Trader Rog weighs in on the “great” market.
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If gold recovers 250 dollars, what does TRADER ROG feel might happen to silver?
tks
What do I think Al?
Well for starters gold is not going up 250 bucks anytime soon. Neither do I agree with Roger that the market is consolidating for a bump in price. The dynamics of the market remain overwhelmingly bearish and until that changes or sentiments improve the odds of further declines remain intact.
We will be retesting the lows rather than climbing back above the 200 day for any length of time. Gold is still a short and most of the analysts have got it wrong (as usual).
No offence Roger. I am not trying to argue here but I really don’t see your bullish call as valid. Not from a technical standpoint and not from a fundamental one either. Just take a look at Silver for an early warning on what is coming. Falling to 22.11 today so far which is a 1.2% decrease.
As you know, my position is that silver is leading gold and not the other way around as many assert. Prices for the poor mans gold are still in the throes of collapse. Anyone who thinks that they are just retracing the past climb and will be coming back anytime soon is not looking at the charts.
Silver went parabolic many months ago.
It will not therefore stop falling now until it has mean reverted. So what does that say about gold? I think the answers should be obvious but it is doubtful I will find support for that idea here even if it is true (it is true).
Both metals remain a short. Miners meanwhile are not a buy until AFTER we have seen a general equities correction which is now long overdue. Sniffing around and perhaps legging in to some of the juicier plays is just fine but keep in mind a consolidation in the industry still lies ahead and there will indeed be carnage amongst the Juniors before a resolution is at hand.
That is what I think.
agree 100%
The only way to retest the lows as you say is to make a triple bottom as Trader Rog said! We tested/held the Apr bottom, thus making a double bottom. Having said that, I’m no fan of Elliot Waves.
Right. Roger did in fact say that and I neglected to note that in my post. I agree with him on that point but I believe we will break through to lower levels and not bounce off the bottom. As far as the gold and silver equities are concerned though they definitely have an upside. I don’t know anybody who really questions that. Even if gold were to decline miners can still rise as they are just so depressed they are defying all logic and reason. I am attempting to time my reinvestment there though and so while I am very tempted to get back in the saddle I am more anxious to avoid declines that are still coming our way.
Has Trader Rog made an accurate call in the past 2 years? The charts are anything but positive for gold. The trend is your friend which is down.
agree…why fight it now? looks like they will break 1321, get down to “wherever” and then maybe there is a rally? but maybe not and the whole thing stops going down when it does? Bird you have been right but that is not the point, why be a dead hero?
Not dead and not a hero, NYC. Just calling it like I see it. Let the other analysts take their lumps every time gold drops another nickel. If you agree then why the threat?
I agree with you…no threat…I meant why be a bull and lose every time until it stops going down
OK. Now I see what you meant.
Gosh…..thinking with gold struggling and now in a bear market, Germany should be able to get that fraction of their Gold back even faster….no need to wait seven years now, right??
Al, regarding fundamentals:
I think central bank and hedge fund activities are market fundamentals. The banks are buying real bullion while the hedge funds are naked shorting the futures. What happens when the central banks want that bullion promised in the futures….first the “real” futures and then the naked shorts. I wonder which hedge funds want to be the last out and first consumed? That moment of truth could very well take gold to Trader Rog’s number and maybe more.
Shorting gold has been the easiest trade of my life. As soon as you appreciate that everyone from China to India to Japan, the Fed and EU policy makers including the worlds Central Banks wants gold dead you can start making good money. It is just that simple.
Maybe not dead, but maybe China et al want to buy low so ultimately a new Breton Woods regime (gold or partially gold back currencies) can come to being. China need much more Gold to be at the table with the west..the Fed ECB ect don’t care about Gold and perhaps are not upset when it bottoms out at $1100? $1200? who knows but something is going on Bird with Paper/Physical/China ect
I think “has been” are the operative words.
“Central banks” in general is a big umbrella. There are western central banks and eastern central banks. The West is lying while the East buying. Western economies are a bust while the East is booming. Indeed, it “has been” a great (downhill) ride for the skinny dippers in the PM futures market–but every hill has its bottom—–and every rose has its thorn.
To reinforce my points: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/29/gold-demand-wgc-idUSL5N0E93U920130529
4 wealthy investors buying 60% of a resource co that’s news! can you name the co or the investors? dwj