Craig Hemke – Gold’s Run to $3,150 and Why Selective Stock Picking Is Key
Gold just closed Q1 over $3,100, up nearly 20% year-to-date, marking one of the strongest quarterly performances in recent memory.
Craig Hemke, editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to break down what’s driving this strength and why the equities haven’t fully caught up.
The GDX and GDXJ ETFs continue to lag, weighed down by large-cap underperformers like Newmont and Barrick. However, many individual gold and silver stocks have delivered outsized gains. Craig emphasizes this is a stock picker’s market, not a time to rely on passive ETFs.
We also discuss:
- How Q1 earnings could finally spotlight the widened margins across producers.
- The divergence between precious metals and broad markets (with the S&P down ~10% since February).
- Why silver’s lag is mostly due to heavy futures positioning, despite strong physical demand.
- Whether gold’s parabolic move requires a healthy pause—or if momentum will keep building.
It was close but the same is true of its monthly close…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=M&yr=19&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36785393104&a=1298597629&r=1743461268326&cmd=print
Copper got stuffed 34 cents to finish precisely at a fork resistance that spans many years.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54649953592&a=1479597136&r=1743460857095&cmd=print
But based on the quarterly chart that’s quite alright…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=Q&yr=30&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81745226916&a=1936428605&r=1743461382526&cmd=print
I would not be a buyer of GDX here but that doesn’t mean it can’t go higher.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93895462210&a=1942489185
The S&P finished the month technically ugly and down almost 14%…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=35&mn=11&dy=0&id=t5237508850c&a=1104681131&r=1743462013698&cmd=print
Crashes are rare but this setup has potential:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=19&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76460989584&a=1768281310&r=1743462185613&cmd=print
Bad news for the stock market is good news for the gold/silver miners.
Quarterly Nasdaq 100 vs Gold:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX%3A%24GOLD&p=Q&yr=40&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44680047671&a=1298982914&r=1743462578863&cmd=print
A significant bounce is coming and maybe soon but it won’t restore the bull market.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p64230203689&a=1658870970
Quarterly NYSE Composite vs Gold (currently 44% off its 2018 high and 77% off its 2001 high):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA%3A%24GOLD&p=Q&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83999649386&a=1437190030&r=1743463308791&cmd=print
Dow:Gold also looks very bad and just had its lowest quarterly close in almost 11 years.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24GOLD&p=Q&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95508306407&a=954530030&r=1743463827306&cmd=print
INTC is very interesting and might hold clues for the rest of the market. Has it been carving out a major low at major support for the last year or is that a consolidation before another serious plunge?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65352784019&a=1889425173&r=1743464118913&cmd=print
Gotta love this one; since making its biggest killing in 2021, PFE is down more than 50%.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PFE&p=Q&yr=45&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05144527025&a=1103203226&r=1743465328823&cmd=print
The S&P has been bearish versus silver for the last 5 years from a quarterly perspective but now it’s the most bearish it’s been since 2001.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24SILVER&p=Q&yr=30&mn=0&dy=0&id=t9270294842c&a=1312471728&r=1743468147930&cmd=print
The HUI has secured its highest quarterly close since 2012…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=Q&yr=30&mn=0&dy=0&id=t0820437329c&a=1868935232&r=1743461097575&cmd=print