Dave Erfle – Junior Gold and Silver Stocks: Snapback Rally, Valuation Gaps, and Strategic M&A
Dave Erfle, Editor of Junior Miner Junky, returns to share his outlook on the quick rebound in gold and silver stocks. After a sharp but short-lived correction, quality mining equities have staged a swift and powerful comeback, outpacing major indices and defying the broader market weakness.
We start by discussing the recent volatility and investor psychology around gold equities. Dave explains why holding through the shakeout rewarded conviction and how the GDX and GDXJ bounced off key moving averages.
Dave outlines how this rebound was driven by technical setups and extreme undervaluation relative to metal prices, especially gold, which remains close to record highs. We also examine silver’s massive reversal and how thin positioning created the perfect setup for a rally.
The conversation then shifts to positioning and sector rotation, with Dave noting how capital is now flowing into undervalued juniors. He shares his approach to managing risk and capital rotation, explaining how he evaluates which juniors have upside and which are weighed down by dilution or permitting risk.
We also explore standout examples of strategic M&A. Discovery Silver’s acquisition of the Porcupine complex is cited as a transformational shift from optionality to production. Similarly, Endeavour Silver’s deal in Peru and upcoming Terronera production growth highlights the transformation in select stocks. Dave emphasizes the importance of looking ahead and how valuations are driven by forward expectations, not past results.
Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website to learn more about Dave’s investment letter.
If that’s stuck it looks like a bullish stuck since it’s consolidating above that level with 3 daily closes so far.
https://schrts.co/hfjHyRYN
https://www.fibonomics.com/2025/04/gdx-put-option-pricing.html
GDX : Put Option Pricing : Low Buy Wednesday?
Jerry this is for you, from Stewart Thomson. “A surge through the $3245 high is increasingly probable. Interestingly, that’s great news for silver bugs, because I expect their mighty metal to take the lead baton from gold… as the upside breakout occurs.” LOL! DT 🤣🤣🤣
Thanks DT…………………
India might help you out on the SILVER…..
OOTB Jerry
16 hours ago
By Rajeev Yahaswal
Hindustan Times, New Delhi
Friday, April 11, 2025
NEW DELHI — India is considering importing gold and other high-value items, including silver, platinum,
https://www.tradingview.com/x/itR1YRkA/
GOLD : Three Drives Complete?
Gold futures are now above $3,300. (currently at $3,314).
Please remind me of what price level it is where we’re all supposed to get excited.
Initially I thought it was supposed to be when gold took out the $1923 high from 2011.
Then narrative was that we just needed to see gold break the $2089 post-pandemic spike peak from 2020.
Then it was for sure that a move above $2,100 would bring in all the generalists and the party would begin… but then that wasn’t enough of a break above the $2089,so that target then morphed to be a move above $2,200. Yeah… that should do it….
Then it was $2,500 and we joked when that level was achieved “What is it going to take – $3,000 gold?”
Then we got to $3,000 gold, and while there is some more enthusiasm in the space, it is nothing like what resource investors would have expected a half dozen years back for when we finally got to this moment.
Lately gold futures have crept up to $3,100, $3,200 and now $3,300 and most resource forums and media outlets are not really that excited and they are miles away from any type of mania. No rocket ship emojis that we are heading to the moon, and no pictures of Lambos.
>> On one level that is encouraging, because it hasn’t been anything like a blow-off top. However, on another level, it is starting to get concerning that we have been seeing a perfect storm for gold for years and yet the gold stocks are nowhere near where people imagined they’d be.
So, is it going to take $4,000 gold? 😉
–> (GDXJ) hasn’t even taken out it’s 2020 peak at $65.95 yet on this latest move higher (even though the gold price has tacked on $1,200 and producer margins are the biggest they’ve ever been in history).
>> The GDXJ would have to nearly triple to get back up to it’s all-time high at $179 when gold was considerably lower and so were the margins. Again… we’re at $3,300 gold…. “Is there anybody out there?”
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1jvulc7-GDXJ%206-year%20daily%20chart.JPG
Gold futures just hit a peak of $3,333 and then reversed back down to $3,308.
Imagine the person that got the trade filled at 3333 – Cosmic!
Once people get excited it’s time to sell Ex….let the stealth mode continue…..and heaven forbid there is a BUY BUY BUY call here by anyone.
Well, I hear ya, but it is usually when people start believing it can never stop going up, and it is “to the moon” that it’s time to sell. Just a little genuine excitement for $3,300 gold prices and what that means for the producers of gold should be in order… It’s just surprising that we aren’t seeing overly bullish proclamations coming out of the woodwork, like in other cycles.
Newfound Gold up 41% in the last 7+ trading days. I wonder if Eric’s been buying, I hope so.
Gotta love it! I have also been buying DV Dolly Varden it has gone up 25% in the same period. DT
One year chart looks terrible…. $4 …. now $1…. JMO
I looked at this a couple of years ago , only because Sprott hopped into it
You can’t hold these stocks you must treat them like trading cards, if you buy and hold you lose. DT
I added NFGC @ $1.22, $1.10 and $.98, 400, 600 and 800, but I’m still under water on the $1.50- $1.84 like 3000 shares. Hope to add to DVS under $2.60
Scorpio Gold, SGN, coming out of the grave…
We actually just spoke with Scorpio Gold and will be posting that interview soon.
Looking forward to it, I’ve had a little bit of this stock for years.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/exJ67qkF/
SILVER : Stuck At 61.8%