Head over heals with economic and political discussions
Hour 1:
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Hour 2:
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
- Segments 1 and 2 – Debra Akre and Jeana King are two ladies who are truly making a difference with their organization Tembo Trading Education Project. TTEP was created to provide excellence in education to impoverished children of Kenya who are unable to attend school due to financial issues.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Our round table consists of Marshall Berol of the Encompass Fund; Rick Ackerman of Rick’s Picks; Tim Iacono of Iacono Research; Gary Savage of Smart Money Tracker and Kenton Ralph Toews from Sprott Global.
Hour 2:
- Segment 5 – We continue our round table discussion from Segment 3 and 4. These folks provide some great investing ideas.
- Segments 6, 7 and 8 – Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold and Glen Downs, Chief of Staff for Congressman Walter Jones, join Cory and Big Al in a spirited political discussion.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
al yo sude lissen more to JAY TAYLOR ! buy gold !
I guess I’m an old fossil, and the teachers did not state which level of class is being taught. Here cones the but. I believe it is necessary to have a knowledge base before
being usefully able to think.
I do so believe their message on socialism, History has repeatedly demonstrated that socialism destroys motivation.
Socialism destroys the masses….for the betterment of the elite.
I’m fairly elite
but my head needs healing
and my heels have no feeling!
Hi Irish,
Are you still stacking silver???
Hello KS………….”OH YES”……..I think it’s an addiction….haha
Hi Irish,
Excellent, that you are still buying silver. Maybe under Oboma-care there will be help from this terrible addiction.
Yeah, getting mugged every day is not good for motivation. Irishtony is right.
Read Mises on Socialism. Socialism destroys the ability to calculate since prices are interfered with so capital is misallocated until penury.
North Korea, Cuba, ……
Of course it does, CFS!
By the way, I’ll bet I can define “old fossil better than you can!
WE CANNOT BE FORCED TO TAKE ANY ROAD – A POEM INTERRUPTED
The road you are coerced to take is the road taken by most.
I am unable to read Robert Frost’s words without thinking of the battle between the collective and liberty.
Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,….
No matter what coercion threatens you, you cannot be forced to choose one over the other.
If the collective destroys the wealth of a nation by sleight of hand and/or sabotage what fear can a tax collector deliver? If we are all to be a bunch of Bob Cratchits the state has lost leverage over our empty wallets to keep us in line. There simply is no longer any economic leverage the state can threaten upon a pauper. It has been long said you cannot get blood from a stone and you cannot scare the destitute on April 15th. They have bigger problems than the extortion of a government tax collecting bureaucrat.
It just may be that knowing the economic house of cards was about to make April 15th just another day that the prestidigitators needed a different better card to play. Who cares if they are all broke…let them eat cake……we do not have a guillotine but we can still decide whether they live or die. Let us put the IRS and IPAB on the healthcare front and everyone who wants to breathe will have to stay in line. It is not a coincidence that the scary logo of the IRS will now arrive atop healthcare notices.
When faced with a choice it must be understood even if there does not seem to be a choice that there is a choice. Maybe our best…… and maybe even our last breath….. should be taken on the less traveled road to liberty…
The road to serfdom is bumper to bumper.
The road to liberty has less traffic.
There is no road we are forced to take.
Back to the poem…..
Robert Frost (1874–1963). Mountain Interval. 1920.
1. The Road Not Taken
Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;
Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,
And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.
I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.
Conspiracy has slipped into your language Al, the times they are a changing, I will however not go so far as to call you conspiratoriAL Al but your name does lend itself to such a saying like Pal Al or Pale Ale. DT
By the way I see Bob M’s effect on everyone here as being a positive in our reading and the meaning of conspiracy. DT
In regards to Rick’s comments in segment 4 of gold holding its own.
Just think if The Fed announced instead of a taper that it decided to buy gold.
What if the Fed instead of buying over 1/2 trillion mortgage backed securities in the last year (45 billion/month) that it bought 1/2 trillion dollars worth of physical gold for our country’s once welcoming vaults.
I agree with Rick. Gold has held up well.
My point is that the nominal treading water of gold in the last couple quarters does not truly depict gold’s true performance. When an asset you eye faces headwinds and other assets are enjoying tailwinds and if the that being deterred by the wind holds its own it is really moving faster.
It is the equivalent of a pilot being conscious of the indicated airspeed.
If you are not conscious which way the wind is blowing it can hurt.
A plane can be moving along quite well relative to the ground but it may be doing so in a tailwind. A piper plane could look from the ground to be crawling but if it is faced off in a headwind the indicated air speed could be much higher than it may appear from the ground.
For me the price of gold has an indicated air speed which is measuring the price of gold relative to other commodities.
This is also true when the wind direction changes.
So when the nominal price of gold is off to the races knowing you have a tailwind might allow you to make a better trade.
Maybe Al should ask Bob Moriarity about this off the cuff analogy…I am sure he will have something to say about whatever you do, do not fly low and slow.
Sep 28 Top 45 Lies In Obama’s U.N. Speech AlterNet
I got this from 321 gold, thought it fit in with segment 6,7,8.
Gerald Celente @ kwn has a thing or two add on the same subjects today.
I like to call what is happening in the world and particularly in the US now as being “DIZZY”, when you throw in the derivative’s market it’s easy to see a major panic brewing. Remember in economics, as in physics, the ancient principle applies that the higher they go the harder they fall. DT
I think the system has to crash before enough people will listen to people like Bob Moriarity,Ron Paul,Paul Craig Roberts,Gerald Celente or Catherine Austin Fitts etc.
Jim Rickards is probobly correct, a new system will just be implimented when it does fall apart, the issue is, it will be the same crooks that bring it down that create the next system.
Other than these people should be brought to justice for their murders,tourtures and thefts, I dont like to think these people will build the next system.
Thats why I tend to agree with Max Keiser, hang em. Let God sort them out.
Talk about these leaders of ours talking out of both sides of their mouths, that great follower of the Fed Mark Carney of our Bank of England is doing a Bernanke. No more than a month back and Carney said that of the G 7 and with the possible exception of Italy the U.K.s economy was the worst performing. Now he says ‘we’re probably leading the pack and that no more QE is needed.
(REV) Were all in this together and now you’ve got Mark Carney helping your country I think that’s just WONDERFUL, at least we aren’t the only zombies around. (Ha, Ha) DT
Don’t forget DT Birdman loves Carney!!!
I’ve met him. Have you?
Anyone can be taken in by charm. I’ve met the queen – meant nothing.
Just saying. He’s a good guy.
New Legacy shows there is interest? I dont know about that AL, I have had a few shares jump as much as 80% in a few days, then down they go again.
Return OF money I think trumps return ON money right now.
@ kwn, cmi reports no new buying and Norcini thinks we are still “range trading”.
I like gold too, but I think we are going to need new big buying to change things, maybe it all comes at once tho. Who knows what could be the “swan” that does it, but until then I agree with Gary.
bb, it was Bob’s article that came out on Friday that caused the interest, three trading days from it will be back to it’s old price. DT
I have seen that happen before when Bob writes an article.
Checking liquidity and see it soon enough and a few shares can be had for a “free” ride.
But I am not sure I have seen a share price stay up.
Far as I am concerned we in a big “bare” market until something changes it.
Maybe the kwn guys will turn out be right, any day now I am sure. lol
Kidding aside, I do like Mike Maloneys work. Seems logical to me.
There is a lot of potential there. The bottom line issue, quite frankly, is will the company be able to raise the necessary capital.
Albert is one of the best in the business when it comes to raising money. I have known him for a long time and I have to say he is one of the most tenacious individuals I have ever met.
I will be very interested to see where it is trading towards the end of this week.
Remember I am a shareholder.
Yes Al., TRUTH is 1000 times weirder than fiction.
Now that everyone has within a heartbeat changed position to cosy up to each other by talking ‘peace’, that’s the time to be more vigilant than ever. Given these new circumstances Israel could become the new dog in the manger by not playing the game. For Netanyahu is hell-bent on not buying into the dovish comments coming from Iran’s new President, seeing them as just buying time to lift sanctions while completing his weapons programme. Clearly Netanyahu will have no time for Putin anymore than he does for the ‘goyim’ Obama.
Paranoia has always been Israel’s default position so what’s to say (with the whole world against her) Israel doesn’t go it alone in some way, thereby drawing in the U.S. regardless?
‘Peace, peace where there is no peace’ was the timeless warning of the Old Testament prophets – that time when we need to be more alert than ever.
Apologies Al but I cannot pick up the interviews today except for a very brief clip of Jeanna discussing critical thinking and the problems with rote in schools. Whew! Do I ever agree with her there and I commend her for taking another approach. Huge swaths of the developing nations in Africa are suffering from a cookie-cutter approach to education. This is really about money though. Students just don’t have access to the vast assortment of educational materials that we have in the West. It is not uncommon here for a class to be taught a subject using a textbook written in the 60’s or 70’s (I am talking mostly rural). There will typically be exactly ONE copy of that old book and that is the curriculum for the semester. Everyone learns from it whether it is right or wrong and study is by copying from blackboard notes or teacher comments. Most of these books are rejects from the West to start with. A class might have little more 3 or 4 volumes from an original 24 volume science set for example. I am talking the kind of stuff that they used to give free in supermarkets in the old days and most people never even bothered to read. Our kids chucked them. It is totally inadequate for developing minds of course. But then they take that material and pound it into the kids heads because that’s what they have to work with. A really smart kid can rise above it but it’s not so easy and they have to work damned hard. There is not even a single library where I live for exanple. Books are treasures even if they are mostly all written in a language foreign to students. The kids are amazing though and typically speak mulitple languages with real fluency. That is one area where their minds succeed. Education in general is dismal though and little effort seems to be made in actually teaching people how to work through problems and learn to find solutions for themselves. Jeanna sounds like a terrifiic gal to me and someone with a genuine ambition to change the lives of a few people. I wish her the best because the cards are stacked against her kind of initiiative. What she needs is daunting at first sight. Books, educational materials, funding for nutrition, technology like computers, internet and AV and family services. There is just much more to teaching in a developing country than delivering textbooks (but those textbooks are like gold if they can be acquired and distributed). Hopefully tomorrow I will have a better connection and be able to tune in to the rest. Thanks Al.
Geez Bird, whats the chances of getting in contact with maybe a christian church or muslim temple and organize some encyclopidias and maybe history and science,medical books etc sent to those you know of that need them?
I have never tried that BB. Might be a good idea. I really don’t know how easy it would be too get hold of enough copies of current edtiion texts though. There is a fairly good market for quality used first and second year textbooks in the US and Canada already. What that means in other words is that they would need to be purchased but at what cost I cannot guess. Medical books are a fortune in case you heard often running into the many hundreds of dollars per copy. I had contemplated the idea at one time of trying to arrange a container or two of books just to establish a small library in my area but never really got past the stage of how it might all be organized, stored and funded. A 40 foot container would cost something like 8 to 15 thousand just to ship without consideration for the contents. Then every book needs to be counted and recorded for customs purposes and a value attached. The paperwork alone is a nightmare including considerations for the material being accepted as gift which would exclude it from local import taxes. Then back home you also need to register as a charity to issue tax receipts, comply with local regulations and file a heap of peperwork. On this end a building needs to be rented and staffed etcetera……Honestly…..it is way beyond what I can do. I did meet a doctor here who had come from Greece. He was taxed a dollar apiece on his 5000 book collection even though they were personal property and used (eg: not for resale). The guy was furious as he said he had already paid in full including tax in Greece and why the hell should he have to get taxed twice on his own stuff. All governments want their piece of the action though and they do assume that goods brought in even for charitable purposes eventually end up being sold by someone so they just put a duty on at the front end. After I heard that I dropped the idea because a full container might easily contain 60 or 70 thousand books. Only a church with a large devoted congregation can muster the manpower, time and resurces to make a project like that happen. Not that it is not a great idea to spread the word but one guy just cannot do it alone.
Bird, freakin UNREAL. I had no idea.
Other than getting hold of Oprah Winfry or the like, talk about effort. Not that it couldnt be overcome, but the effort and challenges loom large it seems.
Just thinking, an option might be find ..say…a christian church in your area, then find the same religous group in the west, connect the two, there may be advantages there. The Catholics would obviously know how to move material across boarders for example.
Maybe a way around the BS needs to be found?
is your internet conection workable for printing? Are printers available?
Maybe it would be easier just to print material from the net?
That way, you need only a pewter,printer,paper,ink and time.
So much printing you might even get the students to help.
Call the operation Gootenberg somthing or other.
Another group might be the mining industry, did I see you mention Sinclair in your neck of the woods?
I have emailed him with questions and he answered all promptly, maybe he has ideas?
Yes, Sinclair is not too far away. We won’t be on speaking terms though because i think he is crazy! About the books though….some people are bringing them over. Takes the patience of a Saint. Plenty of textbooks for universities are published in places like India where they just do knock-offs of copyright material and print it on phone book newsprint so they are affordable for poorer students. More typically books are just shared amongst a group. Nothing wrong with that. It is interesting how much harder it is to bring charitable goods to Africa now though. I have heard it many times. In some countries the laws demand most of the money be raised locally for example which is an impossible condition for some to meet. In other cases there is a clampdown on the importation of things like second hand clothing because it is undermining the developing local textile industries. Things are changing here that is for sure. The mood is that people want jobs, not charity and goernments are trying to promote that.As a result the Chinese who are much less interested in handing out sacks of flour have free reign in many places and are building factories at break neck speed. I live near a Chinese industrial park and people are bussed in by the thousands each day and work round the clock shifts. They sure know how to do business over here but they are also resented by many for thier poor labour practices and low wages.
Obama is not the one to get talks started with Iran. He just accidently stumbled upon it like the peace negotiations with Syria. It is the Iranian president showing an interest & flexibility in improving relations. US presidents can only think of how they can attack middle east countries and/or change leaders to meet US interests.
Al, if there was ever a time to sell gold and buy (quality) mining stocks, it is now. The $XAU (senior gold mining index) is trading at all time lows against gold right now. It would have to triple while gold went nowhere just to match its 2007 average valuation. Even at the absolute bottom in 2008, the $XAU:$GOLD was still well above where it sits now.
Technicians like Gary can keep waiting for their signs that the coast is clear, but I am happy to accumulate on down days until they’re convinced. It could still take months, but it will be more than worth it. Everyone’s needs, goals, and risk tolerance is different; I’m not knocking Gary’s approach.
For those who can’t feel good about buying the miners but still would like some leverage, the safest way to get it, by far, is to buy silver. The gold-silver ratio is currently 61:1. This would be a great time to be overweight silver in your portfolio. If the ratio went to 90 or 100, as it did about 20 years ago, I would sell almost all of my gold and buy silver. Under 40, I would begin to exit silver and buy gold but I would do so in very small amounts until the GSR goes below 30.
I can see trimming gold here, but NOT silver.
Matthew…Absolutely agree with your comments regarding silver
Matthew: I think you are spot on with everything but timing. The silver we hold or have accumulated over the years, in my opinion, will not bear fruit for many years. Eventually yes, but it will most likely pay off for my kids, not me. Ignore the next 5 years as far as anticipating a price increase. Enjoy your posts. Regards !!!
Wow, Jerry, no price increase for 5 years? I can see $27.50 by the end of the year, $33 in the second quarter of 2014, and $50 in 2 years or less. More importantly, I expect the miners to deliver some quick, big gains as soon as the market becomes confident that the lows are behind us. So, bullion could be relatively boring.
I don’t mind a big “I told you so” for each of these targets if they don’t work out! New lows (which I do not expect) would make at least the first two much less likely. We’ll see! Regards.
Jerry:
Not sure that it will be at least 5 years but then again guessing the timing is nearly impossible. I am concerned about what future our kids will have have in view of the distinct possibility that there simply will not be the jobs available for the masses because of technological dislocation………………….and when people get hungry, bad things can and will happen…..I do have faith however in my Faith and in prayer.
Morning Gator,
We are truly in interesting times right now, aren’t we!
I am trying as hard as I can to stay really well informed, but it is getting more and more depressing to do that. I mean, look at the headlines today!
All I can say is that I refuse to let the bastards get me down!
I, for one, agree completely with your comments on precious metals at this time. But then again, I have never bought any with the idea of a short term time frame.
WHAT WERE WE TALKING ABOUT LAST YEAR
Irish points out that he did not need Snowden to tell him “the walls have ears”:
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=the+walls+have+ears&FORM=HDRSC2#view=detail&id=7311EBE646B4D6C4FA16873849A827EE230D0471&selectedIndex=10
On September 29, 2012 at 5:32 am,
irishtony says:
cfs….Re. AL’s , Remarks about Obama…..I feel i have to sympathise with AL….He is running this public show which can be listened to & read by anybody & everybody, & we on this show knowes what that means, they have ears & eyes everywhere….Therefore AL , has to be very diplomatic about what he say’s & prints. IMHO…..Sorry AL if am off base i do appolagise.
Shill economist Nouriel Roubini said the commodity supercycle is likely over.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_Kh7nLplWo
This was published on Rand Paul`s Review – Facebook page – Why I don`t like the Obamas by Mychal Massie http://mychal-massie.com/premium/why-i-do-not-like-the-obamas/
Wow Dennis, some blogger this guy Mychal Massie. Just one quote:
‘Using Obama as the bar, Nero would have been elevated to sainthood’.
I sense that things could very tense indeed over Obama’s remaining time in office., A
As far as the debt is: the titanic might be sinking a little slower than expected.
Evidence could send Obama to prison — two sources already claim to have “Documents and Proofs“ http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2013_08_22/Evidence-could-send-Obama-to-prison-two-sources-already-claim-to-have-Documents-and-Proofs-3648/
Dennis……THANKS FOR THE POST……….this coupled with the no birth certificate should give people pause. This Pretend Pres OBAMSKY is taking the country down quick, Has anyone looked to see the rates on the new health care insurance…..it is a joke. Anyone with a brain can see this President does not care about America.
There`s this link to another super good story that`s not got any gore in it, its from Infowars.com Alex Jones video with WND Jerome R. Corsi, detail account of how the Muslim Brotherhood – Malik Obama – War Criminal Omar Bashir – financing from Saudi Arabia going into the Barack H. Obama Foundation(BHOF) then to terrorists from all over Africa, getting their financing through guess who, like a clear house to finance http://investmentwatchblog.com/horrific-claims-of-torture-emerge-as-soldiers-reveal-gory-kenyan-mall-massacre-details/ the video with Alex Jones and Jerome R. Corsi is about 22:43 in length, you don`t even have to see the other video, which I didn`t see, I`m not into gore. I guess if the Congress can`t IMPEACH Obama perhaps the world court will have to, instead.
Dennis, Obama claims to have nothing to do with his half-brother Malik. But boy oh boy if deals have been proved to be going on between Obama’s government and the Muslim Brotherhood, then Obama will be what the Right have always believed – a closet Muslim, Phew…..!
And I’m sure Ted Cruz is a Cuban-born, Castro loving communist. Phew!
Hi Anita, talk of Ted Cruz is a bit subtle for me over here in the UK. Looked him up to see that he seems to be one hell of an unpopular senator. Anything else to add? Phew…!
Anita Mann, Actually Ted Cruz, is a born-again Christian, his dad is a Preacher of the gospel of Christ Jesus. Senator Ted Cruz, could really our next President, since he`s has been proven to have many years in the United States, many more years as a citizen of the United States, than what are current President has. At least Ted Cruz has a valid birth certificate, whereas Obama has none. ….. End of story…..
GOOD FOR YOU DENNIS………..thanks for the post………….WAKE UP AMERICA……OBAMA IS A FAKE………….
Dennis, watched it,thx for the link.
Dr.Corsi is onto somthing when he says it started prior to the 2nd war.
I believe he is right.
He needs to research the federal reserve,zionism too even people that have researched it really dont grasp an understanding of Rothchild when he said he didnt care who the government was, as long as he has control of the money.
I guess this stuff is hard for people to comprehend, when the election was happening people here actually argued against voting for Ron Paul. I wonder how the Romney voters feel now?
OUTRIGHT TREASON, has been for a very long time, JFK tried to eliminate the cia and he was killed for it, by who? oh ya, turns out it was the fbi most likly, hhmmm,dont they swear to uphold the constitution? Dont the generals of the army,navy,airforce and marines swear to uphold the constitution? defend against enemies forign AND domestic? Those leaders should be tried for treason also.
How long till people figure this out?
With so many americans owning guns it amases me some of these guys are still walking, that few actually see whats happening?
Maybe they are afraid, maybe more afraid than the boys charging machine guns with bayonets?
AArrggg, this federal reserve has got to go, we are Alqida and he has the proof, unreal, these bankers will kill anyone anywhere for profit.
psychopathic inhuman viruses, all of them.
In his dramatic speech in New York, Bolivian President Evo Morales called for the UN to be moved out of the US and for Barack Obama to be tried for crimes against humanity. Speaking to RT, Morales explained his controversial proposals
In his most controversial demand, Morales said that Obama should face an international trial with human rights watchdogs among the judges. The Bolivian president accused his US counterpart of instigating conflicts in the Middle East to make the region more volatile and to increase the US’s grip on the natural resources it abounds in. He gave Libya as an example of a country where “they arranged for the president to be killed, and they usurped Libya’s oil.”
“Now they are funding the rebels that fight against presidents who don’t support capitalism or imperialism,” Morales told Eva Golinger of RT’s Spanish sister channel, Actualidad. “And where a coup d’état is impossible, they seek to divide the people in order to weaken the nation – a provocation designed to trigger an intervention by peacekeeping forces, NATO, the UN Security Council. But the intervention itself is meant to get hold of oil resources and gain geopolitical control, rather than enforce respect for human rights.”
Morales is absolutely correct, of course…and John Perkins, the author of “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man” would heartily agree.
You know bb, maybe I am just getting older but there sure is a lot of crap going on out there.
I suppose one could agree with Morales, but rather than dwell on that I personally prefer to do every damn thing that I can to make our world a better place.
And, you know what? It starts in our homes and goes from there!
Lot of unhappy people out there bb!
President Clinton balanced the budget by funding the Government with shorter and shorter maturities since the interest on short term debt is much lower than 30 year financing.
That’s how he balanced the budget, smoke and mirrors.
Nothing positive in the PM markets for the foreseeable future.
I’m going to try and stay away and avoid paying attention until Jan 2014
Wish I could stop looking!!
Its too frustrating. I need a break.
If gold isn’t over $1,400 by Oct. 1st., God will call me home. Pray for me.
Is that leverage talking?
I hope you don’t mean you are going to kill yourself, John. Gold is not worth it.
Come on John, I’ll be praying for you on October 2nd and from thereon should you want it! I agree with Bird man on this one, Andrew
Kevin Hogan
Quote of the announcer…”A 57 yard Touch Down toss and catch on a 3rd and 9″
33 yd TD pass from Kevin Hogan …to the same guy
45 yd td pass in the rain
I am proud of the work those 2 ladies are doing in Kenya. I used to live there in the 70’s and did my elementary education there. I lived about a mile to 2 miles from where they bombed that mall. It is a great country but corruption is everywhere in every government department from the polic right up to the President. That is how the top officials get wealthy and not from their salaries. Bribes have to be handed out to top gov’t officials just to renew business licences. Ministers take direct bribes. Recently a Canadian junior minor was asked for a very large bribe from a minister to renew their permits. I am sure some of the foreign aid gets into hands of gov’t officials.
WEDONTKNOW
The latest report from the UN Climate Change Police was just released.
The report suggest that earlier reports of the debate that “human activity causes global warming is over” is over.
Apparently the debate that was never had is being won by the people who were told there was no argument for them to make.
Like everything today do not look to the merit… look at the motive.
If we can brutally tax an element of life we can brutally control life.
The New Collective taxing healthcare, bottled water, salt, carbon, and life in general.
The New Collective only Malthus, Darwin and Marx are right.
The New Collective…..take all other opinions to your death!
Segment 3: I really am in agreement with Rick here where he notes that the time will eventually come when these beaten down gold stocks will have a hell of a pop. They are priced just so low already that any sane person should not be arriving at the conclusion that any decent well fortified company will be dropping into oblivion.
This is therefore a great time to plan for the future. But it is a waiting game.
That is not an easy nut for some guys to swallow. Most want performance right now not tomorrow. They need confirmation in days or weeks that they made the right buy. No attention span. That is a mistake in my opinion. Remember the Tortoise and the Hare?
If we go back to a dozen years ago when gold was priced in the gutter there were just a handful of savvy guys saying “get on board, this thing is going to pay off….but it will take time”. Almost nobosy listened to them of course. Gold looked like a dog then and they only started buying years later after most of the easy gains had already been made. That’s how you end up with buyers stuck holding gold at 1700 or 1800 (or more) and feeling ruffled and humiliated.
The thing is though, we are almost certainly going to see a shift to equities from debt instruments in the coming years and there is little doubt this flow of capital will propel miners along with everything else. Right now bonds are looking like a danger zone and even corporate debt does not pass the smell test on such low returns. Junk is pretty much out the window already and unless municipals start putting more on offer they will not perform.
So we really need to ask ourselves just one major question…..where is the money going to go? More specifically, as forward looking investors, we might also be asking ourselves what it is we want to own in the future given that vitually every major Central Bank in the world now seems poised to pursue a process of devaluations.
Gold is not the only thing to buy of course. When I think of the outlook for a combination for capital preservation, growth, income and safety I know that gold stocks and similar miners cannot be overlooked.
This is a waiting game though and patience is required. Anyone with a long term outlook and even a faint understanding of the cracks that are appearing in the global financial system against a backdrop of some inevitable sovereign defaults will probably already be looking at acquiring quality mining stock that is now on sale.
To me it is now immaterial if those companies improve this week or in two years time. Positioning ahead of the changes is what matters to me now. So it is an easy decision to make. I think the odds of success outweight the potential for losses manyfold and thus the aspect of this being a gamble for my own portfolio is low.
One last point…..I agree with others who are now suggesting that pension funds could or will be confiscated in the future and converted to bonds. It is also my belief though that direct equity ownership will not be impacted as governments will be loathe to stick a knife in the heart of the corporate world first and secondly because the outcry from those most invested in stocks would be deafening.
And we all know who those guys are. Lets just assume they will not be getting screwed over along with the general public when the day comes to make an unrepayable debt disappear if the Treasury market runs dry.
And one last thought. For the longest time I fretted over the idea that any serious downturn on the markets would result in precious metals stock also taking a hit. That is no longer my position. Other than suffering an initial (likely modest) drop along with everything else I think it is predictable that the contra-cyclical aspect of gold markets would quickly kick in. Part of my reasoning is that an equities rout might be preceded by rising bond rates which is not necessarily a negative for gold stocks in consideration of the reasons why rates are creeping up. The solvency issue of so many governments is now in question as are doubts about the sustainability of gross debtedness. The financial aspect of metals would therefore get a lift and any worries over potential debt downgrades or default will be a precursor to a renewed interest in gold, silver and platinum. There are no guarantees of course. The future is hard to read at the best of times. My own tea leaves are simply telling me to position in what is already cheap with regard to what we all know is transpiring in the background.
I agree Bird Man that a downturn in market would initially be back for gold stocks but the fundamentally strong socks will bounce very fast. I think the majors will take longer to recover just because of the mediocre properties they hold on the books and continue to mine. Shutting those down will be expensive and the investors perception of these stocks needs to change. The only way to do that is what we see some of the majors doing, changing their strategies moving forward.
Those of a most serious mindset may want to ignore this so as to save time (3 minutes)
2 Choir Boys Sing The Meow Song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPdqdqj3ghY
Helpful as usual, Irwin. Got anything better?
Not sure if sarcasm was intended there, but no matter; here’s something different if not better. (4:35 minutes)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbczBcz78vo
“Jesus’ Blood Never Failed Me Yet is a piece of music composed by Gavin Bryars in 1971. It is based around a recorded loop of an un-named tramp improvising a hymn; eventually rich harmonies are played by a live ensemble of strings and brass, always increasing in density. The recording was originally made for a 1960s documentary by Alan Power which chronicled street life in London. Later when listening to the recordings, Bryars noticed that the clip was very in tune, and that it looped well into 13 bars. The tramp died before being able to hear the completed piece.
“The studio in which Bryars made the piece was next to a busy art studio. When constructing the piece, Bryars unintentionally left the loop playing and his door open during a lunch break; when he returned, the usually lively studio was quiet, and some people were crying.
“A new recording of this work was made in the 1990s with Tom Waits singing along with the original recording of the tramp during the final section.”
Kind of moving Irwin in contrast to all the other machinations going on. …Blessed are the meek for they shall inherit the Earth comes to mind, A
Andrew; I particularly like the emphasis in the original recording on the word “yet”. He wasn’t reciting a song learned in Sunday School such as “Jesus loves me this I know”; rather, he attempted to express his current life experience in the form of a praise song. -just my interpretation.
Sorry Irwin. I just figured the Meow song was you trying to get under my skin. You know….birds/cats and all that jazz.
Nope, Bird Man .. the thought never entered my mind.
-that’s the beauty of internet; one can make the most innocuous post and piss off any number of people 🙂
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/house-republicans-meet-as-shutdown-looms-2013-09-28
Jobs report would be delayed and that should delay a potential hit to gold. Maybe a shutdown is what we need to get this market going.
Sure now is a good time to buy miners… but only if you think the bear market has ended. If the bears do manage to take gold back down to $1000 over the next couple of months then miners are going to get hit another 30-40%.
I suspect no one who is buying here is prepared to weather that kind of draw down.
It would be much better to wait and buy at $1000, suffer little or no draw down and then make a hell of a lot of money while everyone else is just trying to get back to even.
I actually am prepared to weather that kind of drawdown. Such a drop would not be enough to make a new low for my bunch of juniors, most of which bottomed way before gold and silver did. I do think we have seen the lows for bullion.
That makes two of us. This is worth weathering and waiting. I cannot be bothered with timing at this stage. I mean look, Gary, battered is battered and gold stocks have been on the verge of death row long enough now that management at most are making progress in trying to find redemption amongst buyers again. They have seen the light so to speak and that makes the beginnings of opportunity off lows a great deal more enticing. The other thing is that you could be wrong on your 1000 dollar call and thus you would miss what may be a near bottom altogether. Actually, many miners have been on the rise already despite gold’s action. Gold equities and gold are certainly not perfectly correlated. I have switched out of the bear camp in any case and no longer feel so negative on the prognosis for miners. I just believe the rise will be slow.
Remember, too, that if gold shoots higher from here, those who are out and awaiting $1000 will make much less money as they would be forced to chase prices higher. The juniors can move like call options when any confidence reappears.
Remember ” don’t sell at $1900 yet, its going to $2500 ”
Dan
Exactly! Don’t buy at $1200, it’s going to $900! Gold was as overbought at $1900 as it was oversold at $1200. (Even if you were trying to make the opposite point, gold’s similar but inverted action, today compared to two years ago, is what is important to me.) I am more bullish on the sector now, than I have been in years.
Thank you Matthew for keeping the faith. I haven’t got your knowledge but am full of optimism as are you, Andrew
Andrew, if you’re optimistic now, I think you have more knowledge than you think! That’s my opinion, anyway.
These charts point to much better times ahead for gold and even more so for silver and the miners. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/aden/aden092913/3.gif
[…] here Written by Gold […]
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304213904579095303368899132.html?mod=trending_now_1 Why tough teachers get good results, I agree and we have talked about this many times on this site. DT
Our highest priority going forward is to fix our broken political system. Short of that, there is no viable long-term solution to our badly warped economy.”
-Alan Greenspan
I have a very good reason to think gold may be headed to $1000. It’a based on cycles analysis.
An intermediate cycle that tops in a left translated fashion (11 weeks or less) more often than not makes a lower low. At the moment it’s looking more and more likely that this intermediate cycle topped on week 9 and is now in decline. Confirmation will come if gold drops below $1291. That would start a new pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
If $1291 is breached then gold bugs better batten down the hatches as the next intermediate cycle low won’t be due for another 5-8 weeks, and a breach of $1179 is very likely.
And if the stops are run below $1179 gold will probably collapse again and move down to $1000 in a matter of days at that point.
It costs very little to wait for the weekly charts to be repaired at this point. A move above $1417 would do the trick. While on the other hand a perma bull stance could get one caught in another leg down in this cyclical bear market.
If one can avoid another leg down and buy at the bottom then you will be up 50-100% while everyone else is just trying to get back to even.
$1000 is the zone where every bear is going to cover and every hedge fund in the world is going to buy long. The risk at $1000 gold is very small and if it is reached as gold moves into the timing band for an intermediate bottom that would give one even more confidence to buy at that point.
This is why my main trading tool is cycles. They are very good at spotting bottoms and if a cycle looks like it’s going to unfold in a left translated manner then one knows to exit and wait for the next bottom.
That is the situation at the moment. Gold’s intermediate cycle is showing signs that it has topped in a left translated fashion. That is grounds to exit and sit on the sidelines until the cycle is repaired, or if it does make a lower low then use the cycle timing band to enter closer to the low rather than 5-8 weeks too early.
I don’t think that a speculator in very illiquid micro-cap juniors is likely to agree with a trader on how to best play this market. When it comes to bullion, I prefer to accumulate with a longer term perspective. So, if $1417 is a good price, $1300 is a better price.
The type of juniors I hold could go up 50% or more as gold moves above $1417, so I wouldn’t say “it costs very little to wait.” Buying a very low volume stock into strength can get expensive in a hurry. While most people buy a breakout, I am more likely to sell one.
Hi Gary, when I was in college I liked Tops and Bottoms,(just kidding) now I try to pick entry points based on fundamentals and listening to technical people with a proven track record like Doc and Rick.
My intuition if there is such a thing tells me that we are headed up from here not down and if I was sitting on the sidelines watching the budget ceiling get debated I think it is cause for an increase in precious metals. Gold selling for one thousand dollars an ounce does not seem reasonable to me so I would not place my bets on that being an outcome. Just passing along a bit of how I feel, you maybe right but my money would not see your thinking as a probable outcome. Respectfully, DT
I like Garys thinking.
Gold imo will increase due to the debt ceiling, but once that is adressed down it comes again. Giving us a trading oportunity.
Other than that, I feel that it goes up and doesnt stop when phyzz runs out to supply demand until a price is reached where people trade gold for dollars bringing back equilibrium.
But up to now, supply has met demand easily, thats why we still see pics of fully stocked dealers. As mine are.
Well, thats my 2 grams.
Hi bb, if you live in North America there is a lot of supply at dealers outlets, I wonder why that could be, maybe The Asians could enlighten us on that one. Do you know the food store warehouses here only carry a two day supply but the retail outlets are fully stocked for now. That’s a fact not fear mongering DB. DT
Hi DT, I always get mixed up 3 days food and 4 hours fuel supply or vis versa, but yes, we are/use “just in time delivery”.
A few times I have mentioned here to ensure enough supplies in the house to ride out disruptions, especially medicines.
But honustly DT, nobody is short PMs, no industry or people wanting them.
Awhile back I pressed and pressed, “who/where is out?” “where are the line ups?”
Big Al said he finaly saw a line up in Vancouver and it turned out to be a We Buy Gold place not a dealer.
Maybe there were are line ups in China, I dont know, maybe they are buying tons and tons, but people have been saying that for litterally years now and Canada has never been short in any way shape or form.
Just what I see.
today ate the open 100 % manipulation off the gold price fed gov and market news is boll !
Hi bb, if you are right and I am wrong life will go on as usual but if the opposite occurs you will probably not get the chance to transfer from one asset into another if you already haven’t. Russian roulette is a game played by desperate people. I prefer to live in a brick house. Respectfully, DT
life as usual i no think soo day wind samting !
Hi DT, It doesnt matter to me if I am right or wrong or if you are, I just think gold is somthing people should own. I buy every month.price doesnt matter, except this month I figured I would wait a few days and see if Gary is right. Not a big deal either way if he is right or wrong.
I buy all gold now as I have nowhere left to store silver, all outside the system. When I run out of room for gold guess I switch to diamonds.
I am just yakin, whatever happens is not going to change anything I do.
I try trading but obviously not with phyzz.
Anyway, I suppose trying to figure things out as to when to get in or out of gold would be stressful, at least it would be to me.
If it gets somwhere around equilibruium to money supply, I can see trading out then, but we are a long way from that.
Any talk of a DEBT CEILING IS A JOKE………..there is not going to be a ceiling, only debt, and OBANKRUMPSKY
Jerry, if you wake up in the morning and take your happy pills everything turns green and the debt disappears. DT
DT………..no pills……….only happy pillows…………..ootb
oh, the pillows are stuffed with green cash…………..
BUY GOLD NO CARE NEWS BUY day love gold more dan US !
This is a bit tongue in cheek but I figure China could have close to 15,000 tons of gold in their central banks. They buy all their mines supply and they are the biggest producers worldwide.
Add in The gold held from other countries as collateral and that includes the german bullion that hasn’t and won’t be shipped back for seven years and this could even surprise to the downside.
Most people here aren’t aware that The US held over twenty thousand tons of gold bullion in the mid 1930’s, as payment for industrial goods. DT
DT………one thing for sure,,,China has more than anyone knows………….
GOLD IS COMING UP BOYS BUY !!!!!!!!
Hello franky!
we mist u franky
Al, must have given franky a weekend pass so he could be with his family. DT
Ditto!!! franky’s two percent is worth listening to!
Dennis……………………………….My thoughts exactly although maybe Frankie has a spouse
UP UP AND AWAY BOYS BUY GOLD !
the jose the jose luk up diss (((( QUEEN KNIGHTS.THE VATICAN’S JESUIT TRAIND PRESIDENT PERES )))))))) BUY GOLD !!!!
Now then jon/franky less of the 98%….PLEASE!!!!
What Ackerman said in segment 5 doesn’t make any sense because GLD and Comex gold move in parallel. The technical picture for both should be the same.
Futures trade different hours than GLD, which trades with the stock market’s hours.
Did you know that if an investor had only been long gold during U.S. trading over the last decade, he would have lost money? Those who stayed long the whole time are up 4-5 fold. I wish I could remember who to credit for that amazing info, but I did not figure it out.
That GLD 108 prediction by Ack came out of nowhere cause he’s been positive on gold recently.
Rick is good at keeping his feelings out of his “hidden pivot” method, so there must be something to this target’s potential. GLD 108 = 1114+/- gold. Charles Nenner put out a new target of 1100, so… who knows? Charts do get “painted” by big money, so I’ll stick with the view that the bottom is behind us.
Adrian Douglas. He spotted it by the london fix. Forget which wy it worked, buy only am fix sell pm fix or buy pm sell am and make money. vis versa is a loser.
He showed that the odds of the market not being criminal were beyond chance.
Thanks, he’s probably the one.
“own gold – and hope it never goes up”
~Peter G (7 minutes into this 24 minute clip)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb8wREpQYGg
Mission accomplished.
Can I get a refund on this insurance policy?
[…] Also… for those of you who never tire of hearing my silky smooth voice, I was happy to be part of the Friday Commentary over at the Korelin Economics Report and also participated in a roundtable discussion as part of the popular Weekend Show. […]
For what it is worth, Tim is doing a great job. Very valuable commentary.
Probably never will be asked to be on our show again because he lives in Missula by a ski hill and a golf course and I am VERY JEALOUS!
Total debt is something around 16 trillion.
Total pension saings in the US is also about 16 trillion.
By coincidence, annual GDP is now running at around 16 trillion.
Maybe it is just in my mind where I see a symmetry in that triad of economic activity, savings and debt being roughly equal to one another. Assuming the relationship between the three does not go out of balance in the future the easy conclusion to arrive at is that there is plenty of room to increase debt even further.
So if nominal GDP rises to 17 trillion next year and total pension assets does the same is it impossible to imagine that debt might not also follow without discord erupting?
With a few adjustments to public disbursements coming down the road (a higher age of retirement for example), some increases to taxes kicking in along the way and a serious attempt to contain the deficit there is probably hope.
Of course, most here would probably argue there is no hope whatsoever. We are doomed of course. What is worth discussing though is the so-called unfunded liabilities that are future obligations not yet paid. These can indeed be adjusted and future expectations lowered. What is more pressing as far as I can see is that the debt itself is restrained from growing as quickly as it has been.
Deficit reductions and the containment of new spending are therefore the most urgent issues of the state. All other things being equal we have not yet reached the point of no return especially as the economy seems to be improving.
Please explain how we have not reached the point of no return!
It’s just a bunch of numbers Al. There are inumerable ways to make a formula balance. I really don’t know why anyone worries so much about the debt. They screech to all high heaven about it. How come they never seem to make an equal effort to add up the revenues that offset the future and unfunded’s though? The drama really would die down a lot if the analysis included both sides of the ledger.
Yeh, just a bunch of numbers.
The problem is that the reality is that the “bunch of numbers” in total spell disaster.
Don’t you agree, Bird?
No Al. As a matter of fact I don’t agree. That may surpise you but everything is relative and that includes debt numbers that, while they seem inconcievably high, are not so big relative to total savings and the aggregate of economic activity. Let us not lose perspective here. I have left a comment for Bob Moriarty in todays blog posts that will explain my position if you are curious. We obsess over debt unecessarily when it is only the deficit which matters. I happen to think the position taken by many amounts to fear mongering and that it shows a lack of perspective, responsibility and maturity.
[…] Click here […]
There is no such thing called the debt ‘ceiling’. It is a ‘Target’ and such bulls-eye has been hit with precision. On how may occasions now in the past dozen years? Seventeen (17) .
Enjoy the weekend~