Opening morning comments from Big Al and Gary Savage
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
A Report on gold:
How we got here….
Why we should expect $1460 within 12 months and over $2200 longer term.
PDF file.
http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/150379486?extension=pdf&from=embed&source=embed
12 months? $1460 in 2 months looks more likely, even if only for technical reasons.
I would think that you are correct, Matthew.
Big Al
Thanks CFS. Agreed Matthew. I am not a technician. There estimates seem conservative to me. Prudent conservatism is probably a smart play given the shenanigans we are currently going through.
Thanks for the link, CFS
By the way, how about coming on the show?
Big Al
Yes, thanks for the link. I can see that this report is full of interesting data.
It (PDF file) takes a bit to down and about the location of its origin, I am Sergeant Shultz
“I know nuthzing) (Hogan’s Heroes……shows my age doesn’t it)
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/06/26/toronto-to-become-a-yuan-trading-hub/ I can see the day when Toronto will rival New York as the biggest North American banking centre, we have already bypassed Chicago in population and this city has and has had a lot of Chinese speakers spread out across our community and that along with the fact that our country is such a perfect fit for The Chinese economy makes this almost a certainty. DT
I did not realize that the Chinese influence was so great in Toronto. I guess that shows my ignorance, Machine Gun!
Big Al
Physical platinum and palladium are poised to outperform in the precious metal markets. What is happening in Russia and South Africa and the car market in China will drive prices much higher in the near future. IMHO DT.
I personally think that you could be correct, Machine Gun.
Big Al
Platinum and palladium are not doing too great here compared to the S&P500; maybe that is because emerging markets are actually doing pretty mediocrely at present.
I wonder if problems in South Africa will explode since Nelson Mandela is so very poorly right now and a power struggle of huge proportions might ensue soon. SA is in danger of going the way of Zimbabwe, the there could be a mega bull for platinum and rhodium that are 75% miined there. Palladium might catch a wind behind it as an alternative to platinum or if Russia squeezes supply.
Gold failed at 1225 so I cashed out my gdxj and nem shares at a small gain as well as my market etf as gold will plummet and drag down the whole market possibly. Was hoping for a gold rally again.
We just might hit that $1150ish triangle target after all. If so, I bet it will happen in the next 24 hours. It’s good to see silver outperforming gold today, but $17.50 could be next.
Crazy markets, huh Matthew!
Big Al
Yes indeed!
Good point about Silver. It is holding fast and gold fell hard. Indicates to me a bounce lies dead ahead for precious metals and it could be a strong jump. I am leaning towards a reversal in prices as imminent. Friday or Monday at the latest. Trying to short now looks VERY dangerous to me…..Just my opinion.
See….I am not always a bear. I will happily shift with the winds of fortune.
That’s what I said on my blog, Matthew. Looks like my analysis is going to make me some money 🙂
Congratulations, Mark, making some money is always a good thing!
1150 looks likely though there is a bit of support showing at $1200 right now (Thursday evening 27 June 2013). 1200is at the base of a short term downtrend so if it beaks down, there is another leg down coming, $1155 is the start of the big upmove in gold from mid-2010 and that might be the bottom, coincident to within $5 with the triangle formation target depending on where you choose it to be. $1120 could also be a good target for several reasons.
I agree with the details you provided. It would probably be a good thing if it does make it to at least $1155.
Glad you made a gain even though it sounds like it was small.
Big Al
not investment advice…..I can see a rally in the next 6 weeks , if not sooner.
Based on?
Big Al
AL……The Leprechauns told me ….On a serious note, based on what I have been reading, listening to , & watching , & some Irish logic , but I see another take down before a rally.
Interesting. I don’t Tony. Not before a suckers rally anyway and that bounce is coming…….
…right about now.
$1200 gold.
Al, you speak way too soon.
Probably Fred, but in these times who really knows!
Big Al
I suggested to a friend to get out of slw.to and ssl.to as the mines providing their streams will surely shut down vs. operating at a loss….it’s important to keep in mind that physical right now may drop but it’s still a bargain….the mining shares really have no limit on downside if production or profit cease to exist….so I think it’s best to be on the sidelines. Al, could we have some technical analysis please? It’s my intention to get back in when the time is right.
I sold the last of my GORO at about $23 because I thought the dividend would be cut. It took awhile but sure enough, it was cut 50%. It now trades at $8. My highest sale was about $31 and I paid an average of $2.32/share.
Physical is definitely a bargain. I’ll take silver over gold at this time (but everyone should have some gold).
As always, thx for your valuable input, Matthew.
On June 25, 2013 at 3:58 pm,
Simon says:
Technical Picture:
SPX – Is tracing-out an A-B-C move lower implying potential slippage to SPX 1250-1280 zone. In the meantime, short-term oversold. Expect anemic bounce into the 1600-1620 zone on low volume before resumption of trend lower.
Gold- Needs to hold or a ‘potential’ move to $1100-1150 zone, which if were to fail, implies potential $900′s.
Silver – Looks like $17 level awaits.
Bonds (10-Yr) – Short-term oversold. Expect bounce followed by resumption of trend. Lower ie…Higher rates/yields.
$USD- Is currently in compression. A move to 85 then perhaps 89.
Euro – Move lower with long-term 108 tgt.
Oil – In compression. Needs to clear $98/bbl (WTIC) and ‘stick’. If unable, perhaps a re-test of $90/bbl. Jury still in deliberations.
These are merely Technical observations absent fundamental interpretations.
Good luck everyone.
My long SPY/ short GLD destroying Gary’s portfolio.
I am starting a subscription service and will tell you guys when to get long gold, and why cycles are garbage. Who is interested?
If you are a poor soul who bought SLV leaps, I feel for you. In the future, do not be so gullible.
[cough, cough]
My GDX puts have made more money than Gary’s subscribers have lost. Well, maybe not.
Gary logic: My cycles are the best market tool in the world, I have used them to destroy the portfolios of my subscribers. If I am wrong, it is not because of me it is because of the Fed. I call for a crash, if the market does not crash it is because the Fed is buying stocks. I will call for gold to go to 10,000 if it doesn’t happen it is because the Fed is manipulating it.
Lot of interesting comments about Gary. I will look into his track record.
Thanks,
Big Al
Probably a waste of your time, Al. Truth is that Gary has been selling exactly what people want to hear and so they got exactly what they paid for. Can you see a theme developing here where the same people who blame others for losses are also abusive to those who gave a more realistic yet negative outlook on precious metals? In my own case I have been telling others to get short or sell since the top (which I nailed perfectly by the way). As an outcome I have been rewarded with a barrage of insults, sarcastic comments and even been threatened on another site where I was posting because my views were not in sync with the popular rhetoric. That reaction came despite being correct all the way down and still continues even recently as I was predicting sub 20 dollar silver. There is not a gold-bug in 10,000 that would have paid a subscription fee to hear the truth though because it defies everything they hold dear and conflicts with the popular ideology and myth. Gary is just giving them what they want so in my opinion none has a reason to cry afterwards when they were simply gravitating to others with a similar belief system. It is important to separate truth from hype during a speculative mania but just try telling that to buyers who are both emotionally and financially all-in!!!
You make some VERY good points Bird Man!
Well thank you so much Reverend!
Birdman,
You express much of how I feel about this sector. I believe in the metals and encourage people to buy them, but I sure lost A LOT OF MONEY (to me anyway) listening to the gold bugs who always touted “going higher. My fault for being uninformed and uneducated in regards to markets. People have a natural tendency towards CONFIRMATION BIAS and that is what has helped destroy the image of the precious metals as investments to the common Joe, that and along with an endless list of conspiracy theories or excuses as to why gold didn’t go up. Whenever someone disagrees with a goldbug’s analaysis then ‘”let them be anethema!” has been the outspoken cry. That is simply unprofessional and shows a great deal of ignorance. ALL MARKETS MOVE IN CYCLES and those cycles move BOTH ways.
Excellent comment, Mark. I do agree. From where I stand now though I believe we may actually be on the cusp of a tremendous rise in price (even if it is a suckers bounce so we will be cautious of that). The motive in this case is pure unforsaken greed and nothing else. The fundamentals have no bearing on the situation whatsoever right now but rather there is a growing belief that gold has struck such a low point that it can only go up and with it the miners will fly. Seriously, you have never heard me say anything bullish on gold until these last few days but i am pumped and feel sure this puppy is about to fly. God willing or it will cost me a pile!
Gary sounds befuddled. At least he is not afraid to express it. The ONLY boat in this “thousands feet deep of unchartered water” is super money – gold.