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Dave Erfle – Q1 Gold Surge, Miner Margins, Why Have Stocks Lagged For 20 Years?

Cory
April 1, 2025

 

Dave Erfle, Editor of the Junior Miner Junky joins us to break down a remarkable Q1 for the precious metals sector – and what it could signal for the quarters ahead.

 

Key discussion highlights:

 

  • Gold’s record-breaking quarter: Gold posted its best quarterly performance in 39 years, closing Q1 up ~17%, while major mining ETFs like GDX surged ~35%, far outpacing broader market indices that struggled through their worst Q1 since 2022.

  • Profit margins hit historic highs: Gold producers saw margin expansion with some like Agnico Eagle achieving all-in sustaining costs below $1,300/oz vs. gold prices nearing $2,900/oz.

  • Investor capital still favoring gold ETFs over miners: Despite strong performance, Dave notes generalist investors are still hesitant to rotate into mining stocks, preferring the simplicity and perceived safety of gold ETFs. Low volumes in GDX/GDXJ reinforce that this trend hasn’t fully shifted.

  • Structural issues in gold equity performance: The launch of ETFs like GDX and GDXJ coincided with the sector’s long-term underperformance vs. the gold price. Outside of short bursts in 2008, 2016, and 2020, gold stocks have lagged behind, prompting the question: can the trend reverse?

  • Outlook for retail interest and sector rotation: Dave emphasizes that a return of retail investors and increased fund allocation are key to sustaining the rally in miners. With the broader market weakening, he sees a growing opportunity for rotation — but it hasn’t materialized in full force yet.

Silver’s critical level and broader sector leverage: Silver needs to break and hold above $35/oz to ignite the next leg up, particularly for silver equities and high-beta junior miners. Until then, performance will likely remain selective and stock-specific.

 

Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website to learn more about Dave’s investment letter. 

Discussion
1 Comment
    Apr 02, 2025 02:38 AM

    How to View Eric Sprott’s Mining Investments: Junior Mining Insights with Bill Powers & Brian Leni

    Mining Stock Education – April 1, 2025

    Bill Powers and Brian Leni offer junior mining insights about Eric Sprott’s investments, New Found Gold Corp., overpaid CEOs, and much more in this MSE episode. Bill and Brian share why they both passed on investing in $NFG back in 2020. They discuss the ideal junior mining CEO profile and the pros and cons of a junior hiring a lead executive from a larger miner. Brian offers some of his current thoughts on portfolio allocation and exit strategy. Finally, they discuss whether late-stage developers must posture as if they are going to build the mine to receive the proper valuation from the market.

    0:00 Introduction
    0:53 New Found Gold $NFG
    5:58 Promotion
    12:06 Viewing Eric Sprott’s investments
    16:21 CEOs in too many deals
    20:44 Corp background CEO: pros & cons
    26:49 Portfolio allocation
    34:22 Exit strategies
    39:59 Must developers posture as mine builders?

    https://youtu.be/fpcXPoLLN9g

    Reply

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