Big Al talks gold and silver with James Turk
James Turk sees no resistance as Silver nears uncharted territory.
Big Al chats with Free Gold Money Report’s James Turk about Gold and Silver’s slow day. Mr. Turk reveals that he sees no resistance after Silver breaks through the $50 barrier.
James Turk is founder and chairman of GoldMoney, which provides a convenient and economical way to buy and sell gold, silver and platinum online using the digital gold currency for which he was awarded four US patents. He began publishing the Freemarket Gold & Money Report in March 1987 as a subscription-based investment newsletter focusing primarily on precious metals and national currencies. In August 2009, the newsletter completed a total transformation to become a free, web-based commentary.
To learn more, visit:
http://www.fgmr.com
Yup, me too.
Big Al
Top marks for Trader Rog again!
Roger Wiegand intuitive and technical spot on again. 2011-04-26
http://1000gold.blogspot.com/2011/04/roger-wiegand-intuitive-and-technical.html
I was amazed that Roger said on your show and on Jay Taylor’s show that silver may go down $5+ afer reaching the $48-51 level. It gets to $49.86 and then drops $5 in a single day! Congrats to Roger on a fantastic call – AGAIN!
I am new to the precious metals market. What kind of position should one consider at this time, miners, etf’s or physical holdings?
Miners, both senior producers and junior explorers offer a better value at this time. Physical bullion is at the opposite end of the risk curve, and should be in every portfolio.
I would buy both. If I had to choose one or the other, I would opt for the infinitely safer, insurance qualities of bullion.
Hi Mike,
Matthew makes some good points.
My suggestion is that you find a financial adviser who not only knows this market really well but is also well versed in the conventional markets. You want to work with someone who has a view of the entire picture.
I know so many people who were considered experts in the area of hard assets back in the late 70’s and early 80’s who believed in only this particular area of investment. Many of them eventually went broke. Very sad but true. They did not believe in diversification. They were convinced that anyone who did not believe what they did were nuts.
Well, who turned out to be nuts?
I discussed our investment strategy a week or so ago in this blog. Notice that it consists of hard assets, a bit of real estate and a certain amount of capital in the conventional market.
I am lucky in that I get to “pick the brains” of the experts in both the financial and political communities. I have also been in this business for a long time and, hopefully, I have learned to separate the wheat from the chaff. That makes it somewhat easier.
Here is what I would do: listen to shows like this, read at least a half a dozen financial newsletters, find a competent and successful investment adviser and keep your wits about you by always looking at the total picture.
Want suggestions on all the above? Let me know.
Big Al
Greetings all,
I certainly agree with James Turk. He makes so much sense and is always reasoned, calm, and calculated, and I agree with you, Matthew, a gentleman and scholar he is indeed.
Kitco writer, Warren Bevan said today in his column, “Gold only rose 1.22% for the week but we did see it surpass and more importantly close the week above $1,500. It’s going to continue higher now until it doesn’t. Generally round numbers pose resistance and $1,500 is a major round number.” As James Turk says, any higher, round number, resistance points don’t mean much anymore. The past milemarkers have been obliterated, and the sky’s the limit, pretty much. Big Al, agreed as well with you your comment, “it’s the perfect storm”. The round number psychological barriers/resistance points are not reliable anymore. The dynamics are all different this time around. The pressure to the upside is being generated by the huge Asian demand. They want out of dollars and are steadily, and consistantly converting our worthless paper into the pretty metals. We should all do the same. Great interview. Thanks much.
Dan
I do worry though that last week silver moved 6 times as fast as gold on the way up in percentage terms. I noticed that silver corrected £3 in half a day on Monday and that was aboout 6x as much on the downside in % terms. Maybe that is healthy. Something has definitely happened in silver since last August. It has just traded very differently. I think it has only just really started to go parabolic a few weeks ago so maybe we are not at the end yet. However, we could still get an interim top and a large correction soon because it’s been a huge move. These things always seem to come quite suddenly.
Thinking back to 2007-2008 when gold passed its old 1980 high at $850, there was not much trouble getting through $850. There was a little corerection at 900 then straight on to $1030. Then the credit crunch crushed gold and especially silver for a while but they both came back within a year or so.
So maybe $50 is not such a big barrier for silver, like $850 was not such a big deal for gold. Though $50 is more of a ’round’ number so it might have more significance, like $1000 gold did.
I also wonder is this silver trading has a bit of parallel with palladium in 2000-2001 where there was a supply squeeze. Palladium went above platinum, though it is normally aboout 1/3 to 1/2 the price of Pt. And that was in a commodities bear market! Also like rhodium more recently going to $10000.
I just have difficulty seeing gold going up if silver takes a big correction – and conversely how can silver stop increasing while gold is increasing. If gold goes to $1800 then silver seems likely to go to $70+ at this rate. Just an opinion. It would be disappointing if silver stopped rising at $50 this year and gold topped out at $1525 or whatever, a bit of a damp squib.
I agree with Dan. My feelings for the past 3 y6ears has been that we are in a new paradyne and cannot rely on past indicators to determine when and how the market in precious metals will move to the upside. The old paradyne talking heads analyze and predict based upon past markets that don ‘t really exsit in the form previously known. Being a bull is a good thing.
Larry
Reverse Inquiry Ampex will Buy Your Silver Eagles Any Quanity $3 over Spot!
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/2011/04/reverse-inquiry-ampex-will-buy-your.html
Thanks Al and JIM,,great guest with positive insight.
Turk…
Gotta love him.
Thanks Big Al.
Anyone see angry Bob’s editorial?
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty042511.html
It’s funny, the longer he’s wrong the angrier he gets.
It’s interesting how he likes to lump all silver bulls together as if we aren’t as varied as the general population. I guess he must dictate what the argument IS before he can develop one of his ego-driven counter arguments.
He did point out that he was dead wrong on both price and time, but left out that he was also wrong about the next $15 move being to the down side. He made that call with such certainty, I can see why he left it out.
I commented here under the March 5 show that there was a 51% chance the next $15 move would be to the upside; as of this morning, it was. I said tops don’t look like this.
Today, Bob went on about how parabolas always end badly. To this, I say: Thanks for pointing out the obvious Bob! Yes, that is the likelihood, but not a certainty when dealing with fake money as the denominator. Which brings up price. Bob says: “How rational is $46 silver? Not very.” You see, only Bob almighty knows the right price for silver. Next, he wheels out every “expert’s” favorite line “it’s different this time”. This is a favorite because, statistically, all anyone ever has to say in response is “it’s never different this time” and they are likely to be right. It’s a low risk bet for the self anointed guru. Well sorry Bob, this time is already different. And you missed it. All you have to do is pull up the weekly chart for each big run so far. They ended in March ’04, May ’06, and March ’08, respectively. Now look at the MACD and note that despite a huge run of more than 50% in 2010, when it rolled and made a bear cross, it reversed quickly and launched a new leg (MUCH) higher. This has not happened before. It was bewildering even to many REAL experts, never mind guys like Bob Hoye who have been clueless for years. At least Hoye, unlike Moriarity, returns to his likable, understated demeanor after a big helping of crow with a side of humble pie.
The “Bobs” problem is obviously twofold. One, neither respects the power and will of the planners. And two, both use the dollar as the numeraire. Unlike natgas, copper, or wheat, the dollar is NOT the same thing from one day to the next. Forty years ago it was 1/20th of 1 oz of gold. Today, it’s approaching the value of a tree leaf. If the Fed wants to destroy it completely, they can. There is no limit, physically, politically, or otherwise to the amount of dollars the Fed can create.
A parabola against government sh**paper does not have to end in a crash. See the ruble chart from the ’90’s.
I believe the risk in silver now is due to it’s huge out performance of other appealing assets. Profits taken should be deployed into them. Just my opinion.
Given the current market action, we may finally get a correction. I doubt it will be like the last three big ones, but if it is, no Bob, I won’t sell.
My question is, can anyone teach an old Bob new tricks?
Mattew,
Yes I saw Bob’s comment,,,he seems to think silver is headed for a fall.
I think I am going to stick with James Sinclair’s thinking for awhile.
By the way,,, what are the other assets you would deploy your money in
if you sold your silver,(right here)?
thanks
Jerry
Hi Jerry,
I am of the opinion that silver still has a very long way to go, so I have only sold a very modest amount. Because I bought more when the gold-silver ratio spiked to the 80 area, I have been locking in profit by trading for gold (gold-silver ratio at my last trade was 31.4).
Also appealing are less correlated assets like the Roger’s Raw Materials Fund (RJA), and natural gas (UNG), or even the ProFunds UltraShort Russell 2000 Fund (TWM). Although I have owned all three, I do not currently have any position long or short. If one is inclined to go short, I think TWM is appealing because the Russell 2000 consists of U.S. small caps (as opposed to well diversified large caps with global market share). Small caps do well in an inflationary environment fueled by credit expansion and REAL economic growth, BUT in a hyperinflationary (papered-over deflation) environment in which REAL capital availability is contracting and the economy is collapsing, small caps are at a decided disadvantage.
I am still accumulating juniors in the small to tiny class. I also recently purchased warrants (ADM.WT) on a company called Andina Minerals. These warrants are currently trading at one tenth that of the share price and there’s fewer than 1/8th as many issued and outstanding. They make sense to me because I am very bullish on gold. The leverage is tremendous, but they expire in June of 2012. I am NOT recommending them to you or anyone.
I believe the next four years will be nothing like the last four. Silver’s performance is not only what I’ve expected, it’s also confirming my “risk on” outlook. The period from the summer of ’06 to the summer of ’10, was a “risk off” period. The risk for investors is to allow our expectations from one cycle to spill into the next. Our outlook becomes psychologically entrenched which causes us to be fearful when we shouldn’t be and bold when we shouldn’t be. Right now, we are beginning the second cyclical bull market within the larger secular bull market in the monetary metals.
The biggest gains are coming soon for bullion; followed by monstrous gains for the juniors. As the Dow-gold ratio collapses below 5, volatility is sure to spike as the clueless panic into gold while the rest of us begin our exit. Some believe the ratio will reach 2oz/dow, others say .25oz/dow. So you don’t want to sell too much as 5 and 4 are reached.
Please remember that this unnecessarily long response is just one of many, many opinions out there.
Matthew
Matthew,
Thanks for you follow up….
Sounds like you are not excited about selling your silver,
nor am I … I think we are in the next phase of the ELLIOT WAVE THEORY,
about C wave. Do you follow the EWT? and if so , what do you think?
Jerry
Jerry,
I do not follow EWT.
As I have mentioned previously here, silver is still the only commodity that is trading below it’s 1980 high. Despite short term profit taking, I will no doubt be buying again as it’s valuation relative to other parts of my portfolio warrant. For example, I recently had a company called Fronteer Gold get taken over. I used the proceeds for more physical gold and silver, and averaged the rest into some juniors. At $29.50, I debated about that purchase, but now that price would be a bargain!
Matthew
Interesting comments, Matthew.
I have known Bob for a long time. He is very opinionated, but still an intersting guy.
Notice that none of my stuff is on his site. We had a disagreement a while back.
Best,
Big Al
Hi Al,
You know, I actually go to Bob’s site quite a bit.
I have no issue with Bob other than his attitude. Same with Bob Hoye. Moriarity is angry at those who oppose him; Hoye is dismissive and condescending. What’s the point? It’s just investing.
Oh well, not everyone can be as easy going as Big Al. I guess that’s why some of us tend to loiter here!
Thanks for the site,
Matthew
Al,
Bob,would do well to keep you as a friend, if wants to promote some of
the miners, he likes..
Some day the miners are going to take off, and it will be important to know
which one’s they are…because this is new territory for most investor who
have come into the market within the last 5 years., even if they have been
bullion owner for a long time.
Thanks, Great guest and insight into the metals. regards
Great interview… interesting comments! This site gets better all the time!
Many thanks to Al, Rog and all participating!
–Lynn
MY PREDICTION FOR MAY:
Just for fun, I am going to make a prediction. I predict that the powers that be are going to use their HAARP technology to create an enormous “natural” disaster (ie. earthquake) in the United States. This will create the perfect cover for them — the banksters will be off the hook for all of their looting since the world will look on and blame the collapsing economy on “Mother Nature” – not HAARP.
You heard it here first!!!
NOTE: That was meant to be tongue and cheek — so please do not mistake my comment as being a sincere conviction on my part.
They are going to use their HAARP technology at the precise frequency needed to melt all the silver coins in the USA and turn them into a little pool of liquid.
Tee Hee – nice (grab your swimming trunks).
Hello Mike at MD:
I’m not an expert, but I am been deeply immersed in the precious metals arena. I spend between 2-3 hours a day, reading, listening, and digesting all the pertinent information I can gather on the PMs. That’s just me. You may not have that much time.
My journey started about 3 years ago, and I just waded in with no clear direction or plan. But as I went along, things got more clear, and you will learn and grow as well. There is a tremendous amount of info to sift through, and it will seem confusing and maybe overwhelming at first, but don’t despair or get discouraged. Hang in here with Big Al and Roger. This is my first stop of the day!! Listen to everything they say. Read the blogs. Quite a few of our bloggers are very knowledgeable. Definately, listen to the weekend show. Big Al has expert guests on who come at investments and economics from many different angles. This will help you develop your “big picture”.
Just my opinion, but I would stay away from ETFs. No guarantee there is any real asset backing them up.
Invest first in the hard assets, ie. gold and silver bullion coins or rounds. I try to buy local first from private sellers, auctions, and dealers. (No paper trail)
If you want you can buy online. I use Gainesville Coin, Kitco and Bullion direct, and there are other reputable online dearlers too.
I wouldn’t try to buy into the junior mining companies without some professional help. It’s really tricky. Don’t go it alone until you are more knowledgeable and comfortable in this market. This should help you get started.
As far as gaining knowledge, some other good sites are Kingworldnews.com where you can get excellent market analysis from some of the best minds in the investment world and check out Jay Taylor’s mining stocks. He has a weekly radio program on Tuesdays and is also an analyst.
Don’t give up. Be dilligent. Go slow. You’ll be amazed how quickly you’ll begin to put things into perspective. Best to you.
Dan
Dan,
This is like going to college…if you put your time and study ,you will be
rewarded.{this is better that going to college}The more time you spend
the greater the reward.
Hi Jerry,
You’re right. Better than college, and free. I’ve learned more in the last 3 years about how the financial and investment world really works, than in the previous 25 years of playing by the rules set by the big boyz. “The Truth does set you free” in more ways than one.
Also, enjoyed you and Matthew’s comments re. silver. Good stuff.
Larry, thanks for your comments too.
Dan
Dan,
thanks for the reply, and thank you
Jerry
James Turk is a class act. A true gentleman AND scholar.
If we’re talking important resistance, I agree, there is none. My $64 target is a short term consideration that will mean much less if today’s corrective action continues. If we shoot higher tomorrow, however, I still think we might see a little deeper retracement even if for purely technical reasons.
I am as bullish as Mr. Turk and positioned accordingly.