed by willing buyers and opportunistic sellers. Paper wealth is thus fleeting in that sense and values can rise and fall dramatically depending on economic conditions. The only time the money is real is when the sales are completed and actual cash changes hands.
So in fact money does not jump from assets to commodities as Gary suggests because we know that as asset prices fall the theoretical worth actually just vanishes. That was not real money in the first place as it turns out. Just paper claims on what another greater fool might pay.
And we all know this to be true if we have learned anything from history. During the Great Depression most real estate declined dramatically in value and thus destroyed the collateral that was backing the credit system.
Wealth did not jump from homes to gold. It was only those few who positioned ahead of time, were cash heavy or were not financially impaired by the assault of the stock market crash of 1929 who were able to participate in the fortunes that followed. Many indebted millionaires were in fact quite ruined by the crash of the day and they never recovered. Even modest debts proved ruinous for those who lost their income streams and could not service obligations.
So while Gary’s idea of capital jumping from assets to commodities is cute it certainly does not hold much water in my books. He had best brush up on what really happens during periods of financial calamity to better understand that asset values can be fleeting and are therefore an unreliable indicator of wealth during hard times.
So yeah…I get it Glenfidish. Do you?
Birdman,
It was a good read. Thanks to your contributions and to a different perspective 🙂
Now Bird how about you give me one trade? Just tell us what your current status is, and what your current status is and what your exit strategy is. Since you are one of the greats I here i would really like to see one trade at the very least. Im not trying to be a prick. I really just want to make money. Lots of it lol.
Regards
glen
As a rule I do not offer trades although I have done so in the past when I had a high degree of certainty. We are all imperfect though. All those trades worked very nicely with the exception of one bet on the S&P correcting that did not pan out in either direction in my time frame. The problem however is that this site is not really for investment advice so I don’t offer any. Especially if asked. Sorry…I am sure you can find a good site to subscribe too. Most of the guests here will be happy to take you on if you need help.
The dollar was conceived in sin.
thanks guys …….great comments…………appreciate………………j
Personally, I think all of your commentators are terrific. However, I do believe Gary got shortchanged, however, on his gold call. Everyone was congratulating Doc, but Gary nailed the recent bottom in gold (and also suggested a stop below 1240 I believe). If he’s right and the secular bull is again on the run, many kudos to Gary. He’ll get my subscription.
As to the inflation/deflation debate I confess I am confused, but a helluva lot of “things” are going up in price in my neck of the woods. Who said inflation is always a monetary phenomena?
Gary has been right on recently about the gold market. He will still admit that with all this Fed intervention is playing havoc with some of his cycles. As for the inflation/deflation argument I think it is more a matter of time before we see both. I personally think we are in an inflationary period but when things start to collapse everything will go down and that will be deflationary.
Yes cory but his calls would have got you in on june 5th on miners. This was a very good and in line with what he has been saying for over two months.
Personally I could care less about rick and chris. I would have lost money with there calls these past two months. Look at the reviews Gary gets. Most of your guest post on gary or docs segment.
Because most of us are arguing with him Glen!
lol Bird how did I know you would say that.
Because I am predictable?……as an aside, I happen to think Gary is a very bright guy. Some of his calls this year were excellent. We perhaps mostly disagree on semantics and the use of words.
BINGO!!
Except deflation will be good for gold based on Fed response
I agree with that Dan.
NO DOUBT ABOUT IT _ THE FEDS WILL GET THE PRINTING PRESSES WORKING OVERTIME – AGAIN!
I think Gary has it spot on w. his inflation/deflation explanation, especially when he refers to higher input cost via higher commodities prices the factor that will topple the economy.
IMHO, the “deflation-scare” is just a convenient smoke screen that justify measures put in place to save/protect/benefit the banking system and several large institutions (some of which likely the owners of the Federal Reserve).
When prices go up at the pump, in the food basket, on the utility bills, in restaurants, for school tuitions (etc)… it seems to me that talking about deflation WITHOUT acknowledging rising prices in many other areas more relevant to the “average” man on the street is a POLITICAL act.
What I mean is that not acknowledging reality (or tweaking methodologies to calculate some statistics) in order to take opposite measures that benefit only a few is a political act, IMHO (as resources are allocated to a certain group within the population instead of measures being taken for the good of the general public).
Just my 2cts
Regards to all, and thank you All & Cory for your daily interviews.
LPG
Thanks fro your comment LPG. I think we have some of the best guests. We are glad you enjoy them as well.
Agree. Your guests are great lately. Including Gary.
Nice job to Rick, Gary and Chris for their takes on the situation.
Gary I see your point I that the fed reserve just continues to print and they inject funds I to the market far beyond the QE numbers so can continue to do so. Obviously the debt level to the market doesn’t matter until it does. Japan is past the point of no return and we are hitting the brakes but if The Fed sees things spiral out of control like QE 1 and 2 they will likely start the machine
The real ones in denial are the fed and those who support their lack of action and language. Inflation is coming hard and fast, we have near negative 2% GDP to start the year with a likely poor print to follow next month coupled with likely weekend I g from financials & builders . This party won’t last forever but the band will play on until the chandelier falls and then everyone will run for the exits.
I tend the agree with Rick that the market won’t Need a spike before crashing but that would be the clear sign. He did predict 17200 a month or so ago.
I think Rick and Gary might need have a beer and relax. Buy two for Birdman
Thanks guys
It was a great debate overall. We will continue to touch back on this topic with everyone.
The US and UK are printing printing printing like Japan has done – Japan has done it for some 20 years.
It has done it because it prints it own money and things just stumble along. Seems to me that both the UK and US are simply doing what Japan has done.
You are right Bob. Don’t forget about China doing the same thing. It is the strategy that all countries with strong central banks are employing.
Awesome discussion – thanks to all the participants.
GOLD IS INSURANCE…one exception…you ARE GOING to need it…..uh, the fire is AT THE DOOR!!
You are welcome Clark. WE are luck to have such passionate intelligent people on our show.
We are one bad bond auction away from chaos.
I was out today so had to catch the replay.
Excellent,excellent interview excellent thread. Kudoos all around. One of, if not the best ever.
Ill add that Richards has been talking deflation inflation forces are opposing each other for some time, might have said be prepared for both. Gold good for either.
Gold is still doing dead cat bounces and nothing else. It may take years to start the next bull market or it could happen sooner if gold crashes down to about 1000. The dollar is still holding up and will likely show strength over the medium to long term. The stock market could keep topping for years.
Cory i think this is one of the most important discussions / debates i’ve heard on this site so far! would be VERY helpfull to have a weekend show on this same topic ( inflation / deflation) and especially clarifying some definitons (i.e. historical definition of inflation / deflation as nothing more than an increase / decrease of the supply of money VS now incorporating money velocity, asset values etc into the definition)… great stuff!!
I agree. But we might need more barbed wire and electric fences to keep the guests apart since they are getting kind of emotional on the topic.
Old Yellar……
Just loves trouble….
Thats all you need to know and play your hand accordingly.
AND SLEEP LIKE A BABY……tomorrow is going to be another
beautiful day in gold land. “don’t kill the messenger”
I’M HAVIN WAY TOO MUCH FUN. Thank you and sleep well.
Don’t forget about the dollar.
Thats my new…WHIPPIN BOY
Its gettin ….WOOPED !!!!!!! Anyway, you all sleep well and enjoy gold land because I know…
I WILL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! always hittin hard and heavy as the USDX goes…..POOF ! sweet dreams
Maybe Yellen is hoping that speculators will be willing to pay more for money if stock prices keep on climbing, now that Wall Street is in a drunken stupor turn on the booze tap and then increase the lending rate very slowly to see if the party will go on. Pass the beer nuts Ben, they will soon see us as the patron saints of prosperity.
Got to love the smell of shorts being squeezed in the morning.
Guess you got to throw one of the little fish back once in awhile. Can’t catch a big one everyday. Say, you trying to hurt my feelings or something?
Nothing personal. It is all manipulation and illusion anyway.
True that. Even I agree these days. Just part of life in the New World Order I guess.
You see this article from Long/Short by the way? Maybe I have been a bear so long I can’t get all bull-tard and jiggy anymore. If we do get a big breakout in metals I will eat my words though so guess I will give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for the next while. Can’t be too proud in such matters. Only the direction counts. If she goes up I am getting onboard.
Consider Purchasing Metals – Short Side of Long
http://shortsideoflong.com/2014/06/consider-purchasing-metals/
And hey….who knows but maybe it will improve my foul mood. As an aside I think I am getting long crude tomorrow. My gut is telling me the missiles could fly in Iraq this weekend. Who’s missiles I do not know but ISIS claims they have taken that big oil terminal and the shit is looking like it will soon hit the fan.
The oil will keep flowing no matter how many of each other the two sides kill. Oil is what finances the adventurism.
The fix is in, maybe?
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has shortlisted seven companies out of 10 who had expressed an interest in providing a new silver price mechanism from August 15.
he short list comprises Autilla Ltd (Cinnober Financial Technology of Sweden), Bloomberg, CME Group (Thomson Reuters), ETF Securities, ICE, LME and Platt.
Why don’t they all do it together just to keep it clean?
Guess I hit the return key instead of Cap key……. he should be The
This is a TRAP the same way the approach to just under $1400 was back in mid-March. Look out below.
That has been my assessment as well in recent days, MAD. I am going to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt here though because the technical picture is actually looking more positive. Those on the long side of the trade are starting to make better arguments but in the back of my mind the negativity weighing on gold still carries more sway. I mean to say that sentiment is still quite poor so it is hard to imagine any big moonshots. We shall just play it by ear.
There will not be moonshots at this point in time, in my opinion.
It will need a bond collapse to produce those.
This whole rally from the $1240 low back in early June has been a “b”-wave. “b”-waves are classic “trap” waves, and this one is living up to its expectations. No momentum here, no “impulse” wave here, running right up to just under a “big fig”, $1300 for gold, and… best of all… silver peeking its head OVER $20 which will get the silver bulls lathered into a frenzy, just in time for The Last Haircut.
Just remembered that jj was short at 1240. Good luck for him.
If I were the FED and all is lost already, I would be throwing money at the private sector and hoping like hell that someone out there can use the easy money to develop cheap energy that can be produced locally.
The opening of natural gas field fracking was the main reason that inflation was curbed.
Yes, I think the near future is mostly about energy development. That is why opposition to the oil sands in Alberta and new pipelines is financed by foreigners. As an aside, I think the oil sands deserve to be criticized to force the developers to clean up their acts.
In a long run, developing oil sands benefits Alberta. It is nature which pollutes Alberta soil by spilling billions of barrels of oil on the ground. As long as we force the oil/gas companies to clean up the operation, we will get a better environment.
A native leader in BC declared war on the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline; I wonder if he thought of where the Canadian Federal Government money in the billions for natives comes from before he probably took foreign money to pay his lawyers and protestors.
The federal money doesn’t come from Ontario’s economy that is for sure.
I have to wonder what people think when they talk about deflation.
Gas prices where I live in Canada have gone up over 60% in the last five years.
Cigarettes have gone up the same amount.
Booze does not go down.
Food does not go down. All are up y/o/y/o/y.
Real estate has doubled here in the same time frame.
Ferry fares continuously go up. Taxes are up.
Minimum wage was just doubled in Washington state as normal people can not survive on what is reality.
Sure,if you want a camera or tv the prices are competitive but those are one-off items and not indicative of every day spending.
The average person is not wealthy and they are struggling to survive.
The banks and wealthy are doing fine but the exponential money growth has been funneled to them.
Exactly. Gary is 100% correct. Whether we look at the Austrian definition (expanding money supply) or the Keynesian definition (rising general price level), there is inflation, not deflation.
It’s funny to me that deflationists are comfortable holding beliefs (propaganda) that Yellen and CNBC (and delusional trolls) would like them to.
Crazy earthlings!
As Rick often says, you will recognize deflation by its chief symptom which is excessive debt. No doubt the cost of chicken and milk will look pretty tame once that housing bubble over on the Island or in Vancouver finally bursts. Don’t you just wonder what a retracement to the mean will look like over there as the birds come home to roost and the price bubble pops? I suspect it will all come apart in step with Hong Kong as the correlation between the two regions was at one time quite high.
I live on an island next to the big island,Bird.
Real estate prices have been negative for a few years now and folks are trying to sell their homes 20-30% below their assessments.
The average person has to live,not speculate on what their neighbours will recieve for their home if they ever manage to sell it.
Over 65% of people in Vancouver do not own their homes.The vast majority that own will be mortgaged to the teeth.
75% of British Columbians do not live in either Vancouver or Victoria so the prices of goods inflating y/o/y/o/y hurt the majority and not the minority that are wealthy.
The Islands eh? I once lived on Galiano. So many years back the memory of the place is pretty dim now. Great place and the land was dirt cheap then. Not so anymore I hear. It was the ferries that finally drove me nuts. Too much waiting. Although I don’t check on it anymore I recall that housing prices were pretty bubbly there and up coast in Parksville and pretty much everywhere in the Victoria region too. You saying they are down as much as 30% in those areas nowaday?
The people that lived on Galliano in those days were the granola crowd, peace, love, and groovy with quite a few reefers thrown in. Somehow either you broke the mold or you went back to your parents roots.
You were there too? Very Groovy times, man. We lived in a commune at the North End. Pebble Beach was the name, I think. Great fishing. Then they tore it all down and kicked everyone’s arses out. Those were the days!
It’s a small world,after all!!
Get out! You were there too? It is a park now. Not sure what its called though.
Galiano is a few doors away. Must have good memories,Bird.
Here the land stopped selling a couple of years ago and now repossessed land and homes sales are being kept off the realtors lists.
10 acres with a small lake and ocean views for 250k. Lots being raffled off for 35k.
Ferry fares are making it difficult for folks to work on ‘the’ island or mainland now.
Many of the younger folks left one and two decades ago for the Northern Gulf Islands and this island relies on retirement income.
Many of the tradesmen have up and left for Alberta a year and more ago.
The market on this Gulf Island has been soft for two years now and now the repo’s and court sales are mounting.Land /houses up for sale at 20-30% below assessed values.
Five years ago it was nothing but up and now it appears to be going in the other direction after a few years of little to no selling activity.
Wow! Great prices. I really want to ask which Island but I don’t want to pry. Can’t be Saltspring though. I know that one is still pricey as hell. Can’t be Gabriola because that is not really next door to the Southern chain. How about I just guess you refer to Pender and leave it at that. I lived there once too. Fantastic place to make a home but tough to make a living for so many. Not that I would go back anyway. Africa has gotten under my skin. Life is so much better here there are not words to express it.
Sorry-$9.32-$15 so not a double in Washington state but is 100%+higher than the national rate of $7.25 :
Seattle will raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour over the coming years under a deal brokered by Mayor Ed Murray and blessed by labor and business groups alike, city leaders announced Thursday afternoon.
The new pay floor will phase in at different speeds for businesses of different sizes, but all employers will have to meet the $15 minimum wage by the end of the decade. Businesses with more than 500 employees nationwide will have a three-year phase-in period, while smaller employers get five years to ratchet up their payscales.
After reaching $15 an hour, the city’s minimum wage will automatically climb to match the rate of inflation.
Bird,there is Thetis, Gabriola and Saturna,amongst other smaller southern Gulf Islands but close enough.
I don’t know why one would buy an overpriced condo in Victoria or Vancouver when one could have a home with ocean views or ten acres of land.
Saltspring prices are coming down but it is the priciest,as you say.
Interested in Africa but never made it. Just rented another home on Bali for the gf and our rescued animals.New 2 bedroom home within a gated and guarded community less than 20 minutes outside the capital for $1700.00 per year.
Well,Bird,you got my vote.Not many can leave the Wet Coast and make it in Africa.Cheers to you.
It would be nice if Gary would shut his mouth and let Rick have his turn to speak like Rick left Gary have his.
Annoyed me too. I wanted to hear Ricks rebuttal but he kept getting cut off.
Steve Leasman.(cnbc)…….must have gotten some religion………