Al and Trader Rog discuss this frustrating market
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I believe we are now seeing a turnaround in some of the miners; e.g. GDX or GDXJ.
There is some movement also in uranium and rare earths. (Movement upwards)
Also in energy, oil and gas. Look at where stocks have been oversold (RSI less than 30)
and watch them head up.
I am almost fully invested for me, having bought 5000 ounces of silver last thursday; that’s it for metals buying.
I have just bought several thousand shares in Freidland’s new Pd,Pt,Ni exploration company, and also some of Mcewen’s copper project, and some rare earth miners that are a few years from production in heavy rare earths.
The reason I’m investing in copper is because the Indian economy is still showing growth. The reason I’m investing in rare earth is because China has loosened up on exports, there will be a shortage. While the dollar collapse may still be a year away, it is getting closer, and I need to preserve wealth, hence gold and silver metals.
cfs….if you want to unload any of the bullion,,,or it gets to heavy to move around….give me a jingle……or call……ALWAYS PAYING FAIR PRICE….
Don’t forget you valuable broker, The Short!
Big Al
got ya covered……do not tell Irish or he will want his pint of “G”
put in “although” in front of China above
Somebody is going to make money on resources in the ground.
Have fun trading with the trading portion of your portfolio,
Act like your core positions are in a safe and you forgot the combination.
A couple of stock notes.
A year ago Silver Wheaton offered about 4.7 ounces per share in silver equivalent reserves and resources. I was thrilled last May when it traded below spot silver. Today the holding provides 5.8 ounces of silver equivalent reserves and resources per share after the Hudbay and more recent Vale deal. SLW is trading $2 over spot silver as I type. Watch SLW if it has a twenty handle and do not let it get back to a thirty handle without adding. If SLW trades under spot silver buy it… before it trades above it again. My opinion.
NEM, FNV and RGLD put collars on them. Do not pick bottoms ….leave that for the catfish and flounder. Let them go and bounce where they bounce if….. but pick them up.
It would be a shame for the bear raiders to enjoy both sides of the trade.
I can sell you a Nigerian Oil producer yielding 10% if you like but another day.
STE is an interesting long term hold of mine…not quit the Korelin thing but…. involved in mainly in sterilization at hospitals…interesting in the day of MRSA. Regardless what happens with healthcare they are going to have to deal with increasing hospital acquired infection problem or we will return to Dr. Welby house calls.
I am considering making up a portfolio 25% SLW,FNV, RGLD and NEM…reinvest dividends and see who wins. Actually I think I will do just that. We will see what happens.
I would guess NEM, despite being the go to share in gold will do the worst.I bought ABX instead of NEM because of new CEO. MRSA was and is a serious problem in the UK; I lost an uncle to drug-resistant similar bug about 5 years ago. They are using more silver plate than they used to. e.g. for faucets. Used to be all stainless steel everywhere, but silver plate is better, even if it tarnishes.
SLW HAD A GOOD 20 minute spot on BNN.CA from the PDAC. Explained their purchase of gold and small copper streams would have been 3/3 or 3/4 and probably archived.
Dennis , we don’t have the jobs report out yet. If there was a big disappointment to the downside it could really move these markets. Having said that, have you been watching that enamel paint dry? Just wondering?
I preferred the paint drying for 6 weeks at 1666 AU level. I swear the painter is involved in the occult. That is when Ag hugged $32 even. Looks like your pennant pattern broke to the opportunity let us hope side. I understand the psychology of these government number role outs but in the market this board discuss the most important # is not U3 it is M3. I find it amusing when quarterly GDP is discussed divorced from running a quarter trillion plus government deficits.
He may not be, Doc. With my bad back that is about all that I have been able to do for the past week or so.
Nothing like being away from home, and not being able to stand up straight let alone type.
Big Al
Timmins Gold went up 20% today. I was waiting to buy at lower levels.
I personally think TMM is a great core holding!
Big Al
I am also short long bonds and holding back some cash that is earmarked for grains later.
I also own a Nigerian oil stock that scares the h*ll out of me. Shell loses 10% of their production due to pipeline sabotage/thievery. Mine is just a small company that got lucky with lease allocation. although I made the mistake of buying some NZ.V, I have essentially written it off, but liking the New Zealand story, I bought more shares of a much bigger company working in the Taranaki basin. SLW is my biggest single holding, which because of its growth profile I held on during the last few years. And streaming and royalty companies predominate my portfolio. I am not good at picking exploration companies; never seem to cut my losses early enough.
I am thinking of putting trailing stops on ALL my regular shares, because the Dow is showing signs of peaking. Once stopped out I will not go back into that stock or a similar stock. I am not putting stops on PM stocks, they’re just too volatile.
The money printing by the fed is fueling the conventional stock market to rise on strictly hot cash devoid of productive economic fundamentals. Likewise the massive drop gold and silver, their miners, some oil stocks and commodities is free money from the fed to backstop hedge funds in a bid to support enforcement of financial repression. Loss of civil law and order and destruction of liberties is also part of plan.
These things are causing acceleration of money printing all over the world and because the US dollar is for the moment reserve currency, the Fed money printing exports the inflation it causes to the other nations which are forced to print. As inflation increases rapidly outside the US geopolitical tensions rise fast which will precipitate retaliation. Because the nations of the world receive the negative end of the Reserve Currency central back printing, they will at some point form alliances to fight the Fed and if necessary the US. This is how world wars begin, but in this early part of the the 21st century the upcoming world war will pit the US against most of world without any allies.
Why if the end result of what the Fed is doing would result in a war its homeland can not win would they ever think of starting such actions? Truly I don’t think they want this to play out that way, but from their perspective the risks of starting a world war which they can’t win is less than what would happen to them if the Federal Government went completely bankrupt and the US ends up in a collapsing depression. The reason the fed and its Federal Government see it this way is because they have committed to many outrages crimes against the people of the US and world to escape capital punishment from a depressionary collapse. Big corporations and most certainly the big banks would simply not exist anymore should the collapse come. I really wish these people at the Fed and Federal government who have decided this coarse of action would have done otherwise, because a world war fought here in the US will devastate the American people, but the criminals in the Big Banks, corporations, Fed and Federal Government will mostly get away from it while the people burn.
Good post Clay,
I hope you won’t mind if I build on your last point: “the criminals in the Big Banks, corporations, Fed and Federal Government will mostly get away from it while the people burn.” <– This is key, because the distinction between the American people and the group increasingly known by pejorative terms like "The Syndicate" needs to be emphasized. The reserve currency racket and all it spinoffs do not serve the interests of the citizenry at large. This is very similar tot he setup prior to the French Revolution. Enough said?
Thank Lore. Yes you are absolutely right. Your insights bring up a very good point which I post below to comment about Martin Armstrong.
Its the flow of capital. Money has always been “fiat”. Money moves from place to place. As money flees Europe it has moved to the US. Dollars need to be purchased to buy assets outside of Europe, including gold.
Hyperinflation cannot happen in the reserve currency, for it creates hyperdeflation in other markets. It is only frustrating to those who cannot understand money flows.
Your views must be very small to not understand how money flows work.
Under old gold coin standards when one cold coin was clipped or debased it was devalued vs other gold coins as money flowed.
Calling the market frustrating is an excuse for being wrong.
Money has flowed from the gold juniors because the “currency” of the company has been debased through dilution of shares and irresponsible spending on IR and travel.
It is not confusing it is logical.
If you’re so brilliant about “money flows,” aka “currency wars,” then why do you carefully avoid any details as to your own investment strategy? Demonstrate your brilliance. I dare ya.
The problem with Martin is that his logic is selective. For example by what real economic account not imaginary is a reserve currency established and maintained? A reserve currency is not established or set by the nation which prints it, it is set by other nations which keep it on savings as a reserve. So by definition a nation who was given world reserve currency status has Exorbitant Privileges, a term coined in the 1960s by Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, then the French Minister of Finance. Such privileges are earned not dictated by the beneficial. The concept of Martin that maintenance and continuance of this privilege by disdain of all other currencies without concern for exorbitancy and all the requirements therein is illogical and absurd, just as absurd as maintaining a world based currency based on ever increasing debt to Gross Domestic Income. Not possible.
People like Martin talk a good talk, but when analyzed the very talking points destroy their conclusions.
Hi Clay,
As I said yesterday, From as fundamental perspective, the resource segment makes all the sense in the world today in my opinion.
Big Al
Thank you Al, Rog and friends for the constructive observations. The last poster suggests that “my views must be very small,” as I hold some instruments that have taken a drubbing over the last couple of years, the last couple of months in particular. One lesson that I take away from it is never to trust paper shares as fully as before. Look at the top precious metal mutual funds. Their drubbing is certainly worse than mine! People are reportedly redeeming their fund holdings, forcing fund managers to liquidate antyhing they can to meet their obligations, thus throwing out baby with the bath water. I remember this is what happened leading up to 2008 as well.
I still have my core positions, and I will continue to chip away at shares if or when they show some rational movement toward notions like “intrinsic value,” but from now on I will devote the majority of my new investing to bullion, thus taking advantage of the government-subsidized discount and helping the good folks at GATA to prove their thesis that the emperor has no clothes.
BTW I apologize for my rant a couple days ago.
Sometimes we need to vent!
You, my friend, don’t have to apologize for anything.
Big Al
I think…..
You will be “right” until Russia, China, India, etc. says your wrong. Sure, money flows. Wait until all those worthless USD’s coming “money flowing” back to the US.
Martin Armstrong sold his soul.Anything he says is laughable.
Even if so, Martin Armstrong’s interview on Financial Survival Network in the last week is still worth a listen. So is Jim Sinclair’s latest interview on KWN and Rick Rule’s interview linked from this site on a previous blog post.
However, none of them are going to give you the anwer on whether this is the bottom of the market! Just like us, they don’t know!
It’s easy to get information overload on these markets but basically, most of what happens is in the hands of politicians and central bankers and how much money they print.
Who would have thought in March 2009 that the Dow would make a new high by early 2013? WHo would have thought it a year ago? Well, Peter Grandich thought it and I think he said so on KEReport a long time ago.
The tide of sentiment has turned against gold significantly in recent months but it sometimes has a big rise when everyone is not watching, witness the late 2005 early 2006 run. I could ever firure out wat precipitated that rise at that particular time. It would not surprise me to see a 3-5 year sideways to down gold price either, although sentiment is bad at the moment and some kind of rally may be imminent. The relatively strong US dollar compared to the denominator currencies of the US dollar index (Euro, Yen and Pound) usn’t helping the dollar gold price. HOwever, we have seen strength in Yen gold and decent strength in Euro gold too, with new highs this year and last year respectively.
It was noticeable that speculation and positive sentime (a lot based on expectations of QE3) was rife on the bounce to nearly $1800 in September last year and the sentiment was giddy very quickly even with no sign of a new high. So maybe we are not quite washed out yet in this market.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY…that’s what next in GOLD AND SILVER…..If were going to get ANYTHING DECENT in GOLD AND SILVER it will only be in SEPT THRU DEC..IF AT ALL.
Al….I understand from reliable sources…..YOU sprang you back ,,moving all that silver from the condo to the house, while spring cleaning…..
buy when nobody likes…..sell, when everyone loves…….set on your hands between….uncle wally 1948
I am flabbergasted at the market manipulation from the US federal government and their corporate partners. The DJIA hits a new high – so precious metals must be laughable, correct? The price of gasoline/diesel at the pump is rising even as a barrel of crude oil stays below $100 – what is going on here? We have fake pink slime in our food or outright horsemeat substitution and smaller packaging – but there is no inflation?
My stock portfolio, heavy in precious metals (NEM, MVG, GORO, GFI, KGN), is doing terrible since the first week in February 2013. My energy stocks (Exxon & Duke Power) are doing much better. But I had to dump the coal stock because it floundered the entire year of 2012. Is that the answer? Only the stocks that the insiders & policymakers in Wash, D.C. invest in are going to be allowed to go up, and all the metals and things they hate are going to be suppressed for all time? Is that the new banana republic, a global mentality of political correctness defying reality for expediency? When does this political correctness break and reality takes over?
I’m “fully” invested – I added more to my portfolio the last week of February, only to see the stocks fall even more the first week of March. So I’m out of dry powder, and waiting for the rebound. But if this continues, how many junior precious metal companies are going to delist or be driven out of business, making investing in them for the long run worthless?
The strong companies ,,,the big boys have cash to operate…..the little jr.and explores have approximately….three months…,,,,The big boys are going to wait, and pick up on the cheap……So….MAR.APR..MAY….90 days and it is kaput ,,out of business, and the fed. is going to help them along…with helping the stock market,,in other segments, not mining……banking,,tech..ect…..So,,,the little miners,jr. and explores will be gone,and the Big Miners will be around,,,and the reserves will be discovered,or uncovered already and the big boys, go and get the reserves pennies on the dollars, thur bankruptcy…..This should not be a secrete,,,,that is the way it is played,,,,but, the PM MARKET IS NOT DEAD,,ONLY BEING REARRANGED…..So,,,,,this summer,,,is the turn around and not before…..of course bankruptcy will take some time, but, that gives the big boys time to reprice their proven assets,,,and that is just more money in the bank for the Big boy miners….REMEMBER,,,SUPPLY AND DEMAND, is not going away,,,,,and THE DEMAND from China for gold ,,,for the backing of the yuan, to replace the dollar, will intensify….CHINA WANTS CONTROL….and the gold is the way they will get CONTROL…..and this is not going away……and China wants and needs energy,and the photocell, made from silver…is not going away….the only thing that is going away is the WEAK HANDS….and those out of CASH………just my thinking…….OOTB….. HANG IN THERE AND do not be a casuality………
Jobs report is better then expected and maybe that’s what the conventional markets was suggesting. Gold is getting hit. It really appears that some of the stocks have further to fall and it’s not good to catch “falling knives”. It’ll now be interesting to see if good news signal a top for the conventional markets.
Just MOPE……..
PMs are going down because it is Friday. It gets knocked down every Friday,
I may be wrong but the juniors seem to be holding up within a precentage point. The big TSX mining index is up today. I called the bottom during the PDAC stuff and got lucky buying GPR at an RSI of 16. All I did was pick a producer out of the ones I follow with the lowest RSI.
G&S Mining Index on the TSX made a new low a few days ago but the RSI was 17. The previous low on Feb 20th drew an RSI of 6… yes 6. I have never seen an RSI that low on a going concern.
Dan
The Navistar Vehicle is a shame sham.
A decade ago I was following an upstart South Carolina company Force Protection.
It had trouble selling recreational vehicles/speed boats after 9-11.
They developed the V-shaped hull inspired by South African troop carriers.
The MRAP(Mine resistant ambush protected) vehicle were called Cougars and a huge improvement to the vulnerable Humvee and hastily up-armored Humvee.
A huge 3 of Iraqi veterans owe their lives to the technology when these vehicle encountered an IED.
When the bids were courted to replace the Humvee the Aberdeen proving grounds were impressed by the company’s “Cheetah” smaller version of the “Cougar” but in the end the
South Carolina non union company did not have a chance to win the business.
Navistar won the business in 2009 because the then young Obama admin made it not so clear the business was going to a Union work force.
Even though Force Protection lived up to its name providing superior troop protection… politics steered the vehicle business to a union workforce. Our troops pay to this day with inferior product.
The Big O’s approach is to create as much hate and discontent as possible while he destroys America from the inside. Why is there no filibuster asking why mine resistant armored vehicles are being put on the streets of America in the thousands while he is cutting TSA people at airports because of sequester,
It is time for PMs.
Dan
The rebound in gold (if it holds to the end of the day) is showing a definite bottoming.
It appears that the PMs are in strong hands that are waiting for the big breakout this year as Obama rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic. He might have to raise subsidies for Hollywood again to get the fairys touting his ideals again.
Dan
Dan, we’ll have to watch for the close in PMs but I especially appreciate their price movements today. It’s starting to look like the selling forces are exhausting themselves. The encouraging thing about the stocks are that I feel we’re going to have plenty of time to get into them since once the momentum indicators go neutral it’ll be the signal to buy. Also interesting is the Dow’s response to the “good” job’s report. It’s come way off the high and maybe good news will become bad news for the conventional markets. Watch the dollar—-if it stagnates up here at resistance, it’s a very positive signal.
I am getting ahead of myself but I smell something in the air that the second term of Obama will not be the smooth ride he got in his first term.
Something has changed because the PM stocks would never have held up this well and IMHO I think that is what triggered gold higher is that these stocks did not follow the piper this time. What is Soros up to now?
Dan
Good pickup—-if the 12 day MA on the MACD starts to separate from the 26 day MA toward 0 it’ll be a positive sign—in all probability the weekly MACD will then move sideways next week and that would be positive. Also positive would be if gold closes the week over yesterday’s close.
Dan, I might add that the silver MACD looks a lot more positive then the gold MACD.
Man, it feels so good after I quit banging my head against the wall. (;-/
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/20130308a.html
Dan
That COT report is huge and probably just another piece to the puzzle. Next week should see a little more sideways motion first of the week and then watch for the end of the week into the next week. Of course it could happen earlier.
Thanks again richard, I could have saved quite a bit listening to you a few months ago when I bought some poorly thought out options. May try for some more coming up here though.
Dan
The “Zero Hour” Scenario
By Addison Wiggin | 03/08/13
“Possession is nine-tenths of the law” —from a Scottish expression
It’s a Sunday night. October 2013. Parents are making sure the kids’ homework is done. Football fans are settling in for the night’s NFL matchup. Reigning champs, Baltimore, are about to lose.
And all hell is breaking loose in the precious metals markets.
Moments before electronic trading opened at 6 p.m. EDT, Commodity Exchange Inc. — the Comex — announced it would settle a large gold contract in cash and not gold. To be blunt about it, the Comex has defaulted on its contract. Suddenly, everyone else with a gold contract — or a silver contract — started to wonder if they’d be next to get stiffed.
Gold, which ended that autumn week at $1,715 an ounce, starts gyrating wildly… but mostly up. By Monday morning, it’s up past $1,800.
But good luck trying to get that price — or anything near it — at a coin shop or online dealer. Under normal circumstances, a $1,800 spot gold price would mean U.S. Gold Eagles around $1,890 — a 5% premium. But on this day, buyers — desperate to get their hands on actual, physical metal because trust in the system is breaking down — have driven the price far above $2,000.
This is “zero hour” — the day you can mark on a calendar when the price of real metal breaks away forever from the quoted price on CNBC’s ticker. It’s the day you’ll be grateful you hold real metal and not a proxy like the GLD exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Sound far-fetched? Today, we’ll show you why it’s inevitable…
Read on at the Daily Reckoning…..
http://dailyreckoning.com/the-zero-hour-scenario/
Read more: The “Zero Hour” Scenario http://dailyreckoning.com/the-zero-hour-scenario/#ixzz2My7wKcPg
$2900 $3000????? in which lifetime Roger??? you goldbugs have been calling for $2000 for over 3 years…I am impressed with your ability to be wrong over and over and keep shouting the same thing…Wesdome is a producer and they are not doing well and either are many other producers. The Central banks or Cartel or wall street or whoever…are pushing these businesses to bankruptcy so then only the HUGE MAJORS will pick them up for nothing as for the everyday shareholder will make NOTHING.
Just anectdotal but;
I sense a tidal change has hit the controlling elite. They got in a rush to push their agenda before… dah, dah, duh daaahhhh! the 100 year anniversary of the Fed. IMHO this anniversary will draw the scrutiny of all the concerned investors around the world. Let us hope the internet is not shut down before this happens.
Skipping over the “Go away in May” phenomena would be a great way to trap the gold bugs by the elite to buy their stocks on the cheap.
The Russians are coming again…
Have a nice day to all(;-D
Dan
Just a question? What happened to the USE DEBT CEILING???? I guess they decided it’s an non issue….ANOTHER GOLDBUG PREDICTION THAT WAS GOING TO CAUSE GOLD TO SKYROCKET…oops wrong again.
Folks, go to stockcharts.com and look at a plot of BPGM
That is a plot of bullish percentage of gold miners.
I have NEVER seen such a mood of pessimism in any industry.
It’s about 6. It could go to 0.
OOps, BPGDM
Mind you, miners tend to be a pessimistic bunch, even when the good times roll there’s 25% of them that are moaning minnies. But to have only 3.33% optimistic at a time, when it IS possible to mine at a profit is amazing. Someones been inhaling too much dust! Or drinking too much tequila
Who to believe?
The Greek government came out with a statement yesterday was that inflation was running at a monthly rate of 0.1%
Well, I know I only visit Greece once a year or so, but let me tell you you year over year food prices are up about 25%)
Moody has down-graded Italian debt to a BBB+ rating, and what happens? Interest rates drop!
Makes no sense to me. The odds of getting paid back (in anything meaningful) if you hold a 20 year bond to maturity are pretty low if you ask me!
Markets are not operating in a normal, sane mode.
Maybe the FED..bought the BBB bonds,,,,what do they care what the rating is…..all the bankers are crooks…..
My mining stocks are down some 25%. I own aurff, exk,, tgd, rtraf, and a few others. I, however, have no plans to sell. My sense is that all these stocks will have there day later in 2013. The sentiment is currently focused on the stock market. I sense, that this market is close to a top. We could then witness slv, gld, and the mining stocks reaching new highs. Wait and watch is my advice.
Goldman Sachs says the commodities sector is oversold and now is the time to re-enter. We agree but do so with caution. PM stock buyers could watch for higher moves in gold and silver first. Jimmy Rogers announced in another venue this morning the crash is for the 4th quarter just as we have been reporting for months.
Roger Wiegand
traderrog@comcast.net
http://www.wavelengthpublishing.com
Goldman Sachs says the commodities sector is oversold and now is the time to re-enter. We agree but do so with caution. PM stock buyers could watch for higher moves in gold and silver first. Jimmy Rogers announced in another venue this morning the crash is for the 4th quarter just as we have been reporting for months.
Roger Wiegand http://www.wavelengthpublishing.com
Williams on Mcalvany is good.