Gary continues to see a weakness in the dollar
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Gary continues to see a weakness in the US dollar and strength coming down the road for the precious metals.
Stay the course BUY GOLD !
Oh shut up Franky. Your English skills tell me you are this sites daily fraud.
Fraud? That’s just a bit little dramatic, don’t you think?
Totally!! What a goon…
franky grab a brain…..Its people like yourself is why so many get screwed. Go buy your gold and hide in the corner..
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/29/new-world-order-2/
ha ha Dillion ! ONE GOLD YOU 100 % RONG ! Buy Sam bear stearns OK ! YOU 100 % RONG !
Witte all do respect ok ( Dillon) !
Common man BUY BUY BUY BUY that’s your investment advice..?
aaaaa common MAN NO BUY GOLD OK STOP !
DILLON BUYING GOLD IS BILDING ONLY MONNY YOU FEEL TO KEEP NO NEED ! long time ! you feel note no BUY ok DILLON !
What do I think Al? …………..Gary is a moron. That is what I think, Al.
No problem bird man happy christmas !
What’s in your sippy cup today, Bird?
Any thoughts Matthew as we approach 2014? I think the new bull market commences when Yellen screams; “I GIVE!” She will INCREASE QE around the middle of the year which initiates a fire under the PM’s again. No or yes? I would like your comments on this. OK? Thanks!
Hi Mark, I think the miners will do extremely well in 2014. At a minimum, I think gold will test the $1550 area in ’14 and $1900 by Q2 ’15. However, the potential obviously exists (at least to me) for gold to do far better. Silver will outperform gold.
I don’t believe that Yellen has to reverse course on tapering in order for gold to do very well. Either way, I think there will be plenty of capital exiting bonds AND stocks in ’14 and looking for “safer” valuations. I put quotes around safer because, to contrarians/smart money, valuation is the biggest contributing factor to safety. Obviously, miners, and even the metals, are not viewed as safe by most investors.
I think it is interesting that gold found support recently precisely at the rising 377 week moving average at $1186, and that the 89 month moving average is currently approaching $1177. Both, 377 and 89 are Fibonacci numbers. $1188 is also 61.8% of $1923.
EXCELLENT ..Matthew….also gold has had higher lows if this last low holds.
Looking at the french curve.
Thanks for the great analysis. Much appreciated !
You’re welcome, HH. It’s just one more opinion.
Sippy cup. Yeah, I remember Bird saying he quit drinking because it made him “hostile”. Bird is a savvy guy with great insight. Really enjoy his feedback..
Gary Goof too.
Said that eons ago. People are trying to hang on to a living forecasting but there is no real forecast. Only short term guessing. That gets expensive.
Stay inmovfatire, San Diego, yeah boy!
[…] […]
I think a 30Dec2013 close below $1200 would be very (VERY) bad; just mass psychology, mind you, but still very bad.
However, if $1200 holds for today, I think we have put in the obligatory “Bad Year” for the continuing gold/silver bull market. January 2014 could then be the beginning of a slow increase in the gold/silver, over the next couple years, as stagflation strengthens (I’m old enough to remember the 1970s)
Going forward, I am a silver bug (I still have gold, of course); I am hoping for a 5-10% increase in the value of silver year-over-year from now until maybe 2016-2017; in fact, I have averaged in on PSLV over the past couple weeks in my ROTH and will be accumulating physical in the next couple months.
Although I have bought and sold the miners (primarily AXU and BRD) I think that I am just too risk-averse (at my age) to pile into the mining companies again. I like to sleep at night.
Happy New Year to all ! ! !
Brian
Ya but when you buy the miners this cheap.
I WOULD SLEEP EVEN BETTER being out I would not sleep at all.
As always – Many THANKS…Matthew.
[…] are wanting to take gold down again. I don't know why "they" can't, apparently "they" have a lot of power, maybe […]
so now we need a flat to strong $USD for stocks to go up? what happened to last years ‘stocks need a weak $USD to go up’?
The dollar index exists to confuse. The dollar went up with stocks in the late ’90s; it went down with stocks in ’02; it went up in ’08 as stocks crashed, then it went down again as stocks rallied. So it is correlated to stocks about half the time.
The USDX only measures relative value, not actual (real) value.
As a friend just pointed out to me, Gary already missed an opportunity of a lifetime with the bear market bottom in March of 2009. He kept calling for the bear market to resume and then at least retest the March low. More recently, he called for 2012 to be one of the worst years in stock market history….and the bear to resume, but that didn’t happen…and 2013 (a year later) turned out to be one of the BEST years in stock market history. Now he is calling for a bear market yet again. While I actually would not mind one iota if he finally is correct this time about a bear happening, I still don’t know if there’s any realistic chance of a 2008-style bear. As my friend also pointed out, does Gary really/honestly think “they” will let another 2008-style bear happen any time soon…this seems kind of far fetched. Although there is no way in hell I’m going long the S&P up here at 1840. I don’t think a 2008-style bear is all that likely any time soon.
Also, the “big money” in my opinion stays away from going long crappy ETFs like NUGT. Just sayin’
How many times ……..YA GONNA CHANGE YOUR NAME
Been here about 2 weeks and this a going on 3 name changes
HA…..IN A FEW MONTHS YOUR GONNA GO THROUGH 50 NAMES.
UNBELIEVABLE ….
Believe what you want. Are you actually claiming that anything I’ve said is wrong….if so please point out where I am mistaken.
Cold: Its amazing how little people know. 2008 was started by a housing bubble and a debt storm…Now we are in De-levearge mode…Another 2008 is most unlikely….
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/29/collapsing-the-economy-makes-no-sense/
The actual fact is that I called the bottom in the stock market one day after it bottomed. I was looking for another move down or a retest by July of 2009 but once the market continued to rally that came off the table.
I don’t think the next bear will be like the last one. It is more likely to be a slow grind lower with many counter trend moves. more like the 2000-2002 bear.
Gary your monthly forecasts that you seem to be extremely confident about appear to change quite dramatically on a daily basis.
What tea leaves are you looking at?
First of all the $ is not unravelling, it is 80 on the index, in the same range it has been for months now.
Second gold is not holding $1200 it is tanking today
Third the $ would be a goner except for the fact that all other central banks are debasing their currencies as well
Your analysis is sketchy at best
There will be a YEN crisis loooooooong before a dollar crisis, as per Kong – yes the nemisis Forex Kong.
Gary’s been absolutley taken out to the wood shed, still hanging on…..still trying to hang on until gold makes it’s turn.
As Kong suggested even today…….a “single celled animal” can suggest buying gold.
So far my long term expectations are playing out pretty much as expected.
I think the dollar is in trouble. I think by next fall we will have at least a semi crisis in the dollar.
I think once it’s obvious the dollar is in trouble liquidity will start to flow out of stocks and bonds and into commodities. This is already starting to play out in oil and the CRB.
It’s going to take several more weeks before we know whether the stock market is going to follow the dollar down. My expectation was that it would continue to rally into earnings season and then run into trouble. However if the dollar really starts to fall out of bed here the market may not make it to earnings season before it gets in trouble.
I think gold is on the verge of putting in a bear market bottom. The only question is whether the manipulation would succeed in breaking the June lows. I’ve been cautiously optimistic that they would hold. After today though I have to think they have the metals set up for the premarket attack tomorrow or Thursday so I’m going to continue to stay in cash for now.
If we do see another attack and 1179 breaks, then I will try to pick another bottom once gold gets to 1030 or once it forms a higher high. Which ever comes first.
manipulation, schmanipulation
sure, ‘they’ schmanipulated gold down to the tune of over $600 .. sure sure sure ..’they’ knocked 33% off the value of gold … so name some names : who are the manipulators?
It’s really about debt and short term interest rates. Zirp means your dollar is worth zero interest. Real rate of inflation is 6-10% depending on what you buy. Regardless of inflation/deflation debate-gold always excels in negative real rate/high debt situations….
I think it is a result of the currency wars that the strongest stock market get the strongest currency.
$USD down nearly 0.50% & metals down 1.5 – 2.5% … so what happened to the correlation btw the $USD & the metals?
Get out your stone tablet and chisel. The general index are NOT in a bubble.
We need a correction but they are going higher. PE is not cheap but not overprice at 15 and that’s not a bubble….
It seem like everyone or near everyone here wants the DOW to crash and Gold to take off….Not likely…
You got that right Mr. Bill. DT
Bill,
The stock market PE is 26. Which is historically more expensive than almost all bull markets in history other than the 29 bubble and the 2000 bubble.
Forward earnings on S&P is just under 15..
boll !
This will will end well…
The problem, Dillon, is that at turning points in the economy the forward estimates mean nothing. What were the forward estimates for 2008, in 2007? How did that work out.
John Hussman has done good work to show how stretched profit margins are and they move in cycles — as they regress to the mean, earnings are going to collapse.
Partly true Eric! Things arnt great that’s for sure but the corporations are in better shape than the economy. Back in 2008 my guy predicted the collapse and wrote a detailed book on in in 2006. There is No sign of serious trouble as of yet. Maybe a recession could show but monitoring it weekly. Also we’ve been long stocks since 2009 folrom the exact bottom and that’s not something to many can brag. We’ve taken some money off but there’s no reasons
To sell. It’s called a wall of worry for a reasons. Everyone worried and that just the way it needs to be. The bottom callers are out in force for gold “2014 is the turn for gold!!!”that is a concern too…there are no bulls left at a true bottom.
That’s what I got Dillon…Looking into all projections now.
Who’s calling for a bottom? Armstrong, Rogers, Edelson, Radomski, Rambus, Bevan, Aden, Ackerman, Savage, Kaye, all seem to expect $1,000 gold or lower. And I know I left out many others.
Stocks do not have to crash and gold does not have to make new highs for the miners to dramatically outperform in 2014.
The forward PE is useless compared to the Shiller PE.
http://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php
Gary,
Its like CPI I guess. My source provides me with a 15.
He also bought 2009 and bailed on gold $1700plus. Hes BLOWN EVERYONE AWAY I know.
Hes got forward on that. Hes bullish after 4 years but more cautious.
The regular PE for the S&P 500 is 19.53. The Shiller PE for the S&P 500 is 26 —55.8% above the historical mean.
15 is the forward PE for the Dow.
GS you have no clue.
You are flying by the seat of your pants winging it everyday depending on which way the wind blows
I’ve been shootin from the HIP…..couldn’t even …HIT
THE BARN DOOR……whats next …pee running down my leg
There are an awful lot of gold bulls, both commentators and analysts alike, who are desperate to be vindicated for their unwavering belief that gold is going to explode upward and in doing so, will ‘punish’ the FED and other disbelievers. In my 37 years of investing, I have seen this scenario before and it just never works out to the benefit of the desperate.
I confess that I have no clue where gold will be next year or the year after that but I have faith that the desperate will not be rewarded this time any more than they have been in the past.
I guess I would question who the ‘desperate’ really are. Are they truly the people holding gold, in hand (not on margin?) Or are the desperate the ones clinging to the belief that the experiment going on with fiat currency and a never-ending expansion of credit and debt?
Unlike religion, it is an argument that is going to get tested in the real world. So we can watch how it unfolds.
I will say this — if you are holding physical gold and silver for cash and it doesn’t work out, you can always re-monetize it whenever you like. It is a form of savings.
I don’t see it going to zero.
If you holding federal reserve notes or U.S. Treasury Bonds and it doesn’t work out, there is no coming back from it.
The bullish concensus is at record historic lows.
Even here on this forum has been extremely bearish.
Gold going to 1000…..thats not a bull……its bear.
I don’t see any $usd semi-crisis as predicted by Gary for the last several years but I do see a gold/silver semi to full crisis not predicted by Gary for the last several years
oh yeah, i forgot, this is just more manipulation
if so, use the manipulation to your advantage
Gary is DA MAN…..and Al …is DA BIG MAN….CORY…has our backs.
COULD NOT AGREE MORE inflation is baked in DA CAKE !